ESTACION CO CAJABAMBA

PRECIPITACIONES MAXIMAS EN 24 HORAS

AÑO ENE FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC MAX ANNUAL
1985 10.3 15.7 18.6 13.0 7.8 0.3 2.7 4.0 19.7 24.0 20.0 41.0 41.0
1986 22.2 51.0 26.0 50.0 10.0 5.0 5.2 5.0 1.2 27.0 26.0 33.2 51.0
1987 40.0 30.3 17.5 45.0 16.0 6.5 5.5 18.5 25.1 21.5 16.0 25.0 45.0
1988 23.5 37.0 15.7 22.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 1.0 9.2 14.0 30.0 15.0 37.0
1989 23.5 25.6 20.0 20.0 12.0 7.0 0.0 1.3 29.0 20.2 14.0 0.0 29.0
1990 30.0 30.0 19.2 32.5 15.0 7.0 1.5 1.2 5.1 30.0 25.0 30.0 32.5
1991 22.0 20.0 20.0 10.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 0.5 13.0 16.0 35.0 13.0 35.0
1992 27.0 17.6 13.6 15.0 3.5 10.0 1.5 7.0 13.0 20.0 15.0 12.0 27.0
1993 10.0 30.0 35.0 30.0 24.0 0.0 1.7 4.3 13.0 21.6 34.0 47.0 47.0
1994 21.0 27.6 20.5 26.0 16.0 3.6 8.1 1.0 3.1 21.6 17.0 25.3 27.6
1995 19.7 24.6 29.8 18.9 16.2 1.4 8.6 1.0 22.5 23.4 23.8 38.3 38.3
1996 22.3 33.2 17.3 27.7 20.2 4.0 0.0 3.6 15.2 21.5 19.7 36.0 36.0
1997 17.0 31.7 45.8 9.2 5.4 5.4 0.0 21.2 10.5 27.3 37.4 26.6 45.8
1998 65.4 30.2 61.7 35.4 11.1 2.1 0.0 7.0 21.7 18.9 14.7 27.2 65.4
1999 36.7 29.4 26.1 20.3 17.9 18.7 12.3 2.8 15.6 10.6 17.5 27.6 36.7
2000 15.6 29.3 26.2 15.2 7.3 6.7 1.3 4.2 12.1 4.8 15.1 30.0 30.0
2001 30.1 18.3 30.3 7.2 9.8 2.4 1.8 0.0 11.7 26.7 48.6 30.1 48.6
2002 15.9 24.6 49.3 23.6 5.7 2.1 11.4 0.0 32.6 23.5 24.7 31.0 49.3
2003 23.6 16.5 25.4 27.0 8.7 6.8 6.0 0.0 21.8 31.9 39.0 21.1 39.0
2004 24.9 14.3 10.9 34.1 11.9 2.4 17.2 3.8 15.9 15.8 36.5 26.1 36.5
2005 37.1 21.6 20.1 10.7 6.6 3.7 1.2 9.4 7.2 22.4 9.8 21.4 37.1
2006 27.4 32.2 65.7 22.3 4.9 5.7 2.1 19.7 20.9 23.6 24.4 20.4 65.7
2007 14.4 17.6 40.0 27.9 22.2 0.0 3.9 1.2 22.7 30.1 11.7 20.0 40.0
2008 40.9 18.1 31.6 17.3 13.5 14.1 3.7 1.8 14.4 27.0 19.2 9.5 40.9
2009 56.5 23.1 29.3 24.5 27.9 5.6 10.8 7.9 4.1 22.7 40.4 17.7 56.5
2010 22.0 33.6 16.6 43.9 31.7 3.5 0.8 3.8 7.1 15.8 20.9 20.8 43.9
2011 10.6 17.5 31.6 28.2 3.7 0.8 6.0 4.8 30.1 28.0 12.0 55.7 55.7
2012 44.9 29.3 12.9 32.0 13.4 2.7 0.0 1.6 0.9 28.4 17.6 15.9 44.9
2013 24.1 27.4 31.2 42.3 12.0 2.3 10.2 8.3 1.6 32.9 8.2 49.5 49.5
2014 28.4 36.0 29.4 16.6 17.1 0.0 10.8 0.7 13.0 17.1 22.0 25.8 36.0

PROMED 26.9 26.4 27.9 24.9 12.7 4.6 4.7 4.9 14.4 22.3 23.2 26.4 42.3
MAX 65.4 51.0 65.7 50.0 31.7 18.7 17.2 21.2 32.6 32.9 48.6 55.7 65.7
FUENTE: SENAMHI
 LLUVIAS MÁXIMAS (mm)

Latitud : 7O 37' 37' Departamento : Cajamarca ESTACIÓN CLIMATOLÓGICA ORD.:

Longitud :  78O 3' 2''  Provincia : Cajabamba CAJABAMBA
Altitud : 2612 Distrito : Cajabamba
P.Máx.24h. DURACION EN MINUTOS
AÑO
(mm) 5 10 30 60 120 150 200 220
1985 41.0 10.0 11.8 15.6 18.5 22.0 23.3 25.0 25.6
1986 51.0 12.4 14.7 19.4 23.0 27.4 29.0 31.1 31.9
1987 45.0 10.9 13.0 17.1 20.3 24.2 25.6 27.5 28.1
1988 37.0 9.0 10.7 14.1 16.7 19.9 21.0 22.6 23.1
1989 29.0 7.0 8.4 11.0 13.1 15.6 16.5 17.7 18.1
1990 32.5 7.9 9.4 12.3 14.7 17.5 18.5 19.8 20.3
1991 35.0 8.5 10.1 13.3 15.8 18.8 19.9 21.4 21.9
1992 27.0 6.6 7.8 10.3 12.2 14.5 15.3 16.5 16.9
1993 47.0 11.4 13.6 17.9 21.2 25.3 26.7 28.7 29.4
1994 27.6 6.7 8.0 10.5 12.5 14.8 15.7 16.8 17.3
1995 38.3 9.3 11.1 14.6 17.3 20.6 21.8 23.4 23.9
1996 36.0 8.7 10.4 13.7 16.3 19.3 20.5 22.0 22.5
1997 45.8 11.1 13.2 17.4 20.7 24.6 26.0 28.0 28.6
1998 65.4 15.9 18.9 24.8 29.5 35.1 37.2 39.9 40.9
1999 36.7 8.9 10.6 13.9 16.6 19.7 20.8 22.4 22.9
2000 30.0 7.3 8.7 11.4 13.6 16.1 17.0 18.3 18.8
2001 48.6 11.8 14.0 18.5 22.0 26.1 27.6 29.7 30.4
2002 49.3 12.0 14.2 18.7 22.3 26.5 28.0 30.1 30.8
2003 39.0 9.5 11.3 14.8 17.6 21.0 22.2 23.8 24.4
2004 36.5 8.9 10.5 13.9 16.5 19.6 20.7 22.3 22.8
2005 37.1 9.0 10.7 14.1 16.8 19.9 21.1 22.6 23.2
2006 65.7 15.9 19.0 25.0 29.7 35.3 37.3 40.1 41.1
2007 40.0 9.7 11.5 15.2 18.1 21.5 22.7 24.4 25.0
2008 40.9 9.9 11.8 15.5 18.5 22.0 23.2 25.0 25.6
2009 56.5 13.7 16.3 21.5 25.5 30.4 32.1 34.5 35.3
2010 43.9 10.7 12.7 16.7 19.8 23.6 24.9 26.8 27.4
2011 55.7 13.5 16.1 21.2 25.2 29.9 31.6 34.0 34.8
2012 44.9 10.9 13.0 17.1 20.3 24.1 25.5 27.4 28.1
2013 49.5 12.0 14.3 18.8 22.4 26.6 28.1 30.2 30.9
2014 36.0 8.7 10.4 13.7 16.3 19.3 20.5 22.0 22.5

Prom 42.3 10.3 12.2 16.1 19.1 22.7 24.0 25.8 26.4
Desv. Es 10.0 2.4 2.9 3.8 4.5 5.4 5.7 6.1 6.2
 INTENSIDADES (mm/h)

Latitud : 7O 37' 37' Departamento : Cajamarca ESTACIÓN CLIMATOLÓGICA ORD.:

Longitud :  78 3' 2'' 
O Provincia : Cajabamba CAJABAMBA
Altitud : 2612 Distrito : Cajabamba
DURACION EN MINUTOS
AÑO P.Máx.24h.
5 10 30 60 120 150 200 220
1985 41.00 119.41 71.02 31.15 18.52 11.01 9.32 7.51 6.99
1986 51.00 148.53 88.34 38.75 23.04 13.70 11.59 9.34 8.70
1987 45.00 131.06 77.95 34.19 20.33 12.09 10.23 8.24 7.67
1988 37.00 107.76 64.09 28.11 16.72 9.94 8.41 6.78 6.31
1989 29.00 84.46 50.23 22.03 13.10 7.79 6.59 5.31 4.94
1990 32.50 94.65 56.30 24.69 14.68 8.73 7.39 5.95 5.54
1991 35.00 101.93 60.63 26.59 15.81 9.40 7.95 6.41 5.97
1992 27.00 78.63 46.77 20.51 12.20 7.25 6.14 4.95 4.60
1993 47.00 136.88 81.41 35.71 21.23 12.63 10.68 8.61 8.01
1994 27.60 80.38 47.81 20.97 12.47 7.41 6.27 5.05 4.71
1995 38.30 111.54 66.34 29.10 17.30 10.29 8.70 7.01 6.53
1996 36.00 104.85 62.36 27.35 16.26 9.67 8.18 6.59 6.14
1997 45.80 133.39 79.33 34.80 20.69 12.30 10.41 8.39 7.81
1998 65.40 190.47 113.29 49.69 29.55 17.57 14.86 11.98 11.15
1999 36.70 106.89 63.57 27.88 16.58 9.86 8.34 6.72 6.26
2000 30.00 87.37 51.97 22.79 13.55 8.06 6.82 5.49 5.12
2001 48.60 141.54 84.18 36.93 21.96 13.06 11.04 8.90 8.29
2002 49.30 143.58 85.40 37.46 22.27 13.24 11.20 9.03 8.41
2003 39.00 113.58 67.56 29.63 17.62 10.48 8.86 7.14 6.65
2004 36.50 106.30 63.23 27.73 16.49 9.81 8.29 6.68 6.22
2005 37.10 108.05 64.26 28.19 16.76 9.97 8.43 6.79 6.33
2006 65.70 191.34 113.81 49.92 29.68 17.65 14.93 12.03 11.20
2007 40.00 116.50 69.29 30.39 18.07 10.75 9.09 7.33 6.82
2008 40.90 119.12 70.85 31.08 18.48 10.99 9.29 7.49 6.97
2009 56.50 164.55 97.87 42.93 25.53 15.18 12.84 10.35 9.63
2010 43.90 127.85 76.04 33.36 19.83 11.79 9.98 8.04 7.49
2011 55.70 162.22 96.48 42.32 25.17 14.96 12.66 10.20 9.50
2012 44.90 130.77 77.78 34.12 20.29 12.06 10.20 8.22 7.66
2013 49.50 144.16 85.74 37.61 22.36 13.30 11.25 9.07 8.44
2014 36.00 104.85 62.36 27.35 16.26 9.67 8.18 6.59 6.14

Prom 42.3 123.1 73.2 32.1 19.1 11.4 9.6 7.7 7.2
Desv. Es 10.0 29.1 17.3 7.6 4.5 2.7 2.3 1.8 1.7

I. TRANSPOSICIÓN DE INTENSIDADES (mm/hr)

CUENCA : PONTE DEPARTAMENTO : CAJAMARCA

Altitud Media : : 2700 msnm PROVINCIA : CAJABAMBA
DISTRITO : CAJABAMBA, CONDEBAMBA

 H media 
I 2  I1 
H1
Donde:I2 : Intensidad de la cuenca Desconocida Hmedia : De la cuenca Desaconocida
I1 : Intensidad de la est. con información. H1 : Alt. de la est. con información

TABLA DE INTENSIDADES TRANSPUESTAS

DURACION EN MINUTOS
AÑO
5 10 30 60 120 150 200 220
1985 123.43 73.41 32.20 19.15 11.39 9.63 7.76 7.23
1986 153.54 91.32 40.06 23.82 14.16 11.98 9.66 8.99
1987 135.47 80.58 35.34 21.02 12.50 10.57 8.52 7.93
1988 111.39 66.25 29.06 17.28 10.27 8.69 7.00 6.52
1989 87.31 51.93 22.78 13.54 8.05 6.81 5.49 5.11
1990 97.84 58.19 25.53 15.18 9.03 7.63 6.15 5.73
1991 105.37 62.67 27.49 16.35 9.72 8.22 6.63 6.17
1992 81.28 48.35 21.21 12.61 7.50 6.34 5.11 4.76
1993 141.49 84.16 36.91 21.95 13.05 11.04 8.90 8.28
1994 83.09 49.42 21.68 12.89 7.66 6.48 5.23 4.86
1995 115.30 68.58 30.08 17.89 10.64 9.00 7.25 6.75
1996 108.38 64.46 28.27 16.81 10.00 8.46 6.82 6.35
1997 137.88 82.01 35.97 21.39 12.72 10.76 8.67 8.07
1998 196.89 117.10 51.37 30.54 18.16 15.36 12.38 11.53
1999 110.49 65.71 28.82 17.14 10.19 8.62 6.95 6.47
2000 90.32 53.72 23.56 14.01 8.33 7.05 5.68 5.29
2001 146.31 87.02 38.17 22.70 13.50 11.42 9.20 8.57
2002 148.42 88.27 38.72 23.02 13.69 11.58 9.33 8.69
2003 117.41 69.83 30.63 18.21 10.83 9.16 7.38 6.87
2004 109.88 65.36 28.67 17.05 10.14 8.57 6.91 6.43
2005 111.69 66.43 29.14 17.33 10.30 8.71 7.02 6.54
2006 197.79 117.64 51.60 30.68 18.24 15.43 12.44 11.58
2007 120.42 71.62 31.42 18.68 11.11 9.40 7.57 7.05
2008 123.13 73.23 32.12 19.10 11.36 9.61 7.74 7.21
2009 170.09 101.17 44.37 26.39 15.69 13.27 10.70 9.96
2010 132.16 78.61 34.48 20.50 12.19 10.31 8.31 7.74
2011 167.69 99.73 43.75 26.01 15.47 13.08 10.55 9.82
2012 135.17 80.40 35.26 20.97 12.47 10.55 8.50 7.91
2013 149.02 88.63 38.88 23.12 13.75 11.63 9.37 8.72
2014 108.38 64.46 28.27 16.81 10.00 8.46 6.82 6.35

PROMEDIO (X): 127.2 75.7 33.2 19.7 11.7 9.9 8.0 7.4
DESV. EST. (S): 30.07 17.88 7.84 4.66 2.77 2.35 1.89 1.76
PARA EL MODELO MATEMÁTICO DE GUMBEL

1.- PRUEBA DE BONDAD DE AJUSTE (SMIRNOV - KOLMOGOROV)

DURACION EN MINUTOS
m 5 10 30 60 120 150 200 220
1 197.8 117.64 51.60 30.68 18.24 15.43 12.44 11.58
2 196.9 117.10 51.37 30.54 18.16 15.36 12.38 11.53
3 170.1 101.17 44.37 26.39 15.69 13.27 10.70 9.96
4 167.7 99.73 43.75 26.01 15.47 13.08 10.55 9.82
5 153.5 91.32 40.06 23.82 14.16 11.98 9.66 8.99
6 149.0 88.63 38.88 23.12 13.75 11.63 9.37 8.72
7 148.4 88.27 38.72 23.02 13.69 11.58 9.33 8.69
8 146.3 87.02 38.17 22.70 13.50 11.42 9.20 8.57
9 141.5 84.16 36.91 21.95 13.05 11.04 8.90 8.28
10 137.9 82.01 35.97 21.39 12.72 10.76 8.67 8.07
11 135.5 80.58 35.34 21.02 12.50 10.57 8.52 7.93
12 135.2 80.40 35.26 20.97 12.47 10.55 8.50 7.91
13 132.2 78.61 34.48 20.50 12.19 10.31 8.31 7.74
14 123.4 73.41 32.20 19.15 11.39 9.63 7.76 7.23
15 123.1 73.23 32.12 19.10 11.36 9.61 7.74 7.21
16 120.4 71.62 31.42 18.68 11.11 9.40 7.57 7.05
17 117.4 69.83 30.63 18.21 10.83 9.16 7.38 6.87
18 115.3 68.58 30.08 17.89 10.64 9.00 7.25 6.75
19 111.7 66.43 29.14 17.33 10.30 8.71 7.02 6.54
20 111.4 66.25 29.06 17.28 10.27 8.69 7.00 6.52
21 110.5 65.71 28.82 17.14 10.19 8.62 6.95 6.47
22 109.9 65.36 28.67 17.05 10.14 8.57 6.91 6.43
23 108.4 64.46 28.27 16.81 10.00 8.46 6.82 6.35
24 108.4 64.46 28.27 16.81 10.00 8.46 6.82 6.35
25 105.4 62.67 27.49 16.35 9.72 8.22 6.63 6.17
26 97.8 58.19 25.53 15.18 9.03 7.63 6.15 5.73
27 90.3 53.72 23.56 14.01 8.33 7.05 5.68 5.29
28 87.3 51.93 22.78 13.54 8.05 6.81 5.49 5.11
29 83.1 49.42 21.68 12.89 7.66 6.48 5.23 4.86
30 81.3 48.35 21.21 12.61 7.50 6.34 5.11 4.76

ANÁLISIS PARA CADA DURACIÓN

 1.1. T = 5 min

 x  

   
e  
F x  e

Estimación de los parametros:

Numero de datos: Donde:

N= 30 X= 127.23
S= 30.07
α= 23.451797
C= 0.57721 Constante de Euler
u= 113.69803

m I (5 min) P(X>X) Weibull 1- P(X>X) F(X < X) |P(X<x) - F(X < X)|
1 197.79 0.032 0.97 0.9727 0.005
2 196.89 0.065 0.94 0.9716 0.036
3 170.09 0.097 0.90 0.9137 0.010
4 167.69 0.129 0.87 0.9048 0.034
5 153.54 0.161 0.84 0.8328 0.006
6 149.02 0.194 0.81 0.8011 0.005
7 148.42 0.226 0.77 0.7965 0.022
8 146.31 0.258 0.74 0.7796 0.038
9 141.49 0.290 0.71 0.7366 0.027
10 137.88 0.323 0.68 0.7001 0.023
11 135.47 0.355 0.65 0.6736 0.028
12 135.17 0.387 0.61 0.6702 0.057
13 132.16 0.419 0.58 0.6344 0.054
14 123.43 0.452 0.55 0.5167 0.032
15 123.13 0.484 0.52 0.5123 0.004
16 120.42 0.516 0.48 0.4720 0.012
17 117.41 0.548 0.45 0.4259 0.026
18 115.30 0.581 0.42 0.3930 0.026
19 111.69 0.613 0.39 0.3364 0.051
20 111.39 0.645 0.35 0.3317 0.023
21 110.49 0.677 0.32 0.3177 0.005
22 109.88 0.710 0.29 0.3083 0.018
23 108.38 0.742 0.26 0.2852 0.027
24 108.38 0.774 0.23 0.2852 0.059
25 105.37 0.806 0.19 0.2402 0.047
26 97.84 0.839 0.16 0.1400 0.021
 27 90.32 0.871 0.13 0.0665 0.063
28 87.31 0.903 0.10 0.0459 0.051
29 83.09 0.935 0.06 0.0250 0.039
30 81.28 0.968 0.03 0.0186 0.014

HISTOGRAMA (t = 5 min)
1.20
Probabilidad

1.00

0.80

0.60

0.40

0.20

0.00
60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 160.00 180.00 200.00 220.00
Intensidades(mm/hr)

Modelo Teórico Modelo Empírico (Weibull)

1.2. T = 10 min

 x  

   
e  
F x  e
Estimación de los parametros:
Numero de datos: Donde:
N= 30 X= 75.67
S= 17.88
α= 13.94836
C= 0.57721 Constante de Euler
u= 67.623857

m I (10 min) P(X>X) Weibull 1- P(X>X) F(X < X) |P(X<x) - F(X < X)|
1 117.64 0.032 0.97 0.9727 0.005
2 117.10 0.065 0.94 0.9716 0.036
3 101.17 0.097 0.90 0.9137 0.010
4 99.73 0.129 0.87 0.9048 0.034
5 91.32 0.161 0.84 0.8328 0.006
6 88.63 0.194 0.81 0.8011 0.005
7 88.27 0.226 0.77 0.7965 0.022
8 87.02 0.258 0.74 0.7796 0.038
9 84.16 0.290 0.71 0.7366 0.027
10 82.01 0.323 0.68 0.7001 0.023
11 80.58 0.355 0.65 0.6736 0.028
12 80.40 0.387 0.61 0.6702 0.057
13 78.61 0.419 0.58 0.6344 0.054
14 73.41 0.452 0.55 0.5167 0.032
15 73.23 0.484 0.52 0.5123 0.004
16 71.62 0.516 0.48 0.4720 0.012
17 69.83 0.548 0.45 0.4259 0.026
18 68.58 0.581 0.42 0.3930 0.026
19 66.43 0.613 0.39 0.3364 0.051
20 66.25 0.645 0.35 0.3317 0.023
21 65.71 0.677 0.32 0.3177 0.005
22 65.36 0.710 0.29 0.3083 0.018
23 64.46 0.742 0.26 0.2852 0.027
24 64.46 0.774 0.23 0.2852 0.059
25 62.67 0.806 0.19 0.2402 0.047
26 58.19 0.839 0.16 0.1400 0.021
27 53.72 0.871 0.13 0.0665 0.063
28 51.93 0.903 0.10 0.0459 0.051
29 49.42 0.935 0.06 0.0250 0.039
30 48.35 0.968 0.03 0.0186 0.014
 HISTOGRAMA (t = 10 min)
Probabilidad

1.20

1.00

0.80

0.60

0.40

0.20

0.00
40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00 110.00 120.00 130.00

Intensidades(mm/hr)
Modelo Teórico
Modelo Empírico (Weibull)

1.3. T = 30 min

 x  

   
e  
F x  e
Estimación de los parametros:

Numero de datos: Donde:

N= 30 X= 33.19
 S= 7.84
α= 6.1182102
C= 0.57721 Constante de Euler
u= 29.662052

m I (30 min) P(X>X) Weibull 1- P(X>X) F(X < X) |P(X<x) - F(X < X)|
1 51.60 0.032 0.97 0.9727 0.005
2 51.37 0.065 0.94 0.9716 0.036
3 44.37 0.097 0.90 0.9137 0.010
4 43.75 0.129 0.87 0.9048 0.034
5 40.06 0.161 0.84 0.8328 0.006
6 38.88 0.194 0.81 0.8011 0.005
7 38.72 0.226 0.77 0.7965 0.022
8 38.17 0.258 0.74 0.7796 0.038
9 36.91 0.290 0.71 0.7366 0.027
10 35.97 0.323 0.68 0.7001 0.023
11 35.34 0.355 0.65 0.6736 0.028
12 35.26 0.387 0.61 0.6702 0.057
13 34.48 0.419 0.58 0.6344 0.054
14 32.20 0.452 0.55 0.5167 0.032
15 32.12 0.484 0.52 0.5123 0.004
16 31.42 0.516 0.48 0.4720 0.012
17 30.63 0.548 0.45 0.4259 0.026
18 30.08 0.581 0.42 0.3930 0.026
19 29.14 0.613 0.39 0.3364 0.051
20 29.06 0.645 0.35 0.3317 0.023
21 28.82 0.677 0.32 0.3177 0.005
22 28.67 0.710 0.29 0.3083 0.018
23 28.27 0.742 0.26 0.2852 0.027
24 28.27 0.774 0.23 0.2852 0.059
25 27.49 0.806 0.19 0.2402 0.047
26 25.53 0.839 0.16 0.1400 0.021
27 23.56 0.871 0.13 0.0665 0.063
28 22.78 0.903 0.10 0.0459 0.051
29 21.68 0.935 0.06 0.0250 0.039
30 21.21 0.968 0.03 0.0186 0.014

HISTOGRAMA (t = 30 min)
Probabilidad

1.20

1.00

0.80
 HISTOGRAMA (t = 30 min)

Probabilidad
1.20

1.00

0.80

0.60

0.40

0.20

0.00
15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 50.00 55.00

Intensidades(mm/hr)
Modelo Teórico
Modelo Empírico (Weibull)

1.4. T = 60 min

 x  

   
e  
F x  e
Estimación de los parametros:

Numero de datos: Donde:

N= 30 X= 19.74
S= 4.66
α= 3.6380724
C= 0.57721 Constante de Euler
u= 17.637951

m I (60 min) P(X>X) Weibull 1- P(X>X) F(X < X) |P(X<x) - F(X < X)|
1 30.68 0.032 0.97 0.9727 0.005
2 30.54 0.065 0.94 0.9716 0.036
3 26.39 0.097 0.90 0.9137 0.010
4 26.01 0.129 0.87 0.9048 0.034
5 23.82 0.161 0.84 0.8328 0.006
6 23.12 0.194 0.81 0.8011 0.005
7 23.02 0.226 0.77 0.7965 0.022
8 22.70 0.258 0.74 0.7796 0.038
 9 21.95 0.290 0.71 0.7366 0.027
10 21.39 0.323 0.68 0.7001 0.023
11 21.02 0.355 0.65 0.6736 0.028
12 20.97 0.387 0.61 0.6702 0.057
13 20.50 0.419 0.58 0.6344 0.054
14 19.15 0.452 0.55 0.5167 0.032
15 19.10 0.484 0.52 0.5123 0.004
16 18.68 0.516 0.48 0.4720 0.012
17 18.21 0.548 0.45 0.4259 0.026
18 17.89 0.581 0.42 0.3930 0.026
19 17.33 0.613 0.39 0.3364 0.051
20 17.28 0.645 0.35 0.3317 0.023
21 17.14 0.677 0.32 0.3177 0.005
22 17.05 0.710 0.29 0.3083 0.018
23 16.81 0.742 0.26 0.2852 0.027
24 16.81 0.774 0.23 0.2852 0.059
25 16.35 0.806 0.19 0.2402 0.047
26 15.18 0.839 0.16 0.1400 0.021
27 14.01 0.871 0.13 0.0665 0.063
28 13.54 0.903 0.10 0.0459 0.051
29 12.89 0.935 0.06 0.0250 0.039
30 12.61 0.968 0.03 0.0186 0.014

HISTOGRAMA (t = 60 min)
Probabilidad

1.20

1.00

0.80

0.60

0.40

0.20

0.00
10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00

Intensidades(mm/hr)
Modelo Teórico
Modelo Empírico (Weibull)
 1.5. T =120 min

 x  

 

e   
F x  e
Estimación de los parametros:

Numero de datos: Donde:

N= 30 X= 11.74
S= 2.77
α= 2.1632761
C= 0.57721 Constante de Euler
u= 10.487905

m I (120 min) P(X>X) Weibull 1- P(X>X) F(X < X) |P(X<x) - F(X < X)|
1 18.24 0.032 0.97 0.9727 0.005
2 18.16 0.065 0.94 0.9716 0.036
3 15.69 0.097 0.90 0.9137 0.010
4 15.47 0.129 0.87 0.9048 0.034
5 14.16 0.161 0.84 0.8328 0.006
6 13.75 0.194 0.81 0.8011 0.005
7 13.69 0.226 0.77 0.7965 0.022
8 13.50 0.258 0.74 0.7796 0.038
9 13.05 0.290 0.71 0.7366 0.027
10 12.72 0.323 0.68 0.7001 0.023
11 12.50 0.355 0.65 0.6736 0.028
12 12.47 0.387 0.61 0.6702 0.057
13 12.19 0.419 0.58 0.6344 0.054
14 11.39 0.452 0.55 0.5167 0.032
15 11.36 0.484 0.52 0.5123 0.004
16 11.11 0.516 0.48 0.4720 0.012
17 10.83 0.548 0.45 0.4259 0.026
18 10.64 0.581 0.42 0.3930 0.026
19 10.30 0.613 0.39 0.3364 0.051
20 10.27 0.645 0.35 0.3317 0.023
21 10.19 0.677 0.32 0.3177 0.005
22 10.14 0.710 0.29 0.3083 0.018
23 10.00 0.742 0.26 0.2852 0.027
24 10.00 0.774 0.23 0.2852 0.059
25 9.72 0.806 0.19 0.2402 0.047
 26 9.03 0.839 0.16 0.1400 0.021
27 8.33 0.871 0.13 0.0665 0.063
28 8.05 0.903 0.10 0.0459 0.051
29 7.66 0.935 0.06 0.0250 0.039
30 7.50 0.968 0.03 0.0186 0.014

HISTOGRAMA (t = 120 min)

Probabilidad

1.20

1.00

0.80

0.60

0.40

0.20

0.00
6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00 20.00

Intensidades(mm/hr)
Modelo Empírico (Weibull)
Modelo Teórico

1.6. T =150 min

 x  

   
e  
F x  e
  x  

   
e  
F x  e
Estimación de los parametros:

Numero de datos: Donde:

N= 30 X= 9.93
S= 2.35
α= 1.8298264
C= 0.57721 Constante de Euler
u= 8.8712882

m I (150 min) P(X>X) Weibull 1- P(X>X) F(X < X) |P(X<x) - F(X < X)|
1 15.43 0.032 0.97 0.9727 0.005
2 15.36 0.065 0.94 0.9716 0.036
3 13.27 0.097 0.90 0.9137 0.010
4 13.08 0.129 0.87 0.9048 0.034
5 11.98 0.161 0.84 0.8328 0.006
6 11.63 0.194 0.81 0.8011 0.005
7 11.58 0.226 0.77 0.7965 0.022
8 11.42 0.258 0.74 0.7796 0.038
9 11.04 0.290 0.71 0.7366 0.027
10 10.76 0.323 0.68 0.7001 0.023
11 10.57 0.355 0.65 0.6736 0.028
12 10.55 0.387 0.61 0.6702 0.057
13 10.31 0.419 0.58 0.6344 0.054
14 9.63 0.452 0.55 0.5167 0.032
15 9.61 0.484 0.52 0.5123 0.004
16 9.40 0.516 0.48 0.4720 0.012
17 9.16 0.548 0.45 0.4259 0.026
18 9.00 0.581 0.42 0.3930 0.026
19 8.71 0.613 0.39 0.3364 0.051
20 8.69 0.645 0.35 0.3317 0.023
21 8.62 0.677 0.32 0.3177 0.005
22 8.57 0.710 0.29 0.3083 0.018
23 8.46 0.742 0.26 0.2852 0.027
24 8.46 0.774 0.23 0.2852 0.059
25 8.22 0.806 0.19 0.2402 0.047
26 7.63 0.839 0.16 0.1400 0.021
27 7.05 0.871 0.13 0.0665 0.063
28 6.81 0.903 0.10 0.0459 0.051
29 6.48 0.935 0.06 0.0250 0.039
 30 6.34 0.968 0.03 0.0186 0.014

HISTOGRAMA (t = 150 min)

Probabilidad

1.20

1.00

0.80

0.60

0.40

0.20

0.00
4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00

Intensidades(mm/hr)
Modelo Teórico
Modelo Empírico (Weibull)

1.7. T =200 min

 x  

   
e  
F x  e
Estimación de los parametros:

Numero de datos: Donde:

N= 30 X= 8.00
S= 1.89
α= 1.4747963
C= 0.57721 Constante de Euler
u= 7.1500459
 m I (200 min) P(X>X) Weibull 1- P(X>X) F(X < X) |P(X<x) - F(X < X)|
1 12.44 0.032 0.97 0.9727 0.005
2 12.38 0.065 0.94 0.9716 0.036
3 10.70 0.097 0.90 0.9137 0.010
4 10.55 0.129 0.87 0.9048 0.034
5 9.66 0.161 0.84 0.8328 0.006
6 9.37 0.194 0.81 0.8011 0.005
7 9.33 0.226 0.77 0.7965 0.022
8 9.20 0.258 0.74 0.7796 0.038
9 8.90 0.290 0.71 0.7366 0.027
10 8.67 0.323 0.68 0.7001 0.023
11 8.52 0.355 0.65 0.6736 0.028
12 8.50 0.387 0.61 0.6702 0.057
13 8.31 0.419 0.58 0.6344 0.054
14 7.76 0.452 0.55 0.5167 0.032
15 7.74 0.484 0.52 0.5123 0.004
16 7.57 0.516 0.48 0.4720 0.012
17 7.38 0.548 0.45 0.4259 0.026
18 7.25 0.581 0.42 0.3930 0.026
19 7.02 0.613 0.39 0.3364 0.051
20 7.00 0.645 0.35 0.3317 0.023
21 6.95 0.677 0.32 0.3177 0.005
22 6.91 0.710 0.29 0.3083 0.018
23 6.82 0.742 0.26 0.2852 0.027
24 6.82 0.774 0.23 0.2852 0.059
25 6.63 0.806 0.19 0.2402 0.047
26 6.15 0.839 0.16 0.1400 0.021
27 5.68 0.871 0.13 0.0665 0.063
28 5.49 0.903 0.10 0.0459 0.051
29 5.23 0.935 0.06 0.0250 0.039
30 5.11 0.968 0.03 0.0186 0.014

HISTOGRAMA (t = 200 min)

Probabilidad

1.20

1.00

0.80

0.60

0.40

0.20
 0.80

0.60

0.40

0.20

0.00
4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 11.00 12.00 13.00

Intensidades(mm/hr)
Modelo Teórico
Modelo Empírico (Weibull)

1.8. T =220 min

 x  

 

e   
F x  e
Estimación de los parametros:

Numero de datos: Donde:

N= 30 X= 7.45
S= 1.76
α= 1.3730067
C= 0.57721 Constante de Euler
u= 6.6565538

m I (220 min) P(X>X) Weibull 1- P(X>X) F(X < X) |P(X<x) - F(X < X)|
1 11.58 0.032 0.97 0.9727 0.005
2 11.53 0.065 0.94 0.9716 0.036
3 9.96 0.097 0.90 0.9137 0.010
4 9.82 0.129 0.87 0.9048 0.034
5 8.99 0.161 0.84 0.8328 0.006
6 8.72 0.194 0.81 0.8011 0.005
7 8.69 0.226 0.77 0.7965 0.022
8 8.57 0.258 0.74 0.7796 0.038
9 8.28 0.290 0.71 0.7366 0.027
10 8.07 0.323 0.68 0.7001 0.023
11 7.93 0.355 0.65 0.6736 0.028
12 7.91 0.387 0.61 0.6702 0.057
13 7.74 0.419 0.58 0.6344 0.054
14 7.23 0.452 0.55 0.5167 0.032
15 7.21 0.484 0.52 0.5123 0.004
 16 7.05 0.516 0.48 0.4720 0.012
17 6.87 0.548 0.45 0.4259 0.026
18 6.75 0.581 0.42 0.3930 0.026
19 6.54 0.613 0.39 0.3364 0.051
20 6.52 0.645 0.35 0.3317 0.023
21 6.47 0.677 0.32 0.3177 0.005
22 6.43 0.710 0.29 0.3083 0.018
23 6.35 0.742 0.26 0.2852 0.027
24 6.35 0.774 0.23 0.2852 0.059
25 6.17 0.806 0.19 0.2402 0.047
26 5.73 0.839 0.16 0.1400 0.021
27 5.29 0.871 0.13 0.0665 0.063
28 5.11 0.903 0.10 0.0459 0.051
29 4.86 0.935 0.06 0.0250 0.039
30 4.76 0.968 0.03 0.0186 0.014
Probabilidad

HISTOGRAMA (t = 220 min)

1.20

1.00

0.80

0.60

0.40

0.20

0.00
4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 11.00 12.00
Intensidades(mm/hr)
Modelo Teórico

5 10 30 60 120 150 200 220

Duración de Intensidad

Weibull (Dc máx) 0.063 0.063 0.063 0.063 0.063 0.063 0.063 0.063
0.063
N= 30 ∆_0=1.36/
√𝑁

∆o = 0.248 por lo tanto:SI se ajusta al modelo Gumbel

Realizando una comparacion de los datos del cuadro (∆cmax) con ∆o, tenemos:
Como Dcmáx < Do , entonces los datos se ajustan al modelo de Gumbel.
 Parámetro 5min 10min 30min 60min 120min 150min 200min 220min
Max. Max. Max. Max. Max. Max. Max. Max.
Promedio 127.23 75.67 33.19 19.74 11.74 9.93 8.00 7.45
Desv.est. 30.07 17.88 7.84 4.66 2.77 2.35 1.89 1.76
α 23.45 13.95 6.12 3.64 2.16 1.83 1.47 1.37
u 113.70 67.62 29.66 17.64 10.49 8.87 7.15 6.66

CALCULO PARA DE LAS INTENSIDADES PARA UN TIEMPO DE RETORNO DE T AÑOS

Como la informacion analizada se ajusta al Modelo Gumbel, vamos a usar las siguiente expresion
para hallar las intensidades que necesitamos:

 x  

 

e   
F x  e

Despejando x

   1 
x  u  
 Ln 
  Ln  1  T  

    
Donde:
T = Tiempo de retorno
µ, α = Parametros de la Distr. Gumbel

TR (Años) 15 20 25 50 75 100
TIEMPO INTENSIDADES
(min) (mm/h) (mm/h) (mm/h) (mm/h) (mm/h) (mm/h)
5 176.4 183.4 188.7 205.2 214.8 221.6
10 104.9 109.1 112.2 122.0 127.8 131.8
30 46.0 47.8 49.2 53.5 56.0 57.8
60 27.4 28.4 29.3 31.8 33.3 34.4
120 16.3 16.9 17.4 18.9 19.8 20.4
150 13.8 14.3 14.7 16.0 16.8 17.3
200 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.9 13.5 13.9
 220 10.3 10.7 11.0 12.0 12.6 13.0

Elección de periodo de retorno por riesgo de falla

T n R
50 25 0.397 Riesgo de falla aceptable
Intensidades (mm/h)

200 f(x) = 686.189976968219 x^-0.74997146644133

R²INTENSIDAD - DURACIÓN-FRECUENCIA: 50 AÑOS DE PERIODO DE RETORNO
= 0.999999995524873

150

Column F
Power (Column F)

100

50

0
0 50 100 150 200
Tiempo (min)
 0.2427 0.2887 0.3799 0.4518 0.5373 0.5681 0.6105 0.6252

9.95 11.84 15.58 18.52 22.03 23.29 25.03 25.63

Para el caso de duraciones de tormenta menores a 3 horas
metodología de Dick Peschke (Guevara, 1991)

Para largas duraciones(Cuencas grandes)

Ordenamos los datos del cuadro anterior de mayor a menor para poder realizar la prueba:
Cuadro resumen de parámetros del modelo Gumbel

Param 5 Min 10 Min 30 Min 60 Min 120 Min 150 Min 200 Min 220 Min
X= 197.7 117.6 51.6 30.7 18.2 15.4 12.4 11.6
S= 153.2 91.1 40.0 23.8 14.1 12.0 9.6 9.0
α= 119.5 71.1 31.2 18.5 11.0 9.3 7.5 7.0
C= 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
u= 128.7 76.5 33.6 20.0 11.9 10.0 8.1 7.5
(C487-((LN(-LN(1-(POTENCIA($B$420,-1)))))*C486))
lizar la prueba: