Glenn Hegar Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts

July 20, 2020

The Honorable Greg Abbott, Governor

The Honorable Dan Patrick, Lieutenant Governor
The Honorable Dennis Bonnen, Speaker of the House
Members of the 86th Legislature

Ladies and Gentlemen:

The economic contraction associated with the spread of COVID-19 and recent volatility in oil markets
warrants an update to the Certification Revenue Estimate (CRE) we published in October 2019. We
now estimate the state will have $110.19 billion in General Revenue-related (GR-R) funds available
for general-purpose spending for the 2020-21 biennium, down $11.57 billion, or 9.5 percent, from our
October estimate. This results in a projected fiscal 2021 ending deficit of $4.58 billion, a substantial
downward revision from our previously projected surplus of $2.89 billion.

The $7.47 billion reduction to the projected ending balance from the October CRE is $4.1 billion less
than the $11.57 billion decline in estimated available GR-R, primarily due to revised projections of GR-R
costs to fund the Foundation School Program (FSP). Estimates provided by the Texas Education Agency
and the Legislative Budget Board reduced the GR-R costs for the FSP due to federal funding from the
Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act and increased projections of local funding
from property tax revenues. GR-R costs for the FSP also were partly offset by our upward revision of
estimated revenue accruing to the Tax Relief and Excellence in Education Fund from sales taxes collected
by online marketplace providers.

The federal government has provided significant funding to help state and local governments cover costs
associated with COVID-19, but not to replace tax revenue lost as businesses were forced to close or
reduce capacity to help slow the virus’s spread. As of this writing, no additional federal legislation has
been enacted extending benefits or providing more flexible assistance to states, and therefore this forecast
does not assume any such assistance.

In fiscal 2021, the Economic Stabilization Fund (ESF) and State Highway Fund (SHF) each will receive
$1.1 billion in transfers from the General Revenue Fund for severance taxes collected in fiscal 2020.
After accounting for appropriations and investment and interest earnings, we project an ESF fiscal 2021
ending balance of $8.79 billion. We expect severance tax collections in fiscal 2021 to drop significantly
from fiscal 2020, resulting in smaller fiscal 2022 transfers to the ESF and SHF of about $620 million
each. The SHF also will receive $2.5 billion from sales taxes collected in each year of the biennium,
although the final transfer from fiscal 2021 collections will not occur until September 2021, the first
month of fiscal 2022.

Comptroller.Texas.Gov 512-463-4444

P.O. Box 13528 Toll Free: 1-800-531-5441 ext: 3-4444

Austin, Texas 78711-3528 Fax: 512-463-4902
July 20, 2020
Page 2

This revised estimate carries an unprecedented amount of uncertainty. We have had to make
assumptions about the economic impact of COVID-19, the duration and effects of which remain
largely unknown. Our forecast assumes restrictions will be lifted before the end of this calendar
year, but that economic activity will not return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of this biennium.
The state’s economic output, employment and revenues will not return to pre-pandemic levels until
consumers and businesses are confident the spread of the virus has been controlled. Even then, it
likely will take some time to recover from the economic damage done by the deep recession.

Our outlook is clouded further by recent volatility in oil prices and production, which have been
unpredictable even by the standards of the industry. Collapsing demand for oil, combined with a
dispute between Saudi Arabia and Russia that led to an increase in supply, caused prices to plummet
in March. Oil price futures even turned sharply negative on April 20, an unprecedented occurrence.
Although prices have partially recovered from April lows, they remain well below where they were
at the start of this year. It also is unclear when Texas producers might resume production that was
recently reduced, and whether and how much bankruptcies, reductions in capital expenditures and
business failures might hinder production in the coming months.

Nor do we yet know whether, and to what extent, further federal assistance might be provided to
individuals, businesses and state and local governments. Federal legislation – including stimulus
payments, expanded unemployment benefits and the Paycheck Protection Program – almost
certainly prevented business and consumer spending from dropping even further, but many of these
benefits have expired or will do so in the coming weeks.

Our office will, of course, provide a new estimate for this biennium, along with our forecast for the
2022-23 biennium, when we publish the Biennial Revenue Estimate in January, prior to the start
of the 87th Regular Session of the Texas Legislature. In the meantime, I will continue to closely
monitor the Texas economy and state revenues, and will keep you informed of any significant events
as they arise.

Sincerely,

Glenn Hegar

Enclosure

cc: Jerry McGinty, Legislative Budget Board

 The 2020-2021
Certification Revenue Estimate
Revised July 2020
E
very revenue forecast is clouded by uncer-
tainty, but the current economic environ-
ment darkens this one further. This fore-
cast, a substantial revision to our October
2019 Certification Revenue Estimate, relies on a series
of assumptions about the future course of a virus that
we are only beginning to understand and that surged
in Texas in June, forcing a pause in the state’s partial
reopening. It remains unclear how long restrictions on
gatherings and business activity will need to remain in
place. Nor do we know whether there will be subse-
quent waves of positive cases causing economic activity
to stop and start repeatedly. Further compounding this
uncertainty are assumptions we must make about how
consumers and businesses will respond to the spread of
coronavirus in Texas, the U.S. and around the world,
regardless of official restrictions on economic activity.
In addition to the pandemic, oil prices and produc-
tion have been characterized by increased volatility in
recent months. Demand collapsed as the virus spread
across the globe, while at the same time, some promi-
nent oil-producing nations ramped up supply, leading to
futures market prices that fell well into negative territory
for a day. Though oil prices have since recovered, they
remain well below where they were at the start of this
year, and production in Texas has declined in response.
The federal government responded in the early weeks
of the pandemic, passing significant legislation that
provided substantial aid to individuals, businesses and
state and local governments. But some of that aid is set
to expire in the coming weeks, and much of the federal
support to state governments is restricted to costs associ-
ated with pandemic response. States are not allowed to
use it to replace revenue lost as a result of actions taken
July 2020 1
to slow the virus’s spread. It remains unclear if or when
further federal assistance might be forthcoming.
As a result of these and other uncertainties, there
are substantial risks to this forecast, on both the upside
and downside. If the spread of the virus slows or stops
sooner than anticipated, if consumers and businesses
return to pre-pandemic levels of economic activity more
readily than assumed, or if the federal government pro-
vides more aid, we may finish the 2020-21 biennium
with more revenue than projected here. On the other
hand, if COVID-19 case counts continue to increase or
accelerate, if there is a substantial new wave of infections
nationally or in Texas in the fall or winter, or if consum-
ers and businesses are slower to resume economic activ-
ity than we assumed, revenue collected this biennium
could fall short, perhaps far short, of this forecast.
Forecast Assumptions
The forecast assumes that most COVID-19-related
restrictions on business will be lifted by fall and economic
activity will begin to slowly return toward normal levels.
It assumes that there will be no further government-man-
dated business closures or limitations once current restric-
tions are fully lifted. It also assumes another economic
slowdown starting in July as a result of the recent surge in
COVID-19 cases, but no further waves of infections suf-
ficient to cause economic activity to stall as it did in the
spring of this year. It instead projects a slow return toward
normal economic activity starting this fall.
Nonetheless, economic output, employment and
state revenues will not return to pre-pandemic levels
before the end of this biennium. Individuals’ lingering
reticence to gather and the ongoing impact of unem-
ployment, bankruptcies and other signs of economic
 Certification Revenue Estimate – Revised July 2020  2020-2021

destruction associated with COVID-19 will remain a of economic growth for this year and next. The ever-
drag on the economy through the end of fiscal 2021. We worsening updates to second quarter 2020 real GDP
think it is unlikely that economic activity in the state growth forecasts exemplify the uncertainty surrounding
will return to pre-pandemic levels until people are confi- projections made during the pandemic.
dent that the virus’s spread has been contained. Low oil Exhibit 1 shows forecasts for second quarter annu-
prices also will hinder economic growth in Texas. alized U.S. real GDP growth from several sources. As
the pandemic’s spread in the U.S. became apparent and
An Uncertain Outlook states began to shut down much economic activity in
Economic output in the U.S. and Texas likely fell an attempt to contain it, forecasts in the second quarter
by historically large amounts in the second quarter of moved from projections of modest positive growth to
calendar 2020. Given the unprecedented nature of the modest decline, then to record-breaking contraction.
economic contraction associated with actions taken to By April, most forecasts pointed to a historic quarterly
slow the spread of COVID-19, forecasting services have decline in economic output, and projections continued
made numerous significant revisions to their forecasts to deteriorate as more economic data came in through
the end of May.

Exhibit 1
U.S. Real GDP Growth Forecasts, Second Quarter 2020
(Annualized Percent Change, Q1 to Q2)

Congressional Budget Office 19-May

Congressional Budget Office 28-May
Nat. Assoc. of Bus. Economists 10-Apr

Econ. and Strat. Resch. Group 13-May

Econ. and Strat. Resch. Group 12-Mar

Congressional Budget Office 24-Apr

Econ. and Strat. Resch. Group 18-Feb

Econ. and Strat. Resch. Group 15-Apr

Econ. and Strat. Resch. Group 15-Jun

Econ. and Strat. Resch. Group 21-Jan

Nat. Assoc. of Bus. Economists 8-Jun

Moody's Analytics 15-May
Moody's Analytics 15-Mar
Moody's Analytics 15-Feb

Moody's Analytics 15-Apr

Moody's Analytics 11-Jun

JPMorgan Chase 26-Mar
Morgan Stanley 23-Mar

Goldman Sachs 13-May

Goldman Sachs 20-Mar
Goldman Sachs 23-Mar

Bank of America 25-Jun

Moody's Analytics 7-Jul

Deutsche Bank 11-May
JPMorgan Chase 9-Apr
Goldman Sachs 9-Apr

Goldman Sachs 4-Jul

Reuters Poll 14-May
Reuters Poll 13-Mar

Comerica Inc. 8-Jun

Wells Fargo 16-Mar

IHS Markit 15-May

IHS Markit 10-Mar

Reuters Poll 3-Apr

IHS Markit 10-Apr

SPGlobal 17-Mar

IHS Markit 4-Jun

IHS Markit 6-Jul

KITCO 17-Mar

CNBC 29-Apr
Fitch 3-Apr

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

-50%

Note: The Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts would like to thank the New Jersey State Treasurer’s Office of Revenue and Economic Analysis for providing sources for many of
the estimates in Exhibit 1, which is similar to a chart in its May 2020 Report on the Financial Condition of the State Budget for the Years 2020 and 2021.
(https://www.nj.gov/treasury/omb/publications/NJ-Financial-Condition.pdf)

2 July 2020
 Certification Revenue Estimate – Revised July 2020
Exhibit 2
Average Texas Real GDP Growth Forecasts, Second Quarter 2020
(Annualized Percent Change, Q1 to Q2)
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
-35%
-40%
JANUARY FEBRUARY
SOURCES: IHS Markit, Moody’s Analytics and Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts.
Exhibit 2 shows the average forecast for Texas real
GDP growth in the second quarter, taken from two
forecasting services to which we subscribe. These follow
a similar pattern to the U.S. forecasts, with estimates in
January and February projecting modest growth, fol-
lowed by successive downward revisions in the following
months before improving slightly in June.
Uncertainty about how future economic activ-
ity might be affected by the spread of COVID-19 is
exacerbated by inherent oil price volatility and its con-
sequences in Texas, which is far and away the nation’s
leading oil-producing state. Oil and natural gas prices
can be unpredictable even when the overall economy is
growing steadily. Recent events have only added to the
uncertainty surrounding energy prices. This year, we
have already seen unprecedented price swings even by
the volatile standards of oil price changes. Thanks to a
sudden collapse in global demand for oil, coupled with
 2020-2021
MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE
a disagreement between Saudi Arabia and Russia about
production cuts that led to an anticipated increase in
supply, oil prices fell sharply in March and then again
in April. As NYMEX futures contracts for May deliv-
ery were about to roll over to June contracts, NYMEX
prices turned negative, falling to about -$40 per barrel
on April 20.
Exhibit 3 shows the February oil price forecast from
the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA)
Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The NYMEX
price history for March through June, compared with
the EIA February forecast, shows how substantially actu-
al oil prices may deviate from forecasts, even in the short
run. EIA’s February forecast had a 95 percent confidence
interval, based on NYMEX futures prices, with lower
and upper bounds for average April prices of $39.95
and $64.50, respectively. The average NYMEX price for
April was $16.70.
July 2020 3
 Certification Revenue Estimate – Revised July 2020
Exhibit 3
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Price and NYMEX Futures Price
$100
$90
$80
$70
Dollars per Barrel
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the five trading days ending February 6, 2020. Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in
near-the-money options contracts.
SOURCES: U.S. Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2020, and CME Group.
Our forecast assumes average prices in fiscal 2021
of about $41 per barrel and lower average production
than in fiscal 2020, leading to a 36 percent drop in oil
production tax revenues from the first to the second year
of this biennium. Natural gas production is now closely
tied to oil production in Texas, given the prevalence of
associated gas produced by oil wells. We thus expect
natural gas production and tax revenue to decline in fis-
cal 2021.
Many sources of revenue in Texas, especially tax rev-
enue, are correlated with various indicators of economic
growth, but those correlations may not be as strong as in
the past. While we expect economic growth will return
– and likely already has – after a historic contraction
during the second quarter of this calendar year, some tax
revenues may be slower to respond than has been the
case in the wake of previous recessions or natural disas-
ters. We anticipate, for example, that travel, particularly
business travel, is likely to remain curtailed at least
through the end of this biennium, which could affect
4 July 2020
 2020-2021
STEO FORECAST
NYMEX FUTURES PRICE
95% NYMEX futures price
confidence interval
upper and lower bound
ACTUAL AVERAGE PRICE
APRIL 2020 / $16.70
2020 2021
collections of hotel taxes, motor vehicle rental taxes,
mixed beverage taxes and even sales taxes, particularly if
events that draw out-of-state visitors are canceled.
To the extent people are reluctant to resume activi-
ties where crowds may be present, tax revenue from
restaurants, bars, sporting events, concerts, festivals and
the like will continue to fall short of prior expectations.
We do not anticipate such activity to return to pre-
pandemic levels this biennium, and our forecast reflects
that assumption.
A Word of Caution About
Economic Data
In the coming months, some economic indicators
will establish new records for rates of growth. Those
records, however, will be made possible by the unprec-
edented declines earlier this year, and the rebound will
still leave many measures of economic health below their
pre-pandemic levels. This already has happened, for
example, with U.S. and Texas employment, as can be
 Certification Revenue Estimate – Revised July 2020  2020-2021

Exhibit 4
Percent Change in Texas Employment During Recessions
Percent Change in U.S. Employment 2020 Recession
Months Since Employment Peak
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43

0%
-1%
-2%
Percent Change in Employment

-3%
-4%
-5%
-6%
-7% 1982-1984
-8% 1985-1988
2001-2004
-9%
2008-2011
-10% 2020
-11% U.S. 2020
-12%
-13%
-14%
-15%

SOURCES: Texas Workforce Commission, U.S. Department of Labor, Moody’s Analytics and Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts.

seen in Exhibit 4. Texas added a record-high 250,100 months. Thus, even if this turns out to be easily the
jobs in May, an increase of more than 2 percent from shortest recession on record with robust growth going
April. But this followed a loss of more than 1.4 million forward, there will still be a long march before enough
jobs in March and April, a drop of nearly 11 percent Texans have found jobs for total employment to match
from peak employment in February. Despite the record February of this year.
increase in May employment, there were nearly 1.2 mil-
lion fewer Texans employed than just three months ear- Revenue
lier. U.S. employment has followed a similar pattern. The state of Texas will have an estimated $110.19
Exhibit 4 also demonstrates how much more quickly billion available for general-purpose spending in the
Texas and U.S. employment fell compared to previous 2020-21 biennium, 0.8 percent less than in 2018-19
recessions. Texas lost far more jobs in just two months and down $11.57 billion, or 9.5 percent, from our
than were cumulatively lost over the many months it October 2019 estimate. This figure represents the sum
took to get from peak to trough in prior recessions. of the 2018-19 ending balance and tax and non-tax
During the recession caused by the 2007-09 financial revenue collections in 2020-21, less revenue set aside
crisis, it took Texas employment 16 months to bot- for transfers to the Economic Stabilization Fund (ESF)
tom out, at 4 percent below its pre-recession peak. This and State Highway Fund (SHF) and adjustments to
year, employment fell by nearly 11 percent in just two General Revenue-dedicated account balances. In all,

July 2020 5
 Certification Revenue Estimate – Revised July 2020  2020-2021

the state is expected to collect $265.84 billion for all
state funds in 2020-21.
The state’s tax system is the main source of General
Revenue-related (GR-R) funding. Tax collections in
2020-21 will generate $94.12 billion, while non-tax rev-
enue sources will produce an additional $14.71 billion.
Factoring in the estimated $4.72 billion ending balance
carried forward from 2018-19, these three sources will
total $113.55 billion. Against this amount, $3.44 billion
must be placed in reserve for future transfers to the ESF
and the SHF, and $68 million must be added for vari-
ous adjustments to General Revenue-dedicated account
balances (Table 1). GR-R spending is expected to total
$114.77 billion in the 2020-21 biennium (Table 2). Sub-
tracting this amount from the projected $110.19 billion
available for general-purpose spending leaves an estimated
2020-21 ending deficit of $4.58 billion (Table 3).
The expected drop in the GR-R ending balance is
mitigated by significant reductions in projected state
costs associated with the Foundation School Program
(FSP), based on estimates provided by the Texas Educa-
tion Agency and the Legislative Budget Board. Some
of the reduction is attributable to more than $1 billion
in increased federal funding used in lieu of general rev-
enue, and some is from lower state costs associated with
higher property values than previously forecast and other
adjustments to factors that determine state funding for
public schools. Revenue from sales taxes collected by
online marketplace providers, dedicated to the Tax Relief
and Excellence in Education Fund, also has exceeded
previous expectations, reducing the draw on general rev-
enue funds for the FSP.
In fiscal 2021, the ESF and SHF each will receive
$1.1 billion in transfers from the General Revenue
Fund for severance taxes collected in fiscal 2020. After
accounting for appropriations and investment and
interest earnings, we project an ESF fiscal 2021 ending
balance of $8.79 billion. We expect severance tax col-
lections in fiscal 2021 to drop significantly from fiscal
2020, resulting in smaller fiscal 2022 transfers to the
ESF and SHF of about $620 million each. The SHF
also will receive $2.5 billion from sales tax collections
both years of the biennium, though the final transfer
from fiscal 2021 collections will not occur until Septem-
ber 2021, the first month of fiscal 2022.
In projecting the ending balance of GR-R funds,
we have not included the impact of instructions from
the Governor, Lieutenant Governor and Speaker of the
House that most agencies reduce spending by 5 percent
of 2020-21 GR-R appropriations. To the extent those
savings are realized, the projected ending balance short-
fall will be reduced.

Note: This report contains estimates and projections that are based on available information, assumptions and estimates
as of the date of the forecasts upon which they are based. Assumptions involve judgments about future economic and
market conditions and events that are difficult to predict. Actual results could differ from those predicted, and the
difference could be material.

The spreadsheets in this report are available in accessible data form (Excel) at https://comptroller.texas.gov/transparency/
reports/certification-revenue-estimate/2020-21-update/docs/cre-2020-21-update.xlsx.

6 July 2020
 Certification Revenue Estimate – Revised July 2020  2020-2021

TABLE 1
General Revenue-Related Funds, by Source and Biennium
(In Millions of Dollars)
Percent
2018-19 2020-21 Change
TAX COLLECTIONS
Sales Taxes $ 60,727 $ 60,585 (0.2) %
Motor Vehicle Sales and Rental Taxes 9,898 8,609 (13.0)
Motor Fuel Taxes 1,989 1,829 (8.0)
Franchise Tax 5,792 5,704 (1.5)
Oil Production Tax 7,278 5,030 (30.9)
Insurance Taxes 5,105 5,377 5.3
Cigarette and Tobacco Taxes 1,156 1,093 (5.4)
Natural Gas Production Tax 3,117 1,815 (41.8)
Alcoholic Beverages Taxes 2,661 2,135 (19.8)
Hotel Occupancy Tax 1,237 837 (32.4)
Utility Taxes 924 927 0.3
Other Taxes 419 182 (56.6)
TOTAL TAX COLLECTIONS $ 100,304 $ 94,124 (6.2) %

NON-TAX COLLECTIONS
Licenses, Fees, Fines, and Penalties 2,827 2,560 (9.5) %
State Health Service Fees and Rebates 2,317 1,957 (15.5)
Net Lottery Proceeds 2,908 3,071 5.6
Land Income 4 17 339.2
Interest and Investment Income 2,934 3,434 17.1
Settlements of Claims 1,135 1,077 (5.1)
Escheated Estates 1,330 1,380 3.8
Sales of Goods and Services 261 264 1.2
Other Revenue 1,003 949 (5.4)
TOTAL NON-TAX COLLECTIONS $ 14,718 $ 14,709 (0.1) %

TOTAL NET REVENUE $ 115,022 $ 108,833 (5.4) %

BALANCES AND ADJUSTMENTS

Beginning Balance in Fund 1 $ 618 $ 4,290
Beginning Balances in Funds 2 and 3 266 431
Change in GR-Dedicated Account Balances 1,288 68
Reserve for Transfers to Economic Stabilization
and State Highway Funds (6,099) (3,437)
TOTAL BALANCES AND ADJUSTMENTS $ (3,927) $ 1,352

TOTAL GENERAL REVENUE-RELATED FUNDS

AVAILABLE FOR CERTIFICATION $ 111,095 $ 110,186 (0.8) %

Note: Totals may not sum because of rounding.

SOURCE: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts.

July 2020 7
 Certification Revenue Estimate – Revised July 2020  2020-2021

TABLE 2
General Revenue-Related Spending in the 2020-21 Biennium
(In Millions of Dollars)

General Appropriations Act* $ 118,859

Method of Finance Reclassifications and Other Adjustments, net** (4,271)
Emergency Appropriations and Reductions, and Other Legislation Making Appropriations, net*** 180
TOTAL $ 114,769

* Conference Committee Report for HB 1, 86th Legislature, Regular Session.

** Includes net amounts associated with the method of finance reclassification in HB 1 and also includes a reduction in
General Revenue costs as a result of: (1) a revised estimate of local property tax revenue, (2) federal relief funds used
in lieu of state funds, (3) revisions of estimated revenue to the Property Tax Relief and Tax Reduction and Excellence
in Education Funds and (4) adjustments to fiscal year end settle-up payments to the Texas Retirement System and other
fiscal year end payments.
*** Includes appropriations made in SB 500 and HB 4071, 86th Legislature, Regular Session.
Note: Totals may not sum because of rounding.
SOURCE: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts.

8 July 2020
 Certification Revenue Estimate – Revised July 2020  2020-2021

TABLE 3
General Revenue-Related Balances and Available Revenue
(In Millions of Dollars)

FISCAL 2020 BALANCES

Beginning General Revenue Fund Cash $ 8,412
Less: Dedicated Oil Overcharge Account (80)
Less: Dedicated Lottery Account (239)
Less: Texas Enterprise Account (269)
Less: Statewide Electronic Filing Account (17)
Less: Governor's University Research Initiative Account (84)
Less: Constitutionally Dedicated Victims of Crime Accounts (72)
Less: Texas Military Revolving Account (0)
Less: Federal Elections Improvement Account (24)
Less: Judicial and Court Personnel Training Fund Account (5)
Less: BP Oil Spill Fund Account (0)
Less: Reserve for Economic Stabilization and State Highway Funds Transfer (3,331)
Beginning Balances in Funds 2 and 3 431
BALANCES AVAILABLE FOR CERTIFICATION $ 4,721

FISCAL 2020-21 REVENUES

Estimated Tax Collections $ 94,124
Estimated Other Revenue 14,709
TOTAL ESTIMATED NET REVENUE $ 108,833

FISCAL 2020-21 OTHER ADJUSTMENTS

Change in Dedicated General Revenue Account Balances $ 68
Reserve for Economic Stabilization and State Highway Funds Transfers (3,437)
$ (3,368)

TOTAL FISCAL 2020-21 ESTIMATED AVAILABLE REVENUE AND BALANCES $ 110,186

Less: Fiscal 2020-21 Estimated Expenditures (114,769)

FISCAL 2020-21 ENDING CERTIFICATION BALANCE $ (4,583)

Note: Totals may not sum because of rounding.

SOURCE: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts.

July 2020 9
 Certification Revenue Estimate – Revised July 2020  2020-2021

TABLE 4
Texas Economic History and Outlook for Fiscal Years 2012-2021
Summer 2020 Forecast

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020* 2021*
TEXAS ECONOMY
Real Gross Domestic Product (Billion 2012 $) 1,395 1,460 1,505 1,586 1,599 1,631 1,695 1,770 1,703 1,693
Annual percent change 4.9 4.7 3.1 5.4 0.8 2.0 3.9 4.4 (3.8) (0.6)

Gross Domestic Product (Billion Current $) 1,390 1,482 1,559 1,574 1,557 1,636 1,770 1,868 1,787 1,789
Annual percent change 6.4 6.6 5.2 1.0 (1.1) 5.1 8.2 5.5 (4.3) 0.1

Personal Income (Billion Current $) 1,110 1,156 1,225 1,280 1,270 1,333 1,426 1,503 1,560 1,543
Annual percent change 7.0 4.1 6.0 4.5 (0.7) 5.0 7.0 5.4 3.8 (1.1)

Nonfarm Employment (Thousands) 10,825 11,163 11,493 11,821 11,975 12,168 12,437 12,733 12,434 12,437
Annual percent change 2.6 3.1 3.0 2.9 1.3 1.6 2.2 2.4 (2.3) 0.0

Resident Population (Thousands) 26,027 26,436 26,905 27,403 27,855 28,245 28,589 28,950 29,293 29,631
Annual percent change 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2

Unemployment Rate (Percent) 7.0 6.4 5.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 3.9 3.6 7.3 7.9

Oil Price (NYMEX; $ per Barrel) $ 94.28 $ 93.65 $ 101.05 $ 64.94 $ 41.40 $ 48.77 $ 60.58 $ 59.62 $ 45.00 $ 41.00

Natural Gas Price (NYMEX; $ per MCF) $ 3.10 $ 3.48 $ 4.18 $ 3.34 $ 2.30 $ 3.04 $ 2.88 $ 2.99 $ 2.10 $ 2.45

U.S. ECONOMY
Real Gross Domestic Product (Billion 2012 $) 16,138 16,389 16,792 17,322 17,600 17,984 18,523 18,963 17,962 18,115
Annual percent change 2.3 1.6 2.5 3.2 1.6 2.2 3.0 2.4 (5.3) 0.8

Consumer Price Index (1982-84=100) 228.5 232.3 236.0 236.8 238.9 243.8 249.7 254.4 257.5 260.7
Annual percent change 2.4 1.6 1.6 0.3 0.9 2.1 2.4 1.9 1.2 1.2

Personal Consumption Expenditures Index

(2012=100) 99.6 101.0 102.6 103.0 103.7 105.4 107.6 109.3 110.3 111.0
Annual percent change 2.1 1.5 1.5 0.4 0.7 1.7 2.1 1.5 0.9 0.7

Prime Interest Rate (Percent) 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.9 4.7 5.4 3.9 3.3

* Estimated or projected.
SOURCES: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, and IHS Markit.

10 July 2020
 Certification Revenue Estimate – Revised July 2020  2020-2021

TABLE A-1
Estimated General Revenue-Related Balances, Revenue,
Disbursements, and Appropriation Authority
Thousands of Dollars
2020 2021
REVENUE AND BEGINNING FUND BALANCES
General Revenue-Related Adjusted Fund Balance* $ 4,720,816 $ (679,132)
General Revenue-Related Revenue** 55,846,136 52,987,023
Adjustment to Dedicated Account Balances 34,092 34,092
TOTAL REVENUE AND BEGINNING FUND BALANCES $ 60,601,043 $ 52,341,982

PROBABLE DISBURSEMENTS AND OTHER ADJUSTMENTS

Disbursements for Foundation School Programs $ 19,492,230 $ 18,653,232
State Technology and Instructional Materials Disbursements 1,091,430 10,000
Other Probable Disbursements 38,500,243 37,021,551
Reserve for Transfers to the Economic Stabilization and State Highway Funds 2,196,272 1,240,322
TOTAL PROBABLE DISBURSEMENTS AND OTHER ADJUSTMENTS $ 61,280,176 $ 56,925,105

ESTIMATED ENDING CERTIFICATION BALANCE, AUGUST 31 $ (679,132) $ (4,583,122)

APPROPRIATION AUTHORITY
Prior-Year Authority $ 2,642,040
Current-Year Authority 59,083,903
TOTAL APPROPRIATION AUTHORITY $ 61,725,943

* Excludes constitutionally restricted accounts, dedicated lottery proceeds, oil overcharge and other general revenue-dedicated
account balances that are not available for certification.
** Excludes constitutionally restricted motor fuel, sales and motor vehicle sales taxes transfers to the State Highway Fund.
Note: Totals may not sum because of rounding.
SOURCE: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts.

July 2020 11
 Certification Revenue Estimate – Revised July 2020  2020-2021

TABLE A-2
Estimated General Revenue-Related Revenue and Balances
Available for Certification
Thousands of Dollars
2018-19 2020-21
BEGINNING FUND BALANCES
Consolidated General Revenue Fund Adjusted Balance $ 617,699 $ 4,289,697
Available School Fund Balance 29,122 58,188
State Technology and Instructional Materials Fund Balance 236,617 372,930
TOTAL BEGINNING FUND BALANCES $ 883,438 $ 4,720,816

REVENUE
General Revenue Fund $ 109,175,823 $ 102,148,502
Available School Fund* 2,778,223 3,416,706
State Technology and Instructional Materials Fund 29,315 25,026
Foundation School Account 3,038,825 3,242,925
TOTAL REVENUE $ 115,022,185 $ 108,833,159

OTHER ADJUSTMENTS
Change in General Revenue-Dedicated Account Balances $ 1,288,263 $ 68,183
Reserve for Transfers to the Economic Stabilization and State Highway Funds (6,098,871) (3,436,594)
TOTAL OTHER ADJUSTMENTS $ (4,810,608) $ (3,368,411)

TOTAL GENERAL REVENUE-RELATED REVENUE AND BALANCES $ 111,095,016 $ 110,185,564

* Assumes a supplemental distribution of $300 million to the Available School Fund in each year of the 2020-21 biennium,
contingent on approval by the School Land Board.
Note: Totals may not sum because of rounding.
SOURCE: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts.

12 July 2020
 Certification Revenue Estimate – Revised July 2020  2020-2021

TABLE A-3
Estimated General Revenue-Related Funds Revenue
Object Thousands of Dollars
Code Description 2020 2021

GENERAL REVENUE FUND

3004 Motor Vehicle Sales and Use Tax $ 4,039,097 $ 3,753,968
3005 Motor Vehicle Rental Tax 267,416 196,066
3007 Gasoline Tax 2,527,601 2,518,561
3008 Diesel Fuel Tax 912,870 907,289
3016 Motor Vehicle Sales and Use Tax–Seller Financed Motor Vehicles 154,117 157,092
3024 Driver's License Point Surcharges 0 0
3027 Driver Record Information Fees 3,006 2,384
3102 Limited Sales and Use Tax 32,861,520 31,242,700
3111 Boat and Boat Motor Sales and Use Tax 66,200 66,400
3114 Escheated Estates 681,199 698,823
3130 Franchise/Business Margins Tax 3,053,600 2,648,900
3139 Hotel Occupancy Tax 449,332 387,674
3175 Professional Fees 62,503 61,955
3186 Securities Fees 159,190 140,000
3201 Insurance Premium Taxes 2,558,691 2,526,774
3219 Insurance Maintenance Tax–Workers' Compensation Division and OIEC 57,251 57,089
3230 Public Utility Gross Receipts Assessment 57,041 52,016
3233 Gas, Electric and Water Utility Tax 378,991 375,201
3250 Mixed Beverage Gross Receipts Tax 389,866 361,902
3251 Mixed Beverage Sales Tax 479,214 441,764
3253 Liquor Tax 94,538 96,714
3258 Beer Tax 104,657 102,700
3275 Cigarette Tax 331,200 339,000
3278 Cigar and Tobacco Products Tax 215,524 207,411
3290 Oil Production Tax 3,075,897 1,954,222
3291 Natural Gas ProductionTax 984,114 831,188
3849 Tobacco Suit Settlement Receipts 438,528 437,800
3854 Interest Other - General, Non-Program 1,125 1,125
3950 Allocations to General Revenue from Special Funds 33,313 21,322
3952 Allocation of Uncompensated Care and Disproportionate Share Revenues 237,615 199,310
Other General Revenue Fund Revenue 2,790,399 2,597,126
3901 Less: Motor Fuel Taxes Allocation to State Highway Fund (2,539,176) (2,510,696)
3925 Less: Sales Taxes Allocation to State Highway Fund (2,500,000) (1,151,717)
3928 Less: Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Allocation to State Highway Fund 0 0
SUBTOTAL, GENERAL REVENUE FUND $ 52,426,439 $ 49,722,063

SCHOOL FUNDS*
3851 Interest on State Deposits/Investments - General, Non-Program $ 3,634 $ 1,128
3910 Allocation from Permanent School Fund to Available School Fund** 1,705,972 1,705,972
3922 State Gain from Lottery Proceeds 1,606,000 1,465,045
Other School Funds Revenue 104,091 92,815
SUBTOTAL, SCHOOL FUNDS $ 3,419,697 $ 3,264,960

TOTAL ESTIMATED NET GENERAL REVENUE-RELATED FUNDS $ 55,846,136 $ 52,987,023

* Includes net revenue for the Available School Fund, the State Technology and Instructional Materials Fund, and the Foundation School Account.
** Assumes a supplemental distribution of $300 million to the Available School Fund in each year of the 2020-21 biennium, contingent on
approval by the School Land Board.
Note: Totals may not sum because of rounding.
SOURCE: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts.

July 2020 13
 Certification Revenue Estimate – Revised July 2020  2020-2021

TABLE A-4
Estimated General Revenue-Dedicated Accounts Revenue
Account Thousands of Dollars
Number Account 2020 2021

9 Game, Fish, and Water Safety $ 146,261 $ 146,275

27 Coastal Protection 497 11,107
64 State Parks 46,946 51,401
151 Clean Air 64,139 73,445
153 Water Resource Management 80,315 80,595
225 University of Houston Current 88,078 89,078
238 University of Texas at Dallas Current 60,751 61,347
242 Texas A&M University Current 116,734 116,734
244 University of Texas at Arlington Current 78,429 79,976
248 University of Texas at Austin Current 122,436 123,627
249 University of Texas at San Antonio Current 52,128 52,913
250 University of Texas at El Paso Current 33,138 33,630
255 Texas Tech University Current 61,562 62,845
258 University of North Texas Current 54,663 52,178
259 Sam Houston State University Current 28,259 28,810
421 Criminal Justice Planning 14,311 14,928
469 Compensation to Victims of Crime 66,510 67,794
549 Waste Management 37,713 38,321
550 Hazardous and Solid Waste Remediation Fees 29,065 29,224
655 Petroleum Storage Tank Remediation 16,449 16,379
5000 Solid Waste Disposal Fees 11,631 11,863
5007 Commission on State Emergency Communications 19,350 19,350
5025 Lottery* 538,772 529,658
5050 9-1-1 Service Fees 42,200 42,200
5064 Volunteer Fire Department Assistance 21,198 21,192
5071 Emissions Reduction Plan** 109,283 101,495
5073 Fair Defense 26,417 35,377
5080 Quality Assurance 69,008 69,008
5094 Operating Permit Fees 40,548 39,850
5111 Designated Trauma Facility and EMS 93,545 112,954
5155 Oil and Gas Regulation and Cleanup 75,670 73,704
Other Accounts 889,128 906,335
TOTAL ESTIMATED GENERAL REVENUE-DEDICATED ACCOUNTS $ 3,135,134 $ 3,193,593

* Net of proceeds to the Foundation School Account and other dedicated accounts.
** Revenue collections do not include transfers from the State Highway Fund.
Note: Totals may not sum because of rounding.
SOURCE: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts.

14 July 2020
 Certification Revenue Estimate – Revised July 2020  2020-2021

TABLE A-5
Estimated Federal Income, by Fund or Account
Fund/
Account Thousands of Dollars
Number Fund or Account 2020 2021

1 General Revenue Fund $ 29,762,937 $ 32,649,105

6 State Highway Fund 5,811,323 5,097,456
9 Game, Fish, and Water Safety Account 51,208 51,208
37 Federal Child Welfare Service Account 471,179 501,325
92 Federal Disaster Account 543,423 394,023
127 Community Affairs Federal Account 219,928 219,928
148 Federal Health, Education and Welfare Account 2,952,375 3,370,293
171 Federal School Lunch Account 1,712,339 2,246,334
222 Department of Public Safety Federal Account 1,600 1,550
224 Governor's Office Federal Projects Account 104,418 104,693
273 Federal Health and Health Lab Funding Excess Revenue Account 262,472 262,472
325 Coronavirus Relief Fund 12,467,256 2,376,643
421 Criminal Justice Planning Account 145,000 145,000
449 Texas Military Federal Account 56,000 56,000
469 Compensation to Victims of Crime Account 31,116 31,448
549 Waste Management Account 7,944 7,944
5026 Workforce Commission Federal Account 1,528,482 1,586,914
5091 Office of Rural Community Affairs Federal Account 67,600 67,600
Other Funds and Accounts 185,961 185,089
TOTAL ESTIMATED FEDERAL INCOME $ 56,382,561 $ 49,355,025

Note: Totals may not sum because of rounding.

SOURCE: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts.

July 2020 15
 Certification Revenue Estimate – Revised July 2020  2020-2021

TABLE A-6
Estimated Other Funds Revenue, by Fund or Account
Fund/
Account Thousands of Dollars
Number Fund or Account 2020 2021

6 State Highway Fund $ 6,841,791 $ 5,669,808

11 Available University Fund 1,171,454 1,207,888
193 Foundation School Account/Local Recapture – Attendance Credits 2,279,161 2,533,107
304 Property Tax Relief Fund 2,068,409 1,909,461
365 Texas Mobility Fund 444,417 540,910
573 Judicial Fund 69,574 59,020
Disproportionate Share Revenue/State & Local Hospitals 5,460,039 5,174,976
Appropriated Receipts 665,555 667,133
Other Funds 3,902,812 4,271,135
TOTAL ESTIMATED OTHER FUNDS REVENUE $ 22,903,212 $ 22,033,438

Note: Excludes certain local funds that are appropriated but not deposited in the State Treasury, and deposits by semi-independent agencies.
Includes certain state revenue deposited in the State Treasury but not appropriated. Excludes federal income.
Note: Totals may not sum because of rounding.
SOURCE: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts.

16 July 2020
 Certification Revenue Estimate – Revised July 2020  2020-2021

TABLE A-7
Estimated All Funds Revenue, Excluding Trust Funds
Thousands of Dollars
Source 2020 2021

General Revenue-Related $ 55,846,136 $ 52,987,023

General Revenue-Dedicated 3,135,134 3,193,593
Federal Income 56,382,561 49,355,025
Other Funds 22,903,212 22,033,438
TOTAL ESTIMATED ALL FUNDS REVENUE $ 138,267,043 $ 127,569,079

Note: Excludes local funds and deposits by semi-independent agencies. Includes certain state revenue
deposited in the State Treasury but not appropriated.
Note: Totals may not sum because of rounding.
SOURCE: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts.

July 2020 17
 Certification Revenue Estimate – Revised July 2020  2020-2021

TABLE A-8
Estimated Allocations and Transfers from the General Revenue Fund
Thousands of Dollars
2020 2021
ALLOCATIONS AND TRANSFERS TO OTHER FUNDS
Available School Fund–Motor Fuel Taxes $ 852,841 $ 844,906
State Highway Fund–Motor Fuel Taxes 2,539,176 2,515,445
State Highway Fund–Severance Taxes 1,665,321 1,098,136
State Highway Fund–Sales Taxes 2,500,000 1,151,717
State Highway Fund–Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes 0 0
County and Road District Highway Fund–Motor Fuel Taxes 7,300 7,300
Economic Stabilization Fund–Severance Taxes 1,665,321 1,098,136
Teacher Retirement System Trust Fund (excl. health insurance) 2,017,787 2,097,819
TOTAL ALLOCATIONS AND TRANSFERS TO OTHER FUNDS $ 11,247,745 $ 8,813,459

ALLOCATIONS AND TRANSFERS TO GENERAL REVENUE-DEDICATED ACCOUNTS

Motor Fuel Allocation to Parks and Wildlife $ 18,170 $ 17,996
Motor Fuel Enforcement Allocation 31,287 30,997
State Parks Account–Sporting Goods Sales Tax (SGST) 100,730 101,207
Texas Recreation and Parks Account–SGST 8,296 8,455
Parks and Wildlife Conservation Capital Account–SGST 45,215 46,086
Large County and Municipal Recreation and Parks Account–SGST 4,044 4,120
Texas Historical Commission–SGST 11,914 12,033
Foundation School Account–Occupation Taxes 1,783,494 1,433,167
Hotel Occupancy Tax–Economic Development 37,444 32,306
Texas Department of Insurance Operating Account–Insurance Maintenance Taxes 147,219 140,625
Rural Voluteer Fire Department Insurance Account–Sales Tax 2,160 2,260
TOTAL ALLOCATIONS AND TRANSFERS TO GENERAL REVENUE-DEDICATED ACCOUNTS $ 2,189,974 $ 1,829,251

TOTAL ALLOCATIONS AND TRANSFERS FROM GENERAL REVENUE $ 13,437,719 $ 10,642,710

Details of the Economic Stabilization Fund – Cash Basis Reporting

Thousands of Dollars
2020 2021

TOTAL BEGINNING BALANCE* $ 10,099,210 $ 9,698,659

TRANSFERS, INTEREST AND INVESTMENT INCOME

Oil Production Tax Transfer 1,258,107 954,010
Natural Gas Production Tax Transfer 407,214 144,127
Unencumbered Balance Transfer 0 0
Interest Income 115,570 17,887
Investment Income 81,243 65,302
TOTAL TRANSFERS AND INTEREST INCOME $ 1,862,134 $ 1,181,325

APPROPRIATIONS 2,262,684 2,091,996

TOTAL ENDING BALANCE OF ESF $ 9,698,659 $ 8,787,988

* The total beginning balance includes cash balance in the State Treasury and invested balance with Texas Treasury Safekeeping Trust Company.
Invested balance and gain on those investments are based on the projected earnings as of June 26, 2020.
Note: Totals may not sum because of rounding.
SOURCE: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts.

18 July 2020
 Certification Revenue Estimate – Revised July 2020  2020-2021

TABLE A-9
Available School Fund and State Technology and Instructional Materials Fund
Estimated Balances, Revenues and Expenditures
Thousands of Dollars
2020 2021
BEGINNING CASH BALANCES
Available School Fund $ 58,188 $ 56,321
State Technology and Instructional Materials Fund 372,930 251,048
TOTAL BEGINNING CASH BALANCES $ 431,118 $ 307,369

ESTIMATED REVENUE
Available School Fund
Total Return Allocation from Permanent School Fund* $ 1,705,972 $ 1,705,972
Interest on State Deposits/Investments - General, Non-Program 3,634 1,128
Allocation from General Revenue Fund 852,841 844,906
TOTAL ESTIMATED AVAILABLE SCHOOL FUND REVENUE $ 2,562,447 $ 2,552,006

State Technology and Instructional Materials Fund

Sale of Textbooks $ 0 $ 0
Interest on State Deposits/Investments - General, Non-Program 12,513 12,513
Other Revenue 0 0
TOTAL ESTIMATED STATE TECHNOLOGY AND INSTRUCTIONAL MATERIALS FUND REVENUE $ 12,513 $ 12,513

TOTAL ESTIMATED REVENUE AND BEGINNING CASH BALANCES $ 3,006,078 $ 2,871,888

ESTIMATED EXPENDITURES
State Technology and Instructional Materials** $ 1,091,430 $ 10,000
Administration–State Technology and Instructional Materials Fund 2,271 2,271
Administration–Available School Fund 0 0
Per Capita Apportionment*
5,034,453 (prior year ADA) @ $319 1,605,008
5,078,066 (prior year ADA) @ $536 2,720,684
TOTAL ESTIMATED EXPENDITURES $ 2,698,709 $ 2,732,955

ENDING CASH BALANCE $ 307,369 $ 138,933

* Assumes a supplemental distribution of $300 million to the Available School Fund in each year of the biennium, contingent on approval
by the School Land Board.
** Represents only state revenue.
Note: Totals may not sum because of rounding.
SOURCE: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts.

July 2020 19
 Certification Revenue Estimate – Revised July 2020  2020-2021
TABLE A-10
Foundation School Program and Other School Programs
Funded Through State General Revenue-Related Funds,
the Property Tax Relief and the Tax Reduction and Excellence in
Education Funds, the Economic Stabilization Fund, and Local Funds
Thousands of Dollars
2020 2021
COST OF PUBLIC SCHOOL PROGRAMS
State Share of the Foundation School Program* $ 22,634,503 $ 21,587,555
State Share of Other School Programs 17,136 17,138
Elementary and Secondary School Emergency Relief (ESSER) Fund 0 1,157,297
Local Recapture–Attendance Credits* 2,279,161 2,533,107
Local Funds Assignment and Other Local Funds* 25,097,325 24,959,830
TOTAL COST OF PUBLIC SCHOOL PROGRAMS $ 50,028,125 $ 50,254,928

FUNDING
State Funds
Available School Fund** $ 1,605,008 $ 2,720,684
Foundation School Account–Opening Balance 29,038 0
Foundation School Account–Occupation Taxes 1,783,494 1,433,167
Foundation School Account–Lottery Proceeds 1,606,000 1,465,045
General Revenue 14,468,690 13,034,336
Property Tax Relief Fund 2,068,409 1,909,461
Tax Reduction and Excellence in Education Fund 667,000 830,000
Economic Stabilization Fund 424,000 212,000
Elementary and Secondary School Emergency Relief (ESSER) Fund*** 0 1,157,297
Total State Funds $ 22,651,639 $ 22,761,990

Local Funds
Local Recapture–Attendance Credits* $ 2,279,161 $ 2,533,107
Local Funds Assignment and Other Local Funds 25,097,325 24,959,830
Total Local Funds $ 27,376,486 $ 27,492,937

TOTAL STATE AND LOCAL FUNDING $ 50,028,125 $ 50,254,928

Sources of Property Tax Relief Fund Revenue Thousands of Dollars

2020 2021

BEGINNING CASH BALANCE $ 0 $ 0

REVENUE
3004 Motor Vehicle Sales and Use Tax 23,023 21,398
3130 Franchise/Business Margins Tax 1,308,700 1,135,200
3275 Cigarette Tax 716,400 733,200
3278 Cigar and Tobacco Products Tax 18,676 18,279
3851 Interest on State Deposits/Investments - General, Non-Program 1,610 1,384
TOTAL REVENUE $ 2,068,409 $ 1,909,461

NET TRANSFERS 0 0

APPROPRIATIONS 2,068,409 1,909,461

ENDING CASH BALANCE $ 0 $ 0

* As appropriated in HB 1, 86th Legislature, Regular Session, and adjusted based on revised estimates of Foundation School Program
costs provided by the Texas Education Agency and Legislative Budget Board.
** Assumes a supplemental distribution of $300 million to the Available School Fund in each year of the biennium, contingent on
approval by the School Land Board.
*** Includes federal revenue distributed to the Texas Education Agency as a result of the federal Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and
Economic Security (CARES) Act deposited to Fund 325-Coronavirus Relief Fund.
Note: Totals may not sum because of rounding.
SOURCE: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts.

20 July 2020
 Certification Revenue Estimate – Revised July 2020  2020-2021

TABLE A-11
Sources of State Highway Fund Revenue
Object Thousands of Dollars
Code Description 2020 2021

STATE REVENUE
3010 Motor Fuel Lubricants Sales Tax $ 38,000 $ 37,000
3014 Motor Vehicle Registration Fees 1,347,621 1,643,275
3018 Special Vehicle Permits 126,106 128,588
3752 Sale of Publications/Advertising 5,295 5,243
3767 Supplies/Equipment/Services–Federal/Other 40,000 40,000
3851 Interest on State Deposits/Investments - General, Non-Program 117,484 22,159
3901 Motor Fuel Taxes Allocation 2,539,176 2,515,445
3969 Severance Taxes Allocation 1,665,321 1,098,136
3925 Sales Taxes Allocation 2,500,000 1,151,717
3928 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Allocation 0 0
Other Revenue 128,109 126,381
TOTAL STATE REVENUE $ 8,507,112 $ 6,767,944

FEDERAL INCOME
3001 Federal Receipts Matched–Transportation Programs* $ 5,811,323 $ 5,097,456
3701 Federal Receipts Not Matched–Other Programs 0 0
TOTAL FEDERAL INCOME $ 5,811,323 $ 5,097,456

TOTAL STATE HIGHWAY FUND REVENUE $ 14,318,435 $ 11,865,400

* The estimate for Federal Income is based on the Texas Department of Transportation's February 2020 Cash Forecast.
Note: Totals may not sum because of rounding.
SOURCE: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts.

July 2020 21
 Certification Revenue Estimate – Revised July 2020  2020-2021

TABLE A-12
State Revenue, by Source and Fiscal Year
General Revenue-Related
Thousands of Dollars
2018 2019 2020 2021
Actual Actual Estimated Estimated
TAX COLLECTIONS
Sales Taxes $ 30,888,783 $ 29,838,536 $ 30,427,720 $ 30,157,383
Motor Vehicle Sales and Rental Taxes 4,931,010 4,966,892 4,484,122 4,125,203
Motor Fuel Taxes 980,704 1,008,293 907,547 921,724
Franchise Tax 2,829,812 2,962,146 3,055,377 2,648,900
Oil Production Tax 3,391,518 3,886,824 3,075,901 1,954,222
Insurance Taxes 2,507,283 2,597,819 2,708,153 2,668,372
Cigarette and Tobacco Taxes 561,826 594,145 546,724 546,411
Natural Gas Production Tax 1,431,106 1,685,681 984,114 831,188
Alcoholic Beverages Taxes 1,291,989 1,369,402 1,099,653 1,035,080
Hotel Occupancy Tax 601,244 636,110 449,332 387,674
Utility Taxes 452,391 471,362 467,632 459,317
Other Taxes 205,611 213,394 136,514 45,506

TOTAL TAX COLLECTIONS $ 50,073,275 $ 50,230,605 $ 48,342,789 $ 45,780,980

REVENUE BY SOURCE
Tax Collections $ 50,073,275 $ 50,230,605 $ 48,342,789 $ 45,780,980
Licenses, Fees, Fines, and Penalties 1,411,665 1,415,528 1,312,186 1,247,414
State Health Service Fees and Rebates 1,258,879 1,058,497 960,787 996,437
Net Lottery Proceeds 1,384,932 1,522,704 1,606,000 1,465,045
Land Income (4,018) 7,852 8,705 8,134
Interest and Investment Income 1,246,684 1,687,060 1,722,548 1,711,812
Settlements of Claims 517,459 617,692 598,695 478,667
Escheated Estates 636,257 693,355 681,199 698,823
Sales of Goods and Services 127,962 132,841 130,679 133,156
Other Revenue 501,553 501,405 482,548 466,555

TOTAL NET REVENUE $ 57,154,648 $ 57,867,538 $ 55,846,136 $ 52,987,023

Note: Totals may not sum because of rounding.

SOURCE: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts.

22 July 2020
 Certification Revenue Estimate – Revised July 2020  2020-2021

TABLE A-13
Percent Change in State Revenue, by Source and Fiscal Year
General Revenue-Related
2018 2019 2020 2021
Actual Actual Estimated Estimated
TAX COLLECTIONS
Sales Taxes 7.3 % (3.4) % 2.0 % (0.9) %
Motor Vehicle Sales and Rental Taxes 9.7 0.7 (9.7) (8.0)
Motor Fuel Taxes 2.8 2.8 (10.0) 1.6
Franchise Tax 3.6 4.7 3.1 (13.3)
Oil Production Tax 60.9 14.6 (20.9) (36.5)
Insurance Taxes 5.6 3.6 4.2 (1.5)
Cigarette and Tobacco Taxes (10.1) 5.8 (8.0) (0.1)
Natural Gas Production Tax 45.6 17.8 (41.6) (15.5)
Alcoholic Beverages Taxes 6.1 6.0 (19.7) (5.9)
Hotel Occupancy Tax 13.3 5.8 (29.4) (13.7)
Utility Taxes 3.0 4.2 (0.8) (1.8)
Other Taxes 108.2 3.8 (36.0) (66.7)

TOTAL TAX COLLECTIONS 10.4 % 0.3 % (3.8) % (5.3) %

REVENUE BY SOURCE
Tax Collections 10.4 % 0.3 % (3.8) % (5.3) %
Licenses, Fees, Fines, and Penalties 0.5 0.3 (7.3) (4.9)
State Health Service Fees and Rebates 1.9 (15.9) (9.2) 3.7
Net Lottery Proceeds 15.3 9.9 5.5 (8.8)
Land Income (127.4) (295.4) 10.9 (6.6)
Interest and Investment Income 17.5 35.3 2.1 (0.6)
Settlements of Claims 2.6 19.4 (3.1) (20.0)
Escheated Estates (35.0) 9.0 (1.8) 2.6
Sales of Goods and Services 4.1 3.8 (1.6) 1.9
Other Revenue 22.7 (0.0) (3.8) (3.3)

TOTAL NET REVENUE 9.3 % 1.2 % (3.5) % (5.1) %

SOURCE: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts.

July 2020 23
 Certification Revenue Estimate – Revised July 2020  2020-2021

TABLE A-14
State Revenue, by Source and Biennium
General Revenue-Related
Thousands of Dollars
2016-17 2018-19 2020-21
Actual Actual Estimated
TAX COLLECTIONS
Sales Taxes $ 56,933,284 $ 60,727,319 $ 60,585,103
Motor Vehicle Sales and Rental Taxes 9,071,666 9,897,902 8,609,325
Motor Fuel Taxes 1,886,573 1,988,997 1,829,271
Franchise Tax 5,576,770 5,791,958 5,704,277
Oil Production Tax 3,811,618 7,278,341 5,030,123
Insurance Taxes 4,600,582 5,105,102 5,376,525
Cigarette and Tobacco Taxes 1,186,809 1,155,971 1,093,135
Natural Gas Production Tax 1,561,562 3,116,787 1,815,302
Alcoholic Beverages Taxes 2,400,259 2,661,391 2,134,733
Hotel Occupancy Tax 1,051,868 1,237,354 837,006
Utility Taxes 874,030 923,753 926,949
Other Taxes 177,955 419,005 182,020

TOTAL TAX COLLECTIONS $ 89,132,977 $ 100,303,880 $ 94,123,769

REVENUE BY SOURCE
Tax Collections $ 89,132,977 $ 100,303,880 $ 94,123,769
Licenses, Fees, Fines, and Penalties 2,881,542 2,827,193 2,559,600
State Health Service Fees and Rebates 2,652,472 2,317,376 1,957,224
Net Lottery Proceeds 2,505,352 2,907,636 3,071,045
Land Income 29,038 3,834 16,839
Interest and Investment Income 2,168,619 2,933,745 3,434,360
Settlements of Claims 1,098,828 1,135,150 1,077,362
Escheated Estates 1,527,208 1,329,612 1,380,022
Sales of Goods and Services 245,571 260,803 263,835
Other Revenue 826,774 1,002,958 949,103

TOTAL NET REVENUE $ 103,068,381 $ 115,022,186 $ 108,833,159

Note: Totals may not sum because of rounding.

SOURCE: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts.

24 July 2020
 Certification Revenue Estimate – Revised July 2020  2020-2021

TABLE A-15
Percent Change in State Revenue, by Source and Biennium
General Revenue-Related
2016-17 2018-19 2020-21
Actual Actual Estimated
TAX COLLECTIONS
Sales Taxes 1.6 % 6.7 % (0.2) %
Motor Vehicle Sales and Rental Taxes 4.9 9.1 (13.0)
Motor Fuel Taxes 3.7 5.4 (8.0)
Franchise Tax (2.2) 3.9 (1.5)
Oil Production Tax (43.6) 91.0 (30.9)
Insurance Taxes 15.1 11.0 5.3
Cigarette and Tobacco Taxes 3.8 (2.6) (5.4)
Natural Gas Production Tax (50.9) 99.6 (41.8)
Alcoholic Beverages Taxes 9.5 10.9 (19.8)
Hotel Occupancy Tax 4.0 17.6 (32.4)
Utility Taxes (8.9) 5.7 0.3
Other Taxes (46.4) 135.5 (56.6)

TOTAL TAX COLLECTIONS (2.9) % 12.5 % (6.2) %

REVENUE BY SOURCE
Tax Collections (2.9) % 12.5 % (6.2) %
Licenses, Fees, Fines, and Penalties (7.2) (1.9) (9.5)
State Health Service Fees and Rebates 27.8 (12.6) (15.5)
Net Lottery Proceeds 8.8 16.1 5.6
Land Income (64.3) (86.8) 339.2
Interest and Investment Income 25.3 35.3 17.1
Settlements of Claims 2.0 3.3 (5.1)
Escheated Estates 51.4 (12.9) 3.8
Sales of Goods and Services 0.9 6.2 1.2
Other Revenue (4.7) 21.3 (5.4)

TOTAL NET REVENUE (1.2) % 11.6 % (5.4) %

SOURCE: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts.

July 2020 25
 Certification Revenue Estimate – Revised July 2020  2020-2021

TABLE A-16
State Revenue, by Source and Fiscal Year
All Funds, Excluding Trust Funds
Thousands of Dollars
2018 2019 2020 2021
Actual Actual Estimated Estimated
TAX COLLECTIONS
Sales Taxes $ 31,937,235 $ 34,023,916 $ 33,711,138 $ 32,247,302
Motor Vehicle Sales and Rental Taxes 4,973,441 5,010,592 4,524,142 4,162,844
Motor Fuel Taxes 3,674,997 3,743,004 3,446,723 3,432,420
Franchise Tax 3,685,940 4,217,869 4,364,077 3,784,100
Oil Production Tax 3,391,518 3,886,824 3,075,901 1,954,222
Insurance Taxes 2,508,434 2,599,025 2,709,200 2,669,433
Cigarette and Tobacco Taxes 1,320,540 1,410,391 1,281,800 1,297,890
Natural Gas Production Tax 1,431,106 1,685,681 984,114 831,188
Alcoholic Beverages Taxes 1,291,989 1,369,402 1,099,653 1,035,080
Hotel Occupancy Tax 601,244 636,110 449,332 387,674
Utility Taxes 452,391 471,362 467,632 459,317
Other Taxes 315,941 326,547 250,841 161,442

TOTAL TAX COLLECTIONS $ 55,584,775 $ 59,380,722 $ 56,364,553 $ 52,422,912

REVENUE BY SOURCE
Tax Collections $ 55,584,775 $ 59,380,722 $ 56,364,553 $ 52,422,912
Federal Income 39,618,568 41,904,474 56,382,561 49,355,025
Licenses, Fees, Fines, and Penalties 6,477,380 6,542,087 6,088,724 6,507,227
State Health Service Fees and Rebates 7,598,886 7,087,932 7,674,876 7,351,666
Net Lottery Proceeds 2,228,779 2,510,143 2,368,917 2,363,352
Land Income 2,061,067 2,251,226 2,227,123 2,418,143
Interest and Investment Income 1,849,033 2,504,409 2,121,682 1,958,842
Settlements of Claims 544,138 646,535 620,965 501,145
Escheated Estates 636,257 693,355 681,199 698,823
Sales of Goods and Services 285,146 278,865 320,075 322,502
Other Revenue 3,281,588 4,141,655 3,416,368 3,669,442

TOTAL NET REVENUE $ 120,165,619 $ 127,941,402 $ 138,267,043 $ 127,569,079

Note: Excludes local funds and deposits by semi-independent agencies. Includes certain state revenues deposited in the State Treasury but not appropriated.
Note: Totals may not sum because of rounding.
SOURCE: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts.

26 July 2020
 Certification Revenue Estimate – Revised July 2020  2020-2021

TABLE A-17
Percent Change in State Revenue, by Source and Fiscal Year
All Funds, Excluding Trust Funds
2018 2019 2020 2021
Actual Actual Estimated Estimated
TAX COLLECTIONS
Sales Taxes 10.5 % 6.5 % (0.9) % (4.3) %
Motor Vehicle Sales and Rental Taxes 9.7 0.7 (9.7) (8.0)
Motor Fuel Taxes 2.5 1.9 (7.9) (0.4)
Franchise Tax 13.7 14.4 3.5 (13.3)
Oil Production Tax 60.9 14.6 (20.9) (36.5)
Insurance Taxes 5.6 3.6 4.2 (1.5)
Cigarette and Tobacco Taxes (13.3) 6.8 (9.1) 1.3
Natural Gas Production Tax 45.6 17.8 (41.6) (15.5)
Alcoholic Beverages Taxes 6.1 6.0 (19.7) (5.9)
Hotel Occupancy Tax 13.3 5.8 (29.4) (13.7)
Utility Taxes 3.0 4.2 (0.8) (1.8)
Other Taxes 51.5 3.4 (23.2) (35.6)

TOTAL TAX COLLECTIONS 12.0 % 6.8 % (5.1) % (7.0) %

REVENUE BY SOURCE
Tax Collections 12.0 % 6.8 % (5.1) % (7.0) %
Federal Income 3.3 5.8 34.6 (12.5)
Licenses, Fees, Fines, and Penalties 3.5 1.0 (6.9) 6.9
State Health Service Fees and Rebates 13.4 (6.7) 8.3 (4.2)
Net Lottery Proceeds 8.5 12.6 (5.6) (0.2)
Land Income 21.7 9.2 (1.1) 8.6
Interest and Investment Income 9.3 35.4 (15.3) (7.7)
Settlements of Claims 3.2 18.8 (4.0) (19.3)
Escheated Estates (35.0) 9.0 (1.8) 2.6
Sales of Goods and Services (7.5) (2.2) 14.8 0.8
Other Revenue 10.4 26.2 (17.5) 7.4

TOTAL NET REVENUE 8.1 % 6.5 % 8.1 % (7.7) %

SOURCE: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts.

July 2020 27
 Certification Revenue Estimate – Revised July 2020  2020-2021

TABLE A-18
State Revenue, by Source and Biennium
All Funds, Excluding Trust Funds
Thousands of Dollars
2016-17 2018-19 2020-21
Actual Actual Estimated
TAX COLLECTIONS
Sales Taxes $ 57,145,836 $ 65,961,151 $ 65,958,440
Motor Vehicle Sales and Rental Taxes 9,148,430 9,984,033 8,686,986
Motor Fuel Taxes 7,097,450 7,418,001 6,879,143
Franchise Tax 7,123,395 7,903,809 8,148,177
Oil Production Tax 3,811,618 7,278,341 5,030,123
Insurance Taxes 4,602,817 5,107,459 5,378,633
Cigarette and Tobacco Taxes 2,911,191 2,730,930 2,579,690
Natural Gas Production Tax 1,561,562 3,116,787 1,815,302
Alcoholic Beverages Taxes 2,400,259 2,661,391 2,134,733
Hotel Occupancy Tax 1,051,868 1,237,354 837,006
Utility Taxes 874,030 923,753 926,949
Other Taxes 391,191 642,488 412,283

TOTAL TAX COLLECTIONS $ 98,119,648 $ 114,965,497 $ 108,787,465

REVENUE BY SOURCE
Tax Collections $ 98,119,648 $ 114,965,497 $ 108,787,465
Federal Income 77,839,465 81,523,043 105,737,586
Licenses, Fees, Fines, and Penalties 12,385,993 13,019,467 12,595,951
State Health Service Fees and Rebates 14,772,116 14,686,818 15,026,542
Net Lottery Proceeds 4,273,209 4,738,922 4,732,269
Land Income 2,833,603 4,312,293 4,645,266
Interest and Investment Income 3,053,487 4,353,442 4,080,524
Settlements of Claims 1,179,492 1,190,673 1,122,110
Escheated Estates 1,527,208 1,329,612 1,380,022
Sales of Goods and Services 601,277 564,011 642,577
Other Revenue 5,890,593 7,423,243 7,085,810

TOTAL NET REVENUE $ 222,476,092 $ 248,107,022 $ 265,836,122

Note: Excludes local funds and deposits by semi-independent agencies. Includes certain state revenues deposited in the
State Treasury but not appropriated.
Note: Totals may not sum because of rounding.
SOURCE: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts.

28 July 2020
 Certification Revenue Estimate – Revised July 2020  2020-2021

TABLE A-19
Percent Change in State Revenue, by Source and Biennium
All Funds, Excluding Trust Funds
2016-17 2018-19 2020-21
Actual Actual Estimated
TAX COLLECTIONS
Sales Taxes 1.5 % 15.4 % (0.0) %
Motor Vehicle Sales and Rental Taxes 4.9 9.1 (13.0)
Motor Fuel Taxes 5.0 4.5 (7.3)
Franchise Tax (24.1) 11.0 3.1
Oil Production Tax (43.6) 91.0 (30.9)
Insurance Taxes 15.1 11.0 5.3
Cigarette and Tobacco Taxes 1.3 (6.2) (5.5)
Natural Gas Production Tax (50.9) 99.6 (41.8)
Alcoholic Beverages Taxes 9.5 10.9 (19.8)
Hotel Occupancy Tax 4.0 17.6 (32.4)
Utility Taxes (8.9) 5.7 0.3
Other Taxes (27.1) 64.2 (35.8)

TOTAL TAX COLLECTIONS (4.4) % 17.2 % (5.4) %

REVENUE BY SOURCE
Tax Collections (4.4) % 17.2 % (5.4) %
Federal Income 9.7 4.7 29.7
Licenses, Fees, Fines, and Penalties 3.6 5.1 (3.3)
State Health Service Fees and Rebates 38.6 (0.6) 2.3
Net Lottery Proceeds 13.3 10.9 (0.1)
Land Income (16.9) 52.2 7.7
Interest and Investment Income 6.9 42.6 (6.3)
Settlements of Claims 5.7 0.9 (5.8)
Escheated Estates 51.4 (12.9) 3.8
Sales of Goods and Services (13.0) (6.2) 13.9
Other Revenue 11.9 26.0 (4.5)

TOTAL NET REVENUE 3.8 % 11.5 % 7.1 %

SOURCE: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts.

July 2020 29