Fourth Revolution Manifesto Part3 - How The Collective Cognitive Capability of Humankind Is Again Transformed

Jeremie Averous
The Fourth
Revolution
Manifesto
- Part III -
How the collective
cognitive capability of
humankind is again
transformed
Version 1 – Dec 2010 © Jeremie Averous, 2010
The Fourth Revolution is a
one-in-a-century’s opportunity.
What about becoming part of the new elite?
A Revolution is an opportunity: to become a member of Jérémie Avérous is a senior executive, trainer,
the new social elite. This manifesto contains invaluable certified coach. He likes to describe himself as a
advice and direction as to the behaviors and skills to
K.E.E.N, a Knowledge Enhancer Exchanging
succeed and thrive through the world’s transformation.
Networker, the typical member of the new
The Fourth Revolution is one of the few moments in international nomadic community.
humankind history where our world understanding and
our society are completely redefined.
The Fourth Revolution has already ignited.
The manifesto explains the deep causes of the current
changes of the world. What can we do to grasp the
opportunity and build the world we want ?
Contribute to build our world

Connect and participate on
www.thefourthrevolution.org
The Fourth Revolution manifesto
© Jeremie Averous, 2010 2
The Fourth Revolution Manifesto
Reference
To make it easier for online consultation and download, the
Fourth Revolution Manifesto has been split in 8 parts
Part I A short history of humankind – 100,000 years in 3 Revolutions
Part II Cheap long distance interactive communication is new and transforms our collective
cognitive capability
Part III The Collaborative Age value system: how the collective cognitive capability of
humankind is again transformed
Part IV Four precursors of the Fourth Revolution – events and discoveries at odds with the
Industrial Age model in the 20th century
Part V The Organization Revolution: from efficiency- management to effectiveness-
leadership
Part VI Four institutions that will be deeply transformed
Part VII Four keys to success in the Collaborative Age: new insights, practices and skills
Part VIII Your Choice. And why YOU are important for the Fourth Revolution.
The Fourth Revolution manifesto - part III

© Jeremie Averous, 2010 Visit www.thefourthrevolution.org 3
The Fourth Revolution Manifesto
Part III - Contents
Part III- How the collective cognitive capability of

humankind is again transformed Page
Introduction – what is collective cognitive capability 5

The new collective cognitive capabilities of humankind – an
illustrated demonstration 10
How new technologies allow contribution from Humankind in its
entirety 30
The revolutionary value production system of the Collaborative
Age that we don’t know yet how to measure 35
Conclusion – towards the Fourth Revolution 44

Introduction
What is collective
cognitive capability?
© Jeremie Averous, 2010

What is collective cognitive capability?
‘Cognitive’ comes from a latin root meaning ‘to

know’, ‘to conceptualize’ or ‘to recognize’. It
refers to a faculty for the processing
of information, applying knowledge, and
changing preferences. It is about information
processing and developing concepts.
Individual cognitive capability is our own

capabilities to process the information we
receive.
Collective cognitive capability is the capability of a

group to process the information available.

Collective cognitive capability is much higher

than the sum of individual cognitive
capabilities.
This is proven on a daily basis by examples from

nature
Its effectiveness depends on three parameters

– The density and quality of collaboration
– The available information
– The diversity of the group

Collective cognitive capability is related to creativity, creating new ideas,

concepts, objects.
The TED video of Matt Ridley ‘the ideas have sex’ show the dramatic
importance of communication and diversity for creativity
See Matt Ridley’s video here

How does collective cognitive capability
change?
Because collective cognitive capability depends on the
quality of collaboration, group diversity and
availability of information, any technology that
increases significantly the quality and range of
communication both in terms of group size, and
in time and space does change cognitive
capability.
Dramatic improvements of our collective cognitive

capability were brought by speaking, writing and
broadcasting, the first 3 Revolutions.
What about the new power of

cheap long distance interactive
communication?
The new
collective
cognitive
capability of
humankind
An illustrated
demonstration

How the collective cognitive capability is
transformed
The collective cognitive capability depends on the
quality of the collaboration, the availability of
data and the diversity of the group.
The following pages show how in the past 20 years,

the availability of information and data has
exploded, and how the availability of cheap
communication tools mobilizes the entire
humankind (the most diverse possible group) to
contribute collaboratively,…
… creating unprecedented
value.
transformed
The total published A container ship

data (original data) Full of DVD’s
9 containers EASILY SEARCHEABLE
has exploded in the Full of DVD’s
last 20 years
500 DVD’s
50 DVD’s
12 DVD’s
By 0AD By 1450 By 1800

By 1990
Internet 2010
transformed
In terms of easily A container ship

Full of DVD’s
accessible data by an EASILY SEARCHEABLE
individual (original data), it
is even more dramatic
50 DVD’s
20 DVD’s
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Alexandria Middle Age Public library Home

library monastery End 19th century 1970’s Internet 2010

transformed
Published data
(byte)
(log scale)
Data published during the life of a person
(average per living person)
1 billion
The contribution to the

1 million world of each individual
literally explodes
1,000
1 years
10,000 BC 0 1450 AD 1800 AD 2000 AD

transformed
10%
% of the world population publishing to
the world
The proportion of
humankind
5%
contributing actively
increases dramatically
0% years
10,000 BC 0 1450 AD 1800 AD 2000 AD

transformed
So… how does that work?
What is the practical effect of unprecedented data availability, contribution

to the world, and long distance collaboration?
The effect is the now well known
‘power of the long tail’
A concept popularized by Chris Anderson in a book ‘the long tail’

The power of the long tail:
from broadcasting to collaboration
Popularity
Zipf ’s law –
popularity for
anything is like 1/x
This is applicable to any situation of
social preferences (websites, books, etc).
It is also related to the well known 80/20
principle (some issues are much more
important than others)

Popularity
In a broadcasting world, only
those works that are popular
enough get published
This is because of the relatively high cost
of broadcasting (even if each copy has a
small cost by itself).
It is not economically justified to
broadcast low popularity works
Area of
profitable
broadcasting

Popularity
As a result a large part of the

possible contribution of people
does not get communicated to
the world
Area of
profitable Area of non –profitable
Broadcasting broadcasting
(large,
but finite)

Popularity
Today the cost of publishing has gone to

zero. A new area of publishing appears
Today,
for the first time,
anybody can share anything on anything
Area of
profitable
broadcasting

Popularity
The catch is… the yellow area under the

curve is infinite.
For the first time in history we

can mobilize a far g reater
collaborative contribution than
ever before
Area of
profitable
broadcasting

So… how does that work?
Let’s look at a practical example of the power of the long tail:
The
Encyclopedia
story

Encyclopedia story
Encyclopedia, a reference work for knowledge, have been around since

the invention of writing. But they have been systematized and
broadened during the Broadcasting Revolution, being one of the
contributors of the spread of the Industrial Revolution.
Encyclopedia were massive undertakings mobilizing an institution of
editors and knowledgeable contributors.

Encyclopedia story
In the broadcasting era, the cost of

creating an edition of an
encyclopedia was huge. Only a
few encyclopedia editions were
published and encyclopedia
salespeople were highly trained to
achieve enough sales.
The last edition of the

Encyclopedia
Britannica contained
44 million words
…and could fit on a DVD

Encyclopedia story
In 1999 a project was kicked off to

create a free reference
encyclopedia on the internet.
This encyclopedia would be produced

according to the same processes
and rules than conventional
encyclopedia: highly
knowledgeable contributors,
select review and editing
committee.
It was a failure.
Only 12 articles produced in 1 year
Encyclopedia story
In January 2001 the Nupedia founders

decided to run an experiment on
the internet: allow everybody to
contribute to the encyclopedia.
Wikipedia was born.
Amateurs would write, no review by

experts, just ability for everybody
to modify.
It was an instant success.

20,000 articles produced in 1 year
Encyclopedia story
Today Wikipedia has more than

1,000 million words.
50 x the latest best

conventional
encyclopedia… and
growing
Its accuracy has been scientifically

assessed. It is as good as the old
Encyclopedia Britannica.

Encyclopedia story:
The power of the long tail at work
The graph explains everything. It is

extracted from actual Wikipedia
statistics.
The colors represent the contributors,
categorized by the number of
their contributions.
90% of contributors will do less than

10 contributions.
Yet they represent a significant chunk

of the overall content.
The long tail is at work.

Collaboration enhances the collective
cognitive capability of humankind
When do YOU start contributing?

The new
collective
cognitive
capability of
humankind
How new technologies
allow contribution
from Humankind in its
entirety
How Humankind contributes in its
entirety
In the previous section we have observed how the ‘power of the long tail’
and the contribution of far more people redefine the way we create.
In this section we concentrate on a particular phenomenon of wide

consequences.
The new availability of cheap ubiquitous long distance interactive

communication tools brings in the loop a vast set of people that were
excluded before from the collective community of possible
contributors.
Today, all of Humankind can contribute.

Even developing countries and poor people.
Modern interactive tools at work
in poor countries
I have no toilet,
I have no bed
But I have a cellphone…

Modern interactive tools at work
in poor countries
And I have access to internet…

How Humankind contributes in its
entirety: story of a picture
The story of the cover pictures of this manifesto and of
my future book illustrates the fact that we are all
interconnected – beyond previous boundaries
between poor and rich countries.
I found this image by chance on the internet. I googled

5 minutes to find the name of the photographer –
Alim Boeana, a young and talented Indonesian
photographer. I finally managed to contact him
through Facebook to buy some high definition
pictures, which I paid with Paypal. The pictures
were sent by email.
None of this would have been possible 5 years ago, in

particular for a photographer in a developing
country.
The new value
production
system of the
Collaborative
Age
A revolutionary value
production system that
we don’t know yet how
to measure
The collaborative value paradox
Google, LinkedIn, Facebook, Twitter, Wikipedia…
Create tremendous value for a large number of people

… but only reap a very small part of that value in terms of ‘profit’
– Google: indirect revenue – advertisment

– LinkedIn: freemium model for HR & companies
– Facebook & Twitter still struggling to define their model
– Wikipedia: a foundation requesting donations
So, what is the value of a collaborative system?

And how can it be measured?
In a broadcasting system, the value

of the network is proportional to
the number of users (Sarnoff ’s law)
Examples: publishing, radio, TV
Value= 9
In a point-to point
telecommunications network, the
value of the network increases like
the square of participants
(Metcalfe’s law)
Examples: phone, fax networks
Value= 45
In a social network which can link

any number of participants in a
virtual conversation, the value of
the network increases like an
exponential (Reed’s law)
Examples: virtual social networks
Value= 1013
The intrinsic value

of a collaborative
network
increases
exponentially
with the number
of nodes.
What about the

internet?!?

Still, we can’t measure the value we are creating today by conventional value
measurement systems. Then… is the way we measure value appropriate?
Let’s remember that

Conventional accounting
is an invention
of the Industrial Age

We need to solve the paradox that tremendous value is generated today by social
networking tools and wikis. But that does not translate immediately in value
in the Industrial Age sense: MONEY.
The solution is simple in concept but complicated in implementation. We need

to overcome our Industrial Age value measurement system – money and
tangible items only, to build a new value measurement system.
Only this new value measurement system will show that the value generated
today by social network tools is orders of magnitude larger than ever before.
Creativity accelerates. Our joint cognitive abilities create solutions to the
most impossible problems.

Measuring the value of collaboration:
the next challenge!
Long tail
Different worldviews meet unexpectedly
Rupture innovation
Contributions
Connexions
Disruptive concepts
Creativity - ideas have sex
Conclusion
Towards the Fourth

Revolution
It it not only inevitable,

it has already ignited

The Fourth Revolution is inevitable
Today, a new technology is available:
Cheap, ubiquitous long

distance interactive
communication
This leads to a transformation

of our collective cognitive
capabilities
Times person of
the year 2006
YOU.

The Fourth Revolution is inevitable
In part IV of the Manifesto we will observe that

events are already occurring that show that a
deep transformation is at hand
The Fourth Revolution is not only inevitable, it has

already ignited.
Read part IV of the Manifesto:

Four precursors of the Fourth Revolution
– events and discoveries at odds with the Industrial Age
model in the 20th century
To be
continued…
Read part IV-

Four precursors of the
Fourth Revolution

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Jeremie Averous

Contribute to build our world

The Fourth Revolution manifesto - part III

Part III- How the collective cognitive capability of

Introduction – what is collective cognitive capability 5

Conclusion – towards the Fourth Revolution 44

The Fourth Revolution manifesto - part III

© Jeremie Averous, 2010

‘Cognitive’ comes from a latin root meaning ‘to

Individual cognitive capability is our own

Collective cognitive capability is the capability of a

The Fourth Revolution manifesto - part III

Collective cognitive capability is much higher

This is proven on a daily basis by examples from

Its effectiveness depends on three parameters

The Fourth Revolution manifesto - part III

Collective cognitive capability is related to creativity, creating new ideas,

See Matt Ridley’s video here

The Fourth Revolution manifesto - part III

Dramatic improvements of our collective cognitive

What about the new power of

© Jeremie Averous, 2010

The following pages show how in the past 20 years,

The total published A container ship

By 0AD By 1450 By 1800

In terms of easily A container ship

Alexandria Middle Age Public library Home

The Fourth Revolution manifesto - part III

The contribution to the

The Fourth Revolution manifesto - part III

The Fourth Revolution manifesto - part III

What is the practical effect of unprecedented data availability, contribution

The effect is the now well known

‘power of the long tail’

A concept popularized by Chris Anderson in a book ‘the long tail’

The Fourth Revolution manifesto - part III

The Fourth Revolution manifesto - part III

The Fourth Revolution manifesto - part III

As a result a large part of the

The Fourth Revolution manifesto - part III

Today the cost of publishing has gone to

The Fourth Revolution manifesto - part III

The catch is… the yellow area under the

For the first time in history we

The Fourth Revolution manifesto - part III

Let’s look at a practical example of the power of the long tail:

The Fourth Revolution manifesto - part III

Encyclopedia, a reference work for knowledge, have been around since

The Fourth Revolution manifesto - part III

In the broadcasting era, the cost of

The last edition of the

The Fourth Revolution manifesto - part III

In 1999 a project was kicked off to

This encyclopedia would be produced

In January 2001 the Nupedia founders

Wikipedia was born.

Amateurs would write, no review by

It was an instant success.

Today Wikipedia has more than

50 x the latest best

Its accuracy has been scientifically

The Fourth Revolution manifesto - part III

The graph explains everything. It is