Reliability

Prepared By
Dr. M. S. Memon
Department of Industrial Engineering and Management
Mehran University of Engineering and Technology
Jamshoro, Sindh, Pakistan

https://msmemon.wordpress.com/scmlab/
 INTRODUCTION

• Reliability is a measure of the quality of the product over the

long run.
• In here the concept of reliability is an extended time period over
which the expected operation of the product is considered; that
is, we expect the product will function according to certain
expectations over a stipulated period of time.
 INTRODUCTION

• To ensure customer satisfaction in the performance phase, we

address measures to improve reliability in the design phase.
• The complex nature of products requires many components in their
construction; thus, we need to be able to calculate system reliability.
• With the customer and warranty costs in mind, we must know the
chances of successful operation of the product for at least a certain
stipulated period of time.
• Such information helps the manufacturer to select the parameters of
a warranty policy.
 RELIABILITY

• Reliability is the probability of a product performing its intended

function for a stated period of time under certain specified
conditions.
• Four aspects of reliability are apparent from this definition.
– First, reliability is a probability-related concept; the numerical value of this
probability is between 0 and 1.
– Second, the functional performance of the product has to meet certain
stipulations. Product design will usually ensure development of a product
that meets or exceeds the stipulated requirements. For example, if the
breaking strength of a nylon cord is expected to be 1000 kg, then in its
operational phase/the cord must be able to bear weights of 1000 kg or more.
 RELIABILITY

– Third, reliability implies successful operation over a certain period of

time. Although no product is expected to last forever, the time
requirement ensures satisfactory performance over at least a minimal
stated period (say, two years).
– Fourth, operating or environmental conditions under which product
use takes place are specified.
LIFE-CYCLE CURVE AND PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN MODELING
RELIABILITY

• Most products go through three distinct phases from product

inception to wear-out.
• Figure 11-1 shows a typical life-cycle curve for which the
failure rate ë is plotted as a function of time.
• This curve is often referred to as the bathtub curve; it consists
of the debugging phase, the chance-failure phase, and the wear-
out phase.
LIFE-CYCLE CURVE AND PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN MODELING
RELIABILITY
LIFE-CYCLE CURVE AND PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN MODELING
RELIABILITY

• The debugging phase, also known as the infant-mortality phase,

exhibits a drop in the failure rate as initial problems identified
during prototype testing are ironed out.
• The chance-failure phase, between times t1 and t2, is then
encountered; failures occur randomly and independently. This
phase, in which the failure rate is constant, typically represents the
useful life of the product.
• Following this is the wear-out phase, in which an increase in the
failure rate is observed. Here, at the end of their useful life, parts
age and wear out.
 Probability Distributions to Model Failure Rate

• Exponential Distribution
• The life-cycle curve of Figure 11-1 shows the variation of the
failure rate as a function of time. For the chance-failure phase,
which represents the useful life of the product, the failure rate is
constant.
• As a result, the exponential distribution can be used to
describe the time to failure of the product for this phase.
 Probability Distributions to Model Failure Rate

• the exponential distribution was shown to have a probability density function

given by

where λ denotes the failure rate.

• The mean time to failure (MTTF) for the exponential distribution is given as

• Thus, if the failure rate is constant, the mean time to failure is the reciprocal of
the failure rate. For repairable equipment, this is also equal to the mean time
between failures (MTBF).
 Probability Distributions to Model Failure Rate

• There will be a difference between MTBF and MTTF only if

there is a significant repair or replacement time upon failure of
the product.
• The reliability at time t, R(t), is the probability of the product
lasting up to at least time t. It is given by

where F(t) represents the cumulative distribution function at time

t.
 Probability Distributions to Model Failure Rate

• Figure 11-2 shows the reliability

function, R(t), for the exponential
failure distribution.
• At time 0, the reliability is 1, as it
should be. Reliability decreases
exponentially with time.
• In general, the failure-rate
function r(t) is given by the ratio
of the time-to-failure probability
density function to the reliability
function.
• We have
FIGURE 11-2 Reliability function for the
exponential time-to-failure distribution.
 Example 1

• An amplifier has an exponential time-to-failure distribution

with a failure rate of 8% per 1000 hours.
• What is the reliability of the amplifier at 5000hours? Find the
mean time to failure.
Example 1 - Solution
 Example 2

• What is the highest failure rate for a product if it is to have a

probability of survival (i.e., successful operation) of 95% at
4000 hours? Assume that the time to failure follows an
exponential distribution.
Example 2 - Solution
 Availability

• The availability of a system at time t is the probability that the

system will be up and running at time t.
• To improve availability, maintenance procedures are
incorporated, which may include periodic or preventive
maintenance or condition-based maintenance. An availability
index is defined as
 Availability

• For a steady-state system, denoting the mean time to repair

(MTTR) to include all the various components of downtime, we
have

• In the situation when the time-to-failure distribution is

exponential (with a failure rate λ) and the time-to-repair
distribution is also exponential (with a repair rate μ), the
availability is given by μ/(λ + μ).
 SYSTEM RELIABILITY

• Most products are made up of a number of components. The reliability of

each component and the configuration of the system consisting of these
components determines the system reliability (i.e., the reliability of the
product).
• Although product design, manufacture, and maintenance influence
reliability, improving reliability is largely the domain of design.
• One common approach for increasing the reliability of the system is
through redundance in design, which is usually achieved by placing
components in parallel: As long as one component operates, the system
operates.
• Here we demonstrate how to compute system reliability for systems that
have components in series, in parallel, or both.
 Systems with Components in Series

• Figure shows a system with three components

(A, B, and C) in series. For the system to
operate, each component must operate. It is
assumed that the components operate
independent of each other (i.e., the failure of one A B C
component has no influence on the failure of any
other component).
• In general, if there are n components in series, FIGURE:
System with components in
where the reliability of the ith component is series.
denoted by Ri, the system reliability is
 Example 3

• A module of a satellite monitoring system has 500 components in series.

The reliability of each component is 0.999. Find the reliability of the
module. If the number of components in series is reduced to 200, what is
the reliability of the module?
 Systems with Components in Series

• Use of the Exponential Model If the system components can be

assumed to have a time to failure given by the exponential
distribution and each component has a constant failure rate, we
can compute the system reliability, failure rate, and mean time
to failure.
• As noted earlier, when the components are in the chance-failure
phase, the assumption of a constant failure rate should be
justified.
 Systems with Components in Series

• Suppose that the system has n components in series, each with

exponentially distributed time-to-failure with failure rates λ1, λ2, … λn . The
system reliability is found as the product of the component reliabilities:

• implies that the time to failure of the system is exponentially distributed

with an equivalent failure rate of σ𝑛𝑖=1 𝜆𝑖 . Thus, if each component that fails
is replaced immediately by another that has the same failure rate, the mean
time to failure for the system is given by
 Systems with Components in Series

• When all components in series have an identical failure rate,

say λ, the MTTF for the system is given by
 Example 4
• The automatic focus unit of a television camera has 10
components in series. Each component has an exponential time-
to-failure distribution with a constant failure rate of 0.05 per
4000 hours. What is the reliability of each component after
2000 hours of operation? Find the reliability of the automatic
focus unit for 2000 hours of operation. What is its mean time-
to-failure?
Example 4
 Example 5
• Refer to Example 4 concerning the automatic focus unit of a
television camera, which has 10 similar components in series. It
is desired for the focus unit to have a reliability of 0.95 after
2000 hours of operation. What would be the mean time to
failure of the individual components?
Example 5
 Systems with Components in Parallel
• System reliability can be improved by placing
components in parallel. The components are A
redundant; the system operates as long as at
least one of the components operates. The only
time the system fails is when all the parallel B
components fail.
• Figure demonstrates an example of a system C
with three components (A, B, and C) in
parallel.
• All components are assumed to operate
simultaneously.
 Systems with Components in Parallel
• Suppose that we have n components in parallel, with the
reliability of the ith component denoted by Ri, i=1, 2, ..., n.
• Assuming that the components operate randomly and
independently of each other, the probability of failure of each
component is given by Fi = 1- Ri. Now, the system fails only if
all the components fail. Thus, the probability of system failure
is
 Systems with Components in Parallel
• Thus, the probability of system failure is
 Systems with Components in Parallel
• Use of the Exponential Model If the time to failure of each
component can be modeled by the exponential distribution, each
with a constant failure rate λi, i= 1, ..., n, the system reliability,
assuming independence of component operation, is given by

• In the special case where all components have the same failure rate
λ, the system reliability is given by
 Systems with Components in Parallel
• the mean time to failure for the system with n identical
components in parallel, assuming that each failed component is
immediately replaced by an identical component, is given by
 Example 6
• Find the reliability of the system shown with three components (A, B, and
C) in parallel. The reliabilities of A, B, and C are 0.95, 0.92, and 0.90,
respectively.

• Note that the system reliability is much higher than that of the individual
components. Designers can increase system reliability by placing more
components in parallel, but the cost of the additional components
necessitates a trade-off between the two objectives.
 Example 7
• For the system shown in Figure, determine the
system reliability for 2000 hours of operation, A
and find the mean time to failure.
• Assume that all three components have an
B
identical time-to-failure distribution that is
exponential, with a constant failure rate of
0.0005/ hour. C
• What is the mean time to failure of each
component? If it is desired for the system to
have a mean time to failure of 4000 hours,
what should the mean time to failure be for
each component?
 Example 7

• By placing three identical components in parallel, the system MTTF has been increased by
about 83.3%.
Example 7
 Systems with Components in Series and in Parallel

• Complex systems often consist of components that are both in

series and in parallel.
• Reliability calculations are based on the concepts discussed
previously, assuming that the components operate
independently.