PRODUCCIÓN CARNE DE CERDO A NIVEL NACIONAL

PARTICIPACIÓN DEP. DEL PARTICIPACIÓN GRANJA

AÑO CANTIDAD EN TONELADAS META (35%) DE JUAN (15%)
2015 320,305 112,106.75 16,816.01
2016 356,611 124,813.85 18,722.08
2017 371,347 129,971.45 19,495.72
2018 410,270 143,594.50 21,539.18
TOTAL 76,572.98

alfa 0.25
Errores
Proporción Proporción Suavizacion
Periodo Mes por por exponencial
demanda demanda Simple. (0,25) Et /Et/1 Et°2

1 Jan-16 0.0256 479.91 479.91 0 0 0

2 Feb-16 0.0490 916.98 479.91 -437 437 191037
3 Mar-16 0.1063 1,990.87 589.18 -1,402 1402 1964754
4 Apr-16 0.1198 2,243.16 939.60 -1,304 1304 1699256
5 May-16 0.0432 809.21 1,265.49 456 456 208188
6 Jun-16 0.1340 2,509.02 1,151.42 -1,358 1358 1843067
7 Jul-16 0.1149 2,150.81 1,490.82 -660 660 435586
8 Aug-16 0.0726 1,359.81 1,655.82 296 296 87619
9 Sep-16 0.0704 1,318.25 1,581.82 264 264 69469
10 Oct-16 0.0726 1,359.81 1,515.92 156 156 24371
11 Nov-16 0.1322 2,475.65 1,476.90 -999 999 997514
12 Dec-16 0.0592 1,108.59 1,726.59 618 618 381917
13 Jan-17 0.1496 2,916.77 1,572.09 -1,345 1345 1808185
14 Feb-17 0.0298 581.94 1,908.26 1,326 1326 1759108
15 Mar-17 0.0790 1,540.20 1,576.68 36 36 1331
16 Apr-17 0.1580 3,081.20 1,567.56 -1,514 1514 2291122
17 May-17 0.0718 1,399.71 1,945.97 546 546 298405
18 Jun-17 0.0774 1,508.67 1,809.40 301 301 90443
19 Jul-17 0.0284 553.21 1,734.22 1,181 1181 1394796
20 Aug-17 0.0478 932.37 1,438.97 507 507 256641
21 Sep-17 0.0480 935.58 1,312.32 377 377 141933
22 Oct-17 0.1441 2,809.33 1,218.13 -1,591 1591 2531918
23 Nov-17 0.1236 2,409.25 1,615.93 -793 793 629347
24 Dec-17 0.0424 827.50 1,814.26 987 987 973696
25 Jan-18 0.0241 519.57 1,567.57 1,048 1048 1098295
26 Feb-18 0.1408 3,033.24 1,305.57 -1,728 1728 2984841
27 Mar-18 0.0566 1,220.06 1,737.49 517 517 267735
28 Apr-18 0.0144 309.11 1,608.13 1,299 1299 1687466
29 May-18 0.0504 1,085.61 1,283.37 198 198 39110
30 Jun-18 0.1527 3,288.39 1,233.93 -2,054 2054 4220789
31 Jul-18 0.0805 1,734.21 1,747.55 13 13 178
32 Aug-18 0.0791 1,703.47 1,744.21 41 41 1660
33 Sep-18 0.1371 2,952.42 1,734.03 -1,218 1218 1484481
34 Oct-18 0.0791 1,703.47 2,038.63 335 335 112328
35 Nov-18 0.0704 1,516.25 1,954.84 439 439 192355
36 Dec-18 0.1149 2,474.22 1,845.19 -629 629 395672
37 Jan-19 2,002.45
38 Feb-19
39 Mar-19
40 Apr-19
41 May-19
42 Jun-19
43 Jul-19
44 Aug-19
45 Sep-19
46 Oct-19
47 Nov-19
48 Dec-19
-169 777 904573
ME MAD MSE

DESVIACION 971.25
PARTICIPACIÓN GRANJA Proporcion por
DE JUAN (15%) 3500
16,816.01
18,722.08 3000
19,495.72
21,539.18 2500
76,572.98
2000

1500

w1 w2 w3 Total 1000
Ft.
Promedio 0.1 0.4 0.5 1
es Movil Errores 500
Ponderado
0
MAPE Et /Et/1 Et°2 MAPE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1

Proporci

0
0.91075321
2.37907717 Proporcion por
1.38734983 1410.22147 -832.93 832.93 693780 0.5906411252 3500
0.36055274 2009.62608 1,200.41 1,200.41 1440989 0.5973310642
1.17906142 1500.95688 -1,008.06 1,008.06 1016185 0.671611494 3000
0.44270245 1802.50961 -348.30 348.30 121313 0.193230492
0.17876635 2159.93282 800.12 800.12 640192 0.3704374434 2500

0.1666244 1791.13186 472.88 472.88 223620 0.2640145583

2000
0.10298078 1418.12956 58.32 58.32 3401 0.0411222885
0.67625346 1343.18649 -1,132.47 1,132.47 1282479 0.843118738 1500
0.35792889 1913.57592 804.99 804.99 648002 0.4206707959
0.85535237 1680.53736 -1,236.24 1,236.24 1528282 0.7356200223 1000
0.69503883 2149.38853 1,567.44 1,567.44 2456880 0.7292510345
500
0.0231402 1568.54112 28.35 28.35 803 0.0180714572
0.96560662 1294.55297 -1,786.65 1,786.65 3192122 1.3801297098 0
0.2807157 2214.87458 815.17 815.17 664500 0.3680428844 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

0.16620786 2086.35399 577.69 577.69 333722 0.2768883706 Pro

0.68100633 1622.33611 1,069.13 1,069.13 1143041 0.6590070942
0.35205677 1020.03986 87.67 87.67 7686 0.0859491284
0.28708046 838.332888 -97.24 97.24 9456 0.1159960284
1.30626315 896.055928 -1,913.28 1,913.28 3660625 2.1352192837
0.49093292 1872.13321 -537.11 537.11 288490 0.2868985953
0.54389142 2421.91315 1,594.41 1,594.41 2542155 0.6583281269
0.66854792 1658.38122 1,138.81 1,138.81 1296881 0.6866978969
1.32330541 831.711564 -2,201.53 2,201.53 4846729 2.6469858532
0.2978039 1807.19984 587.14 587.14 344736 0.3248906231
0.80778569 1875.28234 1,566.18 1,566.18 2452909 0.8351684358
0.15409633 945.899915 -139.71 139.71 19519 0.147701919
1.6649647 788.453618 -2,499.94 2,499.94 6249680 3.1706822614
0.00763183 2109.34979 375.14 375.14 140729 0.1778458911
0.02335752 2291.02222 587.55 587.55 345214 0.2564573029
0.70263724 1874.25961 -1,078.16 1,078.16 1162432 0.5752465685
0.16440166 2331.02071 627.55 627.55 393816 0.2692159121
0.22435776 2203.05211 686.80 686.80 471690 0.311748034
0.34089931 1734.75871 -739.46 739.46 546799 0.4262600384
2013.95778

59% -27 915 1217238 64%

MAPE ME MAD MSE MAPE

DESVIACION 1143.82
 Proporcion por Demanda vs Suavizacion Exponencial Simple.
3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38

Proporción por demanda Suavizacion exponencial Simple. (0,25)

Proporcion por Demanda vs Promedio Movil Ponderado.

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38

Proporción por demanda Ft. Promedio Movil Ponderado

NIVELACION
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PERSECUCION