Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
(2009-2010)
INFLATION
in
day to day life
DECLARATION
• Chapters:
Chapter 1: Inflation – Definition
Chapter 2: Forms of Inflations
Chapter 3: Inflation – How is it measured?
Chapter 4: Inflation – How is it caused?
Chapter 5: Problems due to inflation
Chapter 6: Methods to control Inflation
Chapter 7: Hyperinflation, Disinflation and
Deflation
• Problem Analysis
a) Questionnaire to consumers
b) Questionnaire to traders
Inflation can be defined as a rise in the general price level and therefore
a fall in the value of money. Inflation occurs when the amount of buying
power is higher than the output of goods and services. Inflation also
occurs when the amount of money exceeds the amount of goods and
services available. As to whether the fall in the value of money will
affect the functions of money depends on the degree of the fall.
Basically, refers to an increase in the supply of currency or credit
relative to the availability of goods and services, resulting in higher
prices.
The term inflation may also be used to describe the rising level of prices in a
narrow set of assets, goods or services within the economy, such as commodities
(which include food, fuel, metals), financial assets (such as stocks, bonds and real
estate), and services (such as entertainment and health care).
The impact of inflation is that, inflation makes rich richer and poor
poorer.
Economists generally agree that high rates of inflation and hyperinflation are
caused by an excessive growth of money supply. But low or moderate inflation
may be attributed to fluctuations in real demand for goods and services, or changes
in available supplies such as during scarcities. However, the consensus view is
that a long sustained period of inflation is caused by money supply growing faster
than the rate of economic growth.
− Demand-pull Inflation
− Cost push Inflation
− Monetary inflation
− Structural inflation
− Imported inflation
The increase in demand is created from an increase in other areas, such as the
supply of money, the increase of wages which would then give rise in disposable
income, and once the consumers have more disposal income this would lead to
aggregate spending.
When wages are increased, this causes the business owner to in turn increase the
price of final goods and services which would be passed onto the consumers and
the same consumers are also the employees. As a result of the increase in prices for
final goods and services the employees realize that their income is insufficient to
meet their standard of living because the basic cost of living has increased. The
trade unions then act as the mediator for the employees and negotiate better wages
and conditions of employment. If the negotiations are successful and the
employees are given the requested wage increase this would further affect the
prices of goods and services and invariably affected.
On the other hand, when firms attempt to increase their profit margins by making
the prices more responsive to supply of a good or service instead of the demand for
that said good or service. This is usually done regardless to the state of the
economy. This can be seen in monopolistic economies where the firm is the only
supplier or by entrepreneurs that are seeking a larger profit for their own self
interests.
When a dollar is worth less because the supply of dollars has increased, all
businesses are forced to raise prices just to get the same value for their products.
Structural inflation
Planned inflation that is caused by a government's monetary policy is called
structural inflation. This type of inflation is not caused by the excess of demand or
supply but is built into an economy due to the government’s monetary policy.
Food being the key wage-good, an increase in its price tends to raise other prices as
well. Therefore, some economists consider food prices to be the major factor,
which leads to inflation in the developing economies.
Imported inflation
Another type of inflation is imported inflation. This occurs when the inflation of
goods and services from foreign countries that are experiencing inflation are
imported and the increase in prices for that imported good or service will directly
affect the cost of living. Another way imported inflation can add to our inflation
rate is when overseas firms increase their prices and we pay more for our goods
increasing our own inflation.
Inflation – How is it measured?
Chapter
3
The rate of inflation is high if the prices are rising by 7%-8% or more and
low if the prices are rising at 2%-3%. India uses the Wholesale Price Index (WPI)
to calculate and then decide the inflation rate in the economy.
Calculation:
I. WPI
The wholesale price index consists of over 2,400 commodities. The indicator
tracks the price movement of each commodity individually. Based on this
individual movement, the WPI is determined through the averaging principle.
In this method, a set of 435 commodities and their price changes are used for
the calculation. The selected commodities are supposed to represent various strata
of the economy and are supposed to give a comprehensive WPI value for the
economy.
WPI is calculated on a base year and WPI for the base year is assumed to be 100.
To show the calculation, let’s assume the base year to be 1970. The data of
wholesale prices of all the 435 commodities in the base year and the time for which
WPI is to be calculated is gathered.
Let's calculate WPI for the year 1980 for a particular commodity, say wheat.
Assume that the price of a kilogram of wheat in 1970 = Rs 5.75 and in 1980 = Rs
6.10
Since WPI for the base year is assumed as 100, WPI for 1980 will become 100 +
6.09 = 106.09.
In this way individual WPI values for the remaining 434 commodities are
calculated and then the weighted average of individual WPI figures are found out
to arrive at the overall Wholesale Price Index. Commodities are given weight-age
depending upon its influence in the economy.
For example, WPI on Jan 1st 1980 is 106.09 and WPI of Jan 1st 1981 is 109.72
then inflation rate for the year 1981 is,
(109.72 – 106.09)/106.09 x 100 = 3.42% and we say the inflation rate for the year
1981 is 3.42%.
Since WPI figures are available every week, inflation for a particular week (which
usually means inflation for a period of one year ended on the given week) is
calculated based on the above method using WPI of the given week and WPI of the
week one year before. This is how we get weekly inflation rates in India.
Inflation – How is it caused?
Chapter
4
When the government of a country print currency in excess the prices of products
increase to balance with the increase in currency, this also leads to inflation.
Increase in production and labor costs, have a direct impact on the price of the
final product, resulting in inflation.
When countries borrow money, they have to cope with the interest burden. This
interest burden results in inflation.
Demands pull inflation, wherein the economy demands more goods and services
than what is produced.
The mortgage crisis of 2007 in USA could best illustrate the ill effects of
inflation. Housing prices increases substantially from 2002 onwards, resulting
in a dramatic decrease in demand.
Inflation can create major problems in the economy. Price increase can worsen
the poverty affecting low income household.
The producers would not be able to control the cost of raw material and labor
and hence the price of the final product. This could result in less profit or in
some extreme case no profit, forcing them out of business.
Uncertainty would force people to withdraw money from the bank and convert
it into product with long lasting value like gold, artifacts.
6
Chapter
Methods to control inflation
Monetary Policy
Inflation is primarily a monetary phenomenon. Hence, the most logical solution to
check inflation is to check the flow of money supply by devising appropriate
monetary policy and carefully implementing such measures. To control inflation, it
is necessary to control total expenditures because under conditions of full
employment, increase in total expenditures will be reflected in a general rise in
prices, that is, inflation. Monetary policy is used to control inflation and is based
on the assumption that a rise in prices is due to excess of monetary demand for
goods and services by the consumers/households e because easy bank credit is
available to them. Monetary policy, thus, pertains to banking and credit availability
of loans to firms and households, interest rates, public debt and its management,
and the monetary standard. Monetary management is aimed at the commercial
banking systems, and through this action, its effects are primarily felt in the
economy as a whole. By directly affecting the volume of cash reserves of the
banks, can regulate the supply of money and credit in the economy, thereby
influencing the structure of interest rates and the availability of credit. Both these,
factors affect the components of aggregate demand and the flow of expenditure in
the economy.
The central bank’s monetary management methods, the devices for decreasing or
increasing the supply of money and credit for monetary stability is called monetary
policy. Central banks generally use the three quantitative measures to control the
volume of credit in an economy, namely:
It should be noted that the impression that the rate of spending can be controlled
rigorously by the contraction of credit or money supply is wrong in the context of
modern economic societies. In modern community, tangible, wealth is typically
represented by claims in the form of securities, bonds, etc., or near moneys, as they
are called. Such near moneys are highly liquid assets, and they are very close to
being money. They increase the general liquidity of the economy. In these
circumstances, it is not so simple to control the rate of spending or total outlays
merely by controlling the quantity of money. Thus, there is no immediate and
direct relationship between money supply and the price level, as is normally
conceived by the traditional quantity theories.
Fiscal measures
Fiscal policy is another type of budgetary policy in relation to taxation, public
borrowing, and public expenditure. To curve the effects of inflation and changes in
the total expenditure, fiscal measures would have to be implemented which
involves an increase in taxation and decrease in government spending. During
inflationary periods the government is supposed to counteract an increase in
private spending. It can be cleared noted that during a period of full employment
inflation, the aggregate demand in relation to the limited supply of goods and
services is reduced to the extent that government expenditures are shortened.
In some instances, tax policy has been directed towards restricting demand without
restricting level of production. For example, excise duties or sales tax on various
commodities may take away the buying power from the consumer goods market
without discouraging the level of production. However, some economists point out
that this is not a correct way of combating inflation because it may lead to a
regressive status within the economy.
As a result, this may lead to a further rise in prices of goods and services, and
inflation can spread from one sector of the economy to another and from one type
of goods and services to another.
Furthermore, the effects of a large deficit budget, which is mainly responsible for
inflation, can be partially offset by covering the deficit through public borrowings.
It should be noted that it is only government borrowing from non-bank lenders that
has a disinflationary effect. In addition, public debt may be managed in such a way
that the supply of money in the country may be controlled. The government should
avoid paying back any of its past loans during inflationary periods, in order to
prevent an increase in the circulation of money. Anti-inflationary debt management
also includes cancellation of public debt held by the central bank out of a
budgetary surplus.
Fiscal policy by itself may not be very effective in combating inflation; therefore a
combination of fiscal and monetary tools can work together in achieving the
desired outcome.
Such regulatory measures involve the use of direct control on prices and rationing
of scarce goods. The function of price control is a fix a legal ceiling, beyond which
prices of particular goods may not increase. When ceiling prices are fixed and
enforced, it means prices are not allowed to rise further and so, inflation is
suppressed.
Under price control, producers cannot raise the price beyond a specified level, even
though there may be a pressure of excessive demand forcing it up. For example,
during wartimes, price control was used to suppress inflation.
On the other hand, restrictions on imports may also help to increase supplies of
essential commodities and ease the inflationary pressure. However, this is possible
only to a limited extent, depending upon the balance of payments situation.
Similarly, exports may also be reduced in an effort to increase the availability of
the domestic supply of essential commodities so that inflation is eased. But a
country with a deficit balance of payments cannot dare to cut exports and increase
imports, because the remedy will be worse than the disease itself.
In overpopulated countries like India, it is also essential to check the growth of the
population through an effective family planning programme, because this will help
in reducing the increasing pressure on the general demand for goods and services.
Again, the supply of real goods should be increased by producing more. Without
increasing production, inflation just cannot be controlled.
Some economists have even suggested indexing in order to minimise certain ill-
effects of inflation. Indexing refers to monetary corrections through periodic
adjustments in money incomes of the people and in the values of financial assets
such as savings deposits, which are held by them in relation to the degrees of price
rise. Basically, if the annual price were to rise to 20%, the money incomes and
values of financial assets are enhanced by 20%, under the system of indexing.
Hyperinflation, Disinflation and Deflation
Chapter
7
Hyperinflation, Disinflation and Deflation are the three important terms coming in
the subject of inflation. Even though they look similar, in economic terms they
represent three different phenomenons.
Hyperinflation
It is an out of control inflation were prices are increasing rapidly in an alarming
rate as a currency losses its value.
Most economists define hyperinflation as “an inflationary cycle without any
equilibrium”.
When associated with wars, hyperinflation often occurs when there is a loss of
confidence in a currency's ability to maintain its value in the aftermath. Because of
this, sellers demand a risk premium to accept the currency, and they do this by
raising their prices.
Disinflation
For example if the annual inflation rate of a month is 5% and it is 4% the following
month, then the prices are disinflated by 1% but are still increasing at a 4%
annual rate.
Disinflation is lower inflation. During the occurrence of phenomenon the prices are
still going up but in a lower rate. The general price level still rises, but, a slower
rate resulting in a continued, but, lower rate of real value destruction in money and
other monetary items.
This phenomenon is also called Negative Inflation. Low inflation does not mean
that prices will remain low: it means that prices are rising at a slower pace than
before. When the inflation rate is negative, the economy is in said to be in a
deflationary period. This is when there is less money (supply of money) chasing
the same amount of goods and services, leading to the increase in the value of the
money.
Term Explanation
Hyperinflation Inflation in a very high rate.
2. No of Family Members:
12. Whether price rise had compelled you to change the regular brand
of product you use to a cheaper one?
Yes No
13. Whether price rise had brought notable change in the life style of
the family?
Yes No
14. Does price rise have limited the purchasing power of the family?
Yes No
2. No of Family Members:
12. Whether price rise had compelled you to change the regular
brand of product you use to a cheaper one?
Yes No
13. Whether price rise had brought notable change in the life style of
the family?
Yes No
14. Does price rise have limited the purchasing power of the family?
Yes No
2. No of Family Members:
12. Whether price rise had compelled you to change the regular brand
of product you use to a cheaper one?
Yes No
13. Whether price rise had brought notable change in the life style of
the family?
Yes No
14. Does price rise have limited the purchasing power of the family?
Yes No