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Intégration de la production éolienne aux réseaux

électriques : approches techniques et économiques


Lina Maria Ruiz Gomez

To cite this version:


Lina Maria Ruiz Gomez. Intégration de la production éolienne aux réseaux électriques : approches
techniques et économiques. Autre. Université de Grenoble, 2012. Français. �NNT : 2012GRENT089�.
�tel-00844387v2�

HAL Id: tel-00844387


https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00844387v2
Submitted on 20 Sep 2013

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THÈSE
Pour obtenir le grade de

DOCTEUR DE L’UNIVERSITÉ DE
GRENOBLE
Spécialité : Génie Electrique
Arrêté ministériel : 7 août 2006

Présentée par

« Lina Maria RUIZ GOMEZ »


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Thèse dirigée par « Nouredine HADJ-SAID et Codirigée
par Patrick CRIQUI»

Préparée au sein du laboratoire de Génie Electrique de


Grenoble (G2ELAB) dans l'École Doctorale
« Electronique, Electrotechnique, Automatisme,
Télécommunications, Signal »

Intégration de la production
éolienne aux réseaux
électriques : approches
techniques et économiques
Thèse soutenue publiquement le « 24 Octobre 2012 »,
devant le jury composé de :
M. Nouredine HADJ-SAID
Professeur INP-Grenoble, Directeur de Thèse
M. Patrick CRIQUI
Directeur de Recherche, Directeur de Thèse
M. Xavier GUILLAUD
Président du jury, Rapporteur
M. Patrice GEOFFRON
Professeur Paris Dauphiné, Rapporteur
M. Régis BLANC
Examinateur
M. Jean-Eudes MONCOMBLE
Secrétaire Générale Conseil Français de l’Energie, Examinateur
M. Philippe MENANTEAU
Chargé de Recherche, Encadrant
M. Cédric CLASTRES
Maître de conférences UPMF, Encadrant
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Chapitre 1. L’éolien une filière en pleine croissance : dynamismes, perspectives et limitations

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1 - 16 -
Chapitre 1. L’éolien une filière en pleine croissance : dynamismes, perspectives et limitations

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1 - 17 -
Chapitre 1. L’éolien une filière en pleine croissance : dynamismes, perspectives et limitations

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1 - 18 -
Chapitre 1. L’éolien une filière en pleine croissance : dynamismes, perspectives et limitations

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1 - 19 -
Chapitre 1. L’éolien une filière en pleine croissance : dynamismes, perspectives et limitations

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1 - 20 -
Chapitre 1. L’éolien une filière en pleine croissance : dynamismes, perspectives et limitations

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1 - 21 -
Chapitre 1. L’éolien une filière en pleine croissance : dynamismes, perspectives et limitations

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Chapitre 1. L’éolien une filière en pleine croissance : dynamismes, perspectives et limitations

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Chapitre 1. L’éolien une filière en pleine croissance : dynamismes, perspectives et limitations

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Chapitre 1. L’éolien une filière en pleine croissance : dynamismes, perspectives et limitations

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1 - 25 -
Chapitre 1. L’éolien une filière en pleine croissance : dynamismes, perspectives et limitations

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1 - 28 -
Chapitre 1. L’éolien une filière en pleine croissance : dynamismes, perspectives et limitations

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1 - 29 -
Chapitre 1. L’éolien une filière en pleine croissance : dynamismes, perspectives et limitations

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1 - 30 -
Chapitre 1. L’éolien une filière en pleine croissance : dynamismes, perspectives et limitations

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1 - 31 -
Chapitre 1. L’éolien une filière en pleine croissance : dynamismes, perspectives et limitations

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Chapitre 1. L’éolien une filière en pleine croissance : dynamismes, perspectives et limitations

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1 - 33 -
Chapitre 1. L’éolien une filière en pleine croissance : dynamismes, perspectives et limitations

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1 - 34 -
Chapitre 1. L’éolien une filière en pleine croissance : dynamismes, perspectives et limitations

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1 - 35 -
Chapitre 1. L’éolien une filière en pleine croissance : dynamismes, perspectives et limitations

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1 - 36 -
Chapitre 1. L’éolien une filière en pleine croissance : dynamismes, perspectives et limitations

1
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Chapitre 1. L’éolien une filière en pleine croissance : dynamismes, perspectives et limitations

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1 - 38 -
Chapitre 1. L’éolien une filière en pleine croissance : dynamismes, perspectives et limitations

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1 - 39 -
Chapitre 1. L’éolien une filière en pleine croissance : dynamismes, perspectives et limitations

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Chapitre 1. L’éolien une filière en pleine croissance : dynamismes, perspectives et limitations

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1 - 41 -
Chapitre 1. L’éolien une filière en pleine croissance : dynamismes, perspectives et limitations

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1 - 42 -
Chapitre 1. L’éolien une filière en pleine croissance : dynamismes, perspectives et limitations

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1 - 43 -
Chapitre 1. L’éolien une filière en pleine croissance : dynamismes, perspectives et limitations

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1 - 44 -
Chapitre 1. L’éolien une filière en pleine croissance : dynamismes, perspectives et limitations

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1 - 45 -
Chapitre 1. L’éolien une filière en pleine croissance : dynamismes, perspectives et limitations

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Chapitre II. Energie Eolienne : barrières, politiques de soutien et expériences
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Chapitre II. Energie Eolienne : barrières, politiques de soutien et expériences
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Chapitre II. Energie Eolienne : barrières, politiques de soutien et expériences
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Chapitre II. Energie Eolienne : barrières, politiques de soutien et expériences
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Développement de l'éolien au RU
3500 60%
52,0% 3093
52,0% 50%
3000 Capacité installée
45,2%
% Croissance annuelle 40%
37,0% 2448

% Croissance annuelle
2500
30%
25,5% 1961
2000 22,2% 26,3% 20%
MW

14,3% 1611
1500 1351 10%
7,2%
3,7%
0%
1000 889
649 -10%
531
357 408 423
500 -17,8% -20%

0 -30%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
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1

Développement de l'éolien en France


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Chapitre II. Energie Eolienne : barrières, politiques de soutien et expériences
1

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

1
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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

Réquis de réponse en fréquence (MW) Fourchette de coûts de réponse en fréquence (p/kWh)

0,016
900
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Minimum
Réquis en réquence (MW)

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Fourchette de coûts de réponse en


Maximum Minimum
600 Maximum
0,01
500

fréquence (p/kWh)
0,008
400
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200
0,004
100
0,002
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 0
Capacité éolienne installée (GW) 0 5 10 15 20 25
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1 1
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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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L- 6#46&E46531 871 "0!A41 +"5&A"71 8E1 ##45 71<1 OG[1 80!A41 F5#646*1 P > D 1 741 OG[1

80!A413+A46*1 P < D 1HP1

@- 6#46&E46531871"077E18E1F58E!47E15"6731<1OG[1 PPA < PRA 741OG[1 PPA > PRA 1

N- 6D1#F5411 PSpot 1

R- 71F6D180A%E#47 7341)1"A1(AE##717#41871<1 PajH 1

O- 71F6D180A%E#47 7341)1"A1&A6##717#41871<1 PajB 1

H- C!A41 8E1 F58E!47E1 v\1 PP − PR 1WU Pp = 1 58E!46531 F5+A 71W1 PR = 1


58E!4653163%7!47V1
1 1
9E1!7#1!53864653#1F5E1E371F6587180E371(7E7,16"1F7E41.47136*61$E71"717373E18E1F58E!47E1
5"6731F5E1#A1FA46!6FA465318A3#1E31 A!(1)185E&"71F6D1F7E41.4717DF6 1871"A1*AD531#E63A347<1
0,5 * (0,5 * ( Pp * PSpot − ∆ * PSpot ) + 0,5 * ( Pp * PSpot + ∆ * PAjb )) +
0,5 * (0,5 * ( Pp * PSpot − ∆ * PajH ) + 0,5 * ( Pp * PSpot + ∆ * PSpot )) 1111111111111111111111VDA8F91.5.111111111111111111111111111
== PP * PSpot + 0,25 * ∆ * PajB − 0,25 * ∆ * PajH
1
A3#1"71 A!(1)185E&"71F6D1U5E1F6D1A# 46$E7V1"71F6D187#1A%E#47 7341)1"A1(AE##71741F"E#1"731
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111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111
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+E"A46531)1"A1(AE##718A3#1"0A3371)141871SP[1741871OM[1731@GGO-11
1 - 141 -
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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

!53#464E71 E371 63!64A46531 F5E1 74471 731 F"A!71 E31 ##45 71 871 F36#653#1 F"E#1 F7*5 A34,1 E31
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1
0,5 * (0,5 * ( Pp * PSpot − ∆ * PajB ) + 0,5 * ( Pp * PSpot + ∆ * PAjB )) +
0,5 * (0,5 * ( Pp * PSpot − ∆ * PajH ) + 0,5 * ( Pp * PSpot + ∆ * PajH )) 11111111111111111111111VDA8F91.521
== PP * PSpot
1
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111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111
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1 - 142 -
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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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1 - 143 -
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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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1 - 148 -
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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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1 - 149 -
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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre III. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le court terme : l’intermittence

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Chapitre IV. La problématique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : « le crédit de capacité »

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Chapitre IV. La problématique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : « le crédit de capacité »
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Chapitre IV. La problématique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : « le crédit de capacité »
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Chapitre IV. La problématique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : « le crédit de capacité »
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Chapitre IV. La problématique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : « le crédit de capacité »
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B1E3641)1"0A.41U)1!AE#7187#15FA4653#1871 A63473A3!7,1FAA4653,1FA337,174!-V11
1
7#14AED187186#F536&6"641741806386#F536&6"64180E371!734A"71#5341F#734#18A3#1"7#1$EA4653#1!6B
87##5E#-1
1
λ
Indisponibilité ( FOR) = U = VDA8F9125$1
λ+µ

µ
Disponibilité = A = VDA8F912501
λ+µ

A3#1"7#1T$EA46531RBL1741T$EA46531RB@1"7#1FAA 547#1 λ 1741 µ 17F#7347341"7#14AED18718*A6""A3!71


741871FAA465317#F7!4637 734-17#1FAA 547#1#5341A##5!6#1)1"A1"561871F5&A&6"641871*53!465337 73411871
"A1!734A"7-11
71 !AA!4571 806386#F536&6"641 80E371 !734A"71 8F7381 871 #531 !!"71 871 *53!465337 7341 8A3#1 "71
##45 7-1 C31 7**74,1 E371 !734A"71 871 F58E!46531 "7!46$E71 F7E41 *53!4653371 731 &A#7,1 #7 6B&A#7,1 F563471 741
7D4. 71 F56347-1 063*5 A46531 *5E3671 FA1 "71 4AED1 806386#F536&6"641 UV1 8A3#1 "71 !A#1 80E371 !734A"71 871
&A#71U$E6187 A3871E31"53+1!!"71871*53!465337 734V11307#41FA#1"A1 . 71F5E1E371!734A"71871#7 6B&A#71
5E1871F56347185341"7#18 AA+7#1#5341F"E#1*$E734#17416#$E#-11
1
21 FA461 871 "063*5 A46531 87#1 4AED1 806386#F536&6"641 871 !(A!E371 87#1 !734A"7#,1 35E#1 F5E353#1
!53#4E671E314A&"7AE18718*A6""A3!718E1FA!1871F58E!4653-1714A&"7AE17#41F63!6FA"7 7341E314A&"7AE1871
F5&A&6"64#1 $E61 #34(46#71 "A1 F5&A&6"641 806386#F536&6"641 80E371 !74A6371 !AFA!641 871 F58E!46531 8A3#1 "71
##45 7-1 71 585"71 *63A"1 7#41 !53#4E641 +'!71 )1 E371 47!(36$E71 !E#6371 #6 F"71 $E61 "A+641 "7#1 !53!7F4#1
&A#6$E7#1871F5&A&6"641741F7 741"0A88646531#$E73467""7187#1E364#18A3#1"71##45 7-11
7353#1 )1 46471 807D7 F"71E31 ##45 71 "7!46$E71 !5 F5#1 871 87ED1 E364#1 871 F58E!46531
4(7 6$E71871@1741N11]1A37!187#14AED18718*A6""A3!717#F7!4637 7341871G-G@1741G-GLO1X4BMNY,1X4BMHY-1
53#6853#18A3#1E31F7 67147 F#,1$E71"A1F7 6571E3641F7E417D6#4718A3#187ED14A4#1<111
B1731#736!71A37!1E371F5&A&6"641871LBG-G@\G-MP11
B15E1)1"0A.41A37!1E371F5&A&6"641871G-G@-11

1 -163-
1
Chapitre IV. La problématique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : « le crédit de capacité »
1

1
C31 634+A341 "A1 87ED65 71 !734A"71 35E#1 A353#1 853!1 R14A4#1 F5##6&"7#1<1 "7#1 87ED1 !734A"7#1 #5341 )1
"0A.41U4A41LV,1#7E"71"A1!734A"71871@11]17#41)1"0A.41U4A41@V,1#7E"71"A1!734A"71871N11]17#41)1"0A.41U4A41NV1
741 "7#1 87ED1 !734A"7#1 #5341 731 *53!465337 7341 U4A41 RV-1 A1 !53#4E!46531 8E1 4A&"7AE1 U7A&"7AE1 R-LV1
806386#F536&6"641F5E1"07D7 F"71F!87341853371"7#1#E"4A4#1!6B87##5E#-1

8696AB5C7
45657 DEF7FBA7 FE6BB5C7
7
7 7  !7
7 7 "# "$7
!7 !7 "# %$7
%7 7 "#"# "&!7
'''''''''''''77777
77777777777777777
E4D12$1E4D1%898B)F98E88A&1)FD61%4145)41=FD6741+1C725 .D1C725 4D1
1
1
5E1 87#1 4E87#1 F"E#1 4738E7#1 UA37!1 E31 +A381 35 &71 871 !734A"7#V,1 "A1 47!(36$E71 !E#6371
U35$E71 F!87 7341 741 FE471 45#1 FE6##A347V1 7#41 *$E7 7341 E46"6#71 F5E1 "A1 !53#4E!46531 8E1
585"71 871 F58E!4653-1 74471 47!(36$E71 741 731 F"A!71 E31 A"+564( 71 $E61 F7E41 .471 AE##61 E46"6#1 FA1 87#1
585"7#1$E616345+734187#1!AFA!64#1 E"46B4A4#,1 A6#135E#1173673853#1F"E#14A8-11
1
C31473A341!5 F471871!7447147!(36$E7,1"A1F5&A&6"641!E E"A463718718*A6""A3!7180E314A41871!AFA!641
X 1AF5#1"0A8864653180E371E3641871!AFA!641 C 1F#734A341E314AED18718*A6""A3!71 U 17#41853371FA1<1

VDA8F9125.1
P ( X ) = (1 − U ) P ' ( X ) + (U ) P ' ( X − C ) 1U364#1)187ED14A4#V1

P ( X ) 741 P ' ( X ) 7F#7347341"7#1F5&A&6"64#1!E E"A4637#1871"04A41871FA3371871 X 1A3A341741AF5#1


"0A88646531871 C -1U7#17DF7##653#1#534163646A"6#7#1)1 P ' ( X ) = 1 1F5E1 X ≤ 0 74 P ' ( X ) = 0 8A3#1"7#1AE47#1
!A#V-11
5E#1F5E353#1+3A"6#71"A1*5 E"A46531F5E1634+7187#1!AFA!64#1 E"46B4A41U$EA46531R-RV-1
n
P ( X ) = 1 p i P ' ( X − C i ) U364#1 E"46B14A4#V1 VDA8F912521
i =1

1
I1 n \15 &71804A4#1871"A1!734A"71
11111111 C i \1AFA!641F5E1"04A4161871"0E36414A341634+718A3#1"71##45 711

11111111 p i \1F5&A&6"641871"04A41611
5E1"71!A#13\@,153136*671$E71"0$EA465317#41$E63A"73471)1"0$EA46531R-N1
A147!(36$E71!E#6371!6471!6B87##E#1#7A1 6#71731F"A!71F5E135471A3A"#71E"467E71871*6A&6"64-1

1 -164-
1
Chapitre IV. La problématique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : « le crédit de capacité »
1

?$8$ 6!6262426D4762
1
71 585"71 871 !(A+71 #0A!$E6741 "5#1 871 "A1 !53#4E!46531 871 "A1 53545371 871 !53#5 A46531 U5E1
585"71!E E"A46*1871!(A+7V1F5E1E371F65871853371!57#F538A341)1E371A3371UPSHG1(15E1NHO1%5E#V-1
A1 4(5871 871 !53#4E!46531 8E1 585"71 !E E"A46*1 871 !(A+71 7#41 A##7J1 #6 F"7-1 21 FA461 871
"063*5 A46531871!53#5 A46531(5A6715E1%5E3A"657180E31##45 71FA46!E"67,1"71F5*6"1871!53#5 A46531
F7E41.471"A&5-1C3#E647,1531F5!5871AE1!"A##7 734187#185337#1871!53#5 A46531F5E1!(A$E71(7E71
U5E1 F5E1 !(A$E71 %5EV1 FA1 5871 8!56##A34-1 AA""5"7 734,1 "7#1 F568#1 871 !(A$E71 4A41 871 !53#5 A46531
F738A341 "A1 F65871 871 "04E871 F7E37341 .471 !A"!E"#-1 A1 F7 6571 853371 871 !741 AA3+7 7341 853371 "A1
3A"7E1871"A187 A3871871F563471A63#61$E71#A18E71AE1!5E#1871"A1F6587180A3A"#7-1

1
?8D6412521?F65414115F9FAF941417F9BF55A8F91)FD614B1
F99&4B1417F9BF55A8F9
1
71F5*6"1871!53#5 A46531467341!5 F471871"A1#A6#533A"64187#185337#-174471!AA!46#46$E717#41
63463#5$E7 7341F#734718A3#1"A1 53545371871!53#5 A4653-11
71 585"71871!(A+71A63#614A&"61F7 74180687346*671"7#17D6+73!7#1871"A187 A38715E1871"A1!(A+71
8E1##45 7,1!67#4B)B867,1$Ej6"17#41F5##6&"71871847 6371!(A$E714A41871!(A+71)17#F7!471A*631871 A6347361
"7#1!53864653#1871*5E364E7#1*A35A&"7#-1

?$8; 6!626298AEF62
1
/E#$E0)1 6!6,1 35E#1 A353#1 F#7341 741 "A&51 E31 585"71 871 F58E!46531 741 E31 585"71 871 !(A+7-1
04AF71#E63A347,18A3#1"A1 4(585"5+671+3A"7180E3714E871871#A74,1!53#6#471)1*A671"A1!5335"E4653173471
!7#1 87ED1 3A6A&"7#1 )1 4A37#1 E31 585"71 871 6#$E71 $E61 F7 741 871 $EA346*671 "71 6#$E71 8E1 ##45 7-1
0AFF"6!A46531871"A1 4(587,1F7 741FA1"A1#E6471805&47361"7#16386!7#1871#A741871*53!465337 734,1!67#4B)B
8671"716#$E71871F7471871!(A+791AA2 241:1$E61A141!641F!87 7341U3561w1R-@-LV-1

1 -165-
1
Chapitre IV. La problématique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : « le crédit de capacité »
1

X4BMNY1F!6#71"A186**73!7173471"7#1!53!7F4#18717)78A&1491)9941741871)46A4141764-171
47 71!AFA!641731FA33716386$E71"A1F747187#1!AFA!64#1871F58E!46531$E7"1$E71#5641"713637AE1871!(A+7-1
7!618F7381871"A1!AFA!641871#73717D6#4A34717418E13637AE1871!53#5 A465318E1##45 7-121)46A4141
764189A46-849A1 F6BD41 1 7)78A&1 41 )6FD7A8F91 491 B46-8741 4BA1 &)BB&41 )61 41 98-4D1 41
7F9BF55A8F91D1B,BA541
6**734#16386!7#1871*6A&6"641$E61F7 7447341803A"E71"0A8$EA4653187#1##45 7#1534141F#734#1
F!87 7341U3561w1R-@-LV-15E#1A353#1!(56#61871747361"71!6457191AA2 2426B4B871:1UCV15E1
"07#FA3!71 A4( A46$E71 8E1 35 &71 80(7E7#1 871 8*A6""A3!7,1 !67#4B)B867,1 "71 35 &71 80(7E7#1 FA1 A31
8EA341"7#$E7""7#1"A17##5E!71871F58E!4653186#F536&"71307#41FA#1#E**6#A341F5E1!5E361"073#7 &"71871"A1
87 A3871X4BMHY-1
744717#FA3!71 A4( A46$E718718*A6""A3!71F7E41.4717F#73471871"A1*AD531#E63A3471<11

n
LOLE = 1 Pi (C i − Li ) 1 VDA8F9125/1
i =1

1
I1 Ci = 1AFA!64186#F536&"71F5E1"71%5Eb(7E7161

111111111111111 Li = 136#6531871"A1!53#5 A46531F5E1"71%5Eb(7E7161

1111111111111 Pi (C i − Li ) = 15&A&6"641871"A1F7471871!(A+7191"5##15*1"5A81:1F5E1"71%5E16-1
C317F73A341"07DF"6!A4653135$E71FA1X4BMHY,1#E1"A16+E71RBO,1"A1!5E&71&"7E717F#73471"71
585"71871!53#5 A465318E1##45 7-1A18*A6""A3!7180E371!AFA!641853371 Ok 1!5346&E7A1AE1C18E1

##45 718A3#1E371F5F546531+A"71AE1F58E641871"A1F5&A&6"6418718*A6""A3!7 pk 1871!7414A41871!AFA!641741

"7135 &7180E364#18A3#1"7147 F# t k 185341"A18*A6""A3!7180E3713A"7E1 Ok 1F58E6A1E371F7471871!(A+7-1


1

1
?8D64125/1134A8F9149A6411764117)78A&14A116&B46-41
Ok A"7E18E185 714A41871FA33718A3#1"714A&"7AE18718*A6""A3!718E1##45 71871F58E!46531
t k 5 &7180E364#187147 F#18A3#1"04E87185341"A18*A6""A3!7180E3713A"7E1 Ok 1F58E6A1E371F7471871!(A+7-1

1 -166-
1
Chapitre IV. La problématique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : « le crédit de capacité »
1

1
7!617#417F#7341#5E#1*5 71 A4( A46$E71FA1<1
n
LOLE = 1 p k t k 1 VDA8F912541
k =1

1
0$EA46531R-H1F7E41.471 586*6718A3#1"71&E4180E46"6#71"714A&"7AE1871F5&A&6"64#1!E E"A4637#-1
1
1
n
LOLE = 1 Pk (t k − t k −1 ) 1 VDA8F912531
k =1

1
pk \1F5&A&6"6416386368E7""71A##5!671)1"04A418718*A6""A3!7180E371!AFA!641853371
Pk \15&A&6"641!E E"A46371871FA3371F5E1"04A41871!AFA!641 Ok 1
1
71 C1 7#41 "A+7 7341 E46"6#1 F5E1 847 6371 "7#1 !AFA!64#1 871 F58E!46531 7$E6#7#1 8A3#1
"0(56J5318E1 5731741"53+147 7-12146471807D7 F"7,1"71!645717473E1FA17C1F5E1"71&6"A31F36#65337"1
@GGHB@GLO,1731A!!581A37!1"A1C11U67!465313A"71871"0C37+67174187#11A4657#17 657#V,17#41"71
#E63A341<153173*5!71"71FA!1871F58E!4653,1F5E1371FA#18FA##71E3717#FA3!71 A4( A46$E718718E71
8718*A6""A3!71A33E7""71+A"71)1456#1(7E7#1X7CBGSY-11C17#41853!11+A"1)1N1(7E7#-15 F471473E1871"A1
#4E!4E718E1##45 71"7!46$E71*A3DA6#,1!7"A1$E63AE41)130A!!7F471$E71LG[1871!A#18718*A6""A3!718A3#1"7#1
#!3A65#1 804E871 8035"E46531 871 "05**7B87 A3871 F5E1 "A1 F65871 @GGHB@GLO1 U5E1 AE47 7341 864,1 )1
30A!!7F4718716#$E718718*A6""A3!71$E0E371A3371#E186DVSN-11
2E%5E80(E61E31 35E37AE1 8*61 #7135"71 *A!71 AED1 4E87#1871 *6A&6"64-1 C31F#73!71 80E31 6 F54A341
4AED18063#746531871"05"673,1!7#14E87#1371F5E5341FA#1.471 737#1871*AD531!"A##6$E71U 4(5871F#73471
F!87 734V-11037+6718E13734,1)1!AE#71871#A13A4E716347 6447347,1AEA1E314A647 7341F"E#1FA46!E"6711
#E45E41F5E187#14AED18063#746531871"05"6731"73#1U@GBNG[V-17#135E37AED1" 734#1#5341A&58#18A3#1"71
FAA+AF(71#E63A34-11
1

200 #AD4141(8E88A&1491)6&B49741411)6FD7A8F9189A4658AA49A41
1
7#1 #4A46#46$E7#1 5347341 $E71 8A3#1 871 35 &7ED1 FA#1 "037+671 5"673371 5!!EF71 E371 F"A!71 45#1
6 F54A34718A3#1"71&5E$E74187#137+67#113747#-105"6731#06 F5#718A3#1"7#1 6D1871F58E!4653180"7!46!641
871 !74A63#1 FA#1 871 "036531 CE5F73371 U"02""7 A+37,1 "0C#FA+37,1 "A1 A37 A81 5341 41 !64#1 )1 F"E#67E#1
7F6#7#18A3#1!744714(5#7V-1
1

111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111
SN1 71 +7#46533A671 8E1 #7AE1 8714A3#F541 A3DA6#1 7C1 U#7AED1 871 4A3#F541 80"7!46!64V,1 FA1 7D7
F"7,1
F#73471 !(A$E71 A3371 "5#1 871 #531 &6"A31 F36#65337"1 "7#1 &7#563#1 731 !AFA!641 871 F58E!46531 F5E1 F53871 AED1
!53864653#1 871 !56##A3!71 871 "A1 87 A387,1 )1 "A1 85+A46531 87#1 !734A"7#1 )1 !(A&53,1 "71 8 A345"7 7341 871 3676""7#1
!734A"7#,174!-1

1 -167-
1
Chapitre IV. La problématique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : « le crédit de capacité »
1

71!71*A64,16"1#7 &"7145#16 F54A341871!53#6871"0AFF541871"05"67318A3#1"A1$EA346*6!A46531871"A1


#A741871*53!465337 734180E31##45 718533-171 585"71!53373465337"1871"A16+E71RBN17#41 586*61A*631
80634+71 "71 58E"71 5"6731 U3561 w1 R-@-LV-1 371 35E37""71 7F#734A46531 8E1 585"71 804E871 871 #E741 7#41
F#73471#E1"A16+E71RBH1

1
?8D64125418F41D1B,BA541491)6&B49741411)6FD7A8F9189A4658AA49A41

71+AF(6$E71!6B87##5E#1F7 741806""E#471"A1 4(5871871!53#4E!465318E14A&"7AE1806386#F536&6"641


8E1FA!1871F58E!46531731F#73!71871"A1F58E!465316347 6447347-11
1

1
?8D6412531=A6A&841417F9BA6D7A8F91D1AE4D1%898B)F98E88A&1491)6&B49741411)6FD7A8F9189A4658AA49A41
1
A3#1E31F7 67147 F#,16"17#413!7##A671871!53#464E71"714A&"7AE1806386#F536&6"641871"A1F58E!46531
6347 6447347-1C3#E647,1"71 585"71806386#F536&6"641871"A1F58E!465316347 6447347185641.471634+118A3#1"71
4A&"7AE1806386#F536&6"6418E1 585"71871F58E!46531!53373465337""7-17!61F7 741FA1"A1#E6471871A"6#71"A1
!5335"E46531 73471 "71 585"71 871 F58E!46531 741 "71 585"71 !E E"A46*1 871 !(A+71 741 A63#61 871 847 6371 "71
3637AE18716#$E718E1##45 7-1111
2*631 871 !53#464E71 "71 4A&"7AE1 806386#F536&6"641 871 "A1 F58E!46531 6347 6447347,1 F"E#67E#1 4AF7#1
FA"A&"7#1#53413!7##A67#-15E#1A""53#135E#1*71AE1!A#1FA46!E"671871"A1F58E!465315"6733717DF5#1
#E1"A16+E71RBP-1

1 -168-
1
Chapitre IV. La problématique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : « le crédit de capacité »
1

?8D64125<18F41)FD6117F9BA6D7A8F91D1AE4D1418B)F98E88A&1411)D8BB9741&F84994
1
75E41 80A&58,1 6"1 7#41 6386#F73#A&"71 871 !533AZ471 "A1 3A4E71 871 "A1 7##5E!71 37341 U3647##7,1 3647##71
57337,1!A414F7,174!-V1741871!53#4E671"A186#46&E46531871F5&A&6"641A##5!671AED1#647#1807DF"564A46531
ULV-1 C3#E647,1 "A1 !533A6##A3!71 871 "A1 !5E&71 871 FE6##A3!71 87#1 4E&637#1 63#4A""7#1 7#41 3!7##A671 A*631 871
!533AZ471"7#1!53864653#1871F58E!4653187#1 A!(637#1U@V-1A1!5 &63A6#531871!7#187ED1FAA 547#1F7 741
871 !A"!E"71 E31 585"71 #6 F"6*61 871 "A1 F58E!46531 871 "05"6731 U19CV1 1 "7$E7"1 7#41 7F#7341 FA1 "A1
86#F536&6"641871F58E!46531871"05"6731UCV1UNV-11

?$$8 E8AB98FB87262429488B2F2567B2

2E%5E80(E6,1 "7#1 47!(36$E7#1 871 F36#6531 U731 A3+"A6#2 91 964AB872 BA1:V1 F7 7447341 871 #6 E"71 "A1
3647##71 8E1 37341 (7E71 FA1 (7E71 F5E1 E371 +6531 #F!6*6$E71 A37!1 E371 F!6#6531 #5E37341 #A46#*A6#A347-1
05&4734653180E371&A#7187185337#18713647##7#18713734#17"#14A34145#186**6!6"7,1"A1FA464653187#13647##7#1
87137341#07**7!4E71)1"0A687180E37186#46&E465318714F71]76&E""-1
7#1 4E87#1 871 #A741 A"6#7#1 FA1 X4BPMY1 741 X=2BGHY1 F#7347341 "0E46"6#A46531 80E31 585"71 871
#67#1 47 F57""7#1 AFF7"7#1 2E45B7+7##6371 1573371 "6##A3471 5E1 2121 U917FB34696AA8562 65872
7569462V1F5E1F3561E371#67187185337#18713647##718E1373418A3#1E371+6531FA46!E"657-1
A13647##718E137341F5E1E371"5!A"6#A46531#F!6*6$E71F7E41.471#6 E"71FA1<1

VS1t = µ t + σ t . y t VDA8F9125<1
1
VS t 1 7F#73471 "A1 3647##71 8E1 37341 #6 E"71 F5E1 E371 (7E71 t 1 731 473A341 !5 F471 871 "A1 573371

4(56$E71(5A671 µ t 741871"0!A414F7 σ t -17#13A"7E#1(5A67#1871 y t 1#53415&473E7#1731E46"6#A341"0T$EA46531

RBM,115I11 φ i (i = 1,..., n) 74 θ j ( j = 1,..., m) #5341"7#1FAA 547#18E1 585"71212-1

y t = φ1 y t −1 + φ 2 y t − 2 + ... + φ n y t − n + α t − θ 1α t −1 − θ 2α t − 2 − ... − θ mα t − m 1 VDA8F9125 1

1 -169-
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Chapitre IV. La problématique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : « le crédit de capacité »
1

I1 α t 1 7#41 "71 &E641 &"A3!1 35 A"1 8E1 F5!7##E#1 A37!1 E371 573371 J51 741 E371 3A6A3!71

σ a 2 U α t ∈ NID (0, σ a2 ) 74V-1 05871 [n, m] 1 741 "7#1 3A"7E#1 87#1 FAA 547#1 8E1 585"71 2121 F#734#1
8A3#1 "0$EA46531 R-M1 #5341 5&473E7#1 )1 FA461 80E371 &A#71 871 85337#1 871 3647##71 8E1 37341 (6#456$E71 741 871 "A1
4(5871871+7##65313531"63A671871 56387#1!A#-1
371*56#1"71 585"7187#1#67#147 F57""7#1871"A13647##718E1373414A&"6,1"A1#6 E"A46531871"A13647##718E1
37341F7E41.471!A"!E"71+'!71)1"0T$EA46531RBP-11
A1F"A+7187185337#1#6 E"717#4173#E64718636#71731 N ai 163473A""7#,1741"A13647##71#6 E"71AE1F56341

!734A"1 #7A1 VS a (i = 1,..., N a ) -1 A1 F5&A&6"641 Pai 1 80E371 3647##71 8E1 37341 8A3#1 E31 63473A""71

VS a (i = 1,..., N a ) 7#41 A"5#1 5&473E71 #7"531 "0T$EA46531 RBLG1 731 473A341 !5 F471 8E1 35 &71

N ai (i = 1,..., N a ) 87185337#18713647##718E137341#6 E"7#18A3#1"063473A""7-1X=2BGHY11

Pai = N ai /(8760 * N y ) 1 VDA8F9125$91

A3#1"0T$EA46531RBLG,1 N y 17F#73471"7135 &7180A337#1!(A346""5337#-1

A18 A!(71 A4( A46$E71F#73471!6B87##E#17#4186**6!6"71)1 74471731F"A!71#61"0A!!5#1)1E371&A#71


871 85337#1 !5 F"5471 871 3647##71 871 3734#1 80E31 #6471 FA46!E"671 7#41 6 F5##6&"7-1 46731 $E71 "A1 86#46&E46531
]76&E""1 #5641 "A+7 7341 E46"6#71 F5E1 !AA!46#71 "A1 F5&A&6"641 8E1 37341 8A3#1 E31 #6471 FA46!E"67,1 8A3#1
!74A637#1+653#,1"A186#46&E46531871"A13647##718E1373417#41F5!(7180E37186#46&E4653135 A"7-171#6471F7E41
853!1.471!AA!46#1A37!1E37186#46&E4653135 A"71FA1#A1 573371 µ 741#531!A414F7 σ 1A33E7"#-1
7#17!(7!(7#17**7!4E7#1)1"03637#6418719A#8A4!(7fA31AE1A3A8A1X4BMH&Y1,X=2BGHY1,X=2B
GH&Y1 ,X=2BGSY1 ,X=2BGPY11 F5F5#7341 E31 585"71 +3A"1 871 3647##7#1 8E1 37341 )1 FA461 871 "A1 86#46&E46531
35 A"1 871 F5&A&6"64-1 7!61 F7E41 .471 E"467E7 7341 E46"6#1 F5E1 5&47361 "A1 #54671 871 FE6##A3!71 80E371
4E&63715"67337163#4A""718A3#1E31#6471#F!6*6$E7-1
A18 A!(71)1#E63717D6+7145E4180A&581871!533AZ471 µ 1741 σ 1A33E7"#1F5E1!(A$E71"5!A"6#A4653-1
A186#46&E46531871F5&A&6"641!53#68571"A13647##718E13734173471G1741LG σ 1A*63187147361!5 F47187#13A"7E#1
7D4. 7#-1 A1 86#46&E46531 7#41 8636#71 FA1 E31 35 &71 N b 1 871 FA#1 8063473A""7#,1 !(A$E71 FA#1 F#73471 E371

"53+E7E18710σ 741"7#13A"7E#18E1F56341!734A"1871!(A$E71FA#1#5341 VS bi (i = 1,..., N b ) 1UE3187#1FA#1A1


Nb
E3713A"7E18E1!7347 µ V-11X=2BGHY1

171 !A"!E"1 87#1 FA#1 871 VSbi 1 7#41 8*6361 FA1 "0T$EA46531 RBLL1 741 "A1 F5&A&6"641 871 !(A$E71 FA#1 7#41
!A"!E"71#7"531"0T$EA46531RBL@-1
71!A"!E"1871"A186#46&E46531871F5&A&6"641F5E1E3718636#6531871&1FA#17#41<1
11

111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111
SR1183547135 A"7 7341741638F738A 734186#46&E1

1 -170-
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Chapitre IV. La problématique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : « le crédit de capacité »
1

VS bi = µ + (10σ / Nb) * (i − 0.5 * Nb) Si N b FA1


VDA8F9125$$1
= µ + (10σ / Nb ) * (i − 0.5 * ( Nb + 1)) Si N b 6 FA6

Pbi = N bi /(8760 * N y ) 1 VDA8F9125$01

1
I1 N bi 17#41"7135 &7180!(A346""53#18713647##718E137341#6 E"718A3#1"71FA# VS bi (i = 1,..., N b ) -1
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=A861 F#73471 731 X=2BGHY1 "71 35 &71 871 FA#1 N b 636 A"1 F5E1 A&5E461 )1 E31 585"71 )1 (AE47#1
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#6 F"6*671F5E1E31 N b \1H-10$EA46531#6 F"6*6717#41F#73471!6B87##5E#-1

VS bi = µ + (i − 3) * (5σ / 3) Pour (i = 1,...6) 1 VDA8F9125$.1

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!A"!E"#-
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85637341F7 744718717 F"61"714A&"7AE1 53418A3#1"A16+E71RBM-1
1

?8D64125 1E4D141)6FEE88A&1411-8A4BB41D1-49A1B4F9118BA68EDA8F919F65141)6FEE88A&1E"G1
1

?$$$ "F9626242F8AA47629F8B624923867762
1
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871!(A$E714E&637163#4A""718A3#1"A1!734A"715"673371FA46!E"657-1063*5 A46531AFF5471FA1"A1!5E&71871
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1 -171-
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Chapitre IV. La problématique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : « le crédit de capacité »
1

3647##7#1 !E4B631U!6V,1 A4781 UV,1 1 !E4B5**1U!5V1#5341 "7#1 FAA 547#1 !AA!46#46$E7#1 871 "A1 !5E&71 871
FE6##A3!71$E61F7 74473411A63#61871"A17!53#4E671U6+E71RBLGV-11

?8D64125$91FD6E4141)D8BB9741%D941AD6E8941&F84994

5E1E3713647##718E13734185337 v ,135E#1F5E353#1853!1!A"!E"71"A1FE6##A3!71871#5467-17""7B!617#41
!A"!E"71+'!71)1"A17"A46531#E63A347<1
1
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111111111111111111111
11111111111111111111\11G111111111111111111111111111111 0 ≤ v ≤ vci 1
11#75"1111111111111111111111\11U2h43h3@1V11111111 vci ≤ v ≤ vr
11111111111111111111\1111111111111111111111111111111 vr ≤ v ≤ vco 1 VDA8F9125$21
11111111111111111111\11G1111111111111111111111111111111 v ≥ vco

1
7#1!53#4A347#12,1417411F7E37341.471!A"!E"7#1)1FA46187#1$EA4653#1#E63A347#1XBPNY1<1
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1 7 D vci + vr A 4
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A= 5vci(vci + vr ) − 4(vci * vr )B 8 21 VDA8F9125$/1


vci − vr 56 C 2vr 9 23
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1 7 D vci + vr A
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(vci − vr )2 65 C 2vr 9 32
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1 7 D vci + vr A 4
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C= 5 2 − 4B 8 21 VDA8F9125$31
(vci − vr )2 56 C 2vr 9 23
1

?$$; 6!62A8D8 8262429FB872867762

1 -172-
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Chapitre IV. La problématique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : « le crédit de capacité »
1

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1 -173-
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Chapitre IV. La problématique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : « le crédit de capacité »
1

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1 -174-
1
Chapitre IV. La problématique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : « le crédit de capacité »
1

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Chapitre IV. La problématique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : « le crédit de capacité »
1

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1 -176-
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Chapitre IV. La problématique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : « le crédit de capacité »
1

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1 -177-
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Chapitre IV. La problématique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : « le crédit de capacité »
1

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1 -178-
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Chapitre IV. La problématique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : « le crédit de capacité »
1

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1 -179-
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Chapitre IV. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : le crédit de capacité

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1
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F5E1F58E671"714A&"7AE1806386#F536&6"641454A"18E1##45 71871"04E87-15 71"A14E&6371871*73!71A1E371
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80A5386##7 734187#1!(6**7#1871"05E46"163*5 A46$E7-111
1
1
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1
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1 -180 -
1
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Chapitre IV. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : le crédit de capacité

22#11 22#1
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8A3#1"71##45 7-11

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Chapitre IV. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : le crédit de capacité

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1

1 -182 -
1
1
Chapitre IV. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : le crédit de capacité

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1 -183 -
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Chapitre IV. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : le crédit de capacité

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1 -184 -
1
1
Chapitre IV. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : le crédit de capacité

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1

1 -185 -
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Chapitre IV. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : le crédit de capacité

Evaluation de LOLE (Système RTS -- -48MW Th)


12

10

8 Lole Original
Lole (2*Capacité)
Lole (h/an)

6 Lole (2* No. Unités)


Lole Original (cas 2)

0
0 75 135 210 285 360 457,5 487,5 510 517,5 525

MW (éolien)

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Chapitre IV. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : le crédit de capacité

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Chapitre IV. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : le crédit de capacité

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Chapitre IV. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : le crédit de capacité

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Chapitre IV. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : le crédit de capacité

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Chapitre IV. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : le crédit de capacité

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Chapitre IV. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : le crédit de capacité

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PREVISION A L’HORIZON (2015/2020)

Coût des énergies Parc de Production Demande

METHODE DEVELOPPEE

1 Méthode de Calcul
De l’intermittence

Etudes1 de sensibilité
(CCO, LOLE, FC)

1 ANALYSES DE RESULTATS

1
?8D641250/18&AF41)6F)FB&41)FD614177D141%89A4658AA497419B1
D91B,BA5416&41

1 -197 -
1
1
Chapitre IV. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : le crédit de capacité

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1 -198 -
1
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Chapitre IV. La problématique technique de l’insertion de l’éolien dans le long terme : le crédit de capacité

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1 -199 -
1
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Conclusions et perspectives
1

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1 -201 -
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Conclusions et perspectives
1

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6A3A"#71871"66347 64473!71871"65"673135E#1A1F7 6#1871#5E"737187ED1$E7#4653#-1
7 657 7341 8A3#1 "71 !5E4B47 7,1 871 *54#1 4AED1 871 F34A46531 871 "65"6731 !5 F5 7445341
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86$E6"6&A+7-1
5#1 871 !71 4A3A6"1 871 7!(7!(7,1 35E#1 35E#1 #5 7#1 !53#A!#1 )1 "64E871 871 "66 FA!41 871 "A1 F58E!46531
6347 6447347,1 F63!6FA"7 7341 5"67337,1 8A3#1 "71 #7AE1 "7!46$E71 741 8A3#1 "71 A!(1 86$E6"6&A+71 36A1 "71
5+"7 734187#1!A4#1$E617318!5E"7-15E#1A353#16337#46+E1"66347A!4653173471"7#1#4A4+67#1871+7#46531871
"66347 64473!71U"7#1 !A36# 7#186A%E#47 73415E1F3A"64#V1741"7#1F5"646$E7#18063!64A4653-1CE1+A81871!74471
4E87,135E#1A353#1!53!"E1$E71"7#1F5"646$E7#18063!64A46531F5##587341E371*547163*"E73!718A3#1"A1+7#4653187#1
!5A4#180$E6"6&A+718A1)1"06347 64473!71871"05"6731FE6#$E07""7#1567347341"06347A!46531871"A1*6"65715"673371
5E13531A37!1"71 A!(1871"0"7!46!641741U#61"05"67317#418A3#1"71 A!(V17F#7347341"A1F63!6FA"71#5E!71871
8E!46531 871 7373E#1 8E1 F58E!47E1 5"6731 U853!1 8E1 6#$E71 F5E1 "7#1 6337#46##7E#1 87#1 F5%74#1 5"673#V-1
5E#1 A353#1 6#1 731 36873!71 $E71 #7"531 "A1 F5"646$E71 8063!64A46531 731 F"A!7,1 "A1 7#F53#A&6"641 #E1 "7#1
5+"7 734#1 87#1 !A4#1 F7E41 .471 A!!5871 AED1 86**734#1 A!47E#1 U+7#46533A67,1 F58E!47E,1 7#F53#A&"71
80$E6"6&7V1 A6#1 "7#1 35"E 7#1 871 F58E!46531 6347 64473471 7#47341 E31 73%7E1 6 F54A341 63463#5$E71 )1

1 -202 -
1
1
Conclusions et perspectives
1

"05+A36#A465318E1 A!(-17#1 A!(#1U731F"7637135"E46531A!4E7""7 734V17$E657341853!1E371A8AF4A46531


F5E1F53871AED18*6#180634+A46531871"A1F58E!465316347 64473471871*AD5315F46 A"7-174471A8AF4A46531
85641 #71 *A671<1 LV1 731 473A341 !5 F471 87#1 "6 647#1 871 F36#6531 871 "A1 F58E!46531 5"67337,1 731 8E6#A341
"0!(A3!71 80A!4EA"6#A46531 8E1 F5+A 71 871 F58E!46531 @V1 731 F5*64A341 8E1 *56#5337 7341 871 "05"6731 )1
"0!(7""71 +5+AF(6$E71 741 "A1 636 6#A46531 871 "077E1 +"5&A"1 #E1 "A1 F58E!46531 741 1 NV1 731 63!64A341 "71
F58E!47E1)16337#4618A3#1"0A "65A4653187#15E46"#1871F36#653136A1E371F3A"6417F#734A341AE1 67ED1"71
!5A4180$E6"6&A+71U"71!(56D1#E1E3185E&"71F6D15E1E31F6D1E36$E71856417*"471"71!5A41%E#47V-11
7ED65 7 734,18A3#1"A1$EA465 71FA4671#E1"A1&A#71871 4(587#14E867#18A3#1"A1"644A4E7,135E#1
A353#1 F5F5#1 E371 4E871 #E1 "A1 *6A&6"641 87#1 #7AED1 731 F#73!71 871 "A1 F58E!46531 6347 6447347-1 74471
7!(7!(71A1F541#E1"71837"5FF7 734180E31A"+564( 71F7 744A34180634+71"71*A!47E16347 6447341871
"05"6731 8A3#1 "A1 #A741 87#1 #7AED1 "7!46$E7#-1 07#41 8A3#1 !71 !5347D471 $E71 35E#1 A353#1 745E31 "A1
86 73#6531871"53+147 71A##5!671)1"06347 64473!71871"05"673-15E#1A353#13A"E1)1"0A687187#1#6 E"A4653#1
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47"#1$E71"714AED18663#746531871"65"673,1"A1#A741871*53!465337 734187#1#7AED1741"71!8641871!AFA!641871
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8063#746531871"05"6731741"71!8641871!AFA!641871"05"673-15E135#1#7AED187147#4,135E#1A353#1 5341$E71
!7#187ED1FAA 547#1#5341!5"#1FA1E371*53!4653185341"71!8641871!AFA!641#718+A871"5#$E71"714AED1
8063#746531871"05"6731AE+ 7347-1A1+3A"6#A4653136A1E371*53!46531 A4( A46$E718F7381*547 734187#1
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5&%7!46*#1#E1"714AED18063#746531871"05"673147"1$E71"71!8641871!AFA!641871"05"673174185637341.4716+5E7ED1
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1
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731!533A6##A3!71871!AE#7#1187#1!534A6347#147!(36$E7#187#1#7AED1"7!46$E7#17418E1 A!(1871"0"7!46!64-1
7#1 4E87#1 8735341 853!1 #71 F5E#E6371 8A3#1 "71 !A"!E"1 8E1 4AED1 5F46 A"1 80634+A46531 871 "05"673-1 7"A1
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636 6#A46531871!7#1!5A4#18A3#1"71 A6346731871"A1!53463E641871#736!71741871"A1#A741871*53!465337 734-111
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86634+A46531 871 "65"673-1 66 FA!41 871 "66347 64473!71 871 "65"6731 3!7##6471 73!571 86.471 !AA!46#71 86E371

1 -203 -
1
1
Conclusions et perspectives
1

*AD531F"E#184A6""1#E1"673#7 &"718E1#7AE1"7!46$E717418E1 A!(1871"6"7!46!641FA18718637#14AED1871


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47!(35"5+67#1 U"A1 #A741 8E1 #7AE1 A63#61 $E71 "7#1 8#$E6"6&7#1 8E1 A!(1 #75341 86**734#1 F5E1 86**734#1
4AED18063#74653V-1C317**74,1"A13A4E7187#16 FA!4#185641.471687346*61741$EA346*61F5E1"7#186**734#14AED1871
F34A46531871"65"6731741F5E1"7#186**7347#1!(7""7#187147 F#-171F"E#,1"A1F5&" A46$E71871"A13A6A&6"641
85641!53#6871191"6A&#73!71454A"18E137341:174185641#6A346!6F71#E1E3718*63646531#E**6#A347117415F46 6#718E1
FA!187#1#737#-1111
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1

1 -204 -
1
1
Références Bibliographiques
1

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1 -205 -
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1
Références Bibliographiques
1

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