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Ventas

Semana (Xt)
1 35
2 46
3 51
4 46
5 48
6 51
7 46
8 42
9 41 Ƭ 1
N 5
100
Ventas
90
Semana (Xt) MA(5) MA[2] Pronóstico
80
1 35
70
2 46
60
3 51
50
4 46
40
5 48 45.2
30
6 51 48.4
20
7 46 48.4
10
8 42 46.6
0
9 41 45.6 46.84 1 3 5 7 9 11
10 43 44.6 46.72 43.74
11 61 46.6 46.36 41.42
12 55 48.4 46.36 46.96
13 67 53.4 47.72 51.46
14 42 53.6 49.32 61.92
15 61 57.2 51.84 60.02
16 58 56.6 53.84 65.24
17 49 55.4 55.24 60.74
18 58 53.6 55.28 55.64
19 43 53.8 55.32 51.08
20 51 51.8 54.24 51.52
21 60 52.2 53.36 48.14
22 58 54 53.08 50.46
23 46 51.6 52.68 55.38
24 54 53.8 52.68 49.98
25 51 53.8 53.08 55.48
26 66 55 53.64 54.88
27 64 56.2 54.08 57.04
28 53 57.6 55.28 59.38
29 72 61.2 56.76 61.08
30 64 63.8 58.76 67.86
31 54 61.4 60.04 71.36
32 61 60.8 60.96 63.44
33 77 65.6 62.56 60.56
34 72 65.6 63.44 70.16
35 67 66.2 63.92 68.84
36 67 68.8 65.4 69.62
37 64 69.4 67.12 73.9
38 50 64 66.8 72.82
39 83 66.2 66.92 59.8
40 67 66.2 66.92 65.12
41 66 66 66.36 65.12
42 76 68.4 66.16 65.46
43 79 74.2 68.2 71.76
44 94 76.4 70.24 83.2
45 74 77.8 72.56 85.64
46 83 81.2 75.6 85.66
Chart Title
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45
Alfa 0.2

Año Mes Periodo Venta Xt St St2 a b


538 538
Ene. 1 538 538 538
Feb. 2 570 544.4 539.28 549.52 1.28
Mar. 3 600 555.52 542.528 568.512 3.248
Abr. 4 565 557.416 545.5056 569.3264 2.9776
Mayo 5 485 542.9328 544.99104 540.87456 -0.51456
Jun. 6 604 555.14624 547.02208 563.2704 2.03104
1977
Jul. 7 527 549.516992 547.5210624 551.5129216 0.4989824
Ago. 8 603 560.2135936 550.0595686 570.3676186 2.53850624
Sep. 9 604 568.9708749 553.8418299 584.0999199 3.782261248
Oct. 10 790 613.1766999 565.7088039 660.6445959 11.866974
Nov. 11 714 633.3413599 579.2353151 687.4474047 13.52651121
Dic. 12 653 637.2730879 590.8428697 683.7033062 11.60755457
Ene. 13 626 635.0184704 599.6779898 670.3589509 8.835120137
Feb. 14 690 646.0147763 608.9453471 683.0842055 9.267357296
Mar. 15 680 652.811821 617.7186419 687.9050002 8.773294785
Abr. 16 673 656.8494568 625.5448049 688.1541088 7.826162987
Mayo 17 613 648.0795655 630.051757 666.1073739 4.506952117
Jun. 18 744 667.2636524 637.4941361 697.0331687 7.442379075
1978
Jul. 19 718 677.4109219 645.4774932 709.3443506 7.983357166
Ago. 20 767 695.3287375 655.4477421 735.2097329 9.970248857
Sep. 21 728 701.86299 664.7307917 738.9951884 9.283049585
Oct. 22 793 720.090392 675.8027117 764.3780723 11.07192007
Nov. 23 726 721.2723136 684.8966321 757.6479951 9.093920374
Dic. 24 777 732.4178509 694.4008759 770.4348259 9.504243755
Ft+1 St= αXt + (1-α)St-1

550.8 Método de Brown Utilizo la misma alfa en St y St2.


571.76
572.304 Método de Holt Utiliza la alfa y gama como método
540.36 de suavizamiento en St y St2.
565.30144
552.011904
572.9061248
587.8821811
672.5115699
700.973916
695.3108608
679.194071
692.3515628
696.678295
695.9802718
670.614326
704.4755477
717.3277077
745.1799818
748.2782379
775.4499923
766.7419155