Risco, retorno e liquidez

risco e retorno

cuidado com a estatística

liquidez do investimento

preço de compra e venda

Calculando o retorno
data Ibovespa CDI
1995 -1,26% 53,07%
1996 63,76% 27,13%
1997 44,83% 24,58%
1998 -33,46% 28,57%
1999 151,93% 25,13%
2000 -10,72% 17,32%
2001 -11,02% 17,29%
2002 -17,01% 19,11%
2003 97,34% 23,25%
2004 17,81% 16,17%
2005 -3,57% 19,00%
2006 32,93% 15,04%
2007 43,95% 11,82%
2008 -41,22% 12,36%
2009 82,66% 8,60%
2010 1,04% 9,75%
2011 -18,11% 11,60%
2012 7,40% 8,40%
2013 -15,50% 8,06%
2014 -17,96% 10,81%
2015 -13,31% 13,24%
2016 38,93% 14,00%
2017 23,38% 9,93%
2018 15,03% 6,42%
média 18% 17%
Aplicando 100 em 95
data Ibovespa R$ 100,00 CDI R$ 100,00
1995 18,00% R$ 118,00 17,00% R$ 117,00
1996 18,00% R$ 139,24 17,00% R$ 136,89
1997 18,00% R$ 164,30 17,00% R$ 160,16
1998 18,00% R$ 193,88 17,00% R$ 187,39
1999 18,00% R$ 228,78 17,00% R$ 219,24
2000 18,00% R$ 269,96 17,00% R$ 256,52
2001 18,00% R$ 318,55 17,00% R$ 330,12
2002 18,00% R$ 375,89 17,00% R$ 351,15
2003 18,00% R$ 443,55 17,00% R$ 410,84
2004 18,00% R$ 523,38 17,00% R$ 480,68
2005 18,00% R$ 617,59 17,00% R$ 562,40
2006 18,00% R$ 728,76 17,00% R$ 658,01
2007 18,00% R$ 859,94 17,00% R$ 769,87
2008 18,00% R$ 1.014,72 17,00% R$ 900,75
2009 18,00% R$ 1.197,37 17,00% R$ 1.053,87
2010 18,00% R$ 1.412,90 17,00% R$ 1.233,03
2011 18,00% R$ 1.667,22 17,00% R$ 1.442,65
2012 18,00% R$ 1.967,33 17,00% R$ 1.687,90
2013 18,00% R$ 2.321,44 17,00% R$ 1.974,84
2014 18,00% R$ 2.739,30 17,00% R$ 2.310,56
2015 18,00% R$ 3.232,38 17,00% R$ 2.703,36
2016 18,00% R$ 3.814,21 17,00% R$ 3.162,93
2017 18,00% R$ 3.918,94 17,00% R$ 3.241,05
2018 18,00% R$ 4.519,61 17,00% R$ 3.713,90
retorno 4.419,61% 3.613,90%
Será? Bolsa igual ao CDI?
data Ibovespa R$ 100,00 CDI R$ 100,00
1995 -1,26% R$ 98,74 53,07% R$ 153,07
1996 63,76% R$ 161,69 27,13% R$ 194,60
1997 44,83% R$ 234,18 24,58% R$ 242,44
1998 -33,46% R$ 155,81 28,57% R$ 311,72
1999 151,93% R$ 392,54 25,13% R$ 390,05
2000 -10,72% R$ 350,47 17,32% R$ 457,60
2001 -11,02% R$ 311,84 17,29% R$ 536,70
2002 -17,01% R$ 258,80 19,11% R$ 639,25
2003 97,34% R$ 510,71 23,25% R$ 787,86
2004 17,81% R$ 601,67 16,17% R$ 915,29
2005 -3,57% R$ 580,19 19,00% R$ 1.089,20
2006 32,93% R$ 771,25 15,04% R$ 1.253,05
2007 43,95% R$ 1.107,90 11,82% R$ 1.401,16
2008 -41,22% R$ 651,22 12,36% R$ 1.574,32
2009 82,66% R$ 1.189,53 8,60% R$ 1.709,71
2010 1,04% R$ 1.201,90 9,75% R$ 1.876,43
2011 -18,11% R$ 984,23 11,60% R$ 2.094,00
2012 7,40% R$ 1.057,07 8,40% R$ 2.269,83
2013 -15,50% R$ 893,22 8,06% R$ 2.452,86
2014 -17,96% R$ 732,80 10,81% R$ 2.718,10
2015 -13,31% R$ 635,26 13,24% R$ 3.077,94
2016 38,93% R$ 882,57 14,00% R$ 3.508,80
2017 23,38% R$ 1.088,92 9,93% R$ 3.857,05
2018 15,03% R$ 1.252,58 6,42% R$ 4.104,70
retorno 1.152,58% 4.004,70%
 risco = variação no retorno
200%

150%

Ibovespa CDI

100%

50%

0%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

-50%

-100%
Ibovespa x CDI x cad. poupança x IPCA
cad.
data Ibovespa R$ 100,00 CDI R$ 100,00 R$ 100,00 IPCA R$ 100,00
poupança
1995 -1,26% R$ 98,74 53,07% R$ 153,07 39,74% R$ 139,74 22,41% R$ 122,41
1996 63,76% R$ 161,69 27,13% R$ 194,60 16,34% R$ 162,58 9,56% R$ 134,11
1997 44,83% R$ 234,18 24,58% R$ 242,44 16,56% R$ 189,50 5,22% R$ 141,11
1998 -33,46% R$ 155,81 28,57% R$ 311,72 14,44% R$ 216,87 1,66% R$ 143,46
1999 151,93% R$ 392,54 25,13% R$ 390,05 12,25% R$ 243,43 8,94% R$ 156,28
2000 -10,72% R$ 350,47 17,32% R$ 457,60 8,39% R$ 263,86 5,97% R$ 165,61
2001 -11,02% R$ 311,84 17,29% R$ 536,70 8,59% R$ 286,54 7,67% R$ 178,31
2002 -17,01% R$ 258,80 19,11% R$ 639,25 9,14% R$ 312,74 12,53% R$ 200,66
2003 97,34% R$ 510,71 23,25% R$ 787,86 11,10% R$ 347,46 9,30% R$ 219,32
2004 17,81% R$ 601,67 16,17% R$ 915,29 8,10% R$ 375,60 7,60% R$ 235,98
2005 -3,57% R$ 580,19 19,00% R$ 1.089,20 9,18% R$ 410,07 5,69% R$ 249,41
2006 32,93% R$ 771,25 15,04% R$ 1.253,05 8,33% R$ 444,23 3,14% R$ 257,24
2007 43,95% R$ 1.107,90 11,82% R$ 1.401,16 7,70% R$ 478,44 4,45% R$ 268,69
2008 -41,22% R$ 651,22 12,36% R$ 1.574,32 7,90% R$ 516,26 5,90% R$ 284,54
2009 82,66% R$ 1.189,53 8,60% R$ 1.709,71 7,10% R$ 552,91 4,31% R$ 296,81
2010 1,04% R$ 1.201,90 9,75% R$ 1.876,43 6,90% R$ 591,06 5,91% R$ 314,35
2011 -18,11% R$ 984,23 11,60% R$ 2.094,00 7,50% R$ 635,39 6,50% R$ 334,78
2012 7,40% R$ 1.057,07 8,40% R$ 2.269,83 6,58% R$ 677,16 5,84% R$ 354,32
2013 -15,50% R$ 893,22 8,06% R$ 2.452,86 6,32% R$ 719,95 5,91% R$ 375,27
2014 -17,96% R$ 732,80 10,81% R$ 2.718,10 7,02% R$ 770,49 6,41% R$ 399,32
2015 -13,31% R$ 635,26 13,24% R$ 3.077,94 7,94% R$ 831,70 10,67% R$ 441,94
2016 38,93% R$ 882,57 14,00% R$ 3.508,80 8,35% R$ 901,13 6,29% R$ 469,74
2017 23,38% R$ 1.088,92 9,93% R$ 3.857,05 7,00% R$ 964,20 2,95% R$ 483,59
2018 15,03% R$ 1.252,58 6,42% R$ 4.104,70 6,17% R$ 1.023,67 3,75% R$ 501,70
retorno 1.152,58% 4.004,70% 923,67% 401,70%
Risco

Você não pode evitar o risco,

mas pode:
 pesar o risco;
 controlar o risco e
 usar o risco.
TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS.