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Money?
Here's an explanation of time value of money, and how a formula
can help investors value any investment from stocks to bonds.
Time value of money is one of the most basic fundamentals in all of finance. The
underlying (SUBYACENTE) principle is that a dollar in your hand today is worth more
than a dollar you will receive in the future because a dollar in hand today can be
invested to turn into more money in the future. Additionally, there is always a risk
that a dollar that you are supposed to receive in the future won't actually be paid to
you.
It all depends on the return you can earn(GANAR) on your money. If you can earn 6%
on your money, for instance, then you should accept the $1,000 today. If invested for
one year, it would grow to $1,060, beating the option of receiving $1,050 one year
from now.
However, if you can only earn a 4% return on your money, you should accept the
offer of $1,050 paid one year from now. If you accept the $1,000 and invest it at a 4%
return, it will only grow to $1,040 in one year, compared to receiving $1,050 after one
year from your friend.
PV = FV ÷ (1+I)^N, where:
How much should you pay for this stock, assuming you need a 15% return?
Now that we have this information, we can start valuing each cash flow.
We plug in the first cash flow ($2 dividend), discount rate (15% annual required
return), and time (1 year) into the formula above to get the following:
PV = $2 ÷ (1+0.15)^1
PV = $2 ÷ (1.15)^1
PV = $2 ÷ (1.15)
PV = $1.74
After doing the math, we find that the first dividend is worth $1.74 in present dollars.
Now we have to calculate the present value of the second dividend. We plug in the
second cash flow ($2 dividend), discount rate (15% annual required return), and time
(2 years) into the formula above to get the following:
PV = $2 ÷ (1+0.15)^2
PV = $2 ÷ (1.15)^2
PV = $2 ÷ (1.3225)
PV = $1.51
The second dividend is worth less ($1.51) than the first dividend ($1.74) in present
dollars because it will come later in time. Cash flows in later periods have to be
discounted by a greater amount to ensure we receive the required 15% annual return
on our investment.
The final step is to sum up the present values of each cash flow to arrive at a value of
$28.58 per share for this stock.
If our assumptions(SUPOSICIONES) are correct about the dividend the stock will pay,
and its value at the end of four years, we'll generate a 15% annual return on our
investment in this stock provided that we do not pay a penny more than $28.58 per
share.
Of course, the outputs generated by time value of money formulas are only as good
as our inputs. If the company ceases to pay a dividend, or fails to trade for $40 per
share in year 4, then $28.58 will prove to be a much too expensive price for the
company's stock. That's not a weakness in the mathematics; the math is objective.
The subjective inputs are the most important part of the puzzle -- and the hardest
part to get right.
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