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Fig 10
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Fig 11
Stovall’s sector rotation identified five economic cycle Just like all other fractals, a link runs through market
stages in the market viz. early expansion, middle cycles which Tony Plummer defines in his book on
expansion late expansion
expansion, expansion, early contraction and late Forecasting Financial markets
markets. Plummer classifies the
contraction. The market sectors move within these five broad economic cycles into TRIADS with Base, trend
stages. Technology and Transportation perform in the and terminal cycles. Cycles are seen from low to low
early expansion, capital goods in the middle expansion and not from high to high, as bullish market bias extends
stage, basic materials, energy, and consumer staples in markets longer pushing the cycle top ahead of the
the late expansion stage, utilities in the early contraction symmetrical high. Bear markets correct faster. This is
stage. And financials and consumer cyclicals in the late why the bear cycle tops are translated (biased) towards
contraction stage. the left and lie before the symmetrical cycle tops.
Plummer identifies behavioral traits linked with the
Father of Intermarket analysis John Murphy, connects respective base, trend and terminal cycles. Base cycles
defines the four broad asset classed viz. are characteristic of Indolence, recuperation and
bonds, currencies, equities, and commodities and there rejection. And trend cycles are characteristic of
linkages. How bonds leads equity markets and how confidence, change and deception. Fear, resistance and
commodity upcylces are inverse of equity cycles. accusation are characteristic of final terminal cycles. All
these cycles have a three wave pattern labeled as 1-2-3
up and a-b-c down (Fig 7).
These triads build the economic cycles and exhibit a Strauss and Howe crisis alternate between deflation and
power laws behavior. Kitchen cycles (Fig 13.) last from 3 accelerating inflation. This is why Plummer believes we
to 5 years and on average are 3 3.33
33 years long.
long These have finished the deflation Strauss and Howe metacycle
are knows as inventory cycles are closer to the popularly in 1946 and now we are in the inflationary cycles that
know US presidential cycles. The only cycles should push till 2030 marked by the world war III. A rough
conventional economists believe to work. Next comes calculation and one can see that India's first war of
the Juglar cycle, which last for 7 to 11 years and independence and US civil war of 1857 had an uncanny
average around 10 years. These are also knows similarity. This we at Orpheus believe was the second 90
popularly as the decade cycles. Juglar cycles, which are year metacycle. The first starting somewhere in 1720, the
also known as the capital investment cycles, are three start of capitalism. Hence we are indeed in the revolution
times Kitchen cycles. Then next power law that is three cycle which ends the 270270-300
300 years of economic activity
times Juglar cycles take us to Berry cycles also known near 2030. We are not sure how inflationary things may
as the infrastructure cycles. Berry cycles last for 25 to 30 get or whether we are indeed heading for hyperinflation
years averaging around 30 years. We have seen 25 and destruction of real money, the pointers more indicate
year cycles in commodities, gold and silver ratio, at the latter than the former. The intermediate pause
volatility etc. A step ahead on power law takes us to the before the last 30 year cycle starts should be around
Strauss and Howe cycles (crisis cycles) of 90 to 99 2012-2014. This should be marked by economic growth
years. Plummer makes an interesting observation about accompanied by continued rise in commodity prices, Gold
Kondratyev cycles while classifying the triads from 3.33 at 3000 dollars and Oil p potentially
y much higher.
g New
years to 90 years. Kondratyev is not an economic cycle sectors to watch should be the alternative energy and
as Kondratyev saw prices rising and falling in long biotech till 2020 and beyond.
waves. Not all Kondratyev lows are major depressions
because not all Strauss and Howe lows will coincide
with a Kondratyev low.
SOURCE. ECONOMIST
Intermarket cyclicality is a subject coined by us at The current multi decade cycle is inflationary and of rising
Orpheus. This subject not only redefines SAM Stovall's interest rates. Many emerging markets are between the
sector rotation
rotation. But it also attempts to extend market late expansion and early contraction stage. This means
cyclicality from an intermarket perspective. Since cycles that the sectors which will outperform are the
work on Triads, Sam's sector rotation sectors can be Energy, Staples, materials and utilities. This should
reclassified in three broad sectors viz. early economic, happen for atleast a primary (more than 9 months) time
mid economic and late economic cycle sector (Fig 11). frame. The late economic sector cycle is in sync with the
Early Economic i.e. Financials, Information Technology ongoing 30 year commodity cycle (Fig 14.), which started
and Discretionary. Mid economic i.e. industrials and Late in 1998-2000 and should top in 2012-2015.
economic consisting of Energy, Materials, Staples and
Utilities. As we head into the terminal kitchen cycle and This is another reason why food
food, material and commodity
Juglar cycle low in 2010-2012 the late economic cycle prices will continue to rise. However, we should not forget
should outperform the market. that this commodity cycle is a 1-2-3 structure up. And we
have had no retracement of primary degree till now. The
This means Energy, utilities, staples and materials very reason a sharp retracement is pending before the
sector stocks has more upside left. According to CRB (Reuters Commodity Index) regroups again and
intermarket cycles, the 30 year Berry cycles is linked to heads higher. The real depression activities will start then.
equity cycles. That means equity markets grow and
decay in about 25-30 years cycles. This is what the The world in 2012 will be a strangerg p place with the lower
gold-silver ratio (the metals maze) and volatility cycles billion of the world struggling for food and the top billion
highlight (25 yr cyclicality). This 30 year equity cycle is still getting richer. The hedge funds (the one’s that
inverse of the 30 year commodity cycles. This means survive) which will create news then will be the ones
when equity rises, commodities fall and vice versa. doing Long Water – Short Oil strategies. The world
1975-80 was a commodity market top and an end of beyond 2012 will be ruled by global macro funds, market
equity bear market in US. psychology will gain more prominence, fractal forecasting
might be taught at YALE, Cycles will get their place in
And 2000 was an equity market top in US and a start of statistics as the relentless cyclical change pushes ahead.
a commodity boom.
boom The current commodity boom And all this while we will wonder about the randomness of
should end in the 2024-2030 (Strauss and Hauss) the world we live in, unaware of the simple structures that
metacycle low with potential highs in the 2012-2015 time got us so far.
windows. It is in this time frame equity markets should
make the decade low. Intermarket cycles can extend the
cycle explanations to regional allocations between Asia TONY PLUMMER: FORECASTING FINANCIAL MARKETS
and the west, between inflation and deflation and COLOURS OF INFINITY: ARTHUR C CLARKE
between interest rate and yield cycles. INTERMARKET ANALYSIS: JOHN MURPHY
ECONOMIST: ANGRY CHINA, MAY 3-9, 2008
THE METALS MAZE
MAZE: THE SENTIMENT THEORIST,
THEORIST APR 2008
Sector rotation remains a key intermarket strategy for CASE OF CYCLES: EDWARD R DEWEY
portfolio allocation but in terms of early economic, mid VIX CYCLES: ORPHEUS CAPITALS RESEARCH
economic and late economic than what is classified by THE S CURVE: PIERR FRANCIOS VERHULST
Sam Stovall's five stage economic cycle approach. SOLOMON ASCH THREE LINE EXPERIMENT
Commodity and equity intermarket also suggests that ZIPF’S LAW: GEORGE KINGSLEY ZIPF
materials, metals, chemicals, staples and Pharma could RECLASSIFYING SECTOR ROTATION: ORPHEUS CAPITALS
be defensive and relative performers. Our XTR products
cover global sector rotation and intermarket cycles for Mukul is an MBA and member of MTA since 2006. He has
emerging markets including India and Romania and for worked for the Bombay Stock Exchange and many leading
global sector indices. brokerage houses and banks in India and abroad in senior
research positions before starting on his own in 2005. In his
Intermarket cyclicality can also help move in and out of current profile, he leads a team of research analysts covering
large and small cap sector stocks. The subject can also global assets and emerging markets to generate institutional
research. Orpheus Capitals research is published internationally
help create low correlation combination portfolios to
on Reuters and Thompson platforms. The Global Alternative
better overall portfolio return to risk profile. Research Company is located in Romania. Their coverage
includes emerging markets like India and Eastern Europe. The
company also
l covers M Metals,
t l F
Forex, A
Agro anddE
Energy.
KITCHEN 3 T0 5 3.33
JUGLAR 7 TO 11 10 3*KITCHEN
KUZNETS 20 TO 25
BERRY 25 TO 35 30 3*JUGLAR/9*KITCHEN
KONDRATYEV 45 TO 60
Fi 14
Fig
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