EQUITY RESEARCH

INITIATION OF COVERAGE

January 15, 2009 SPECIAL SITUATIONS/SPECIAL SITUATIONS

Stock Rating:
OUTPERFORM
Brink's Company
12-18 mo. Price Target $32.00 Initiate Coverage with an Outperform Rating
BCO - NYSE $24.44
SUMMARY
3-5 Yr. EPS Gr. Rate 12%
We initiate coverage of Brink's Company (BCO) with an Outperform rating and a
52-Wk Range $41.14-$18.19
12- to 18-month PT of $32. With the completion of a major asset divestiture
Shares Outstanding 45.8M
program, Brink's now is a pure-play secure logistics company. It boasts an
Float 45.0M industry-leading 17% share of the $14B global market. The company is net debt
Market Capitalization $1,118.6M free, and in our view, is well positioned to take advantage of a recent decline in
Avg. Daily Trading Volume 890,268 acquisition prices. BCO trades at a highly attractive 3.5x 2009E EBITDA, which we
Dividend/Div Yield NA/NM believe more than "prices in" FX headwinds, higher pension expense, the roll-off of
Fiscal Year Ends Dec a one-time contract and political/economic risks in certain emerging markets.
Book Value $14.06 KEY POINTS
2008E ROE 10.0% Brink's is the world's largest secure logistics company with 17% market share
■
LT Debt $145.0M and even more impressive position in its largest markets. It is the dominant
Preferred NA player in Venezuela, enjoys a quasi-duopoly with Loomis in France, and boasts
Common Equity $654M 35% of the U.S. market. This leadership has enabled BCO to transcend
Convertible Available No competitive pressures and enjoy strong pricing.

EPS Diluted ■ Brink's has successfully parlayed its core cash-in-transit business to capture
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year Mult.
"high value services," which yield higher margins and longer contracts. As often
2007A 0.29 0.30 0.32 0.76 1.67 14.6x
as possible, the company attempts to capture highly profitable business
2008E 0.70A 0.66A 0.63A 0.54 2.54 9.6x opportunities, including money processing, virtual vaulting and intelligent safes.
2009E 0.45 0.36 0.51 0.53 1.86 13.1x
■ Since 1970, Brink's has logged positive revenue growth in all but 4 years (1973,
2010E -- -- -- -- 2.26 10.8x
1983-1985). Even in recessionary years, it's averaged growth of ~10%. Going
forward, management continues to believe long-term revenues can grow in the
high single digits, helped by the emerging economies and the increased use of
cash in the post-credit crunch world.
■ Michael Dan has been CEO for ~10 years. During his tenure he helped
transform BCO from a natural resource heavy conglomerate into a
laser-focused secure logistics provider. BCO has divested numerous assets,
including coal, BAX and Brink's Home Security. The results of these efforts
appear in BCO's improving ROIC–e.g., 11% in 2007, vs. 4% in 2000.
■ Initiate coverage with Outperform and $32 price target. Our price target
represents 4.7x EV/2009E EBITDA, vs. the group at 6x. We believe this
valuation is appropriate, as it takes into account FX headwinds, higher pension
expense, the roll-off of a large contract in Venezuela and political/economic
risks in certain emerging markets.

Stock Price Performance Company Description

Founded in 1859, Brink's is the oldest and
1 Year Price History for BCO
largest global provider of secure
75 transportation, cash logistics and other
60
security-related services to banks, retailers,
45
government agencies, mints, jewelers and
30
other commercial operators.
15
0
Q1 Q1 Q2 Q3
2009
Created by BlueMatrix

Ian A. Zaffino, CFA
212-667-7413
ian.zaffino@opco.com
See "Important Disclosures and Certifications" section at the end of this report for important disclosures,
Brian J. Bittner including potential conflicts of interest.
212-667-7406
brian.bittner@opco.com See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the end of this report, where
applicable.

Oppenheimer & Co Inc. 300 Madison Avenue 4th Floor New York, NY 10017 Tel: 800-221-5588 Fax: 212-667-8229
Brink's Company
Investment Thesis
Founded in 1859 and based in Richmond, Virginia, Brink’s is the world’s premier security
company. It recently completed an asset divestiture program, including the sale of its coal
holdings, the divestiture of BAX Global and the spin-off of Brink’s Home Security, and is now a
pure-play secure logistics company. The company’s offerings include Cash-in-Transit (e.g.
armored trucks and ATM servicing), High Value Services (e.g. cash logistics, money processing
and the transport of valuables) and other security services (e.g. airport, embassy and public
venue protection). BCO operates in more than 50 countries and employs over 50,000 employees
across ~800 facilities worldwide. The company is net debt free and trades at a highly attractive
3.5x 2009E EBITDA, which we believe more than “prices in” headwinds related to FX, higher
pension expense, the roll-off of a one-time contract and operations in certain emerging markets.

The following are the investment highlights:

Premier Security Company. With roughly $3 billion of annual revenues, Brink’s is the largest
secure logistics company in the world. It operates 786 branches in more than 50 countries and
boasts a 17% share of the global market, vs. Group 4 Securicor plc (U.K.), at 14%, Loomis
(Sweden), at 13%, Prosegur at 6% and a host of smaller players, including Compania de
Seguridad (Spain) and Garda World Security (Canada). In certain regions, BCO’s leadership
position is even more impressive—it is the dominant player in Venezuela, enjoys a quasi-duopoly
in France with Loomis, and leads the U.S. with a 35% share, vs. Loomis’ 30%. This leadership
position has enabled BCO to transcend competitive pressures and enjoy strong pricing,
particularly since one of its main competitors is on the ropes. We look for Brink’s to extend its
presence, particularly in the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) nations, where it could deploy an
estimated $50 million to $100 million on bolt-on and/or larger acquisitions.

Favorable Industry Trends. The number of notes in circulation has historically increased in the
low-double digits in North America and at an even faster rate elsewhere, including Western
Europe (e.g., 8.3% since the introduction of the Euro) and the numerous developing economies.
Latin America is one region that has witnessed a large increase in notes, as economic conditions
improve and wealth spreads throughout these mostly cash-based societies. The credit crisis has
also increased the use of cash, as credit and credit cards are less of an option to many
consumers and businesses. A second trend, which also has helped the company, is the push
toward outsourcing cash logistics. This trend is expected to continue and the market opportunity
could approach $2.3-$2.8 billion by 2010, representing a 10%-15% CAGR since 2006.

Full Complement of Services. Brink’s has successfully parlayed its core cash-in-transit
business into more attractive opportunities, which it self-dubs, “high value services.” BCO
frequently looks to extend its relationships beyond just ATM services, armored car transportation
and point-to-point pick-up of cash/valuables. As often as possible it attempts to capture highly
profitable business opportunities, such as money processing, virtual vaulting and intelligent safes
(e.g., CompuSafe). These high value services now account for nearly one-third of revenues and
not only carry significantly higher margins, but also come with long-term contracts averaging 5
years (in vaulting and back office), vs. only 1-2 years for stand-alone CIT work.

Strong and Steady Revenue Growth. Since 1970, Brink’s has logged positive revenue growth
in all but 4 years (1973, 1983-1985). Even in recessionary years, the entire company has
averaged growth of ~10%. Going forward, management continues to believe it can grow long-
term revenues in the high single-digits per year and improve operating margins by 50 basis
points annually. We believe this strong growth can be attributed to the company’s regional
diversification, its increased product offering, the growing number of notes in circulation,
management’s willingness to shed poorly performing operations (such as the U.K.) and
investments in faster growing regions (such as the emerging markets).

Valuation. BCO currently trades at an attractive 3.5x and 13.1x our 2009 EBITDA and EPS
estimates, respectively. These multiples compare to the comparable group at 6.2x and 9.4x
2009E consensus EBITDA and EPS. We believe EBITDA is the more appropriate metric as BCO
is under-levered and its balance sheet is net debt free. We believe BCO’s current valuation

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 Brink's Company
already reflects upcoming headwinds, including lower FX benefits, the roll-off of the Venezuela
contract, and higher pension expense. Our $32 price target represents 4.6x 2009E EV/EBITDA
and assumes the company can close the multiple gap with its peers. In terms of free cash flow,
we estimate $73 million, or $1.57 per share, in 2009, slightly below projected EPS of $1.86, as
the company continues to invest in its business. We believe Brink’s could use its cash flow to buy
smaller players in the BRIC nations and, longer-term, resume its share repurchase program.

Risks
Under-funded Pension. Although Brink’s froze its pension plan more than three years ago and
sold its coal business, as of December 2007 it had a gross pension liability of roughly $1.3
billion—$963 million from the frozen pension and $570 million in legacy post-retirement medical
liabilities related to the coal business (which it has established a VEBA). As of September 2008,
BCO had assets to reduce the net liability to $160 million ($60 million in pension and $100 million
in retiree medical). However, interest rates have declined meaningfully and the lower discount
rate could increase the company’s under-funded position. We estimate in 2009 and 2010, the
company will record a non-cash pension expense of ~$40 million and will make a cash payment
of $75-$125 million in 2010 based on the September under-funded levels.

Roll-off of Venezuela Contract. Brink’s completed a significant project in Venezuela, where it

performed cash handling services to assist in the conversion to the bolivar fuerte from the
bolivar. We estimate the contract added more than $50 million to 2008 revenues and roughly $30
million to operating profit. This activity was a large driver of growth in 2008, and will not repeat in
2009. While investors are aware of this situation, it nevertheless presents an optical challenge to
the company’s financial results.

Foreign Currency Translation. Because almost 70% of revenues come from outside North
America (e.g., U.S. and Canada), fluctuations in currency, particularly the Euro, have a
meaningful impact on reported revenues. Foreign currency translation added $168 million to
revenues in the first nine months of 2008. However, operating profit tends to be naturally hedged
from currency fluctuations, as BCO’s costs are often in the same currency as its revenues. As a
result, the $168 million FX benefit in the first nine months of 2008 impacted pre-tax profit by only
$9.6 million. Further, the recent strength in the dollar could reduce the 2008 impact modestly.

Fuel. With roughly 9,100 vehicles globally, BCO is a large consumer of fuel, on an absolute
basis. However, on a percentage of revenues basis, it is only in the “low-single digits,” as is
insurance—the other big expense. To cushion the impact of fuel, the company attempts to
structure its contracts to either pass-through the cost or add a surcharge to the base rate
charged. As a result, the company is able to limit its exposure to fuel price fluctuations to one
month.

Emerging market Instability. Brink’s is one of the largest players in Latin America, where it
derives roughly 25% of its revenues and ~8% from Venezuela alone. This region tends to be
highly profitable for BCO, as the business opportunity is large and competition tends to be
fragmented. However, there is greater risk in Latin America in terms of safety and security,
geopolitical issues and the threats of currency devaluation., Nevertheless, BCO has strong
pricing power there and, in fact, is already raising rates in certain countries to at least offset the
impact of inflation., Further, the company’s assets in Venezuela are only worth $90 million. It has
done business in the region for more than 40 years, where it operates in conjunction with a local
player under the local brand name.

Risk to Consensus Estimates. Although the company has been clear with the investment
community about the headwinds it will face in 2009, we believe “Street estimates” contain several
“outliers” that make 2009 consensus too high. In fact, 2009 consensus EPS of $2.14 is well
above our $1.86 estimate. To remedy this, we believe the company could provide guidance
either before, or in conjunction with, its fourth-quarter earnings report slated for early February.
Although we think the stock is attractively priced and management has clearly intimated the
headwinds, any earnings revision could negatively impact the share price.

3
Brink's Company

Business Description
Founded in 1859, Brink’s is the oldest and largest provider of secure transportation, cash
logistics and other security-related services to banks, retailers, government agencies, mints,
jewelers and other commercial operators. It has recently completed an asset divestiture program,
shedding its weight freight transportation (BAX Global), natural resources, and home security
(recently spun off as CFL in October 2008) businesses and is now a stand-alone secure logistics
company. It boasts the premier global brand and garners the leading market share of 17%.

Figure 1: Global Market Share Breakdown

17%

14%

50%

13%
6%

Brink's G4S
Securitas/Loomis Prosegur
Others

Source: Company documents

BCO’s services are broken down into three segments. Its core business is Cash-In-Transit (55%
of revenue), which provides the foundation and infrastructure for its High Value Services offering
(32% of revenues). The company also provides Other Security Services (13% of revenue), such
as airport and embassy protection, but this is considered non-core.

4
 Brink's Company

Figure 2: Segment Breakdown by Revenue

13%

32% 55%

Cash-in-Transit & ATM Services

High Value Services
Security Services

Source: Company documents

CIT and ATM Services (55% of 2008E revenue)

Brink’s core businesses are CIT (Cash-in-Transit) and ATM services, which represent ~55% of
total 2008E revenue. BCO’s CIT business is based on meticulous security practices and high risk
management proficiency. This high level of customer service coupled with a premier brand gives
BCO the ability to capture premium pricing relative to its competitors. Contracts are typically 1-2
years and can be as long as 5 years. BCO is able to pass-through fuel and/or add surcharges,
but could experience a 1+ month lag, which could hurt the company in periods of rapid gasoline
price volatility.

Cash in transit includes armored car point-to-point pick up and delivery of cash, coins, checks
and other valuables. BCO’s ATM operations service ~72,000 ATMs globally. The company
provides cash replenishment, cash monitoring and forecasting capabilities, deposit pick-up and
processing services. Pricing is based upon geography and per stop.

Value Added Services (32% of 2008E revenue)

BCO’s core operations provide an extensive global network to lay the foundation for cross-selling
High Value Services (~32% of total revenue). These value added services enjoy high margins
and long, sticky contracts.

Global Services – Brink’s is a leader in secure long-distance transportation and logistics for
diamonds, jewelry, precious metals, securities, currency, high-tech devices, electronics and
pharmaceuticals. It already has an extensive global network in place, and it can leverage its
armored trucks and secure air and sea transportation to provide international shipping services.

Cash Logistics – Brink’s helps its customers manage their supply chain of cash, from point of
sale through transport, vaulting and bank deposit.

• Money Processing: This service includes counting, sorting and wrapping currency as
well as cashier balancing, checking for counterfeit currency, account consolidation and
electronic reporting. Brink’s advanced technology offerings include online cash tracking,
cash inventory management, check imaging for real-time deposit processing, and other
web-based tools.

• CompuSafe: This patented service offers customers a system for preventing theft and
efficiently managing cash. This tool is for cash-intensive businesses such as
restaurants, retail stores, gas stations, entertainment venues, etc. A specialized safe
box (with system features such as currency-recognition technology, multi-language

5
Brink's Company
touch screens and electronic interface between point-of-sale and back office systems) is
installed in the customer’s facility. The contents can only be removed by Brink’s
personnel and taken to a safe location, verified and transferred for deposit.

• Virtual Vault: This solution enables commercial deposit processing virtually anywhere
and combines cash logistics, Web-based information tools and secure armored
transportation to help banks expand into new markets with minimal investments (without
expanding brick-and-mortar branch networks).

Other Security Services (13% of 2008E revenue)

BCO protects airports, embassies, public venues and stores with electronic surveillance, access
control and trained patrolling personnel. These services are offered mainly in select European
markets (France, Germany, Luxembourg and Greece) and mostly relates to long-term contracts
to protect airports. This segment tends to have lower margins and is not truly a core of the
company’s future direction.

Geographic Breakdown

BCO generates ~70% of revenues outside North America. France and Venezuela are its two
largest international markets, representing 22% and 11% of total revenues, respectively.
Because of lower competition and better pricing, we estimate international operations represent
approximately 82% of operating income.

Figure 3: 2008E Revenue Breakdown by Region

2%
15%
29%

11%

21% 22%

North America France

Rest of EMEA Venezuela
Rest of Latin America Asia Pacific

Source: Company documents and Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.

estimates.

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 Brink's Company

Figure 4: Historical and Estimated Revenue by Region

Revenues by Region 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E
North America 830.0 886.3 941.4 958.5 1,006.4
Growth 6.7% 6.8% 6.2% 1.8% 5.0%

International:
EMEA:
France 546.5 628.8 716.8 698.9 747.8
Growth 7.6% 15.1% 14.0% -2.5% 7.0%
Other 456.6 562.7 667.1 650.4 689.4
Growth 2.9% 23.2% 18.6% -2.5% 6.0%
Total EMEA 1,003.1 1,191.5 1,383.9 1,349.3 1,437.3
5.4% 18.8% 16.1% -2.5% 6.5%
Latin America:
Venezuela 171.7 224.9 341.8 341.8 375.9
Growth 33.1% 31.0% 52.0% 0.0% 10.0%
Other 282.5 369.3 465.3 557.9 613.7
Growth 24.9% 30.7% 26.0% 19.9% 10.0%
Total Latin America 454.2 594.2 807.2 899.6 989.6
Growth 27.9% 30.8% 35.8% 11.5% 10.0%

Asia Pacific 67.0 62.6 75.0 82.2 90.8

Growth -6.4% -6.6% 19.7% 9.7% 10.4%

Total International 1,524.3 1,848.3 2,266.0 2,331.2 2,517.7

Growth 10.6% 21.3% 22.6% 2.9% 8.0%

Total Revenue 2,354.3 2,734.6 3,207.4 3,289.7 3,524.1

Growth 9.2% 16.2% 17.3% 2.6% 7.1%
Source: Company documents and Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. estimates.

North America. This segment represents 29% of total revenue and operates 182 and 55
branches in the U.S. and Canada, respectively. It owns or leases 2,333 vehicles (26% of total
vehicles). BCO has ~35% market share in the U.S., vs. Loomis at 30%, leverage-challenged
Garda (Canadian) at 20% each, and several smaller players. We expect North American
revenues to grow ~1.8%/5% YoY in 2009E/2010E.

EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa). Brink’s operates 249 branches in 21 countries across
Europe, Middle East and Africa. This segment represents 44% of total 2008E revenues, and over
half of the revenues are derived from France. In France, the company enjoys a quasi-duopoly
with Loomis, sharing almost 80% of the market. Other significant operations include the
Netherlands and Germany. We expect France and the rest of EMEA to exhibit a 2.5% decline in
revenue growth in 2009, as a stronger dollar could offset organic growth. However, on a constant
currency basis growth should be 6+%. We look for a return to growth of 6.5% YoY in 2010.

Latin America. BCO operates 211 branches in 7 countries, which contribute 25% to company-
wide revenues. Over one-third of revenues from this region are derived from Venezuela, with
other significant operations located in Brazil and Columbia. We expect Venezuelan revenues to
be flat in 2009, as $50 million of revenues related to the one-time Venezuela Currency
Conversion Project will not likely repeat. However, we expect the rest of Latin America to grow
20% in 2009 (7% organically and 13% from the recent Brazil acquisition). We expect 2010
revenue growth for Venezuela and the rest of Latin America to be 10% YoY.

Asia Pacific. BCO operates 32 branches in 9 countries, which contribute 3% to total revenues.
After a couple years of negative growth, due to the loss of a major Australian customer, this
region should exhibit high double-digit growth in 2008. We expect 10%/10% YoY revenue growth
in 2009E/2010E.

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Brink's Company

Figure 5: North America and International Historic and Estimated Revenue

$2,750
$2,500
$2,250
$2,000
$1,750
$1,500
$1,250
$1,000
$750
$500
$250
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E
North America International

Source: Company documents and Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. estimates.

Figure 6: North America and International Historic and Estimated Operating Margin

12.0%

10.0%

8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E
International North America

Source: Company documents and Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. estimates.

As BCO expands internationally, International margins have increased substantially. In 2008

operating margins were 10.1% - nearly double those of North America. These results were
partially helped by very high margins related to the one-time Venezuelan Conversion project.
Specifically, Venezuela changed its national currency from the bolivar to the bolivar fuerte on
January 1, 2008, and Brink’s performed additional cash handling services to assist in the
conversion. This project brought $50 million of incremental revenues at a high margin. Excluding
this project, we estimate 2008 operating margins of 8.6%.

Foreign Exchange Rates

BCO reports its results in U.S. dollars, but derives 70% of revenues outside North America.
Naturally, revenues are highly affected by changes in exchange rates, particularly between the
dollar and the Euro. As the dollar weakens against the Euro, reported revenues increase. This
dynamic has resulted in FX revenue gains of 1%, 1.3% and 6% in 2005, 2006 and 2007,
respectively, and 8.5% in the first nine months of 2008.

The company’s operating profit, however, is naturally hedged against FX fluctuations, as costs
tend to be in the local currency. Therefore, in the first nine months of 2008, FX only impacted
operating profit by $9.6 million, despite a $168 million revenue impact. With the recent strength in
the USD, it is likely FX could negatively affect revenues in 2009; however, its impact on the
bottom line could be meaningfully less.

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 Brink's Company

Return on Capital

Figure 7: Return on Capital

12.0% 10.9%

10.0%
8.7%

8.0%
5.7% 5.5%
6.0% 5.2% 4.9%
4.5%
3.9%
4.0%

2.0%

0.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

ROIC

Source: Company documents and Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.

As shown in Figure 7, management has significantly increased BCO’s return on capital since the
beginning of the decade. This achievement can be attributed to the divestiture of non-core assets
and the expansion into more profitable businesses. As a pure-play, we estimate ROIC could
approach the mid teens.

Management
Michael Dan – Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Board. Prior to his election as President
and Chief Executive Officer of the Company in February 1998, he served as President and Chief
Executive Officer of Brink’s, Inc. beginning in 1993. He is a director of Principal Financial Group,
Inc. and Principal Life Insurance Company. Mr. Dan has been a director of the Company since
1998.

Michael Cazer – Chief Financial Officer. Following the retirement of Rob Ritter, Mr. Cazer joined
the company in May 2008 as CFO. He has 20 years of financial experience in numerous
leadership positions at General Electric, most recently as CFO of GE Security. Prior to this role
he was CFO of GE Consumer and Industrial Europe and CFO of GE Fanuc. He holds a B.S. in
business and economics, magna cum laude, from Lehigh University.

Frank Lennon – Chief Administrative Officer. Mr. Lennon was appointed Vice President and
Chief Administrative Officer in 2005. Prior to this position, he was the Vice President, Human
Resources and Administration from 1990 through 2005.

Estimates, Outlook and Balance Sheet.

Pensions, retirement and other costs. BCO retains certain liabilities related to its former coal
operations, including postretirement medical and black lung benefits. These liabilities and
expenses are funded through cash contributions to a Voluntary Employees’ Beneficiary
Association trust (VEBA). Most of the covered individuals are near, or above, the normal
retirement age, so these obligations should begin to decrease over time. BCO’s most recent
cash contribution to the VEBA was $225 million and occurred when the company divested BAX
Global in January 2006 for $1 billion cash.

At the end of 2008, we estimate BCO’s pension plan and VEBA will be under-funded by ~$80
million and $140 million, respectively, vs. October’s under-funded position of ~$60 million and

9
Brink's Company
$100 million, respectively. We believe liabilities could be re-valued higher, as interest rates and
thus the effective discount rate assumption, have declined recently. The company will also be
required to make a ~$75-$125 million pension cash contribution in 2010 (none in 2009) to comply
with minimum funding requirements. The company could, however, make voluntary contributions
to these plans in 2009 and has ample cash, liquidity and capacity to do so. We anticipate a non-
cash pension expense of ~$40 million related to lower expected return on asset plans and
increased loss amortization in 2009 and 2010.

Balance Sheet. The balance sheet is in excellent condition, in our opinion, with ample liquidity
and pro forma cash of $204 million (prior to its recent $50 million Sebival acquisition). Debt stood
at $162 million, and consisted of $66 million outstanding on its $400 million revolving bank credit
facility, $18 million outstanding on its $50 million multi-currency revolver, a $43.2 million
guarantee on the principal amount of bonds issued by Ports Authority of Virginia related to a
deep water coal terminal called Dominion Terminal Associates and other debt of $35 million.
BCO also has a newly established unsecured $135 million letter of credit facility, which is yet
untapped.

BCO is net debt free and with almost ~$500 million of debt capacity, is in our opinion, in a
position to make acquisitions and take advantage of lower multiples. We anticipate bolt-on
acquisitions in the $50 to $100 million range, similar to its recently announced $50 million
acquisition of Brazil-based Sebival. Longer-term, the company could resume its share
repurchase, and complete repurchase in the amount of $44 million remaining on its $100 million
authorization.

2009. We anticipate revenue growth of 2.6%, comprised of 6% organic growth and 2%

acquisition growth (Brazilian acquisition adds $60 million), offset by a 4% decline related to FX
and the completion of the $50 million Venezuela Conversion Project. We expect operating profit
to decline 13% YoY, as BCO takes a $40 million non-cash pension charge and loses the benefits
of FX and the high-margin Conversion project. Operating margins could decline to 5.7%, vs.
6.6% expected in 2008. Our EPS of $1.86 represents a 27% YoY decline from our 2008 estimate
of $2.54. This reflects negative growth in operating profit, coupled with a 700 basis point increase
in the tax rate to 33%. We anticipate free cash flow of $73 million ($1.57 per share).

2010. We estimate revenue growth could accelerate to 7% YoY. We assume 7% organic growth
and no acquisitions or FX impact. We expect International/North America revenue to grow
8%/5%. BCO could take a non-cash pension charge in 2010 of $40 million, as it might in 2009.
Our operating income estimate assumes 17% YoY growth and a 50 basis point operating margin
improvement to 6.3%. Our EPS estimate of $2.26 represents 24% YoY growth. Our free cash
flow estimate is $96 million or $2.06 per share.

Valuation. BCO currently trades at an attractive 3.5x and 13.1x our 2009 EBITDA and EPS
estimates, respectively. These multiples compare to the comparable group at 6.2x and 9.4x
2009E consensus EBITDA and EPS. We believe EBITDA is the more appropriate metric as BCO
is under-levered and its balance sheet is net debt free. We believe BCO’s current valuation
already reflects upcoming headwinds, including lower FX benefits, the roll-off of the Venezuela
contract, and higher pension expense. Our $32 price target represents 4.6x 2009E EV/EBITDA
and assumes the company can close the multiple gap with its peers. In terms of free cash flow,
we estimate $73 million, or $1.57 per share, in 2009, slightly below projected EPS of $1.86, as
the company continues to invest in its business. We believe Brink’s could use its cash flow to buy
smaller players in the BRIC nations and, longer-term, resume its share repurchase program.

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 Brink's Company

Figure 8: Comparable Valuations

Stock Market Enterprise EV/EBITDA P/E
Ticker Price Capitalization Value 2009E 2010E 2009E 2010E
Securitas SECUB.SS SEK 64.25 SEK 22,353.6 SEK 34,081.6 7.0x 6.8x 9.5x 9.2x
Loomis LOOMB.SS SEK 60.25 SEK 4,192.4 SEK 7,719.4 4.7x 4.3x 8.7x 7.4x
G4S GFS.LN £1.90 £2,675.8 £4,086.2 7.0x 6.5x 10.0x 9.5x
Prosegur PSG.SM € 24.10 € 1,487.0 € 1,632.0 6.0x 5.6x 11.0x 10.0x
Garda World Security GW.CT CAD 1.26 CAD 39.7 CAD 693.7 6.1x 5.5x 8.0x NA

Average 6.2x 5.8x 9.4x 9.0x

Brink's Company BCO $24.35 $1,122.5 $1,131.3 3.5x 3.1x 13.1x 10.8x

Source: Company documents, First Call and Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. estimates. Priced on 1/15/09

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Brink's Company

Figure 9: Income Statement

BCO - Income Statement
($ in M, except per share data)
Fiscal Year End December 31
2006PF 2007PF 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08E 2008E 2009E 2010E
International 1,524.3 1,848.3 562.5 563.1 575.8 564.6 2,266.0 2,331.2 2,517.7
Growth 35.7% 27.9% 22.9% 7.6% 22.6% 2.9% 8.0%
North America 830.0 886.3 230.3 234.7 237.6 238.8 941.4 958.5 1,006.4
Growth 9.0% 7.1% 6.0% 3.0% 6.2% 1.8% 5.0%
Revenue 2,354.3 2,734.6 792.8 797.8 813.4 803.4 3,207.4 3,289.7 3,524.1
Growth 11.4% 16.2% 26.7% 21.0% 17.4% 6.2% 17.3% 2.6% 7.1%

COGS 1,797.4 2,084.9 587.2 613.7 616.1 604.2 2,421.2 2,522.8 2,683.9

Gross Profit 556.9 649.7 205.6 184.1 197.3 199.2 786.2 766.8 840.2
Gross Margin 23.7% 23.8% 25.9% 23.1% 24.3% 24.8% 24.5% 23.3% 23.8%

Depreciation 96.0 110.0 29.7 31.2 31.5 32.0 124.4 131.4 138.0

SG&A 356.4 379.8 108.7 110.5 111.6 112.5 443.3 445.0 479.3
% of Sales 15.1% 13.9% 13.7% 13.9% 13.7% 14.0% 13.8% 13.5% 13.6%

Other Operating Income (Loss), net 6.2 1.1 (0.7) 0.4 (4.4) (1.0) (5.7) 0.0 0.0

Operating Profit 110.7 161.0 66.5 42.8 49.8 53.8 212.9 190.5 222.9
Operating Margin 4.7% 5.9% 8.4% 5.4% 6.1% 6.7% 6.6% 5.8% 6.3%

Interest Expense (12.0) (10.8) (2.5) (3.3) (3.0) (3.0) (11.8) (12.0) (10.5)
Interest and Other Income, Net 16.9 10.5 2.1 3.0 4.5 2.0 11.6 8.0 5.0

Pretax Income 115.6 160.7 66.1 42.5 51.3 52.8 212.7 186.5 217.4

Income Taxes 44.2 59.5 18.3 4.3 14.3 17.4 54.3 61.5 71.7
Tax rate 38.2% 37.0% 27.7% 10.1% 27.9% 33.0% 25.5% 33.0% 33.0%

Minority Interest 18.3 22.8 14.9 7.5 7.5 10.0 39.9 38.0 40.0

Income from Continuing Operations 53.1 78.4 32.9 30.7 29.5 25.4 118.5 86.9 105.7

Weighted Average Shares Outstanding (Basic) 50.0 46.5 46.5 46.0 46.1 46.1 46.2 46.2 46.2
Weighted Average Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 50.5 47.1 46.9 46.5 46.6 46.6 46.7 46.7 46.7

EPS, Diluted $1.05 $1.67 $0.70 $0.66 $0.63 $0.54 $2.54 $1.86 $2.26

EBITDA 206.7 271.0 96.2 74.0 81.3 85.8 337.3 321.9 360.9
EBITDA Margin 8.8% 9.9% 12.1% 9.3% 10.0% 10.7% 10.5% 9.8% 10.2%

Source: Company documents and Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. estimates.

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 Brink's Company

Figure 10: Balance Sheet

BCO - Balance Sheet
($ in M, except per share data)
Fiscal Year End December 31
3Q08 PF
ASSETS
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents 203.5
Accounts receivable, net 475.5
Prepaid expenses and other 95.8
Deferred income taxes 91.1
Total current assets 865.9

Property and equipment, net 532.5

Goodwill 140.4
Deferred income taxes 130.6
Other 122.9
Total assets 1,792.3

LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY

Current liabilities:
Short-term borrowings 6.2
Current maturities of long-term debt 11.6
Accounts payable 130.8
Income taxes payable 8.0
Accrued liabilities 403.7
Total current liabilities 560.3

Long-term debt 144.5

Accrued pension costs 52.3
Postretirement benefits other than pensions 101.7
Deferred revenue -
Deferred income taxes 51.1
Minority interest 84.6
Other 144.0
Total liabilities 1,138.5

Total shareholders’ equity 653.8

Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity 1,792.3

Source: Company documents and Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.

estimates.

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Brink's Company

Figure 11: Free Cash Flow

BCO - Free Cash Flow
($ in M, except per share data)
Fiscal Year End December 31
2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E

EBITDA 128.0 206.7 271.0 337.3 321.9 360.9

Interest (8.1) 4.9 (0.3) (0.2) (4.0) (5.5)

Taxes (18.4) (44.2) (59.5) (54.3) (61.5) (71.7)

Working Capital NA NA NA (10) (10) (10)

Other 0.8 35.6 62.9 - - -

Capital Expenditures (107.3) (113.5) (141.6) (170.0) (173.0) (177.0)

Free Cash Flow (5.0) 89.5 132.5 102.8 73.3 96.7

Free Cash Flow Per Share -$0.09 $1.77 $2.82 $2.20 $1.57 $2.07

Source: Company documents and Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. estimates.

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 Brink's Company

Price Target Calculation

Our $32 price target represents 4.6x 2009E EV/EBITDA and assumes the company can close the multiple gap with its
peers which trade at about 6x.

Key Risks to Price Target

Under-funded Pension. Although Brink's froze its pension plan more than three years ago and sold its coal business, as of December
2007 it had a gross pension liability of roughly $1.3 billion – $963 million from the frozen pension and $570 million in legacy
postretirement medical liabilities related to the coal business (which it has established a VEBA). As of September 2008, BCO had assets
to reduce the net liability to $160 million ($60 million in pension and $100 million in retiree medical). However, interest rates have
declined meaningfully and the lower discount rate could increase the company's under-funded position. We estimate in 2009 and 2010,
the company will record a non-cash pension expense ~$40 million and will make a cash payment of $75-$125 million in 2010 based on
the September under-funded levels.

Roll-off of Venezuela Contract. Brink's completed a significant project in Venezuela, where it performed cash handling services to
assist in the conversion to the bolivar fuerte from the bolivar. We estimate the contract added more than $50 million to 2008 revenues
and roughly $30 million to operating profit. This activity was a large driver of growth in 2008, and will not repeat in 2009. While investors
are aware of this situation, it nevertheless presents an optical challenge to the company's financial results.

Foreign Currency Translation . Because almost 70% of revenues come from outside North America (e.g., U.S. and Canada),
fluctuations in currency, particularly the Euro, have a meaningful impact on reported revenues. Foreign currency translation added $168
million to revenues in the first 9 months of 2008. However, operating profit tends to be naturally hedged from currency fluctuations, as
BCO's costs are often in the same currency its revenues are. As a result, the $168 million FX benefit in the first 9 months only impacted
pretax profit by only $9.6 million. Further, the recent strength in the dollar could reduce the 2008 impact modestly.

Fuel. With roughly 9,100 vehicles globally, BCO is a large consumer of fuel, on an absolute basis. However, on a percentage of
revenues basis, it is only in the "low-single digits", as is insurance, the other big expense. To cushion the impact of fuel, the company
attempts to structure its contracts to either pass-through the cost or add a surcharge to the base rate charged. As a result, the company
is able to limit its exposure to fuel price fluctuations to one month.

Emerging market Instability. Brink's is one of the largest players in Latin America, where it derives roughly 25% of its revenues and
~8% in Venezuela. This region tends to be highly profitable for BCO, as the business opportunity is large and competition tends to be
fragmented. However, there is greater risk in Latin America in terms of safety and security, geopolitical issues and the threats of
currency devaluation. However, the company has asset worth only $90 million in Venezuela and has operated in the region for more
than 40 year and is well equipped to do business there.

Risk to Consensus Estimates. Although the company has been clear with the investment community about the headwinds it will face
in 2009, we believe "Street estimates" contain several "outliers" that make 2009 consensus too high. In fact, 2009 consensus EPS of
$2.14 is well above our $1.86 estimate. To remedy this, we believe the company could provide guidance either before, or in conjunction
with, its fourth-quarter earnings report slated for early February. Although we think the stock is attractively priced and management has
clearly intimated the headwinds, any earnings revision could negatively impact the share price.

Important Disclosures and Certifications

Analyst Certification - The author certifies that this research report accurately states his/her personal views about the
subject securities, which are reflected in the ratings as well as in the substance of this report.The author certifies that no
part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views
contained in this research report.
Potential Conflicts of Interest:

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Brink's Company

Equity research analysts employed by Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. are compensated from revenues generated by the firm
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interest.

Rating and Price Target History for: Brink's Company (BCO) as of 01-14-2009

75

60

45

30

15

0
2007 2008 2009

Created by BlueMatrix

All price targets displayed in the chart above are for a 12- to- 18-month period. Prior to March 30, 2004, Oppenheimer &
Co. Inc. used 6-, 12-, 12- to 18-, and 12- to 24-month price targets and ranges. For more information about target price
histories, please write to Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., 300 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10017, Attention: Equity Research
Department, Business Manager.

Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Rating System as of January 14th, 2008:

Outperform(O) - Stock expected to outperform the S&P 500 within the next 12-18 months.

Perform (P) - Stock expected to perform in line with the S&P 500 within the next 12-18 months.

Underperform (U) - Stock expected to underperform the S&P 500 within the next 12-18 months.

Not Rated (NR) - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. does not maintain coverage of the stock or is restricted from doing so due to a potential
conflict of interest.

Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Rating System prior to January 14th, 2008:

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 Brink's Company

Buy - anticipates appreciation of 10% or more within the next 12 months, and/or a total return of 10% including dividend payments,
and/or the ability of the shares to perform better than the leading stock market averages or stocks within its particular industry sector.

Neutral - anticipates that the shares will trade at or near their current price and generally in line with the leading market averages due to
a perceived absence of strong dynamics that would cause volatility either to the upside or downside, and/or will perform less well than
higher rated companies within its peer group. Our readers should be aware that when a rating change occurs to Neutral from Buy,
aggressive trading accounts might decide to liquidate their positions to employ the funds elsewhere.

Sell - anticipates that the shares will depreciate 10% or more in price within the next 12 months, due to fundamental weakness
perceived in the company or for valuation reasons, or are expected to perform significantly worse than equities within the peer group.

Distribution of Ratings/IB Services Firmwide

IB Serv/Past 12 Mos.

Rating Count Percent Count Percent

OUTPERFORM [O] 350 47.20 123 35.14

PERFORM [P] 360 48.50 122 33.89
UNDERPERFORM [U] 32 4.30 8 25.00

Although the investment recommendations within the three-tiered, relative stock rating system utilized by Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. do not
correlate to buy, hold and sell recommendations, for the purposes of complying with FINRA rules, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. has assigned
buy ratings to securities rated Outperform, hold ratings to securities rated Perform, and sell ratings to securities rated Underperform.

Additional Information Available

Please log on to http://www.opco.com or write to Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., 300 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10017,
Attention: Equity Research Department, Business Manager.

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investments in such securities, including the loss of investment principal. Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. accepts no liability for any loss arising

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Brink's Company

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Copyright © Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. 2009.

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