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DU5 is the only distillation unit for crude oil in the Aston complex, and its shutdown severely affects all
other operating units. Some of the production can be compensated for by Shale refineries in other
locations, but the rest must be processed and stored before the shutdown. Without proper planning, a
nationwide shortage of Shale gasoline could occur. The time of DU5’s shutdown is critical, and the
length of time the unit is down must be kept to a minimum to limit production loss. Shale uses PERT as
a planning and controlling tool to minimize shutdown time.
The first phase of a shutdown is to open and clean the equipment. Inspectors can then enter the unit and
examine the damage. Once damages are determined, the needed repairs can be carried out. Repair times
can vary considerably, depending on what damage the inspection reveals. Based on previous inspection
records, some repair work is known ahead of time. Thorough cleaning of the equipment is also known to
improve the unit’s operating efficiency. The table below lists the many maintenance activities and their
estimated completion times.
DISCUSSION QUESTIONS
1. Determine the expected shutdown time and the probability that the shutdown can be completed 1
week earlier.
2. What are the probabilities that Shale finishes the maintenance project 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 days earlier?
3. Shale Oil is considering increasing the budget to shorten the shutdown. How do you suggest the
company proceed?
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tube bundles
6- Retube furnaces 15 20 30
17
8- Repair instrumentation 3 8 15
19
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