Tating, Dan Louie Renz P.

January 12, 2011

2010-20212
Task on a Science-Based Scenario Paper

Reference: Abueva, Jose et al. (1998). The Book on the Future: The Philippines Into the
21st Century. Quezon City, Philippines: University of the Philippines Press.

On Population and Demography [page 31]

Ѿ Even if the current growth rates (2.2% to 2.3%) decline, the total population will still
increase by about one million a year from 71 million in 1998 to about 81 million by the
end of the first decade, plus 9.5 million more in the next, and 9 million in the third
decade.
Ѿ The level of urbanization, now 50%, will increase to 55%, 62% and 68% by the end
of each of the next three decades.
Ѿ As a significant indicator of changing family characteristics, the percentage of
households headed by women, now estimated at 11%, will increase to 15%, 20% and
25% by the end of each of the next three decades.

COMMENTS: According to CIA World Factbook 2010, the estimated urbanization rating
of the Philippines for the year 2005 to 2010 is about 65 in a scale of 100. This rating
ranked 33th, tied with that of New Caledonia and Algeria. The country also scored a
rating of 3.0, which placed us in the 24th slot with Sao Tome and Principe, Pakistan,
Malaysia and Mauritania. This rating is only for the year 2008.
According to CIA World Factbook, the estimate of the US Bureau of Census on
the Philippines' population by the year 2010 is almost 100,000,000. For the past 8
years, the country fared 12th on the world ranking. From the year 2004 to year 2010,
the mean percent change in population from last year is 2.41%. However, a decrease in
this rate can be seen starting from the year 2008.
The presence of female headship in the Philippines is more of an urban
phenomenon (Morada, H. et al.). Morada presented several findings regarding the
major differences between households headed by males or females (which can be
accessed through http://www.bles.dole.gov.ph).

On Nation Building, Cultural Communities and Regional Autonomy [page 35]

Ѿ Over the longer haul, however, regional autonomy and peace in these areas
(Mindanao and the Cordilleras) will falter for lack of stronger cultural and political
underpinnings.
Ѿ The ancestral lands will continue to rankle, and there is no satisfactory resolution in
view.
Ѿ … these “regional” problems, as long as they remain unsolved, will be a big drag on
the progress of the peace process nationally...
Ѿ The national language issue, in particular, will eventually be resolved if the
government does not push its resolution too fast and too hard... It will be a moot
question by the end of the third decade (2029).
Ѿ Cultural communities will become more militant and assertive, and this will help
preserve cultural diversity...
Ѿ The next decade will be one of cultural ferment, while the second one will see a
flowering of indigenous cultures.

COMMENTS: By the 1990s, Philippine nationalism had not fully penetrated two regions
of the country inhabited by national minorities: the Muslim parts of Mindanao and the
tribal highlands of northern Luzon (accessed from http://www.photius.com/countries/
philippines/government/philippines_government_regional_autonomy.html). Presently,
regions have been assigned to these places as Cordillera Administrative Region and
Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao.
The problems surrounding indigenous peoples and access to land in the
Philippines ultimately derive from the following historical circumstance; since the early
Spanish colonial period, all forest lands have legally belonged to the state, and most
indigenous peoples have long inhabited the forest (accessed from Cultural Survival,
Inc.). Accordingly, the current emphasis on ancestral domains rather than ancestral
lands reminds us that more is at stake than simply the need of indigenous people to
make a current agricultural living. This was seen in the proposals of some Muslim
leaders on the so-called Bangsamoro State. The emphasis on ancestral domains
reflects recognition of and concern about the effects of armed conflict in the Philippines
on indigenous peoples, two of which are the New Peoples Army (NPA) and Moro-
Islamic Liberation Front (MILF).
In spite of being the national language, only about 55 percent of Filipinos speak
the language (accessed from http://www.asianinfo.org). From the same source, the
Philippines is the third largest group of English speaking people in the world, after the
United States and the United Kingdom.

On National Culture, Literature and the Arts [page 37 to 38]

Ѿ During the next ten years, the Filipinization of national culture will accelerate...
Ѿ … many more middle-class Filipinos will be using Filipino than English...
Ѿ … cultural progress will mean an unburdening of the legacies of colonialism...
Ѿ During the next three decades, literature will move up one notch every decade.
Ѿ During the second decade, … the arts and letters, as well as indigenous cultures will
bloom... We will be more widely read at home and abroad...

COMMENTS: Acceleration in our culture is supported by fresh leadership in the mass

media, education and publishing (Abueva et al.). According to Philippine Census
(2000), an estimated 22,000,000 speak this national language natively.
Cultural progress will only happen if we will be able to break away from the
chains of the colonial periods of our history. They should also be viewed as momentary
distractions from our nation-building process (Abueva et al.). Literature will move up
one notch in the Self-Anchoring Scale (in Ang Aklat sa Kinabukasan: Ang Pilipinas
Tungo sa Ika-21 Dantaon). This is due to the combined efforts DECS (now DepEd) and
the pioneers in this field. Arts and letters, and indigenous cultures will proliferate due to
various support for our national language, like writing textbooks in our own language
and translating classics. Abueva et al. (1998) even ended with “...we may even win a
Nobel Prize...”.
On Science and Technology [page 40 to 41]
Ѿ Science and technology performance in terms of science research and publications
is likely to follow … [a decelerating and stagnating development] unless prevailing
conditions or practices change.

COMMENTS: Sustained, progressive development will likely result from (1) laws like
the “Science and Technology Act”, (2) creation of the Commission on Higher Education
(CHED), and (3) provision of funding for IT infrastructure in schools and colleges, plus
S&T faculty development (Abueva et al.).
Decelerating and stagnating development will happen under the following
conditions (according to The Book on the Future: The Philippines Into the 21st Century),
(1) investments, fund allocations and incentives are not improved, and (2) no policy
changes has been made regarding S&T.
According to Abueva et al. (1998) deterioration and decay is likely to happen if
(1) DOST is abolished, and (2) UP stops to offer undergraduate degrees, and focusing
on graduate programs. All these proposals have not been enacted up to this date.

On Nutrition and Food Security [page 42 to 43]

Ѿ Future prospects are bleak unless we make significant changes in our appreciation
of the nutrition situation in the country and all that it takes to deal with it.
Ѿ We may make progress with undernutrition by 2009, but by 2019 and 2025, there
will be more nutrition problems related to affluence and lifestyle...

COMMENTS: Protein-energy malnutrition (PEM) and micronutrient deficiencies remain

the leading nutritional problems in the Philippines. The general declining trend in the
prevalence of underweight, wasting and stunting among Filipino children noted in the
past 10 years was countered with the increase in the prevalence rate in 1998 (accessed
from http://www.fao.org).
According to the same source (2010), overweight and obesity are also prevalent
in the country affecting a significant proportion of children, adolescents and adults,
which predispose them to certain nutrition and health risks. This is evident in the rising
trend in the prevalence of diseases of the heart and the vascular system.

On Health Conditions and Health Care [page 45]

Ѿ … the prospects for health during the next three decades are not very bright. The
country's National Plan for Health (1995-2020) itself has negative expectations... These
trends may be attributed to several factors.

COMMENTS: A proposal has been made for 25 years, starting from the year 1995 to
year 2020. This is the “National Plan for Health”, which has its own negative
expectations:
According to Abueva et al. (1998), in the first decade, deterioration in health
conditions will be felt by the country through high morbidity and mortality rates, and
other factors. Likewise, in the second decade, more newer health problems will be
added to the old ones. This was seen in the emergence of the SARS and A(H1N1)
virus. However, they said that in the third decade, rise in use of more modern medical
care technology will cause the influx of ethical, moral and legal health issues and
concerns. Also, this will escalate costs of health care, which in turn threatens the
accessibility and availability of health care to more people.

On Education Needs [page 48 to 49]

Ѿ … we can foresee the education needs of all sectors being met, with progressive
graduation to higher and higher levels of competency.

COMMENTS: In August 2001, Republic Act 9155, otherwise called the Governance of
Basic Education Act, was passed transforming the name of the Department of
Education, Culture and Sports (DECS) to the Department of Education (DepEd). The
goal of basic education is to provide the school age population and young adults with
skills, knowledge, and values to become caring, self-reliant, productive and patriotic
citizens (accessed from http://www.deped.gov.ph). This trifocalization of the educational
system in the Philippines, together with TESDA and CHED, helps in meeting the
demands for education of each sector. This also enhances competency as the control
over schools are decentralized; thus, allowing greater control over a smaller number of
institutions.
Abueva et al. (1998) saw that in the first decade, loss of human resources due to
export of labor will cause decelerating and stagnating development while increases in
quality education and accessibility will cause sustained, progressive development. In
the second decade, deceleration and stagnation will continue if education will be limited
to the elites and deterioration and decay is more likely to happen if educational services
will be continually privatized. In the third decade, trends will still be the same and
human resources will be staying at home.

On Philippine Human Development [page 51]

Ѿ … a “massive orientation” of local executives on MBN (minimum basic needs) and
extensive barangay-level use of its information system are expected to take place
during the first decade ahead. During the second decade, more PO's (people's
organizations), NGO's (Non-goverment organizations) and local executives will adopt
the approach and installation of its information system will increase from 50% to 75% of
the barangays.

General Scenario for Social and Cultural Development [chapter 4]

Ѿ Things will get worse before they get better.

COMMENTS: In the concluding words of Abueva et al. (1998) in the fourth chapter of
their book, these projections must be correlated with the economical and political
development of the nation as these three are interrelated concepts.
The line above is a strong projection about the trend that will happen in any
aspect of social, cultural, economical and political development of the Philippines. The
last line of this chapter read, “... Filipinos are resilient and things will eventually get
better.” I firmly believe in this statement as Filipinos has been hit by many crises, but
here they are, strong and firm to face the world's next challenges on their great race!