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Climate Change
By Dr. A. Neil Hutton
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www.cspg.org
Climate Change
Contents
Climate Change was originally published as a ten-part series in the Canadian Society
of Petroleum Geologists’ monthly magazine, The Reservoir, between January and
November 2009.
The CSPG thanks Dr. Neil Hutton for his work in making this series possible.
cover designed from images of the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio
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CL IMA
CLIMA TE CHANG
IMATE CHANGEE I:
Global Warming Debate
by Dr. A. Neil Hutton
A while ago, it came to my attention that however warming, in itself, does not prove proxy values with depth. The burial pressure
APEGGA was undertaking a survey of the hypothesis of global warming as a result range of the ice cores is from 5 bars to 15
Members’ views on the subject of Climate of the release of carbon dioxide in the bars or 5-15 atmospheres, a maximum of
Change. In reviewing responses to other atmosphere. Nevertheless, the manmade, or about 220 psi. It appears that decompression
surveys, such as those generated by AAPG, it “Anthropogenic , Global Warming, results in CO2 depletion. Nevertheless, this
was evident that the responders ranged over Hypothesis” has been widely accepted by the rather invariant proxy data was
an entire spectrum of opinion. Many appeared media and the public. Global warming studies inappropriately linked to observational data
not to be fully conversant with the range of have become big business. Indeed, it has from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii.
current, related research or were relying attained near religious status among the The result is a flat historic graph melded
only on the uncritical reporting by the media. green lobby, resulting in unwarranted with the modern data scaled to provide a
On the whole, the media have done a personal attacks on some scientists’ dramatic right angle and near vertical climb
remarkably poor job in reporting on global credibility and integrity and attempts to place in modern CO2 values.
warming. Typically, the reports have been a them in the same category as holocaust
simple regurgitation of the spin produced by deniers. The objectivity and impartiality of The curve is visually dramatic but conceals
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate peer review has been compromised while an unacknowledged change of age. The
Change (IPCC). research funding becomes more difficult to youngest proxy from the Siple Ice Core is
obtain for those expressing critical views. 1890 with a value of 328 ppmv but the entire
The use of the term “spin” may seem an data set was arbitrarily moved to fit Mauna
unusual way in which to characterize At this point I will quote a comment by Loa data for 1973. This appears to have been
objective scientific reports. However the meteorologist Piers Corbyn in the Weather done to conceal an inconveniently high pre-
IPCC Summary for Policymakers (SPM), Action Bulletin, December, 2000: “The industrial value for CO2 of 328 ppmv.
where the media generally obtain their problem we are faced with is that the
information, does not always reflect the meteorological establishment and the global 2 Human activities have warmed the
opinions in the scientific report and in some warming lobby research bodies which climate since 1750.
instances actually contradicts the conclusions receive large funding are now apparently so
of the scientists. For example, the IPCC corrupted by the largesse they receive that This is an unwarranted assertion which is
Summary for Policy makers, (IPCC 2001b, p. the scientists in them have sold their not supported by facts.
10) states that “there is new and stronger integrity.” It is worth mentioning here that
evidence that most of the warming observed even under President George Bush, the 3. The warmth of the last half-century is
in the last 50 years is attributable to human United States has spent $29 billion on climate unusual. It is the highest in at least the
activities”. Although in the scientific report research in the last six years. This is more past 1,300 years, and is “very likely”
itself, (IPCC 2001a, Chapter 1, p. 97) the than double what was spent on the Apollo caused by increases in anthropogenic
conclusion is quite different: “The fact that Space Program. greenhouse gases.
the global mean temperature has increased
since the late 19th Century and that other The SPM of the IPCC Fourth Assessment This assertion is based on the infamous Mann
trends have been observed does not Report made four basic points, none of which hockey stick graph, which has been shown
necessarily mean that an anthropogenic effect can be supported scientifically. In order to to be totally invalid in a number of scientific
on the climate system has been identified. support their arguments, there has been a papers and by the Wegman Commission of
Climate has always varied on all time scales, pattern of data manipulation in a highly the United States Congress. Not withstanding
so the observed change may be natural.” unscientific attempt to confirm the the scathing criticism of this work by many
anthropogenic (man-made) warming theory. authors, it continues in widespread use by
In an extraordinary move last spring the IPCC the IPCC with minor modification in the 2007
released the 21-page SPM for the Fourth The four cornerstones of the of the IPCC report. The IPCC has been shown to have
Assessment Report (2007) more than three global warming hypothesis are: violated its own rules in its 2007 attempt to
months ahead of the 1,600-page scientific rebut criticisms of the “hockey stick”. All
report. This was to ensure that the scientific 1. Carbon Dioxide, the most important this to evade acknowledging worldwide
report was consistent with the SPM. In other anthropogenic greenhouse gas, evidence of the Little Ice Age, the Medieval
words the science was not to conflict with increased markedly as a result of human Warm Period, and the Roman Warm Period.
the politics! activities, and its atmospheric Both of the latter periods of warming had
concentration of 379 ppmv (parts per temperatures greater than our present
The general public and the media, apparently, million by volume) in 2005 far exceeded warming. This was brilliantly documented by
are quite unaware of these contradictions the natural range of 180 to 300 ppmv H.H. Lamb in the late 1960s but, as is
and are much taken up with the emotional over the last 650,000 years. characteristic of IPCC, inconvenient evidence
aspects of the reports of melting arctic ice, is simply ignored, manipulated, or evaded.
glaciers, and the snows of Kilimanjaro, as This conclusion is based entirely on proxy
well as many other weather catastrophes ice core data from Antarctica with 4. Predictions are made that
appearing in the press. In the northern monotonously low CO 2 proxy values. The anthropogenic warming will continue
hemisphere there has been warming; most striking relationship is the drop in CO2 for centuries, and that by the end of the
3
21st century the global surface REFERENCES::
temperature will increase 1.1 to 6.4 ºC. IPCC. 2001. Climate Change – The IPCC Scientific
Various global catastrophes are Assessment. Cambridge University Press,
prophesied as a result of warming if Cambridge.
manmade emissions are not curbed by
drastic political and economic decisions. IPCC. 2007. Climate Change:The Physical Science
Basis , Summar y for Polic ymaker s . Four th
The obvious beneficial effects of warming Assessment Report, Intergovernmental Panel on
for both man and the entire biosphere are Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland.
discounted. This is a curious omission when
discussing a complex society living in what Jaworowski, Z. 2007. The Greatest Scientific
may be the last portion of an interglacial Scandal of Our Time, EIR Science, March, 2007.
warm period. Cooling will initiate far more p. 38-53.
serious hazards to our civilization as anyone,
who has considered the effects of minor Lamb, H. H. 1965. The Early Medieval Warm
cooling during the Little Ice Age, would know. Epoch and its Sequel. Palaeogeography,
Glacial onset would result in the loss of Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology. p. 13-37
major northern croplands, including the
breadbasket of the northern hemisphere, and
eventually Canada would exist (once again)
only as an ice-sheet.
4
CL IMA
CLIMA TE CHANG
IMATE CHANGE E II:
The World’s Historic Climate
by Dr. A. Neil Hutton
This figure was based on Lamb’s pioneering Figure 2.1. This figure was published without attribution by the IPCC in their 1990 report as figure 7c, but it
work and quite clearly shows medieval is clear that it was based on the work of Lamb 1965 (see McIntyre, 2008 Climate Audit May 9th 2008).
temperatures higher than our present
maxima during 1998, thus denying the claim Lamb used a variety of indicators to develop demonstrated distinct climatic variability with
that the warming of the 20th Century was a temperature profile, such as economic the Medieval Warm Period warmer than our
greater than at any time in the last values of produce, winter severity recorded 20th Century Warm Period and separated
millennium. So what scientific evidence did in historical records, agricultural from it by the Little Ice Age. During the Little
Lamb have to actually provide an estimate of productivity, changes in crop type , Ice Age, the River Thames froze 40 times,
temperature? Lamb has documented that distribution, and other factors as discussed. with the greatest frequency occurring during
there was a commercial wine-making Lamb produced a brilliantly detailed account the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries as
industry in the South of England between of European and north Atlantic climate that shown in Figure 2.2. This was no skim of ice
1100 to about 1300 that was competitive
with producers in France. This represents a
northward latitude shift of 500 km from the
current grape-growing areas of France and
Germany, indicating average temperatures
1.0 ºC warmer than in the past decades. In
Germany, during this warm period, vineyards
were found at higher elevations, about 780
meters above sea level. Today the maximum
elevation is about 560 m. Assuming a
temperature gradient of 0.6-0.7 ºC per 100
meters, then the average mean temperature
then was 1.0-1.4 ºC warmer than our 20th
and 21st Century maxima. This is quantifiable
information since we know the climatic
requirements for viniculture.
5
on the surface of the river but was sufficient these publications cite the average dramatically up to 1980 – is primarily an
to support the hauliers and their teams of temperature of the MWP as up to 1ºC artifact of poor data handling, obsolete data,
horses and wagons who preferred to cross warmer than the present warm period. An and incorrect calculation of principal
directly rather than use the bridges. A team excellent citation index is available from CO2 components.”
of horses with loaded wagon is in excess of Science which is available at www.
five tons. Accounts indicate that it was so co2science.org for both the MWP and LIA. Nevertheless, IPCC continued to use this
cold that fish became trapped in pools and diagram in their literature while in the US
were frozen into the ice. The citizens of Notwithstanding this body of evidence, in National Assessment (2000) the diagram lost
London abandoned the city for the pubs and 2001 the IPCC in their Third Assessment its error bars and was promoted from a
entertainment on the ice in the legendary Report (TAR-2001) published a diagram Northern Hemisphere indicator to Global
Frost Fairs which are delightfully described purporting to represent Global Surface stature. The National Academy of Sciences
in Helen Humphrey’s book “The Frozen temperature for the last millennium (Figure (NAS 2006) also used the Mann hockey stick,
Thames”. During this period sea ice was 2.3) based on tree-ring data. The diagram notwithstanding the damning criticism of
reported impeding coastal traffic and, in 1684- shows a flat and slightly cooling linear trend McIntyre and McKitrick. The spin continued
1685, the English Channel was ice-covered until 1900 when, in a brilliant visual stroke, until the Energy and Commerce Committee
from Dover to Calais. At the same period, Mann compared his apples to oranges by of the United States Congress requested an
Iceland was totally surrounded by sea ice as grafting on the actual surface temperature independent review. This resulted in the
far as the eye could see from the highest record for the 20th Century, “the blade”, on establishment of the Wegman committee
mountains. Similarly, the freezing of the Baltic to the nine centuries of proxy tree-ring data, (2006), an independent group of scientists
was such that people traveled by sleigh from “the handle”. This has since been derisively with statistical expertise working pro bono.
Sweden to Poland. These events which are named the “Mann Hockey Stick” and became They concluded decisively that the statements
extensively reported in historical documents the clarion call of the IPCC and the green of Mann, Bradley, and Hughes (1998), which
have been criticized as being anecdotal and lobby claiming that 1990 was the hottest indicated that the 1990s was the hottest
not providing an accurate measure of decade and 1998 the hottest year of the decade in a millennium and that 1998 was
temperature variation and without global millennium. This scientific travesty was the hottest year of the millennium cannot be
significance. However they appear to provide published in a peer-reviewed journal, yet supported. Although the “hockey stick” was
a better evaluation of historic climate than none of the obvious problems were dropped from the IPCC Fourth Assessment
tree rings. questioned until a publication by McIntyre in 2007, the authors simply ignored the well
and McKitrick in 2003. Only by great documented historical data demonstrating
Since the documentation of the Little Ice Age, persistence and perseverance did they obtain several cycles of warming and cooling (Figure
(LIA) and the Medieval Warm Period, (MWP) the data. Their conclusion: “the particular 2.1), to save the embarrassment of a nearly
was dropped by the IPCC in 2001, there has “hockey stick” shape derived in the Mann, flat-line proxy CO2 curve from ice core data
been an avalanche of papers from around Bradley, and Hughes (1998) proxy covering the same period. Either the CO2
the world documenting the occurrence of construction – a temperature index that proxies are wrong or CO2 is not a significant
the MWP and the LIA. There are some 500 decreases slightly between the early 15th driver of the earth’s climate. In reality, this
citations from around the world. Repeatedly century and early 20th century and increases can only be seen as a deliberate evasion of
the fact that climate variability has occurred
for millennia with temperature fluctuations
of similar magnitude to those occurring at
present.
6
suggests that the peer-review process failed to fully vet papers
before they were published. In turn, the peer-review process
may result in censorship where the views expressed are contrary
to the views or the agenda of the clique. Mann, Bradley, and
Hughes presented what the climatological community wanted to
hear and so they ignored all previously published data on climate
variability.
The last three decades of the 20th century have been a period of
vigorous economic growth and construction and expansion
coinciding with the growth in the global average temperature
(McKitrick and Michaels, 2007). Meanwhile, the geographic
distribution and sampling has deteriorated over time, especially
since the 1970s. Ideally, coverage should provide some 2,592 grid
boxes at five degrees of latitude and longitude but with the decline
in stations the coverage has dropped from 1,200 to 600 stations
– a decline in grid station coverage from 46 to 23%! The majority
of the remaining stations tend to be located in more populated
areas. Nevertheless, the IPCC claims that their global average
surface temperature has been deurbanized, but they have declined
to release the data or methodology so that it can be independently
verified. Dr. Jones of the Climate Research Unit (CRU) at the
University of East Anglia famously responded to a request for the Figure 2.5. Average annual air temperatures at 93 California climate stations from
basic data and methodology with, “Why should I make the data 1947 to 1993 stratified by 1990 county population: over 1 million (top); between 1
available to you, when your aim is to find something wrong with million and 100,000 (middle); and less than 100,000 (bottom). Source: Goodridge,
it.” This does not suggest that the CRU have high confidence in 1996.
7
their work or of their contribution to the compatibility of the MSU data has been average surface temperature and CO 2
IPCC. This also confirms Stephen McIntyre’s validated independently by measurements content can only be demonstrated for the
point that there is greater due diligence done from radiosonde balloons. The MSU data period from 1975 to 1998. This has no
on small public offerings on the TSX than provides excellent global coverage and a high statistical significance on the millennial scale
there has been on Climate Science where degree of accuracy but it shows no of climate. Furthermore, there is very good
the IPCC proposals could cost billions. The meaningful warming trend as shown in Figure reason to suggest that a significant part of
Wegman Committee similarly concluded 2.6. Therefore, the AGW hypothesis is shown the average temperature increase is related
that, where massive amounts of public monies to be incorrect by the satellite records. In to the urban heat island effect. Since surface
and human lives are at stake, academic work scientific terms, the hypothesis fails. warming in itself is not proof of
should have a greater level of scrutiny and Anthropogenic Global Warming, and there
review. Finally, the recent reports from the world’s is a failure to observe any significant warming
temperature monitoring stations, the UK’s of the troposphere, then there is clear
Temperatures over the ocean are not taken Hadley Centre and in the US, NASA’s GISS, evidence that the AGW hypothesis is wrong.
by thermometers in the air two meters above UAH, and RISS all show that in the last year,
the surface, but by taking the temperature of from January 2007 to January 2008, the global Finally it is clear that in the 2007 IPCC
the sea water itself, the so-called sea surface average temperature has dropped reports, all scientific objectivity has been
temperature. (SST) Several different methods considerably. The cooling ranges from 0.65- abandoned in order to establish the authors’
have been used to measure SST, although 0.75 ºC (Figure 2.6), which is the largest single political objectives. Unfortunately they have
currently this is done mainly by buoys and drop ever recorded. Furthermore, the been rather successful since the media are
satellites. In the past, temperatures have been Secretar y General of the World quite happy to go along with the unsupported
taken from a variety of depths from one mm Meteorological Society, Michael Jarraud, has scientific conclusions and appear to be blind
(satellites) to two meters (ship engine water agreed that temperatures have dropped and to the unprincipled distortion of the
intakes) which may not reflect air will continue to do so through 2008. The evidence.
temperature because of variable ocean cooling is attributed to La Nina although this
currents temperatures and prevailing wind was never factored into any of the climate REFERENCES
systems. model predictions of the IPCC in any of their Carter, R .M. 2007. The Myth of Human Caused
assessment reports (1990, 1995, 2001, and Climate Change. The AusIMM New Leaders
The merit of calculating global average 2007). Moreover in the IPCC 2007, Conference. Brisbane, QLD, May 2-3.
surface temperature has been questioned “Summary For Policymakers”, it was claimed
since there is not one global climate but a that average Northern Hemisphere Balling, R. C . Jr. 1992. The Heated Debate:
large variety of climates depending on temperatures during the second half of the Greenhouse Predictions Versus Climate Reality. San
latitude, geographic distribution of land 20th Century were very likely (their italics) Francisco, Pacific Research Institute for Public
masses, and atmospheric dynamics. Weather greater than in any other 50-year period in Policy.
is not about homogeneities but differences. the last 500 years and likely (their italics) the
It is the redistribution of heat that generates highest in the last 1,300 years. The detailed Goodridge, J. D. 1996. Comments on Regional
weather and climate. As an example, 1947 work of Hubert Lamb shows that this is Simulations of Greenhouse Warming including
was the coldest year in the UK since records simply incorrect. The Mann “Hockey Stick” National Variability. Bulletin American
have been kept but appears as one of the incident shows a level of desperation to Meteorological Society, v. 77, p. 3-4.
warmest years in global records. Much has establish the link to AGW and the failure to
been made of the potential loss of the acknowledge this in IPPC 2007 reports Humphreys, Helen. 2007. The Frozen Thames.
Greenland ice cap which may cause indicates that we are no longer dealing with McLelland and Stewart, Toronto.
widespread sea level rise; however, science but the politics of a belief system.
temperature records on Eastern and IPCC. 1990. Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific
Western Greenland and adjacent eastern In conclusion, we can say that the World’s Assessment. Cambridge University Press,
Canada show significant cooling since 1960. Historic Climate has well documented Cambridge.
(Rogers, 1989 and Morgan et al., 1993). pronounced cycles of warming and cooling
occurring independent of CO2 levels in the IPCC. 2001. Climate Change 2001:The Scientific
The IPPC has depended almost exclusively atmosphere. Only in the last century can a Basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
on the rise in Global Average Surface possible link be established to CO2 when its IPCC. 2007. Climate Change:The Physical Science
Temperature as proof of anthropogenic production has increased since the industrial Basis , Summar y for Polic ymaker s . Four th
global warming (AGW). The AGW revolution. However, even then, the Assessment report, Intergovernmental Panel on
hypothesis proposes that ‘greenhouse’ gases correlation of atmospheric CO2 with global Climate Change. Geneva, Switzerland.
trap heat in the upper atmosphere. The average surface temperature is relatively
general circulation models supporting this poor. The rebound of temperature from the Lamb, H. H. 1965. The Early Medieval Warm
hypothesis show an increasing warming trend Little Ice Age to the average temperature Epoch and Its Sequel. Palaeogeography,
with altitude, peaking at roughly two times highs of the 1930s and 1940s occurs when Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, v. 1, p. 13-37.
the surface value at around ten kilometers. CO2 values lie between 290 to 310 ppmv but
Therefore, the diagnostic test of the validity cooling occurred while CO2 increased from Lamb, H. H. 1967. Britain’s Changing Climate.
of AGW theory is to actually measure the 310 to 330 ppmv from the 1950s to the early Geographical Journal, v. 133, p. 445-468.
temperature increase at 8-10 km in the 1970s. The only direct correlation occurs in
troposphere. Such measurements have the period from 1975 to 1998 when CO 2 Lamb, H. H. 1977. Climate – Present Past and
actually been taken in the troposphere for increased from 330 to 365 ppmv (Figure 2.7). Future. Volume 2, Climatic History and Future.
the last 50 years, from 1957 to 1980, by While the CO 2 content continues to Methuen, London.
radiosonde balloons, and since 1980 by increase, there has been no increase in
Microwave Sounder Units (MSU) onboard temperature this century (see Figure 2.6). Mann, M. E., Bradley, R. S., and Hughes, M. K.
NASA satellites. The accuracy and Therefore, a relationship between global 1998. Global scale temperature patterns and
8
Figure 2.6. NASA Satellite Data. Lower tropospheric temperature since 1978 measured by microwave sounding units. Note the lack of any clearly
defined warming trend. The record is dominated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillations of El Nino / La Nina together with cooling resulting from major
volcanic eruptions. The plunge in temperature from January 2007to January 2008 of 0.7 ºC has been attributed to La Nina.Thus if CO2 has any effect
at all it is quite insignificant in respect to other climate drivers.
Figure 2.7. Globally averaged temperature variations between 1850 and 2007. The temperature increase to the 1940s reflects natural rebound of
temperature from the Little Ice Age independent of CO2.The cooling from 1940 to 1970 occurs while CO2 is increasing and the only correlation with
rising CO2 is from 1980 to 1998. Although CO2 continues to increase global temperatures have shown no warming in the last ten years. Source:
HadCRUT3 dataset from the UK Met Office and U. of East Anglia.
9
climate forcing over the past six centuries. Nature,
v. 392, p. 779.
10
CL IMA
CLIMA TE CHANG
IMATE CHANGEE III:
Carbon Dioxide
by Dr. A. Neil Hutton
It is curious that this gas, which is the contribution of 5.5 GT C represents only This, then, leaves only radiation heat
fundamental building block of life, has a very small amount within the totality of transfer as the principal vehicle for
become vilified as the culprit of an the carbon cycle. However, it is the annual atmospheric warming by CO 2. Radiation
impending Climate Catastrophe . With increase of 3 GT of carbon annually which heat transfer occurs as a result of the
visual media, at this point, on screen drives the hypothesis of anthropogenic exchange of thermal radiation energy
would appear a nest of stacks belching global warming (AGW). between two or more bodies that arises
forth great plumes of “pollution.” The fact as a result of a temperature difference.
that this is mainly water vapour, the Earth’s Carbon dioxide is significantly denser than No medium need exist between the two
primary “greenhouse gas” responsible for the other elements of air. It is almost 60% bodies for heat transfer to take place,
somewhere between 85-95% of denser than nitrogen and 40% denser than since Photons traveling at the speed of
atmospheric warming is never oxygen. Happily, gases do not segregate light are the intermediaries of the
acknowledged. gravitationally, otherwise we would all electromagnetic radiation with a
suffocate in a layer of CO 2 some 400 to wavelength range of 0.1 to 100 microns,
What do we really know about CO 2? From 500 meters thick. Molecular activity in encompassing the visible light spectrum.
my experience, the general public is gases known as Brownian Motion causes Atmospheric warming is believed to occur
poorly informed. When asked to specify rapid diffusion and mixing of the different as a result of the fact that the atmosphere
the content of CO 2 in the atmosphere, molecular components. This is also aided is essentially transparent to short wave
and given a choice of 37.9%, 3.79%, or by convection as well as global radiation in the visible light spectrum –
0.0379% the great majority opts for one atmospheric circulation such that the 0.38 to 0.75 microns. However, global
of the first two values. However carbon components of the air are relatively warming theory suggests that long-wave
dioxide is a trace gas representing less constant globally. There are variations infrared radiation is preferentially
than 1% of the atmosphere, currently 379 regionally and – especially in the southern absorbed by certain gases in the
parts per million by volume (ppmv). To put hemisphere – where some fluctuations atmosphere, which causes it to warm. The
this in perspective, only 38 out of every are attributed in part to La Nina and El principal atmospheric gas causing warming
100,000 molecules of air are carbon Nino events, but the variation amounts to is water vapour and cloud with 85-95% of
dioxide. Then consider that it takes up to only a few parts per million by volume. In the warming attributed to it. The other
five years of emissions created by humans general, the southern hemisphere stations gases in order of relative importance are
to add 1 molecu le to e v e r y 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 have values about 5 ppmv lower than in carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide,
molecules. Moreover, in the media and the northern hemisphere. and ozone.
other reports, it is commonplace to read
that humans emit 14.5 gigatons (GT) of As a medium to warm the atmosphere, H o weve r, c a r b o n d i o x i d e h a s b e e n
CO 2 annually. This sounds enormous, but CO 2 seems like a very poor candidate. identified in the global warming hypothesis
it is never stated that this represents only First, because it is a trace gas forming less as having the fundamental characteristics
1.25 parts per million by volume annually than .0379 % by volume of the atmosphere of absorption and emission of infrared
of the total atmosphere. a n d , s e c o n d , b e c a u s e i t ’s t h e r m a l radiation (IR) and, as a result, it is claimed
conductivity is extremely low. Thermal that it is a potential driver of global
To provide some perspective on the conductivity is a property which measures climate. The carbon dioxide molecules do
numbers, it is useful to compare the how much heat per time unit and not have a simple single response to IR
relative amounts of carbon contained temperature difference flows in a medium. radiation. Four modes of molecular
globally in the atmosphere, the surface, Most gases have such low conductivity vibration, or spin occur in response to
and the oceans. The atmosphere contains values that they are excellent insulators photon stimulation. Carbon dioxide is a
750 GT C, vegetation soils and detritus i n t h e a b s e n c e o f c o n ve c t i o n . T h e linear molecule with the carbon atom
contain 2,200 GT C, the surface ocean conductivity of CO 2 (0.009) is less than situated in line between two oxygen
contains 1,000 GT C, and the intermediate half that of air (0.024), and it is only 15% atoms. The linear molecular structure
and deep ocean contain 38,000 GT C. of the conductivity of water (0.058). allows a vibrational response in which the
(Schimmel, 1995) These amounts, of Comparatively then, the capacity of CO 2 carbon atom oscillates between the
course, are not fixed and static as there to warm the atmosphere conductively is oxygen atoms. This particular response
is a continuous exchange between these negligible. Furthermore, examining the has the ability not only to absorb infrared
g l o b a l c a r b o n re s e r vo i r s . T h u s i t i s isochoric thermal diffusivity (a measure radiation but also to emit radiation;
estimated that each year the atmosphere of how rapidly a temperature change will however, only some 5% of molecules
and the surface ocean exchange 90 GT C; spread) demonstrates that doubling of actually radiate at room temperatures. The
vegetation and the atmosphere, 60 GT C; CO 2 has a negligible effect. Based on these ability of CO 2 to radiate has been utilized
marine biota and the surface ocean, 50 fundamental physical attributes, CO 2 can in the development of lasers and in the
GT C; and the surface ocean and the not be the vehicle of atmospheric thermodynamics of combustion chambers
intermediate and deep oceans, 100 GT C. w a r m i n g . ( G e r l i c h a n d T s c h e u s c h n e r, but this quantum state depends on
(Schimel, 1995). Therefore the human 2007.) elevated temperatures and electro-
11
magnetic stimulation. Alfred Schack, a the gas will rise to be replaced by cooler temperatures of -65°C. Given an average
pioneer in industrial thermodynamics, as air molecules. Since carbon dioxide, is to sea level temperature of 15°C the
early as 1972 indicated that the radiative a large extent, a product of combustion temperature at 2,500 meters altitude is -
heat transfer capabilities of CO2 at its vertical ascent along with water vapour 1.25°C, which is why mountains maintain
atmospheric temperatures were is a common feature of our winter snow cover and glaciers. This means that
negligible. The other quantum states of landscape. As the warmed air ascends the some 80% of the lower 20 kilometers of
CO 2 are capable of absorbing infrared but pressure drops and the molecules expand, the atmosphere (the troposphere) is
do not radiate. Carbon dioxide absorption which causes a drop in temperature. between 0 and -65°C. Therefore, in the
of IR radiation occurs in four narrow When gas is compressed it generates heat, predominantly subzero temperatures of
bands at 2, 3, 5, and 13-17 microns. CO 2 as in the inflation of a tire, and when the troposphere with the atmospheric
occupies only about 8% of the infrared decompressed it loses heat, the property pressure progressively diminished by
band and, given its levels as a trace gas, utilized in snow-making equipment. If the adiabatic expansion, the kinetic energy of
does not in itself have the capacity to volume remains the same and pressure is the gases is greatly reduced. As a result,
change the climate. This point is, in fact, decreased, then the temperature will quantum molecular activity causing IR
conceded by climatologists but they rely drop, which is the case in the global emission is reduced substantially.
on the concept of feedbacks to amplify atmosphere. The determining factor in
the effect. Feedbacks are unproven atmospheric pressure is the mass and Irrespective of the discussion above, the
assumptions that the warming by CO 2 will weight of the gas in that part of the IPCC 2007: Historical Overview of Climate
cause changes in clouds, water vapour, and atmosphere above the point of Change (p. 115, Figure 1) suggests that
precipitation systems amplifying the m e a s u re m e n t . A i r p re s s u re i n c re a s e s some infrared radiation passes through
w a r m i n g . T h e p o s i t i ve f e e d b a c k continuously from the top of the the atmosphere but most is absorbed and
assumptions have been incorporated into atmosphere to the Earth’s surface and so re-emitted in all directions by greenhouse
climate models which are typically the does temperature. This behaviour of the gas molecules and clouds. The effect of
major basis for global warming atmosphere is described as adiabatic this is to warm the Earth’s surface and
predictions. All leading climate models because there is no actual change in heat, the lower atmosphere . This statement
forecast that warming by increasing CO 2 but only pressure and temperature. The conflicts with the Second Law of
would cause an increase in cloud, rate at which temperature changes in the Thermodynamics, which indicates that
especially high altitude cirrus clouds, atmosphere is called the lapse rate. The energy will always flow from a higher to a
which would then amplify the warming. A theoretical lapse rate for a dry lower energy state. Heat can not flow from
recent publication by Spencer et al. (2007) atmosphere is 9.8°C per kilometer but a colder body (the atmosphere) to a
has shown these assumptions to be this is only for extremely dry atmosphere warmer body (the Earth’s surface) without
incorrect. In fact the feedback is negative such as in desert and arctic climates. The work being applied. This is a fundamental
so that as the tropical atmosphere (of the effect of high humidity and cloud is to p ro b l e m w i t h t h e G l o b a l Wa r m i n g
study area) warms, cirrus clouds decrease. reduce the lapse rate to an average of Hypothesis which unaccountably never
That allows more infrared heat to escape about 6.5°C per kilometer. As a result it seems to be challenged. Clouds have the
from the atmosphere to outer space. is normal to find aircraft cruising at 10,000 capacity to absorb infrared radiation but
meters (32,000 feet) experience air their capacity to emit is poor. Even if this
Because CO 2 absorption occurs over a
limited range of the IR spectrum it is
generally accepted that 99% of the
radiation in the CO 2 absorption bands is
absorbed within only a few tens to
hundreds of meters of the source. In
other words the absorption capacity of
CO 2 is saturated within a few hundred
meters above the Earth’s surface. Thus
doubling of atmospheric CO 2 will reduce
the saturation distance, causing only a
minor change in temperature.
Climatologists accept that the
temperature will change by less than 1°C.
Nevertheless, as was discussed above,
they claim that doubling of CO 2 will trigger
positive feedbacks, although – to this date
– there is no measurable evidence that
this occurs. Currently we are 40% of the
way to doubling pre-industrial levels of
CO 2 ; nevertheless, there has been no Figure 3.1. This figure is a plot of Historic Climate after Lamb included in the report of the IPCC, 1990 showing
warming this century. the well defined Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age. This chart of temperature variation is compared
with Proxy CO2 data from the Siple Dome in Antartica. What is noteworthy is the complete disconnection
If CO 2 is saturated, that is to say incapable between the proxy CO2 data and climate. Although the ice core proxies are claimed to be a direct measure
of getting any warmer by any further of atmospheric CO2, they do not reflect well established climate trends. The decline of CO2 proxies is coincident
absorption of IR radiation, then how does with burial depth and unrelated to climate. This should be compared with the data from Siple Dome Ice Core
the warmed gas behave? At this point in IPCC, 2007 Synthesis Report, p. 38, Figure 2.3., in which the horizontal scale has been unduly compressed
convective heat transfer will take over and and the data gap between Siple Dome Proxies and the real CO2 values from Mauna Loa eliminated.
12
were not the case, the cooler cloud can
not warm the Ear th’s surface . Clouds
generally, and low clouds in particular, cool
the surface. A point that is clearly made in
the weather records of the Little Ice Age
(Lamb, 1965) and more specifically by
Svensmark and Friis-Christensen (1997).
13
from 8400-8100 BP. The atmospheric CO 2
content decreases concurrent with
increased solubility in the cooling ocean.
In comparison the ice cores at Taylor Dome
demonstrate nearly flat values. (Figure 3.4,
lower curve).
14
Arctic and Antarctic waters. Alarms have REFERENCES cores for the increase in atmospheric CO 2 in
been raised concerning acidification of Beck, E. G. 2007. 180 years of CO2 gas analysis the past two centuries. Nature, v. 315, p. 45-
ocean waters. However, much of this is by chemical methods. Energy and 47.
unfounded as sea water is not inorganic Environment, v. 18, no. 2, p. 258-282.
brine but is dominated by organic life Pagani, M. 2005. Deep sea algae connect
which interacts with the oceans chemistry. Ceulmans, R. and Mousseau. M. 1994. Effects ancient climate, carbon dioxide and
Surface waters in particular are teeming of elevated CO 2 on woody plants. New vegetation. Yale University, June 27 2005.
with microorganisms. Cyanobacteria at the Physiologist v. 127, p. 425-446.
base of the oceanic food chain Poorter, H. 1993. Interspecific variation in the
photosynthesis CO 2 to provide sugars and Friedli, H. et al. 1986. Ice core record of the growth response of plants to an elevated
g i ve u p o x y g e n . T h e s e ve r y a n c i e n t 13C/12C ratio of atmospheric CO 2 in the past ambient CO 2 concentration. Vegetation 104/
organisms are believed to have provided two centuries. Nature, v. 324, p. 237-238. 105: p. 77-97.
the oxygen in the ancient atmosphere,
which originally was dominated by Gerlich, G. and Tscheuschner, R. D. 2007. Falsif Schack, A. 1929. Industrial Heat Transfer. (in
nitrogen and carbon dioxide, which has ication of the atmospheric CO 2 greenhouse German) Stahleissen m.b.H., Dusseldorf, First
had concentrations ranging up to 5,000 effects within the frame of physics. Published 1929, 8th Edition 1983.
ppmv in the Palaeozoic. These values are arXiv:0707.1161v1[Physics.ao-ph] 8 July
up to 13 times higher than present day 2007. Schack, A. 1972. The influence of the carbon
numbers. During the early part of the dioxide content of the air on the climate of
Palaeogene Period, from 65 to 34 million Hurd, B. 2006. Analyses of CO 2 and other the world. (in German) Physikalische Blatter
years ago, global climates were much atmospheric gases. AIG News, no. 86, p. 10- v. 28, p. 26-28.
warmer than today with very little ice at 11.
the poles, and CO 2 levels up to 5 times Schimel, D. S. 1995. Global Change Biology. v.
greater than today at 1,889 ppmv. (Pagani, Idso, S. B. and Quinn, J. A. 1983. Vegetational 1, p. 77-91.
2005). The richness and diversity of life redistribution in Arizona and New Mexico in
at this time does not indicate any injurious response to doubling of the atmospheric CO 2 Spencer, R. 2008. Climate confusion: How
effects to the biosphere of significantly concentration. Laboratory of Climatology, global warming hysteria leads to bad science,
higher CO 2. Arizona State Univer sity, Tempe , Arizona. pandering politicians, and misguided policies
Climatological Publications Scientific Paper no. that hurt the poor. Encounter Books, New York.
Finally, the IPCC claim that the reported 17.
warming since 1979 is very likely caused Spencer, R. W., Braswell, W. D., Christy, J. R.,
by the human emission of greenhouse Indermuhle et al. 1999. Holocene carboncycle and Hnilo, J. 2007. Cloud and radiation budget
gases (mainly CO 2) can not be supported dynamics based on CO 2 trapped in ice at changes associated with tropical intraseasonal
because it places an undue reliance on Taylor Dome, Antarctica. Nature, v. 398, p. 121- oscillations. Geophysical Research Letters, v.34
proxy CO 2 values from ice cores. The ice 126. L15707, doi: 10.1029/2007 GL 029628.
core data, because of the low and invariant
values would indicate a prolonged cold Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change. Svensmark, H., and Friis-Christensen, E. 1997.
period. This is not suppor ted by well 1990. Climate Change – The IPCC Scientific Variation of cosmoc ray flux and global cloud
documented cycles of warming and cooling Assessment. Cambridge University Press, coverage – A missing link in solar climate
since the Holocene. Therefore, one has Cambridge. relationship. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-
to conclude that the ice core data is wrong Terrestrial Physics, v. 59, no. 11, p. 1225- 1232.
or CO 2 has no obvious connection with Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change.
climate change . The only coincidental 2001. Climate change 2001: The scientific Tu b a e t a l . 1 9 9 8 . C a r b o n g a i n s b y
correlation of CO 2 with warming climate basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. desiccationtolerant plants at elevated CO 2 .
has occurred in the decades from the Functional Ecology. v. 12, p. 39-44.
1980s to 1990s. This correlation no longer Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change.
appears relevant since there has been no 2007. Climate change: The physical science Wagner, F. et al. 1999. Century-scale shifts in
warming since 1998 and the climate has basis. IPCC Summary for Policymakers. Fourth Early Holocene atmospheric CO2
cooled significantly since 2007. The failure Assessment Report. Geneva, Switzerland. concentrations. Science, v. 284, p. 1971-1973.
to demonstrate a link between CO 2 and
climate change indicates that the policies Jaworowski, Z. 1994. Ancient atmosphere - Wagner,T., Aaby, B., and Visscher, H. 2002.
being called for to fight climate change validity of ice core records. Environmental Rapid atmospheric CO 2 changes associated
can not be justified and are unnecessary. Science and Pollution Research v. 1, pt. 3, p. with the 8200-years-BP cooling event.
To f o l l o w t h i s p a t h w i l l re s u l t i n a n 161-171. Proceedings of the National Academy of
enormous misuse of capital that diverts Sciences, v. 99, no. 19, p. 12011-12014.
from developing more effective and Jaworowski, Z. 2007. The greatest scientific
efficient methods of energy use. The public scandal of our time. EIR, Science. March 16. Wullschleger, et al. 1997. Forest trees and their
debate over climate change has strayed response to atmospheric CO 2 enrichment: A
far from objective science and has been Lamb, H. H. 1965. The Early Medieval Warm compilation of results. In: Advances in Carbon
extremely distorted by the errors and Epoch and its sequel. Palaeogeography, Dioxide Effects Research. L.H. Allen et al (eds.).
exaggerations in the reports of the IPCC. Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology. v. 1, p. 13- American Society of Agronomy, Madison, WI.
It is a profound embarrassment to science 37. p. 79-100.
that hype and spin have replaced reason
in such an important issue. Neftel, A. et al. 1985. Evidence from polar ice Wullschleger et al. 1995. On the potential for
15
a CO 2 fertilization effect in forests: Estimates
of biotic growth factor based on 58 controlled
exposure Studies. In: Biotic Feedbacks in the
Global Climatic System. G.M. Woodwell and
F.T. MacKenzie (eds.). Oxford University Press,
New York. p. 85-107.
16
CL IMA
CLIMA TE CHANG
IMATE CHANGE E IV
IV::
The Greenhouse Effect
by Dr. A. Neil Hutton
Let us discuss the ‘greenhouse effect’, which centres is believed to average up to 120 Encyclopedia of Astronomy and Astrophysics
must be the most misused term ever in milliwatts per square meter. The failure to (2001) has the following definition (my
scientific literature. Planetary atmospheres realize this resulted in Kelvin’s erroneous emphasis below):
do not remotely resemble the warming air estimate of the age of the Earth as 100 million
inside a greenhouse. The warming effect in a years. Therefore , the relevance of the “The greenhouse effect is the radiative
greenhouse results from the fact that there theoretical temperature of the influence exerted by the atmosphere of a
is no source of cooler air to circulate by atmosphereless Earth to the greenhouse planet which causes the temperature at
convection. This, of course, can be remedied effect is questionable. the surface to rise above the value it would
by opening doors or vents in the roof. normally reach if it were in direct
Furthermore, the Earth is 70% ocean. Is it equilibrium with sunlight (taking into
There is a historic misconception that the possible to have an atmosphere-less Earth account the planetary albedo). This stems
glass of a greenhouse traps infrared radiation. with oceans (see Gerlich and Tscheuschner, from the fact that certain gases have the
In 1909, R. W. Wood showed that the 2007)? The oceans have a fundamental ability to transmit most of the solar
greenhouse effect did not result from trapped influence on climate and the atmosphere.The radiation and to absorb the infrared
radiation. He created an enclosure with a globally averaged near-surface temperature emission from the surface. The thermal
window of rock salt (NaCl), which is amounts to 15ºC (288ºK). The difference in (i.e., infrared) radiation intercepted by the
transparent to visible light as well as infrared, these values, 288ºK – 255ºK is 33ºK, which atmosphere is then partially reemitted
and compared it with a second enclosure is attributed to the effect of the atmosphere towards the surface, (in some texts this
using glass as a window. The enclosure with (“greenhouse effect”). In a recent paper, is referred to as back radiation) thus
the rock-salt window became warmer than Essex et al., (2006) have questioned the contributing additional heating to the
did the enclosure with glass because it was entire concept of an average global surface. Although the analogy is not
transparent to almost the entire spectrum temperature. They argue, “while the statistic entirely satisfactory in terms of physical
while the glass was not. If glass was placed in is nothing more than an average over processes involved, it is easy to see the
front of the salt-faced enclosure, the temperatures, it is regarded as “the parallels between the greenhouse effect
temperatures equalized. Wood concluded temperature ,” as if an average over in the atmospheresurface system of a
that trapping of infrared radiation within a temperatures is actually a temperature in planet and a horticultural greenhouse: the
glass enclosure is of minimal importance in itself, and as if the out-of-equilibrium climate planetary atmosphere plays the role
comparison to the lack of convective system has only one temperature. But an of the glass cover that lets sunshine
circulation. average of temperature data sampled from a through to heat the soil while partly
non-equilibrium field is not a temperature. retaining the heat that escapes from
The atmosphere is a veritable “mixmaster” Moreover, it hardly needs stating that the the ground.”
in terms of circulation as warm tropical air Earth does not have just one temperature. It
is driven to the poles and, under the influence is not in global thermodynamic equilibrium Even in the IPCC, 2007. Historical Overview
of the Coriolus force, causes the trade winds – neither with itself nor with its of Climate Change (p. 115), “Much of this
and westerlies of the northern and southern surroundings.” And finally, “The temperature thermal radiation emitted by land and ocean
hemispheres. In addition, locally and field of the Earth as a whole is not is absorbed by the atmosphere including
regionally, convection drives the weather thermodynamically representable by a single clouds, and re-radiated back to Earth. This is
systems to draw up water vapor generated temperature.” called the ‘the greenhouse effect.’ The glass
by evaporation into the atmosphere, which walls in a greenhouse reduce airflow and
is then returned as precipitation. These Unfortunately the terms ‘greenhouse effect’ increase the temperature of the air inside.
systems act to redistribute heat in the and ‘greenhouse gases’ have stuck in the Analogously, but through a different
atmosphere and maintain a degree of climatic climatological literature and in the popular physical process the Earth’s greenhouse
equilibrium. Thus, it is clear that the Earth’s press. Because infrared radiation is not effect warms the surface of the planet.”
atmosphere is not remotely like the air in a trapped in a greenhouse and convection is This is not an analogue since the physical
greenhouse. not constrained in the atmosphere, the term processes present a complete contrast in
is an oxymoron. It is misleading since it function.
A fundamental hypothesis of the so-called implies some sort of boundary layer in the
“greenhouse effect” is that if there were no atmosphere and is far from descriptive of There is obviously a serious reluctance to
atmosphere the average temperature of the the dynamic role of the gases in the give up the greenhouse analogy although it
Earth would be -18ºC (255ºK).This is a totally atmosphere. It has become established as is well recognized that it is incorrect. Both
theoretical construct, or thought climatological jargon but tends to confuse descriptions above introduce the concept
experiment, since it is probable that never even those who should know better. Of of back radiation, suggesting that somehow
in Earth’s history has this condition occurred. more than 20 descriptions of the greenhouse long-wave infrared radiation is intercepted
Moreover, the Earth has a radioactive core effect that I have reviewed, many of them are and radiated back to warm the Earth’s surface.
which continuously generates heat, currently simply wrong or misleading. Although it is This concept held by climatologists has been
at a rate of 87 milliwatts per square meter, now acknowledged that the greenhouse challenged by theoretical physicists and
which is neither seasonal nor diurnal. The analogy is incorrect, nevertheless, even others (Thieme, 2003; Gerlich and
generation of heat along ocean-spreading supposedly authoritative works, such as the Tscheuschner, 2007; Kramm, 2008). If the
17
outgoing thermal radiation from the Earth’s Budget (Kiehl and Trenberth, 1997 Figure 7, CO2 represents only 0.0375% by volume of
surface is absorbed then the warmed air will p. 206). Although this study purports to have the atmosphere and it demonstrates infrared
expand and rise convectively so that the constrained measurements of the energy flux absorption in three slender bands involving
absorbed warmth is taken away by air mass by satellite observations, in fact the less than 8% of the infrared spectrum;
exchange as well as cooling from the instrument error range is much greater than however, the KT97 Study attributes 26% of
adiabatic pressure drop. Most people will any detectable variation at the top of the the radiative forcing to CO 2. If such an
be familiar with the heat of gas compression atmosphere (Spencer, 2007). With respect extreme effect existed, concentrated CO 2
when inflating a tire or the cooling effect of to measurements of surface fluxes of long- in the laboratory should demonstrate a heat
decompression in snow-making equipment. wave radiation the study relies on model conductivity anomaly, which is not the case.
calculations based exclusively on radiative Furthermore, nowhere in climatological
As pressure drops with elevation, so does heat transfer and the spectral characteristics literature have we seen any discussion of
temperature – reaching -65ºC at the top of of the various gases. the quantum energy states of CO2 molecules
the troposphere at about 10,000 meters. The in the range from -10 to -65ºC, the dominant
Second Law of Thermodynamics states that The model study is conducted on temperature of the troposphere . The
warmth can never spontaneously pass from standardized atmosphere profiles. These emissivity of a substance is a function of
a body of low temperature to a body of high standard profiles are static and essentially temperature.
temperature without the application of two-dimensional. As the KT97 model
work. Thus according to our understanding indicates, the treatment of cloud is One of the problematic issues with this
of the ideal gas laws and thermodynamic laws, accomplished as three simple static layers model is that the energy reaching the top of
back radiation is not possible. The concept of low, intermediate, and high cloud randomly the Earth’s atmosphere during daytime is
implies reflection but there is no such overlapped to provide on average 62% cover about 1,370 watts per square meter (w/m2).
boundary layer. The cooler atmosphere can (a simplistic and unrealistic static model). However, because the planet is spherical,
not warm the surface. Nevertheless, this is a Although Kiehl and Trenberth themselves the energy averaged over the whole planet
basic tenet of global warming theory. highlight a series of difficulties in developing is approximately one quarter of this value,
a global energy budget, nonetheless it has or 342 w/m 2. Of this quarter of the sun’s
A cornerstone of the IPCC discussion of the become the showpiece of the IPCC energy, approximately 107 w/m2 is reflected,
“Greenhouse Effect” (Figure 4.1) is the KT97 assessments (Historical Overview of while an additional 67 w/m2 is absorbed in
model of the Earth’s Global Mean Energy Climate Change Science, Figure 1, p. 96) the atmosphere as shown in Figure 4.1.
Figure 4.1. Estimate of the Earth’s annual and global mean energy balance. According to this model, the amount of incoming solar radiation absorbed by the Earth
and atmosphere is balanced by the Earth and atmosphere releasing the same amount of outgoing long-wave radiation (new research regarding the warming of the
stratosphere by cosmic rays tends to invalidate this basic concept. Osprey et al. (2009), Geophysical Research Letters). About half of the incoming solar radiation is
absorbed by the Earth’s surface. This energy is transferred to the atmosphere by warming the air in contact with the surface (thermals), by evapotranspiration, and
by long-wave radiation that is absorbed by clouds and greenhouse gases. It is further claimed that the atmosphere in turn radiates long-wave energy back to Earth
as well as out to space. The latter concept is challenged by many scientists as discussed in the text (IPCC, Historical Overview of Climate Science, 1, p. 96, FAQ 1.1, Figure
1, after Kiehl and Trenberth, 1997).
18
Consequently, 168 w/m 2 reaches and is although never discussed in the literature, nature of the problem.
absorbed by the surface; however, this that the atmosphere in itself is actually an
radiated energy is not sufficient to heat the efficient insulator? The orthodoxy on the other hand argues
surface to +15ºC. In the KT97 model, the that photons are emitted in all directions at
problem is solved by the atmosphere – by Gerlich and Tscheuschner (2007), two all times within the quantum realm. Two
some unknown means – producing 324 w/ theoretical physicists, published on the bodies at different temperatures will
m2 that are “back radiated” down to the internet an extensive article challenging continue to radiate since the colder body
Earth’s surface. That this violates the first greenhouse theory and reviewing all of the does not recognize the adjacent warmer
and second laws of thermodynamics appears mathematical and thermodynamic principles body. However, in the observable realm the
to be of no consequence to climatologists. involved. They challenged the notion of an net transfer of energy is still from the warm
It is clear that attempting to explain the Earth with no atmosphere, as well as the object to the colder object until equilibrium
Earth’s energy solely from radiative heat concept of global average temperature as an is achieved, which is never in the out-
transfer presents significant problems and indication of global emmisivity, because in ofequilibrium climate system. The argument
that the radiative-heat-transfer greenhouse reality each square meter of the Earth’s may be valid in terms of solid objects but
theory is seriously flawed. surface has a unique characteristic depending presents enormous difficulty in a gaseous
on its composition – forest, meadow, asphalt, atmosphere where molecular diffusion is
On the right side of Figure 4.1 are two fluxes water, snow, desert, tundra, and so on. So intense and the atmosphere is in constant
– one from the surface producing 350 w/m2 that as Essex et al. (2006) argue, there is no non-equilibrium motion. Therefore, although
and the other ‘back radiation’ yielding 324 global average temperature and it has no photons may be emitted towards the surface,
w/m 2 to the surface. This appears to be a validity within the energy balance concept, the net energy flow will always be from the
completely circular energy flow with no and they question the ability of the warm surface to the atmosphere. So that,
actual source. In order to back radiate this troposphere at -65ºC to warm the surface unless climatology has developed some new
energy flux, the atmosphere would be at +15ºC. thermodynamic principle, back radiation is
required to have a temperature higher than denied by fundamental thermodynamic laws.
the surface. The adiabatic nature of the The greenhouse theorists, argue that every
atmosphere dictates a decrease of substance radiates if it is above absolute The development of greenhouse theory is
temperature with elevation. The drop in zero. But does this apply to gases? The exclusively developed around radiative heat
temperature is typically about 6.5ºC per fundamental argument is that oxygen and transfer because the imperative of its
kilometer, so that at a height of five nitrogen are transparent to long-wave authors was to establish CO2 as the causative
kilometers (mid-troposphere) the radiation. Gerlich and Tscheuschner argue mechanism in climate change to the exclusion
temperature is -32.5ºC, which can not that the Plank and Stefan-Boltzman equations of anything else. This perspective ignores the
possibly initiate a down-going energy flux of used in calculations of radiative heat transfer fact that climate is subject to other drivers,
this magnitude. Furthermore, as Thieme can not be applied to gases in the atmosphere and while it continuously moves toward
(2007) argues, radiant fluxes are definable as because of the highly complex multi-body equilibrium it never achieves this state.
to magnitude and direction as vectors. The
sum of vectors will produce a new vector
modified in magnitude and direction, but with
the proviso that two exactly equal vectors
of opposite direction will sum to zero. The
reality (Figure 4.1) is that, in fact, only 40 w/
m2 are radiated from the surface.The outgoing
350 w/m2 and back radiation of 324 w/m2 are
imaginary, again contradicting physical laws
since this is in reality a perpetual motion
machine of the second kind (Kramm, 2007;
Gerlich and Tscheuchner, 2007; and Thieme,
2003).
19
Spencer (2007) argues that precipitation feedbacks are positive . The models, Meteorological Society, v.78, no. 2, p.197- 208.
systems act as the Earth’s thermostat (Figure therefore, predict too much warming in
4.2) and states: “I believe it can be response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas Kramm, G. 2008. Contribution to discussion of
demonstrated that precipitation systems emissions. That this is correct is well Gerlich and Tscheuschner paper. Falsification of
ultimately control most of the Earth’s natural demonstrated by the last 10 years where the CO2 greenhouse effects within the frame of
greenhouse effect. The air in our atmosphere the IPCC projections for the thermal physics. Rabett.blogspot.com/2008/02/all-you
is continuously recycled through response of the atmosphere consistently never- wanted-to-know.html. Items 180, 457, 735,
precipitation systems (see Figure 4.2), on a overstate the case. 770, and 844.
timescale of days to weeks. Wind picks up
water vapour that has been evaporated from In conclusion, the greenhouse theory of Murdin, P. (Ed.). 2001. Encyclopedia of astronomy
the surface, and then transports this vapour anthropogenic global warming is seriously and astrophysics. Nature Publishing Group, New
to precipitation systems. Those systems then flawed and certainly provides no scientific York. http://eaa.crcpress.com.
remove some of that vapour in the form of basis to introduce policy measures. This will
rain or snow.” cause a serious misapplication of scarce Spencer, R.W. 2008. Climate Confusion: How global
capital to projects that will have no influence warming hysteria leads to bad science, pandering
This view is generally understood by on climate. The amount of capital already politicians and misguided policies that hurt the
climatologists, but what are not understood squandered to this date on this fruitless poor. Encounter Books.
are the myriad microphysical processes endeavour will, without doubt, emerge as
within clouds. The or thodox view one of the greatest scientific scandals of the Spencer, R.W. In press. Satellite and climate model
incorporated into all General Circulation 20th and 21st Centuries. The almost evidence against substantial man-made climate
Models is that the very small effect of CO2 evangelical need to save the planet has change. Journal Climate.
will be amplified by an increase in cloud overridden any scientific objectivity.
thereby increasing the warming – a positive Spencer, R. W., Braswell, W. D., Christy, J. R., and
feedback. Spencer (2009) and his colleagues REFERENCES Hnilo, J. 2007. Cloud and radiation budget
(Spencer and Braswell, 2008; Spencer et al., Essex, C., McKitrick, R., and Andresen, B. 2007. changes associated with tropical intra-seasonal
2007), have been able to document from Does a global temperature exist? Journal Non- oscillations. Geophysical Research Letters, 34,
detailed analysis of satellite data that the Equilibrium Thermodynamics, v. 32, no. 1, p.1-27. L15707, doi: 1029/2007GL029698.
climate system is much less sensitive to
greenhouse gas emissions than has been Gerlich, G. and Tscheuschner, R. D. 2007. Spencer, R.W. and Braswell,W. D. 2008. Potential
claimed by the IPCC. This body of research Falsification of the CO2 greenhouse effects within biases in cloud feedback diagnosis: A simple model
has profound implications for the theoretical the frame of physics. arXiv: 0707.1161 v.1 demonstration. Journal Climate, Nov 1.
basis of Anthropogenic Global Warming since [Physics.ao-ph] 8 July 2007.
instead of relying on theoretical assumptions Thieme, H. 2003. On the phenomenon of
unconstrained by measurement and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. atmospheric backradiation. http//www.geocities.
observation, Spencer and his colleagues have 2007. Climate change: the physical science basis, com/atmosco2/backrad.htm.
done exactly the opposite by examining Summary for Policymakers. Fourth Assessment
satellite data in great detail and then Report, Geneva, Switzerland. Wood, R. W. 1909. Note on the theory of the
determining which aspects of the climate greenhouse. Philosophical Magazine v. 17, p. 319-
system best explain the observations. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 320. www.mconolley.org.uk/sci/wood_
results are salutary; the detailed 2007. Climate change: historical overview of rw.1909.html.
observations indicate that net feedbacks in climate change science. Fourth Assessment Report,
the real climate system on both short- and Geneva, Switzerland.
long-term time frames are negative.
Misinterpretation of cloud behaviour has led Kiehl, J. T. and Trenberth, K. 1997. Earth’s annual
modelers to build models in which cloud mean global energy budget. Bulletin of the
20
CL IMA
CLIMA TE CHANG
IMATE CHANGE EVV::
Here Comes the Sun
by Dr. A. Neil Hutton
Figure 5.2. The record of sunspot numbers from 1610 to 2008. The yellow line is the averaged Wolf number in use after 1749. The red diamonds represent group
numbers in use before 1749. The heavy green and magenta lines are the eleven-year mean of the monthly average of the group (pre-1749) and Wolf numbers (post-
1749). Solar cycles 1 and 23 are shown in bright yellow. The magenta eleven-year mean shows very clearly that the warmth of the last part of the 20th Century is
marked by significantly greater activity than at any time in the previous 400 years (Source: graphic from Stellar Spectrograph at Lowell Observatory data NASA and
Royal observatory of Belgium).
21
Figure 5.3. 400 Years of Sunspot Numbers with the eleven-year mean of the monthly averages (heavy black line) that shows the Modern Maximum Activity is higher
than at any time in the past 400 years shown on the chart (Source, NOAA and Royal Observatory of Belgium, compiled by Hoyt and Schatten, 1998a, 1998b).
The warming of the last half of the 20th argued that these changes are so small that Science, p. 108, 2007) categorically state that,
Century is marked by much higher sunspot they can not significantly affect the climate. “… changes in solar irradiance are not the
activity than has been observed in the Measurements over the last 30 years suggest major cause of the temperature changes in
previous 200 years. that during the minima, the sun produces the second half of the 20th century, unless
1,361 watts per square metre at the top of those changes can induce large feedbacks in
The Total Solar Irradiance will increase the atmosphere and this increases by only the climate system.” This totally begs the
during the solar maxima (when the sun 1.3 watts per square metre (0.1%) during question of why climate was significantly
displays the maximum number of sunspots) periods of maximum activity, apparently too colder during the Maunder and Dalton
and decrease during the solar minima (when small to cause significant warming. The IPCC Minimums, and fails to acknowledge that the
the sun has fewest sunspots). Currently, it is (Historical Overview of Climate Change sun, during the last four hundred years, had
22
its most active period in the last half of the
20th Century (Figure 5.3).
23
effect is reversed for the opposite
hemisphere. Presently our northern
summer occurs near aphelion.
24
Nevertheless, Milankovitch’s work has fallen sun, which extends the
out of favour once more, since climatologists sun’s magnetic field far
are reluctant to concede a role for the sun into space. The solar
and prefer to discount variations in wind was discovered in
insolation as having a material effect on 1958, and space probes
climate. Most of the current criticisms are now show that it
based on lack of an ideal perfect fit to the extends far beyond the
predicted cycles.This assumes, of course, that sun and the solar system
there are no other factors influencing the into interplanetary
climate during the periodicity of the space. To provide some
Milankovitch Cycles which, as we will discuss, measure of the scale of
is not the case . The sunspot cycle the heliosphere, light
undoubtedly has an influence but this occurs or any unimpeded
over a shorter time frame than the major cosmic particle will take
glacial cycles. some 20 hours to travel
from the outer limit of
A number of researchers have studied the heliosphere into
longterm patterns of sunspot cycles in order the centre of the solar
to detect longer-term trends. Commonly the system, compared to
approach is to run an autocorrelation analysis eight minutes for light
to detect statistically significant cycles. (e.g., from the sun to reach
Cole, 1973; Neftel, Oeschger, and Suess, the earth. So, not only Figure 5.9. Solar activity from 1700 with Abdussamatov’s projections beyond
1981). Typically such studies identify a 200- does the sun provide us the year 2000. According to the author, the sun is at the end of a 200-year
year cyclicity in minima to maxima of the with its energy, but the solar cycle. The continuation of warming is attributed to the thermal inertia of
sun’s 11-year sunspot cycle. heliosphere is like a the oceans as a result of warming during the 20th Century. Beyond 2000, the
giant umbrella author forecasts a sharp decline in solar activity. The peak at the year 2000
Khabibullo Abdussamatov (2007), a Russian protecting us from a is Sunspot Cycle 23 and that Abdussamatov’s forecast for Cycle 24 (made in
space researcher, also determined that sun potentially devastating 2006) is lower than the most recent projection from NOAA in January 2009.
spots occur in 200-year cycles. For example, rain of cosmic energy On this basis, the analysis of the solar radius has greater predictive ability for
he regards the period of the Medieval Warm (Figure 5.11, page 26). the variability of the solar cycle (Source: Solomon, 2008).
Period to the conclusion of the Little Ice The boundary of the
Age (LIA) as the first 200-year cycle. The heliosphere fluctuates
second cycle is from the end of the LIA until according to surges of
the present. (Figure 5.9). Abdussamatov cosmic energy and the
attributes the lag in cooling to the thermal competing energy of
inertia of the oceans, which have an immense the solar wind.
heat capacity, and have been warmed
significantly during the 20th Century. As Approximately 50-70%
Figure 5.9 suggests, Abdussamatov’s of incoming cosmic
projections may prove to be accurate since radiation is deflected by
he records a sharp dropoff in the year 2000, the heliosphere, with
with a minima at or before the year 2040. the remaining cosmic
The current behaviour of the sun is actually energy reaching the
lower than the Abdussamatov forecast and Earth, where it is, in
indicates that we may be entering a period part, deflected by the
of global cooling. The projections are not magnetic field. In the
based on analysis of individual sunspot cycles, atmosphere, primary
but on observations of the solar radius, particles are to a large
which is directly related to solar activity. It extent brought to halt
was noticed during the Maunder minimum in collisions. The release Figure 5.10. This graph shows the progression of the Average Planetary Mag-
of the LIA, that the quiescent sun’s radius of energy yields netic Index which is a measure of the solar particle radiation by its magnetic
decreased significantly, thus the measure of millions to billions of effects. The Index shows a significant decline with a distinct step in October 06
solar radius and its behaviour provides a secondary particles that to values ranging from 7-8. Since then, there has been a further sharp decline
guide to broader cycles of the solar activity. dissipate steadily to values of 3 or 4, the lowest ever recorded. All of this suggests that the sun has
Recently released data indicates that the Total towards sea level. made a transition from a very active cycle to an inactive period. This may
Solar Irradiance and the Average Planetary Measurements indicate have the characteristics of a Dalton Minimum of the 1800s (Source: NOAA/
Magnetic Index (AP) are declining, and are that cosmic rays show a SWPC. Boulder, Colorado).
now at the lowest levels since the 1930s 25-30% decrease
when recording started (Figure 5.10). following periods of high sun-spot counts Friis-Christensen and Lassen in which they
when the solar wind is strong. Therefore, documented a close relationship between
The AP index is designed to measure solar there is a link between the sun’s TSI and its solar activity and the surface temperature of
particle radiation by its magnetic effects and deflection of cosmic energy, which has the earth (Figure 5.12, page 26).
provides a measure of the sun’s magnetic significant effects on Earth’s climate. Subsequently, in 1997, Svensmark and Friis-
field, the heliosphere. The heliosphere is the Christensen, in a landmark paper,
result of a constant stream of charged This new scientific field of cosmo-climatology documented a relationship between global
particles, the solar wind, emanating from the was started by a pioneering paper in 1991 by cloud coverage and cosmic ray flux. These
25
I think we can say effect on climate through the promotion of
that these findings cloud cover (see Svensmark and Calder 2007,
were greeted by “The Chilling Stars” for an excellent review
hostility from the on cosmoclimatology).
promoters of
Anthropogenic So now it is apparent that there is a feedback
(man-made) Global mechanism associated with the sun’s drop in
Warming theory. It energy output and the production of
would be fair to say aerosols, the precursors for the formation
that there was a of cloud droplets, by interaction of cosmic
deliberate attempt rays in the troposphere. Although the decline
to discredit in observed TSI may be small, it signals a drop
Svensmark’s in the energy of the solar wind and a greater
research and to influx of cosmic rays. This in turn produces
forestall approval more cloud and lowered temperatures.
of funds to Climate models only include the effects of
d e t e r m i n e the small variations in the direct solar
experimentally the radiation without the feedback effects of
nucleation of cosmic rays on clouds. Also, as already
clouds by cosmic discussed in an earlier article, the work of
rays. It was, Spencer (2009) demonstrates that the model
therefore, not until feedback assumptions are wrong in the first
2006 that place,
Figure 5.11. An illustration of the Heliosphere in relation to the solar planetary Svensmark and his
system and interstellar space.Variations in the sun’s activity will result in expansion team was able to The other element in this great clash of
or contraction of the Heliosphere which is also modulated by the strength of the embark on an cosmic energy is the variability and intensity
cosmic flux of the interstellar wind (Source: NASA Basics). experiment in of cosmic rays. The greatest generation of
which a reaction cosmic rays comes from stellar explosions
findings were expanded by Marsh and chamber the size of a small room was called supernovae which occur about once
Svensmark in 2000, describing the manner in constructed in the basement of the Danish every 50 years in a galaxy such as the Milky
which low cloud properties, in particular, National Space Center. The gases in the Way. They cause a brilliant luminous burst of
are influenced by cosmic rays. Figure 5.13 chamber mimicked the chemistry of the radiation which briefly may outshine an
shows a quite remarkable correlation lower atmosphere. Naturally occurring entire galaxy before fading in a few weeks
between the changes in the cloud cover in cosmic rays entered through the ceiling. The or months. During this brief interval, a
the troposphere and the associated variation result demonstrated quite conclusively that supernova can radiate as much energy as the
in cosmic radiation intensity in the period cosmic rays induced and catalyzed cloud sun in its entire life span (Giaccobe, 2005).
from 1984-1994. One can readily see that condensation nuclei. The intensity of the The explosion expels most of the stellar
the more cosmic rays enter the troposphere, reaction surprised the investigators who had material at a velocity at up to one-tenth of
the more cloud develops. Cosmic rays ionize expected only a moderate response. This the speed of light, driving a shock wave
the molecules of the atmosphere confirmed Svensmark and his collaborators’ through the interstellar medium.
transforming them into condensation nuclei interpretation that quite small changes in
for water vapour. cosmic radiation could have a significant Nir Shaviv, an Israeli physicist, working on
Figure 5.12. A plot of the sunspot cycle length versus the Northern Hemisphere Figure 5.13. This diagram was developed by observing the changes in cloudiness
land temperature that shows a remarkably good correlation over the last 130 as observed by geostationary satellites and comparing this with the variations in
years. On average, cycles are eleven years but it is known that the cycles are cosmic radiation. The coincidence of the changes in the cloud cover with the
shorter when activity is strong and are longer when activity is weak. Although this changes in cosmic radiation intensity is remarkable and provides compelling
correlation is convincing that there is a sun-Climate link it has been systematically evidence of the sun’s role in the cosmic ray cloud feedback system (Source:
ignored by IPCC (Source: Friis-Christensen and Lassen, 1991). Marsh and Svensmark, 2000).
26
Figure 5.14. A comparison of the Cosmic Ray Flux
(CRF) constructed from iron meteorite exposure data
(Shaviv, 2002b). The blue line depicts the nominal
CRF, while the yellow shading delineates the error
range. The other curves denote other CRF recon-
structions leading to the final fine-tuned blue recon-
struction. The bottom black curve depicts a statisti-
cally smoothed curve of temperature spanning
500m.y. (Veizer et al., 2000). The red line is the
model reconstruction for temperature based on the
CRF flux (red line upper). The blue bars at the top
represent cool climate modes with established polar
ice caps (icehouses) while the white bars represent
times of warmth (greenhouses) as developed from
sedimentological criteria (Frakes and Francis, 1998;
Frakes et al., 1992). The figure demonstrates that
the ‘icehouses’ and oxygen isotope cold intervals co-
incide with times of high CRF production, while the
greenhouse intervals are characterized by low CRF
episodes (Source: Shaviv and Veizer, 2003).
27
time scales. The fundamental problem is that Friis-Christensen, E. and Lassen, K. 1991. Length Svensmark, H. and Friis-Christensen, E. 1997.
there is no natural system that can act over of Solar Cycle: An Indication of Solar Activity Variations in Cosmic Ray Flux and Global Cloud
geological time scales to add or remove CO2 Closely Associated with Climate. Science, v. 254, Coverage – a Missing Link in Solar Climate
from the atmosphere. The oceans are the no. 5032, p. 698-700. Relationships. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-
main reservoir of CO2 so that in cold cycles Terrestrial Physics, v. 59 p. 1225-1232.
atmospheric CO 2 should be reduced, and Giaccobe, F. W. 2005. How a Type II Supernova
increased as the ocean warms. Therefore Explodes. Electronic Journal of Theoretical Physics Veizer, Jan. 2003. Celestial climate driver: a
changes in atmospheric CO2 follow climate v. 2, no. 6, p. 30-38. perspective from four billion years of the Carbon
change. cycle. Geoscience Canada, v. 32, p. 32-3
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
What emerges from this review is that 2007. Climate Change: Historical Overview of
climate is subject to a series of cycles Climate Change Science. Fourth Assessment
operating on different time scales but Report. Geneva, Switzerland.
modulated by the activity of the sun and its
interplay with the Cosmic Ray Flux. On short Lisiecki, L. E. and Raymo, M. E. 2005. A Pliocene-
time scales of decades and centuries, the sun Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic
spot activity, together with negative feedback Oxygen 18 records. Paleoceanography, v. 20,
from cosmic ray flux, are the principal climate PA1003.
drivers inducing the modulation of our
current warm period, and the historic Marsh, N. D. and Svensmark, H. 2000. Low Cloud
variation indicated by the Little Ice Age, Properties Influenced by Cosmic Rays. Physical
Medieval Warm Period, Dark Ages Cooling, Review Letters, v. 85, p. 5004-5007. Milankovitch,
Roman Warm Period, etc.. On the scale of M. (see: www.earthobservatory. nasa.gov/
millennia are the Milankovitch Cycles where Features/Milankovitch).
changes in insolation related to the attitude
and proximity to the sun cause glaciation Neftel, A. Oeschger, H. and Suess, H. E. 1981.
with a distinct 100,000 year or 40,000 year Secular Non-random Variations of Cosmogenic
periodicity. Finally there is the millionary Carbon 14. Earth and Planetary Science Letters
celestial cycle with a period of 143 (plus or v. 56, no. 12, p. 127-137, 141-147.
minus 10 million years) as the sun travels
through the Milky Way Galaxy, changing the Quinn, T. R., et al. 1991. A Three Million Year
Earth’s climate from icehouse to greenhouse Integration of the Earth’s Orbit.The Astronomical
with the modulation of the Cosmic Ray Flux. Journal, v. 101, p. 2287-2305.
If CO2 has any role in this cosmic journey it
is very minor and probably co-incidental. Rothman, D. H. 2002. Atmospheric carbon dioxide
levels for the past 500 million years. Proceedings
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Peaks of Several Succeeding Cycles on the Basis Shaviv, N. J. 2002a. Cosmic ray diffusion from the
of Long-Term Variations in the Solar Radius or galactic spiral arms, iron meteorites and a possible
Solar Constant. Kinematika i Fisika Nebesnykh, climate connection? Physical Review Letters, v. 89,
Tel 23, no. 3. 051102.
Berner, R. A. and Kothvala, Z. 2001. GEOCARB III: Shaviv, N. J. 2002b. The spiral structure of the
A revised model of atmospheric CO 2 over Milky Way, cosmic rays, and ice age epochs on
Phanerozoic time. American Journal of Science, v. Earth. New Astronomy, v. 8, p. 39-37.
301 p. 182-204.
Shaviv, N. J. and Veizer J. 2003. Celestial Driver of
Berner, U. and Streif, H. 2001. Klimafakten Der Phanerozoic Climate. GSA Today, v. 13 no. 7, p. 4-
Ruckblick Ein Schlussel fur die Zukunft. Stuttgart, 10.
Science Publishers, 238 p.
Spencer, R.W. 2009. Satellite and Climate Model
Cole,T.W. 1973. Periodicities in Solar Activity. Solar Evidence against Substantial Man Made Climate
Physics, v. 30. Change. In Press. Journal of Climate, also at
www.drroyspencer.co.
Frakes, L. A. and Francis, J. E. 1988. A guide to
Phanerozoic cold polar climates from high latitude Svensmark, H. 1998. Influence of cosmic rays on
ice rafting in the Cretaceous. Nature, v. 33, p. Earth’s climate. Physical Review Letters, v. 81, p.
547-549. 5027-5030.
Frakes, L. A., Francis, J. E., and Syktus, J. I. 1992. Svensmark, H. and Calder, N. 2007. The Chilling
Climate modes of the Phanerozoic;The history of Stars: A Cosmic View of Climate Change, Icon Books
the Earth’s climate over the past 600 million years. Ltd. U.K.
Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 286 p.
28
CL IMA
CLIMA TE CHANG
IMATE CHANGEEV I:
VI:
Fearmongering
by Dr. A. Neil Hutton
There is an endless litany of misinformation The first problem is the assumption that Nevertheless, the hype continues. The New
disseminated by those espousing human climate should not change when in reality it York Times, 19th February, 2001 edition had
induced warming. So much so that it will not is continuously cyclical, with well an article stating:
be possible to refute all of the erroneous documented historic warm periods in which
claims within this article. The list is long: temperatures matched or significantly “The icecap atop Mount Kilimanjaro,
melting icecaps, retreating glaciers, rising sea exceeded our current warmth. The kind of which for thousands of years floated
level, and ocean acidification; “the spin cycle” apocalyptical claims made above simply are like a cool beacon over the shimmering
of more hurricanes, tornadoes, and cyclones; not supported by the evidence. plain of Tanzania is retreating at such a
desertification and droughts; floods and pace that it will disappear in less than
torrential rains; animal extinction; and finally, Also, the cyclical advance and retreat of fifteen years, according to new studies.”
spreading disease and death. The worst glaciers with climate is well documented
offenders in all of this are our media, (print, from historical and archaeological records. This is a classic overstatement from the
wireless, and visual) who happily regurgitate It is very clear that the Earth has been in a press. What the study actually showed was
every sensationalized and exaggerated claim warming cycle since the end of the Little Ice that between 1912 and 1953, when surveys
attributed to the cause of anthropogenic Age in the middle of the nineteenth Century. were completed, the snow cap lost 45% of
global warming.(AGW) The data, if the media We should expect that glaciers will retreat its areal extent. This snow loss occurred
was alert and competent, is only a few mouse after 150 years of warming – this is natural during a period of warming before the
clicks away, so that, with very little effort, and cyclical, and is well illustrated by the industrial output of CO2 could have had any
the facts can be easily checked. Much of the Schnidejoch Glacier in the Swiss Alps significant role (Thompson et al., 2002). At
information is a matter of public record, and (Svensmark and Calder, 2007). Artifacts have this rate of loss (10% per decade) it would
the vast majority of the claims can easily be been recovered in the pass as the Glacier be fair to say that by the year 2000 the snow
discredited. The remainder is grossly retreats indicating that during warm periods cap would be gone. However, the snows of
exaggerated. the Schnidejoch Pass was used by travelers Kilimanjaro remain and the rate of loss has
to cross the Swiss Alps. The earliest artifact declined considerably. Satellite data, since
Perhaps one of the most egregious sources is a birch quiver dated to the close of the 1979, indicate that the mountain temperature
of misinformation is the Gore documentary, Holocene Climate Optimum (4,700 years as recorded by accurate satellite data has
“An Inconvenient Truth.” Very recently, the ago), and more than 300 items indicating declined by 0.22°C. Nevertheless, the glaciers
British High Court decided that the film was extensive use of the pass in the Roman and continue to retreat. In order to maintain a
unsuitable to be shown in the British Schools Medieval Warm Periods. Warming and glacier’s areal extent, there has to be a
because of at least nine errors of fact, and associated glacial retreat are natural balance between winter precipitation such
the high level of misleading and exaggerated processes and are not in themselves an that added snow cover will equal summer
statements. Nonetheless, our public indication of adverse or human-induced melt. The decline in Kilimanjaro’s ice cap is
broadcaster, CBC, has this year seen fit to climate change. the result of a significant decline in
screen the Gore film without disclaimer or precipitation in the last Century, not global
any presentation of balance to the The history of the Schnidejoch Glacier’s warming.
exaggerated claims. In the plethora of advance and retreat is replicated for glaciers
misleading hype in the media, Gore’s movie throughout the world. While people are The Great Arctic Meltdown, as reported in
hit on all of them, no fewer than 35 false or being told that they are responsible for glacial the National Geographic Magazine quoted
erroneous claims documented by Moncton retreat, consider the dread of people in the above and also in the New York Times states,
(2007) following the High Court case. path of advancing glaciers during the Little “Arctic Ice is Melting at Record Levels,
Ice Age: Scientists Say”. Of course all of this is
The National Geographic Magazine is a fine attributed to AGW. There is abundant data
publication but it is equally as guilty as Gore “The year was 1645, and the glaciers in to demonstrate that the reported conditions
in producing seriously misleading articles on the Alps were on the move . In are not without precedent. Arctic
Climate Change. An article in the June 2007 Chamonix at the foot of Mont Blanc, temperatures were significantly warmer in
issue is a case in point. Entitled “The Big people watched in fear as the Mer de the 1930s and 1940s as shown by Polykov et
Thaw,” the ar ticle retreads all of the Glace glacier advanced. In earlier years al. 2003 (Figure 6.1, page 30). Although Arctic
unwarranted claims contained in the Gore they had seen the slowly flowing ice Ice cover has been decreasing in recent
movie: engulf farms and crush entire villages.” decades, especially in the summer of 2006,
there has been a significant rebound
“A Global Retreat: Ice is on the run in The people turned to the Bishop of Geneva subsequently. It is difficult to explain this
its mountain and polar strongholds. As for help, and, at the ice front a rite of behaviour on the basis of Arctic air
the ice sheets on Greenland and exorcism was performed. Little by little the temperature, which has shown no significant
Antarctica shrink in the next few flow ceased and, the glacier receded. Similar variation in summer temperatures since
centuries, seas could rise 20 ft. (6.1 m). dramas unfolded throughout the Alps, 1958 (Polykov et al., 2003). A mild trend of
The shrinkage of mountain glaciers will Scandinavia and Iceland during the late 1600s warming has been identified in the winter
dry up rivers and alter landscapes.” and early 1700s” (Smithsonian Archives). but this has no effect since it is much too
29
measurements taken by US Nuclear
Submarines (Rothrock et al., 1999). As it
turned out, the profile, through the central
Arctic, was conducted at a time when
prevailing winds and ocean currents had
moved the ice out of the profile areas such
that the extrapolation of the limited data to
the entire Arctic grossly exaggerated the ice
loss. Subsequent research by Holloway and
Su in The Journal of Climate (2002),
demonstrated that because of the biased
sampling the ice loss was not 40%, as
trumpeted by the media, but only 15%. This
remarkable recovery of the Arctic Ice mass
received no media coverage whatsoever.
Meantime, the Gore documentary continues
to be shown – claiming a 40% ice loss. It is
not stated, but implied, that this would
elevate sea level. The fact is that even if the
Arctic Ice disappeared entirely it would not
affect sea level.
Figure 6.1. The bold line is the six-year running mean of Arctic temperature (after Polykov et al. 2003). The
dashed line is the annual temperature.Two distinct warming periods are clearly evident from approximately
In order to change sea level, to any significant
1915 to 1945 and from 1970 to 2000. Compared to the global and hemispheric temperatures, the Arctic
degree, it is necessary to actually melt the
temperature increase was stronger in the late 1930s and early 1940s than in recent decades.The warming
land-fast ice caps of Greenland and
of the 1930s occurred at a time before greenhouse gases could have caused significant warming.
Antarctica. For both of these land masses,
the temperature records show that they are
not warming. A very thorough study by
Hanna and Cappelin (2003) shows that the
surface records in southern Greenland,
potentially the most sensitive area of the Ice
Cap, have been cooling since 1958, and the
sea surface temperature demonstrates a
similar trend. In fact, the southern coastal
stations of Greenland show a drop of 1.27°C.
Nevertheless, in the June 2007 National
Geographic article, it is claimed that ice
sheets covering Greenland are shrinking
unexpectedly fast and the outlet glaciers that
carry ice to the sea are accelerating.
Shrinking and accelerating are contradictory
terms so far as glaciers are concerned. The
outflow from a glacier is not dependant on
air temperature but on the accumulation of
snow pack at the highest elevation of the
glacier. Krabill, in 1980, indicated a thickening
of up to seven feet on the Greenland ice cap
and, again in 2000, with a number of
coauthors, reported that the main mass of
Figure 6.2. A graphical presentation of the areal extent of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean. The maximum this the glacier above 6,500 feet is rising at about
century occurred in 2003 and the minimum in 2007.The sea ice area has been increasing since 2006, and 0.2 inches per year. Part of this may be
2009 appears on trend likely to exceed all years since 2004. As of April 2009, the sea ice extent matched the attributable to isostatic rebound, due to the
levels of 2002 and 2003 (data summarized from NASA Earth Observatory). unloading of the continental ice sheet, of
which Greenland was a part. But the
cold at that time for ice to melt. To achieve between the Arctic basin and the North conclusions of Krabill and his colleagues was
this rapid melt of Arctic pack ice requires Atlantic with a strong impact on Arctic ice that the whole region has been in balance.
changes in oceanic circulation. pack variability. In the winter of 2008-2009,
the Arctic Ice pack returned to the same Glaciers flow under their gravitational load
Polykov and Johnson (2000) identify several levels observed in 2001. so that the flow rate is a function of the
oscillatory modes in Arctic Climate. The accumulation of the snow pack. If
decadal Arctic Oscillation and an associated The threat of losing the Polar Ice Pack was precipitation is high the glacier will
Low Frequency Oscillation with a time scale raised in the Gore Film and was also made in accelerate but if it decreases then the glacier
in the range of 60-80 years are both strongly the Third Assessment Report of IPCC, where flow will slow. At its termination the
linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation. it was claimed that there had been a 40% movement of the glacier is a function of the
These climate oscillations result in decline in the thickness of polar pack ice. ambient air temperature. If summer
fluctuations in the thermohaline circulation This conclusion was based on a profile of 29 temperatures are high, and glacial advance is
30
slow, then the glacier will retreat. If the of loss. The Third Assessment Repor t number of heavily populated coastal cities.
glacier advances, it implies that the load of attributes only -0.02 to 0.09 meters (-0.78 Aside from the hysteria of improbable
the snow pack at high elevations is greater to 3.5 inches) in the next 100 years, sevenmeter increases, what is really known?
than the rate of melting. Therefore, the Therefore, IPPC recognized the possibility In 1990, the IPCC predicted that man-made
Greenland Ice Sheet would appear to be in a that melting of the Greenland Ice Cap may warming would result in an increase of 30 to
healthy balance. Also, warming can have a actually reduce sea level. As Krabill’s 100 cm, (12 to 39 inches) but by 2001 this
contrary effect on an ice cap, since it may research indicates, the ice loss on Greenland estimate was lowered to 9-88 cm, (3.5 to
actually increase the amount of precipitation is a mere 0.13mm/year or only 1.3 34.6 inches) and by 2007 in the IPCC fourth
as warmer air encounters subzero centimeters (0.5 inches) after 100 years. This assessment, given the oceans’ lack of
temperatures of the ice cap at high is a very far cry from the Greenpeace and response, was reduced to 18 and 59 cm, (7
elevations. National Geographic exaggerated claims of to 23.2 inches), an approximately 50%
20ft (6.1m), which would require 4 millennia reduction in the estimate from 1990.
The suggestion in the National Geographic to achieve at present melt rates. However, these estimates are not actually
article is that, during summer melt, the high based on real observations, but on unverified
levels of surface water – temporary ponds In Antarctica, a very similar picture exists – model results – in other words, guesswork!
and surface lakes – will fracture the ice and temperatures have been declining since the
drain down through to the glacier base and 1960s as reported by Doran (2002), Jones What do scientists report who actually
lubricate its flow. The authors of this idea do (1995), and Sansom (1989). Since 1979 the specialize in sea level? According to these
not seem very familiar with the erosive microwave sounder units on NASA satellites specialists there is no way to predict,
power and characteristics of an active glacier. record declining temperatures. scientifically, any sea level rise in the 21st
The base of a glacier is charged with rocks Nevertheless, Gore and others have made Centur y. The International Union for
and debris stripped from its base and frozen much exaggerated claims regarding glacial Quaternary Research (INQUA) is a 75-year-
into the ice mass so that it resembles a giant calving in blocks the size of Rhode Island old scientific organization dedicated to
rasp constantly tearing, grinding, and eroding from the west Antarctic Peninsula. The researching global environments and climatic
its base and the sides of the valley. Meltwater peninsula is like a thumb trending northwest changes over the last two million years.
simply can not reach the frozen base of the towards Argentina. Because of past sea level INQUA has harshly criticized the IPCC for
glacier before becoming so charged with rise, the ice is anchored only on a small its handling of sea level forecasts: ignoring
debris and rock flour that it flows within the number of islands. It is underlain by ocean the scientists who produce most of the data
ice-forming internal stream deposits above and so is less stable than the main mass of and observations related to sea level and
the rock floor. Antarctica.The west peninsula does not show relying instead on unproven model results.
the same range of cooling as east Antarctica Nils Axel Morner, who until recently was
As glaciers retreat they leave extensive but, as we have discussed, air temperature the president of INQUA’s Sea Level
deposits of fluvio-glacial material, eskers in itself, does not determine glacial behaviour. Commission, states that sea level shows no
(stream deposits), kames (internal deltas), It is a simple matter to review the ice areal trend at all over the past three hundred years,
and terminal and lateral moraines. The U- extent maps showing the ice is expanding and satellite telemetry shows virtually no
shaped valleys and the mass of these deposits and thickening (Figure 6.3, page 32). change in the last decade.Therefore, the IPCC
is a testament to the erosive power of the Currently, the ice mass is at record levels models are totally without scientific
glacier. The downward motion of the glacier (see http://arctic.atmos. uiuc.edu/cryosphere/ objectivity or relevance . According to
is the result of the relentless power of ). What is the evidence for the National Morner, there is no fear of any massive future
gravity which comes from the elevation of Geographic statement: “If vulnerable parts flooding as claimed in most global warming
the snowfield accumulation area over the of the ice that blankets Greenland and scenarios.
exit point, which, in this case, is sea level. Antarctica succumb, rising sea levels could
Moreover, the base of the glacier is a zone flood hundreds of thousands of square miles A constant drumbeat of alarmism is
of permafrost extending into the underlying – much of Florida, Bangladesh, the maintained in the media, and once again, as
soil and rock. There is no potential slip or Netherlands – and displace tens of millions an example we can turn to the National
glide plane that can lubricate the glacier’s of people”. What credibility can be given to Geographic Magazine in the November, 2007
movement. The actual glacier flow velocity is this extraordinary claim? The critical word issue (The Acid Threat, p. 113). Having
still controlled by the vertical mass of ice is “if ” but what is the real probability? The attempted to convince us that we will drown
above the glacier’s baseline. If the velocity of Greenland Ice Cap has survived the previous in a new Noah’s flood, this article suggest
flow of the terminal portion of the glacier warming cycles and is still well beyond its that by the end of the next century the oceans
somehow exceeds the normal gravitational position at the time of the Danish will be so acidic they will be devoid of life.
flow rate, it should result in a large crevasse settlements in the Medieval Warm Period The IPCC argue that only a trivial amount of
or series of major crevasses at the transition (Tkachuck, 1983, p. 2). The evidence shows CO2 can be dissolved in the oceans, but, on
from the natural upper glacier flow, to the that Antarctica is cooling but it seems that the other hand, maintain this is enough to
so-called accelerated water-lubricated zone. the less evidence there is, the more shrill cause a catastrophe by dissolving all the
This has never been reported. and exaggerated are the claims. A case in calcium carbonate in the sea! The IPCC
point is the fact that Michael Mann (the author hypothesis requires very long residence
The entire thrust of the claims of Greenland of the now-discredited temperature hockey times for CO2 in the atmosphere of 50-200
Ice Cap accelerated melting are advanced in stick) and colleagues are now attempting to years, although there are numerous
order to support extremely exaggerated show, by statistical manipulation, that publications of isotopic analyses that indicate
claims of sea level rise – 20 feet (6.1 meters) Antarctica is actually warming, a premise of an average residence time of only 5-6 years
in the National Geographic article above. which even other global-warming activists (Segalstad, 2009).
Greenpeace has trumpeted levels of 5-7 are skeptical.
meters (16-23 feet), potentially correct if The National Geographic article is based on
the entire ice sheet were to disappear, but Sea level rise is always a good subject to get pseudo-science lacking any proper
even the IPCC do not subscribe to this level people’s attention, especially with the comprehension of physicochemical or
31
Figure 6.3. Figures documenting increasing sea ice around Antarctica after Parkinson (2002).The left-hand figure illustrates the length of the sea ice season for a period
of 21years (1979-1999). Purple areas indicate annual cover, while light blue are limits of winter ice.The right-hand panel indicates trends where ice days are increasing
(blues) and locations where they are decreasing. Parkinson points out that this is inconsistent with global warming theory.
biochemical nature of the oceans. In a very the biochemistry of these organisms, the assessment of world photosynthesis by
crude experiment, ocean water was acidified fixing of carbonate ions comes from phytoplankton is illustrated in Figure 6.5
by adding carbon dioxide until tiny, absorption of carbonic acid. The article also showing chlorophyll concentration in the
calcareous shells of dead copepods became illustrates the incredible biological richness world’s oceans.
corroded. This was then presented as of a drop of sea water, representing only a
evidence that the oceans would be totally tiny fraction of the zooplankton and The approach of the IPCC is to consider the
acidified if no steps were taken to curb the phytoplankton in ocean waters. The oceans as if they were dealing with a beaker
emission of CO2.The fact that this was totally illustrations demonstrate the great of lifeless brine lacking any biological or
without relevance to the real world’s oceans, abundance of cyanobacteria that, at the base sedimentological content. The live oceans
even as illustrated in this particular issue of of the food chain, fix carbon dioxide by have an almost infinite buffering capacity as a
National Geographic, was ignored. Warming photosynthesis, converting it to oxygen and result of biological and sedimentological
oceans give up CO 2 as it becomes less sugars required to construct and nourish the processes.We can show that all of the calcium
soluble, not the opposite as implied by the organism. Even more astonishing, in the light carbonate, as calcite or aragonite, deposited
“Acid Threat” article. Even when the errors of the “Acid Threat Article,” are satellite in the oceans is mediated by organic activity
within the article were identified in detail, images of extensive coccolithophore blooms with an immense capacity to buffer
there was no response from National off the coast of Ireland (Figure 6.4). Here atmospheric CO2. There are other extensive
Geographic, nor any corrective we have another example of the tremendous oceanic buffers resulting from
acknowledgement. This is a classic form of capacity of the live ocean to fix carbon sedimentological diagenesis which will result
censorship exerted by media generally, in dioxide and deliver the calcium carbonate to in the stabilization of oceanic pH. For
which only alarmist material is presented ocean sediments. Coccolithophore blooms example, anorthite felspar is typically
and those of us who retain our critical are not rare. They are widespread in the reduced to kaolinite, releasing aqueous
faculties are ignored. world’s oceans and now, because of satellite calcium ions available for absorption with
imagery, we have evidence of their extent CO 2 into exoskeletons of mollusks and
On page 109 of the November 2007 article and capacity to fix CO2. Blooms in the North crustaceans of the ocean shorefaces. In clay
is an absolutely superb photograph of a living Atlantic are recorded covering areas of rich waters, CO2 is absorbed releasing silica
pteropod. This very tiny planktonic organism 200,000 square miles, and this is only one of which may result in chert diagenesis but also
appears with its calcareous shell completely a rich variety of planktonic microorganisms provides silica for the endoskeletal
surrounded by ectoplasm, the living tissue which have the capacity for photosynthesis structure of diatoms and silicoflagellates. The
of the organism. It is within the ectoplasm and incorporation of carbon dioxide, often former are very abundant planktonic
that the pteropod secretes its supportive in the form of carbonic acid, to construct organisms forming extensive deposits in
shell, not in contact with the sea water. In their internal carbonate structure. A visual some deep marine environments. They
32
current atmospheric levels have been
reported (1,885 parts per million – Pagani,
2005) without injury to ocean life. According
to the ocean acidification theory, life could
never have evolved on earth! That this is
nonsense is obvious, but the constant
unqualified repetition in the media of
unsubstantiated claims of disaster raises
unwarranted concern among the general
public. This is particularly so when it occurs
in respected mainstream media outlets.
REFERENCES
Appenzeller, Tim. 2007. The Big Thaw, Ice on the
Run, Seas on the Rise. National Geographic, June
2007.
absorb CO 2 during photosynthesis and communities, it is apparent that the oceans Krabill,W., et al. 2000. Greenland Ice Sheet: High
contribute to the very large buffering capacity by controlling the amount of atmospheric elevation balance and peripheral thinning.
of the oceans. Since the oceans have the CO2 play a vital part in maintaining stable Science v. 289, p. 428-430.
capacity to absorb approximately 50 times conditions suitable for organic life on earth.
the amount of CO 2 contained in the It is well known that atmospheric CO2 has Moncton, C.W. 2007. 35 Inconvenient Truths,The
atmosphere, not including the immense been at much higher levels in the past. During Errors in Al Gore’s Movie. Science and Public Policy
contribution of the living biological the Palaeogene, values up to five times Institute. www.scienceandpublicpolicy.org.
33
Morner, Nils Axel. 2004. Estimating Future Sea
Level Changes from Past Records. Global and
Planetary Change, v. 40, issues 1-2, January, p.
49-54 New York Times, December 8, 2002
34
CL IMA
CLIMA TE CHANG
IMATE CHANGEEV II:
VII:
The Spin Cycle
by Dr. A. Neil Hutton
35
producing more powerful and more reducing deaths – the expectation would be Wang and his colleagues demonstrate that
destructive hurricanes. The press had that deaths should have increased as a result there is a link between typhoons and sea
another field day. In the meantime Landsea of population increase and increased surface temperature (SST), but not as a result
(2005) published evidence that hurricane urbanization in tornado-prone areas. of global warming. Rather, fluctuations in SST
activity demonstrates natural swings from caused by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
highs to lows over periodicities of 25 to 40 Although the recorded tornadoes have (PDO) and the El Nino Southern Oscillation
years. The evidence is records which extend increased significantly, it is very clear in Figure (ENSO) affect the number of typhoons
back for 150 years, beyond the decades where 7.4 that, as far as the major category storms, generated. When ENSO is in the cold phase
global warming can be implicated. Much has (F3, F4, and F5 on the Fujita scale – a scale with La Nina years, there will be more
been made of rising sea surface temperature based on the damage caused to manmade typhoons; when ENSO is in the warm phase
as a causative factor but this was thoroughly structures), there is no evidence of an in El Nino years there are fewer typhoons.
debunked by Klotzbach (2006) who increase in major tornadoes. As is the case Here note that, as we found with hurricanes,
concluded that sea surface temperature with hurricanes, the assumption that the cold phase induces more frequent and
change correlated only marginally with warming will cause more tornadoes is false. more violent tropical storms, completely
hurricane formation in the Atlantic Basin. The midwest United States is tornado-prone contrary to global warming theory. Chan
because there is essentially no topographic (2000) has also shown that tropical cyclone
The most telling evidence against rising sea separation between the tropical Gulf of activities – in frequency, intensity, and track
surface temperature as a cause for increasing Mexico and the cold of the Arctic. If warming – are unrelated to global warming.
frequency and intensity of hurricanes, comes resulted in tornadoes, the summer months Furthermore with Wang, he attributes the
from records of the British Navy, which June, July, and August would be the tornado patterns of typhoon activity to decadal and
because of commercial interests in the season. This is not the case as the season multi-decadal oscillations and variations in
Caribbean, kept careful records of the peaks in May when the jet stream shifts north ocean temperature. In Figure 7.5, the number
storms. These records indicate that during for the summer. Interaction of strong easterly of tropical cyclones making landfall in Japan
the Little Ice Age the region had nearly three flow of cool air from the jet stream interacts is shown with no trend linked to warming,
times as many major hurricanes than in the with the warmed air in thunderstorms. The but with very strong activity in 2004,
warming decades from 1950 to 1998. resulting rotation triggers the twisters. Like paralleling the very active hurricane season
Contrar y to the warming theor y, it is hurricanes, larger temperature contrasts in the Atlantic Basin (see Figure 7.2, page
contrasts in temperature and pressure which cause more violent storms. Therefore, 35).
produce the most violent storms. The bigger warming should cause the jet stream to
the temperature differences between the remain in northern latitudes longer, reducing According to the IPCC in 1996, “Most climate
equator and the poles, the more power is the number of violent tornadoes. models produce more rainfall over South
provided to the winds, waves, currents, and Asia in a warmer climate with increased
to the cyclones. As indicated by Figure 7.1, Finally on cyclonic storms, what about Asian CO2.” In its 2001 report, the IPCC said, “It is
warming is actually reducing the wind speed typhoons? Certainly the perception has been likely that the warming associated with
of hurricanes. created that typhoons will increase with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations
global warming but significant recent studies will cause an increase in Asian summer
The story on tornadoes is similar. It is show otherwise. Wang et al. (2008) report monsoon variability and changes in monsoon
claimed that they are increasing in frequency that of 1,845 typhoons occurring in the strength. Again we are dealing with models
and strength, but the reality is quite different. northwestern Pacific region between 1951 and not reality. Kripalani et al. (2003) studied
Cer tainly, many more tornadoes are and 2004 there has been a steady decline of the variability of India’s monsoons as the
observed because of the introduction of approximately 1 typhoon every decade, but earth has warmed since the Little Ice Age
Doppler radar, which has excellent ability to the greatest decline has occurred in the last and found that the IPCC models were wrong.
capture the signal of a tornado (Figure 7.3). ten years! The largest drop is recorded in As in many other climate systems there is a
Radar is the backbone of early warning the super typhoons (equivalent to categories distinct oscillation, over a period of 3-10
systems that have been instrumental in F4 or F5 hurricanes). years, during which rainfall fluctuates
Figure 7.3. The diagram demonstrates the annual increase in observed torna- Figure 7.4. The frequency of Category 3, 4, and 5 tornadoes in the continental
does in the continental United States. There is a very clear increase from 1950- United States. These are the most severe storms and the trend shows a de-
2000 but the increase is actually related to improved ability to identify a tornado’s crease in frequency and strength of major tornadoes. They account for less
signature with Doppler radar. The early warning provided has saved many lives. than 5% of the tornadoes in Figure 7.3.
Figure 7.4 shows that severe tornadoes have actually decreased.
36
“Natural Hazards” extraordinary statement of IPCC, Summary
12 published a special for Policymakers, Climate Change, 1995,
issue on extreme “Warmer temperature will lead to prospects
10
weather events and for more severe droughts and/ or floods in
8
global warming. some places and less severe droughts and/
None of the or floods in other places.” In effect, any
Number
37
over the central and eastern north Pacific,
appear to be the main drought-driving forces. Meltdown, The Predictable Distortion Chan, J. C. L. 2000. Frequency of Typhoon Landfall
The cold La Nina phase of the ENSO cycle of GLOBAL WARMING by Scientists, in Guangdong Province of China during the period
over the equatorial Pacific, and its continued Politicians, and the Media. Patrick J. 1470-1931. International Journal of Climatology,
presence, appears to be the most important Michaels, 2004, Cato Institute, v. 20 no. 2, p. 183-190.
precursor for drought occurrence.The warm Washington, DC, p. 73-109, and 179-194.
El Nino phase of the ENSO cycle is usually Changnon, S. and Changnon, D. 2001. Long-Term
associated with surplus precipitation during Unstoppable Global Warming, S. Fred Fluctuations in Thunderstorm Activity in the United
the grain-growing season. Khandekar Singer and Denis Avery, 2007, revised States. Climatic Change, v. 50, p. 489-583.
concludes that there does not appear to be 2008, Rowman and Littlefield Publishers,
any linkage between recent droughts and Chapter 9, p. 163-185 and Chapter 12, p. Changnon, S. and Changnon D. 2000. Long-Term
warming of the Earth’s atmosphere. 213-219. Fluctuations in Hail Incidences in the United
States. Journal of Climate, v. 13, p. 658-664.
With droughts come fire and, of course, the Both of these books are highly recommended
usual media claims of a fiery apocalypse for anyone who wishes to filter the hype Emmanuel, K. 2005. Increasing Destructiveness
driven by global warming (Herbert, 2002 out of Global Warming, especially that by of Tropical Cyclones over the past 30 Years. Nature,
New York Times). By now it should be no the Media. v. 436, p. 686-688.
surprise that the statistics show otherwise,
at least for the United States. Figure 7.7, There is no doubt that the IPCC have very Fauchereau, N., et al. 2003. Rainfall Variability
shows that the average acreage burned in skillfully manipulated the platform provided and Changes in Southern Africa during the 20th
the United States has decreased and by their UN mandate, with the very able Century in the Global Warming Context. Natural
essentially remained stable for the last forty assistance of the media. As each major IPCC Hazards v. 29, p. 139-154.
years. No doubt more sophisticated fire Conference rolls around the press releases
become more Herbert, R. 2002. New York Times, June 24th issue.
extreme: The Khandekar, M. L. 2004. Canadian Prairie Drought,
Associated Press, a Climatological Assessment. Alberta Environment,
March 12, 2009, http://www.gov.ab.ca/env/.
“Hundreds of
Scientists warned Khandekar, M. L. 2002. Comment on (world
today that global Meteorological Organization) Statement on
warming is Extreme Weather Events. EOS Transactions,
accelerating beyond American Geophysical Union, v. 84, p. 428.
the worst
predictions and Klotsbach, P. J. 2006. Trends in global cyclone
threatening to activity over the past twenty years (1986-2005).
t r i g g e r Geophysical Research Letters, v. 33, L010805,
“irreversible” doi:10. 1029/2006GL025757.
climate shifts on the
planet.” There is not Kripilani, R.H., et al. Indian Monsoon Variability in
Figure 7.7. The average acreage burned annually in the United States by
one single piece of a Global Warming Scenario. Natural Hazards v.
decade. Contrary to the press, there has been a distinct decline with stability
evidence to justify 29, p. 189-206.
through the last four decades.
such claims. None of
suppression techniques have played a role. the IPCC climate scenarios have ever Landsea, C . 2005. Hurricanes and Global
On the other hand, it is argued that, fire matched the climate data even at the low Warming. Nature, 438, December.
suppression has been counterproductive, end.There has been no warming this century;
resulting in denser undergrowth and deadfall the climate feedbacks assumed in Global Landsea, C., et al. 1996. Downward Trends in the
providing fuel for uncontrollable wild fires. Climate Models are incorrect; and satellite Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes in the
In fact the climateinfluencing droughts and microwave measurements of the Last Five Decades. Geographical Research Letters
rainfall are more intimately associated with troposphere have never observed the v. 23, no. 13, p. 1697-1700.
major oceanic cycles such as PDO, ENSO, warming predicted by the IPCC Climate
and the cyclonic oscillations in the Atlantic Models. Finally the Sun is in a quiescent mode Michaels, Patrick J. 2004.The Predictable Distortion
Basin. The role of warming in itself can not with 620 sunspotfree days versus an average of GLOBAL WARMING by Scientists, Politicians,
be detected in regional climate variations. of 336 days in the recent 20th Century. A and the Media. Cato Institute, Washington, DC.
minimum of this scale has not been observed
We find no basis for the claims of an increase since the 19th Century. Indeed, we may Singer, S. Fred, and Avery, Dennis T. 2007.
in extreme weather events, but what of experience an “irreversible” climate shift but Unstoppable Global Warming. Rowman and
claims, such as those of CBC and others, that entirely in the opposite direction from the Littlefield Publishers, Lanham, Maryland, revised
warming will result in species extinction, bold statements of the hundreds of scientists 2008.
epidemics, and killer heat waves. Suffice to in Copenhagen.
say that the basis for these claims is also Wang,Y. Li, C. Ren, F., And Wang X. 2008. Study on
based on poor research, lack of historical REFERENCES Climatic Characteristics of China-Influencing
perspective, and poor analysis and statistical Balling, R. C ., Jr. and Cerveny R. S. 2003. Typhoons and the Interrelations between them
treatment of results. It would be beyond the Compilation and Discussion of Trends in Severe and their Environmental Factor. Journal of
scope of this article to provide a full Storms in the United States: Popular Perception Tropical Meteorology v. 14, no. 1 p. 24-27.
treatment of the issues but excellent or Climate Reality? Natural Hazards v. 29, no. 2,
coverage is provided in the following texts: p. 103-112.
38
CL IMA
CLIMA TE CHANG
IMATE CHANGE EV III:
VIII:
Global Circulation Models
by Dr. A. Neil Hutton
39
What then are the climate models attempting D y n a m i c s
to show? Climate models are simply strings Laborator y. The
of computer code or algorithms which models attempt to
attempt to simulate the behaviour of the work from first
atmosphere. If the model does not match principles using
reality, they require modification. From a fundamental physical
scientific perspective, a climate model is a laws, thermody-
hypothesis in search of validation by namics, fluid dyna-
observed data. Normally, in developing mics, the carbon
atmospheric climate models, it would be a cycle, the water
standard procedure to hindcast the model cycle, and so on. In
performance against historic climate data. If turn, the first
a good match was attained for historic principles are
climate, the reliability of forecasts would be converted to
more credible. In fact, this has never been mathematical
done. This is because climate models depend equations or more
entirely on CO 2 as their climate change e m p i r i c a l
driver. However, according to the orthodox algorithms for a vast
global warming theory, preindustrial levels three dimensional
of CO 2 were monotonously low and array of grid boxes Figure 8.3. Global Temperature Anomalies: This figure is based on the Loehle
constant, as indicated by several ice cores representing the and McCulloch study of eighteen 2,000-year-long proxy studies from around
from the Antarctic (Hutton, 2009a, Figures global surface and the world, excluding tree ring studies (which have inherent problems). The
1-5). This presents a serious problem to the atmosphere . The evidence for these climatic cycles is of very high quality with the Medieval
modelers because there is a vast published computer generates Warm Period recording higher average temperatures than the Modern Warm-
literature (www.co2science .org) new values for each ing (after Loehle and McCulloch, 2008, Figure 2, page 97).
documenting cycles of warming and cooling grid box as the
coeval with the ice core data (Figure 8.3). model steps
The incontrovertible conclusion is either the forward in time by
ice core data is wrong, or CO2 has no role an assigned interval
whatsoever in climate variability. We have – 0.5-1.0 hour –
argued previously that the proxy CO2 values again and again
in ice core data are depleted, and are not through the
representative of contemporaneous simulated time
atmospheric CO 2 (Hutton, 2009a, p. 40). period. The
Here, fundamentally, is the disproof of the projected climate
entire global warming by CO2 theory. If the change is assessed
ice core proxy atmospheric CO2 values were by re-running the
plugged into current climate models it would models with
show continuous cooling from the Little Ice different levels of
Age (1650-1750) to the Holocene, some greenhouse gases,
10,000 years ago. From a wide range of aerosols, or other
geological, archaeological, and historical data factors assumed to
in literally hundreds of peer-reviewed papers, be involved in
this is wrong.The climate was cyclical through climate change. The
a series of warm and cold periods (Figure complexity of such
8.4) with many instances of temperature an undertaking is
Figure 8.4. Post-Pleistocene Climate Cycles since the end of the last glaciation.
exceeding our current maximum. c e r t a i n l y
There are 16 climate oscillations, with the warm cycles shown in pink and cold in
overwhelming. On
blue (source: http://www.co2science.org/articles/V11/N5/C1.php).
How is it that Global Circulation Models the other hand,
(GCM) have become the super stars of what is astonishing
climate research and are presented as is the data (listed below) fundamental to • The experimentally demonstrated and
evidence for the effects of warming even climate analysis that is not included. What observationally recorded nucleation
when contradicted by real data observations? this is analogous to is having a gigantic toy in of low cloud by cosmic rays – Not
The GCM are three-dimensional computer which fundamental parts, like the batteries Included;
models that attempt to integrate and project at Christmas, are not included. • The natural heat flux of the Earth – Not
into the future all of the major influences of Included;
climate. The list is extensive and the problem In fine print on the side of the GCM toy box • The heat flux through the oceans of
is so complex and massive that programs we find: some 64,000kms of spreading centres
can only be run on supercomputers, which and unrecorded subsea volcanoes and
means that only wealthy nations can afford • The Sun spot cycle – Not Included; fumaroles – Not Included;
to run them. The major centers are Britain’s • The dimensions and strength of the • Ability to understand the cause and
Hadley Centre, NASA, Goddard Institute for Heliosphere – Not Included; effect of the major oceanic cycles,
Space Studies (GISS), the National Centre • The AP progression Index (a measure such as the North Atlantic Oscillation,
for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and the of solar wind) – Not Included; the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or –
National Oceanic and Atmospheric • The strength of cosmic ray flux – Not the most profound of these – the El
Administration’s (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Included;
40
Nino Southern Oscillation – Not projections of the
Included. earlier observed
trend and the
Would you be prepared to buy this toy and projected increase
rely on its forecasts? Unfortunately we in CO 2 . The
already have. But what is the track record of computer models
forecasts developed by the GCMs. We have used lack any
already described forecasts which are climate variable
contradicted by observed data, such as the other than CO2 so
predicted increase in Asian Monsoon they can accom-
variability and strength contradicted by modate no other
Kripilani’s (2003) study, (Hutton, 2009d, p. trend. The orange
3), and IPPC models of predicted sea level trend signifies a
change not supported by observed satellite theoretical climate
data (Hutton, 2009c, p. 5). variability with no
a d d i t i o n a l
The most recent Intergovernmental Panel greenhouse gases
on Climate Change reports depend almost (CO2) or aerosols.
totally on computer modeling, and the The observed
projections are presented as validated temperature Figure 8.5. Greenhouse-model-predicted temperature trends versus latitude and
science, rather than poorly constrained projection (heavy altitude presented in IPCC-AR4, (2007, p. 675). The figure shows a predicted
projections for which the assumptions are black) extends to increased temperature trend in the tropical mid-troposphere of 1.2°C. In thirty
obscure and cer tainly inadequate . A 2005 and shows a years of satellite observations, this trend has never been observed (source: http:/
fundamental projection of the flattening curve.The /www.heartland.org/custom/semod_policybot/ pdf/22835.pdf).
Anthropogenic Global Warming Hypothesis further cooling of
is that the addition of CO2 to the atmosphere about 0.15°C from
will result in an increasing warming with 2005 to 2009 will
altitude, peaking at roughly 10km at about cause the exten-
twice the surface value. The model results sion of observed
are presented in Figure 8.5 as shown in the data to intersect the
IPCC report (IPCC-AR4, 2007, p. 675). If the predicted orange
theory is valid, then measured observational cur ve . The con-
data should confirm the model simulation. clusion is clear: the
They do not. Satellite data have never IPCC scenarios are
confirmed the projection illustrated in wrong. Dr. Syun
Figure 8.5. In contrast, observed temperature Akafosu of the
trends from the analysis of radiosonde data University of Alaska
show the reverse, a slight cooling trend with has made an
altitude (Figure 8.6). If we were dealing with analysis in which he
objective scientific analysis, this result would documents the
definitively falsify the theory. It has not. The control of the
IPCC cling grimly to one single line of multi-decadal
evidence, the weak correlation between oscillation on 20th
atmospheric CO 2 and the global average century climate. His
Figure 8.6. Actual data observations from radiosonde balloons versus latitude
surface temperature and that only since 1850, projection is
and altitude.The trends are derived from the Hadley Centre, Climate Research
while the planet was recovering from the illustrated with the
Unit and are an excellent match for similar US analyses. Notice that there is no
depths of the Little Ice Age. The inconvenient current downward
warming trend in the tropical mid-troposphere but a slight cooling (source: http:/
cyclical nature of the entirety of Earth’s cooling trend of
/www.heartland.org/custom/semod_policybot/pdf/22835.pdf).
prehistory is ignored. observed data
(Figure 8.9, page
The situation is similar if we consider the 42). The IPCC scenarios are clearly of the climate system could not be resolved.
projections for future climate from IPCC unsupportable as scientific evidence. No matter the refinement of the observation
models in each of the assessments reports network, or the increase in power of
(First Assessment Report, 1990; Second At this point it would be reasonable to computers, the average useful forecast is still
Assessment Repor t, 1996; and Third consider if forecasts, scenarios, or in the range of a few days.
Assessment Report, 2001) as shown in Figure storylines, as they have been variously
8.7 (page 42) (IPPC, 2007, Historical termed in IPCC reports, are science. The In addition to the sensitivity to initial
Overview of Climate Science, p. 98, Figure standard for an acceptable scientific conditions issue, is the fact that computer
1.1). Most observers would conclude that hypothesis, over the last 300 years of modeling is about the incremental
the IPPC projections do not correlate very scientific enquir y, requires that the linearization of a nonlinear dynamic system
well with the observed data. It gets worse hypothesis makes predictions that can be – one that is not in global thermodynamic
when future scenarios are added. In Figure subsequently tested. Hendrik Tennekes has equilibrium either within itself or with its
8.8 (page 42), the same data from Figure 8.7 argued, following Edward Lorenz of the surroundings. The linear modeling negates
is repeated, but now includes IPPC forecasts “butterfly ef fect ,” that meteorology was the reality of unconstrained turbulent flow.
out to 2025. These forecasts, now designated heading into an unsolvable dilemma since the In an attempt to overcome these difficulties
as scenarios, are essentially straight line nature of the atmosphere and the complexity the approach is to use ensemble forecasting
41
Figure 8.7. Yearly average global surface temperature observations versus the projections from
the First (1990 FAR in blue), Second (1996 SAR in orange), and Third Assessment Reports
(2001 TAR in green vertical stripes) as shown in the IPCC-AR4,2007, “Historical Overview of
Climate Science,” p. 98, Figure1.1. The best estimates for FAR and SAR are in solid lines, but this
estimate was not provided in the TAR. The annual mean observations are provided by the
heavy black dots which show little or no relationship to the model projections. The observed data
is dominated by cooling from the Pinatubo volcanic eruption in 1992, and the very strong El
Nino warming in 1998. The heavy black line is a smoothed version of the decadal variation
which shows a poor correspondence with any of the forecasts (source: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/
assessmentreport/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1/chapter1.pdf).
Figure 8.8. Compares the data from Figure 8.7 with the addition of predicted
scenarios derived from IPCC-AR4 (Ch. 10, Figure 10.4) to the year 2025. Multi-
model mean projections from the report are shown from 2000-2025 with the
scenarios B1 in blue, A1B in green, and A2 in red with the range of uncertainty
displayed in bars to the right. The orange (commitment) scenario reflects a
projection of temperature with no further greenhouse gases or aerosols. The heavy
black is the observed temperature, but extends only to 2005, since which time there
has been 0.15°C of cooling. This will cause the observed trend to drop and intersect
the orange projection assuming no CO2 or aerosols. This result invalidates the IPCC
projections completely, demonstrating that CO2 is not the primary climate driver
(source: http://rankexploits.com/musings/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/
ar4tarsar.gif).
42
Figure 8.10. The inadequacy of Computer Climate models is demonstrated by an
example from the U.S. National Assessment of Climate Change (NACC, 2000).
The diagram shows the predicted rainfall for 18 regions of the U.S. These results
come from two models. Note the huge differences between model results in mag-
nitude and even sign. For example, the Dakotas (Souris-Red-Rainy) is either a
swamp or a desert depending on which model is used. It demonstrates how
removed from reality the modelers are when they present results from which the
only conclusion is that the models are worthless (source: http://ww..heartland.org/
custom/semod_policybot/pdf22835.pdf).
Figure 8.11. Here is clear proof of the dangers of computer modeling even when it
includes the requisite estimate of forecast skill. The figures compare observations of
the past twelve sunspot cycles (upper figure in blue) with computer simulation of
solar processes developed by NCAR scientists (lower panel in red). The fit is almost
perfect (98%) and from this a forecast was made for cycle 24 that it would be 30-
50% more intense than cycle 23, peaking in 2012 with a sunspot number of 160 plus
or minus 25%. In fact, cycle 23 is still in a minimum phase with minimal cycle 24
activity. Far from being more intense, we are now at 637 sunspot-free days, a mini-
mum not seen since the 19th Century, and it is unlikely that cycle 24 will peak before
2014 with a sunspot number less than 50 (source: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/
05/30/scientists-issue-unprecedented-forecast-of-next-sun-spot-cycle).
deemed to be an acceptable result, which of fudge factors that are fitted to the existing News Service, www.umich.edu/news/index.
we are expected to believe. climate, so the models agree more or less html?Dyson WinCom05.
with the observed data. But there is no
Supposedly highly sophisticated climate reason to believe that the same fudge factors Essex, C., McKitrick, R., and Andresen, B. 2007.
models have been running for twenty years would give the right behaviour in a world Does a global temperature exist? Journal of Non-
now at tremendous expense. It has become with different chemistry, for example with Equilibrium Thermodynamics, v. 32, no. 1, p. 1-27.
evident that they have no predictive value increasing CO2 in the atmosphere. Models
whatsoever. In this regard, even when there do not begin to describe the real world we Hutton, A. Neil. 2009a. CLIMATE CHANGE III:
appears to be a forecast skill of 98%, the live in nor have they been able to describe Carbon Dioxide. Canadian Society of Petroleum
outcome can still be wrong. The National our climate history.” Geologists, The Reservoir, v. 36, issue 3, p. 38-43,
Center for Atmospheric Research produced Figs. 1-5.
a model which replicated the last 12 sunspot It might appear that we have regressed to a
cycles from 1880-2006 (Figure 8.11). On situation analogous to the oracle at Delphi Hutton, A. Neil. 2009b. CLIMATE CHANGE V:
this basis, cycle 24 was predicted to be the where the ululating sound emanating from Here Comes the Sun. Canadian Society of
most active in recorded history, 30-50% more the rock were interpreted by the high priests Petroleum Geologists, The Reservoir, v. 36, issue 5,
intense than the current cycle 23. Not only as they prophesied the future of the citizens p. 31-39.
is this forecast wrong, it could be majorly and the country. Are the General Circulation
wrong if the Sun continues in its quiescent Modelers now the oracular priests Hutton, A. Neil. 2009c. CLIMATE CHANGE VI:
state. So far cycle 23 has the lowest minimum prophesying global warming? Fearmongering. Canadian Society of Petroleum
since the 19th Century and is likely to have a Geologists, The Reservoir, v. 36, issue 6, p. 24-28.
very weak maximum: less than 50 sunspots REFERENCES
versus a forecast by NASA of greater than Akasofu, Syun-Ichi. 2008. Is the Earth Still Hutton, A. Neil. 2009d. CLIMATE CHANGE VII:
160. Clearly the assumptions that went into Recovering from the ‘Little Ice Age’. International The Spin Cycle. Canadian Society of Petroleum
the model neglected a fundamental cyclical Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Geologists, The Reservoir, v. 36, issue 7, p. 21-25.
element in the generation of sunspots. Fairbanks, http://people.iarc.uaf.edu/sakasofu/
pdf/Earth_recovering_from_LIA_R.pdf. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change –
Here the comments of Freeman Dyson, one AR4. 2007. Climate Change: The Physical Science
of the world’s outstanding physicists, seem Dyson, Freeman J. 2005.Winter Commencement Basis, Contribution of the Working Group 1 to the
particularly prescient, “The models are full Address, University of Michigan. U. of Michigan Fourth Assessment Report. Geneva Switzerland
43
IPPC-TAR, 2001, Climate Change: The Scientific
Basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the
Third Assessment Report. Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge.
44
CL IMA
CLIMA TE CHANG
IMATE E IIX
CHANGE X:
Economics
by Dr. A. Neil Hutton
In the tide of human affairs, perhaps there is Assuming that all of the signatories of the $75 billion over the next 25 years. In
nothing more dangerous than a consensus, Kyoto accord had actually adhered to their Australia, a staggering $22.2 billion is
a point eloquently expressed by commitment, although none have, with the allocated to budgetary assistance for carbon
Schopenhauer in the 18th Century, “There possible exception of Sweden and emission-related measures for the next four
is no opinion, however absurd, which men deindustrialized Russia, this would have years.
will not readily embrace as soon as they can resulted in a reduction in the World’s
be brought to the conviction that it is temperature of 0.1°C by the year 2100. This Initially some studies suggested relatively
generally adopted.” The legitimate concerns is an insignificant amount to which Canada’s modest costs per ton for CO2 sequestration
regarding the environmental health of the contribution would be so small that it barely (David and Herzog, 2001). A recent study by
planet have been totally distorted by an mattered. In the real world there has been a the Harvard Business School indicates
evangelistic media and the neo-religious drop in global average satellite temperature formidable costs of $150.00 per ton to scrub,
morality of the green environmental of 0.5°C. Therefore, the climate has achieved compress, liquefy, and inject CO 2. This did
activists, who claim that warming will be a a level five times better than the Kyoto target, not include costs for pipeline distribution
disaster. In human history warming never while atmospheric CO 2 continues to rise or storage facilities. This amounted to an
has been a disaster, but the economic effects significantly. One might think that this would additional consumer premium of 10¢/
of attempting to mitigate warming certainly be a wake-up call, if not for the green lobby, kilowatt-hr, about 2-3 times costs in earlier
will be disastrous. at least for the Canadian Government, but studies. The U.S. national average for power
they continue to make announcements of is 10¢/kilowatt-hr so that CCS including
By now, in this series of articles, it should additional climate change initiatives as though distribution and storage will more than
be clear that there is no substance to the nothing had changed. double consumer’s electricity costs.
global warming theory. This is after 20 years
of research, four major IPPC assessment Other than preserving an international high So we now have commitments by
reports, and the expenditure of untold profile as responsible World citizens, governments, to spend at least $100 billion
billions of dollars in North America and Canada’s actual ability to impact CO 2 on CCS, lacking any scientific evidence of the
Europe. Estimates indicate expenditures in reduction is negligible. While on a per capita accuracy of anthropogenic Global Warming,
the region of $30 billion in the United States, basis, Canadian emissions are relatively high other than a series of increasingly inaccurate
and some $15 billion in the United Kingdom (19 tons per capita, Figure 9.1, page 46) this IPCC forecasts based only on computer
(Lawson, 2008). Cer tainly, with some is a cold countr y, and we are a major climate models. Moreover, the total lack of
hindsight, this has been an extraordinary producer of hydrocarbons and coal. We rank logic in the whole endeavour is that the CO2
misapplication of capital. However, it pales fourth in the world on a per capita basis that we are trying to dispose of originated
in comparison to what is contemplated in (Figure 9.1, page 46) but, on an overall world in the atmosphere in the first place, and was
the misguided approaches to saving the basis, Canada accounts for only 2% of total sequestered naturally through geological
planet by reducing CO2 emissions. In some emissions (Figure 9.2, page 47). It is perfectly time to the point that the Quaternary period
instances it seems like ‘Alice in Blunderland’ clear that Canada’s commitment is simply too we now live in has an atmosphere with the
for some of the ideas are really farcical, but trivial to be of relevance without the lowest CO 2 levels of all past Geological
politicians are taking this seriously since participation of the World community. More History. If atmospheric CO 2 up to seven
they believe that is what the public wishes. impor tantly, the costs of attempting times the current levels were not harmful
Nevertheless, in their political hearts and increased mitigation are formidable and will to life in the past, there is no reason to
minds they realise that the task is essentially significantly damage the standard of living and believe that current levels will be now.
impossible but they must make the gestures economic activity of the nation.
with as little real action as possible. The notion that coal and tar sands are dirty
Perhaps one of the most extraordinary energy sources is based on the completely
Let us consider the Kyoto accord which features of the global-warming frenzy is the erroneous and completely unproven idea
Canada ratified in 2002 and in which the fact that governments have committed huge that CO2 will warm the atmosphere. If this
signatories undertook to reduce CO 2 amounts of taxpayers money to investigate had any real scientific basis and the dangers
emissions by 5.2% below 1990 levels by and develop technology for carbon capture of warming were real, then CCS may have
2012. and sequestration (CCS), but have not spent some merit. Beyond CCS we plunge into a
a penny on any level of due diligence to series of murky strategies whose benefits
The agreement called for stabilization of examine and verify the global warming theory are highly questionable and certainly highly
CO2 emissions by the year 2000. However, itself. An estimate of funds so far committed susceptible to economic fraud and scams.
the road to hell is paved with good to pilot projects and research follows:
intentions (or obfuscations). By 2003, Canada through the Federal and Alberta Here we refer to the system of Cap and
although the Canadian Government had Governments – $3 billion, the Department Trade, nicely defined as the tax that dares
allotted $3.7 Billion for climate change of Energy in Unites States on one project – not speak its name. The concept is that the
related programs; the end result was that $2.4 billion, Australia – $4 billion, EU – $12 government will set an absolute cap on
CO 2 emissions had grown by 24% above billion on eight projects, Norway – $600 national CO 2 production, after which
1990 levels and, by 2006, this had grown to million, and so on. In new measures before companies buy, sell, or are allocated permits
35%. Congress there is a commitment to spend to emit CO2. Over time the cap is reduced
45
Figure 9.1. National carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita. This shows Canada in fourth place calculated in 2004 at 14.5 million metric tonnes per capita, but
currently calculated to be 19 million metric tonnes per capita. Emissions are not usually monitored directly, but are generally estimated using models. Some emissions
can be measured with only limited accuracy. Emissions from energy and industrial processes are the most reliable while emissions from agricultural activities present
major uncertainties. Source:World Bank online data base: UNEP/GRID Arendal (http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/national_carbon_dioxide_co2 _emissions_per_capita).
46
to reduce carbon emissions. The US Congressional
Budget Office has calculated that the “TAX” would
amount to only $175.00 a year for a family of four, but
this is in the years up to 2020 and then things really
get serious. When our current politicians are drawing
their comfortable pensions, the average family of four
are facing $1,870 additional electric bills per family.
Under the new US Waxman Markey Bill this will rise
to $6,800 by 2025. This is an energy price tsunami that
the economy simply can not sustain. Furthermore,
the pain will not be shared evenly as it is relative to
the reliance of states and countries on energy sources
with different CO2 emission potentials such as coal,
natural gas, hydro, nuclear, and oil. The poor, however,
who have to devote proportionately more of their
disposable income to energy, have the most to lose.
47
transparency it was recommended that all of that produce significantly less methane per would no longer invest in renewable energy
the permits should be auctioned. The result? bodyweight than regular cattle. Thus the projects such as wind since they are not
The EU decided that 98.5% of the permits owners of fart-less herds will be able to sell economic (Tim Webb, The Guardian, UK. 17
should be allocated and a massive 1.5% carbon credits to owners of regular fart-a- March, 2009). Denmark has also indicated
auctioned. Here a cynic might well conclude lot cattle herds. One wonders what can be that their experience with wind turbines is
that politicians are unwilling to give up the achieved here on a personal basis if you have that, in fact, they increase emissions because
perk of being lobbied so that campaign funds the correct metabolism? The concerns about they require equivalent backup in
will be contributed. the use of fossil fuels has spawned a wide conventional generation and provide poor
range of alternative energy proposals. To economies in capital costs.
Another arrangement under the Kyoto this date none can compete with the use of
agreement is the Clean Development fossil fuels and without heavy subsidization In the United States, Boone Pickens has
Mechanism (CDM) under which, a country, that by government would never be undertaken. backed off a major investment in a proposed
is unable to meet its emissions target, can buy First up is wind power, which at first sight plan to build the world’s largest wind farm
‘certified emission reductions’ (CERs) from would seem like a natural contender and has in the Panhandle of Texas. Pickens cites the
developing countries instead. The certification received considerable attention and drop in oil and natural gas prices, difficult
of the reductions is, in theory, done by the investment. The fundamental problem is that credit markets, lack of access to transmission
United Nations, but in reality the system is the wind does not blow consistently. As well lines, and uncertainties regarding government
impossible to police. Various newspaper there are physical attributes of wind which tax credits. The American Wind Energy
investigations have shown the CDM did not are unfavourable. The kinetic energy of wind Association (AWEA) reported the industry
reduce emissions and were little more than a is determined by the specific mass of air (very invested $17 billion on new wind energy
massive scam (Davies, 2007,The Guardian, UK). light at 1.18 kg/m 3) times the cube of the capacity to create roughly 8,545 megawatts
In this same philosophy was the Joint velocity times a constant. That is to say of electricity. This would have the ‘potential’
Implementation mechanism in which countries E=C*M*V 3. The final term is the one that to meet the needs of 6.8 million American
with emissions below their Kyoto targets can creates the major problem since velocity homes provided there is equivalent backup
sell ‘carbon credits’ to developed countries cubed creates a variability that makes it capacity! There has been a major drop in
unable to meet emission targets. As it happens, impossible to estimate the number of construction as the industry awaits
Russia is the only developed country in this kilowatts that will be generated at any given clarification of new tax credit rules by the
position. Indeed, it has been suggested that moment, or the number of kilowatt hours in Obama administration.
Russia’s late ratification of Kyoto was a given period. Thus it is impossible to
motivated by the prospect of earning billions provide a production factor / capacity factor The story on renewable energy
of dollars selling ‘carbon credits’, not because for a wind turbine. It will always be technologies is rather similar to wind power.
of any innovation, but because of the collapse guesswork. An additional problem in practical Perhaps wishful thinking together with
of the old Soviet Military Industrial machine in operations is that turbines are shut off from government subsidies is the driving force in
the 1990s. Now Russia’s emissions are well the grid at wind speeds less than 20-30km/ these enterprises. The IPCC claimed in its
below the Kyoto 1990 benchmark. Does hr, while for safety reasons the units are Climate Change 2001 report that “known
Russia’s ability to sell credits now really change shut down at speeds over 60km/hr. Maximum technological options could achieve a broad
the level of CO2 emissions? efficiency usually occurs in the 50-60km/hr range of atmospheric CO 2 stabilization
wind speeds (Halkema, 2006). levels, such as 550ppm, 450ppm or below
It is unlikely that any of these schemes will over the next 100 years or more…”. The
make any difference to the climate, but the An excellent illustration of the problem is known technological options refer to
politicians and scientist have created a shown in Figure 9.3, which shows variations technologies that exist in operation or pilot
climate of anxiety and guilt. And like the in the power of a single wind turbine. There stage today. It does not include technologies
medieval church selling indulgences you can is clearly seasonality in the wind power but that will require fundamental technological
now purchase ‘carbon credits’ in order to even in the winter months, fluctuations from breakthroughs.
assuage your guilt by reducing your carbon a maximum 600kw to under 200kw can occur
footprint. This is a private sector response within a few minutes or hours. This is One of the most thorough reviews of the
to the emission issue. It has both a personal certainly not a reliable supply of consumer world’s possible energy future appeared in an
and corporate dimension: corporations can electricity. Building of a large number of article by a team of energy scientists drawn
claim to be ‘carbon neutral’ by claiming to turbines does not resolve the problem. from academia, government, and industry:
have purchased ‘offsets’ in the form of Figure 9.4 illustrates the power spectrum “Advanced Technology Paths to Global Climate
emission reductions elsewhere, or of CO2 from 7,000 wind turbines spread over several Stability” in Science’s Compass Feature in
absorption through the of planting trees. On thousand square kilometres from the North November 2002. The lead author was Martin J
an individual basis the schemes available and Baltic Seas to the Austrian-Swiss border. Hoffert, a New York University physicist. The
usually revolve around the planting of trees. Variations occur between 0.2 and 38.0of the conclusion of Hoffert and his team was that
Once again investigative journalism suggests grids daily peak load, creating real problems cutting CO2 would require Herculean efforts,
that there is a high level of fraud involved. in establishing a stable electrical grid. It also since CO2 is a key element of modern society
The trees allegedly planted, may not have demonstrates that distributing wind turbines that “can not be regulated away.” Furthermore,
been; if they have been, it was not on the over a wide area does not prevent extreme contrary to IPCC, they conclude that the
basis of new offsets, or the credit has been and random variations in wind power. The availability of CO 2 emission-free power
double dipped. Either way their carbon fundamental issue is that for every kilowatt requirements is not supported by the team’s
absorption is notional, unverified, and at best of generation by wind requires an equivalent assessment. In other words, the IPCC has made
some years into the future. backup of conventional generation. So why a supposedly scientific statement that is totally
increase your capital costs by building wind at odds with the realities of energy
Descending further into the realm of farce turbines in the first place? generation.
is the revelation that researchers at the
University of Alberta are developing cattle Shell announced in March this year that they The problems of renewable energy sources,
48
The problems for the other renewable
energy sources are very similar to wind. The
Hoffert team suggests that to produce 10
trillion kilowatt-hours per year from
biofuels would require 15 million square
kilometres of cropland, which is simply not
available. For example the use of America’s
high-yielding cornfields to produce ethanol,
instead of food, produces a net of only 50
gallons per acre per year after subtracting
up front costs for seed, fertilizer, fuel, and
processing. Thus in order to meet any
significant volume of the US consumption of
134 billion gallons of gasoline per year
through the use of corn ethanol, America
would have to clear up to 100 million acres
of forest land. The recent run-up in world
food prices creating a crisis in the developing
nations has demonstrated the failure of
subsidised ethanol production policy.
Figure 9.3. The figure demonstrates the variations in wind power of a single 600 kW wind turbine situated The Hoffert team also points out that, with
very close to the North Sea coast in the Netherlands, as measured over a full year (8,070 hours). Note the current solar panel technology to produce
highly irregular pulsating nature of the output. It is clear that the kinetic energy of wind makes the predic- 10 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity,
tion of output / production of a wind turbine impossible. It is always guesswork. Source: Halkema, 2006, p. 6, another 220,000 square kilometres or so of
Figure 1. land to accommodate the photovoltaic arrays
together with the land for the associated
transmission lines, service roads,
maintenance roads, and so on is required. If
one adds up the land requirements for the
low-density renewable energy technologies,
we are looking at continental land areas
equivalent to South America (22 million
square kilometres), China (10 million square
kilometres), and India (3 million square
kilometres). It is clear that current
alternative energy are not feasible without
major technological breakthroughs in solar
panel design and efficiency and in biofuel
technology, while wind power is simply not
economically viable.
49
politicians are diverting public attention and
major capital investment from the real
priorities for the future. Greater energy
efficiencies at all stages of our activities are
necessary so that we optimize the use of
fossil fuels, abandon the rash uneconomic
investments in so-called CO2 emission-free
renewable energy, and invest in research into
energy solutions that are economic and can
meet our future needs for energy. The
diversion of intellectual energy and capital
investment into the global warming scare will
be viewed with astonishment and disbelief
in the future. It also stands as a monument
to the need for intellectual freedom and the
ability to sustain open scientific debate.
REFERENCES:
Barnes, Greg. 2009. Climate Change Industry
Help a Bottomless Pit. Business The Age, May 30,
2009. http://business.theage.com.au.
50
CL IMA
CLIMA TE CHANG
IMATE EX
CHANGE X::
Afterword
by Dr. A. Neil Hutton
One might wonder how a society that could land use, crops, etc.), and, last but certainly nations of the Northern Hemisphere and
send men to the moon, explorers to Mars, not least, statistical analysis. The problem, in are so strongly influenced by the Urban Heat
and develop amazing remote sensing the beginning, was that this was never Island effect that the bias can not be removed.
technology is unable to develop an intended to be an objective analysis, and other Although it is claimed that the data has been
appropriate scientific evaluation of climate. disciplines were deliberately excluded. Led corrected effectively, the confidence in this
The answer is probably that there was an by the apocalyptical vision of Maurice Strong, assertion has been profoundly shaken, first
arrogant underestimation of the complexity the IPCC was formed under the United by Steve McIntyre’s work, which showed that
of climate, together with a naive attempt to Nations with the specific objective of proving the GISS data contained errors such that the
reduce climate to the variability of one minor that man-made emissions of Carbon Dioxide Thirties were the hottest decade not the
trace gas – ignoring all prior history of would wreak havoc on the world’s climate. Nineties and, second, the persistent refusal
climate variability and atmospheric CO 2 This was achieved through the masterminding of Dr. Phillip Jones of the Climate Research
content. of conferences in Stockholm, Rio, Kyoto, Unit, University of East Anglia, to release the
Johannesburg, Bali, and the coming Kyoto II raw data, which was the basis for the
The IPPC has created, with the cooperation in Copenhagen in December. HADCRUT3 global average temperature
of the media, the impression of thousands curve. This is a completely unacceptable
of committed objective scientists of The World Meteorological Association situation preventing analysis and replication
impeccable integrity. Supposedly, these through the auspices of the United Nations by independent researchers and makes a
experts, reinforced by extensive peer became the driving force in the process of complete mockery of peer review. But this
review, have a high moral intent to save the establishing that global warming was the is not the only incident where a refusal to
world from the potential Armageddon of result of human activities. While one might respect normal scientific protocols and
warming. The reality is totally different! The conclude that the WMA were exactly the transparency has occurred. The exposure of
IPCC gathered together many right people for the assignment, there is a the Mann, Bradley, and Hughes hockey stick
meteorologists, climatologists, environ- problem. Philosophically, the meteorological occurred only because, over the refusal of
mentalists, and political activists. These are profession is in the business of forecasting the authors to release the data, they were
the people claimed to be the 2,500 leading weather, and, therefore , take a finally legally forced to provide the data by
scientific experts constituting the consensus. forwardlooking approach to weather, and, the terms of their government research
In fact, in IPCC’ s Fourth Assessment, a head in turn, climate. Yesterday’s forecast is no grant. Furthermore, the fact that this
count shows that there were 1,656 authors; longer relevant. This philosophy arrived at a infamous graph was published and accepted
some of whom were involved in many parts time of tremendous developments in by the IPCC, and continued to be used years
of the report using given names in some technology, satellite imagery, Doppler radar, after it had been completely discredited
parts, initials in others, and an abbreviation and – perhaps worst of all – supercomputers. demonstrates conclusively the complete lack
in another. If one goes to the trouble of Despite the work of Edward Lorenz, (The of integrity and scientific objectivity in the
examining the author’s biographies, it Butterfly Effect, 1979), and the cautions of IPCC.
emerges that of the some 1,190 separate outstanding scientists such as Henrik
individuals who wrote the scientific part of Tennekes (1986, 1992), Freeman Dyson The totally political nature of IPCC was
the report, many were not scientists but (2005), and others (Hutton, 2009d) climate clearly demonstrated in the Fourth
were political and environmental activists. research has relied exclusively on Assessment report (AR4) in 2007 where,
For example, those who authored the computergenerated climate models whose having been forced to relinquish the ‘hockey
publication of the chapters on the health predictions prove nothing and are evidence stick’ – which was done without explanation
effects of global warming had no formal of nothing. – they then produced a curve starting in 1850
expertise in the chapters’ subject material (Hutton, 2009a). This was as if God created
(Lindzen, 1992). Indeed the published expert Science requires evidence derived from the world in 1850 and before that there was
opinions of tropical disease scientists were observation, measurement, and experiment. no climate. Of course, this extraordinary
ignored in a recurring and constant pattern Only two measurements have been manipulation was done in order to avoid
of IPCC repor ts. There was never a presented by IPCC, the rise of atmospheric acknowledgement that there were climate
multidisciplinary effort to determine the CO2 versus the ground-based global average oscillations comparable to and warmer than
oscillatory nature of climate change, its temperature curves, as presented by the those of the 20th Century. In Figure 10.1
history, and its principal drivers. Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) (page 52) are documented no fewer than 15
and Hadley Climate Research Unit climate oscillations since the last ice age. The
A proper understanding of climate requires (HADCRUT).The ground-based temperature selection of 1850 in the Little Ice Age was
an amalgamation of disciplines such as observation stations were never chosen only so that they could show rising
astronomy, astrophysics, solar physics, constructed for the purpose of climate atmospheric CO2 along with a temperature
geolog y, geochronolog y, geochemistr y, research. Apart from the fact that a majority recovering from the cold of the Little Ice
sedimentology, tectonics, palaeontology, of the thermometers are improperly located Age. But what of the climate of the last 500
palaeocolog y, glaciolog y, climatolog y, adjacent to heat sources (Hutton, 2009a), million years? Was it not cyclical? Were there
meteorolog y, oceanography, ecolog y, they also exhibit an extreme geographical not warm periods and cool periods – even
archaeology, history (of plagues, famines, bias as the majority of the thermometer greenhouses and icehouses and was this
economic data on agricultural commodities, records are located within the industrialized caused by atmospheric CO2? The answer is
51
criticized the reliance on computer climate the data. This provoked a request to view
models due to the lack of understanding of the agreements. It then turned out that some
climate systems, especially humidity and of the agreements were verbal and the
cloud. The JSER report indicates that the documents for the other arrangements were
models lack the input of fundamental lost during a move! This is the level of
processes so that they are unsupported scientific integrity and transparency in the
hypotheses presented as truth – no more IPPC, and this is only one of several other
reliable than astrology, according to one incidents.
author.
Unrest continues in the scientific community.
Meanwhile in the United States, it has In July a group of some 40 German scientists
emerged that the Environmental Protection from the European Institute for Climate and
Agency (EPA) withheld a report by one of its Energy forwarded a letter to Chancellor
staff questioning the validity of Global Merkel indicating that there is no evidence
Warming Science. Alan Carlin argued that to support anthropogenic warming and they
since EPA is ultimately responsible for therefore were requesting a complete
environmental policy it should not simply review of climate science and especially the
accept the IPCC data but undertake its own associated economic policies.
independent enquir y. The study was
suppressed and the author Carlin transferred In the United States, scientists are similarly
to other duties. The Carlin report is a sound challenging their Societies’ support of
and well reasoned document which can be anthropogenic global warming. The American
viewed at http://cei.org/cei_files/ fm/active/ Chemical Society (ACS, claimed to be the
0/DOC065209. The study was conveniently largest scientific society in the World) was
withheld ahead of the House vote on the shaken by the response of their members to
Waxman Markey Bill (Cap and Trade), which an article in their news magazine, Chemical
passed by a narrow margin. The bill and Engineering News, by the editor-in-chief
Figure 10.1. Post Pleistocene Climate Cycles since potentially would be the greatest tax increase Rudy Baum. The article claimed that it was
the end of the last glaciation. There are fifteen cli- in US history. However, the bill appears to increasingly difficult to challenge the
mate cycles, which are documented from archaeol- have little chance of passing in the Senate, consensus view of global warming despite
ogy; history; sedimentology; palinology; and oxygen, where the Democrats are deeply divided on the efforts of climate change deniers, and
carbon, and beryllium isotope studies. the issue and Senator Imhofe (Republican) is also that climate change deniers were
demanding an enquiry into the suppression attempting to derail meaningful efforts to
clear and unequivocal: there is no correlation of Carlin’s report. respond to climate change. The appearance
between atmospheric CO2 and Phanerozoic of the article was greeted with an immediate
climate. There is no correlation in the last The reliance of the IPCC on surface and overwhelming scientific rebuke from
decade; the climate is cooling while thermometer data and its lack of Baum’s colleagues. Almost without
atmospheric CO2 continues to increase. The correspondence with other observations exception the letters castigated Baum’s
UAH global average satellite temperature in such as the UAH Global Average Satellite climate change views, objected to the
the troposphere shows that the temperature data from NASA satellites or correlation pejorative term “deniers” because of the
is 0.5°C below the IPCC forecasts in AR4 with sun-spot cycle length from the Eighties holocaust connection, and, further, rated the
(Hutton, 2009d). This may not sound like a onward, has led to requests to review the editorial as “disgusting,” a “disgrace,” “full of
large difference but within one decade it is raw data from HADCRUT3, the data misinformation,” and unworthy of a scientific
substantial. Furthermore, the temperature interpreted by the Hadley Research Centre, periodical. Many writers called for Baum’s
is now actually lower than the IPCC forecasts at the University of East Anglia. This data set dismissal. Baum himself acknowledged that
in the AR4 report where it was assumed curated by Dr. Phillip Jones has been marked he was startled and surprised by the
there would be no further additions of CO2 by his consistent refusal over many years to contempt and vehemence of the ACS
(Hutton, 2009d). release the data. He will not provide the scientists to his view of Global Warming
computational algorithms used to process consensus. To view these letters go to http:/
Then there is the information from the rest the data, nor will he cooperate with other /acs.org/cen/letters/87/8730/ letters.html.
of the world that is not reported by the scientists or reveal any of the assumptions
western media in an unspoken form of he has made. He has even gone so far as to The American Physical Society has been
censorship. In Japan in February a report was indicate an unwillingness to cooperate with challenged in an open letter from 80 of its
presented by the Japan Society of Energy and the World Meteorological Organization. members to revise their National Policy
Resources (JSER), which acts as an advisory Jones’ determination not to reveal the data Statement on Climate Change. The proposed
panel to the Japanese Government. The suggests that he is aware that it will not statement simply removes anthropogenic
report concluded that global warming was withstand scrutiny. A scientist confident of warming as a causative mechanism of climate
not man-made. The report is a complete his work would be happy to cooperate. change . The recommended revision is
rebuttal of IPCC methods and conclusions. available at: http://icecap.us/images/ uploads/
In short, while CO2 is increasing the climate Now the determination of the academic APS_openLetter_07_29_09.pdf.
is cooling contrary to all predictions. The community is matching Jones’ obduracy and
authors concluded that there was undue so he is inundated by requests under the Then to Australia where we have a real
reliance on land-based thermometer data Freedom of Information Act. However, he scientist capable of independent analytical
with its bias induced by the urban heat island suddenly remembers that he had entered thought and outstanding scientific
effect and the highly skewed nature of the into confidentiality agreements with a scholarship who has wrought major changes
recording stations. The repor t bluntly number of countries and is unable to provide in attitudes down-under as a result of his
52
recently published book, “Heaven and Earth,
Global Warming, the Missing Science”. The
author Professor Ian Plimer, from the
University of Adelaide is twice winner of
Australia’s highest scientific honour, the
Eureka prize. The book is a masterly piece
of scholarship of multidisciplinary range and
breadth, fully documented by 2,300 peer-
reviewed references. This book is required
reading for anyone who really wants to
understand climate science and understand
the inadequate and scientifically
unsupportable claims made by IPPC reports.
53
whose volume is recorded in parts per
million. (Hutton, 2009b) The Sun has, without
question, been the driver of the Earth’s
climate for the last four billion years and, if
there are any doubts in this regard, the Sun
is demonstrating conclusively its dominant
role in climate. It is now in a quiescent state
not seen in the last 300 years. We have
reported in Climate Change v: Here Comes
the Sun (Hutton, 2009c), the role of the
elevenyear sun-spot cycle and its correlation
with climate. In Figure 10.2 (page 53) the Sun
spot cycles for the last 400 years are
reproduced. The correlation with climate is
compelling: the quiescent periods of the Sun
in the Maunder and Dalton Minimums during
the Little Ice Age; the obvious increase in
activity in the last part of the 20th Century.
Even the subtle cooling from the late Forties
to the mid-1970s can be observed in the Sun
spot cycles (Figure 10.3, page 53). This 30-
year cooling period is not indicated by
atmospheric CO2 nor is the cooling we are Figure 4.The diagram illustrates the remarkable behaviour of Sun Spot Cycle 23, which now has recorded
experiencing now in conjunction with the three years among the record ten low sun-spot years since the start of the 20th Century.The years 2007 (163
Sun’s quiescence. The Sun is currently at 723 days), 2008 (266 days), and 2009 (212 days and counting) give a grand total since the minima started of
Sun-spot-free days and counting. It can be 723 days.The average number of Sun-spot-free days for the last part of the 20th Century is 345 days and
seen in Figure 10.4 that this Sun-spot the general average is 485 days.
minimum accounts for three of the record
years for the 20th and 21st Centuries. stable so that any unusual events can be the case of the effect of CO2 on climate, the
Sunspot cycle 23 now most resembles cycle attributed to global warming. Climate, correct solution to the non-problem of CO2
3 in 1790, immediately preceding the Dalton however, is continuously variable just as we is to have the courage to thoughtfully do
Minimum from 1790-1835 (Figure 10.2, page experience weather. In this environment, nothing.”
55) near the end of the Little Ice Age, 1350- attempts to introduce data and logic have
1850. The Dalton Minimum coincided with a been treated with anger and hostility. It is REFERENCES
period of very cold winters. Historical common then to introduce an ad hominem Carlin, Alan. 2009. Comments on Draft Technical
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crossed the Mississippi River at St. Genevieve, lackey of the oil or coal companies, and attach for Greenhouse Gas Emissions under the Clean
200 miles south of St. Louis in 1799. The ice pejorative terms such as deniers, or skeptics, Air Act. http://cei.org/cei_files/fin/ active/0/
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sufficient to support the heavily loaded the scientific point. As more critical evidence
wagon train. The River Thames froze comes to light then grimmer and grimmer Dyson, Freeman J. 2005.Winter Commencement
regularly as did the Hudson River, enabling climate scenarios are posited, even where Address. University of Michigan. University of
people to walk across the ice from there is well documented contrary scientific Michigan News Service. www.umich.edu/news/
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1821, taverns were constructed in the middle find the energy and enthusiasm to spread World’s Historic Climate. Canadian Society of
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This is in order that we may be spared the
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54
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