Suavización Exponencial Doble P

Año/Mes Periodo Demanda At Tt

Jan-15 1 2,597 2597 0

Feb-15 2 3,462 2813 76
Mar-15 3 4,501 3292 217
Apr-15 4 5,193 3930 364
May-15 5 6,059 4735 519
Jun-15 6 6,578 5585 634
Jul-15 7 6,924 6395 696
Aug-15 8 7,443 7179 727
Sep-15 9 7,270 7747 671
Oct-15 10 8,136 8348 647
Nov-15 11 8,655 8910 617
Dec-15 12 7,963 9136 480
Jan-16 13 5,534 8595 123
Feb-16 14 5,995 8037 -115
Mar-16 15 6,571 7584 -234
Apr-16 16 6,686 7184 -292
May-16 17 6,341 6755 -340
Jun-16 18 6,686 6483 -316
Jul-16 19 6,917 6354 -251
Aug-16 20 5,879 6047 -270
Sep-16 21 6,225 5889 -231
Oct-16 22 6,629 5901 -146
Nov-16 23 6,917 6045 -44
Dec-16 24 7,263 6316 66
Jan-17 25 5,981 6282 31
Feb-17 26 6,366 6326 36
Mar-17 27 6,174 6315 19
Apr-17 28 6,559 6390 39
May-17 29 6,752 6510 67
Jun-17 30 6,849 6645 91
Jul-17 31 7,042 6812 118
Aug-17 32 6,945 6934 119
Sep-17 33 7,331 7122 143
Oct-17 34 7,428 7306 158
Nov-17 35 7,428 7455 154
Dec-17 36 7,235 7515 122
Jan-18 37 6,034 7236 -19
Feb-18 38 6,189 6960 -109
Mar-18 39 6,807 6841 -113
Apr-18 40 6,962 6787 -92
May-18 41 7,117 6800 -55
Jun-18 42 6,962 6799 -36
Jul-18 43 7,272 6890 8
Aug-18 44 7,272 6992 41
Sep-18 45 7,426 7131 75
Oct-18 46 7,658 7320 115
Nov-18 47 7,736 7510 141
Dec-18 48 8,123 7769 183
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
vización Exponencial Doble Pollo

Yt
Cuadrado Porcentaje
Pronóstico Error Error Abs
Error Error
0 - 0%
2597 866 866 749,106 25%
2889 1612 1612 2,598,579 36%
3508 1685 1685 2,837,987 32%
4294 1765 1765 3,114,503 29%
5254 1324 1324 1,753,755 20%
6219 705 705 496,941 10%
7092 352 352 123,795 5%
7906 -636 636 404,713 9%
8419 -283 283 80,036 3%
8994 -339 339 115,197 4%
9526 -1564 1564 2,445,464 20%
9616 -4082 4082 16,662,394 74%
8718 -2723 2723 7,415,653 45%
7922 -1351 1351 1,823,896 21%
7350 -664 664 440,881 10%
6893 -552 552 304,842 9%
6415 272 272 73,865 4%
6166 751 751 563,471 11%
6103 -224 224 50,175 4%
5777 448 448 200,717 7%
5658 970 970 941,798 15%
5755 1162 1162 1,350,479 17%
6001 1262 1262 1,592,107 17%
6383 -402 402 161,516 7%
6313 54 54 2,868 1%
6362 -188 188 35,466 3%
6334 226 226 50,859 3%
6429 323 323 104,487 5%
6577 272 272 73,871 4%
6736 306 306 93,565 4%
6930 15 15 234 0%
7053 278 278 77,471 4%
7266 162 162 26,202 2%
7464 -36 36 1,303 0%
7609 -374 374 140,136 5%
7637 -1603 1603 2,570,029 27%
7218 -1029 1029 1,058,742 17%
6852 -44 44 1,948 1%
6728 234 234 54,843 3%
6694 422 422 178,456 6%
6745 217 217 47,193 3%
6763 508 508 258,544 7%
6899 373 373 139,112 5%
7033 393 393 154,791 5%
7207 452 452 204,042 6%
7435 301 301 90,708 4%
7651 471 471 222,174 6%
7952
8134
8317
 Alfa 0.25

Beta 0.35

P
1

Demanda Pronóstico
12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 2

SESGO 44
MDA 729
MSE 1,104,019
MAPE 12%
manda Pronóstico

2 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48