Profesora: Paula Fariña

Ayudante: Diego Escobar.

ECONOMETRÍA.
CII2752- EXAMEN.
9 de diciembre de 2016

1. (8 puntos) Comente:

a) ¿Qué papel desempeña el término de error estocástico i en el análisis de regresión? ¿Cuál

es la diferencia entre el término de error estocástico y el residual ei El error estocástico i
es elemento que le incorpora aleatoriedad a la regresión lineal. Se entiende que la diferencia
entre el valor observado de la variable dependiente y la verdadera recta de regresión (po-
blacional) es i , es decir i = Y − Xβ. Este componente en no observado. Por otro lado
el residuo ei es la Diferencia entre el valor observado de la variable dependiente y el valor
estimado de la recta de regresión, es decir: ei = Y − X β̂. Este valor puede ser calculado
una vez que se estima el modelo.
b) El estimador de un parámetro es una variable aleatoria, pero el parámetro no es aleatorio,
o está fijo. Verdadero. Por ejemplo el estimador del parámetro β es β̂ = (X 0 X)−1 X 0 Y , que
al ser transformación lineal de Y es también aleatoria. Sin embargo el parámetro β es un
valor poblacional. Si bien es desconocido se considera un valor fijo (no aleatorio).
c) Si en una regresión no se cumplen los supuestos de homocedasticidad y no autocorrelación,
esto implica que ya no se cumple que los estimadores MICO sean insesgados, sin embargo
aún serán eficientes. Falso. Es al revés. Los estimadores MICO son insesgados pero no
eficientes.
d ) Explique qué ventajas tiene el estimador de Mı́nimos Cuadrados Generalizados con respecto
al de Mı́nimos Cuadrados en presencia de heterocedasticidad. En caso de heterocedasticidad
los estimadores de MCG además de ser insesgados poseen una varianza menor (son más
eficientes).

2. (5 puntos) Suponga que se le proporciona el siguiente modelo:

Yi = β1 + i .

Determine el estimador de MCO de β1 . ¿Cuál es su varianza? ¿Cuál es la SCR? ¿La estimación

β1 tiene algún sentido intuitivo?
n
X
β̂ = (X 0 X)−1 X 0 Y = n−1 Yi = Ȳ
i=1
 σ2
V (β̂) = σ 2 (X 0 X)−1 =
n
n
X
0
SCR = (Y − X Ȳ ) (Y − X Ȳ ) = (Yi − Ȳ )2 = SCT
i=1

El modelo está indicando que la variable dependiente Y se explica por una constante β1 más un
error. De manera que tiene sentido estimar a la constante mediante la media empı́rica si no hay
variables explicativas.
Ahora considere el modelo de dos variables

Yi = β1 + β2 Xi + i .

¿Vale la pena añadir Xi al modelo? Si no es ası́, ¿por qué molestarse con el análisis de regresión?
En caso que β2 sea significativo tiene sentido incorporarla. Si no es ası́ la mejor estimación
seguirá siendo la media empı́rica y Xi no aportará en la explicación de Yi

3. (10 puntos) Se desea estudiar los factores que afectan al salario de mujeres que son a su vez
jefas de hogar en Chile y madres. Para ello se dispone de la Encuesta CASEN 2015, encuesta
realizada por el Ministerio de Desarrollo Social cada 2 o 3 años con el objetivo de conocer la
situación socioeconómica de los hogares. Se consideran las siguientes variables explicativas:

Edad: indica la edad en años de la encuestada

Superior: variable indicadora que toma el valor 1 si la jefa de hogar realizó estudios supe-
riores completos y 0 si no.
Edad.primogenito: la edad que tenı́a la encuestada al tener su primer hijo.
Cant.hijos: número de hijos que posee la mujer.

Por último la variable Ingreso representa el ingreso mensual de la encuestada en pesos chilenos
(ya sea por motivo trabajo, pensión y/o beneficios del Estado); y será empleada como variable
dependiente. Se proponen 3 modelos alternativos:

Modelo 1

Ingresoi = β1 + β2 Edadi + β3 Edad.primogenitoi + β4 Superiori + β5 Cant.hijosi + i

Modelo 2

ln(Ingresoi ) = β1 + β2 Edadi + β3 Edad.primogenitoi + β4 Superiori + β5 Cant.hijosi + i

Modelo 3

Ingresoi = β1 + β2 Edadi + β3 Edad.primogenitoi + β4 Superiori + i

Los resultados se presentan en el Cuadro 1 y en la Figura 1. Se pide:

a) Complete el Cuadro 1. Analice el ajuste de los tres modelos en términos de la bondad de

ajuste. El R̄2 del modelo 1 es el mayor entre el modelo 1 y 3. El modelo 2 no puede ser
comparado con los restantes modelos ya que se trata de una variable dependiente distinta.
 b) Analice el ajuste de los tres modelos en términos del cumplimiento de supuestos. Indique
claramente si hay supuestos que no se estén cumpliendo. Justifique. Los histogramas de
los 3 modelos muestran que los residuos no son normales en ningún caso. Los gráficos de
residuos estandarizados muestran que hay puntos que se alejan de la nube de puntos general
lo que refleja muchos datos extremos.
c) Empleando el modelo 3: Cuál es la diferencia en el ingreso medio de una jefa de hogar que
tuvo a su primer hijo a los 20 años versus el ingreso medio de una jefa de hogar que lo tuvo
a los 38 años, ceteris paribus? ¿Es esta diferencia significativa?
ˆ 20 ) = βˆ3 (38 − 20) = 18β̂3 = 1728,684
ˆ 38 ) − E(ytotcor
E(ytotcor

Por lo tanto se espera que la jefa de hogar cuyo promogénito nació a sus 38 años tenga un
ingreso $ 1728.684 mayor que la que lo tuvo a los 20 años.

V (18βˆ3 ) = 182 V̂ (β̂3 ) = 49506,45

1728,684
T = 222,5005
= 7,769349 Es una diferencia significativa al 5 % de significancia.
d ) Explique cuál es la diferencia en la interpretación del coeficiente asociado a la educación
superior entre el modelo 1 y el 2.
Para el modelo 1 se tiene que las jefas de hogar con educación superior tiene un ingreso
$1981 mayor que las jefas sin educación superior.
Para el modelo 2 se tiene que las jefas de hogar con educación superior tiene un ingreso
23.8 % mayor que las jefas sin educación superior.
e) Para el modelo 1 determine qué coeficientes son significativos a 5 % de significancia. Explique
que indican los signos asociados a los coeficientes del modelo.
18925,854
Intercepto: 330,031
= 57,34569
−51,958
Edad: 4,604 = −11,2854
87,640
Edad.primogenito: 13,238 = 6,620335
1980,776
Superior: 279,118 = 7,096554
Cant.hijos: −26,026
14,686
= −1,772164
Excepto la cantidad de hijos todos los restantes coeficientes son significativos al 5 % de
significancia. Los signos indican que a mayor edad de la jefa de hogar, menor su ingreso;
a mayor edad en que la jefa de hogar tuvo a su primer hijo, mayor su ingreso; lo ingresos
son mayores para jefas de hogar con educación superior; a mayor cantidad de hijos menor
es el ingreso de la jefa de hogar (sin embargo este último factor no es significativo)
Resumen Descriptivo de los datos

ytotcor edad Cant.hijos Edad.primogenito superior

Min. : 1 Min. : 17.00 Min. : 2.00 Min. : 3.00 0:26492
1st Qu.: 6366 1st Qu.: 43.00 1st Qu.:13.00 1st Qu.: 9.00 1: 2125
Median :15312 Median : 55.00 Median :15.00 Median :12.00
Mean :17018 Mean : 55.42 Mean :12.54 Mean :13.13
3rd Qu.:27694 3rd Qu.: 68.00 3rd Qu.:16.00 3rd Qu.:16.00
Max. :37759 Max. :105.00 Max. :21.00 Max. :42.00
Matrices de Varianzas Covarianzas de los modelos

> vcov(modelo1)
(Intercept) edad Cant.hijos Edad.primogenito superior1
(Intercept) 108920.6376 -744.87526 -2465.12277 -2383.31087 -4731.1239
edad -744.8753 21.19879 -20.99721 -13.33679 115.4493
Cant.hijos -2465.1228 -20.99721 215.67471 69.58934 128.8158
Edad.primogenito -2383.3109 -13.33679 69.58934 175.23989 -690.6748
superior1 -4731.1239 115.44926 128.81577 -690.67476 77906.6011
> vcov(modelo2)
(Intercept) edad Cant.hijos Edad.primogenito superior1
(Intercept) 4.478464e-03 -3.062686e-05 -1.013579e-04 -9.799402e-05 -1.945285e-04
edad -3.062686e-05 8.716256e-07 -8.633372e-07 -5.483657e-07 4.746900e-06
Cant.hijos -1.013579e-04 -8.633372e-07 8.867846e-06 2.861288e-06 5.296487e-06
Edad.primogenito -9.799402e-05 -5.483657e-07 2.861288e-06 7.205297e-06 -2.839831e-05
superior1 -1.945285e-04 4.746900e-06 5.296487e-06 -2.839831e-05 3.203267e-03
> vcov(modelo3)
(Intercept) edad Edad.primogenito superior1
(Intercept) 80750.7728 -984.94320 -1588.03611 -3259.0269
edad -984.9432 19.15602 -6.56235 127.9998
Edad.primogenito -1588.0361 -6.56235 152.79770 -732.2931
superior1 -3259.0269 127.99981 -732.29308 77835.4858
Var Expl Modelo 1 Modelo 2 Modelo 3
Ingreso ln(Ingreso) Ingreso
Intercepto 18925.854 9.020 18628.387
(330.031) (0.067) ( 284.167)
Edad -51.958 -0.003 -54.492
(4.604) (0.0009) (4.377)
Edad.primogenito 87.640 0.006 96.038
(13.238) ( 0.0027) (12.361)
Superior 1980.776 0.238 1996.320
(279.118) (0.056) (278.990)
Cant.hijos -26.026 -0.005
(14.686) (0.003)
n 28517 28517 28517
2
R 0.01044192 0.001986532 0.01033002
2
R̄ 0.01030309 0.001846519 0.0102259
σ̂ 12050 2.444 12050
SCR 4.140014e+12 170306.1 4.140159e+12
SCE 43229688300 338.3184 42767944350
SCT 4.183243e+12 170644.4 4.182927e+12
F 74.43 14.16 98.18
α∗ (F ) 2.2e-16 1.508e-11 2.2e-16

Cuadro 1: Tabla de Coeficientes. Errores estándar entre paréntesis.

 Histograma Res.Est. Res.Est. Res.Est.

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−2 −1 0 1 2 0 10000 20000 20 40 60 80 100

Res.Est. n° de observación edad

Histograma Res.Est. Res.Est. Res.Est.

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−4 −3 −2 −1 0 1 0 10000 20000 20 40 60 80 100

Res.Est. n° de observación edad

Histograma Res.Est. Res.Est. Res.Est.

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Res.Est.

Res.Est.

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−2 −1 0 1 2 0 10000 20000 20 40 60 80 100

Res.Est. n° de observación edad

Figura 1: Gráficos de residuos estandarizados. La fila 1 corresponde al modelo 1, la fila 2 al modelo 2

y la fila 3 al modelo 3.