JRC Climate Change Policy Making

2nd updated edition
joint research centre

EUROPEAN COMMISSION
presented at the third Meeting of the Parties

to the Kyoto Protocol (COP13/MOP 3)
3 Dec – 14 Dec, 2007
Bali, Indonesia
2007 EUR 21855 EN/2

European Commission
Joint Research Centre
Contact information
Frank Raes
Address: TP290 I-21020 Ispra (VA)

E-mail: frank.raes@jrc.it
Tel.: +39 0332 789958
Fax: +39 0332 785704
http://www.jrc.ec.europa.eu
the publication can be downloaded from
http://ccu.jrc.it/
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responsible for the use which might be made of this publication.
A great deal of additional information on the European Union is available on the Internet.
It can be accessed through the Europa server
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JRC 41099
EUR 21855 EN/2

ISBN 978-92-79-07297-0
ISSN 1018-5593
Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities
© European Communities, 2007
Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged
Printed in Italy
edited by Frank Raes
joint research centre
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Eimear Kelleher
2007 EUR 21855 EN/2

Foreword
The Joint Research Centre of the European Commission focuses its resources to
respond to the Scientific and Technical (S/T) challenges arising from European
Union policy making. The JRC is also key in fostering synergies with other
sources of S/T support available in the Commission and in the EU Member
States and it cooperates with EU Agencies and International Organisations.

Developing climate change policies is definitely an area where a joint and
integrated approach to the provision of S/T support is required.
Since the first edition of this booklet in 2005, EU climate change policy has
accelerated and, so far, it culminated with a call, in March 2007, for ambitious
integrated Energy and Climate policies by the European Council.
The present edition shows how research activities at the JRC have contributed
to this process, in particular by giving support to the Directorate-General
Environment, which is guiding the development of EU climate change
policies.
It shows,.i.a., the contributions to the Communication on “Limiting Global

Climate Change to 2 degrees Celsius. The way ahead for 2020 and beyond”,
to the Green Paper “Adaptation to climate change in Europe – options for EU
action” and to the EU Greenhouse Gas Monitoring System. The booklet further
presents activities that will contribute to a sound science base for future policy
actions.
We consider the collaboration between our Directorate-Generals of great

importance for “Winning the Battle against Global Climate Change”, in a
way which is science based, environmentally and economically effective and
acceptable for citizens in Europe and the World.
Roland Schenkel
Director General
Directorate-General JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE
Mogens Peter Carl

Director General
Directorate-General ENVIRONMENT

JRCs Research Strategy
in support of EU climate change policy making
The JRC Climate Change Research Strategy aims at determining costs

and benefits of mitigation and adaptation polices in monetary and non-
monetary terms.
Benefits are assessed not only in terms of reducing climate change risks,
but also in terms of enhancing energy security, reducing air pollution,
protection against climate variability and other co-benefits.
Within this context, the JRC performs studies in the following 5 areas:
1 Mitigation: Quantitative assessment of the benefits, co-benefits and

cost of various options to reduce climate change hazards by reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions and enhancement of their sinks.
2 Adaptation: Quantitative assessment of the exposure and

vulnerability of various forms of “capital” (e.g. infrastructure, human life,
biodiversity,…) to climate change hazards, and assessment of the
benefits, co-benefits and cost of reducing exposure and vulnerability.
3 Scenario Modelling: Ex-ante evaluation of the environmental and

economic effectiveness of mitigation and adaptation strategies.
4 Monitoring and Verification: Development and promotion of EU

and world-wide methodologies for monitoring climate change, its drivers
and its effects, as well as monitoring the effectiveness of policies and
verification of reported data and claims.
5 Civil Society Perspectives: Awareness building and assessment of

the social acceptance of climate change risks and climate change
policies through involvement of civil society.
The JRC Climate Change Research Strategy explores climate change

questions from a European and global perspective, in support of
European Commission services, EU Member States and International
Organisations.
The report organises the various JRC activities according to the 5 areas
mentioned above.
3
CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY = MITIGATION + ADAPTATION
extended
extended
cost-benefit
cost-benefit analysis
assess
assess assess
assess assess
assess assess
assess
reduction
reduction of
of reduction of
reduction of reduction of
reduction of reduction of
reduction of
CC
CC risk
risk = CC
CC hazard
hazard x exposure
exposure x vulnerability
vulnerability
to
to hazard
hazard to
to hazard
hazard
3
scenario
scenario modeling
modeling (ex-ante
(ex-ante analysis)
CLIMATE
CLIMATE CHANGE
CHANGE mitigation
mitigation adaptation
adaptation
POLICY
POLICY MAKING
MAKING policies
policies + policies
policies
evaluation
evaluation of of assess
assess assess
assess assess
assess
social
social options
options && cost
cost options
options && cost
cost options
options && cost
cost
1 2
acceptance
acceptance for
for reducing
reducing for
for reducing
reducing for
for reducing
reducing
of
of CC
CC risk
risk GHG
GHG exposure
exposure sensitivity
sensitivity
5 and
and policies
policies
4
emissions
emissions
monitor
monitor effectiveness
effectiveness of
of
of capital
capital
of policies
of
of capital
policies (ex-post analysis)

capital
monitor
monitor atmospheric,
atmospheric, oceanic,
oceanic, land-use
land-use &
&
climate change
climate change
To address the climate change problem both mitigation (by reducing greenhouse
gas emissions) and adaptation (by reducing exposure and vulnerability to climate
change impacts) are needed. The JRC assesses options and costs of such
policies, as well as their benefits and co-benefits.
See text for further explanation.

Modelling Energy
Modelling Energy Futures
Futures
greenhousegas
greenhouse gasemission
emissionpathways
pathwaysfor
formeeting
meetingthe
theEU
EU2ºC
2ºCtarget
target
TheJRC
The JRCuses
usesdedicated
dedicatedenergy
energyandandtransport
transportmodels
modelsas aswell
wellasasmulti-
multi-
sectoralgeneral
sectoral generalequilibrium
equilibriummodels
modelstotoconduct
conductimpact
impactassessments
assessmentsofof
EUpolicies
EU policiesininthe
theareas
areasofoftransport,
transport,energy
energyand
andenvironment.
environment.TheseThese
models include
models include TRANSTOOLS
TRANSTOOLS for for transportation,
transportation, and and POLES
POLES and and
GEM-E3for
GEM-E3 forclimate
climateand
andenergy
energyissues.
issues.
TheJRC
The JRChashasplayed
playedaacentral
centralrole
roleininthe
theEuropean
EuropeanCommission
CommissionWorldWorld
EnergyTechnology
Energy TechnologyOutlook-2050
Outlook-2050(WETO-H2)
(WETO-H2)study, study,which
whichprovides
providesaa
coherent framework
coherent framework toto analyse
analyse the the energy,
energy, technology
technology and and
environmentalscenarios
environmental scenariosover
overthe
theperiod
periodfromfromnow
nowtoto2050.
2050.Projections
Projections
until 2050
until 2050 have
have been
been made
made with
with the
the world
world energy
energy sector
sector simulation
simulation
model –– the
model the POLES
POLES model
model –– that
that describes
describes thethe development
development ofof the
the
national and
national and regional
regional energy
energy systems,
systems, and and their
their interactions
interactions through
through
international energy
international energy markets,
markets, under
under constraints
constraints onon resources
resources andand
climatepolicies.
climate policies.
The POLES
The POLES and and the
the general
general equilibrium
equilibrium model
model GEM-E3
GEM-E3 have
have further
further
been used
been used toto assess
assess the the technological
technological and
and economic
economic options
options for
for
reducingglobal
reducing globalgreenhouse
greenhousegas gasemissions
emissionstotomeet
meetthe
theEUEU2ºC
2ºCtarget.
target.
Those analyses
Those analyses have have been
been included
included inin the
the Impact
Impact Assessment
Assessment
accompanying the
accompanying the January
January 2007
2007 Communication
Communication ofof the
the European
European
Commissionon
Commission on'Limiting
'LimitingGlobal
GlobalClimate
ClimateChange
Changetoto22degrees
degreesCelsius
Celsius- -
Theway
The wayahead
aheadfor for2020
2020andandbeyond'.
beyond'.This
ThisCommunication
Communicationhas hasbeen
been
the basis
the basis for
for the
the call
call by
by the
the European
European Council
Council for
for an
an ambitious
ambitious
integratedenergy
integrated energyand andclimate
climatepolicy
policypackage,
package,on on8/9
8/9March
March2007.
2007.
KeyPublication:
Key Publication:
P.P.Russ,
Russ,T.T.Wiesenthal,
Wiesenthal,D. D.van
vanRegemorter,
Regemorter,J.C.
J.C.Ciscar,
Ciscar,L.L.Szabó.
Szabó.Analysis
Analysisofof
Global Climate Policy Scenarios for 2030 and beyond -
Global Climate Policy Scenarios for 2030 and beyond - Greenhouse Gas Greenhouse Gas
EmissionReduction
Emission ReductionPathway
PathwayScenarios
Scenarioswith
withthe
thePOLES
POLESand andGEM-E3
GEM-E3models.
models.
EURReport
EUR Report(available
(availableatatthe
theconference).
conference).
Formore
For moreinfo:
info: antonio.soria@ec.europa.eu
antonio.soria@ec.europa.eu
Competitivenessand
Competitiveness andSustainability
SustainabilityUnit
Unit
Institutefor
Institute forProspective
ProspectiveTechnological
TechnologicalStudies
Studies
55
Gt of CO2
Contribution of various actions to reduce global CO2 emissions. Under a

baseline development, emissions are projected to increase substantially,
following the upper line. Introducing dedicated climate change policies so as to
bring emissions down to a level that will allow meeting the EU's long term 2
degree target (grey bottom area) triggers substantial changes in the energy
system. Energy savings in all sectors are a key element, followed by a switch to
lower carbon or non-carbon fuels.
70
EU
Power Sector and Industry
60
Developed
Countries
50
EUR per t CO 2
EUR per t CO2
Economies in
40 Transition
High Income
30 Developing
Countries
20 Developing
Countries
10 Low Income
Developing
Countries
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Development of the price of CO2 emission allowances over time in the power
sector and industry sector in a scenario that will allow meeting the 2 degree
target. In this scenario, emissions from power sector and industry can be traded
among world regions. Even though no emission cap is assumed for developing
countries before 2030, their industry sectors would experience a cost for CO2
emission allowances as a consequence of instruments such as the Clean
Development Mechanism.
4
Modelling Energy Futures
CO2 emissions from the electricity system in Europe
Driven by the continuous increase of electricity demand and the

forthcoming retirement of a significant number of old power plants,
new electricity generation capacity will need to be constructed in
Europe in the short to medium term.
Despite initiatives to expand the share of renewable energy
technologies, energy forecasts highlight that most of the new capacity
will be fossil fuel (coal and gas fired) power plants. This will
potentially have a great impact on the European efforts to reduce
CO2 emission levels, as well as on other European challenges such
as security of energy supply and competitiveness. The technology
and fossil fuel mix for the future electricity sector will have to be
formulated in a way that is compatible with the goals of the EU
energy and environment policies.
The JRC has assessed the development of fossil fuel (coal and
natural gas) electricity generation technology up to 2030, based on a
number of alternative scenarios for the evolution of the world coal and
gas prices, the cost of CO2 emission allowances, the penetration of
renewable and nuclear power generating technologies, and the
technological maturity of carbon capture and storage technologies.
Key for CO2 emissions in the sector, is the price of CO 2 emission
allowances but also the price of coal and natural gas themselves.
Clearly, coal plants will always have a fuel cost advantage. However,
if the absolute price of natural gas is low, the generally lower fixed
cost of gas powered installations will shift the balance towards such
installations even if CO2 emission allowances are expensive.
Key Publication:
Tzimas E., Georgakaki A., Garcia Cortes C., Peteves S.D. The Evolution of
the European Fossil Fuel Power Generation Sector and its Impact on the
Sustainability of the Energy System. POWER-GEN Europe 2007, Madrid,
16-18 June 2007.
For more info: evangelos.tzimas@jrc.nl

estathios.peteves@ec.europa.eu
Energy System Evaluation Unit
Institute for Energy
7
CCS
20%
low fuel pric e - low CO 2 pric e low fuel pric e - high CO 2 pric e
10% m edium fuel pric e - low CO 2 pric e m edium fuel pric e - high CO 2 pric e
high fuel pric e - low CO 2 pric e high fuel pric e - high CO 2 pric e
90
0%
ev1e9ls
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

-10%
oe
reilsastiiv n tlo
-20%
0 sem
-30%
9n
tois1s9io
-40%
-50%
em
at2ive
-60%
ClO
Re
-70%
-80% European
reduc tion policy
nec estarget
s ary for
bythe reduction
2020 of emissions
in order by 2020
to ac hieve the 2 o C target
low fuel pric e - low CO 2 pric e low fuel pric e - high CO 2 pric e
m edium fuel pric e - low CO 2 pric e m edium fuel pric e - high CO 2 pric e
high fuel pric e - low CO 2 pric e high fuel pric e - high CO 2 pric e
Annual CO2 emissions from the electricity generation sector in Europe for different
fuel (coal and natural gas) prices and different prices for CO2 emission allowances. It
is assumed that carbon capture technology is mature and can be deployed
commercially during the period 2015-2020. High prices of CO2 emission allowances
are generally effective to drive the CO2 emissions in the electricity sector down.
However, if the price for gas is low, the lower fixed cost of gas powered installations
will anyway shift the balance towards such installations and to lower CO2 emissions.
Coal (PC) IGCC w/CCS PC w/CCS NGCC NGCC w/CCS GT
low fuel price - high CO2 price 27% 27% high fuel price - low CO2 price
250 21%
250
new capacity [Gw]
new capacity [Gw]
200 200
9%
150 150 28%
51%
37%
100 100
50 50
0 0
0
0
01
01
02
02
03
01
01
02
02
03
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
05
10
15
20
25
05
10
15
20
25
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Construction of new fossil fuel electricity generation capacity for a most optimistic
(left) and most pessimistic (right) combination of fuel and CO2 emission allowance
prices (assuming again that carbon capture technology is mature and can be
deployed commercially during the period 2015-2020).
PC (Pulverised Coal), IGCC (Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle), NGCC (Natural Gas
Combined Cycle respectively), GT (Gas Turbine) and CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage)
6
Linkages with Air Pollution
Linkages with
air pollution in a future Air Pollution
climate
air pollution in a future climate
Climate change and conventional air pollution are linked primarily
Climate
because change and from
both result conventional
burning air
fossilpollution
fuels. A arechanging
linked primarily
climate,
because both result from burning fossil fuels. A changing
however, can have a further influence on air pollution, through changes climate,in
however, can have a further influence on air pollution,
meteorological conditions such as convection, frequency of frontal through changes in
meteorological conditions
passages, subsidence, such asstability,
atmospheric convection, frequency
hydrological cycle, of
etc.frontal
passages, subsidence, atmospheric stability, hydrological cycle, etc.
The JRC organised an international comparison of global atmospheric
The JRCto organised
models calculate an the international
effects of air comparison of global
pollution control atmospheric
strategies and
models to calculate the effects of air pollution control
climate change on surface ozone by 2030 (see Figures). The evaluation strategies and
climate
includedchange on surface
future emission ozone byunder
scenario’s 2030 unchanged
(see Figures). The evaluation
climate conditions
included future
(Figs. b,c), emission
as well as a scenario’s under unchanged
scenario assuming the IS92a climate
climateconditions
change
(Figs. b,c),
scenario as well with
associated as aa scenario
global meanassuming
surfacethe IS92aofclimate
warming roughlychange
0.7 ºC
scenario associated
between 2000 and 2030with (Fig.
a global
d). mean surface warming of roughly 0.7 ºC
between 2000 and 2030 (Fig. d).
The Figures show the ensemble average of about 25 global models in
The Figures
calculating show and
current the 2030
ensemble
ozoneaverage of about
concentrations at 25 global
ground models in
level.
calculating
A changingcurrent
climateand 2030
leads to ozone concentrations
a reduction of ozone atoverground
largelevel.
parts of the
A changing
oceans, climateover
whereas leadsthetocontinents
a reduction it of ozone
might over
lead to large parts hence
increases, of the
oceans, whereasairover
working against the continents
pollution it might
control policies. leadcase,
In any to increases,
during thehence
2000
working againstground
– 2030 period, air pollution
basedcontrol
ozonepolicies. In anytocase,
levels seem be more during the 2000
sensitive to
– 2030 period,
changing ground
emissions than based ozone levels
to a changing seem to be more sensitive to
climate.
changing emissions than to a changing climate.
This study was in support of the fourth assessment report of the IPCC,
This study was
and involved in support
scientists of the fourth
of DG-RTDs ACCENT assessment
Networkreport of the IPCC,
of Excellence.
and involved scientists of DG-RTDs ACCENT Network of Excellence.
Key Publication:
Key Publication:
Dentener, F., D. Stevenson, K. Ellingsen, T. Van Noije, M. Schultz, M. Amann,
Dentener, F.,N.
C. Atherton, D. Bell,
Stevenson, K. Ellingsen,
D. Bergmann, I. Bey,T. L.
Van Noije, M. T.
Bouwman, Schultz,
Butler,M.J. Amann,
Cofala,
C.
W. Atherton, N. Doherty,
Collins, R. Bell, D. Bergmann,
J. Drevet, I.B.Bey, L. Bouwman,
Eickhout, E. H., A.T. Fiore,
Butler,M.J. Cofala,
Gauss,
W. Collins, R. Doherty,
D. Hauglustaine, J. Drevet,
L. Horowitz, B. Eickhout,
I. Isaksen, B. Josse,E. H., A. Fiore,
M. Krol, J.F. M. Gauss,
Lamarque,
D. Hauglustaine,
M. Lawrence, L. Horowitz,
V. Montanaro, I. Müller,
J.F. Isaksen, B. Peuch,
V.H. Josse, G.
M.Pitari,
Krol, J.
J.F. Lamarque,
Pyle, S. Rast,
J. Rodriguez, M. Sanderson, N. Savage, D. Shindell, S. Strahan, S. S.
M. Lawrence, V. Montanaro, J.F. Müller, V.H. Peuch, G. Pitari, J. Pyle, Rast,
Szopa,
J. Rodriguez,
K. Sudo, R. M. VanSanderson,
Dingenen, N.O.Savage,
Wild, andD. Shindell,
G. Zeng,S. Global
Strahan,Atmospheric
S. Szopa,
K. Sudo, R. Van
Environment Dingenen,
for the next O. Wild, andEnvironmental
generation, G. Zeng, Global Atmospheric
Science and
Environment for the next
Technology, 40, 3586-3594, 2006 generation, Environmental Science and
Technology, 40, 3586-3594, 2006
For more info: frank.dentener@jrc.it

For more info: frank.dentener@jrc.it
Climate Change Unit
Climate Change Unit
Institute for Environment and Sustainability

9
9
2000
a) Global surface ozone
concentration [ppbv] in
the year 2000 calculated
with an ensemble of
global air pollution models.
2030 – 2000: CLE

b) Change of surface ozone
between 2000 and 2030 as
a result of development and
currently decided world-wide
emission reductions policies
(CLE), but assuming climate
to remain stable.
2030 – 2000: MFR

c) Change in surface ozone
reductions between 2000
and 2030 achieved when all
currently available emission
reduction technologies would
be implemented (MFR),
assuming climate to be
stable.
2030 with CC– 2030 without CC: CLE

d) Effect of allowing climate to
change between 2000 and
2030 on surface ozone in the
year 2030. Climate change
alone is expected to reduce
ozone over the oceans.
Over land only small
increases (< 1 ppb) are
expected in some areas.
8
Renewable Energies
potential and growth in Europe
The European Council, in its conclusions of 8/9 March 2007, endorsed a

binding target of a 20% share of renewable energies in overall EU energy
consumption by 2020.
More in general, the implementation of renewable energy systems and
improved electricity end-use efficiency are key means of satisfying the
twin objectives of sustainability and security of energy supply.
The JRC established a Scientific Technical Reference System for
Renewable Energy and Energy End-Use Efficiency (REFREE) as a “one-
stop shop” for quality-checked, robust and validated data for European
Institutions, Member States and stakeholders. It provides feedback on the
effectiveness of renewable energy policy measures, particularly with
respect to CO2 emission reductions.
REFREE monitors the progress of the implementation of wind energy,
bio-energy and photovoltaics in EU Member States, and compares it with
targets set in a range of EU directives (see Figure). An important part of
this activity is dedicated to reaching agreement with industry to reduce
electricity demand by accelerating new technologies such as efficient
lighting and reduction of stand-by loads.
The JRC also intervenes in specific technological areas where research
and harmonisation is required such as in solar photovoltaic electricity.
In this context, the JRC predicts the electricity generation costs from
photovoltaic systems on a regional level (http://re.jrc.cec.eu.int/pvgis/pv/),
based on long term historical solar radiation data interpolated to cover
every 1x1 km2 spot in Europe, including topographical shadowing
conditions (see Figure).
Key publications:
Jaeger-Waldau et al., Progress of Electricity from Biomass, Wind and Photo-
voltaics in the European Union. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews,
Vol 8, No 2, 157 -182, 2004
Electricity Consumption and Efficiency Trends in the Enlarged European Union -

Status Report 2006- EUR 22753 EN, ISBN 978-92-79-0558-4, B. Atanasiu and
P. Bertoldi
For more info: arnulf.jaeger-waldau@ec.europa.eu

Renewable Energies Unit
10 11
10000
Electricity Generation TWh by three Renewable Electricity Sources
Electricity
Consumption Electricity Efficiency
EU25 -2% / -10% per year
1000
Wind EU25
100
2010 Bio-
Electricity
Biomass-E EU25
Target
10
2010 Wind
Wind World Target
EU 25
1
PV EU25 2010
PV World Photovoltaic
Target EU 25
0,1
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Progress in major renewable electricity technologies, as compared to EU targets for

2010. The graph includes EU electricity consumption and effect of end-use efficiency
measures. (Units: TWh/yr).
Cost of PV electricity in Europe assuming a PV system with optimally-tilted modules,

performance ratio 0.75, system price 4000/kWp, payback time 20 years, interest
rate 5% p.a., and annual maintenance cost equal to 1% of the system cost.
© European Communities, 2007.
10 11
Managing CO2 from Fossil Fuels
innovative power generation technologies
Energy outlooks confirm that fossil fuels will continue to be the backbone
of the European power generation system for the foreseeable future.
Hence, the development and deployment of innovative fossil fuel energy
conversion technologies with a minimal carbon footprint are essential
elements of a strategy to combat global climate change. The
commercialisation of these technologies will depend however on their
ability to operate economically in a power system with increasing shares
of intermittent renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar.
The co-production of electricity and hydrogen from coal via gasification
with the simultaneous pre-combustion capture of carbon dioxide is one
such technological option as it offers a simple route of capturing carbon
dioxide for geological storage.
The JRC has demonstrated that such a power plant can be cost-
competitive, even when renewables have a significant share in electricity
generation, by being able to vary its output of hydrogen and electricity
within short times in response to the demand of these two energy
carriers. To this end, the JRC has evaluated different gasification, syngas
treatment and carbon capture technologies using advanced process flow
modelling techniques and it has identified the most promising
technologies that can maximise the process efficiency, carbon capture
rate, output flexibility and reliability of the plant whilst minimising costs.
An example of a design concept developed by the JRC is shown in the
Figure.
The JRC has also identified areas which require further research and
development, such as hydrogen fuelled gas turbines, hydrogen and CO2
purity issues, plant integration etc.
Key Publication:
F. Starr, E. Tzimas and S. Peteves, Critical factors in the design, operation and
economics of coal gasification plants: The case of the flexible co-production
of hydrogen and electricity, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy,
32 (10-11), (2007), p. 1477-1485
For more info: Evangelos.tzimas@jrc.nl

Estathios.peteves@ec.europa.eu
12 13
Generalised flow scheme, developed by the JRC, of a gasification plant that
converts coal into hydrogen and electricity with the simultaneous capture of
carbon dioxide (CO2). Coal and oxygen produced in an air separation unit (ASU)
enter a gasifier and react in high temperature to produce a mixture of hydrogen,
carbon monoxide (CO) and other gases. This gas mixture is sent to a shift
converter where CO reacts with steam to produce CO2 and more hydrogen. The
CO2 is then selectively removed, compressed and sent to storage. The resulting
hydrogen-rich and CO2-free gas is combusted in a gas turbine generating
electricity but no CO2 emissions, while a stream of very high purity hydrogen is
obtained by further purification via pressure swing absorption (PSA) and
exported via pipelines to hydrogen consumers.
12 13
Managing CO2 from Fossil Fuels
CO2 storage through Enhanced Oil Recovery
Enhanced oil recovery using carbon dioxide (CO 2-EOR) is a

technological option that can simultaneously store carbon dioxide
(CO2) in oil reservoirs and increase oil production beyond what is
achievable by conventional recovery methods. Hence, this approach
can both reduce CO2 emissions and improve the security of energy
supply. So far, the lack of CO2 supply to oil recovery projects at
a competitive cost and the high operating and capital expenses,
especially for offshore projects have hindered the implementation of
such projects in Europe. However, the urgent need to curb CO2
emissions, the implementation of the European emissions trading
scheme (ETS), and high oil prices may now justify investment in
CO2-EOR. The emergence of this political landscape coincides with
the end of operation of many oilfields in the North Sea, hence, soon,
a decision needs to be taken to either decommission these oilfields
or to keep them operating through investment in enhanced oil
recovery methods.
The JRC has estimated the potential for CO2 storage and additional
oil production in oil recovery projects of the North Sea (see Figure),
as well as the associated costs. The analysis has shown that
while CO 2 -EOR could increase considerably European oil
production, the maximum potential for CO2 storage in the oilfields of
the North Sea may not prove significant when standard practices are
applied. If, however, the price of CO2 emission allowances becomes
high, CO2-EOR operations could be designed to maximise the
retention of CO2 underground.
Key Publication:
E. Tzimas, A. Georgakaki, C. Garcia Cortes and S.D. Peteves. Enhanced
Oil Recovery using Carbon Dioxide in the European Energy System.
Institute for Energy, Joint Research Centre, Petten, The Netherlands.
EUR 21895 EN, ISBN 92-7901044-1, December 2005.
For more info: evangelos.tzimas@jrc.nl

estathios.peteves@ec.europa.eu
14 15
High price scenario
Low price scenario
Potential cumulative CO2 emissions avoided by Enhanced Oil Recovery

projects in the North Sea.
Letters identify individual oil recovery projects: the height of the corresponding
box indicates the profitability of the project in terms of its return rate before
taxes, the width of the box indicates the annual amount of CO2 stored (i.e.
emissions avoided) by the project.
The high price scenario refers to $35/bbl for oil and 25/t for CO2 emission
allowances. The low price scenario refers to $25/bbl and 15/t respectively.
The analysis shows that at a 10% return rate the amount of CO2 avoided
ranges between 4 and 57 Mtonne per annum depending on the price scenario.
As a reference: The CO2 emissions from the UK power generation sector in
2003 were about 155 Mtonne.
14 15
Biofuels in
Biofuels in Transport
Transport
the JRC-EUCAR-CONCAWE well-to-wheels analysis
the JRC-EUCAR-CONCAWE well-to-wheels analysis

binding minimum target of a 10% share of biofuels in overall EU transport
binding minimum
petrol and diesel target of a 10%
consumption byshare
2020.ofThe
biofuels
JRC,intogether
overall EUwithtransport
EUCAR
petrol and diesel consumption by 2020. The
and CONCAWE, carried out a Well-To-Wheels (WTW) analysis to JRC, together with EUCAR
and CONCAWE,
estimate greenhouse carried
gas out a Well-To-Wheels
emissions, energy efficiency(WTW)and analysis to
industrial
estimate
costs of greenhouse
all significant gas automotive
emissions, fuels
energyand efficiency and industrial
power-trains for the
costs of all significant
European Union after 2010. automotive fuels and power-trains for the
European Union after 2010.
The study specifies all input data and assumptions. This allows
The study specifies
stakeholders all input and
(e.g. automotive data biofuels
and assumptions.
industries) This allows
to suggest
stakeholders
improvements,(e.g. whichautomotive and biofuels
are incorporated in periodic industries)
updates. It to issuggest
already
improvements, which are incorporated in periodic
being used as a reference by the Directorate-General Transport and updates. It is already
being
Energyusedof theasEC a andreference
in tasksbyof the Directorate-General
the International Transport and
Energy Agency.
Energy of the EC and in tasks of the International Energy Agency.
As an example, the WTW analysis shows that EU production of biodiesel
As
andanbio-ethanol
example, the from WTW analysis
arable crops shows that EU production
offers well-to-wheels of biodiesel
greenhouse gas
and bio-ethanol from arable crops offers well-to-wheels
savings, but at much higher cost (> 100 /tonne CO2) than many other greenhouse gas
savings,
forms of but at much gas
greenhouse higher cost (>(see
mitigation 100 Figure).
/tonne CO2) than many other
forms of greenhouse gas mitigation (see Figure).
Blending with conventional fuels gives the lowest costs. Making fuels
Blending
from strawwithandconventional
forest residuals fuels givesmore
seems the attractive,
lowest costs.but theMaking fuels
processes
from straw
are not yetand forest residuals
demonstrated. seems ether
Dimethyl more attractive,
(DME) should but the processes
avoid slightly
are not yet demonstrated. Dimethyl ether (DME)
more greenhouse gas per euro than other wood-derived fuels, such as should avoid slightly
more greenhouse
synthetic gas permethanol,
diesel/gasoline, euro thanethanol,
other wood-derived
or hydrogen,fuels, such as
and would be
synthetic diesel/gasoline, methanol, ethanol, or hydrogen,
even better in fleet applications where new distribution infrastructure is and would be
even better in fleet applications where new distribution infrastructure is
less costly.
less costly.
The study concluded that if the maximum feasible level of bio-resources
The study
in the EUconcluded that if theinto
was concentrated maximum
makingfeasible
transportlevel of bio-resources
fuel, by 2010 one
in the EU was concentrated into making transport
could replace 8 to 12% of EU gasoline and diesel, depending on fuel, by 2010 theone
mix
could replace 8 to 12% of EU gasoline and diesel,
of fuels chosen. This would reduce greenhouse gas emissions from depending on the mix
of fuels chosen.
transport by 5-11%. This would reduce greenhouse gas emissions from
transport by 5-11%.
Key Publication:
Key
The Publication:
complete well-to-wheels report can be downloaded from
The complete well-to-wheels report can be downloaded from
http://ies.jrc.cec.eu.int/wtw
http://ies.jrc.cec.eu.int/wtw
For more info: vincent.mahieu@jrc.it
For more info: vincent.mahieu@jrc.it
Transport and Air Quality Unit
Transportrobert.edwards@jrc.it
and Air Quality Unit
robert.edwards@jrc.it
16 17
17
Cost of replacing diesel or gasoline ( / tonne
E/t CO2-eq. avoided
The graph shows two important indicators for biofuels policy: how much it costs
to replace fossil fuel in transport (vertical axis) and the cost of avoiding
greenhouse gas emissions (horizontal axis) The costs here refer to the cost-to-
Europe of the entire well-to-wheels chain, excluding taxes, subsidies and indirect
effects on GDP etc.
We see that the cost of saving greenhouse gas for most biofuels pathways is in
excess of 100 Euros/tonne CO2-eq. By comparison, the price of CO2 emission
allowances in Europe’s Carbon Trading system has rarely risen above 20 /tonne
CO2-eq . This shows that biofuels are generally an expensive way to save
greenhouse gas, compared to interventions in other sectors.
Except for the limited supply which could be produced in paper mills, the
minimum cost of replacing fossil road fuel with biofuels is about 300 /tonne. The
expected EU road fuel demand in 2017-2020 is around 300 Mtoe/yr, so our best
estimate of the minimum cost of replacing 10% of this (in line with the review of
the biofuels directive) would be about 9 billion euros per year.
Note: this data is not the same as in JEC-WTW V2c (March 2007) because JRC has
updated the commodity prices using the latest 2007 projection from FAPRI (used by US
Government and DG-AGRI), for the year 2017.Costs for wastes are based on JRC cost-
supply curves For definitive data, download V3 of the JEC WTW study, due early 2008.
16
14
17
Biofuels, how green are they?
N2O emissions from biocrop production
In connection with the JRC-EUCAR-CONCAWE Well-To-Wheels study

(see page 17), JRC pays attention to the following issues:
v availability of biomass from EU and world sources
v energy balance,
v environmental impact,
v potential in emerging countries,
v Greenhouse gas balance
With respect to the last issue, there is great attention to the production of
nitrous oxide (N2O) during biocrop production.
N2O emissions caused by application of nitrogen fertilizers are crucial in
determining how ‘climate-friendly’ biofuels are and whether they have a
positive climate effect at all. N2O emissions are depending on many
factors – environmental and farm management – and therefore, it is very
difficult to make a reliable emission estimate. In fact, these emissions
dominate the uncertainty of greenhouse gas inventories in most countries.
The JRC, in collaboration with the University of Bonn, Germany, has set-
up a modeling framework combining the economic model for agriculture
CAPRI (Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact assessment) and
the mechanistic model DNDC (Denitrification Decomposition). It allows
simulating nitrogen turnover in arable soils at a high spatial resolution and
within a realistic socio-economic framework and leads thus to a significant
reduction of the uncertainty in nitrogen gas fluxes from arable soils.
The calculations show, for example, that on average, direct plus estimated
indirect N2O emissions, alone do not offset the reductions in CO2
equivalent emissions through the use of biofuels. If however the CO2
emitted during fertiliser production and the use of fossil fuel during field
operations are accounted for too, the climate benefit of biofuels based on
rapeseed oil becomes negligible.
Key Publication:
Leip, A., Koeble, R., Marchi, G., Kempen, M., Heckelei, T. , and Britz, W.:
Linking an economic model for European agriculture with a mechanistic model
to estimate nitrogen losses from cropland soil in Europe, Biogeosciences
Discussion, 4, 2215–2278, 2007.
For more info: adrian.leip@jrc.it
Climate Change Unit
vincent.mahieu@jrc.it
Transport and Air Quality Unit
jean-francois.dallemand@ec.europa.eu
18 19
A prerequisite for reducing the
high uncertainty of estimates
of N2O emissions from
agricultural soils in Europe is
to match agricultural activities
and environmental conditions.
The JRC in collaboration with
partners of the DG-RTD
project CAPRI-Dyna-Spat
developed agricultural land
use maps for 29 crops at high
resolution. The map on the left
shows rapeseed cultivation for
the year 2000.
Rapeseed and sugar beet

are important crops for the
production of biofuels (bio-
diesel and bio- ethanol,
respectively) in Europe.
The map on the left shows
a 10-year average of N2O
fluxes simulated at ca.
8000 representative fields
with rapeseed and sugar
beet rotations.
18 19
Sustainable Consumption
Sustainable Consumption and
and Production
Production
life cycle
life cycle thinking
thinking and
and assessment
assessment
The full
The full life
life cycle
cycle of
of goods
goods and
and services
services must
must be
be taken
taken into
into account
accountwhen
when
considering their
considering their environmental
environmental impacts,
impacts, including
including their
their carbon
carbon footprints.
footprints.
Those impacts
Those impacts must must not
not be
be shifted
shifted from
from one
one life
life cycle
cycle stage
stage to
to another,
another,
norfrom
nor fromone oneimpact
impactcategory
categorytotoothers
othersor
oracross
acrosspolitical
political boundaries.
boundaries. Life
Life
cycle thinking
cycle thinking isis now now key
key inin the
the upcoming
upcoming European
European Sustainable
Sustainable
Consumptionand
Consumption andProduction
ProductionAction
ActionPlan.
Plan.
One of
One of the
the key
key impact
impact categories
categories of of aa LCA
LCA isis climate
climate change.
change.Significant
Significant
opportunities for
opportunities for greenhouse
greenhouse gas gas emission
emission reductions
reductions cancan bebe identified
identified
using life
using life cycle
cycle assessment.
assessment. For For example,
example, GHG GHG emissions
emissions from
from municipal
municipal
wastesare
wastes areupuptoto1.4
1.4tonnes
tonnesof ofCOCO2-eqper pertonne
tonneof ofwaste
wastein insome
someregions,
regions,
2-eq
which can
which can bebe up
up toto 7%
7% ofof their
their overall
overall GHG
GHG emissions.
emissions. Contributions
Contributions areare
highest for
highest for the
the uncontrolled
uncontrolled landfilling
landfilling of of large
large quantities
quantities of
of biodegradable
biodegradable
waste. Through
waste. Through optimised
optimised management
management strategies,
strategies, mostmost ofof the
the organic
organic
waste that
waste that contributes
contributes to to GHG
GHG emissions
emissions can can be be diverted
diverted from
from landfills
landfills
reducing these
reducing these emissions
emissions to to almost
almost zero.
zero. IfIf this
this organic
organic waste
waste isis used
used toto
produce compost
produce compost (replacing
(replacing artificial
artificial fertilizers)
fertilizers) or or to
to produce
produce energy
energy
(replacing fossil
(replacing fossil fuels),
fuels), and
and ifif recycling
recycling of of waste
waste in in general
general isis considered
considered
(avoiding the
(avoiding the extraction
extraction and and processing
processing of of raw
raw materials),
materials), the
the reduction
reduction ofof
GHG emissions
GHG emissions by by such
such waste
waste management
management strategies
strategies can
can bebe up
up to
to 20%
20%
ofthe
of theoverall
overallGHG
GHGemissions
emissionsin insome
someregions.
regions.
The European
The European Commission
Commission therefore
therefore initiated
initiated the
the “European
“European Platform
Platformon on
Life Cycle
Life Cycle Assessment".
Assessment". The The Platform
Platform isis implemented
implemented by by the
the JRC
JRC in in
collaboration with
collaboration with Directorate-General
Directorate-General Environment.
Environment. Working
Working closely
closely with
with
key stakeholders,
key stakeholders, such
such asas European
European business
business associations,
associations, the
the Platform
Platform
provides the
provides the European
European Life
Life Cycle
Cycle Reference
Reference DataData System
System (ELCD)
(ELCD) forfor the
the
life cycle
life cycle emissions,
emissions, resource
resource consumption,
consumption, and and associated
associated
recommended impact
recommended impact indicators
indicators for
for core
core materials,
materials, energy
energy carriers,
carriers, and
and
services.
services.
Keypublication:
Key publication:
K. Koneczny,
K. Koneczny, R.
R. Bersani,
Bersani, M.A.
M.A. Wolf,
Wolf, D.W.
D.W. Pennington.
Pennington. Recommendations
Recommendationsfor for
Life Cycle based Indicators for Sustainable Consumption and Production in
Life Cycle based Indicators for Sustainable Consumption and Production in the the
European Union,EUR
EuropeanUnion, EUR22879,
22879,2007
2007
http://lca.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
http://lca.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
Formore
For moreinfo:
info: david.pennigton@jrc.it
david.pennigton@jrc.it
Rural Water and Ecosystem ResourcesUnit
Rural Water and Ecosystem Resources Unit
Institutefor
Institute forEnvironment
Environmentand
andSustainability
Sustainability
20 21
21
Life cycle assessment (LCA) is an internationally standardized method (ISO 14040,
ISO 14044) for the environmental assessment of goods and services along their life
cycle.
Left-to-right: product life cycle along the production phase, use phase, and end-of-life.
Bottom-to-top: inventory of resource consumption and emission flows at each stage.
Top: cross-comparable assessment indicators for resource consumption as well as
environmental and social impact categories.
20 21
Avoiding
Avoiding Deforestation
Deforestation
exploration of an accounting mechanism
exploration of an accounting mechanism
At COP-11 (Montreal, 2005) a process was launched to investigate
At COP-11
technical (Montreal,
issues 2005) aa scheme
surrounding process was launched
to reduce to investigate
greenhouse gas
emissions from deforestation in developing countries. There is potentialgas
technical issues surrounding a scheme to reduce greenhouse in
emissions from deforestation in developing countries.
such a scheme, especially in tropical forests, where both rates of There is potential in
such a scheme,
deforestation and ofespecially
carbon stock in tropical
changes forests,
can be high.where botha rates
If such scheme of
deforestation
is and of carbon
to be considered stocka changes
under post-2012 can be high. Ifthen
system, such aadequate
scheme
is to be considered
mechanisms under
will be required a post-2012
to ensure system,given
that any credits thenfor adequate
reducing
emissions from deforestation really do reflect a positive carbon reducing
mechanisms will be required to ensure that any credits given for balance
over the reference deforestation scenario. Such mechanisms balance
emissions from deforestation really do reflect a positive carbon require
over the reference deforestation scenario. Such mechanisms
methodologies for the measurement of forest conversion, for determining require
methodologies
carbon for theofmeasurement
stock values forests and for of designing
forest conversion,
referenceforscenarios
determining
for
carbon stock
carbon crediting.values of forests and for designing reference scenarios for
carbon crediting.
The JRC explored a potential mechanism in the context of reducing
The JRC from
emissions explored a potential
deforestation in the mechanism in the technical
tropics, including context of reducing
options for
emissions from deforestation in the tropics, including
determining baselines of forest conversions (see Key Publication). Thistechnical options for
determining
study builds baselines of forestinconversions
on achievements estimating (see Keydeforestation
tropical Publication).rates
This
studydistinguishing
and builds on achievements
between ‘intact’ in estimating
and ‘non intact’tropical deforestation
forests rates
using satellite-
and distinguishing
based measurements between ‘intact’ and ‘non intact’ forests using satellite-
(see Figures).
based measurements (see Figures).
At the same time, research is being carried out for obtaining minimum
At the same
estimates time, research
of reduced emissions is being carried out for
from deforestation even obtaining
when poor minimum
data,
estimates of reduced emissions from
e.g. on forest carbon stocks, is available. deforestation even when poor data,
e.g. on forest carbon stocks, is available.
Key Publication:
Key Publication:
Mollicone D., F. Achard, S. Federici, H.D. Eva, G. Grassi, A. Belward, F.
Mollicone D., F. Achard,
Raes, G. Seufert, S. Federici,
H.-J. Stibig, H.D. Eva,
G. Matteucci andG.E.-D.
Grassi, A. Belward,
Schulze, F.
Avoiding
Raes, G. Seufert, H.-J. Stibig, G. Matteucci and E.-D. Schulze, Avoiding
deforestation: An incentive accounting mechanism for avoided conversion of
deforestation:
intact An incentive
and non-intact forests.accounting mechanism
Climatic Change, for avoided
83:477–493, conversion of
2007
intact and non-intact forests. Climatic Change, 83:477–493, 2007
For more info: frederic.achard@jrc.it

Global Vegetation Monitoring Unit
Global Vegetation Monitoring Unit
giacomo.grassi@jrc.it
Climate Change Unit
Climate Change Unit
22 23
23
intact forests other land use
non -intact forest
Under the Kyoto Protocol, a “forest” may have a minimum 10-30% of crown
cover. This means that, if degradation is not considered, the emissions caused
by a 70-90% loss in crown cover would be ignored. For this reason, in the
mechanism explored by the JRC both “intact” or fully-stocked forests (e.g. 100%
of the original forest biomass) and “non-intact” or degraded forests (down to
10% tree canopy) are taken into account.
1984 2005
a) Landsat TM imagery b) ENVISAT MERIS mosaic

Source: NASA / USGS Source: ESA / MEDIAS-France
Satellite data can be used to monitor forest area changes (in this case 150 km
across). Here we see the outlined region change from natural forest (green) in
1984 to forest and clear cut areas in 2005 (red) in the region of Alta Floresta,
Brazil. In the same way that satellites can monitor deforestation, they can follow
the loss of intact forests.
22 23
Floods and Droughts in Europe
the changing hydrological cycle
The JRC has developed a methodology to assess global warming induced

changes in the hydrological cycle and the consequent socio-economic
impacts. The physical impact assessment integrates high-resolution
regional climate information, pan-European hydro-morphological data
sets, hydrological modelling, and statistical analysis to predict changes
in hydrological variables. Resulting economic impacts were estimated
in several transnational river basins for the PESETA study on the cost of
climate change (see page 26).
Results indicate (see Figures - page 24) that discharge will generally increase
in northern parts of Europe, although summer discharge may decrease.
Southern and south-eastern regions of Europe, which already suffer from
water stress, will be particularly exposed to reductions in water resources
and see an increase in the frequency and intensity of droughts. On the
other hand, an increase in extreme high river flows, those which return
only every 100 years, is projected for large parts of Europe, even in regions
where it will get drier on average.
The consequent changes in water availability and the occurrence of
extreme events across Europe will strongly affect ecosystems and socio-
economic sectors such as water management, agriculture, energy
production, navigation, and tourism.
Key Publication:
Dankers, R., O. B. Christensen, L. Feyen, M. Kalas, A. de Roo, 2007. Evaluation
of very high-resolution climate model data for simulating flood hazards in the
Upper Danube Basin, Journal of Hydrology, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.09.055.
For more info: luc.feyen@jrc.it

Land Management and Natural Hazards Unit
24 25
Changes in mean annual and seasonal river discharge between the period 2071-
2100 and 1961-1990. Shown here are only rivers with an upstream catchment
area of 1000 km2 or more. (Simulations with LISFLOOD driven by HIRHAM –
HadAM3H/HadCM3 and IPCC SRES scenario A2).
River discharge: change in 100-y return level, Gumbel fit River discharge: change in MAM/
Left plate (floods): relative change in 100-year return level of river discharge
between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990. Right plate (droughts): relative change in
mean annual minimum 7-day river discharge between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990.
Shown here are only rivers with an upstream area of 1000 km2 or more.
(Simulations with LISFLOOD driven by HIRHAM – HadAM3H/HadCM3 and IPCC
SRES scenario A2).
24 25
The PESETA Study
sectoral impacts of climate change in Europe
In June 2007, the European Commission published its Green Paper on
Adaptation, which sets out options for EU action. The Green Paper and
its annex include early results of the JRC PESETA study on the possible
impacts of climate change in Europe over the 21st century.
PESETA focuses on the impacts of climate change, for the 2011-2040
and 2071-2100 time horizons, in the following sectors: Coastal Systems,
Energy Demand, Human Health, Agriculture, Tourism, and Floods.
PESETA is coordinated by JRC, and involves several research institutes
(JRC itself, ICIS-Maastricht University, AEA Technology,Metroeconomica,
FEDEA, University of Southampton, FEEM, and Polytechnic University of
Madrid and the Rossby Centre).
Two general methodological approaches are adopted for the physical
impact assessments.
- Process modelling for Agriculture, Coastal Systems, and River Basin
Floods. The impacts in these sectors are assessed through detailed,
structural modelling systems: the DSSAT model for Agriculture, the DIVA
model for Coastal Systems and the LISFLOOD model for River Basin
Floods (see Figure).
- Reduced-form approaches for Human Health, Tourism and Energy
Demand. They follow a more simplified framework in which direct
relationships between climate variables and impacts are considered. For
the case of Human Health, the exposure-response functions are derived
from the available scientific literature. For Tourism and Energy Demand
they come from statistical and econometric analysis.
Despite many limitations, the PESETA project provides a valuable
indication of the economic costs of climate change in Europe based on
physical impact assessment and state-of-art high-resolution climate
scenarios.
Key Publication:
http://peseta.jrc.es/
For more info: antonio.soria@ec.europa.eu

Competitiveness and Sustainability Unit
Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
26 27
Relative increase in extreme high river water levels (with 100 years return frequency) in the
Upper Danube catchment between the end of the previous century and the end of the
current century.
A2 control run
Land use type Depth >0 to 1 Depth 1 to 2 Depth 2 to 3 Depth 3 to 4 Depth > 4
Continuous urban fabric 251.5 298.9 335.3 118.7 0
Discontinuous urban fabric 18,462.0 15,149.3 6,329.4 3,198.9 1,993.7
Industrial or commercial
54.3 104.4 64.0 47.5 81.1
units
Road and rail networks 2.7 7.2 5.8 2.0 0
Construction sites 0.6 0.9 0 0 0
Green urban areas 11.2 21.4 22.5 18.9 15.6
Sport and leisure facilities 301.1 298.9 175.0 19.3 73.9
Non-irrigated arable land 36.1 34.5 11.3 4.7 2.9
Total per water depth class 19,119.5 15,915.4 6,943.1 3,410.0 2,167.1
Total damage 47,555
A2 scenario run
Depth 1
Land use type Depth >0 to 1 Depth 2 to 3 Depth 3 to 4 Depth > 4
to 2
Continuous urban fabric 240.1 313.2 402.3 387.1 249.1
Discontinuous urban fabric 17,205.0 16,320.3 11,113.6 7,054.3 10,864.4
Industrial or commercial
50.4 114.4 106.3 83.3 212.7
units
Road and rail networks 2.6 6.1 8.0 5.0 5.5
Construction sites 0.8 0.5 0.9 0 0
Green urban areas 10.9 17.5 23.2 21.4 47.0
Sport and leisure facilities 266.5 312.3 241.7 126.7 202.7
Non-irrigated arable land 32.3 36.6 21.8 10.9 14.5
Total per water depth class 17,808.6 17,121.0 11,917.9 7,688.7 11,595.8
Total damage 66,132
Flood damages (in million €) per land use type and water depth (m) class at the end of the previous
century and at the end of the present century in the Upper Danube (IPCC A2 scenario).
27
Influence on European Agriculture
changing conditions for production
Agricultural production is very sensitive to climate variability and will be

affected by climate change.
The JRC is analySing the changes in basic conditions for agricultural
production, such as the growing season length (see Figure) and water
availability, in support of EU agricultural policies and funding schemes.
For what concerns water availability, water deficit has so far been
compensated by irrigation, which has largely been used to also increase
production. However climate change, in particular in southern Europe, is
expected to reduce water availability for irrigation [see page 25] while
increasing the total water demand for agricultural purposes.
The increase of CO2 concentration in the air is also expected to affect
agricultural production, through its fertilization effect (particularly on C3
crops) and through the increase in water use efficiency. In addition an
increase of temperature due to climate change is expected to enhance
organic matter mineralization, to affect denitrification and in general the
nitrogen and carbon cycle as a whole.
The JRC is developing and applying tools to asses those impacts of
climate change on crop nutrient and water requirements. Preliminary
results indicate that in the coming few decades crop production will in
general increase in northern countries because of a longer growing
season, CO2 fertilization and a more efficient use of endogenous nitrogen
coming from soil mineralization. The results also show that irrigation
requirements will increase and that irrigated areas will spread throughout
Europe.
Key Publications:
Genovese et al., Climate changes for Europe reflected in the phenology of
wheat simulated with the CGMS Model”. VIII Congress of European Society for
Agronomy, Copenhagen, 11-15 July 2004, pp. 263-264.
Bouraoui F., Grizzetti B., Granlund K, Rekolainen S, Bidoglio G., 2004. Impact
of Climate Change on the Water Cycle and Nutrient Losses in a Finnish
Catchment. Climatic Change 66: 109-126.
For more info: giampiero.genovese@jrc.it

fabio.micale@jrc.it
Agriculture Unit
Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen
faycal.bouraoui@jrc.it
Agri Environment Unit
28 29
Frost events analysis in the Grid No. 33034 Frost events analysis in the Grid No. 33034
ESSEX (UK) THESSALIA (GR)
400 400 400 400
350 350 350 350
300 300 300 300
250 250 250 250
Nr. Days
Nr. Days
DOY
DOY
200 First Autumn frost ev. 200 200 First Autumn frost ev. 200
Last Spring frost ev. Last Spring frost ev.
Frost free period Frost free period
150 150 150 150
100 100 100 100
50 50 50 50
0 0 0 0
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
The growing season length is defined as the number of days between the last
spring and the first autumn frost event. During the past 30 years the growing
season has lengthened over most of the EU territory. (Change is statistically
significant in hatched areas). The northern latitudes benefit from a longer
growing season coupled with higher temperatures. On the opposite, particular
areas in southern and central Europe experience a decrease of the growing
season length due to delayed spring frost events, which themselves are a result
of a larger climate variability in those areas.
28 29
Climate Change and Development
the ACP observatory for sustainable development
The European Commissions Green Paper on Adaptation, mentions as

one of the four pillars for EU action collaboration with third countries, in
particular the least developed ones.
Climate Change is indeed a development problem since its adverse
effects will disproportionately affect poor countries where economies are
predominantly based on natural resources and rain-fed agriculture.
The JRC has developed, over the last 20 years, capacities for
systematically assessing land and vegetation conditions in Africa by
measuring several bio-physical parameters: albedo, solar radiation, fires,
surface water bodies, photosynthetic activity…
These activities are now conducted in the frame of the African-
Caribbean-Pacific (ACP) Observatory for Sustainable Development
developed by JRC, which provides diagnostics and scenarios in the
following domains: sustainable management of natural resources; land
degradation and desertification, crop production and food security; crisis
response and humanitarian aid.
For example, extreme events and their consequences are monitored by
Earth Observation images, and the information is delivered to local and
EU decision-makers (see Figures). Another example is the availability of
solar energy. Most regions in ACP countries are rich in solar energy
sources, with an average daily global irradiation of more than 5.5
kWh/m . Very little of this free energy is being exploited, despite the fact
that in rural and peri-urban Africa the overall level of electrification is less
than 15%. For the majority of African countries, levels of 1-2% are more
common.
Key Publication:
Carrara, P., Bordogna, G., Boschetti, M., Brivio, P.A., Nelson, A. and
Stroppiana, D., 2007. A Flexible Multi-Source Spatial Data Fusion System for
Environmental Status Assessment at Continental Scale, Int. J. of
Geographical Information Science (in press)
Bartholomé E. et al., 2006, VGT4Africa user manual - First Edition, EUR 22344
FR
For more info: philippe.mayaux@jrc.it
Global Environment Monitoring Unit
arnulf.jaeger-waldau@ec.europa.eu
30 31
The MERIS imagery of 03 (left) and 19 (right) September 2007 illustrates the extent
of the floods in Northern Burkina Faso, at the borders of Mali and Niger. The flash
floods (in white) are much larger than the normal temporary water bodies, but
disappear very quickly.
"Annual solar
radiation incident on
optimally-tilted
photovoltaic modules
(kWh/m2).
The map has been
prepared in
collaboration with
Ecole des Mines de
Paris."
30 31
The
The EC
EC GHG
GHG inventory
inventory system
system
focus
focus on
on the
the largest
largest uncertainties:
uncertainties: agriculture
agriculture and
and forestry
forestry
As
As a a Party
Party toto both
both thethe UNFCCC
UNFCCC and and its
its Kyoto
Kyoto Protocol,
Protocol, the
the European
European
Community has to submit its annual greenhouse gases
Community has to submit its annual greenhouse gases (GHG) inventory. (GHG) inventory.
The
The compilation
compilation of of this
this inventory
inventory is is a
a joint
joint activity
activity of
of the
the Member
Member States
States
and the European Commission (Directorate-General
and the European Commission (Directorate-General Environment), Environment),
supported
supported by by the
the European
European Environmental
Environmental Agency,
Agency, Eurostat
Eurostat and
and the
the
JRC. This inventory includes estimates of anthropogenic
JRC. This inventory includes estimates of anthropogenic GHG emissions GHG emissions
and
and removals
removals from from land-related
land-related activities.
activities. The
The importance
importance of of these
these
activities is well recognized: in the EU removals from
activities is well recognized: in the EU removals from Land Use Change Land Use Change
and
and Forestry
Forestry (LULUCF)
(LULUCF) are are about
about 8 8%% of of the
the overall
overall EUEU GHG
GHG emissions
emissions
These
These current removals by LULUCF, should not be confounded with
current removals by LULUCF, should not be confounded with the
the
removals
removals which will be accounted under the Kyoto Protocol according to
which will be accounted under the Kyoto Protocol according to
Art. 3.3 and 3.4 which in the EU-15 will equal to about
Art. 3.3 and 3.4 which in the EU-15 will equal to about 39 Mt CO22 per 39 Mt CO per
year
year of
of the
the commitment
commitment period, period, equivalent
equivalent to to 11%
11% of of the
the EU-15
EU-15 reduction
reduction
commitment under the Kyoto
commitment under the Kyoto Protocol. Protocol .
Within
Within the
the EC
EC GHG
GHG inventory
inventory system,
system, the
the JRC
JRC isis responsible
responsible for
for the
the
QA/QC emissions and sinks in Agriculture, Forests and Other Land
QA/QC emissions and sinks in Agriculture, Forests and Other Land Uses Uses
(AFOLU),
(AFOLU), which
which includes
includes the
the check
check of
of Member
Member States'
States' inventories,
inventories, the
the
contribution to the EC Inventory Report and support to
contribution to the EC Inventory Report and support to the UNFCCCthe UNFCCC
review
review process.
process.
The
The JRC
JRC complements
complements these
these activities
activities complemented
complemented by by continuous
continuous
efforts
efforts for harmonizing and improving the measuring and reporting of
for harmonizing and improving the measuring and reporting of
GHG emissions and sinks in the AFOLU sector. To this aim,
GHG emissions and sinks in the AFOLU sector. To this aim, the JRC- the JRC-
based
based webweb site
site “AFOLU
“AFOLU DATA”
DATA” offers
offers EU-wide
EU-wide data
data sets,
sets, models
models andand
other tools to promote transparent, complete, consistent and comparable
other tools to promote transparent, complete, consistent and comparable
estimates.
estimates. Target
Target users
users are
are both
both greenhouse
greenhouse gas
gas inventory
inventory practitioners
practitioners
and scientists.
and scientists.
Key
Key Publications:
Publications:
AFOLU
AFOLU DATA:
DATA: Agriculture,
Agriculture, Forestry
Forestry and
and Other
Other Land
Land Uses
Uses
http://afoludata.jrc.it/index.cfm
http://afoludata.jrc.it/index.cfm
Ph.
Ph. Ciais,
Ciais, …,
…, G.
G. Seufert,
Seufert, …
… Europe-wide
Europe-wide reduction
reduction in
in primary
primary productivity
productivity
caused
caused by
by the
the heat
heat and
and drought
drought in
in 2003
2003 Nature
Nature 437,
437, 529
529 –– 533,
533, 2005
2005
For
For more
more info:
info: guenther.seufert@jrc.it
guenther.seufert@jrc.it
Climate
Climate Change
Change Unit
Unit
Institute
Institute for
for Environment
Environment and
and Sustainability
Sustainability
32 33
33
EU15 emissions (+) and removals (-) (Mt CO2-eq)
500
EU-15 GHG emissions (+) and removals (-) 400
300
200
100
Agriculture
0
Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry
-100
-200
-300
-400
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
According to the latest EC GHG inventory submitted to UNFCCC (2007), the
GHG removals by LULUCF – largely dominated by forests - are totally offset by
the GHG emissions from agriculture. When such official data are compared with
estimates from experimental and modeling research, large source of
uncertainties still emerge, especially regarding emissions from soil [see page
39]. It should be considered that the methodology applied by GHG inventories
to estimate forest removals is essentially based on extrapolations between
periodical forest inventories and hence does not allow to detect specific events
such as Monthly Net Ecosystem
the significant decrease Exchange
in CO2 uptake for summer 1999-2004
in the biosphere observed in
at JRC long-term
summer 2003 (see Figure below). test site, pine forest San Rossore (Tuscany)
20
0
-1
)
month
-20
1999
-2
-40
2000
NEE (g C m
2001
-60
2002
-80 2003
2004
-100
JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT
Monthly Net Ecosystem Exchange for the summer periods in 1999-2004, at the
JRC long-term test site at San Rossore (Italy). Negative values mean a net
uptake (= sink) of CO2 by the forest. The data show that during the heat wave
of 2003 in Europe, the carbon sink turned into a source, indicating the
unstability of the biospheric carbon sink in a future warmer climate. (in
collaboration with DG-RTD project CarboEurope).
32 33
The
The EDGAR
EDGAR Emission
Emission Inventory
Inventory
consistent
consistent emissions
emissions of
of greenhouse
greenhouse and
and air
air pollutants
pollutants
A
A consistent
consistent emission
emission inventory
inventory of
of greenhouse
greenhouse gases
gases and
and conventional
conventional air
air
pollutants is an important tool to study linkages between climate change
pollutants is an important tool to study linkages between climate change
and
and air
air pollution
pollution and
and toto develop
develop integrated
integrated climate
climate change
change and
and air
air
pollution policies.
pollution policies.
The
The JRC
JRC inin collaboration
collaboration with
with the
the Dutch
Dutch Environment
Environment Assessment
Assessment Agency
Agency
is developing the Global Emission Database for Atmospheric
is developing the Global Emission Database for Atmospheric Research. Research.
EDGAR
EDGAR provides
provides past
past and
and present
present (1970-2004)
(1970-2004) anthropogenic
anthropogenic emissions
emissions
of greenhouse gases and air pollutants (gases and aerosols).
of greenhouse gases and air pollutants (gases and aerosols). Emissions Emissions
have
have been
been calculated
calculated using
using an an emission
emission factor
factor approach
approach where
where
technology based activity data per country are coupled
technology based activity data per country are coupled with country with country
specific
specific emissions
emissions factors
factors taking
taking into
into account
account technology
technology andand abatement
abatement
measures.
measures. Emissions by country and sector are distributed on 1
Emissions by country and sector are distributed on 1x
x1 1 and
and
on
on 0.1 x 0.1 degree grid, allowing global and regional, models to use
0.1 x 0.1 degree grid, allowing global and regional, models to use
these data for atmospheric/climate studies.
these data for atmospheric/climate studies.
EDGAR
EDGAR is is used
used as
as reference
reference dataset
dataset for
for studies
studies on
on hemispheric
hemispheric transport
transport
or air pollutants under the UN Convention on Long Range Transboundary
or air pollutants under the UN Convention on Long Range Transboundary
Air
Air Pollution
Pollution (EDGAR-HTAP).
(EDGAR-HTAP). In In 2008,
2008, improvements
improvements in in EDGAR
EDGAR are are
sought
sought through collaboration with experts from different countries to
through collaboration with experts from different countries to
provide up-to-date information on local conditions.
provide up-to-date information on local conditions.
Illustrations
Illustrations of
of EDGARs
EDGARs contents
contents are
are shown
shown in
in the
the Figures.
Figures.
Key Publication:
Key Publication:
In
In the
the 4th
4th Quarter
Quarter ofof 2007
2007 global
global anthropogenic
anthropogenic emissions
emissions of
of the
the Kyoto
Kyoto
Protocol
Protocol Gases and of the air pollutants CO, NMVOC, NOx, SO2, NH3
Gases and of the air pollutants CO, NMVOC, NOx, SO2, NH3
and
and aerosols (Black Carbon, Organic Carbon) will be made available on
aerosols (Black Carbon, Organic Carbon) will be made available on
the website: http://edgar.jrc.it
the website: http://edgar.jrc.it
For more info: john.van-aardenne@jrc.it

For more info: john.van-aardenne@jrc.it
Climate Change Unit
Climate Change Unit
35
35
34
50
10
5
2 50
1 10
0.5 5
0.2 2
0.1 1
0.05 0.5
0.02 0.2
0.01 0.1
0.005 0.05
0.002 0.02
0.001 0.01
0.0005 0.005
0.0002 0.002
0.001
0.0005
0.0002
Global emissions of anthropogenic carbon monoxide CO (left) and nitrogen

oxide NOx (right) (units 109 kg m-2 s-1) on a 1x1 degree grid, in the year 2000.
Ukraine
Sri Lanka
Iran
Indonesia
Mexico
Australia
Canada
Tanzania (UnRep)
India
Japan
Russian Federation
Brazil
China
EU-25
nited States of America
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Industry Electricity Fuel/heat transformation Residential Transport Other
Contribution of different emission sources to the national total of the 15 largest

CO2 emitters in the year 2000.
34 35
Verification of GHG Inventories
using atmospheric monitoring and inverse modelling
Atmospheric monitoring of greenhouse gases (GHGs), combined with

inverse modelling, can trace back observed atmospheric concentrations
of GHGs to their origin, i.e. to the regions where they have been emitted
into the atmosphere, and provide top-down estimates of the GHG
emissions (see Figure).
This technique can be used to verify emission estimates based on
bottom-up inventories, such as the national GHG emissions reported to
the UNFCCC.
It appears to be most useful for F-gases (which are almost entirely due to
anthropogenic activities), and for CH4 and N2O (which for most European
countries are dominated by anthropogenic emissions). In contrast, for
CO2 inverse modelling is especially useful to better estimate natural
sources and sinks (biosphere, ocean), while anthropogenic fossil CO2
emissions are assumed to be known with relatively high accuracy.
The JRC has assessed the current European atmospheric monitoring
programs and the state of the art of inverse modelling techniques at a
recent workshop (see Key Publication 1). Essential is the maintenance
and further extension of existing atmospheric monitoring stations, and, on
the European scale, the setup of an integrated, operational network in
order to ensure the availability of long-term, high-quality atmospheric
measurements e g. greenhouse gases.
Key Publications:
Bergamaschi, P. (Ed.), Atmospheric Monitoring and Inverse Modelling for
Verification of National and EU Bottom-up GHG Inventories - report of the
workshop "Atmospheric Monitoring and Inverse Modelling for Verification of
National and EU Bottom-up GHG Inventories" under the mandate of Climate
Change Committee Working Group I, Casa Don Guanella, Ispra, Italy (08-09
March 2007), 153 pp., European Commission Joint Research Centre, Institute
for Environment and Sustainability, EUR 22893 EN, Scientific and Technical
Research series, ISBN 978-92-79-06621-4, 2007.
Bergamaschi, P., M. Krol, F. Dentener, A. Vermeulen, F. Meinhardt, R. Graul,

M. Ramonet, W. Peters, and E. J. Dlugokencky, Inverse modelling of national
and European CH4 emissions using the atmospheric zoom model TM5, Atmos.
Chem. Phys., 5, 2431-2460, 2005.
For more info: peter.bergamaschi@jrc.it

Climate Change Unit
36 37
In-situ measured and simulated CH4 concentration at a selected monitoring site
In-situ measured
(Schauinsland, and simulated
Germany, CH4 concentration
Observations: at a selectedBymonitoring
Umweltbundesamt). adjustingsite
the
(Schauinsland,
emissions Germany,
and fitting modelObservations:
results with Umweltbundesamt).
measurements the inverse By adjusting the
modelling
technique and fitting
emissionsallows modelthe
attributing results with measurements
observed variability to thethe inverse modelling
contribution of recent
emissions from different European countries and global regions (colourrecent
technique allows attributing the observed variability to the contribution of bars).
emissions from different European countries and global
Light grey shows the contribution from the global CH4 background. regions (colour bars).
Light grey shows the contribution from the global CH4 background.
36
36 37
Monitoring Carbon in Soil
a practical sampling protocol
Soil contains between 70 and 90% of the total carbon in terrestrial

ecosystems. This makes soil a key player in climate change mitigation
activities addressing the removal of greenhouse gases from the
atmosphere. In addition, carbon sequestration in soil enhances
ecosystems resilience, increases the sustainability of rural livelihoods
which in turn minimizes negative socio-economic and environment
consequences of global warming.
The soil is among the mandatory carbon pools to be reported for the
agricultural, land use and forestry activities under the Kyoto Protocol, and
it is certainly one with the highest potential, both in terms of enhancement
of C sink and reduction of C emissions. However, the major challenge is
to find a methodology for monitoring changes of soil carbon over time
which is cost-effective and easily applicable at a range of spatial scales.
The JRC developed a new Area-Frame Randomized Soil Sampling
(AFRSS) Protocol, aiming at a reliable, transparent, verifiable and low-
cost methodology for the determination of changes of organic carbon
stock in mineral soils within the EU. The AFRSS Protocol considers the
ISO recommendations on “Sampling to support legal or regulatory action”.
Field tests of the AFRSS Protocol have shown that monitoring costs
vary from 3 € to 8 € per 1 tC (tonne of carbon), for a field size of 4
ha and depending on the commercial prices for the analysis in the
EU. These costs will reduce for larger fields.
The methodology mainly addresses the need of a cost-effective
estimation of soil organic carbon changes arising from specific projects or
regional/national policies aimed at increasing soil carbon. Potentially it
may be used also to support country-level reporting under the Kyoto
Protocol, by improving specific components of IPCC’s default
methodologies.
Key Publication:
Stolbovoy, V., Montanarella, L., Filippi, N., Jones, A., Gallego, J., & Grassi, G.,
2007. Soil sampling protocol to certify the changes of organic carbon stock in
mineral soil of the European Union. Version 2. EUR 21576 EN/2. 56 pp. Office
for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg. ISBN: 978-
92-79-05379-5
For more info: vladmir.stolbovoy@jrc.it

Land Management Unit
Climate Change Unit
38 39
The sampling plot (yellow line) is photographed from aircraft and the picture is
overlaid with a computer generated frame. Red dots are randomly selected cells
where composite soil samples are taken. Three composite samples allow the
computation of the average organic carbon stock and its standard error for the
plot. The cell position is recorded by GPS to allow comparison with observations
in the future.
The AFRSS test in the Marche region (Italy) (right photo).
38 39
Observing
Observing Essential
Essential Climate
Climate Variables
Variables
contribution to the Global Climate Observing System
contribution to the Global Climate Observing System
The JRC co-authored the implementation plan of the Global Climate
The JRC co-authored
Observing System (GCOS), the implementation
which was approved plan ofatthe Global(Buenos
COP-10 Climate
Observing
Aires, 2004). System
This (GCOS), which Essential
plan identifies was approved
Climate at Variables
COP-10 (Buenos
(ECVs)
Aires, 2004). This plan identifies Essential Climate Variables
which represent high priority geophysical variables that are critical to (ECVs)
drive
which represent high priority geophysical variables that are
or constrain current and future models of the climate and the environment.critical to drive
or constrain current and future models of the climate and the environment.
Renewed efforts are called for to generate comprehensive databases of
Renewed effortsboth
these variables, are with
called for to generate
a retrospective comprehensive
perspective databases
(to provide of
historical
these variables,
background both with atrends)
or establish retrospective perspective (to
and operationally (to provide
supporthistorical
current
background or establish trends)
assessments and forecasting activities). and operationally (to support current
assessments and forecasting activities).
In parallel, the EU and the European Space Agency (ESA) Councils have
In parallel, the
repeatedly EU and the European
emphasised Spaceimportance
the strategic Agency (ESA) forCouncils
Europehave of
repeatedly emphasised the strategic importance
independent and permanent access to global information for for Europe of
independent management
environmental and permanent access to The
and monitoring. global
Globalinformation
Monitoring forfor
environmental
Environment and Security (GMES), a joint EC and ESA programme,for
management and monitoring. The Global Monitoring is
Environment and Security (GMES), a joint EC
Europe’s response and it is the EUs contribution to GEOSS. and ESA programme, is
Europe’s response and it is the EUs contribution to GEOSS.
The JRC has a long standing history and continued commitment to R&D
The JRC hassensing
on remote a long standing
science;history and continued
including alghorithmcommitment
development to R&D
and
on remote sensing science; including alghorithm
benchmarking, specifying future observing instruments, etc.. development and
benchmarking, specifying future observing instruments, etc..
The JRC generates and distributes information on some of the GCOS’
The
ECVsJRC suchgenerates
as the and distributes
plant information
photosynthetic on some
activity of the GCOS’
and biomass (see
ECVs such as the plant photosynthetic activity and
Figures), as well as environment descriptors such as the brightness biomass (see
of
Figures),
the planet, the productivity of the vegetation, deforestation, changes of
as well as environment descriptors such as the brightness in
the planet, the productivity
land cover, biomass burning, etc. of the vegetation, deforestation, changes in
land cover, biomass burning, etc.
The JRC also hosts WMO’s World Data Centre for Aerosols, which
The JRCdata
contains alsoonhosts
globalWMO’s
aerosolWorld DataAmongst
pollution. Centre for Aerosols,
others which
the Aerosol
contains data which
Optical Depth on global aerosol
is another GCOSpollution.
ECV. Amongst others the Aerosol
Optical Depth which is another GCOS ECV.
Key Publications:
Key
KnorrPublications:
W., Gobron N., Scholze M., Kaminski T., Schnur R., and Pinty B. (2007)
Knorr
'ImpactW.,ofGobron N., Scholze
terrestrial M.,carbon
biosphere Kaminski T., SchnuronR.,the
exchanges andanomalous
Pinty B. (2007)
CO2
'Impact of terrestrial biosphere carbon exchanges on
increase in 2002-2003', Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L09703,the anomalous CO2
increase in 2002-2003',
doi:10.1029/2006GL029019. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L09703,
doi:10.1029/2006GL029019.
Mélin, F., Steinich, C., Gobron, N., Pinty, B., Verstraete, M.M.: Optimal merging
of LACF.,
Mélin, andSteinich,
GAC data C.,from
Gobron, N., Pinty,
SeaWiFS. Int. B., Verstraete,
J. Remote Sens M.M.:
., 23,Optimal merging
801-807, 2002.
of LAC and GAC data from SeaWiFS. Int. J. Remote Sens ., 23, 801-807, 2002.
For more info: mark.dowell@jrc.it
For more info: Global Environmental mark.dowell@jrc.it
Monitoring Unit
Global Environmental Monitoring Unit
julian.wilson@jrc.it
julian.wilson@jrc.it
Climate Change Unit
Climate Change Unit
40 41
41
May 2004 (MERIS) May 2005 (MERIS)
These figures exhibit the inter-annual variation in plant photosynthetic activity

(FAPAR) over Europe between May 2004 and May 2005. The effect of the 2005
drought in Spain is particularly noticeable. The color scale is selected so that
unproductive areas appear in white, while highly productive regions are shown in
red and intermediary values appear in shades of green.
Image showing global distribution of biosphere Essential Climate Variables for

July 2006. Chlorophyll concentration (mg/m3) from the SeaWiFS sensor (NASA)
mapped over the ocean and FAPAR (relative units) from the MERIS sensor (ESA)
mapped over land (data processed at JRC).
40 41
Monitoring Global Forest Resources
Deforestation, mainly in the tropics, accounts for about 20% of man-made

emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere. Implementation of policies to
control these emissions (see page 23), and to manage forest resources in
general, requires effective forest monitoring systems that are
reproducible, provide consistent results and meet standards for mapping
accuracy.
Remotely-sensed data supported by ground observations are crucial to
effective monitoring. They can give a continental perspective, which is
required to ensure consistency among national monitoring systems. They
can also identify hot spots of change and prioritising areas for monitoring
at higher resolution.
The JRC has carried out extensive research over the last 15 years into
monitoring forest extent and into measuring forest area change from
global to local scales using satellite observations: the JRC has used
satellite data to map the extent of forest domains at continental levels, to
monitor individual protected areas, to calculate changes in tropical forest
areas at global scales and to monitor logging activities.
The JRC launched originally the TREES project with the European Space
Agency in 1991 to monitor changes in forest cover in the tropics. TREES
entered its third phase in 2007, the purpose of which is to reduce
uncertainties in global estimates of forest area change with a focus on the
Tropics.
The JRC is working closely with the FAO’s Forest Resource Assessment
program to finalise the methods for producing continental forest
conversion rates.
Key Publications:
Achard F, Eva H, Mayaux P, Stibig HJ, Belward A, Improved estimates of net
carbon emissions from land cover change in the tropics for the 1990’s. Global
Biogeochemical Cycles 18:GB2008, 2004.
Mollicone D., Eva H., Achard F, EcologyHuman role in Russian wild fires.
Nature 440, 436 - 437 .

Global Environment Monitoring Unit
42 43
AQUA/TERRA MODIS
mosaic from year 2006
Data source: NASA;

Processing: JRC
Coarse resolution (250 m) satellite data can be used to map remaining forest
areas. Here we see the forest cover status of Borneo for the year 2006 with
remaining undisturbed forests in dark green, degraded forests, agriculture and
burnt areas in respectively light green, yellow and purple.
Example given for the Congo Basin where forest area changes were estimated
between 1990 and 2000 using a sample of circa 600 sites (10 10 km2 size).It
shows the spatial distribution of gross deforestation. Each circle corresponds to a
sample and its size is proportional to the surface affected by gross deforestation.
42 43
You Control Climate Change!
The importance of individual action to fight climate change was already

well recognised by the European Commission campaign "You Control
Climate Change!" launched in June 2006 by President José Manuel
Barroso and Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas.
[http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/campaign/]
The JRC has developed several “games” that are part of the campaign,
and that, more in general, support learning environments and public
debate about climate change.
VGAS© soon to be released in 21 languages and tailored for 25

EU countries, is a virtual reality game that makes the link between
lifestyles and emissions of 3 greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4 , and N2O).
The models behind calculations are based on the IPCC guidelines and
individual emissions are compared with Kyoto targets, world and national
per capita emissions, so that the user gets an understanding about his
“place” with regards to this global ‘problematique’.
During the campaign more than 2000 schools and companies, as well as
local authorities have requested and received copies of this game.
will be the first mobile application about climate

change with wide distribution in Europe and the world.
mobGAS© aims to make the connection between daily activities and the
emissions of greenhouse gases and, when possible, suggests changes
to improve individual performances. It is a kind of diary of users’
behaviour through the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG).
Key Publication:
Guimarães Pereira, Â. and Pedrosa T., V GAS Energy , lifestyles and climate”.
European Commission-Joint Research Centre: EUR 21385 EN
[http://kam.jrc.it/vgas]
For more info: angela.pereira@jrc.it

Econometrics and Applied Statistics Unit
Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen
44 45
VGAS Climate Change and Life Stiles
mobGAS© will challenge individuals to make small changes to

their daily routine in order to achieve significant reductions of
greenhouse gas emissions.
It will be developed for the 27 EU countries, and available in 21
languages, and easily adaptable to others.
mobGAS© includes several icons representing activities or appliances that are used every
day (more than 60). These activities or appliances may be set along the day reflecting users’
daily choices. This will finally be converted in individual emissions of GHG that may be
compared with the weekly average or with a country or world average. Further more the
application includes an animation comparing the users contribution to the Kyoto target. Tips
are given on how the users’ behaviour may improve.
44 45
European Commission
EUR 21855EN/2 – Joint Research Centre

Title: Research at JRC in Support of EU Climate Change Policy Making
Editor(s): Frank Raes, Eimear Kelleher
Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities
2007 – 46 pp. – 21 x 29.7 cm
EUR – Scientific and Technical Research series – ISSN 1018-5593
ISBN 978-92-79-07297-0
The mission of the JRC is to provide customer-driven scientific and technical support
LB-NB-21855-EN-
for the conception, development, implementation and monitoring of EU policies. As a
service of the European Commission, the JRC functions as a reference centre of
science and technology for the Union. Close to the policy-making process, it serves
the common interest of the Member States, while being independent of special
interests, whether private or national.

JRC Climate Change Policy Making

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JRC Climate Change Policy Making

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2nd updated edition

joint research centre

presented at the third Meeting of the Parties

2007 EUR 21855 EN/2

Address: TP290 I-21020 Ispra (VA)

the publication can be downloaded from

EUR 21855 EN/2

Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities

© European Communities, 2007

Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged

2007 EUR 21855 EN/2

It shows,.i.a., the contributions to the Communication on “Limiting Global

We consider the collaboration between our Directorate-Generals of great

Mogens Peter Carl

The JRC Climate Change Research Strategy aims at determining costs

1 Mitigation: Quantitative assessment of the benefits, co-benefits and

2 Adaptation: Quantitative assessment of the exposure and

3 Scenario Modelling: Ex-ante evaluation of the environmental and

4 Monitoring and Verification: Development and promotion of EU

5 Civil Society Perspectives: Awareness building and assessment of

The JRC Climate Change Research Strategy explores climate change

policies (ex-post analysis)

See text for further explanation.

Contribution of various actions to reduce global CO2 emissions. Under a

Driven by the continuous increase of electricity demand and the

For more info: evangelos.tzimas@jrc.nl

Institute for Energy

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Coal (PC) IGCC w/CCS PC w/CCS NGCC NGCC w/CCS GT

new capacity [Gw]

For more info: frank.dentener@jrc.it

2030 – 2000: CLE

2030 – 2000: MFR

2030 with CC– 2030 without CC: CLE

The European Council, in its conclusions of 8/9 March 2007, endorsed a

Electricity Consumption and Efficiency Trends in the Enlarged European Union -

For more info: arnulf.jaeger-waldau@ec.europa.eu

Institute for Environment and Sustainability

Progress in major renewable electricity technologies, as compared to EU targets for

Cost of PV electricity in Europe assuming a PV system with optimally-tilted modules,

For more info: Evangelos.tzimas@jrc.nl

Institute for Energy

Enhanced oil recovery using carbon dioxide (CO 2-EOR) is a

For more info: evangelos.tzimas@jrc.nl

Institute for Energy

Potential cumulative CO2 emissions avoided by Enhanced Oil Recovery

The European Council, in its conclusions of 8/9 March 2007, endorsed a

E/t CO2-eq. avoided

In connection with the JRC-EUCAR-CONCAWE Well-To-Wheels study

Institute for Environment and Sustainability

Rapeseed and sugar beet

For more info: frederic.achard@jrc.it

non -intact forest

a) Landsat TM imagery b) ENVISAT MERIS mosaic

The JRC has developed a methodology to assess global warming induced

For more info: luc.feyen@jrc.it

Institute for Environment and Sustainability

For more info: antonio.soria@ec.europa.eu

Institute for Prospective Technological Studies

Agricultural production is very sensitive to climate variability and will be

For more info: giampiero.genovese@jrc.it

350 350 350 350