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Données

observations
Température Rendement rendement vs température
100 45
110 51 90
120 54
130 61
85
140 66
150 70
160 74 80
170 78
180 85 75
190 89
70
n X_bar Y_bar
10 145 67.3
65

60

55

50

45

40
90 110 130 150 170 190

Régression
observations droite de régression
Température Rendement (Xi-X_bar)^2 (Yi-Ybar)^2 (Xi-X_bar)(Y_i-Y_bar) Rend. par régr. hat_Yi Ei=(Yi-hat_Yi)^2 (hat_Yi-bar_Y)^2 beta_0 -2.73939394
100 45 2025 497.29 1003.5 45.5636363636364 0.317685950413 472.46950413223 beta_1 0.4830303
110 51 1225 265.69 570.5 50.3939393939394 0.367309458219 285.8148852158
120 54 625 176.89 332.5 55.2242424242424 1.498769513315 145.82392102847 MS_E ~ sigma^2 0.9030303
130 61 225 39.69 94.5 60.0545454545455 0.893884297521 52.496611570248
140 66 25 1.68999999999999 6.49999999999999 64.8848484848485 1.243562901745 5.8329568411386
150 70 25 7.29000000000002 13.5 69.7151515151515 0.08113865932 5.8329568411387
160 74 225 44.89 100.5 74.5454545454546 0.297520661157 52.496611570248
170 78 625 114.49 267.5 79.3757575757576 1.892708907254 145.82392102847
180 85 1225 313.29 619.5 84.2060606060606 0.630339761249 285.8148852158
190 89 2025 470.89 976.5 89.0363636363636 0.00132231405 472.46950413223

n X_bar Y_bar S_XX S_YY S_XY SS_E SS_R SS_E+SS_R R r


10 145 67.3 8250 1932.1 3985 7.224242424242 1924.8757575758 1932.1 0.99626094 0.99812872

90

85

80

75

70

65 données
droite de régression

60

55

50

45

40
90 110 130 150 170 190

Intervalles de confiance sur beta_0 et beta_1


alpha 0.05 beta_0 = -2.73939393939395 +/- 3.566235264843 beta_0 in -6.305629204237 0.82684133
alpha/2 0.025 beta_1 = 0.483030303030303 +/- 0.024125941453 beta_1 in 0.458904361577 0.50715624
n-2 8 sous-approx. sur-approx.
t_alpha/2;n-2 2.31

95

85

75

données
droite de régression
65 sous-approx.
sur-approx.

55

45

35
90 110 130 150 170 190

Température Rendement Rend. par régr. hat_Yi sous-approx. sur-approx.


100 45 45.5636363636364 39.5848069534926 51.5424657737801
110 51 50.3939393939394 44.1738505692656 56.6140282186132
120 54 55.2242424242424 48.7628941850386 61.6855906634463
130 61 60.0545454545455 53.3519378008116 66.7571531082793
140 66 64.8848484848485 57.9409814165846 71.8287155531124
150 70 69.7151515151515 62.5300250323576 76.9002779979455
160 74 74.5454545454546 67.1190686481306 81.9718404427785
170 78 79.3757575757576 71.7081122639036 87.0434028876116
180 85 84.2060606060606 76.2971558796766 92.1149653324447
190 89 89.0363636363636 80.8861994954496 97.1865277772777

Intervalles de confiance pour la droite de régression


alpha 0.05
alpha/2 0.025
n-2 8
t_alpha/2;n-2 2.31

89

84

79

74

69 données
droite de régression
sous-approx.
sur-approx.
64

59

54

49

44
95 105 115 125 135 145 155 165 175 185 195

Température Rendement Rend. par régr. hat_Yi +/- sous-approx. sur-approx.


100 45 45.5636363636364 1.2880 44.2757 46.8516
110 51 50.3939393939394 1.0923 49.3016 51.4863
120 54 55.2242424242424 0.9187 54.3056 56.1429
130 61 60.0545454545455 0.7818 59.2728 60.8363
140 66 64.8848484848485 0.7034 64.1815 65.5882
150 70 69.7151515151515 0.7034 69.0118 70.4185
160 74 74.5454545454546 0.7818 73.7637 75.3272
170 78 79.3757575757576 0.9187 78.4571 80.2944
180 85 84.2060606060606 1.0923 83.1137 85.2984
190 89 89.0363636363636 1.2880 87.7484 90.3243
Intervalles de prévision
alpha 0.05
alpha/2 0.025
n-2 8
t_alpha/2;n-2 2.31

118

98

78

données
droite de régression
sous-approx.
sur-approx.

58

38

18
50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 210 230 250

Température Rendement Rend. par régr. hat_Yi +/- sous-approx. sur-approx.


50 21.4121212121212 3.2458 18.1663 24.6579
75 33.4878787878788 2.8521 30.6358 36.3399
95 43.1484848484848 2.5956 40.5528 45.7441
100 45 45.5636363636364 2.5418 43.0218 48.1055
105 47.9787878787879 2.4927 45.4861 50.4715
110 51 50.3939393939394 2.4485 47.9454 52.8425
115 52.8090909090909 2.4096 50.3995 55.2187
120 54 55.2242424242424 2.3761 52.8481 57.6004
125 57.6393939393939 2.3484 55.2910 59.9878
130 61 60.0545454545455 2.3266 57.7279 62.3812
135 62.469696969697 2.3109 60.1588 64.7806
140 66 64.8848484848485 2.3015 62.5834 67.1863
145 67.3 2.2983 65.0017 69.5983
150 70 69.7151515151515 2.3015 67.4137 72.0166
155 72.130303030303 2.3109 69.8194 74.4412
160 74 74.5454545454546 2.3266 72.2188 76.8721
165 76.9606060606061 2.3484 74.6122 79.3090
170 78 79.3757575757576 2.3761 76.9996 81.7519
175 81.7909090909091 2.4096 79.3813 84.2005
180 85 84.2060606060606 2.4485 81.7575 86.6546
185 86.6212121212121 2.4927 84.1285 89.1139
190 89 89.0363636363636 2.5418 86.4945 91.5782
200 93.8666666666667 2.6539 91.2128 96.5205
225 105.942424242424 3.0012 102.9412 108.9437
250 118.018181818182 3.4204 114.5977 121.4386

tableau d'analyse de la variance


Source de variation somme des carrés nombre de d.d.l. moyenne des carrés F_0
régression 1,924.88 1 1,924.88 2,131.57
résidus 7.22 8 0.90
total 1,932.10 9

alpha n-2 F0 P-value=P[F_1_1_n-2 > F0]


0.05 8 2,131.57 5.35253472573901E-11

(on rejette H0 si alpha > P-value)