Año Bimestre Demanda SES (0,1) alfa 0.

1
114.0 350
1 114 114.0
2 180 120.6 300
3 167 125.2
250
4 215 134.2
5 232 144.0
200
2004 6 222 151.8
1 167 153.3 150
2 207 158.7
3 198 162.6 100
4 212 167.6
5 290 179.8 50
2005 6 245 186.3
0
1 220 189.7
0 2 4 6 8 10
2 197 190.4
3 223 193.7
4 290 203.3
5 321 215.1
2006 6 310 224.6
1 224.6
2
3
4
5
2007 6
 Column D
ses

4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
 t DT RL St Gt Ft
0 19.00 2.73 Char
1 23 21.73 21.98 2.75 21.73 60
2 24 24.45 24.59 2.74 24.73
50
3 27 27.18 27.26 2.73 27.33
f(x) = 2.72727272727273 x + 19
4 30 29.91 29.99 2.73 29.99 40
5 31 32.64 32.38 2.70 32.73
30
6 38 35.36 35.66 2.76 35.08
7 35 38.09 37.73 2.69 38.42 20
8 41 40.82 40.54 2.70 40.42
10
9 43 43.55 43.19 2.69 43.24
10 48 46.27 46.31 2.74 45.88 0
0 2 4
1 11 49.00 49.04
2 12 51.73 51.78 Regresion
3 13 54.45 54.52
4 14 57.18 57.25
5 15 59.91 59.99 SED
6 16 62.64 62.73
7 17 65.36 65.46
 Chart Title

x) = 2.72727272727273 x + 19

2 4 6 8 10 12

pend(m) 2.73
inter(b) 19.00

Alfa 0.2
Beta 0.1
t Dt Ft - 1 Ft - 2 Et - 1 Et - 2 /Et/ - 1 /Et/ - 2 Et^2 - 1 Et^2 - 2 /Et/ - 1 /Et/ - 2
1 28 32 32 4 4 4 4 16 16 0.14 0.14
2 21 20 21 -1 0 1 0 1 0 0.05 0.00
3 28 26 22 -2 -6 2 6 4 36 0.07 0.21
4 22 19 17 -3 -5 3 5 9 25 0.14 0.23
5 31 32 28 1 -3 1 3 1 9 0.03 0.10
6 26 24 26 -2 0 2 0 4 0 0.08 0.00
7 35 39 40 4 5 4 5 16 25 0.11 0.14
8 28 26 27 -2 -1 2 1 4 1 0.07 0.04
9 21 21 22 0 1 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.05

ME1 -0.11
ME2 -0.56
MAD1 2.11
MAD2 2.78
MSE 1 6.11
MSE 2 12.56
MAPE 1 0.08
MAPE 2 0.10
Desv 1 2.64
Desvi 2 3.47
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