Int J Appl  Earth Obs Geoinformation 91 (2020) 102130

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Int J Appl Earth Obs Geoinformation

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jag

Trend analysis and first time observations of sulphur dioxide and nitrogen T
dioxide in South Africa using TROPOMI/Sentinel-5 P data
Lerato Shikwambanaa,*, Paidamwoyo Mhangarab,1, Nkanyiso Mbathac
a
Space Science Directorate, South African National Space Agency, Hermanus 7200, South Africa
b
Earth Observation Directorate, South African National Space Agency, Pretoria 0001, South Africa
c
Department of Geography, University of Zululand, KwaDlangezwa 1001, South Africa

A R T I C LE I N FO A B S T R A C T

Keywords: The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) aim to end extreme poverty and create a healthy, sustainable
Power plant world by the year 2030. Goal 7 is of interest to this study as it targets access to clean and affordable energy.
Sulphur dioxide However, in this study we show that the energy created in South Africa is not necessary clean. South Africa has
OMI numerous coal-fired power station located in the Mpumalanga (MP), Gauteng (GP) and Limpopo (LP) provinces.
Nitrogen dioxide
These power station produce tons of toxic pollutants including sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2)
Sentinel-5p
and sulphates (SO4). These pollutants are known to have a negative impact on human health, climate and the
environment. In this study we use the sequential Mann-Kendall test to investigate the 39 year (1980–2019)
trends of SO2, NO2 and SO4 from these source areas. We also report for the first time on the observations of SO2
and NO2 from the Sentinel-5 P sensor over South Africa. Increasing trends of SO2 were observed in the MP, LP
and GP regions. The increase was mostly due to the emissions from coal-fired power stations. Moreover, the
increase of SO2 over the years could be due to the increasing demand in electricity, aging power stations and the
low quality of coal used. Sentinel-5 P observations of SO2 and NO2 over South Africa were observed in the MP,
GP and LP regions as a result of coal-fired power stations. Dispersion of SO2 and NO2 over South Africa were
observed in the winter months, while confined SO2 and NO2 in the source region were observed in the summer
months.

1. Introduction environment. Satellite technology can play a critical role in monitoring

The impact of air quality on human health is recognized in the
United Nations Sustainable Development Goals 7 (SDG). SDGs for
health, energy and cities clearly are interlinked to air pollution (Rafaj
et al., 2018). Indicator 3.9.1 relates to air pollution-related mortality
while 7.1.2 is focused to access to clean energy in homes and lastly
11.6.2 is targeted towards monitoring air quality in cities (UN, 2015;
Amegah and Agyei-Mensah, 2017). According the World Health Orga-
nization (WHO, 2016), air pollution related diseases cause about 6.5
million deaths and it is estimated that up to 92 % of the global popu-
lation dwell in areas whose air quality exceed the WHO thresholds
(WHO, 2016; Rafaj et al., 2018). It is estimated that air pollution had
harmful effects on human health and that 36 % of deaths are from lung
cancer, 34 % of stroke while 27 % are linked to heart diseases (WHO,
2016). Regular monitoring and reducing the amounts of air pollution is
therefore critical in mitigating its impacts on human health and the
air quality at national, regional, continental and global scale (Geddes
et al., 2015; Lin et al., 2015; Ialongo et al., 2016).
The detrimental climate change consequences of increasing green-
house gas emissions are a matter of global concern (Jain, 1993). Sul-
phur dioxide and nitrogen oxides are indirect greenhouse gases that
ultimately impact on global warming by producing direct greenhouse
gases through their reactions with other chemical constituents into the
atmosphere. Moreover, sulphur dioxide emissions are known to reduce
the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere. Thus increasing the emissions
subsequently accelerates the accumulation of greenhouse gases and
other pollutants in the atmosphere (Ward, 2009). Apparently, sulphur
dioxide emissions form aerosols with other chemical compounds in the
atmosphere that directly affect climate through scattering and absorp-
tion of solar radiation, and indirectly by acting as cloud condensation
nuclei (CCN) (Wuebbles and Jain, 2001). Wuebbles et al. (1989)
highlights that sulphur gases are the primary precursor of stratospheric

⁎
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: lshikwambana@gmail.com (L. Shikwambana).
1
Present address: School of geography, archaeology and environmental studies, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg 2000, South Africa

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2020.102130
Received 21 December 2019; Received in revised form 31 March 2020; Accepted 16 April 2020
0303-2434/ © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/BY-NC-ND/4.0/).
L. Shikwambana, et al.
aerosols and that the interaction of these aerosols with solar and IR
radiation subsequently results in the warming of the stratosphere and
cooling of the troposphere.
Greenhouse gas emissions are known to trap heat in the atmosphere
and known to contribute to global warming (Solomon et al., 2010;
Zhong and Haigh, 2013; Ritchie and Roser, 2019). In most cases, green
gas emissions are caused by combustion of hydrocarbons such as coal,
petroleum, natural gases, industrial processes, electricity generation
and transportation (Pandey et al., 2018; Liggio et al., 2019; Hardisty
et al., 2012; Kim, 2019; Moowaw, 1996). In this sense, a significant
proportion of the greenhouse gas emissions are produced by developed
and industrialized countries such as China, USA and Australia
(Hoornweg et al., 2011). Emerging economies such as India, Brazil and
South Africa are frequently ranked within the top 20 emitters of
greenhouse gases South Africa is the leading producer of greenhouse
gases on the Africa continent largely due to its advanced level of in-
dustrialization that is powered by fossil fuels such as coal and petro-
leum products such as diesel (Seymore et al., 2014). South Africa is
endowed with extensive coal resources that are predominately found in
the Mpumalanga, Free State, Limpopo and KwaZulu-Natal provinces.
Coal is used to fire most of the electricity generating plants in South
Africa.
South Africa currently faces chronic electricity shortages due to
ageing and failing infrastructure in some of its old coal-fired power
stations. To avert its immediate electricity challenges necessary to
support economic growth, Eskom is currently building two coal-fired
power stations named Medupi and Kusile in the Mpumalanga and
Limpopo provinces respectively. Additional coal-fired power stations
entail greater greenhouse gas emissions and more atmospheric pollu-
tion. Increased carbon dioxide emission accelerates global warming
(Solomon et al., 2009), and increased atmospheric pollution poses re-
spiratory health problems for humans and the surrounding environment
(Robertson, 2006; Ghorani-Azam et al., 2016). The country’s power
utility Eskom predominately generates its electricity using coal-fired
thermal power stations that produce significant proportions of carbon
dioxide, a known greenhouse gas (Zhong and Haigh, 2013). Besides
carbon dioxide, coal-fired power plants are known to produce atmo-
spheric pollutants such as Sulphur dioxide and Nitrogen oxides (Bo
et al., 2018; Dai et al., 2019). According to the International Energy
Agency, South Africa is ranked 14th globally, in terms of cumulative
carbon dioxide emissions in 2016 (IEA, 2019). It is estimated to have
produced 414.4 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions and
7.4 metric tons per capita through fuel combustion.
The 2019 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report
emphasizes the need to radically accelerate the speed and scale of cli-
mate action. Reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from coal power
plants is one of the fundamental actions necessary in limiting rising
global temperatures. Containing escalating global temperatures is cru-
cial in mitigating the impacts of climate change due to global warming.
Climate change is associated with extreme weather events (Janković
and Schultz, 2017) such as cyclones, floods, droughts and heat waves
all that are known to have devastating social and economic impacts.
The impacts of climate change are already being felt in most parts of the
world. In the last few decades, the frequency and intensity of weather-
induced transboundary disasters such as recurrent droughts, floods and
severe cyclones have been on the rise in most parts of Southern Africa.
The catastrophic impacts of Cyclone Idai that ravaged Mozambique and
Zimbabwe in April 2019 are well recorded. At least 2000 people were
killed by floods accompanying the cyclone. Built-up infrastructure such
as road networks, bridges, houses, telecommunication systems, school
and clinics were also destroyed by floods. This cyclone also destroyed
the food security system of the rural communities whose agricultural
fields are eroded. Similarly, the Western Cape Province in South Africa
experienced a protracted drought that left the province and city of Cape
Town with very little water from 2015−2018. These extreme climate
events signal the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, in
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Int J Appl  Earth Obs Geoinformation 91 (2020) 102130
particular, carbon dioxide.
South Africa is a signatory to several international conventions
aimed at mitigating the impacts of climate change. Key among them is
the and United Nations Framework on Climate Change Convention
(UNFCCC) that administers the Doha amended Kyoto Protocol and the
Paris Agreement, that forms the new global pact on climate change.
South Africa also participates in the IPCC and Conference of the Parties
(COP) and is a signatory to the Sendai Agreement on Disaster Risk
Reduction. The country’s membership to all these international con-
ventions on climate highlights South Africa’s political will to reduce
carbon dioxide emissions. In South Africa, the National Environmental
Management: Air Quality Act (39/2004) provides the prescripts that
regulate the reporting of Greenhouse Gas Emissions. The legislation is
further supported by Technical Guidelines for the Monitoring,
Reporting and Verification of Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Industry
promulgated in 2017. Greenhouse gas emissions are reported.
Regulated greenhouse gases covered by the technical guideline include
carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydro-
fluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), Sulphur hexafluoride
(SF6). South Africa as a member of the UNFCCC reports these green-
house gas emissions to COP on an annual basis.
Understanding the spatial distribution of greenhouse hotspots, their
concentration and circulatory patterns is fundamental in regulating
greenhouse gas emissions. The monitoring of greenhouse gas emissions
is increasingly being made feasible through the use of satellite remote
sensing. Several studies using ground based instruments and satellite
data to measure sulphur dioxide (SO2), sulphate (SO4) and nitrogen
dioxide (NO2) over South Africa have been conducted (Martins et al.,
2007; Josipovic et al., 2010, 2011; Lourens et al., 2011; Shikwambana
and Sivakumar, 2019). Datasets from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument
(OMI), passive samplers and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for
Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) were used in those
studies.
This study, however, has two objectives; (i) to analyse the spatial
distribution of greenhouse gas emissions over South Africa and to assess
the temporal patterns of greenhouse gas emissions due to coal-fired
power stations using for the first time Sentinel-5 P satellite data, and (ii)
to analyse the long term trends of SO2, SO4 and NO2 in the hotspots
using the MERRA-2 data.
2. Study region
At present South Africa has a total power generating capacity of ∼
52.8 MW; ∼ 9.2 MW (∼17.4 %) is from renewable energy (Solar PV,
wind and nuclear) and ∼ 43.6 MW comes from fossil fuels (∼ 82.6 %).
Out of the 43.3 MW fossil fuel generation, coal produces ∼ 40 MW.
There are currently 18 operating coal fired power plants in South Africa
(see Fig. 1) varying in generating capacity. 12 coal fired power plants
are located in the Mpumalanga province (MP), 2 coal fired power plants
are located in the Limpopo province (LP) and 4 coal fired power plants
are located in the Gauteng province (GP). These coal fired power plants
are located in the Highveld of South Africa. The Highveld is known for
its various human activities, which include power generation, coal
dumps, transportation, petrochemical operations, agriculture, and me-
tallurgical and mining operations (Freiman and Piketh, 2002;
Dabrowski et al., 2008). Human activities in this area contribute to high
levels of gaseous pollutants in the atmosphere. In the winter season
(June-July-August) the area experiences additional combustion of coal
and wood for domestic heating as well as an increase in biomass
burning in the spring season (September-October-November) from
wildfires (Lourens et al., 2011).
L. Shikwambana, et al.
Fig. 1. Locations of coal fired-power plants in South Africa.
3. Data and methods
3.1. Sentinel-5 P
Sentinel-5 Precursor (Sentinel-5 P), launched on 13 October 2017, is
the first Copernicus mission satellite devoted to monitoring the atmo-
sphere. A spectrometer called TROPOMI (TROPOspheric Monitoring
Instrument) is on board Sentinel 5 P and measures ultraviolet earth-
shine radiances at high spectral. TROPOMI maps the global atmosphere
daily with a resolution of 7 km × 3.5 km (which is 13 times better than
the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (Theys et al., 2019), this allows the
resolution of fine details including the detection of much smaller SO2
plumes. TROPOMI has the capability to map a multitude of trace gases
such as NO2, ozone, formaldehyde, SO2, methane, carbon monoxide
and aerosols. These trace gases and aerosols can be viewed by three
different data streams: the near-real-time (NRTI) stream, the Offline
stream (OFFL) and the Reprocessing (RPRO) stream. NRTI data are
available within 3 h after data acquisition whereas OFFL and RPRO
data are available within a few days after acquisition.
For this work, the TROPOMI Offline stream of SO2 and NO2 column
datasets were used for the period from December 2018 to September
2019. The data was analysed using the Earth Engine Code Editor and
the QGIS software.
3.2. Modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications version
2 (MERRA-2)
The Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and
Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) is a NASA atmospheric reanalysis for
the satellite era using the Goddard Earth Observing System Model,
Version 5 (GEOS-5) with its Atmospheric Data Assimilation System
(ADAS), version 5.12.4 (Bosilovich et al., 2015; Gelaro et al., 2017). It
spans the satellite observing era from 1980 to the present. MERRA-2
contains a substantial improvement in that it incorporates an aerosol
component and assimilates aerosol observations (Randles et al., 2017;
Buchard et al., 2017). The aerosol values in MERRA-2 are directly
generated by the GOCART model based on GEOS‐5 in real time, and the
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) “dark
target” algorithm derived data are assimilated into the MERRA-2 and
AOD data from Multi‐angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) over
bright land surfaces only (Randles et al., 2017).
For this work SO2 and SO4 surface mass concentration datasets were
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Int J Appl  Earth Obs Geoinformation 91 (2020) 102130
used for the period from January 1980 to December 2018. The data was
analysed using the MATLAB software.
3.3. Cloud-aerosol Lidar and infrared pathfinder satellite observation
(CALIPSO)
The Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite
Observation (CALIPSO) satellite was launched in April 2006 but sci-
entific observations started in June 2006 (Winker et al., 2007). Since
the beginning of observations CALIPSO has acquired a global, nearly
continuous, record of vertical-resolved measurements of clouds and
aerosols (Liu et al., 2010). One of the three CALIPSO payload, the
Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) comprises
of a two-wavelength (532 nm and 1064 nm) polarization ratio-sensitive
backscatter lidar. The two-wavelength signals provide qualitative in-
formation on particle size, assist in discrimination of cloud and aerosol,
and can identify aerosol types (Winker et al., 2007). A detailed de-
scription and the initial performance assessment of the CALIOP in-
strument is given by Winker et al. (2004). The data processing algo-
rithms for the retrieval of level 2 aerosol and cloud products are given
by Winker et al. (2009).
For this work AOD elevated smoke and AOD polluted dust datasets
were used for the period from July 2018 to June 2019. The data was
analysed using the MATLAB software.
3.4. Ozone monitoring instrument (OMI)
The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) was launched aboard the
EOS-Aura satellite on July 2004. A full description of OMI is given by
Levelt et al. (2006). OMI measures backscattered solar radiance in the
dayside portion of each orbit and solar irradiance near the northern
hemisphere terminator once per day in three channels covering the
270–500 nm wavelength range (UV‐1: 270–310 nm, UV‐2: 310–365 nm,
visible: 350–500 nm) at spectral resolutions of 0.42–0.63 nm (Kroon
et al., 2011) The OMI data products are derived from the ratio of Earth
radiance and solar irradiance and come in the form of Level‐2 orbit files
that contain trace gas abundances such as O3, NO2, SO2, HCHO, BrO,
CHOCHO, OClO as well as UV‐absorbing aerosol and cloud properties.
For this work NO2 total column datasets for the period from October
2004 to December 2018 were used. The data was downloaded from
https://giovanni.gsfc.nasa.gov/giovanni/#service=TmAvMp&
starttime=&endtime= and was analysed using the MATLAB software.
L. Shikwambana, et al.
3.5. Sequential Mann-Kendall test
The Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test proposed by Sneyers
(1990) is used to identify abrupt changes in significant trends (Sneyers,
1997; Sneyers et al., 1998; Lu et al., 2004; Mbatha and Xulu, 2018).
This test sets up two series, a progressive u (t ) and a retrograde (back-
ward) series u′ (t ) . If they cross each other and diverge beyond the
specific threshold value, then there is a statistically significant trend.
The point where they cross each other indicates the approximate year at
which the trend begins (Mosmann et al., 2004). The threshold values in
this study are ± 1.96 (p = 0.05), with the crossing point estimating the
year at which the trend begins. The SQMK test has the following steps:
I At each comparison, the number of cases x i > x j is counted and
indicated by ni , where x i (i = 1, 2, ..., n) and x j (j = 1, 2, ..., n) are the
sequential values in a series, respectively.
II The test statistic ti is calculated by
i Fig. 2d shows the averaged wind speed and wind direction at 950 hPa
ti = ∑ nj
j=1
III The mean E (t ) and the variance var(ti ) of the test statistic are cal-
culated by
n (n − 1)
E (t ) = ,
4 (2)
i (i − 1)(2i + 5)
var(ti ) = . linear regression and the SQMK test to the observed MERRA-2 and OMI
72
IV Sequential progressive value can be calculated as
ti − E (t )
u (t ) = .
var(ti )
Similarly, the values of u′ (t ) are computed backward, starting from
the end of series.
4. Results
4.1. Spatial distribution of SO2, SO4, NO2 and wind
Averaged SO2 and SO4 surface mass concentrations maps from the
MERRA-2 data for the period of 1980–2018 are observed in Fig. 2a and
b. Fig. 2a shows hotspots of SO2 in the Limpopo province (LP), Gauteng
province (GP), Mpumalanga province (MP) and the south western parts
of Lesotho (LS). High concentrations of SO2 in these hotspots are mainly
from coal-fired power plants as seen in Fig. 1. Emissions of SO2 from
these hotspots have also been observed by (Girmay and Chikobvu,
2017; Josipovic et al., 2010). However, these studies were prior to the
first unit of the Medupi coal power plant (located in LP) being com-
missioned in August 2015, only one power plant (Matimba) was op-
erational in LP during their study. For example, Josipovic et al. (2010)
reported an average SO2 concentration of ∼4 μg/m3 in the LP region
for the period September 2005 to August 2007. In this study we observe
an average SO2 concentration of ∼ 7 μg/m3 in the same area. This large
increase can be mainly attributed to the operation of the new power
plant. The hotspot in the LS region is rather peculiar as that area does
not have coal-fired power stations or smelters which are the biggest
know emitters of SO2. The region has an abundance of agricultural
activities which could serve as a potential source of SO2 emission.
Emission of various sulphur gases has been reported from the land
ecosystems (Kanda and Tsuruta, 1995). However, at this point there are
some uncertainties on the exact source of SO2 in this region. Interest-
ingly, there are no reports of this hotspot from other sensors like OMI
and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS). Sentinel 5 P, which
has a better resolution than OMI does not detect this hotspot either, as
Int J Appl  Earth Obs Geoinformation 91 (2020) 102130
will be seen later. SO4 aerosols are also observed in the LS, MP, GP and
LP regions (see Fig. 2b). SO4 aerosols from GP, MP and LP are largely
emitted from coal-fired power stations. SO4 aerosols can be formed
from SO2 by the photochemical transformation process (Cheng et al.,
1987). The conversion rate is known to be on the order of a few percent
per hour in direct sunlight. This is the reason why lower concentrations
of SO4 (∼ 2.3 μg/m3) in the LS regions are observed compared to a
concentration of ∼ 3.5 μg/m3 in the GP and MP regions. NO2 (see
Fig. 2c) is mostly observed in the MP region because of the many coal-
fired power plants compared to the LP region which only has 2 power
plants. NO2 is emitted from power plants located in the MP, GP and LP
regions. The LS region has no source for NO2.
Wind speed has been found to be one of the most important factors
affecting transport and dispersion of aerosols and gases. Weaker wind
speeds in the lower layer of the atmosphere reduces aerosol transport/
dispersion and favours the accumulation of aerosols near their sources
thus increasing the local aerosol concentrations (Yang et al., 2017).
over South Africa, for the period 1980–2018. LP, MP, GP and LS all
(1) have weak wind speeds of ∼ 5.7 m/s. These lower layer wind speeds
correspond to the accumulation of gases and aerosols at their source
point as can be seen in Fig. 2a–c. LP is dominated by south-westerly
winds whereas GP, MP and LS are dominated by south easterly winds.
4.1.1. Trend analysis
In this section we discuss the long term trends (1980–2018) of SO2,
SO4 and NO2 for the MP, GP, LP and LS regions. Here we apply the
(3)
datasets. Fig. 3 shows the linear regression trends of SO2, SO4 and NO2
in the MP region. The linear fit shows an increasing trend of SO2 and
SO4 over time. It is known that the major source of this SO2 and SO4 is
from the coal-fired power stations in the area (Shikwambana and
(4) Sivakumar, 2019; Sangeetha and Sivakumar, 2019). South Africa built
and commissioned a few coal fired power stations between 1980 and
2018. For example, Duvha Power Station (25.6 °S, 29.2 °E) was com-
missioned between (1980–1984) and Kendal Power Station (26.1 °S,
28.6 °E) was commissioned between (1988–1992). The increase in the
number of commissioned coal fired power stations over time contribute
significantly to the loading of SO2 and SO4 concentration in the atmo-
sphere. Unexpectedly NO2 shows a decreasing trend even with the
addition of coal fired plants over time. The main reason for this could
be the development of “low NOx” boilers which are meant to reduce the
emissions of NO2 and NOx (Lloyd, 1987; Krzyzynska, 2012). The SQMK
test shows an increasing trend for SO2 and a decreasing trend for NO2.
An increasing trend of SO2 is observed from 1985 while the decreasing
trend of NO2 is observed from 2005. Because of the multiple intersec-
tions of the progressive and retrograde series a trend of SO4 cannot be
established.
Fig. 4 shows linear regression trends of surface SO2, surface SO4 and
total column NO2 in the GP region. Again linear regression for SO2 and
SO4 demonstrate an increasing trend while NO2 shows a slight de-
creasing trend. The SQMK test for SO2 shows an increasing trend which
is in agreement with the linear regression trend. The major contributor
is from coal fired power stations. The GP region has 4 old coal power
stations with the first one commissioned in 1957 and the last one
commissioned between (1985–1990). To date no new coal fired power
stations have been built in the GP region. The use of low rank coals,
such as lignite and sub-bituminous coals, which have high moisture
levels, a low carbon content and a slightly higher sulphur content could
be one the reasons for the increasing SO2 concentration over time.
Generally, SO2 emissions from coal combustion depends primarily on
the sulphur content in the coal unlike the emissions of NOx which de-
pends on the operating conditions and the design of the plant. The
SQMK test for SO4 and NO2 does not show any trend for the study
period.
Fig. 5 shows linear regression trends of SO2 and SO4 in the LP
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L. Shikwambana, et al.
Fig. 2. Spatial distribution maps of (a) SO2, (b) SO4 and (c) NO2. (d) Composite mean MERRA-2 wind speed (m/s) and wind direction over South Africa.
region. Both SO2 and SO4 concentrations show an increase over time.
The SQMK test is in agreement with the linear regression as it also
shows an increasing trend for both SO2 and SO4. An increasing trend for
SO2 is observed from 1985 and the increasing trend for SO4 is observed
from 1990. The major contributor of SO2 and SO4 are from the two coal
fired power plants in the region. The first coal power plant in LP was
commissioned between (1987–1993) and the first unit of the second
power plant was commissioned in 2015. The second coal fired power
plant is expected to commission five more units in the near future
which will likely increase the concentrations of SO2 and SO4 in the LP
region.
Fig. 6 shows linear regression trends of SO2 and SO4 in the LS re-
gion. A significant increasing trend of SO2 is observed over time while
there is a slight increase of SO4 overtime. The SQMK test also shows an
increasing SO2 trend from 1984 but no trend was established for SO4.
Fig. 3. Forward-backward series of SQMK test applied in the SO2 and SO4 data series over the periods of 1980-2018. NO2 data series over the periods of 2004-2018 in
the Mpumalanga province, South Africa.
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Int J Appl  Earth Obs Geoinformation 91 (2020) 102130
4.2. SO2 and NO2 observations by Sentinel-5 P and ground based
measurements
Monthly averaged surface SO2 and NO2 maps from December 2018
to September 2019 are shown in Figs. 7 and 8 respectively. Further-
more, the seasonal 50-meter wind maps for the period (1980–2019)
over South Africa are shown in Fig. 9. During the months of December
2018 to April 2019 (summer-autumn months) two distinct hot spots are
observed in the LP and MP regions. The major contributor of SO2 is
from coal fired power plants in these regions. SO2 is concentrated close
to the source (power plants) because of the unstable atmospheric con-
ditions during these months. Furthermore, other factors like the vertical
temperature gradients, precipitation and turbulence determine the
stability of the atmosphere and the behaviour of the plume. As a way of
example, in the summer months a decrease in the concentration and
dispersion of SO2 could be due to heavy rains (Yoo et al., 2014).
However, from May 2019 to July 2019 (autumn-winter months) the
dispersion of SO2 throughout South Africa is observed. The more stable
L. Shikwambana, et al. Int J Appl  Earth Obs Geoinformation 91 (2020) 102130

Fig. 4. Forward-backward series of SQMK test applied in the SO2 and SO4 data series over the periods of 1980-2018. NO2 data series over the periods of 2004-2018 in
the Gauteng province, South Africa.

Fig. 5. Forward-backward series of SQMK test applied in the SO2 and SO4 data series over the periods of 1980-2018 in the Limpopo province, South Africa.

Fig. 6. Forward-backward series of SQMK test applied in the SO2 and SO4 data series over the periods of 1980-2018 in Lesotho.

condition of the atmosphere in this period is main reason for the rapid mainly heating which would result in a. From August 2019 to Sep-
dispersion of SO2. However, during the winter months there is also an tember 2019 there is a decrease in the dispersion of SO2 due to the
increase in emission volume due an increase in electricity demand for change in the atmospheric conditions i.e. unstable atmospheric

6
L. Shikwambana, et al.
Fig. 7. Average TROPOMI SO2 tropospheric columns over South Africa during the period of December 2018 to September 2019.
conditions increase. Two different dispersion SO2 maps are observed
during the March 2019 and June 2019 periods. The Northern Cape
province (NC) is a region dominated by dust and has no sources of SO2
which is illustrated in the March 2019 period. However, during the
June 2019 period traces of SO2 are observed over this region. The
unstable atmospheric conditions favours this.
Monthly averaged NO2 maps from December 2018 to September
2019 are shown in Fig. 8. Three distinct hot spots are observed in the
LP, MP and GP regions. The LP and MP NO2 hot spots are mainly from
coal fired power plants. However, the hot spots in GP have contribu-
tions from coal fired power plants, household combustion and traffic
emissions (Josipovic et al., 2010). This notion can be made due to the
fact that NO2 has a short lifetime (from a few hours up to a day)
meaning that its concentrations are generally representative of the local
NO2 emission strength (Georgoulias et al., 2019). During the months of
December 2018 to April 2019 there is less dispersion of NO2. The re-
duced levels of NO2 in the summer months can be attributed to the
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Int J Appl  Earth Obs Geoinformation 91 (2020) 102130
contribution of NO2 to photochemical reactions occurring under the
influence of solar radiation which result in the formation of ozone (O3)
(Cichowicz et al., 2017). The unstable atmospheric conditions during
these months also contributes to the localised NO2. The most dispersion
and highest concentration of NO2 is observed in the May 2019 to July
2019 months (autumn-winter) which are known to have very stable
atmospheric conditions. The stable conditions limit the amount of at-
mospheric dilution. The lack of rainfall during these months also means
more NO2 in the atmosphere. The August 2019 and September 2019 are
towards the unstable atmospheric conditions as well as rainfall. This
result in the less dispersion and concentration of NO2 during these
months.
Time series of ground based surface concentration measurements of
SO2 and NO2 over the MP region, see Fig. 8, are in agreement with the
observation of sentinel-5p. Five ground stations located at Ermelo
(26.51 °S, 29.98 °E), Hendrina (26.16 °S, 29.72 °E), Middleburg
(25.77 °S, 29.46 °E), Secunda (26.51 °S, 29.19 °E) and Emalahleni
L. Shikwambana, et al.
Fig. 8. Average TROPOMI NO2 tropospheric columns over South Africa during the period of December 2018 to September 2019.
(25.87 °S, 29.25 °E) are used for this validation. The mean highest
concentration of SO2 (∼100 ppbv) and NO2 (∼100 ppbv) are observed
during the months of June, July and August (winter season). This is in
agreement with the study conducted by Sangeetha and Sivakumar
(2019) over the MP and GP regions were they also observed high
concentrations of SO2 during the winter periods of 2011–2014. More-
over, Fig. 8a shows that the Emalahleni region accounts for most of the
SO2 emission during the winter period while the Middleburg region
accounts for most of the NO2 emission in winter. The older and aging
power stations in Middleburg could be the reason for the vast amount of
emission of NO2.
4.3. MERRA-2 wind analysis
Seasonal variability of close to surface wind speed and direction is
known to influence the concentration of pollutants in terms of its
variability and dispersion. In this study, we assessed the climatological
characteristics of the close to surface winds over Southern Africa for
8
Int J Appl  Earth Obs Geoinformation 91 (2020) 102130
four seasons namely summer (December-January-February, DJF), au-
tumn (March-April-May, MAM), winter (June-July-August, JJA) and
spring (September-October-November, SON). Fig. 10 shows the clima-
tology of Modern-Era Retrospective analyses for Research and Appli-
cations version 2 (MERRA-2) seasonal-mean surface wind speed (m/s)
with horizontal wind vectors plotted for 50 m above the surface for DJF,
MAM, JJA, and SON for the time period 1980 to 2019. It is evident in
Fig. 9a that during the summer season, the eastern part of Southern
Africa is influenced by south-easterly trades that are pushed by the
Indian Ocean High that normally sits in the Indian Ocean south-east of
South Africa. During the same season, the west of Southern Africa is
influenced by the south east trades which are caused by the folding of
the South Atlantic High. In general, there is a slow movement of air
masses (∼ 4 m/s) during summer (DJF) and autumn (MAM) in the
Highveld region, which is indicated by dominant navy bluish patches in
Fig. 10a and 10b. During this time, both the NO2 and SO2 pollutants are
confined to the main pollution source area, which is the MP area.
During the winter (Fig. 10c) and spring (Fig. 10d) seasons, the wind
L. Shikwambana, et al.
Fig. 9. Time series of hourly (a) SO2 and (b) NO2 over the MP region for the period 1 December 2018 to 31 October 2019.
speed peaks up to approximately 7 m/s in some area in MP and GP
areas, with wind vectors indicting a strong high pressure like motion
that sits over the both Mpumalanga province and Gauteng province.
This type of motion is possibly responsible for the dispersion of NO2 and
SO2 pollutants from eastern part of Mpumalanga towards South Africa’s
biggest City, Johannesburg, and its surrounding areas, which is ob-
served in the JJA season (see Figs. 11 and 12). Strong winds in the
Southern Africa during winter months are primarily due to strong cold
fronts, moving mostly over the southern half of South Africa. The rid-
ging of the high pressure systems behind the cold fronts also play a role
in accelerating winds. The stronger winds which are taking a high
pressure form over GP and MP during winter and late winter months
also indicates a stable atmosphere during this period, which is re-
sponsible for trapping pollution in this region. Sumer months slower
wind speeds could be associated with unstable atmosphere and hence
the observed strong pollutants in the coal mining areas at MP and
surrounding areas.
4.4. CALIPSO observations
In this section we discuss the particulates emitted by the coal fired
power stations in the LP, MP and GP regions using CALIPSO. Fine
particulate matter (PM) and gases are constitutes expected to be
9
Int J Appl  Earth Obs Geoinformation 91 (2020) 102130
observed. CALIPSO does not have the capability to classify the type of
gas or PM from the power plants, but CALIPSO can identify whether a
particular constituent is smoke (gas) or polluted dust (PM). Fig. 13
shows plots of latitude versus AOD elevated smoke and AOD polluted
dust for the period of July 2018 to June 2019. The latitudes between
23.5 °S and 28 °S correspond to the GP, MP and LP regions containing
coal fired power plants. Moderate values of AOD polluted dust (be-
tween 0.02 and 0.04) are observed in the May, June, July, August,
September, October and November months. These correspond to the
months with the largest spatial distribution of SO2 and NO2 emitted by
coal fired power plants. On the other hand, low values of AOD polluted
dust (> 0.02) are observed in the April, December, January and Feb-
ruary months. These correspond to the months with the less spatial
distribution of SO2 and NO2 from the coal fired power stations. Smoke
plumes are emitted from smokestacks in power plants. Smoke detected
by CALIPSO from the power plants is relatively low (AOD elevated
smoke < 0.02). Most of the months under this study show less smoke
emission except for the months of August, September and March. It is
known that biomass burning occurs in the late winter and early spring.
Hence moderate AOD elevated smoke (between 0.02 and 0.04) is ob-
served in the August and September months. A large contribution of the
observed smoke could be from biomass burning with minor contribu-
tions from the power plants.
L. Shikwambana, et al. Int J Appl  Earth Obs Geoinformation 91 (2020) 102130

Fig. 10. Magnitude and direction of the MERRA-2 wind averaged for summer (a), autumn (b), winder (c) and spring for the period 1980-2019 over Southern Africa.

Fig. 11. Seasonal averaged spatial distribution of SO2 for the period of December 2018 to November 2019.

5. Discussion
This study demonstrates the feasibility of monitoring SO2 and NO2
emissions over a long period of time. The monitoring of air quality in
localities such as cities has been prioritized under SDG 11.6.2. Our
study therefore illustrates that satellite based earth observation can be
used to monitor air quality due to SO2 and NO2 emissions at national
scale. The integrated use multiple datasets from satellite instruments
such as Sentinel-5 P and OMI, and reanalysis data such as MERRA-2
allows long-term time series analysis of SO2 and NO2 emissions.
Although significant effort has been exerted towards regulating,
controlling and preventing emissions due to combustion of coal in
power stations across South Africa our results show a steady increase of
SO2 emission from 1980 to 2019. The growing reliance on coal in South

10
L. Shikwambana, et al. Int J Appl  Earth Obs Geoinformation 91 (2020) 102130

Fig. 12. Seasonal averaged spatial distribution of SO2 for the period of December 2018 to November 2019.

Fig. 13. Latitude versus AOD elevated smoke and AOD polluted dust for the period of July 2018 to June 2019.

11
L. Shikwambana, et al.
Africa is largely to due to rising energy demands and the continued use
of aging and inefficient power generating infrastructure. The results
indicate that SO2 and NO2 emissions are considerable above the sti-
pulated emissions within the South African Ambient Air Quality
Standards. Tshehla and Wright (2019) recently provided a commentary
on the failure of legal instruments to contain air pollution in South
Africa. The spatial and temporal variability of evident in the SO2 and
NO2 emissions results could be a result of variability in terms of coal
content, power generation plant design, location of coal fired plant and
the prevailing atmospheric conditions related to wind direction and
ambient temperature (Pretorius, 2015). Seasonality is also considered
to have an effect on ground level concentration of SO2 and NO2 pol-
lutants. The quality of coal used in coal-fired stations is considered to
have a major impact on emission levels. In South Africa, the quality of
coal is varying considerably across regions and is generally known to
have high ash content, low sulphur content and low calorific values
compared to other countries. The variability on sulphur content for
instance has a bearing on SO2 emissions. While some stations have been
retrofitted with modern and more efficient emissions abatement tech-
nologies, overall emissions are not expected to decrease until 2030
(Pretorius, 2015). Muthige (2013) investigated the ambient air quality
impact of the Matimba power station within the Lephalale area (LP) in
South Africa and concluded that power station contributes significantly
to the ground level concentrations of SO2 and that the power station
was not the only source of NOx.
6. Conclusions
The increasing number of power stations in South Africa are likely
to cause a further increase in the SO2, NOx and other harmful pollu-
tants. The results from this study clearly show an increasing trend of
SO2 concentration in the MP, GP and LP regions. This increase is mainly
due to the increasing demand in electricity, aging power stations and
the low quality of coal used. To reduce the emissions of SO2 and other
toxic pollutants cleaner/greener energy forms such as solar energy are
needed to be fully developed in the country. South Africa has a great
advantage in setting up solar plants because of its high level of sun-
shine, which is one of the major requirements for Photovoltaic (PV)
panels.
The study also demonstrates the first results of Sentinel-5 P in the
observations of SO2 and NO2 over South Africa. Hot spots are observed
in the MP, GP and LP regions as a result of coal-fired power stations.
Under unstable atmospheric conditions (summer-autumn season) SO2
and NO2 plumes are confined to the main pollution source area.
However, under stable atmospheric conditions (winter- early spring
seasons) the dispersions of NO2 and SO2 are observed. Seasonal me-
teorological conditions such as wind speed and wind direction play an
important role in the dispersion and confined of SO2 and NO2. These
results are in agreement with previous studies (Josipovic et al., 2011;
Lourens et al., 2011; Shikwambana and Sivakumar, 2019).
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Lerato Shikwambana: Conceptualization, Methodology, Writing -
original draft, Writing - review & editing, Software, Data curation,
Visualization, Investigation. Paidamwoyo Mhangara:
Conceptualization, Methodology, Writing - original draft, Writing - re-
view & editing, Software. Nkanyiso Mbatha: Conceptualization,
Methodology, Writing - original draft, Writing - review & editing,
Software.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to
12
Int J Appl  Earth Obs Geoinformation 91 (2020) 102130
influence the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgements
We acknowledge the GES-DISC Interactive Online Visualization and
Analysis Infrastructure (Giovanni) for providing us with the MERRA-2
and OMI data. CALIPSO data was obtained from the NASA Langley
Research Centre Atmospheric Science Data Centre and we are thankful.
The authors gratefully acknowledge ESA for the Sentinel-5 P/TROPOMI
products.
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary material related to this article can be found, in the
online version, at doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2020.102130.
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