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2016
2009-2010 As requested by
Airlines sue to stop airlines, ICAO
2013 adopts CORSIA,
1997 EU; IATA calls for
EU “stops the
cap on int’l sets baseline at
At airlines’ request, clock” on ETS
emissions from 2019-2020 average
COP asks ICAO to pending ICAO
2020 (carbon- despite warnings of
act. action.
neutral growth from risks of using future
2020). rather than
historical base
years.
CORSIA’s Offsetting Formula
ICAO Resolution Paragraph 11:
“Recalls its decision at the 39th Session that the amount of CO2
emissions required to be offset by an aeroplane operator in a given
year from 2021 is calculated every year as follows:
A an aeroplane operator’s offset requirement = [% Sectoral x
a)
(an aeroplane operator’s emissions covered by CORSIA in
a given year x the sector’s growth factor in the given year x
that aeroplane operator’s growth factor in the given year);
B Where the sector’s growth factor = (total emissions covered
b)
by CORSIA in a given year – average of total emissions
covered by CORSIA between 2019 and 2020) / total
emissions covered by CORSIA in the given year
EDF’s Assumptions
Numbers
According to the most recent ICAO Council “Global
Environmental Trends” document, emissions in 2019 were
approximately 555 MMT (million metric tonnes) of CO2
Coverage
1200
800
600
2020
200
0
CORSIA Post-COVID Demand
1000
Aviation Emissions (Million tCO2)
800
600
400
200
1000
800
Aviation Emissions (Million tCO2)
600
400
200
1000
Aviation Emissions (Million tCO2)
800
600
400
200
1000
Aviation Emissions (Million tCO2)
800
600
400
200
1000
800
Million tCO2
600
400
200
400
300
200
100
Pilot Phase
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
The “V”: Full recovery by 2021, Baseline 2019-2020:
PPFM modulates the increase in offset obligation
Scenario 1: Full, Fast Emissions Rebound
+ Flexibility Mechanism
800 Anticipated CORSIA Pilot Phase (2021-
2023) Demand in Scenario 1*
High Severe Extreme
700
2019-2020
158 335 437
Baseline
600 With
125 157 123
Flexibility
500
Million tCO2
400
Applying the Given Year 2020
Flexibility Mechanism in the
300 Pilot Phase (2021-2023)
allows airlines to reduce their
obligation from the baseline
amount (dotted lines) to the
200
shaded area
100
Pilot Phase
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
The “V”: Full recovery by 2021, Baseline 2019 only:
Offset demand would increase 15%
Emissions Gap if Baseline Change to 2019
Scenario 1: Full, Fast Emissions Rebound
800 Anticipated CORSIA
Pilot Phase Demand
Pre-COVID19
700
= 78 MtCO2
400
300
200
100
Pilot Phase
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
In “V” Scenario 1, with original 2019-2020 Baseline,
PPFM modulates offset obligation
Scenario 1: Full, Fast Emissions Rebound
2019-2020 Baseline Obligation vs. 2019 Changed Baseline Obligation
500
Pre-COVID Anticipated Demand
350 335
300
Million tCO2
250
200
158 157
150
125 123
100 92 92 92
78
50
0
Base Case High Impact Severe Impact Extreme Impact
Scenario 2
The “V”: Slightly Attenuated
Rebound, Dampened Long Term
Growth
Scenario 2 : “V”, Baseline 2019-2020: PPFM reduces
offset obligation to nearly pre-COVID levels
Scenario 2: Slightly Attenuated Rebound,
Dampened Long Term Growth Anticipated CORSIA Pilot Phase (2021-
800 2023) Demand in Scenario 2*
High Severe Extreme
2019-2020
700 19 195 298
Baseline
With
17 105 96
Flexibility
600
500
Million tCO2
400
300
200
100
Pilot Phase
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Scenario 2 : “V”, Baseline 2019-2020: PPFM reduces
offset obligation to nearly pre-COVID levels
Scenario 2: Slightly Attenuated Rebound,
Dampened Long Term Growth + Flexibility Mechanism Anticipated CORSIA Pilot Phase (2021-
800 2023) Demand in Scenario 2*
High Severe Extreme
700
2019-2020
19 195 298
Baseline
With
17 105 96
Flexibility
600
500
Million tCO2
400
300
200
100
Pilot Phase
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
The “V”: Dampened emissions, Baseline 2019 only:
Offset obligation would vanish until 2024
Emissions Gap if Changed to 2019 Baseline
Scenario 2: Slightly Attenuated Rebound,
Dampened Long Term Growth
800 Anticipated CORSIA
Pilot Phase Demand
700
Pre-COVID19
= 78 MtCO2
600
Anticipated CORSIA
Pilot Phase Demand
500 in Scenario 2
= 0 MtCO2
Million tCO2
400
300
200
100
Pilot Phase
Pilot Phase
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
The “V”: PPFM reduces offset obligation to pre-COVID
levels; 2019-only baseline eliminates offset obligation
Scenario 2: Slightly Attenuated Rebound, Dampened Long Term Growth
2019-2020 Baseline Obligation vs. 2019 Changed Baseline Obligation
500
350
300
272
Million tCO2
250
200
150
105
95 96
100
78
50
17
0 0 0
0
Base Case High Impact Severe Impact Extreme Impact
Scenario 3
The “U”: Slow Recovery,
Dampened Long Term Growth
The “U”: Baseline 2019-2020:
Pilot Phase Offset Obligation Greatly Reduced
Scenario 3: Slow Recovery, Dampened Long Term Growth
800
400
300
200
100
Pilot Phase
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
The “U”: Baseline 2019-2020:
Pilot Phase Offset Obligation Greatly Reduced
Scenario 3: Slow Recovery,
800
Dampened Long Term Growth + Flexibility Mechanism
400
300
200
100
Pilot Phase
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
The “U”: Baseline 2019-only:
Offset Obligation would vanish until 2025
Emissions Gap if Changed to 2019 Baseline
Scenario 3: Slow Recovery, Dampened Long Term Growth Anticipated CORSIA
800 Pilot Phase Demand
Pre-COVID19
= 78 MtCO2
700
Anticipated CORSIA
600 Pilot Phase Demand
in Scenario 3
500
= 0 MtCO2
Million tCO2
400
300
200
100
Pilot Phase
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
The “U”: Baseline 2019-only: Pilot Phase offset
obligation would vanish
Scenario 3: Slow Recovery, Dampened Long Term Growth
2019-2020 Baseline Obligation vs. 2019 Changed Baseline Obligation
500
Pre-COVID Anticipated Demand
350
300
Million tCO2
250
200
150
100
78
50
29
22
10 9 14 12
0 0 0
0
Base Case High Impact Severe Impact Extreme Impact
If baseline were changed to 2019, offset obligation
in the “U” Scenario would be delayed beyond the
Pilot Phase
Scenario 3: (“U”)
Years with
No Offset 4 5 5
years years years
Obligation
400
300
200
100
Pilot Phase
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
The L: Emissions Level Off. Under Baseline 2019-2020,
no offset obligations
Scenario 4: Emissions Fall, then Level Off + Flexibility Mechanism
800
Anticipated CORSIA Pilot Phase (2021-
2023) Demand in Scenario 4
High Severe Extreme
700
2019-2020
0 0 0
Baseline
600 With
0 0 0
Flexibility
400
300
200
100
Pilot Phase
Pilot Phase
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
The “L”: Emissions Level Off. Baseline 2019-only:
Offset obligations would vanish beyond the Pilot Phase
Emissions Gap if Baseline Changed to 2019
800 Scenario 4: Emissions Fall, then Level Off
in Scenario 4
400 = 0 MtCO2
300
200
100
Pilot Phase
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
The L: Regardless of baseline, there will be no offset
obligation in the Pilot Phase
Scenario 4: Slow Recovery, Dampened Long Term Growth
2019-2020 Baseline Obligation vs. 2019 Changed Baseline Obligation
500
350
300
Million tCO2
250
200
150
100
78
50
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0
Base Case High Impact Severe Impact Extreme Impact
Scenario 5
The Overshoot “V”: Emissions
Exceed Pre-COVID Projections
The “V”: When emissions overshoot pre-COVID
projections, all scenarios see increased obligation
Scenario 5: Emissions Exceed Pre-COVID Projections
900
coverage
400
300
200
100
Pilot Phase
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
The “V”: When emissions overshoot pre-COVID
projections, all scenarios see increased obligation
Scenario 5: Emissions Exceed Pre-COVID Projections +
900
Flexibility Mechanism
Anticipated CORSIA Pilot Phase (2021-
2023) Demand in Scenario 5
800
High Severe Extreme
2019-2020
205 382 485
700 Baseline
With
156 172 131
Flexibility
600
*These numbers reflect 100% coverage, while
the shaded area in the chart reflects 60%
coverage
Million tCO2
500
400
300
200
100
Pilot Phase
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
The “V”: When emissions overshoot pre-COVID
projections, a 2019 baseline would result in increased
obligation
Emissions Gap if Changed to 2019 Baseline
900 Scenario 5: Emissions Exceed Pre-COVID Projections
Anticipated CORSIA
800
Pilot Phase Demand
Pre-COVID19
= 78 MtCO2
700
Anticipated CORSIA
600
Pilot Phase Demand
in Scenario 4
= 139 MtCO2
Million tCO2
500
400
300
200
100
Pilot Phase
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
The “V”: PPFM would mitigate offset obligation
commensurate with 2019-only baseline
Scenario 5: Emissions Overshoot
2019-2020 PPFM Obligation vs. 2019 Changed Baseline Obligation
500 485
350
300
Million tCO2
250
205
200
172
156
150 139 139 139
131
100
78
50
0
Base Case High Impact Severe Impact Extreme Impact
Pilot Phase Post-COVID Scenarios
(Pre-COVID BAU Demand=78)*
2019-2020 Baseline* 2019 Baseline*
Scenario BAU*
High Severe Extreme High Severe Extreme
S1 (“V”) 78 158 335 437 92 92 92
S1+Flexibility - 125 157 123 72 44 26
S2 (“V”) - 19 195 298 0 0 0
S2+Flexibility - 17 105 96 0 0 0
S3 (“U”) - 10 22 29 0 0 0
S3+Flexibility - 9 14 12 0 0 0
S4 (“L”) - 0 0 0 0 0 0
S4+Flexibility - 0 0 0 0 0 0
S5 (“V”) - 205 382 485 139 139 139
S5+Flexibility - 156 172 131 105 62 37
1 2 3
Council has ensured
Changes to post-Pilot
Changing the baseline CORSIA ample Pilot
Phase offset
to 2019 causes offset Phase supply;
obligation largely
obligations in the Pilot Flexibility Mechanism
depend on timing and
Phase to vanish in greatly reduces the
extent of aviation’s
most scenarios Pilot Phase offset
rebound from COVID
obligation
Bottom Line:
Annie Petsonk
International Counsel
apetsonk@edf.org