201 N Union Street, Suite 410

Alexandria, Virginia 22314

(703) 684-6688
THE TARRANCE GROUP
www.tarrance.com

TO: INTERESTED PARTIES

FROM: ED GOEAS
BRIAN NIENABER

RE: KEY FINDINGS FROM A STATEWIDE SURVEY OF LIKELY VOTERS IN MISSISSIPPI

______________________________________________________________________________

Methodology
The Tarrance Group is pleased to present the following findings from this survey among N=600
registered likely voters in Mississippi. Responses to the survey were gathered June 22-25, 2020. The
margin of error for this survey for the statewide sample is + 4.1% at the 95% confidence level.

This data finds that Senator Hyde-Smith is in a strong position to win re-election in November.
Most voters have a favorable impression of her. Most voters approve of her job performance.
She holds a substantial lead on the ballot and is winning her race by a greater margin than
President Trump. The political environment is very favorable for a Republican incumbent
candidate.

Name Identifications

Name Favorable Unfavorable

Cindy Hyde-Smith 51% 35%
Mike Espy 47% 33%

Ø As seen above, Senator Hyde-Smith is better known and has a higher favorable rating than
Mike Espy.

Senator Hyde-Smith Job Approval Rating

Ø A majority (54%) of voters approve of the job performance of Senator Hyde-Smith,

including 32% of voters who strongly approve of her job performance.

Ø Senator Hyde-Smith also has notably strong approval ratings among key voting blocs like
seniors (59%), conservatives (64%), and white voters (70%).

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U.S. Senate Ballot

Ø Hyde-Smith has a 20-point lead (58%-38%) over Espy on the aided U.S. Senate ballot. As
seen below, Hyde-Smith has the advantage across a broad range of demographic groups.

Hyde-
Smith
Demographic group Hyde-Smith Und Espy lead/deficit
All voters 58% 4% 38% 20%
Men 66% 3% 31% 35%
Women 51% 5% 44% 7%
18-44 year olds 58% 3% 38% 20%
45-64 year olds 58% 1% 41% 17%
Seniors 58% 7% 35% 23%
Some college 65% 4% 32% 33%
College grad 57% 4% 39% 18%
Republicans 95% 2% 3% 92%
Independents 51% 16% 33% 18%
White voters 84% 5% 11% 73%
Evangelicals 62% 3% 35% 27%
Married 64% 3% 33% 31%
White married women 86% 2% 12% 74%
White married men 87% 4% 8% 79%
Trump voters 97% 1% 2% 95%

Political Environment

Ø President Trump has a 15-point lead (55%-40%) over Joe Biden on an aided ballot test.

Ø As noted above, fully 97% of Trump voters are voting for Hyde-Smith on the U.S. Senate
ballot.

In sum, Senator Hyde-Smith holds a substantial lead on the ballot, driven by voter goodwill and
by voter satisfaction with her job performance. This data shows Senator Hyde-Smith is poised to
win re-election in November.

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