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(1) If you toss three dice one time, what are the points in the sample space?

How many points


are there? Which points correspond to throwing exactly a 7 with the three dice?
There are 216 points in the sample space, 15 of which total 7. die 1
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die 2 die 3 event total # totaling 7
1 1 (1, 1, 1) 3 15
1 2 (1, 1, 2) 4
1 3 (1, 1, 3) 5
1 4 (1, 1, 4) 6
1 5 (1, 1, 5) 7
1 6 (1, 1, 6) 8
2 1 (1, 2, 1) 4
2 2 (1, 2, 2) 5
2 3 (1, 2, 3) 6
2 4 (1, 2, 4) 7
2 5 (1, 2, 5) 8
2 6 (1, 2, 6) 9
3 1 (1, 3, 1) 5
3 2 (1, 3, 2) 6
3 3 (1, 3, 3) 7
3 4 (1, 3, 4) 8
3 5 (1, 3, 5) 9
3 6 (1, 3, 6) 10
4 1 (1, 4, 1) 6
4 2 (1, 4, 2) 7
4 3 (1, 4, 3) 8
4 4 (1, 4, 4) 9
4 5 (1, 4, 5) 10
4 6 (1, 4, 6) 11
5 1 (1, 5, 1) 7
5 2 (1, 5, 2) 8
5 3 (1, 5, 3) 9
5 4 (1, 5, 4) 10
5 5 (1, 5, 5) 11
5 6 (1, 5, 6) 12
6 1 (1, 6, 1) 8
6 2 (1, 6, 2) 9
6 3 (1, 6, 3) 10
6 4 (1, 6, 4) 11
6 5 (1, 6, 5) 12
6 6 (1, 6, 6) 13
1 1 (2, 1, 1) 4
1 2 (2, 1, 2) 5
1 3 (2, 1, 3) 6
1 4 (2, 1, 4) 7
1 5 (2, 1, 5) 8
1 6 (2, 1, 6) 9
2 1 (2, 2, 1) 5
2 2 (2, 2, 2) 6
2 3 (2, 2, 3) 7
2 4 (2, 2, 4) 8
2 5 (2, 2, 5) 9
2 6 (2, 2, 6) 10
3 1 (2, 3, 1) 6
3 2 (2, 3, 2) 7
3 3 (2, 3, 3) 8
3 4 (2, 3, 4) 9
3 5 (2, 3, 5) 10
3 6 (2, 3, 6) 11
4 1 (2, 4, 1) 7
4 2 (2, 4, 2) 8
4 3 (2, 4, 3) 9
4 4 (2, 4, 4) 10
4 5 (2, 4, 5) 11
4 6 (2, 4, 6) 12
5 1 (2, 5, 1) 8
5 2 (2, 5, 2) 9
5 3 (2, 5, 3) 10
5 4 (2, 5, 4) 11
5 5 (2, 5, 5) 12
5 6 (2, 5, 6) 13
6 1 (2, 6, 1) 9
6 2 (2, 6, 2) 10
6 3 (2, 6, 3) 11
6 4 (2, 6, 4) 12
6 5 (2, 6, 5) 13
6 6 (2, 6, 6) 14
1 1 (3, 1, 1) 5
1 2 (3, 1, 2) 6
1 3 (3, 1, 3) 7
1 4 (3, 1, 4) 8
1 5 (3, 1, 5) 9
1 6 (3, 1, 6) 10
2 1 (3, 2, 1) 6
2 2 (3, 2, 2) 7
2 3 (3, 2, 3) 8
2 4 (3, 2, 4) 9
2 5 (3, 2, 5) 10
2 6 (3, 2, 6) 11
3 1 (3, 3, 1) 7
3 2 (3, 3, 2) 8
3 3 (3, 3, 3) 9
3 4 (3, 3, 4) 10
3 5 (3, 3, 5) 11
3 6 (3, 3, 6) 12
4 1 (3, 4, 1) 8
4 2 (3, 4, 2) 9
4 3 (3, 4, 3) 10
4 4 (3, 4, 4) 11
4 5 (3, 4, 5) 12
4 6 (3, 4, 6) 13
5 1 (3, 5, 1) 9
5 2 (3, 5, 2) 10
5 3 (3, 5, 3) 11
5 4 (3, 5, 4) 12
5 5 (3, 5, 5) 13
5 6 (3, 5, 6) 14
6 1 (3, 6, 1) 10
6 2 (3, 6, 2) 11
6 3 (3, 6, 3) 12
6 4 (3, 6, 4) 13
6 5 (3, 6, 5) 14
6 6 (3, 6, 6) 15
1 1 (4, 1, 1) 6
1 2 (4, 1, 2) 7
1 3 (4, 1, 3) 8
1 4 (4, 1, 4) 9
1 5 (4, 1, 5) 10
1 6 (4, 1, 6) 11
2 1 (4, 2, 1) 7
2 2 (4, 2, 2) 8
2 3 (4, 2, 3) 9
2 4 (4, 2, 4) 10
2 5 (4, 2, 5) 11
2 6 (4, 2, 6) 12
3 1 (4, 3, 1) 8
3 2 (4, 3, 2) 9
3 3 (4, 3, 3) 10
3 4 (4, 3, 4) 11
3 5 (4, 3, 5) 12
3 6 (4, 3, 6) 13
4 1 (4, 4, 1) 9
4 2 (4, 4, 2) 10
4 3 (4, 4, 3) 11
4 4 (4, 4, 4) 12
4 5 (4, 4, 5) 13
4 6 (4, 4, 6) 14
5 1 (4, 5, 1) 10
5 2 (4, 5, 2) 11
5 3 (4, 5, 3) 12
5 4 (4, 5, 4) 13
5 5 (4, 5, 5) 14
5 6 (4, 5, 6) 15
6 1 (4, 6, 1) 11
6 2 (4, 6, 2) 12
6 3 (4, 6, 3) 13
6 4 (4, 6, 4) 14
6 5 (4, 6, 5) 15
6 6 (4, 6, 6) 16
1 1 (5, 1, 1) 7
1 2 (5, 1, 2) 8
1 3 (5, 1, 3) 9
1 4 (5, 1, 4) 10
1 5 (5, 1, 5) 11
1 6 (5, 1, 6) 12
2 1 (5, 2, 1) 8
2 2 (5, 2, 2) 9
2 3 (5, 2, 3) 10
2 4 (5, 2, 4) 11
2 5 (5, 2, 5) 12
2 6 (5, 2, 6) 13
3 1 (5, 3, 1) 9
3 2 (5, 3, 2) 10
3 3 (5, 3, 3) 11
3 4 (5, 3, 4) 12
3 5 (5, 3, 5) 13
3 6 (5, 3, 6) 14
4 1 (5, 4, 1) 10
4 2 (5, 4, 2) 11
4 3 (5, 4, 3) 12
4 4 (5, 4, 4) 13
4 5 (5, 4, 5) 14
4 6 (5, 4, 6) 15
5 1 (5, 5, 1) 11
5 2 (5, 5, 2) 12
5 3 (5, 5, 3) 13
5 4 (5, 5, 4) 14
5 5 (5, 5, 5) 15
5 6 (5, 5, 6) 16
6 1 (5, 6, 1) 12
6 2 (5, 6, 2) 13
6 3 (5, 6, 3) 14
6 4 (5, 6, 4) 15
6 5 (5, 6, 5) 16
6 6 (5, 6, 6) 17
1 1 (6, 1, 1) 8
1 2 (6, 1, 2) 9
1 3 (6, 1, 3) 10
1 4 (6, 1, 4) 11
1 5 (6, 1, 5) 12
1 6 (6, 1, 6) 13
2 1 (6, 2, 1) 9
2 2 (6, 2, 2) 10
2 3 (6, 2, 3) 11
2 4 (6, 2, 4) 12
2 5 (6, 2, 5) 13
2 6 (6, 2, 6) 14
3 1 (6, 3, 1) 10
3 2 (6, 3, 2) 11
3 3 (6, 3, 3) 12
3 4 (6, 3, 4) 13
3 5 (6, 3, 5) 14
3 6 (6, 3, 6) 15
4 1 (6, 4, 1) 11
4 2 (6, 4, 2) 12
4 3 (6, 4, 3) 13
4 4 (6, 4, 4) 14
4 5 (6, 4, 5) 15
4 6 (6, 4, 6) 16
5 1 (6, 5, 1) 12
5 2 (6, 5, 2) 13
5 3 (6, 5, 3) 14
5 4 (6, 5, 4) 15
5 5 (6, 5, 5) 16
5 6 (6, 5, 6) 17
6 1 (6, 6, 1) 13
6 2 (6, 6, 2) 14
6 3 (6, 6, 3) 15
6 4 (6, 6, 4) 16
6 5 (6, 6, 5) 17
6 6 (6, 6, 6) 18
(2) In your sock drawer, you have only pairs of white socks and pairs of blue socks. You
randomly select two pairs of socks. Identify the points in the sample space.
pair 1
white pair
white pair
blue pair
blue pair

(3) Vivian is in Reno, and Michael is in Smalltown. The two cities are 300 miles apart. Using the
same highway, Vivian drives toward Smalltown and Michael drives toward Reno. Describe a
sample space that represents the number of miles each has driven when they eventually pass
each other.
The sample space would be all positive numbers x and y such that x + y = 300; e.g., (100,
200); (250.5, 49.5), etc.
pair 2 event
white pair (white pair, white pair)
blue pair (white pair, blue pair)
white pair (blue pair, white pair)
blue pair (blue pair, blue pair)
(1) If you roll two dice, what is the probability that the total is 9?

We already know that there are 36 points in the sample space for a roll
of two six-sided dice. Four of these points represent a total of 9: (3, 6); (4,
5); (5, 4); (6, 3).
The probability of rolling a total of 9 is thus 4/36, or 1/9.

(2) Michael and Vivian went to Smalltown Bagels for a snack. They asked the
store owners (Wendy and Wayne) how many children they have. Wendy and
Wayne said they have two children. What is the chance that they have one boy
and one girl?

Given two children, each of whom could be one of two genders, there
are four possible permutations. Two of these permutations satisfy the
requirement: (girl, boy) and (boy, girl). child 1 child 2
The probability that Wendy and Wayne have one boy and one girl is thus
2/4, or 1/2. girl girl
girl boy
boy girl
boy boy
event

(girl, girl)
(girl, boy)
(boy, girl)
(boy, boy)
(1) What is the probability of drawing a spade or a club from a deck of 52 cards?

Since no card is both a spade and a club, the two events are mutually exclusive, and the
probability of either of them happening is the sum of their individual probabilities. Of the 52
cards in a deck, 13 are spades, and so the individual probability of drawing a spade is 1/4.
Since there are also 13 clubs, the individual probability of drawing a club is also 1/4.
The probability of drawing either a spade or a club is thus 1/4 + 1/4, or 1/2.

(2) What is the probability that if two dice are tossed, the total is 7 or 2?

Since the total cannot be both 7 and 2, the probability is the sum of the individual
probabilities. We know that there are 36 points in the sample space. Six of these points
represent a total of 7, and so the probability of rolling a total of 7 is 6/36. One of these
points represents a total of 2 ,and so the probability of rolling a 2 is 1/36.
The probability of rolling either a 7 or a 2 is thus 6/36 + 1/36, or 7/36.

(3) Of the students at Smalltown High School, 30% received an A in math this semester, 20%
received an A in science, and 10% received an A in both math and science. What is the chance
that a single student at Smalltown High School received an A in either science or math this
semester?

Since a student could receive an A in both science and math, the two events are not
mutually exclusive, and the probability of either event happening is the sum of their
individual probabilities, minus the probability of both events occurring.
The probability of a student receiving an A in either science or math is thus 20% + 30% -
10%, or 40%.
(1) What is the probability of obtaining a total of 10 or less with a simultaneous toss
of two dice?
It is easier to find the probability of obtaining a total of 11 or 12, and so we will
instead find that probability and subtract it from 1.

We know that there are 36 points in the same space. Two of these points (5, 6)
and (6, 5) total 11, and one (6, 6) totals 12. Thus, the probability of rolling 11 or
12 is 3/36, or 1/12.
The probability of obtaining a total of 10 or less is thus 1 - 1/12, or 11/12.

(2) What is the probability of not drawing a face card from a deck of 52 cards?
It is easier to find the probability of drawing a face card, and so we will instead
find that probability and subtract it from 1.

We know that there are 52 points in the sample space. Twelve of them are face
cards (three face cards * four suits). Thus, the probability of drawing a face card
is 12/52.
The probability of not drawing a face card is thus 1 - 12/52, or 40/52.
(1) If two dice are thrown and the total is 6, what is the probability that the first die shows a
3?
A = the event that die 1 shows a 3. B = the event that the total is 6.
P(A|B) = P(A and B)/P(B)
P(A and B) = the probability that die 1 shows a 3 and the total is 6. There is one such
event in the sample space: a roll of (3, 3). P(A and B) = 1/36.
P(B) = the probability that the total is 6. There are five such events in the sample space.
P(B) = 5/36.
P(A|B) = 1/36 divided by 5/36, or 1/5.

(2) If an urn contains two white and two black balls and you draw two balls (without replacing
the first ball), what is the probability of drawing one white ball and one black ball?

We can solve this by considering the probability of the first ball being white and the
second being black, and of the first ball being black and the second ball being white.
Since these are mutually exclusive events, the probability of either one of these events
occurring is the sum of their individual probabilities.

Each of the two individual probabilities can be found using the formula P(A and B) = P(A|
B) * P(B).
Let W1 be the event that ball 1 is white and B 2 be the event that ball 2 is black. Then
P(W1 and B2) = P(W1) × P(B2|W1).
P(W1) = 2/4.
With one white and two black balls remaining in the urn, P(B 2|W1) = 2/3.
The probability of drawing first a white ball, then a black ball is thus 2/4 * 2/3, or 4/12 =
1/3.
By the same logic, the probability of drawing first a black ball, then a white ball is also
1/3.
The sum of these individual probabilities is 2/3; i.e., there is a 2/3 chance that one of the
two balls drawn will be white and the other black.

This problem could also have been solved using complements. The probability of
drawing one white and one black ball could be seen as:

1 - probability both balls are white (1/6) - probability both balls are black (1/6) = 2/3
(3) About 5% of men and 0.25% of women are colorblind. If you are told a person is colorblind,
what is the probability that the person is a man? Hint: The probability that a person is
colorblind is P(man and colorblind) + P(woman and colorblind).
P(A): The probability that a person is a man (which we will take to equal 1/2).

P(B): The probability that the person in question is colorblind = .02625. Note: This is the
probability that the person is a colorblind man, plus the probability that the person is a
colorblind woman. This involves two joint probabilities. Since there is only a 1/2 chance
that our person will be a man, we divide the .05 probability of a man being colorblind by
2 (thus representing its effect on our sample space, which includes women). By the
same logic, the probability that the person is a colorblind woman is .0025/2. The sum of
these two terms is .02625.
P(A|B) = P(A and B)/P(B)
P(A and B) = the probability that a person is both a man and colorblind = .025
P(A|B)--the probability that a person known to be colorblind is a man:
0.9524

Another way to see it. Consider 100 randomly chosen people


50 men 2.5 color blind
50 women 1/8 color blind
so if person is color blind chance is (2.5/100)/((2.5+.125)/100) that they are a man.
This is .9524
(4) A Smalltown family has two children, of whom at least one is a boy. What is the chance
that both children are boys?

A common solution to this problem is 1/3, drawing on the sample space shown to the
right and the fact that 1 event in this sample space of 3 meets the requirement of the
problem. child 1
girl
boy
boy
girl girl
child 2 event
boy (girl, boy) in reduced sample space
girl (boy, girl) in reduced sample space
boy (boy, boy) in reduced sample space
not in sample space!
(1) Are these two events independent: the total on two dice is 7, and one of them shows a 3?
P(A) = probability of a total of 7 = 6/36
P(B) = probability of one die showing a 3 (which we will assume here means "one or
both show a 3") = 11/36
We know that P(A and B) = 2/36; of the 36 points in the sample space, only (3, 4) and (4,
3) total a 7 and contain at least one 3.
Since (6/36)*(11/36) ≠ 2/36, the two events are not independent.

(2) Are these two events independent: the total on two dice is 5, and one of them shows a 3?
P(A) = probability of a total of 5 = 4/36
P(B) = probability of one die (or both) showing a 3 = 11/36
P(A and B) = 2/36; of the 36 points in the sample space, only (2, 3) and (3, 2) total 5 and
contain at least one 3.
Since (4/36)*(11/36) ≠ 2/36, the two events are not independent.
(3) What is the probability that when you toss a coin ten times, it lands on heads
all ten times?
The probability is .510, or 0.0009765625

(4) Let A = the event that the stock price of Company A increases during the next
12 months and B = the event that the stock price of Company B increases during
the next 12 months. Are A and B independent events?

Probably not; the performance of Company A and Company B are almost


certainly both tied to the perfomance of the overall economy. So if A does
well it means the economy is more likely to have done well which means
that it is now more likely that B did well.

(5) Let C = the event that the Celtics win next year's NBA championship and R = the
event that the Red Sox win next year's World Series. Are C and R independent
events?
In an ideal world, yes.

(6) Can two mutually exclusive events be independent?

No, since the occurrence of one would preclude the occurrence of the other.
P(A and B) = 0 but P(A)*P(B)>0.
(1) Is the number of aces dealt in a five-card poker hand a discrete random
variable?
Yes.

(2) Is a randomly selected person's height a discrete random variable?


No; it is a continuous random variable.

(3) Is the number of gas stations that a Smalltown resident will have to
choose from in 2013 a discrete random variable?
Yes, assuming that there is a finite number of gas stations that the
town could support.
(4) For a toss of two fair coins, determine the expected value, variance, and
standard deviation of the number of heads tossed.
x (# of heads tossed)
0
1
2

E(X): 1
2
σ (X): 0.5
σ(X): 0.707106781186548

(5) Suppose that the U.S. economy next year has a 60% chance of a boom, a
30% chance of a recession, and a 10% chance of a depression. The following
table gives the return on Vivian's investment portfolio under each scenario.
scenario
boom
recession
depression

Determine the expected value, variance, and standard deviation of the


annual return on Vivian's portfolio.

E(X): 13.00%
σ2(X): 0.0441
σ(X): 21%
p (individual probability) xp p*(x - E(X))2
0.25 0 0.25
0.5 0.5 0
0.25 0.5 0.25

x (portfolio return) p (individual probability) xp p*(x - E(X))2


30% 60% 18.00% 0.01734
-10% 30% -3.00% 0.01587
-20% 10% -2.00% 0.01089
(1) Gregory shoots 50 free throws. Is the number of free throws he makes a continuous
random variable?
No; it is a discrete random variable.

(2) Is the percentage change in the price of an ounce of gold during the next year a continuous
random variable?

Yes; it is a value that could in theory range from -1 to positive infinity. Moreover, it
would be calculated to a degree of precision that would make it impractical to treat as a
discrete random variable even if an upper bound were assumed to exist.

(3) Is the time you wait in line to place an order at a sandwich shop a continuous random
variable?

In theory, this would be a continuous random variable, since time is infinitely


subdividable, but it could also be treated as a discrete random variable, if an upper
bound were assumed and if the time in line were to be recorded to, say, the nearest
minute. (It would likely be more practical to treat it as a continuous random variable,
however.)
(4) What area corresponds to the probability that a Smalltown adult man is between 65 and
75 inches tall?
The area under PDf in screen AREA UNDER PDF=PROBABILITY between 65 and 75 in bell
curve graph.

(5) According to the PDF given in this section, are more Smalltown adult men about 60" tall or
about 80" tall?
Density is higher at 60 than at 80 in screen AREA UNDER PDF=PROBABILITY so more men are
around 60 inches tall than around 80 inches tall.

(6) According to the PDF given in this section, what is the probability that on a given day
Smalltown Bagels will use at least 180 pounds of flour?

The chance that Smalltown Bagels uses at least 180 pounds of flour is the area under the
rectangle in AREA UNDER PDF=PROBABILITY to the right of 180. The height of the rectangle
must be 0.02 to make total area under PDF = 1. So desired probability is (200-180)(.02) = 0.40.

(7) According to the PDF given in this section, what is the probability that on a given day
Smalltown Bagels will use at most 190 pounds of flour?
(190-150)(0.02) = 0.80.
The daily demand for bagels at Smalltown Bagels must be a nonnegative integer, yet it can
assume many values (say, 0, 1, 2, ... 1000). When a discrete random variable can assume many
values, it is often useful to approximate it as a continuous random variable. Therefore, assume
that the daily demand for bagels follows the pattern of a normal random variable with μ = 400
and σ = 80.
µ 400
σ 80

(1) What is the probability that Smalltown Bagels sells at most 350 bagels?
0.265985529048701

(2) What is the probability that STB sells at least 500 bagels?
0.105649773666855

(3) What is the probability that STB sells between 380 and 450 bagels?
0.332720796634223 x
or < 380
0.332720796634223 > 450
probability of x in this range
0.401293674317076
0.265985529048701
(4) The final margin of an NFL football game is approximately normally distributed, with a
mean equal to the gambling point spread and a standard deviation of 14 points. Recall the
great 2008 Super Bowl in which the Giants upset the Patriots. The Patriots had been favored
by 12 points. What does that fact imply about the Giants' initial (i.e., pre-game) chances of
winning?
µ 12
σ 14

<

Given a normal distribution with a mean of 12 and a standard deviation of 14, only
~19.5% of the values will be lower than 0; i.e., the point spread implied that bookies
thought that the Giants had only a 19.5% chance of winning.

(5) Before the 2008 Super Bowl, chances were 95% that the Patriots would win by between
_____ and _____ points.
µ - 2*σ
µ + 2*σ
x (final margin) probability of x in this range
0 19.57%

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