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The
expansion would be supported by a strong import demand from Asian countries,
especially the Philippines. Purchases by Brazil and the United States could also rise,
while deliveries to African countries might diminish. The 2010 trade recovery would be
sustained by increasedexports by Thailand which look set to rebound, but also by China,
Myanmar and Viet Nam, compensating for reduced shipments from Cambodia, the
United States and Uruguay.
Global rice utilization in 2010 is projected to expand by 8 million tonnes to 454 million
tonnes, with the bulk of this volume, some 389 million tonnes, anticipated to be
consumed as food, 1.5 percent more than in 2009. As a result, per caput food
consumption is expected remain largely unchanged at 57.3 kilograms, being sustained by
government programmes that have helped dampen the effects of stubbornly high prices
across regions.
Following improved 2009 production estimates, the FAO forecast of world stocks at the
close of the marketing years ending in 2010 has been raised by 6 million tonnes to 123
million tonnes, which represents a 1 percent drop from opening levels. Much of the
contraction is expected to stem in the five major exporting countries, which, as a group,
are forecast to close the year with a 24 percent draw down to 24.5 million tonnes.
Conversely, rice importing countries, such as Indonesia and the Republic of Korea, are
expected to build their inventories. Relative to world consumption, global rice reserves
appear ample and sufficient to cover roughly 27 percent of utilization in 2010.
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Outlook future
Wet weather in Asia is hurting the harvesting of rice and coffee beans as
governments seek to bring relief to those displaced by rising waters. The flooding
adds to storms earlier this year in Pakistan and the Philippines that cut supplies.
Thailand, the world’s biggest rice exporter, may cut production from the nation’s
main crop by as much as 20 percent, likely extending a rally in prices, Thai Rice
Mills Association said two days ago. Flooding damaged 1.7 million rai (0.7 million
acres) of farmland, including 1.3 million rai of rice, according to Farm
Minister Theera Wongsamut.
Which countries produce and export the most rice?
Rice is a food staple worldwide and China is the world's leading rice producing country,
producing just over one-third (33.9%) of the world's rice supply. Thailand is the world's leading
rice exporter, however, and it's exporting 28.3% of the world's rice export. India is the world's
second largest producer and exporter.
• Gujranwala
• Hafizabad
• Sheikhupura
• Sialkot
• Larkana
• Jacobabad
• Shikarpur
• Badin
• Dadu
• Thatta
While Pakistan is a major producer of several key agricultural commodities, the sector continues to suffer
from major inefficiencies. Although the government has taken some important steps towards investing in and
modernising key sectors such as dairy, more investment is needed in the country's overburdened
infrastructure. For example, expansions in rice production, which could potentially become a majorexport
crop and foreign currency earner, is hindered by poor transport and power infrastructure, which are
persistent concerns in Pakistan. Unreliable irrigation and water supply also leaves crops at the mercy of the
weather. While growers can put pressure on the government to invest in infrastructure, the current volatile
political climate and sagging economy means that such investments will not be a high priority.
Wheat production for 2010 will once again fall short of the government production target of 25.0mn tonnes,
with BMI forecasting production of 23,214mn tonnes. With production having increased significantly in the
2008/09 year by 14.7% from the year before, the government hoped that a further increase would be
feasible. However, water scarcity continues to be an issue, as the 2009 monsoon brought a well-below
average level of rain, exacerbating the problem, as did a 0.22% drop in the cultivation area as compared to
2009.
Despite the persistent high prices, demand for wheat rose 1.8% in 2009 to 22.80mn tonnes, with demand
expected to increase again by 2.9% in 2010. To 2014 we forecast growth of wheat consumption of almost
6% from the 2009 level to 25.45mn tonnes. As the staple food and the cheapest source of carbohydrates,
demand for wheat is very inelastic and may even increase in times of high prices With our long-term
forecasts showing that wheat consumption will soon outpace production, Pakistan will soon find itself in the
undesirable position of being reliant on imports to meet domestic demand, and therefore vulnerable to price
fluctuations on the world markets.
For 2010 we expect that limited irrigation water and a large fall in planted area after disappointing prices for
the 2009 crop will see rice production fall sharply.
Pakistan is facing a large deficit in sugar production in 2010, and much of the blame for this can be put down
to poor business practices in the sugar milling sector.
In March 2010 Pakistani sugar mills appealed to the government for a 35% tax on imported sugar, with
worries over cheap sugar imports as a result of the significant drop in international prices.
Following their January peak, international sugar prices started to plunge, as the market began to price in a
recovery in global sugar production over 2010; this will have an impact on domestic prices and could
continue to discourage cane production. After having fallen in 2009, sugar production in Pakistan is not
expected to record a strong recovery in 2010. Output will continue to fall short of domestic demand, which
will continue to rise steadily along with the growing population.
We forecast real GDP growth to come in at a disappointing 2.4% in 2010 and 2.2% in 2011.