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Quarter Actual DataMoving AverageCentral Moving Average

Seasonality=Actual/Central

1 842
2 939
3 1236 973 981.13 1.26
4 875 989.25 999 0.88
5 907 1008.75 1020.63 0.89
6 1017 1032.5 1041.63 0.98
7 1331 1050.75 1056.5 1.26
8 948 1062.25 1073 0.88
9 953 1083.75 1093.13 0.87
10 1103 1102.5 1110.88 0.99
11 1406 1119.25 1131 1.24
12 1015 1142.75 1152.38 0.88
13 1047 1162 1174.38 0.89
14 1180 1186.75 1194.63 0.99
15 1505 1202.5 1212.13 1.24
16 1078 1221.75 1232.63 0.87
17 1124 1243.5 1252.38 0.9
18 1267 1261.25 1272.13 1
19 1576 1283 1288.38 1.22
20 1165 1293.75 1302.88 0.89
21 1167 1312 1323.75 0.88
22 1340 1335.5 1343.63 1
23 1670 1351.75 1362.75 1.23
24 1230 1373.75 1381.63 0.89
25 1255 1389.5 1401.5 0.9
26 1403 1413.5 1422.5 0.99
27 1766 1431.5 1438.5 1.23
28 1302 1445.5 1457 0.89
29 1311 1468.5 1477.38 0.89
30 1495 1486.25 1496 1
31 1837 1505.75 1515.63 1.21
32 1380 1525.5 1534.25 0.9
33 1390 1543 1555.88 0.89
34 1565 1568.75 1579.38 0.99
35 1940 1590 1598.13 1.21
36 1465 1606.25 1616.75 0.91
37 1455 1627.25 1638 0.89
38 1649 1648.75 1654.5 1
39 2026 1660.25 1670.38 1.21
40 1511 1680.5 1688.63 0.89
41 1536 1696.75 1706.38 0.9
42 1714 1716 1727.25 0.99
43 2103 1738.5 1772.25 1.19
44 1601 1806 1806 0.89
45
46
47
48

Actual Data

1
Series1
1

1234567891 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4
012345678901234567890123456789012

Cyclicality * Randomness

1
1
1
1 Series1
1
1
1
1
1
1
12345678911111111112222222222333333333344444
0123 4567 890 1234 5678 901 2345 6789 012 34
1
1
1
12345678911111111112222222222333333333344444
0123 4567 890 1234 5678 901 2345 6789 012 34
Seasonalised Data
Deseasonalised DataTrend Data
Seasonalised Trended Data C*R

0.89 946.52 940.43 836.58 1.01


0.99 946.97 959.73 951.65 0.99
1.23 1006.65 979.04 1202.1 1.03
0.89 984.18 998.34 887.59 0.99
0.89 1019.58 1017.65 905.28 1
0.99 1025.63 1036.95 1028.22 0.99
1.23 1084.02 1056.26 1296.91 1.03
0.89 1066.29 1075.56 956.24 0.99
0.89 1071.29 1094.87 973.97 0.98
0.99 1112.36 1114.17 1104.79 1
1.23 1145.1 1133.48 1391.73 1.01
0.89 1141.65 1152.78 1024.89 0.99
0.89 1176.96 1172.09 1042.66 1
0.99 1190.02 1191.39 1181.36 1
1.23 1225.73 1210.7 1486.54 1.01
0.89 1212.51 1230 1093.55 0.99
0.89 1263.52 1249.31 1111.35 1.01
0.99 1277.75 1268.61 1257.93 1.01
1.23 1283.55 1287.92 1581.35 1
0.89 1310.37 1307.22 1162.2 1
0.89 1311.86 1326.53 1180.05 0.99
0.99 1351.37 1345.83 1334.5 1
1.23 1360.11 1365.14 1676.17 1
0.89 1383.48 1384.44 1230.85 1
0.89 1410.78 1403.74 1248.74 1.01
0.99 1414.91 1423.05 1411.07 0.99
1.23 1438.3 1442.35 1770.98 1
0.89 1464.46 1461.66 1299.51 1
0.89 1473.73 1480.96 1317.43 1
0.99 1507.69 1500.27 1487.64 1
1.23 1496.12 1519.57 1865.79 0.98
0.89 1552.2 1538.88 1368.16 1.01
0.89 1562.54 1558.18 1386.13 1
0.99 1578.28 1577.49 1564.21 1
1.23 1580.01 1596.79 1960.61 0.99
0.89 1647.8 1616.1 1436.81 1.02
0.89 1635.61 1635.4 1454.82 1
0.99 1663 1654.71 1640.78 1.01
1.23 1650.05 1674.01 2055.42 0.99
0.89 1699.54 1693.32 1505.47 1
0.89 1726.66 1712.62 1523.51 1.01
0.99 1728.55 1731.93 1717.35 1
1.23 1712.76 1751.23 2150.23 0.98
0.89 1800.77 1770.54 1574.12 1.02
0.89 1789.84 1592.2 0
0.99 1809.15 1793.92 0
1.23 1828.45 2245.05 0
0.89 1847.76 1642.77 0

Seasonalised Data

2500

2000
Series1
1500

1000

500

12345678911111111112222222222333333333344444
01234567890123456789012345678901234

Deseasonalised Data y = mt + c ; where y = deseasonalised data

2000
1800
1600
1400
Series1
1200
1000
800
600
400
200

12345678911111111112222222222333333333344444
01234567890123456789012345678901234
600
400
200

12345678911111111112222222222333333333344444
01234567890123456789012345678901234
y=mt+c

where, y=deseasonalised data

Series1

deseasonalised data

Series1
QUATERLY SEASONAL AVERAGE

QUATER1 QUATER2
1994
1995 0.89 0.98
1996 0.87 0.99
1997 0.89 0.99
1998 0.9 1
1999 0.88 1
2000 0.9 0.99
2001 0.89 1
2002 0.89 0.99
2003 0.89 1
2004 0.9 0.99
Average Seasonal Fluctuation 0.89 0.99
QUARTER3 QUARTER4
1.26 0.88
1.26 0.88
1.24 0.88
1.24 0.87
1.22 0.89
1.23 0.89
1.23 0.89
1.21 0.9
1.21 0.91
1.21 0.89
1.19 0.89
1.23 0.89
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 1
R Square 1
Adjusted R Square 1
Standard Error 15.18
Observations 44

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 2644171.81 ### 11474.25 0
Residual 42 9678.65 230.44
Total 43 2653850.45

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%


Intercept 921.12 4.66 197.83 0 911.73
X Variable 1 19.3 0.18 107.12 0 18.94
ificance F

Upper 95% Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%


930.52 911.73 930.52
19.67 18.94 19.67