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POPULATION AND LAND USE.............................................................................................3
POPULATION GROWTH......................................................................................................3
Present Population .....................................................................................................3
Population Increase Year 2000 - 2020......................................................................4
Scenarios ....................................................................................................................5
POPULATION STRUCTURE .................................................................................................6
Age Structure..............................................................................................................6
FERTILITY..........................................................................................................................6
Fertility Rates ..............................................................................................................7
International Comparisons ....................................................................................7
Education and Labour Market for Women ...........................................................7
Marriage and Family..............................................................................................7
Future Fertility Rates ..................................................................................................8
MORTALITY .......................................................................................................................9
The National Land Use and Development Master Plan is referred to as the Plan in the text.
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Migration .....................................................................................................................9
Rural-urban population distribution ..........................................................................10
Migration 2010-2020 ................................................................................................11
Illegal Immigration................................................................................................11
POPULATION SCENARIOS 2020.......................................................................................11
Growth Rates............................................................................................................12
Population Distribution..............................................................................................13
Age Structure ............................................................................................................16
HOUSEHOLDS .................................................................................................................16
Household Scenarios 2020......................................................................................17
LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................19
LIST OF TABLES..............................................................................................................19
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Population and Land Use Population Growth

A country‟s population and how it is geographically distributed can influence The Plan is based on two scenarios for a future development of population and economy
the state of land use through the rate of growth and household formation, – a High Growth Scenario and a Low Growth Scenario. By using scenarios rather
access to basic services and infrastructure, age distribution and employment than forecasting just one single path of development, an interval will be established
opportunities, rural and urban environment and sustainable use and access within which the future population growth most likely will fall with respect to the
to natural resources. The impact of human needs versus available uncertainty of assumptions.
resources, in the context of emerging economies, leads to increasing
constraints to provide the growing population with basic human rights; food, The future population is based on assumptions on the future development of fertility,
shelter, access to quality social services and infrastructure. mortality and migration. These assumptions are based on analyses of the present
situation, the development during the past centuries and international experience on the
Rwanda, still considered the most densely populated country in Africa at development of those factors.
369.21 per square kilometer, continues to advocate in policy and practice a
pragmatic effort that should reduce the current growth rate of 3.2%, which is
notable higher that the 2.6% projected by the 2002 National Census.
Interesting to note is that in spite of the targeted reduced population rate of
2.3% in 2010 by the Vision 2020. This directly impacts on the interventions
that have been adopted since publishing Vision 2020 to reduce population
growth and causes the government to rethink strategies that will enable the
projected population growth to be realized otherwise, by 2020, population
will double the 2002 census to become 16 million. On the other hand, the
reason why current growth rates do not tally with targeted projections may
be that the targets in the Vision 2020 are truly ambitious.

In this demographic analysis, optimal scenarios on population structures and

projections will be defined in correlation with national statistics and targets to
harmonize with ongoing national development options. It is the intention of
the National Land Use and Development Master Plan (the „Plan’) to draw
from ongoing national development strategies to build comprehensive sector
specific land use guidelines. Present Population
The most recent comprehensive population census was conducted in August 2002
following the ones of 1991 and 1978. On a national level, Rwanda has experienced a
dramatic demographic change in the last decades with a rapidly increasing population.

According to the national Census 2002, Rwanda had a population of 8.2 million
1Rwanda Development Indicators published in April 2007 by the National Institute of inhabitants in comparison to the previous national census of 1991 where the population
Statistics.
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was at about 7.2 million. This, according to the population census,
estimates a mean annual population growth of 1.2%. The latest
demographic report from the National Institute of Statistics (NISR July 2009)
puts current population at approximately 10 million. This is not so far from
the 2007 statistics derived from a series of demographic and housing
surveys that estimate the current population to be about 9.7 million2. The
population in urban areas is 18.0% with an annual urban population growth
rate of 4.2%3.
growth, the targeted population for 2010 in the Vision 2020 is almost the same as the
actual in the new projections; Vision 2020 targets a population of 10,200,000 with an
average growth rate (2000-2010) of 2.6%, and the latest statistics (2009) estimate the
population of 2010 to be 10,412,820.
Figure 1: Population increase in Rwanda (actual and projected)
Population Increase 2000-2020
16

The Rwandan population is generally very young with high 14

dependency ratios. According to the 2002 census, more than two-

Population Size (millions)

thirds of the country population was under the age of 20. Recent 12

estimates show that this trend is continuing with under 5s constituting 10

16.3% of the population while those below the age of 15 make up
42.1%. 15-64 years are 55.2% of the total population while only 2.7% 8
are 65 years and above (Millennium Development Goals, Country
6
Report 2007). On the other hand, the current population structure
implies that a substantial number of Rwandans will establish families 4
and enter the housing market during the coming 10 years.
2

Population Increase Year 2000 - 2020 0

A mean rate of yearly natural increase of the Rwandan population is
estimated at 2.5 % for the whole planning period 2010 - 2020. That would
imply an increase of the total population in the Rwanda of up to 13 million by
the year 2020 from about 10 million in 2010.
However, the actual population growth 2002-2009 has been faster with an
average of 3% than the projected 2.6% by the 2002 national census or 2.5%
by the Vision 2020. In as much as the statistics present a higher population
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Year
Source: Census 2002; National Population Projections, NISR 2009
The soon to be achieved population of about 10.4 million in 2010 was projected
in the 2002 population census to be achieved in 2012. This validates the fact that
the population growth in 2002-2009 has been very high compared to projected
and expected population growth.

2 The Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning has been conducting regular demographic
and housing surveys whose results have been interpreted by the National Institute of Statistics
(NISR). The estimated value of 9.7 Million has been provided by NISR in the Rwanda
Development Indicators 2007.
3 Rwanda Development Indicators, 2007

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Scenarios The development of the death rates is less important, since the mortality of a young
The population projection (made by the National Institute of Statistics, July population will only have a minor influence on the population growth. Hence,
2009) has three scenarios; high growth rate, medium growth rate and low assumptions on the death rates are the same for all scenarios.
growth rate. The low growth rate which takes into consideration Vision 2020
The migration, however, is difficult to foresee. Therefore it is important to base scenarios
targets, realizations, conditions and provisions indicates an ambitious
for migration on different assumptions. The migration flows are dependent on the
population growth to about 13 million by the year 2020. The medium
economic development.
growth rate, is an extrapolation of past into the future and is heavily informed
by the reliable Demographic and house surveys of 1992, 2000, 2005 and Land-use applications (Needs assessment,
2007 and indicates a growth to about 13.8 million by the year 2020. The Risk & Suitability Analysis and investment
high growth rate scenario presupposes constant current population growth planning) in the Rwanda should be based on
rates where there are no assumptions on interventions to control growth and a future population increase according to two
indicates a growth to about 14.1 million by the year 2020. The overall scenarios – a High Growth Scenario and a
components of these three scenarios include; fertility projections, Low Growth Scenario. The future
mortality projections, migration projection and sex ratio at birth. It is population growth will most likely reach at
important to note that these projections have taken into consideration recent least the level of the Low Growth Scenario
population trends to the extent that in 2000 it was estimated that, with no but not exceed the level of the High Growth Scenario. The two population scenarios are
interventions to control population growth, the Rwandan population was based on different assumptions of fertility rate and of migration. They are combined
expected to double by 2020 according to the table below. The scenarios are named High Growth and Low Growth.
The population scenarios for the Plan are based on analyses of the factors Table 1: Population Scenarios
influencing growth, i.e. the number of births and deaths and the migration to
and from the country. The age structure is of great importance, since a Fertility Migration
young population generates more births and fewer deaths than an old
population. The other factor determining population development - migration High Growth High fertility High net
- is also dependent on the age structure, since the migrants most often are Scenario rate migration
quite young, around 25 years of age. A positive net-migration to the country
will imply more people in child-bearing ages which will give more births and Low Growth Low fertility Low net
an indirect increase of the population. Scenario rate migration
The population in the Rwanda is very young, mainly because of high fertility The assumptions on fertility, mortality and migration will be analyzed more in detail in the
rates. The development of the fertility rates thus is a very crucial factor for following text.
the forthcoming population development. Therefore, scenarios on different
fertility rates will be used when studying the population development.

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Population Structure Fertility

Rwanda has experienced an interesting pattern in fertility rate over the past 15 years; as
Age Structure seen in figure below;
The age structure in the Rwanda has been closely linked to the high rate of
natural increase. In 2002, according to recent census, 42.1% of the
Rwandan population was younger than 15 years of age. This share has
been increasing up to an estimated 42 % in year 20084. Only a 2.5 % were
older than 65 years in 2002 a %age that reduces in 2008 to 2.52%.5 For the
planning period (2008-2020), the following figures show the age structure in
the Rwanda.

Young population as future potential for economic development (workforce

engine);
Table 2: Population in Age Groups, Rwanda 2008-2020

Year 0-4 5-14 15-49 50-64 65+

Figure 2: Fertility rate 1992-2007
2008 17.28 24.96 49.25 6 2.52

2010 17.46 24.86 48.9 6.39 2.39 FERTILITY RATE

Total Fertility Rate
2012 17.5 25.05 48.46 6.68 2.31 6,4
6,2 6,2
6,1
2014 17.39 25.33 48.18 6.79 2.31 6

Percent
5,8 5,8
2016 17.14 25.85 47.82 6.82 2.37 5,6
5,5
5,4
2018 16.92 26.3 47.53 6.8 2.45 5,2
5
1992 2000 2005 2007
2020 16.72 26.41 47.53 6.79 2.56
Year
Source: National Population Projections, NISR July 2009 Source;
Demographic and House Survey 2008; in Population Projections, NISR July 2009
4 Preliminary report for the Demographic and Health Survey of 2008

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The reason for the wave pattern is the effect on the productive age groups
which came as a result of 1994 genocide. In 2005 the non productive age
group matured. The decrease from 2005 onwards indicates family planning
impact.
Fertility Rates
The number of births in a population differs according to the number of
women in different age groups and according to the fertility rates for each
specific age group. These data are called age specific fertility rates.
Summing up all age specific fertility rates result in the total fertility rate,
which gives a measure on the total number of children per woman during
her lifetime if the fertility rates are stable over time.
The population of a country is said to pass “the demographic transition”
when it passes from a high mortality and high fertility situation to a low
mortality and low fertility situation. This transition is dependent on improved
economic and health conditions. With low mortality it is sufficient with a
fertility rate, of 2.1 children per woman to get a stable and balanced
population. In many economically developed countries fertility rate per
woman is even lower.
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
There is a common international trend of declining fertility. Factors
influencing this development are the level of literacy, GDP per capita and the
labour participation of women respectively. Among countries with a GDP per
capita exceeding 25,000 USD the total fertility rate is almost always lower
than 2.0. However, in emerging economies, the natural trend is increasing
fertility also recording some of the highest population numbers and
densities. In Rwanda, the total fertility rate averages 5.9 in the past 17
years. Rwanda currently has the highest population density in Africa of
about 370 per square kilometer.
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EDUCATION AND LABOUR MARKET FOR WOMEN
Rwandan women have within a short period obtained impressive changes in terms of
gender equality. The most perceptible change is the presence of women in higher
education and in professional positions. Women have made a leap forward on the labour
market and referring to the EICV 2 survey, the gender contribution on the labour market
is more or less the same. The difference is in the nature of jobs where women
predominantly feature in the informal sector and men dominate the formal sector.
The level of education of woman is also a key factor in family planning and birth control.
In Rwanda, the total fertility rate among with no education is 6.9 %, dropping to 6.1 % for
those with primary education and 4.3 amongst woman with secondary or higher
education.
On intermediate level of education and at universities, female students make up
approximately 40% which is a serious drop from lower education where female students
average 51%. Traditional attitudes on which type of work is suitable for women render
them positions in teacher training institutions. However, women make up only about 40%
in the teaching profession. Additional statistics show the following distribution in selected
sectors: about 20% doctors, 36% in justice and approximately 34% in local government.
Rwanda is popular for the majority of women in the lower chamber of Parliament, 56%.
Although supporting statistics are not available, it is a tendency to find majority of women
in sectors like public health, economy, computer science, languages and social sciences.
The above statistics of young women‟s extensive partaking in the educational system,
will lead to a growing female presence in working life. The currently relatively low figures,
of an average fertility rate of 6.1 among women who have not gone to school compared
to 3.8 for women with an education of secondary school and higher, are bound to
change once large amounts of young women have finalized their education.
MARRIAGE AND FAMILY
Higher education for women automatically leads to later marriages and higher age at
birth of first child, but in Rwanda legal marriage age is comparatively high to begin with;
minimum legal age of marriage has is 21 according to the family law of 1988. These
quite considerable changes in marriage habits also influence the fertility rate, since
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biology sets a limit to child birth later in life. The decrease of child mortality
has also contributed to this development.
Another factor influencing fertility is the country‟s shortage of housing and
the growing cost for housing. Housing problems may postpone marriage
plans and child birth, especially when attitudes are changing and young
couples in cities prefer a dwelling of their own to moving in with their peers.
In Rwanda, this trend has not yet picked up; most young single female
adults either leave with their parents, relatives or peers in the urban area.
However, the situation is different for single mothers, who end up find their
own dwelling.
Family size is decreasing slowly in Rwanda. The tendency is now an
average of 4.3 members per household. There is a strong modernization of
attitudes at present; most parents want their children to get a good
education.
Figure 3: Family planning will have to be accepted by the general public to
reduce hazardous population growth rate.
Future Fertility Rates
With a higher degree of women participation in the work force, a declining fertility level is
foreseen. The fertility is generally higher in rural areas than in urban areas. The share of
people living in urban and rural areas respectively differs between the Provinces. Future
fertility rates in the Provinces will be dependent on the future educational level for
women, the participation of women in the workforce and on the distribution of population
in urban and rural areas.
Assumptions have been made for the future fertility rates in the Rwanda. Different
assumptions are made for every province. The assumptions are partly based on total
fertility rate presented in the UN World Population Prospects.
For the High Growth Scenario the assumption is that the present level of fertility in every
Province will decline with a rate that follows the ones used by United Nations for
Rwanda. The Low Growth Scenario assumption is that the decline will only be half as
rapid as in the low UN scenario. The reason for adjusting the low rate is that the
Provinces of Rwanda have already reached quite low levels. For the High Growth
Scenario the assumption is that the fertility rates will continually decrease from the 2010
level to 85 % of that level by 2020. For the Low Growth Scenario fertility rates will
continually decrease from the 2010 level to 75 % of that level by 2020. The calculations
result in the following average fertility rates for the Rwanda:
Table 3: Total fertility rate (children per woman), Rwanda, 2008-2020

Period High Growth Low Growth

Scenario Scenario

2008 5.5 5.46

2010 5.5 5.38
2012 5.5 5.30
2014 5.5 5.22
2016 5.5 5.14

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2018 5.5 5.06 Source: National Statistics Year Book, 2009

2020 5.5 4.98 According to mortality rates per country published in 2007 on the UNICEF website,
Rwanda has one of the highest mortality rates. Child mortality rate statistics on Rwanda
Source: National Population Projection, NISR July 2009 do not show so much difference in the past three decades, with estimates published in
the Disease and Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa, by UNICEF, recording it at 206 in 1960
to 220 for every 1000 live births in 2000. This figures are quite alarming when you make
Mortality a reference to recent statistics provided by the National Institute of Statistics (see table
2.5 above) which leads to question the rates in the mentioned report. When compared
The crude death rate has declined as a result of improved standard of living,
with other African nations Rwanda is ranked among the top 10 with Sierra Leone leading
income increase, increase of health awareness and the availability of with 314 for every 1000 live births, followed by Angola and Niger with 249, 'Hill K. et al,
medical treatment. People have generally become older as a result of
Trends in child mortality in the developing world: 1960 to 1996, UNICEF' .
improved health care and related services.

Table 4: Total mortality Rate in Rwanda in the period 2005-2008

Table 5: Mortality rate for females in the period(1997-2007)
Infant mortality rate per 1000 live births
Sex Infant Mortality rate Under 5
mortality of ages 1-5 mortality rate
Year 2005 2006 2007 2008
rate
Mortality Rate 86 86 62 62
Male 83 69 146
Under 5 years mortality rate per 1000 live births
Female 71 55 123
Year 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: Interim Demographic House Survey in July 2009 Population Projections report
Mortality rate 152 152 103 103

Maternal mortality rate per 100,000 births Migration

The population changes from the period 1978-1991 were marked by unevenness
Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 between urban and rural areas. The high rural-urban migration that characterizes the
Rwandan population distribution is usually an effect of disparities in income and
Mortality Rate 750 750 690 690 economic opportunities. The table 2.7 below indicates a remarkable net increase in the

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urban population of over 300% for the period 1991-2002. The major urban Table 7: Change in Urban and Rural Population Structure in 2000(EICV1) and 2005
growth was recorded in the other urban areas other than Kigali City. (EICV2)

Table 6: Evolution of urban population in Rwanda for the period 1978- EICV1 EICV2
2002
Stratum Estimated Share Estimated Share
Census Urban population (%) population (%)
Total
Year Population Population (%) City of Kigali 663,000 8.3 703,000 7.4

1978 4,831,527 4.6 Other urban 618,000 7.8 865,000 9.1

1991 7,157,551 5.5 Rural 6,683,000 83.9 7,893,000 83.4

2002 8,162,715 16.7 Total 7,963,000 100 9,460,000 100

Source: The Rwanda General Census of Population and Housing, 2002
Rural-urban population distribution
In 2003, when the Vision 2020 document was published, the urban
population was estimated at 10%, recent statistics from the National Institute
of Statistics put it at almost 17% in 2007. It is not certain whether the urban
growth is related to economic development strategies or urban rural
migrations. Both have a specific effect on the environment; urban growth for
economic development provides additional amenities on top of what already
exists and this reduces physical pressure on the environment and; rural
urban migration may pose a situation where minimal amenities are being
shared by a larger population. Rwanda urban growth may present both
reasons. For instance, along main transport corridors that were recently
(between 2003 and 2008) constructed in tarmac, trading centres have
mushroomed, and where they were existing have been improved. Table 2.8
is taken from the EICV poverty analysis for the Economic Development
Strategy (2007) that shows the population structure in the rural and urban
areas.
The table 2.8 above shows that the population living in urban areas generally increased
from 16.1% to 16.5%. These figures however, show that population did increase in
numbers by almost 300,000 inhabitants in the urban area. Comparing the age
distribution between the two sets of population structure, it is observed that there are
more infants in the rural area than in the urban area. This explains that rural-urban
migration is actually on the increase whereas fertility rate is higher in the rural areas.
The major reasons for rural urban migration are in search for convenient access to
services, infrastructure, amenities and employment. Generally, the Rwandan population
is rural by 83% with 53% women6. Among the population living in the urban area, the
statistics are reversed with more men than women; this means that there are more men
urban migrating than women. This is especially true for young men between (16 and 30
years) who migrate for jobs, education, and the City experience.
In order to control rural urban migration, the Government has resorted to adopting
strategies that bring services, infrastructure and amenities to the people. Not only is this
enshrined in the Rwanda constitution, but has also been translated into policy
documents of Decentralisation policy, Vision 2020, EDPRS and Vision 2020-Umurenge.

6 This information is provided in the Rwanda Development indicators, April 2007

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Migration 2010-2020 The population scenarios have taken the Census 2002 as the starting point. The
One of the factors the will affect migration is the emerging policy aiming at demographic projection is resting on the described assumptions on fertility, mortality and
converting the Rwandan predominately agricultural economy to a market migration.
economy. Consequently, with less direct intervention from the government in
According to the scenarios, the population in the Rwanda will increase from about 8
economy, the possibilities to counteract a less desired migration will
million inhabitants in 2002 to between 13 and 14 million inhabitants by the year 2020.
decrease. Market economy generally relies on knowledge and contacts.
The future population in the Rwanda according to the two scenarios is presented in
Consequently, due to reasons of competitiveness, this creates a need to
Figure 2.3 and Table 2.9 below.
locate business in big cities. This could result in new job opportunities mostly
created in Kigali City.

It is reasonable to assume that economic factors and the labour market

situation will play a central role in determining future migration. The
scenarios for GDP and productivity are sector-specific, where the resulting
labour demand, i.e. employment, is calculated with respect to the economic
sectors respectively.

In the High Growth Scenario the total employment in the Rwanda is

assumed to increase by slightly more than 100 % in the period 2010-2020.
In the Low Migration Scenario the total employment is assumed to increase
by about 65 % in the same period. Table 8: Scenarios, population in Rwanda, 2008-2020
The Kigali City is assumed to have a larger increase in employment than
Year Low Growth Scenario High Growth Scenario
other Provinces in both scenarios.
ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION Total Total
population population
In addition to the legal immigration there is illegal immigration in Rwanda,
but the magnitude is uncertain. However, the general view indicates a 2008 9,822,000 9,834,000
limited illegal immigration. 2010 10,356,000 10,429,000

2012 10,887,000 11,074,000

Population Scenarios 2020
2014 11,405,000 11,765,000
The Plan is based on two scenarios for the future population development,
High Growth Scenario and Low Growth Scenario. 2016 11,912,000 12,496,000

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2018 12,436,000 13,266,000

POPULATION PROJECTION
2020 12,974,000 14,073,000
16

Millions
Source: Projected population growth 2008-2020 in the Rwanda according to the
14
two scenarios, millions of inhabitants.
12

10
High Growth
8
Low Growth
6

0
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Year

The annual population growth between the years 2008 and 2020 will decrease
moderately according to both scenarios.
Figure 4: Population Projections in Rwanda, 2008-2020

Growth Rates
The annual population growth 1978-1991 was 3.1% in Rwanda. Up until 1991, the
annual population growth increased. The trend then became a decline, reaching an
estimated 1.2% between 1991 and 2002 due to the rise in crimes against humanity in the
early 1990s. The table 2.10 below shows growth rates for Rwanda and for the Rwanda
2010-2020 according to population scenarios.

Table 9: Population net annual growth rates, Rwanda 1978-2002, Census Results 1978,
1991 and 2002; period 2002-2010, and low growth scenario for Rwanda 2010-2020

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2010-
1978- 1991- 2002- POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY AGE GROUP

Population Period 1991 2002 2010 2020 AND GENDER 2008

change
80 +

75 - 79
Census Census Projection
70 - 74

65 - 69
Overall
change (%) 48.1 14 21.6 19.7 60 - 64

55 - 59
Mean
annual 50 - 54

growth rate

AGE GROUP
45 - 49
(%) 3.1 1.2 3.2 2.5
40 - 44

Source: Vision 2020; The Rwanda General Census of Population and Housing, 35 - 39
2002; Population projections, 2009
30 - 34

25 - 29
Population Distribution
20 - 24
Figure 5: Population distribution 2008
15 - 19

10 - 14
NO. OF MALES
5-9 NO. OF FEMALES

0-4

1200000 700000 200000 300000 800000

POPULATION

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POPULATION PROJECTED PER DISTRICT 2002-2020

POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY AGE GROUP
The growth of the population per district is illustrated by a series of maps showing the
AND GENDER 2020
increased population density. Population density is a key indicator for economic growth,
service and utility provision and risks for environmental degradation. Please observe that
areas of lakes and protected areas have been subtracted from the total district area to
80 +
better representation:
75 - 79

70 - 74

65 - 69

60 - 64

55 - 59

50 - 54
AGE GROUP

45 - 49

40 - 44

35 - 39

30 - 34

25 - 29

20 - 24

15 - 19
NO. OF MALES HIGH
10 - 14
NO. OF MALES LOW
5-9 NO. OF FEMALES HIGH
NO. OF FEMALES LOW
0-4

1200000 700000 200000 300000 800000

POPULATION

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The projections, made by NISR shows, a clear trend that Kigali City will be pressured by
a high population. However, the western half of the country, and Rubavu District in
particular, will have a higher population density than the western side.

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Age Structure Households

For both scenarios a very large increase in the age groups 30-60 can be The household is a decisive unit in planning and in economics. It is also the base unit in
expected. The demographic change is shown in the following figure by many theories. It is of great importance to know the number of households in the
population pyramids for 2010 and 2020. population when estimating the future demand for housing.

A household is defined as a person or group of persons who occupy the same

In the Low Growth Scenario there is a more or less stable number of dwelling. The household may consist of a family, two or more families sharing
children 0-14, and together with low migration it is in fact a decrease. The a dwelling, a group of unrelated persons or a person living alone. A family
age groups 15-29 which are the largest per one-year class 2010, are consists of a group of people living in the same household and related to each
decreasing in the Low Growth Scenario due to low migration, and remain other by birth, marriage or adoption. In Rwanda, both households and families
stable in the High Growth Scenario. The age structure 2010-2020 is shown are used as statistical units.
in figures in the following table.
As can be seen in table 2.12, most households consist of between 2-6 members. Less
Table 10:Population in major age groups in Rwanda, 2002,2010,2020,
than 15% of the households contain 7 or more members and just above 8% consist of
thousands of inhabitants
households with only 1 member.
2020

Low High
Age Group 2002 2010 Growth Growth

0-5 (Pre-school) 1456000 1818000 1797000 2449000

5-15 (School-going) 2212000 2589000 3307000 3753000

15-64 (Work-force) 4257000 5757000 7516000 7516000

65- (Retired) 238000 249000 354000 355000

Total 8163000 10413000 12974000 14073000

Source: Census 2002 and scenario estimations for 2010-2020.

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Table 11: Distribution of urban and rural households by size of household Household Scenarios 2020
in Rwanda, 2002. In order to estimate the formation of households, current household sizes of 4.3 have
been used to calculate number of households for 2010-2020. For other years,
Number of Households('000)
information on household sizes has not been traced and will be left out. By applying this
Size of household-quotient to the population scenarios, the compound growth rate has been
Household Urban Rural Total calculated for the households in Rwanda using the two scenarios as shown in Table
2.14.
1 27.4 99.9 127.3
Table 12: Number of households, average household size and annual growth rate in
different scenarios in Rwanda 1978-2020
2 36.6 180.8 217.4
1978 1991 2002 2010 2020
3 42.5 260.7 303.2
Low High
growth growth
4 41.9 262.2 304.1 scenario scenario

5 36.9 227.6 264.5

Population '000 4,832 7,158 8,163 10,413 12,974 14,073

6 29.2 174.8 204.1 No of households

'000 _ _ 1757.4 2421.6 3017.2 3272.8
7 21.7 123.0 144.2 Average
household size _ _ _ 4.3 4.3 4.3
8 15.1 78.8 93.9
Annual growth rate
(%) _ 3.1 1.4 3.0 2.5 3.2
9 9.4 43.3 52.7

10+ 12.2 33.3 45.5 Guidelines

273.0 1484.4 1757.4 The planning process needs reliable population growth estimations
including age structure, distribution and household size. Two population
Source: Census of population and housing 2002 growth scenarios are presented in this chapter.

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Guidelines - Population Figure 6: Scenario, Population Projections

Land-use applications (Needs assessment, Risk & Suitability Analysis and

investment planning) in the Rwanda should be based on a future population
POPULATION PROJECTION
increase according to two scenarios – a High Growth Scenario and a Low
Growth Scenario. The future population growth will most likely reach at least
the level of the Low Growth Scenario but not exceed the level of the High 15

Millions
Growth Scenario.
14
Dependency levels potentially threaten; Referring to the data presented in High Growth
the age structure section above, the population structure is so wide at the
13
base that it engenders high dependency levels. These potentially threaten to
significantly reduce the impact of even the highest levels of economic growth
on the population‟s quality of life. The effects of the 1994 genocide on the 12
population structure, reflected by phenomena such as the high percentage Low Growth
of female-headed households, increases the number of vulnerable 11
categories of people whose plight needs targeted interventions.
10
Need for curbing population growth; The problem of high population growth
is further compounded by the majority of the population deriving its livelihood 9
from direct use of land, a commodity that is increasingly becoming scarce. It 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
is thus imperative that as much effort is put on curbing population growth as
it is on avenues of accelerating economic growth. As reflected in EDPRS, Year
there is increasing realisation that other sources of livelihood have to be
explored because long-term dependence on land is no longer a realistic
option for most Rwandans. It is thus critical that the change of focus from
land-based livelihood strategies to other alternatives such as building a
knowledge-based economy be intensified.

Young population as future potential for economic development (workforce

engine); Considering that over 60% of the Rwanda population is under 24
years and the country is targeting to transform its predominantly agricultural
economy to a service led market economy, specific strategies to realise the
same can take advantage of an increasing youthful population (welcomes
change) as opposed to the thinning population towards 60 and above.

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LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE 1: POPULATION INCREASE IN RWANDA ------------------------------------ 4
FIGURE 2: FERTILITY RATE ------------------------------------------------------------------- 6
FIGURE 3: FAMILY PLANNING WILL HAVE TO BE ACCEPTED ----------------- 8
FIGURE 4: POPULATION PROJECTIONS IN RWANDA, -------------------------- 12
FIGURE 5: POPULATION DISTRIBUTION 2008 --------------------------------------- 13
FIGURE 6:SCENARIO, POPULATION PROJECTIONS------------------------------ 18
02_Demography_SteeringCommitteeDraft
L A N D U S E D E V E L O P M E N T M A S T E R P L A N - D E M O G R A P H Y
LIST OF TABLES
TABLE 1: POPULATION SCENARIOS ------------------------------------------------------ 5
TABLE 2:POPULATION IN AGE GROUPS, RWANDA -------------------------------- 6
TABLE 3: TOTAL FERTILITY RATE(CHILDREN PER WOMAN) -------------------- 5
TABLE 4: TOTAL MORTALITY RATE IN RWANDA ------------------------------------- 9
TABLE 5: MORTALITY RATE FOR FEMALES ------------------------------------------- 9
TABLE 6: EVOLUTION OF URBAN POPULATION IN RWANDA ---------------- 10
TABLE 7:CHANGE IN URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION STRUCTURE---- 10
TABLE 8: SCENARIOS, POPULATION IN RWANDA, 2008-2020----------------- 11
TABLE 9: POPULATION NET ANNUAL GROWTH RATES, ----------------------- 12
TABLE 10:POPULATION IN MAJOR AGE GROUPS IN RWANDA--------------- 16
TABLE 11: DISTRIBUTION OF URBAN AND RURAL HOUSEHOLDS -------- 17
TABLE 12: NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS, AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE --- 17
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