2 Entrega Pronósticos, Error, Cantidades Espesíficas 21 Abril

CARNE DE RES
Pronóstico
Año Mes Demanda Et |Et| E2t %Et
PMS (N:3)
1 2856
2 5963
3 1848
4 4535 3555.57 979.88 979.88 960165.62 22%
5 2352 4115.50 -1763.78 1763.78 3110936.61 75%
6 1260 2911.64 -1651.80 1651.80 2728437.98 131%
2015
7 7055 2715.67 4339.47 4339.47 18831003.31 62%
8 3360 3555.57 -195.98 195.98 38406.62 6%
9 2940 3891.53 -951.88 951.88 906082.82 32%
10 6971 4451.46 2519.69 2519.69 6348850.23 36%
11 3864 4423.46 -559.93 559.93 313523.47 14%
12 6467 4591.44 1875.77 1875.77 3518517.12 29%
13 6004 5767.30 236.63 236.63 55994.23 4%
14 5327 5444.89 -117.46 117.46 13796.96 2%
15 1184 5932.86 -4748.98 4748.98 22552834.10 401%
16 3044 4171.74 -1127.50 1127.50 1271251.86 37%
17 8287 3185.18 5101.93 5101.93 26029676.36 62%
18 1691 4171.74 -2480.50 2480.50 6152859.00 147%
2016
19 7695 4340.87 3354.31 3354.31 11251373.49 44%
20 1691 5891.18 -4199.93 4199.93 17639414.09 248%
21 3044 3692.56 -648.31 648.31 420307.65 21%
22 4651 4143.56 507.37 507.37 257428.50 11%
23 2452 3128.81 -676.50 676.50 457650.67 28%
24 2706 3382.49 -676.50 676.50 457650.67 25%
25 2127 3269.74 -1143.00 1143.00 1306446.14 54%
26 2813 2428.35 384.44 384.44 147796.30 14%
27 1029 2548.51 -1519.44 1519.44 2308700.09 148%
28 4665 1989.54 2675.58 2675.58 7158745.36 57%
29 6860 2835.66 4024.81 4024.81 16199086.59 59%
30 4871 4184.89 686.05 686.05 470660.44 14%
2017
31 6380 5465.51 914.73 914.73 836729.68 14%
32 6723 6037.21 686.05 686.05 470660.44 10%
33 2401 5991.48 -3590.31 3590.31 12890343.67 150%
34 4391 5168.22 -777.52 777.52 604537.19 18%
35 2058 4505.04 -2446.90 2446.90 5987323.81 119%
36 3224 2950.00 274.42 274.42 75305.67 9%
37 1495 3224.42 -1729.63 1729.63 2991632.15 116%
38 4724 2259.12 2464.41 2464.41 6073323.24 52%
39 2750 3147.58 -397.17 397.17 157744.04 14%
40 5620 2989.57 2630.83 2630.83 6921242.90 47%
41 5860 4364.78 1494.79 1494.79 2234388.85 26%
42 5441 4743.46 697.57 697.57 486600.24 13%
2018
43 957 5640.33 -4683.67 4683.67 21936733.21 490%
44 4903 4085.75 817.15 817.15 667734.69 17%
45 5501 3766.86 1733.95 1733.95 3006593.64 32%
46 5919 3786.79 2132.56 2132.56 4547825.41 36%
47 1674 5441.03 -3766.86 3766.86 14189262.96 225%
48 4245 4364.78 -119.58 119.58 14300.09 3%
49 3946.24
50 3946.24
51 3946.24
52 3946.24
53 3946.24
54 3946.24
2019
2019
55 3946.24
Medidas de desempeño
56 3946.24
57 3946.24 ME = 12.43
58 3946.24 MAD = 1789.01
59 3946.24 MSE = 5222219.52
60 3946.24 MAPE = 70%
Promedio Móvil Simple

9000 3500.00
9000
8000 8000
3000.00
7000 7000
2500.00
6000 6000
5000 2000.00
5000
4000 4000
1500.00
3000 3000
1000.00
2000 2000
500.00
1000 1000
0 0.00
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 0 02 24
Demanda Pronóstico
CARNE DE CERDO
Pronóstico
PMS (N:3)
1 877.60
2 640.40
3 1564.17
4 2063.13 1027.39 1035.74 1035.74 1072766.44 50%
5 837.68 1422.57 -584.89 584.89 342092.84 70%
6 1061.70 1488.33 -426.63 426.63 182010.52 40%
2015
7 1061.70 1320.84 -259.14 259.14 67152.74 24%
8 2024.68 987.03 1037.65 1037.65 1076723.23 51%
9 1950.23 1382.69 567.53 567.53 322092.33 29%
10 1416.86 1678.87 -262.00 262.00 68646.01 18%
11 1986.23 1797.26 188.98 188.98 35712.02 10%
12 1331.62 1784.44 -452.82 452.82 205047.12 34%
13 479.91 1578.24 -1098.33 1098.33 1206332.85 229%
14 916.98 1265.92 -348.94 348.94 121755.95 38%
15 1990.87 909.50 1081.37 1081.37 1169360.45 54%
16 2243.16 1129.26 1113.90 1113.90 1240775.41 50%
17 809.21 1717.00 -907.79 907.79 824084.30 112%
18 2509.02 1681.08 827.94 827.94 685477.10 33%
2016
19 2150.81 1853.80 297.01 297.01 88217.17 14%
20 1359.81 1823.01 -463.20 463.20 214554.77 34%
21 1318.25 2006.55 -688.30 688.30 473756.02 52%
22 1359.81 1609.62 -249.81 249.81 62405.16 18%
23 2475.65 1345.96 1129.69 1129.69 1276209.97 46%
24 1108.59 1717.90 -609.31 609.31 371263.04 55%
25 2916.77 1648.02 1268.76 1268.76 1609741.33 43%
26 581.94 2167.01 -1585.06 1585.06 2512418.08 272%
27 1540.20 1535.77 4.43 4.43 19.58 0%
28 3081.20 1679.64 1401.57 1401.57 1964386.89 45%
29 1399.71 1734.45 -334.74 334.74 112052.37 24%
30 1508.67 2007.04 -498.37 498.37 248370.83 33%
2017
31 553.21 1996.53 -1443.32 1443.32 2083173.82 261%
32 932.37 1153.86 -221.49 221.49 49058.22 24%
33 935.58 998.08 -62.50 62.50 3906.74 7%
34 2809.33 807.05 2002.28 2002.28 4009133.03 71%
35 2409.25 1559.09 850.15 850.15 722760.97 35%
36 827.50 2051.38 -1223.88 1223.88 1497894.33 148%
37 519.57 2015.36 -1495.78 1495.78 2237371.82 288%
38 3033.24 1252.11 1781.13 1781.13 3172437.60 59%
39 1220.06 1460.10 -240.05 240.05 57622.65 20%
40 3333.21 1590.96 1742.25 1742.25 3035429.81 52%
41 1085.61 2528.83 -1443.22 1443.22 2082893.89 133%
42 3288.39 1879.62 1408.76 1408.76 1984617.85 43%
2018
43 1734.21 2569.07 -834.86 834.86 696988.31 48%
44 1703.47 2036.07 -332.60 332.60 110621.15 20%
45 2952.42 2242.02 710.40 710.40 504663.47 24%
46 1703.47 2130.03 -426.56 426.56 181955.12 25%
47 1516.25 2119.79 -603.53 603.53 364253.23 40%
48 2474.22 2057.38 416.83 416.83 173750.66 17%
49 1897.98
50 1897.98
51 1897.98
52 1897.98
53 1897.98
54 1897.98
2019
2019
55 1897.98
56 1897.98
57 1897.98 ME = 39.32
58 1897.98 MAD = 799.19
59 1897.98 MSE = 900487.94
60 1897.98 MAPE = 62%

3500.00
9000 10000.00
9000
8000 9000.00
8000
3000.00
8000.00
7000 7000
2500.00 7000.00
6000 6000
6000.00
2000.00
5000 5000
5000.00
4000
1500.00 4000
4000.00
3000 3000
1000.00 3000.00
2000 2000
2000.00
500.00
1000 1000
1000.00
0.00
0 0.00
0
0 0 2 2 4 4 6 6 8 8 101012121414 1616 1818 2020 2222 2424 2626 28
28 30
30 32
32 34
34 36
36 38
38 40
40 42
42 44
44 46 48 50 0 02 24 4 6
Demanda Pronóstico
CARNE DE POLLO
Pronóstico
PMS (N:3)
1 2596.54
2 3462.05
3 4500.67
4 5193.08 3519.76 1673.33 1673.33 2800020.51 32%
5 6058.59 4385.27 1673.33 1673.33 2800020.51 28%
6 6577.90 5250.78 1327.12 1327.12 1761249.52 20%
2015
7 6924.11 5943.19 980.92 980.92 962194.92 14%
8 7443.42 6520.20 923.21 923.21 852324.91 12%
9 7270.31 6981.81 288.50 288.50 83234.85 4%
10 8135.83 7212.61 923.21 923.21 852324.91 11%
11 8655.14 7616.52 1038.62 1038.62 1078723.71 12%
12 7962.72 8020.43 -57.70 57.70 3329.39 1%
13 5533.61 8251.23 -2717.62 2717.62 7385456.58 49%
14 5994.74 7383.82 -1389.08 1389.08 1929542.09 23%
15 6571.16 6497.03 74.14 74.14 5496.05 1%
16 6686.44 6033.17 653.27 653.27 426766.05 10%
17 6340.59 6417.45 -76.86 76.86 5906.80 1%
18 6686.44 6532.73 153.71 153.71 23627.19 2%
2016
19 6917.01 6571.16 345.85 345.85 119612.63 5%
20 5879.46 6648.02 -768.56 768.56 590679.66 13%
21 6225.31 6494.31 -268.99 268.99 72358.26 4%
22 6628.80 6340.59 288.21 288.21 83064.33 4%
23 6917.01 6244.52 672.49 672.49 452239.11 10%
24 7262.86 6590.38 672.49 672.49 452239.11 9%
25 5980.51 6936.23 -955.72 955.72 913392.93 16%
26 6366.35 6720.13 -353.78 353.78 125159.48 6%
27 6173.43 6536.57 -363.14 363.14 131873.79 6%
28 6559.27 6173.43 385.84 385.84 148872.00 6%
29 6752.19 6366.35 385.84 385.84 148872.00 6%
30 6848.65 6494.96 353.69 353.69 125093.83 5%
2017
31 7041.57 6720.04 321.53 321.53 103383.33 5%
32 6945.11 6880.80 64.31 64.31 4135.33 1%
33 7330.95 6945.11 385.84 385.84 148872.00 5%
34 7427.41 7105.87 321.53 321.53 103383.33 4%
35 7427.41 7234.49 192.92 192.92 37218.00 3%
36 7234.49 7395.25 -160.77 160.77 25845.83 2%
37 6033.82 7363.10 -1329.28 1329.28 1766988.47 22%
38 6188.53 6898.57 -710.04 710.04 504154.84 11%
39 6807.39 6485.61 321.77 321.77 103537.74 5%
40 6962.10 6343.25 618.85 618.85 382979.40 9%
41 7116.81 6652.67 464.14 464.14 215425.91 7%
42 6962.10 6962.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0%
2018
43 7271.53 7013.67 257.86 257.86 66489.48 4%
44 7271.53 7116.81 154.71 154.71 23936.21 2%
45 7426.24 7168.38 257.86 257.86 66489.48 3%
46 7658.31 7323.10 335.21 335.21 112367.22 4%
47 7735.67 7452.03 283.64 283.64 80452.27 4%
48 8122.45 7606.74 515.71 515.71 265957.91 6%
49 7838.81
50 7838.81
51 7838.81
52 7838.81
53 7838.81
54 7838.81
2019
2019
55 7838.81
56 7838.81
57 7838.81 ME = 181.29
58 7838.81 MAD = 588.03
59 7838.81 MSE = 629895.38
60 7838.81 MAPE = 9%

10000.00
9000
9000.00
8000
8000.00
7000
7000.00
6000
6000.00
5000
5000.00
4000
4000.00
3000
3000.00
2000
2000.00
1000
1000.00
0.00
0
0 0 2 2 4 4 6 6 8 8 1010 1212 1414 1616 1818 20
20 22
22 24
24 26
26 28
28 30
30 32 34 36 38
38 40
40 42
42 44
44 46
46 48
48 50
50
Demanda Pronóstico
CARNE DE RES
Pronóstico
PMP t w
1 2856 1 0.10
2 5963 2 0.40
3 1848 3 0.50
4 4535 3594.76 940.69 940.69 884888.64 21%
5 2352 3603.16 -1251.45 1251.45 1566120.27 53%
6 1260 3174.81 -1914.97 1914.97 3667095.89 152%
2015
7 7055 2024.15 5030.99 5030.99 25310820.13 71%
8 3360 4266.68 -907.09 907.09 822810.99 27%
9 2940 4627.84 -1688.19 1688.19 2849998.87 57%
10 6971 3519.17 3451.98 3451.98 11916157.00 50%
11 3864 4997.39 -1133.86 1133.86 1285642.17 29%
12 6467 5014.19 1453.02 1453.02 2111274.87 22%
13 6004 5476.13 527.80 527.80 278568.05 9%
14 5327 5975.20 -647.77 647.77 419609.08 12%
15 1184 5712.01 -4528.13 4528.13 20503989.55 382%
16 3044 3323.30 -279.06 279.06 77872.12 9%
17 8287 2528.41 5758.70 5758.70 33162583.15 69%
18 1691 5479.64 -3788.39 3788.39 14351925.00 224%
2016
19 7695 4464.89 3230.28 3230.28 10434721.30 42%
20 1691 5352.80 -3661.55 3661.55 13406947.87 217%
21 3044 4092.82 -1048.57 1048.57 1099505.73 34%
22 4651 2968.14 1682.79 1682.79 2831785.03 36%
23 2452 3712.29 -1259.98 1259.98 1587547.27 51%
24 2706 3390.95 -684.96 684.96 469163.44 25%
25 2127 2799.01 -672.27 672.27 451944.68 32%
26 2813 2391.00 421.79 421.79 177907.49 15%
27 1029 2527.69 -1498.62 1498.62 2245872.72 146%
28 4665 1852.33 2812.79 2812.79 7911802.07 60%
29 6860 3025.47 3835.00 3835.00 14707244.64 56%
30 4871 5399.19 -528.26 528.26 279054.58 11%
2017
31 6380 5646.17 734.07 734.07 538859.14 12%
32 6723 5824.54 898.72 898.72 807700.39 13%
33 2401 6400.82 -3999.65 3999.65 15997230.79 167%
34 4391 4527.91 -137.21 137.21 18826.42 3%
35 2058 3828.14 -1770.00 1770.00 3132904.18 86%
36 3224 3025.47 198.95 198.95 39582.54 6%
37 1495 2874.54 -1379.75 1379.75 1903708.90 92%
38 4724 2242.98 2480.55 2480.55 6153136.37 53%
39 2750 3282.12 -531.71 531.71 282717.96 19%
40 5620 3414.09 2206.31 2206.31 4867785.93 39%
41 5860 4382.72 1476.85 1476.85 2181085.27 25%
42 5441 5452.98 -11.96 11.96 143.00 0%
2018
43 957 5626.38 -4669.72 4669.72 21806240.93 488%
44 4903 3240.70 1662.20 1662.20 2762920.13 34%
45 5501 3378.22 2122.60 2122.60 4505421.68 39%
46 5919 4807.24 1112.12 1112.12 1236814.67 19%
47 1674 5650.30 -3976.13 3976.13 15809641.75 238%
48 4245 3754.91 490.29 490.29 240384.49 12%
49 3384.20
50 3384.20
51 3384.20
52 3384.20
53 3384.20
54 3384.20
2019
2019
55 3384.20
56 3384.20
57 3384.20 ME = 12.43
58 3384.20 MAD = 1877.73
59 3384.20 MSE = 5713287.94
60 3384.20 MAPE = 72%
Promedio Ponderado
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50
Demanda Pronóstico
CARNE DE CERDO
Pronóstico
PMP t
1 877.60 1
2 640.40 2
3 1564.17 3
4 2063.13 1126.00 937.13 937.13 878212.92 45%
5 837.68 1721.27 -883.59 883.59 780736.39 105%
6 1061.70 1400.51 -338.81 338.81 114792.74 32%
2015
7 1061.70 1072.24 -10.54 10.54 111.00 1%
8 2024.68 1039.30 985.38 985.38 970976.95 49%
9 1950.23 1543.19 407.04 407.04 165677.63 21%
10 1416.86 1891.15 -474.29 474.29 224950.99 33%
11 1986.23 1690.99 295.24 295.24 87168.10 15%
12 1331.62 1754.89 -423.27 423.27 179153.42 32%
13 479.91 1601.99 -1122.08 1122.08 1259068.52 234%
14 916.98 971.22 -54.24 54.24 2942.01 6%
15 1990.87 783.62 1207.26 1207.26 1457468.02 61%
16 2243.16 1410.22 832.93 832.93 693780.37 37%
17 809.21 2009.63 -1200.41 1200.41 1440989.18 148%
18 2509.02 1500.96 1008.06 1008.06 1016184.74 40%
2016
19 2150.81 1802.51 348.30 348.30 121312.76 16%
20 1359.81 2159.93 -800.12 800.12 640192.00 59%
21 1318.25 1791.13 -472.88 472.88 223620.12 36%
22 1359.81 1418.13 -58.32 58.32 3400.84 4%
23 2475.65 1343.19 1132.47 1132.47 1282478.55 46%
24 1108.59 1913.58 -804.99 804.99 648001.66 73%
25 2916.77 1680.54 1236.24 1236.24 1528281.75 42%
26 581.94 2149.39 -1567.44 1567.44 2456880.09 269%
27 1540.20 1568.54 -28.35 28.35 803.49 2%
28 3081.20 1294.55 1786.65 1786.65 3192121.83 58%
29 1399.71 2214.87 -815.17 815.17 664500.22 58%
30 1508.67 2086.35 -577.69 577.69 333722.45 38%
2017
31 553.21 1622.34 -1069.13 1069.13 1143041.11 193%
32 932.37 1020.04 -87.67 87.67 7686.30 9%
33 935.58 838.33 97.24 97.24 9456.26 10%
34 2809.33 896.06 1913.28 1913.28 3660624.65 68%
35 2409.25 1872.13 537.11 537.11 288489.72 22%
36 827.50 2421.91 -1594.41 1594.41 2542154.56 193%
37 519.57 1658.38 -1138.81 1138.81 1296881.15 219%
38 3033.24 831.71 2201.53 2201.53 4846728.81 73%
39 1220.06 1807.20 -587.14 587.14 344736.06 48%
40 3333.21 1875.28 1457.92 1457.92 2125541.09 44%
41 1085.61 2457.95 -1372.34 1372.34 1883313.93 126%
42 3288.39 1998.09 1290.30 1290.30 1664863.34 39%
2018
43 1734.21 2411.76 -677.55 677.55 459072.93 39%
44 1703.47 2291.02 -587.55 587.55 345214.27 34%
45 2952.42 1874.26 1078.16 1078.16 1162432.03 37%
46 1703.47 2331.02 -627.55 627.55 393816.32 37%
47 1516.25 2203.05 -686.80 686.80 471690.35 45%
48 2474.22 1734.76 739.46 739.46 546798.60 30%
49 2013.96
50 2013.96
51 2013.96
52 2013.96
53 2013.96
54 2013.96
2019
2019
55 2013.96
56 2013.96
57 2013.96 ME = 31.79
58 2013.96 MAD = 834.51
59 2013.96 MSE = 968001.56
60 2013.96 MAPE = 63%
Promedio Ponderado
3500.00
9000
8000
3000.00
7000
2500.00
6000
2000.00
5000
4000
1500.00
3000
1000.00
2000
500.00
1000
0.00
0
4 46 48 50 0 0 2 2 4 4 6 6 8 8 1010 1212 1414 1616 1818 2020 2222 2424 2626 28
28 30
30 32
32 34
34 36
36 38
38 40
40 42
42 44
44 46 48 50
Demanda Pronóstico
CARNE DE POLLO
Pronóstico
w PMP
0.10 1 2596.54
0.40 2 3462.05
0.50 3 4500.67
4 5193.08 3894.81 1298.27 1298.27 1685505.80 25%
5 6058.59 4743.01 1315.58 1315.58 1730752.27 22%
6 6577.90 5556.60 1021.31 1021.31 1043065.90 16%
2015
7 6924.11 6231.70 692.41 692.41 479432.76 10%
8 7443.42 6699.07 744.34 744.34 554044.49 10%
9 7270.31 7149.14 121.17 121.17 14682.63 2%
10 8135.83 7304.93 830.89 830.89 690383.18 10%
11 8655.14 7720.38 934.75 934.75 873766.21 11%
12 7962.72 8308.93 -346.21 346.21 119858.19 4%
13 5533.61 8257.00 -2723.39 2723.39 7416851.70 49%
14 5994.74 6817.41 -822.66 822.66 676776.93 14%
15 6571.16 6007.09 564.07 564.07 318178.57 9%
16 6686.44 6236.84 449.61 449.61 202145.35 7%
17 6340.59 6571.16 -230.57 230.57 53161.17 4%
18 6686.44 6501.99 184.45 184.45 34023.15 3%
2016
19 6917.01 6548.10 368.91 368.91 136092.59 5%
20 5879.46 6767.14 -887.68 887.68 787981.43 15%
21 6225.31 6375.18 -149.87 149.87 22460.59 2%
22 6628.80 6156.14 472.66 472.66 223409.81 7%
23 6917.01 6392.47 524.54 524.54 275142.28 8%
24 7262.86 6732.56 530.30 530.30 281222.59 7%
25 5980.51 7061.12 -1080.61 1080.61 1167710.23 18%
26 6366.35 6587.10 -220.75 220.75 48731.40 3%
27 6173.43 6301.66 -128.24 128.24 16444.28 2%
28 6559.27 6231.31 327.96 327.96 107560.02 5%
29 6752.19 6385.64 366.55 366.55 134356.98 5%
30 6848.65 6617.14 231.50 231.50 53593.92 3%
2017
31 7041.57 6781.13 260.44 260.44 67829.80 4%
32 6945.11 6935.46 9.65 9.65 93.04 0%
33 7330.95 6974.05 356.90 356.90 127378.60 5%
34 7427.41 7147.67 279.73 279.73 78250.84 4%
35 7427.41 7340.59 86.81 86.81 7536.64 1%
36 7234.49 7417.76 -183.27 183.27 33589.24 3%
37 6033.82 7330.95 -1297.13 1297.13 1682540.81 21%
38 6188.53 6653.45 -464.91 464.91 216143.80 8%
39 6807.39 6231.24 576.14 576.14 331940.92 8%
40 6962.10 6482.49 479.61 479.61 230027.00 7%
41 7116.81 6822.86 293.96 293.96 86409.73 4%
42 6962.10 7023.98 -61.89 61.89 3829.79 1%
2018
43 7271.53 7023.98 247.54 247.54 61276.70 3%
44 7271.53 7132.28 139.24 139.24 19388.33 2%
45 7426.24 7240.58 185.66 185.66 34468.15 3%
46 7658.31 7348.88 309.43 309.43 95744.85 4%
47 7735.67 7526.80 208.86 208.86 43623.75 3%
48 8122.45 7673.78 448.67 448.67 201303.54 6%
49 7921.32
50 7921.32
51 7921.32
52 7921.32
53 7921.32
54 7921.32
2019
2019
55 7921.32
56 7921.32
57 7921.32 ME = 139.22
58 7921.32 MAD = 521.31
59 7921.32 MSE = 499304.67
60 7921.32 MAPE = 8%
Promedio Ponderado
10000.00
9000
9000.00
8000
8000.00
7000
7000.00
6000
6000.00
5000
5000.00
4000
4000.00
3000
3000.00
2000
2000.00
1000
1000.00
0.00
0
38
38 40
40 42
42 44
44 46 48 50 0 0 2 2 4 4 6 6 8 8 1010 1212 1414 1616 1818 20
20 22
22 24
24 26
26 28
28 30
30 32 34 36 38
38 40
40 42
42 44
44 4
Demanda Pronóstico
t w
1 0.10
2 0.40
3 0.50
pollo - pronostico año 2019 utilizando promedio p

Pronóstico Pronóstico
general (Ton) general (Kg)
Enero 7921.322 7921322
Febrero 7921.322 7921322
Marzo 7921.322 7921322
Abril 7921.322 7921322
Mayo 7921.322 7921322
Junio 7921.322 7921322
Julio 7921.322 7921322
Agosto 7921.322 7921322
Septiembre 7921.322 7921322
Octubre 7921.322 7921322
Noviembre 7921.322 7921322
Diciembre 7921.322 7921322
34 36 38
38 40
40 42
42 44
44 46
46 48
48 5050
019 utilizando promedio ponderado
Alas Pechuga
% Kg requeridos % Kg requeridos
10 792132 50 3960661
10 792132 50 3960661
10 792132 50 3960661
10 792132 50 3960661
10 792132 50 3960661
10 792132 50 3960661
10 792132 50 3960661
10 792132 50 3960661
10 792132 50 3960661
10 792132 50 3960661
10 792132 50 3960661
10 792132 50 3960661
CARNE DE RES
Pronóstico
SES Alfa
1 2855.65 2855.65 0.00 0.00 0.00 0% 0.25
2 5963.27 2855.65 3107.62 3107.62 9657306.63 52%
3 1847.77 3632.56 -1784.78 1784.78 3185447.42 97%
4 4535.45 3186.36 1349.09 1349.09 1820031.29 30%
5 2351.71 3523.63 -1171.92 1171.92 1373395.25 50%
6 1259.85 3230.65 -1970.81 1970.81 3884077.67 156%
2015
7 7055.14 2737.95 4317.19 4317.19 18638111.86 61%
8 3359.59 3817.25 -457.66 457.66 209450.86 14%
9 2939.64 3702.83 -763.19 763.19 582462.42 26%
10 6971.15 3512.04 3459.11 3459.11 11965468.19 50%
11 3863.53 4376.81 -513.29 513.29 263461.90 13%
12 6467.21 4248.49 2218.72 2218.72 4922710.41 34%
13 6003.93 4803.17 1200.76 1200.76 1441812.71 20%
14 5327.43 5103.36 224.07 224.07 50206.23 4%
15 1183.87 5159.38 -3975.50 3975.50 15804638.01 336%
16 3044.24 4165.50 -1121.26 1121.26 1257216.75 37%
17 8287.11 3885.19 4401.92 4401.92 19376929.33 53%
18 1691.25 4985.67 -3294.42 3294.42 10853210.29 195%
2016
19 7695.17 4162.06 3533.11 3533.11 12482875.59 46%
20 1691.25 5045.34 -3354.09 3354.09 11249944.17 198%
21 3044.24 4206.82 -1162.57 1162.57 1351574.98 38%
22 4650.93 3916.17 734.76 734.76 539865.35 16%
23 2452.31 4099.86 -1647.55 1647.55 2714436.59 67%
24 2706.00 3687.97 -981.98 981.98 964282.73 36%
25 2126.75 3442.48 -1315.73 1315.73 1731155.85 62%
26 2812.79 3113.55 -300.75 300.75 90452.67 11%
27 1029.07 3038.36 -2009.29 2009.29 4037235.24 195%
28 4665.12 2536.04 2129.08 2129.08 4532996.57 46%
29 6860.47 3068.31 3792.16 3792.16 14380499.70 55%
30 4870.93 4016.35 854.59 854.59 730317.21 18%
2017
31 6380.24 4229.99 2150.24 2150.24 4623544.20 34%
32 6723.26 4767.55 1955.71 1955.71 3824784.40 29%
33 2401.16 5256.48 -2855.32 2855.32 8152833.50 119%
34 4390.70 4542.65 -151.95 151.95 23089.20 3%
35 2058.14 4504.66 -2446.52 2446.52 5985475.70 119%
36 3224.42 3893.03 -668.61 668.61 447042.73 21%
37 1494.79 3725.88 -2231.09 2231.09 4977775.69 149%
38 4723.53 3168.11 1555.42 1555.42 2419333.57 33%
39 2750.41 3556.96 -806.55 806.55 650528.72 29%
40 5620.40 3355.32 2265.08 2265.08 5130570.49 40%
41 5859.57 3921.59 1937.97 1937.97 3755739.95 33%
42 5441.03 4406.09 1034.94 1034.94 1071099.65 19%
2018
43 956.66 4664.82 -3708.16 3708.16 13750429.04 388%
44 4902.90 3737.78 1165.12 1165.12 1357505.68 24%
45 5500.82 4029.06 1471.76 1471.76 2166063.46 27%
46 5919.36 4397.00 1522.36 1522.36 2317570.37 26%
47 1674.16 4777.59 -3103.43 3103.43 9631265.89 185%
48 4245.20 4001.73 243.46 243.46 59274.21 6%
49 4062.60
50 4062.60
51 4062.60
52 4062.60
53 4062.60
54 4062.60
2019
2019
55 4062.60
56 4062.60
57 4062.60 ME = 100.58
58 4062.60 MAD = 1842.10
59 4062.60 MSE = 4800739.59
60 4062.60 MAPE = 69%
Suavización Exponencial Simple

9000.00
8000.00
7000.00
6000.00
5000.00
4000.00
3000.00
2000.00
1000.00
0.00
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50
Demanda Pronóstico
CARNE DE CERDO
Pronóstico
SES
1 877.60 2855.65 -1978.05 1978.05 3912681.63 225%
2 640.40 2361.14 -1720.73 1720.73 2960927.58 269%
3 1564.17 1930.96 -366.79 366.79 134534.57 23%
4 2063.13 1839.26 223.88 223.88 50120.91 11%
5 837.68 1895.23 -1057.55 1057.55 1118403.23 126%
6 1061.70 1630.84 -569.14 569.14 323920.66 54%
2015
7 1061.70 1488.56 -426.86 426.86 182205.37 40%
8 2024.68 1381.84 642.84 642.84 413241.09 32%
9 1950.23 1542.55 407.67 407.67 166198.13 21%
10 1416.86 1644.47 -227.61 227.61 51804.07 16%
11 1986.23 1587.57 398.66 398.66 158933.32 20%
12 1331.62 1687.23 -355.61 355.61 126461.97 27%
13 479.91 1598.33 -1118.42 1118.42 1250871.40 233%
14 916.98 1318.73 -401.74 401.74 161395.41 44%
15 1990.87 1218.29 772.58 772.58 596885.52 39%
16 2243.16 1411.44 831.72 831.72 691758.67 37%
17 809.21 1619.37 -810.15 810.15 656346.32 100%
18 2509.02 1416.83 1092.19 1092.19 1192876.24 44%
2016
19 2150.81 1689.88 460.93 460.93 212460.35 21%
20 1359.81 1805.11 -445.30 445.30 198288.47 33%
21 1318.25 1693.78 -375.54 375.54 141028.64 28%
22 1359.81 1599.90 -240.09 240.09 57642.01 18%
23 2475.65 1539.88 935.77 935.77 875672.47 38%
24 1108.59 1773.82 -665.23 665.23 442532.91 60%
25 2916.77 1607.51 1309.26 1309.26 1714162.47 45%
26 581.94 1934.83 -1352.88 1352.88 1830296.10 232%
27 1540.20 1596.61 -56.41 56.41 3182.39 4%
28 3081.20 1582.50 1498.70 1498.70 2246099.15 49%
29 1399.71 1957.18 -557.47 557.47 310777.10 40%
30 1508.67 1817.81 -309.14 309.14 95570.20 20%
2017
31 553.21 1740.53 -1187.32 1187.32 1409728.69 215%
32 932.37 1443.70 -511.33 511.33 261455.05 55%
33 935.58 1315.86 -380.29 380.29 144618.37 41%
34 2809.33 1220.79 1588.54 1588.54 2523460.09 57%
35 2409.25 1617.93 791.32 791.32 626185.69 33%
36 827.50 1815.76 -988.26 988.26 976651.47 119%
37 519.57 1568.69 -1049.12 1049.12 1100648.29 202%
38 3033.24 1306.41 1726.83 1726.83 2981933.51 57%
39 1220.06 1738.12 -518.06 518.06 268388.30 42%
40 3333.21 1608.60 1724.60 1724.60 2974251.32 52%
41 1085.61 2039.75 -954.14 954.14 910389.63 88%
42 3288.39 1801.22 1487.17 1487.17 2211677.05 45%
2018
43 1734.21 2173.01 -438.80 438.80 192546.15 25%
44 1703.47 2063.31 -359.84 359.84 129483.65 21%
45 2952.42 1973.35 979.07 979.07 958576.91 33%
46 1703.47 2218.12 -514.65 514.65 264860.63 30%
47 1516.25 2089.46 -573.20 573.20 328561.09 38%
48 2474.22 1946.16 528.06 528.06 278847.59 21%
49 2078.17
50 2078.17
51 2078.17
52 2078.17
53 2078.17
54 2078.17
2019
2019
55 2078.17
56 2078.17
57 2078.17 ME = -64.79
58 2078.17 MAD = 789.78
59 2078.17 MSE = 850407.12
60 2078.17 MAPE = 65%

9000.00
3500.00
8000.00
3000.00
7000.00
2500.00
6000.00
2000.00
5000.00
4000.00
1500.00
3000.00
1000.00
2000.00
500.00
1000.00
0.00
44 46 48 50 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50
Demanda Pronóstico
CARNE DE POLLO
Pronóstico
Alfa SES
0.25 1 2596.54 2855.65 -259.11 259.11 67138.44 10%
2 3462.05 2790.87 671.18 671.18 450483.12 19%
3 4500.67 2958.67 1542.00 1542.00 2377768.77 34%
4 5193.08 3344.17 1848.91 1848.91 3418475.56 36%
5 6058.59 3806.40 2252.20 2252.20 5072393.75 37%
6 6577.90 4369.45 2208.46 2208.46 4877279.13 34%
2015
7 6924.11 4921.56 2002.55 2002.55 4010196.99 29%
8 7443.42 5422.20 2021.22 2021.22 4085325.61 27%
9 7270.31 5927.50 1342.81 1342.81 1803142.52 18%
10 8135.83 6263.21 1872.62 1872.62 3506713.57 23%
11 8655.14 6731.36 1923.77 1923.77 3700909.13 22%
12 7962.72 7212.30 750.42 750.42 563130.47 9%
13 5533.61 7399.91 -1866.30 1866.30 3483075.66 34%
14 5994.74 6933.33 -938.59 938.59 880952.83 16%
15 6571.16 6698.69 -127.53 127.53 16262.75 2%
16 6686.44 6666.81 19.64 19.64 385.71 0%
17 6340.59 6671.72 -331.12 331.12 109641.14 5%
18 6686.44 6588.93 97.51 97.51 9508.16 1%
2016
19 6917.01 6613.31 303.70 303.70 92233.34 4%
20 5879.46 6689.24 -809.78 809.78 655739.12 14%
21 6225.31 6486.79 -261.48 261.48 68373.00 4%
22 6628.80 6421.42 207.38 207.38 43006.72 3%
23 6917.01 6473.27 443.74 443.74 196908.99 6%
24 7262.86 6584.20 678.66 678.66 460577.78 9%
25 5980.51 6753.87 -773.36 773.36 598083.35 13%
26 6366.35 6560.53 -194.18 194.18 37705.69 3%
27 6173.43 6511.98 -338.55 338.55 114619.02 5%
28 6559.27 6427.35 131.92 131.92 17403.84 2%
29 6752.19 6460.33 291.86 291.86 85183.65 4%
30 6848.65 6533.29 315.36 315.36 99449.80 5%
2017
31 7041.57 6612.13 429.44 429.44 184416.25 6%
32 6945.11 6719.49 225.62 225.62 50903.49 3%
33 7330.95 6775.89 555.05 555.05 308083.67 8%
34 7427.41 6914.66 512.75 512.75 262912.02 7%
35 7427.41 7042.85 384.56 384.56 147888.01 5%
36 7234.49 7138.99 95.50 95.50 9120.61 1%
37 6033.82 7162.86 -1129.04 1129.04 1274735.03 19%
38 6188.53 6880.60 -692.07 692.07 478957.99 11%
39 6807.39 6707.58 99.80 99.80 9960.51 1%
40 6962.10 6732.53 229.57 229.57 52700.13 3%
41 7116.81 6789.93 326.89 326.89 106855.20 5%
42 6962.10 6871.65 90.45 90.45 8181.57 1%
2018
43 7271.53 6894.26 377.27 377.27 142329.39 5%
44 7271.53 6988.58 282.95 282.95 80060.28 4%
45 7426.24 7059.31 366.93 366.93 134634.15 5%
46 7658.31 7151.05 507.26 507.26 257316.70 7%
47 7735.67 7277.86 457.80 457.80 209585.06 6%
48 8122.45 7392.31 730.14 730.14 533099.69 9%
49 7574.85
50 7574.85
51 7574.85
52 7574.85
53 7574.85
54 7574.85
2019
2019
55 7574.85
56 7574.85
57 7574.85 ME = 393.27
58 7574.85 MAD = 714.98
59 7574.85 MSE = 940704.32
60 7574.85 MAPE = 11%

10000.00
9000.00
9000.00
8000.00
8000.00
7000.00
7000.00
6000.00
6000.00
5000.00
5000.00
4000.00
4000.00
3000.00
3000.00
2000.00
2000.00
1000.00
1000.00
0.00
36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 0 2 4 6 8 10
10 12
12 14
14 16
16 18
18 20
20 22
22 24
24 26
26 28
28 30
30 32
32 34
34 36
36 38
38 40
40 42
42 44
44 46
46
Demanda Pronóstico
Alfa
0.25
mple
32
32 34
34 36
36 38
38 40
40 42
42 44
44 46
46 48
48 50
50
CARNE DE RES
Pronóstico
Año Mes Demanda St Gt Et |Et| E2t %Et
SED
0 4005.97 1.35
1 2855.65 3719.40 -99.42 4007.32 -1151.67 1151.67 1326341.17 40%
2 5963.27 4205.81 105.62 3619.99 2343.29 2343.29 5490986.19 39%
3 1847.77 3695.52 -109.95 4311.43 -2463.65 2463.65 6069595.65 133%
4 4535.45 3823.04 -26.83 3585.57 949.88 949.88 902270.83 21%
5 2351.71 3435.08 -153.23 3796.20 -1444.49 1444.49 2086550.81 61%
6 1259.85 2776.35 -330.15 3281.85 -2022.01 2022.01 4088512.70 160%
2015
7 7055.14 3598.43 73.13 2446.20 4608.94 4608.94 21242328.16 65%
8 3359.59 3593.57 45.83 3671.56 -311.97 311.97 97327.52 9%
9 2939.64 3464.46 -15.40 3639.40 -699.76 699.76 489665.28 24%
10 6971.15 4329.59 292.79 3449.06 3522.08 3522.08 12405078.96 51%
11 3863.53 4432.66 226.39 4622.37 -758.84 758.84 575842.15 20%
12 6467.21 5111.09 384.60 4659.05 1808.16 1808.16 3269456.11 28%
13 6003.93 5622.75 429.07 5495.69 508.24 508.24 258306.24 8%
14 5327.43 5870.72 365.69 6051.82 -724.39 724.39 524743.42 14%
15 1183.87 4973.28 -76.41 6236.41 -5052.54 5052.54 25528125.98 427%
16 3044.24 4433.71 -238.51 4896.87 -1852.62 1852.62 3432205.04 61%
17 8287.11 5218.18 119.53 4195.20 4091.91 4091.91 16743759.98 49%
18 1691.25 4426.09 -199.54 5337.70 -3646.46 3646.46 13296646.67 216%
2016
19 7695.17 5093.71 103.97 4226.55 3468.62 3468.62 12031331.31 45%
20 1691.25 4321.07 -202.84 5197.68 -3506.43 3506.43 12295047.04 207%
21 3044.24 3849.73 -296.82 4118.22 -1073.98 1073.98 1153432.55 35%
22 4650.93 3827.42 -200.74 3552.91 1098.02 1098.02 1205642.93 24%
23 2452.31 3333.08 -303.50 3626.67 -1174.37 1174.37 1379136.97 48%
24 2706.00 2948.69 -331.81 3029.58 -323.59 323.59 104710.19 12%
25 2126.75 2494.34 -374.70 2616.88 -490.13 490.13 240226.86 23%
26 2812.79 2292.93 -314.05 2119.64 693.15 693.15 480455.07 25%
27 1029.07 1741.43 -397.16 1978.88 -949.81 949.81 902143.51 92%
28 4665.12 2174.48 -106.58 1344.27 3320.85 3320.85 11028021.59 71%
29 6860.47 3266.04 312.77 2067.90 4792.57 4792.57 22968707.70 70%
30 4870.93 3901.84 425.83 3578.81 1292.12 1292.12 1669581.43 27%
2017
31 6380.24 4840.81 605.43 4327.67 2052.57 2052.57 4213034.54 32%
32 6723.26 5765.49 717.17 5446.24 1277.02 1277.02 1630785.13 19%
33 2401.16 5462.29 360.04 6482.66 -4081.50 4081.50 16658611.25 170%
34 4390.70 5464.42 234.77 5822.32 -1431.62 1431.62 2049540.97 33%
35 2058.14 4788.92 -83.82 5699.19 -3641.04 3641.04 13257208.66 177%
36 3224.42 4334.93 -213.38 4705.10 -1480.68 1480.68 2192417.44 46%
37 1494.79 3464.86 -443.22 4121.55 -2626.76 2626.76 6899881.13 176%
38 4723.53 3447.11 -294.31 3021.64 1701.89 1701.89 2896437.66 36%
39 2750.41 3052.20 -329.52 3152.80 -402.39 402.39 161919.01 15%
40 5620.40 3447.11 -75.97 2722.68 2897.72 2897.72 8396753.81 52%
41 5859.57 3993.25 141.77 3371.15 2488.42 2488.42 6192233.28 42%
42 5441.03 4461.52 256.04 4135.02 1306.01 1306.01 1705649.43 24%
2018
43 956.66 3777.34 -73.03 4717.57 -3760.90 3760.90 14144388.24 393%
44 4902.90 4003.96 31.84 3704.31 1198.60 1198.60 1436631.30 24%
45 5500.82 4402.05 160.03 4035.80 1465.02 1465.02 2146279.67 27%
46 5919.36 4901.40 278.79 4562.09 1357.27 1357.27 1842188.34 23%
47 1674.16 4303.69 -27.98 5180.20 -3506.03 3506.03 12292279.98 209%
48 4245.20 4268.08 -30.65 4275.70 -30.51 30.51 930.70 1%
1 49 4237.42
2 50 4206.77
3 51 4176.11
4 52 4145.46
5 53 4114.81
2019
6 54 4084.15
2019
7 55 4053.50
8 56 4022.84
9 57 3992.19 ME = -7.62
10 58 3961.54 MAD = 2017.72
11 59 3930.88 MSE = 5862569.80
12 60 3900.23 MAPE = 75%
Suavización Exponencial Doble

9000.00
8000.00
7000.00
6000.00
5000.00
4000.00
3000.00
2000.00
1000.00
0.00
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44
Demanda Pronóstico
CARNE DE CERDO
Pronóstico
Año Mes Demanda St Gt Et
Alfa Beta SED
0.25 0.35 0 1233.59 17.33
1 877.60 1157.60 -15.33 1250.93 -373.33
2 640.40 1016.80 -59.24 1142.26 -501.86
3 1564.17 1109.21 -6.17 957.56 606.61
Pend (m) 1.35 4 2063.13 1343.07 77.84 1103.04 960.09
Inter (b) 4005.97 5 837.68 1275.10 26.81 1420.91 -583.23
6 1061.70 1241.86 5.79 1301.91 -240.21
2015
7 1061.70 1201.16 -10.48 1247.65 -185.95
8 2024.68 1399.18 62.50 1190.68 834.00
9 1950.23 1583.82 105.24 1461.68 488.55
10 1416.86 1621.01 81.43 1689.06 -272.19
11 1986.23 1773.39 106.26 1702.44 283.80
12 1331.62 1742.64 58.31 1879.64 -548.02
13 479.91 1470.69 -57.28 1800.95 -1321.04
14 916.98 1289.30 -100.72 1413.40 -496.42
15 1990.87 1389.15 -30.52 1188.58 802.30
16 2243.16 1579.76 46.88 1358.63 884.53
17 809.21 1422.28 -24.65 1626.64 -817.42
18 2509.02 1675.48 72.60 1397.63 1111.38
2016
19 2150.81 1848.76 107.84 1748.08 402.73
20 1359.81 1807.40 55.62 1956.60 -596.78
21 1318.25 1726.83 7.95 1863.02 -544.77
22 1359.81 1641.04 -24.86 1734.78 -374.96
23 2475.65 1831.05 50.35 1616.18 859.48
24 1108.59 1688.19 -17.27 1881.39 -772.80
25 2916.77 1982.38 91.74 1670.92 1245.86
26 581.94 1701.07 -38.83 2074.12 -1492.17
27 1540.20 1631.73 -49.51 1662.25 -122.05
28 3081.20 1956.97 81.65 1582.23 1498.98
29 1399.71 1878.90 25.75 2038.63 -638.92
30 1508.67 1805.65 -8.90 1904.64 -395.98
2017
31 553.21 1485.86 -117.71 1796.75 -1243.54
32 932.37 1259.21 -155.84 1368.15 -435.78
33 935.58 1061.42 -170.52 1103.37 -167.79
34 2809.33 1370.50 -2.66 890.90 1918.44
35 2409.25 1628.20 88.46 1367.85 1041.40
36 827.50 1494.37 10.66 1716.66 -889.16
37 519.57 1258.67 -75.57 1505.03 -985.46
38 3033.24 1645.64 86.32 1183.10 1850.14
39 1220.06 1603.98 41.53 1731.96 -511.90
40 3333.21 2067.44 189.20 1645.51 1687.69
41 1085.61 1963.88 86.74 2256.64 -1171.03
42 3288.39 2360.06 195.04 2050.62 1237.77
2018
43 1734.21 2349.88 123.21 2555.11 -820.90
44 1703.47 2280.69 55.87 2473.10 -769.62
45 2952.42 2490.53 109.76 2336.56 615.86
46 1703.47 2376.08 31.29 2600.29 -896.82
47 1516.25 2184.59 -46.68 2407.37 -891.12
48 2474.22 2221.99 -17.26 2137.91 336.31
1 49 2204.73
2 50 2187.47
3 51 2170.22
4 52 2152.96
5 53 2135.70
2019
6 54 2118.44
2019
7 55 2101.19
8 56 2083.93
9 57 2066.67
10 58 2049.42
11 59 2032.16
12 60 2014.90
Suavización Exponencial D
3500.00
3000.00
2500.00
2000.00
1500.00
1000.00
500.00
0.00
34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28
Demanda Pronósti
CARNE DE CERDO
|Et| E2t %Et Año Mes Demanda St

Alfa Beta
0.25 0.35 0 5744.76
373.33 139372.14 43% 1 2596.54 4985.97
501.86 251863.53 78% 2 3462.05 4424.18
606.61 367976.33 39% 3 4500.67 4178.31
960.09 921778.19 47% Pend (m) 17.33 4 5193.08 4195.21
583.23 340153.01 70% Inter (b) 1233.59 5 6058.59 4511.58
240.21 57701.20 23% 6 6577.90 5014.05
2015
185.95 34577.28 18% 7 6924.11 5614.29
834.00 695550.03 41% 8 7443.42 6308.90
488.55 238678.09 25% 9 7270.31 6885.86
272.19 74089.57 19% 10 8135.83 7568.60
283.80 80540.24 14% 11 8655.14 8260.11
548.02 300331.29 41% 12 7962.72 8640.20
1321.04 1745140.56 275% 13 5533.61 8258.72
496.42 246429.64 54% 14 5994.74 7849.44
802.30 643680.65 40% 15 6571.16 7524.30
884.53 782384.62 39% 16 6686.44 7225.86
817.42 668183.16 101% 17 6340.59 6868.38
1111.38 1235171.38 44% 18 6686.44 6640.54
2016
402.73 162193.12 19% 19 6917.01 6531.33
596.78 356151.35 44% 20 5879.46 6223.77
544.77 296776.53 41% 21 6225.31 6049.44
374.96 140597.71 28% 22 6628.80 6034.96
859.48 738698.13 35% 23 6917.01 6148.11
772.80 597220.45 70% 24 7262.86 6386.71
1245.86 1552163.06 43% 25 5980.51 6321.74
1492.17 2226582.13 256% 26 6366.35 6339.61
122.05 14896.76 8% 27 6173.43 6307.13
1498.98 2246930.28 49% 28 6559.27 6367.52
638.92 408218.02 46% 29 6752.19 6477.83
395.98 156797.40 26% 30 6848.65 6608.68
2017
1243.54 1546402.23 225% 31 7041.57 6776.04
435.78 189908.50 47% 32 6945.11 6900.69
167.79 28153.37 18% 33 7330.95 7094.52
1918.44 3680397.48 68% 34 7427.41 7284.69
1041.40 1084515.13 43% 35 7427.41 7439.81
889.16 790602.85 107% 36 7234.49 7506.83
985.46 971122.95 190% 37 6033.82 7233.10
1850.14 3423018.09 61% 38 6188.53 6961.55
511.90 262040.75 42% 39 6807.39 6844.95
1687.69 2848310.03 51% 40 6962.10 6792.90
1171.03 1371306.39 108% 41 7116.81 6807.34
1237.77 1532071.90 38% 42 6962.10 6806.58
2018
820.90 673869.46 47% 43 7271.53 6896.97
769.62 592321.61 45% 44 7271.53 6997.53
615.86 379280.00 21% 45 7426.24 7135.61
896.82 804278.29 53% 46 7658.31 7322.62
891.12 794092.28 59% 47 7735.67 7511.58
336.31 113102.47 14% 48 8122.45 7769.61
1 49
2 50
3 51
4 52
5 53
2019
6 54
2019
7 55
8 56
ME = -8.24 9 57
MAD = 785.98 10 58
MSE = 808450.41 11 59
MAPE = 61% 12 60
ación Exponencial Doble

10000.00
9000.00
8000.00
7000.00
6000.00
5000.00
4000.00
3000.00
2000.00
1000.00
0.00
20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Demanda Pronóstico
CARNE DE POLLO
Pronóstico
Gt Et |Et| E2t %Et
SED Alfa Beta
37.69 0.25 0.35
-241.08 5782.45 -3185.91 3185.91 10149997.92 123%
-353.33 4744.89 -1282.84 1282.84 1645667.17 37%
-315.72 4070.85 429.82 429.82 184743.63 10%
-199.30 3862.59 1330.49 1330.49 1770214.09 26% Pend (m) 37.69
-18.82 3995.91 2062.69 2062.69 4254670.49 34% Inter (b) 5744.76
163.63 4492.76 2085.14 2085.14 4347802.09 32%
316.45 5177.68 1746.43 1746.43 3050003.47 25%
448.81 5930.73 1512.68 1512.68 2288206.83 20%
493.66 6757.71 512.60 512.60 262762.40 7%
559.84 7379.52 756.31 756.31 572002.03 9%
605.92 8128.43 526.70 526.70 277417.35 6%
526.88 8866.03 -903.30 903.30 815958.64 11%
208.95 9167.09 -3633.48 3633.48 13202146.85 66%
-7.43 8467.67 -2472.93 2472.93 6115363.72 41%
-118.63 7842.01 -1270.85 1270.85 1615057.92 19%
-181.56 7405.67 -719.23 719.23 517286.69 11%
-243.13 7044.31 -703.71 703.71 495209.36 11%
-237.78 6625.24 61.20 61.20 3745.59 1%
-192.78 6402.76 514.25 514.25 264449.89 7%
-232.95 6338.54 -459.08 459.08 210758.37 8%
-212.43 5990.82 234.49 234.49 54985.35 4%
-143.15 5837.01 791.79 791.79 626937.53 12%
-53.45 5891.81 1025.21 1025.21 1051048.59 15%
48.77 6094.66 1168.20 1168.20 1364696.72 16%
8.96 6435.48 -454.97 454.97 206999.28 8%
12.08 6330.70 35.65 35.65 1270.90 1%
-3.52 6351.69 -178.26 178.26 31777.57 3%
18.85 6303.61 255.66 255.66 65362.10 4%
50.86 6386.38 365.81 365.81 133818.61 5%
78.86 6528.69 319.96 319.96 102373.09 5%
109.84 6687.54 354.03 354.03 125337.77 5%
115.02 6885.88 59.23 59.23 3507.97 1%
142.60 7015.70 315.24 315.24 99378.08 4%
159.25 7237.12 190.29 190.29 36210.55 3%
157.81 7443.94 -16.53 16.53 273.36 0%
126.03 7597.61 -363.12 363.12 131859.76 5%
-13.88 7632.86 -1599.04 1599.04 2556939.84 27%
-104.07 7219.22 -1030.68 1030.68 1062310.62 17%
-108.45 6857.48 -50.09 50.09 2509.06 1%
-88.71 6736.50 225.60 225.60 50894.43 3%
-52.61 6704.19 412.62 412.62 170258.96 6%
-34.46 6754.74 207.36 207.36 42999.45 3%
9.23 6772.11 499.41 499.41 249413.09 7%
41.20 6906.20 365.32 365.32 133462.16 5%
75.11 7038.73 387.51 387.51 150160.99 5%
114.27 7210.72 447.59 447.59 200338.64 6%
140.41 7436.89 298.78 298.78 89268.81 4%
181.58 7652.00 470.45 470.45 221325.52 6%
7951.19
8132.77
8314.35
8495.93
8677.51
8859.09
9040.67
9222.25
9403.83 ME = 34.26
9585.41 MAD = 797.76
9766.99 MSE = 1271024.65
9948.57 MAPE = 14%
Suavización Exponencial Doble
6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50
Demanda Pronóstico
CARNE DE RES
Pronóstico
Año Mes t Demanda St Gt Ct Et |Et|
SET
-11 0.71
-10 1.49
-9 0.46
-8 1.13
-7 0.59
-6 0.31
-5 1.76
-4 0.84
-3 0.73
-2 1.74
-1 0.96
Año Mes 0 Dt 4005.97 1.35 1.61 Ft Et |Et|
1 1 2855.65 4007.12 1.30 0.71 2856.62 0.97 0.97
2 2 5963.27 4008.05 1.21 1.49 5966.93 3.66 3.66
3 3 1847.77 4008.77 1.09 0.46 1849.30 1.52 1.52
4 4 4535.45 4009.27 0.94 1.13 4539.85 4.41 4.41
5 5 2351.71 4009.58 0.78 0.59 2354.21 2.50 2.50
6 6 1259.85 4009.70 0.62 0.31 1261.23 1.38 1.38
2015
7 7 7055.14 4009.67 0.45 1.76 7062.81 7.67 7.67
8 8 3359.59 4009.50 0.30 0.84 3363.08 3.49 3.49
9 9 2939.64 4009.22 0.16 0.73 2942.45 2.81 2.81
10 10 6971.15 4008.87 0.03 1.74 6977.09 5.94 5.94
11 11 3863.53 4008.45 -0.08 0.96 3866.35 2.82 2.82
12 12 6467.21 4008.01 -0.17 1.61 6471.09 3.88 3.88
13 1 6003.93 4670.12 165.40 0.86 2856.78 -3147.15 3147.15
14 2 5327.43 4647.08 118.29 1.40 7197.20 1869.77 1869.77
15 3 1183.87 4435.63 35.85 0.41 2197.67 1013.80 1013.80
16 4 3044.24 4204.17 -30.97 1.03 5061.44 2017.20 2017.20
17 5 8287.11 5665.16 342.02 0.81 2449.33 -5837.78 5837.78
18 6 1691.25 5912.94 318.46 0.31 1888.77 197.53 197.53
2016
19 7 7695.17 5952.25 248.67 1.64 10971.95 3276.78 3276.78
20 8 1691.25 5573.35 91.78 0.70 5199.24 3507.99 3507.99
21 9 3044.24 5437.76 34.94 0.69 4156.31 1112.07 1112.07
22 10 4650.93 5052.76 -70.05 1.54 9521.82 4870.89 4870.89
23 11 2452.31 4616.77 -161.53 0.86 4804.80 2352.49 2352.49
24 12 2706.00 4038.41 -265.74 1.38 7191.60 4485.60 4485.60
25 1 2126.75 3579.45 -314.05 0.79 3229.41 1102.66 1102.66
26 2 2812.79 3076.34 -361.31 1.28 4581.04 1768.25 1768.25
27 3 1029.07 2681.88 -369.60 0.41 1120.24 91.17 91.17
28 4 4665.12 2644.84 -286.46 1.21 2381.61 -2283.51 2283.51
29 5 6860.47 3281.55 -55.67 1.13 1900.61 -4959.86 4959.86
30 6 4870.93 5119.46 417.73 0.47 991.38 -3879.55 3879.55
2017
31 7 6380.24 5288.83 355.64 1.53 9101.85 2721.61 2721.61
32 8 6723.26 6228.87 501.74 0.80 3977.71 -2745.55 2745.55
33 9 2401.16 6242.85 379.80 0.61 4645.52 2244.36 2244.36
34 10 4390.70 6058.30 238.71 1.33 10165.93 5775.23 5775.23
35 11 2058.14 5713.11 92.74 0.73 5390.33 3332.19 3332.19
36 12 3224.42 5285.92 -37.25 1.19 8001.37 4776.95 4776.95
37 1 1494.79 4745.00 -163.16 0.67 4149.28 2654.49 2654.49
38 2 4723.53 4447.77 -196.68 1.23 5868.23 1144.71 1144.71
39 3 2750.41 4631.13 -101.67 0.45 1723.32 -1027.09 1027.09
40 4 5620.40 4544.81 -97.83 1.22 5496.27 -124.13 124.13
41 5 5859.57 4559.77 -69.64 1.17 5012.08 -847.49 847.49
42 6 5441.03 5559.21 197.63 0.60 2102.97 -3338.05 3338.05
2018
43 7 956.66 4986.84 5.13 1.20 8833.40 7876.73 7876.73
2018
44 8 4902.90 5164.34 48.23 0.84 3985.47 -917.44 917.44
45 9 5500.82 5774.94 188.82 0.70 3199.54 -2301.28 2301.28
46 10 5919.36 5735.56 131.77 1.26 7946.44 2027.08 2027.08
47 11 1674.16 5330.26 -2.50 0.63 4295.31 2621.15 2621.15
48 12 4245.20 5065.46 -68.07 1.10 6319.36 2074.17 2074.17
49 3356.54
50 6043.68
51 2199.76
52 5844.08
53 5512.15
54 2775.35
2019
55 5501.09
56 3780.01
57 3110.24 ME =
58 5513.14 MAD =
59 2709.02 MSE =
60 4669.63 MAPE =
Suavización Exponencial Triple

12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Demanda Pronóstico
Comportamiento de la Demanda
9000
8000
7000
6000
Año
5000 2015
Año
4000 2016
Año
3000 2017
2000
1000
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
4000
Año
3000 2017
2000
1000
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
DE RES
E2t %Et
Alfa Beta Gamma L

0.15 0.25 0.25 12
E2t %Et y' Dt/y' Promedio Normalizado

0.93 0% 4007.32 0.71 1.10 1.09
13.36 0% 4008.68 1.49 1.41 1.40
2.32 0% 4010.03 0.46 0.38 0.37
19.42 0% 4011.38 1.13 0.94 0.94
6.23 0% 4012.74 0.59 1.32 1.31
1.91 0% 4014.09 0.31 0.37 0.36
58.81 0% 4015.45 1.76 1.83 1.82
12.15 0% 4016.80 0.84 0.63 0.62
7.90 0% 4018.16 0.73 0.74 0.74
35.25 0% 4019.51 1.73 1.44 1.43
7.97 0% 4020.87 0.96 0.78 0.78
15.08 0% 4022.22 1.61 1.14 1.13
9904531.00 52% 4023.58 1.49 12.09 12.00
3496045.13 35% 4024.93 1.32
1027783.10 86% 4026.29 0.29
4069089.95 66% 4027.64 0.76
34079657.67 70% 4029.00 2.06
39016.31 12% 4030.35 0.42
10737289.53 43% 4031.71 1.91
12306000.74 207% 4033.06 0.42
1236696.74 37% 4034.42 0.75
23725531.05 105% 4035.77 1.15
5534217.66 96% 4037.13 0.61
20120639.89 166% 4038.48 0.67
1215861.70 52% 4039.83 0.53
3126715.18 63% 4041.19 0.70
8311.45 9% 4042.54 0.25
5214423.62 49% 4043.90 1.15
24600201.94 72% 4045.25 1.70
15050919.82 80% 4046.61 1.20
7407163.28 43% 4047.96 1.58
7538052.86 41% 4049.32 1.66
5037136.40 93% 4050.67 0.59
33353313.80 132% 4052.03 1.08
11103484.43 162% 4053.38 0.51
22819268.48 148% 4054.74 0.80
7046329.27 178% 4056.09 0.37
1310353.39 24% 4057.45 1.16
1054913.77 37% 4058.80 0.68
15407.52 2% 4060.16 1.38
718239.50 14% 4061.51 1.44
11142608.92 61% 4062.87 1.34
62042915.40 823% 4064.22 0.24
841689.29 19% 4065.58 1.21
5295867.36 42% 4066.93 1.35
4109049.47 34% 4068.29 1.46
6870423.08 157% 4069.64 0.41
4302160.53 49% 4070.99 1.04
Res - pronostico año 2019 utilizand
Enero 3356.543 3356543
Febrero 6043.682 6043682
Marzo 2199.763 2199763
Abril 5844.076 5844076
Mayo 5512.152 5512152
698.90 Junio 2775.352 2775352
2007.60 Julio 5501.092 5501092
7656281.05 Agosto 3780.011 3780011
70% Septiembre 3110.245 3110245
Octubre 5513.137 5513137
Noviembre 2709.023 2709023
l Triple Diciembre 4669.630 4669630
30 35 40 45 50
óstico
Año
2015
Año
2016
Año
2017
12 13
Año
2017
12 13
es - pronostico año 2019 utilizando suavizacion exponencial triple
Carne para asar Sobrebarriga Cadera
% Kg requeridos % Kg requeridos % Kg requeridos
30 1006963 8 268523 5 167827
30 1813104 8 483495 5 302184
30 659929 8 175981 5 109988
30 1753223 8 467526 5 292204
30 1653646 8 440972 5 275608
30 832605 8 222028 5 138768
30 1650328 8 440087 5 275055
30 1134003 8 302401 5 189001
30 933073 8 248820 5 155512
30 1653941 8 441051 5 275657
30 812707 8 216722 5 135451
30 1400889 8 373570 5 233481
CARNE DE CERDO
Pronóstico
Año Mes t Demanda St Gt Ct Et |Et|
SET
-11 0.71
-10 0.52
-9 1.27
-8 1.67
-7 0.68
-6 0.86
-5 0.86
-4 1.64
-3 1.58
-2 1.15
-1 1.61
Año Mes 0 Dt 1233.59 17.33 1.08 Ft Et |Et|
1 1 877.60 1248.33 16.68 0.71 889.93 12.33 12.33
2 2 640.40 1260.30 15.51 0.52 656.72 16.31 16.31
3 3 1564.17 1269.47 13.92 1.26 1617.69 53.52 53.52
4 4 2063.13 1275.93 12.06 1.66 2146.43 83.30 83.30
5 5 837.68 1279.82 10.02 0.67 874.61 36.93 36.93
6 6 1061.70 1281.40 7.91 0.85 1110.11 48.41 48.41
2015
7 7 1061.70 1280.95 5.82 0.85 1109.65 47.95 47.95
8 8 2024.68 1278.79 3.82 1.63 2111.96 87.28 87.28
9 9 1950.23 1275.26 1.98 1.57 2027.73 77.50 77.50
10 10 1416.86 1270.70 0.35 1.14 1467.01 50.14 50.14
11 11 1986.23 1265.43 -1.06 1.60 2046.54 60.31 60.31
12 12 1331.62 1259.76 -2.21 1.07 1364.85 33.23 33.23
13 1 479.91 1170.40 -24.00 0.63 892.00 412.09 412.09
14 2 916.98 1240.81 -0.40 0.57 591.99 -325.00 325.00
15 3 1990.87 1291.54 12.39 1.33 1561.70 -429.18 429.18
16 4 2243.16 1311.21 14.21 1.67 2162.68 -80.47 80.47
17 5 809.21 1306.98 9.60 0.66 891.91 82.69 82.69
18 6 2509.02 1560.50 70.58 1.04 1122.56 -1386.46 1386.46
2016
19 7 2150.81 1764.76 104.00 0.94 1390.82 -759.99 759.99
20 8 1359.81 1713.83 65.27 1.42 3040.08 1680.26 1680.26
21 9 1318.25 1638.34 30.08 1.38 2789.66 1471.41 1471.41
22 10 1359.81 1597.05 12.24 1.07 1902.30 542.49 542.49
23 11 2475.65 1599.99 9.91 1.59 2574.85 99.19 99.19
24 12 1108.59 1523.26 -11.75 0.99 1728.80 620.21 620.21
25 1 2916.77 1974.33 103.96 0.85 959.06 -1957.72 1957.72
26 2 581.94 1919.14 64.17 0.50 1188.88 606.93 606.93
27 3 1540.20 1859.57 33.23 1.20 2637.07 1096.87 1096.87
28 4 3081.20 1885.37 31.38 1.66 3164.07 82.86 82.86
29 5 1399.71 1947.60 39.09 0.67 1264.06 -135.65 135.65
30 6 1508.67 1905.98 18.91 0.98 2069.00 560.33 560.33
2017
31 7 553.21 1724.04 -31.30 0.79 1817.51 1264.31 1264.31
32 8 932.37 1537.43 -70.13 1.22 2401.06 1468.70 1468.70
33 9 935.58 1349.11 -99.68 1.21 2020.72 1085.14 1085.14
34 10 2809.33 1456.58 -47.89 1.28 1334.39 -1474.94 1474.94
35 11 2409.25 1425.13 -43.78 1.61 2235.35 -173.90 173.90
36 12 827.50 1299.87 -64.15 0.90 1363.87 536.37 536.37
37 1 519.57 1142.57 -87.44 0.75 1044.44 524.87 524.87
38 2 3033.24 1798.11 98.31 0.80 532.68 -2500.56 2500.56
39 3 1220.06 1763.91 65.18 1.08 2283.82 1063.76 1063.76
40 4 3333.21 1855.51 71.78 1.70 3040.49 -292.72 292.72
41 5 1085.61 1879.70 59.89 0.65 1299.54 213.93 213.93
42 6 3288.39 2152.51 113.12 1.12 1898.78 -1389.61 1389.61
2018
43 7 1734.21 2255.74 110.65 0.78 1786.18 51.97 51.97
2018
44 8 1703.47 2221.66 74.46 1.10 2876.22 1172.75 1172.75
45 9 2952.42 2318.85 80.14 1.22 2769.69 -182.73 182.73
46 10 1703.47 2238.27 39.96 1.15 3078.33 1374.86 1374.86
47 11 1516.25 2077.53 -10.21 1.39 3674.23 2157.97 2157.97
48 12 2474.22 2169.74 15.39 0.96 1859.87 -614.35 614.35
49 1633.60
50 1761.22
51 2384.64
52 3783.91
53 1460.59
54 2524.84
2019
55 1784.39
56 2529.70
57 2823.03 ME =
58 2678.41 MAD =
59 3256.06 MSE =
60 2259.89 MAPE =

4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Demanda Pronóstico
3500
3000
2500
Año
2000 2015
Año
2016
1500
Año
2017
1000
500
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1500
Año
2017
1000
500
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
E CERDO
E2t %Et
Alfa Beta Gamma L

0.15 0.25 0.25 12
E2t %Et y' Dt/y' Promedio Normalizado

152.08 1% 1250.93 0.70 0.52 0.51
266.04 3% 1268.26 0.50 0.56 0.55
2864.86 3% 1285.60 1.22 1.27 1.25
6938.08 4% 1302.93 1.58 1.53 1.51
1364.07 4% 1320.27 0.63 0.58 0.57
2343.46 5% 1337.60 0.79 1.21 1.19
2299.49 5% 1354.93 0.78 1.08 1.06
7617.49 4% 1372.27 1.48 1.17 1.15
6006.70 4% 1389.60 1.40 1.11 1.09
2514.09 4% 1406.94 1.01 0.92 0.91
3636.88 3% 1424.27 1.39 1.46 1.43
1103.95 2% 1441.61 0.92 0.80 0.78
169821.53 86% 1458.94 0.33 12.22 12.00
105623.14 35% 1476.28 0.62
184192.20 22% 1493.61 1.33
6475.94 4% 1510.95 1.48
6837.95 10% 1528.28 0.53
1922276.03 55% 1545.62 1.62
577584.91 35% 1562.95 1.38
2823281.18 124% 1580.28 0.86
2165051.97 112% 1597.62 0.83
294294.77 40% 1614.95 0.84
9839.44 4% 1632.29 1.52
384664.24 56% 1649.62 0.67
3832663.41 67% 1666.96 1.75
368368.32 104% 1684.29 0.35
1203134.08 71% 1701.63 0.91
6866.36 3% 1718.96 1.79
18400.74 10% 1736.30 0.81
313967.68 37% 1753.63 0.86
1598471.82 229% 1770.97 0.31
2157066.91 158% 1788.30 0.52
1177533.43 116% 1805.63 0.52
2175450.02 53% 1822.97 1.54
30241.23 7% 1840.30 1.31
287688.42 65% 1857.64 0.45
275487.17 101% 1874.97 0.28
6252822.60 82% 1892.31 1.60
1131592.72 87% 1909.64 0.64
85683.61 9% 1926.98 1.73
45765.42 20% 1944.31 0.56
1931013.76 42% 1961.65 1.68
2700.69 3% 1978.98 0.88
1375336.35 69% 1996.31 0.85
33391.27 6% 2013.65 1.47
1890236.78 81% 2030.98 0.84
4656837.66 142% 2048.32 0.74
377424.32 25% 2065.65 1.20
cerdo - pronostico año 2019 utilizand
Enero 1633.597 1633597
Febrero 1761.218 1761218
Marzo 2384.635 2384635
Abril 3783.910 3783910
Mayo 1460.586 1460586
147.37 Junio 2524.844 2524844
635.01 Julio 1784.393 1784393
831566.57 Agosto 2529.702 2529702
46% Septiembre 2823.030 2823030
Octubre 2678.406 2678406
Noviembre 3256.061 3256061
l Triple Diciembre 2259.886 2259886
30 35 40 45 50
óstico
Año
2015
Año
2016
Año
2017
12 13
Año
2017
12 13
do - pronostico año 2019 utilizando suavizacion exponencial triple
Milanesa Costillas Chorizos
% Kg requeridos % Kg requeridos % Kg requeridos
35 571759 15 245040 10 163360
35 616426 15 264183 10 176122
35 834622 15 357695 10 238464
35 1324369 15 567587 10 378391
35 511205 15 219088 10 146059
35 883695 15 378727 10 252484
35 624538 15 267659 10 178439
35 885396 15 379455 10 252970
35 988061 15 423455 10 282303
35 937442 15 401761 10 267841
35 1139621 15 488409 10 325606
35 790960 15 338983 10 225989
CARNE DE POLLO
Pronóstico
Año Mes t Demanda St Gt Ct Et |Et| E2t
SET
-11 0.45
-10 0.60
-9 0.78
-8 0.90
-7 1.05
-6 1.15
-5 1.21
-4 1.30
-3 1.27
-2 1.42
-1 1.51
Año Mes 0 Dt 5744.76 37.69 1.39 Ft Et |Et| E2t
1 1 2596.54 5776.79 36.27 0.45 2613.57 17.03 17.03 290.14
2 2 3462.05 5802.82 33.71 0.60 3503.22 41.16 41.16 1694.52
3 3 4500.67 5822.77 30.27 0.78 4572.57 71.90 71.90 5169.30
4 4 5193.08 5836.80 26.21 0.90 5290.96 97.88 97.88 9580.19
5 5 6058.59 5845.27 21.78 1.05 6183.30 124.70 124.70 15551.18
6 6 6577.90 5848.70 17.19 1.14 6717.92 140.02 140.02 19605.03
2015
7 7 6924.11 5847.72 12.65 1.20 7070.11 146.00 146.00 21315.46
8 8 7443.42 5843.03 8.31 1.29 7593.21 149.79 149.79 22437.97
9 9 7270.31 5835.35 4.32 1.26 7405.20 134.88 134.88 18193.33
10 10 8135.83 5825.43 0.76 1.41 8270.24 134.41 134.41 18066.25
11 11 8655.14 5813.97 -2.30 1.50 8777.82 122.68 122.68 15050.69
12 12 7962.72 5801.64 -4.81 1.38 8055.48 92.75 92.75 8603.06
13 1 5533.61 6766.30 237.56 0.54 2616.44 -2917.16 2917.16 8509850.93
14 2 5994.74 7449.13 348.88 0.65 4210.28 -1784.46 1784.46 3184293.42
15 3 6571.16 7890.67 372.04 0.79 6088.80 -482.36 482.36 232672.07
16 4 6686.44 8137.21 340.67 0.88 7439.79 753.34 753.34 567521.83
17 5 6340.59 8111.91 249.18 0.98 8902.59 2561.99 2561.99 6563812.97
18 6 6686.44 7986.77 155.60 1.06 9531.13 2844.69 2844.69 8092260.96
2016
19 7 6917.01 7785.65 66.42 1.12 9770.72 2853.71 2853.71 8143657.07
20 8 5879.46 7357.79 -57.15 1.17 10131.05 4251.59 4251.59 18076004.59
21 9 6225.31 6946.27 -145.74 1.17 9203.50 2978.19 2978.19 8869590.68
22 10 6628.80 6484.98 -224.63 1.31 9597.67 2968.87 2968.87 8814193.01
23 11 6917.01 6012.02 -286.71 1.41 9403.86 2486.85 2486.85 6184408.73
24 12 7262.86 5654.42 -304.44 1.36 7916.31 653.45 653.45 426990.49
25 1 5980.51 6199.64 -92.02 0.65 2904.90 -3075.61 3075.61 9459401.59
26 2 6366.35 6656.03 45.08 0.73 3982.43 -2383.92 2383.92 5683063.08
27 3 6173.43 6862.50 85.43 0.82 5319.38 -854.05 854.05 729397.64
28 4 6559.27 7022.87 104.16 0.89 6119.26 -440.01 440.01 193608.97
29 5 6752.19 7088.34 94.49 0.98 7005.74 253.55 253.55 64289.20
30 6 6848.65 7070.68 66.45 1.04 7644.34 795.69 795.69 633123.77
2017
31 7 7041.57 7007.87 34.14 1.09 8008.56 966.99 966.99 935066.62
32 8 6945.11 6878.05 -6.85 1.13 8221.19 1276.08 1276.08 1628386.00
33 9 7330.95 6780.75 -29.46 1.15 8036.10 705.16 705.16 497246.71
34 10 7427.41 6586.46 -70.67 1.27 8871.40 1443.99 1443.99 2085115.34
35 11 7427.41 6326.20 -118.07 1.35 9214.82 1787.41 1787.41 3194842.51
36 12 7234.49 6075.94 -151.12 1.32 8431.46 1196.97 1196.97 1432738.28
37 1 6033.82 6431.97 -24.33 0.72 3841.61 -2192.21 2192.21 4805766.96
38 2 6188.53 6721.34 54.09 0.78 4665.73 -1522.80 1522.80 2318921.10
39 3 6807.39 7003.99 111.23 0.86 5557.56 -1249.83 1249.83 1562074.76
2018
40 4 6962.10 7216.02 136.43 0.91 6361.33 -600.77 600.77 360921.43
41 5 7116.81 7344.05 134.33 0.97 7171.44 54.62 54.62 2983.82
42 6 6962.10 7360.45 104.85 1.02 7780.05 817.95 817.95 669038.71
2018
43 7 7271.53 7343.63 74.43 1.07 8157.89 886.36 886.36 785635.05
44 8 7271.53 7272.29 37.99 1.10 8367.76 1096.23 1096.23 1201723.73
45 9 7426.24 7184.54 6.55 1.12 8388.08 961.84 961.84 925133.14
46 10 7658.31 7018.78 -36.52 1.22 9114.30 1455.99 1455.99 2119894.87
47 11 7735.67 6791.78 -84.14 1.30 9455.30 1719.64 1719.64 2957148.05
48 12 8122.45 6627.11 -104.27 1.29 8829.04 706.59 706.59 499266.98
49 4701.79
50 4982.71
51 5418.74
52 5661.90
53 5945.77
54 6101.83
2019
55 6293.05
56 6349.00
57 6365.52 ME = 463.50
58 6831.70 MAD = 1192.79
59 7126.24 MSE = 2553450.05
60 6954.22 MAPE = 18%

12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Demanda Pronóstico
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000 Año
2015
5000 Año
2016
4000 Año
9000
8000
7000
6000 Año
2015
5000 Año
2016
4000 Año
2017
3000
2000
1000
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
%Et
Alfa Beta Gamma L

0.15 0.25 0.25 12
%Et y' Dt/y' Promedio Normalizado

1% 5782.45 0.45 0.67 0.66
1% 5820.13 0.59 0.78 0.76
2% 5857.82 0.77 0.90 0.89
2% 5895.51 0.88 0.97 0.95
2% 5933.19 1.02 1.01 0.99
2% 5970.88 1.10 1.07 1.05
2% 6008.56 1.15 1.11 1.09
2% 6046.25 1.23 1.07 1.05
2% 6083.94 1.20 1.07 1.05
2% 6121.62 1.33 1.17 1.15
1% 6159.31 1.41 1.23 1.20
1% 6197.00 1.28 1.19 1.17
53% 6234.68 0.89 12.23 12.00
30% 6272.37 0.96
7% 6310.06 1.04
11% 6347.74 1.05
40% 6385.43 0.99
43% 6423.11 1.04
41% 6460.80 1.07
72% 6498.49 0.90
48% 6536.17 0.95
45% 6573.86 1.01
36% 6611.55 1.05
9% 6649.23 1.09
51% 6686.92 0.89
37% 6724.60 0.95
14% 6762.29 0.91
7% 6799.98 0.96
4% 6837.66 0.99
12% 6875.35 1.00
14% 6913.04 1.02
18% 6950.72 1.00
10% 6988.41 1.05
19% 7026.10 1.06
24% 7063.78 1.05
17% 7101.47 1.02
36% 7139.15 0.85
25% 7176.84 0.86
18% 7214.53 0.94
9% 7252.21 0.96
1% 7289.90 0.98
12% 7327.59 0.95
12% 7365.27 0.99
15% 7402.96 0.98
13% 7440.64 1.00
19% 7478.33 1.02
22% 7516.02 1.03
9% 7553.70 1.08
as de desempeño
463.50
1192.79
2553450.05
18%
35 40 45 50
Año
2015
Año
2016
Año
Año
2015
Año
2016
Año
2017
MAPE(Error porcentual absoluto medio)
Promedio Suavización Suavización Suavización
Promedio
móvil exponencial exponencial exponencial
simple ponderado simple doble triple
Res 70% 72% 69% 75% 70%
Cerdo 62% 63% 65% 61% 46%
pollo 9% 8% 11% 14% 18%
RES PLAN AGREG
INVENTARIO CERO ENE FEB
DIAS LABORABLES 21 20
DEMANDA 1006963 1813104
UNIDADES POR TRABAJADOR 5880 5600
TRABAJADORES REQUERIDOS 172 324
TRABAJADORES ACTUALES 3 172
TRABAJADORES CONTRATADOS 169 152
TRABAJAORES DESPEDIDOS 0 0
TRABAJADORES UTILIZADOS 172 324
UNIDADES PRODUCIDAS 1006963.02428231 1813104.48496687
INVENTARIO 0 0
UNIDADES FALTANTES 0 0
COSTO POR CONTRATAR $ 59,150,000 $ 53,200,000.00

COSTO POR DESPEDIR $ - $ -
COSTO POR MANO DE OBRA $ 99,705,648.00 $ 178,873,920.00
COSTO DE ALMACENAR $ - $ -
COSTO DE FALTANTES $ - $ -
COSTO TOTAL $ 158,855,648 $ 232,073,920
RENDIMIENTO DE OPERARIO 1011360 1814400

100% 100%
O P ERA RIO S UTILIZA D O S

INVENTARIO CERO
$ 300,000,000 350
C O STO
$ 250,000,000 300
250
$ 200,000,000
200
$ 150,000,000
150
$ 100,000,000
100
$ 50,000,000 50
$- 0
ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC
COSTO TOTAL TRABAJADORES

MES UTILIZADOS
RES PLAN AGR
DEMANDA 268523 483495
UNIDADES PRODUCIDAS 268523 483495
INVENTARIO 0 0
COSTO POR CONTRATAR $ 26,950,000 $ 25,200,000

COSTO TOTAL $ 73,324,720 $ 109,116,160

100% 99%
TR A BA JA D O RES U TILIZA D O S
INVENTARIO CERO
$ 120,000,000 160
C O STO
140
$ 100,000,000
120
$ 80,000,000
100
$ 60,000,000 80
60
$ 40,000,000
40
$ 20,000,000
20
$- 0

MES UTILIZADOS
RES PLAN A
DEMANDA 167827 302184
INVENTARIO 0 0

COSTO TOTAL $ 36,137,360 $ 54,558,080

100% 99%
TR A B A JA D O R ES U TILIZA D O S
INVENTARIO CERO
$ 60,000,000 80
C O STO
70
$ 50,000,000
60
$ 40,000,000
50
$ 30,000,000 40
30
$ 20,000,000
20
$ 10,000,000
10
$- 0

MESES UTILIZADOS
RES PLAN AGREGADO DE PRODUCCION CON INVENTAR
MAR ABR MAY JUN
20 20 22 18
659929 1753223 1653646 832605
5600 5600 6160 5040
118 314 269 166
324 118 314 269
0 196 0 0
206 0 45 103
118 314 269 166
659928.86197757 1753222.77175916 1653645.68777422 832605.463941662
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
COSTOS DE PLAN AGREGADO POR PRODUCCION

$ - $ 68,600,000.00 $ - $ -
$ 90,640,000.00 $ - $ 19,800,000.00 $ 45,320,000.00
$ 65,145,440.00 $ 173,353,120.00 $ 163,360,472.00 $ 82,480,752.00
$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ 155,785,440 $ 241,953,120 $ 183,160,472 $ 127,800,752
660800 1758400 1657040 836640

100% 100% 100% 100%
O P ERA RIO S UTILIZA D O S
350
INVENTARIO CERO
600000
C O STO
300
500000
250
200 400000
150 300000
100
200000
50
100000
0
EP OCT NOV DIC
0
ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO
ZADOS UNIDADES PRODUCIDAS TRABAJADORE

MES
RES PLAN AGREGADO DE PRODUCCION CON INVENTA
MAR ABR MAY JUN
20 20 22 18
175981 467526 440972 222028
3200 3200 3520 2880
55 147 126 78
152 55 147 126
0 92 0 0
97 0 21 48
55 147 126 78
175981 467526 440972 222028
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0

$ - $ 32,200,000 $ - $ -
$ 42,680,000.00 $ - $ 9,240,000.00 $ 21,120,000.00
$ 30,364,400.00 $ 81,155,760.00 $ 76,518,288.00 $ 38,756,016.00
$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ 73,044,400 $ 113,355,760 $ 85,758,288 $ 59,876,016
176000 470400 443520 224640

100% 99% 99% 99%
TR A BA JA D O RES U TILIZA D O S
INVENTARIO CERO
160 600000
140
CO STO
500000
120
100 400000
80
300000
60
40 200000
20
100000
0
P OCT NOV DIC
0
ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SE
ZADOS UNIDADES PRODUCIDAS TRABAJADORES
MES U
RES PLAN AGREGADO DE PRODUCCION CON INVE
MAR ABR MAY JUN
20 20 22 18
109988 292204 275608 138768
4000 4000 4400 3600
28 74 63 39
76 28 74 63
0 46 0 0
48 0 11 24
28 74 63 39
109988 292204 275608 138768
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0

$ - $ 16,100,000 $ - $ -
$ 21,120,000.00 $ - $ 4,840,000.00 $ 10,560,000.00
$ 15,458,240.00 $ 40,853,920.00 $ 38,259,144.00 $ 19,378,008.00
$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ 36,578,240 $ 56,953,920 $ 43,099,144 $ 29,938,008
112000 296000 277200 140400

98% 99% 99% 99%
INVENTARIO CERO
80 350000
C O STO S
70 300000
60
250000
50
200000
40
150000
30
100000
20
10 50000
0 0
EP OCT NOV DIC ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO
ZADOS UNIDADES PRODUCIDAS TRABAJADORES

MESES
CON INVENTARIO CERO CARNE PARA ASAR
JUL AGO SEP OCT
22 20 21 22
1650328 1134003 933073 1653941
6160 5600 5880 6160
268 203 159 269
166 268 203 159
102 0 0 110
0 65 44 0
268 203 159 269
1650327.63348835 1134003.41047128 933073.417489759 1653941.12832586
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
GREGADO POR PRODUCCION

$ 35,700,000.00 $ - $ - $ 38,500,000.00
$ - $ 28,600,000.00 $ 19,360,000.00 $ -
$ 162,753,184.00 $ 112,072,240.00 $ 92,169,756.00 $ 163,360,472.00
$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ 198,453,184 $ 140,672,240 $ 111,529,756 $ 201,860,472
1650880 1136800 934920 1657040

100% 100% 100% 100%
INVENTARIO CERO
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC
DES PRODUCIDAS TRABAJADORES

MES UTILIZADOS
N CON INVENTARIO CERO SOBREBARRIGA
JUL AGO SEP OCT
22 20 21 22
440087 302401 248820 441051
3520 3200 3360 3520
126 95 75 126
78 126 95 75
48 0 0 51
0 31 20 0
126 95 75 126
440087 302401 248820 441051
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0

$ 16,800,000 $ - $ - $ 17,850,000
$ - $ 13,640,000.00 $ 8,800,000.00 $ -
$ 76,518,288.00 $ 52,447,600.00 $ 43,476,300.00 $ 76,518,288.00
$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ 93,318,288 $ 66,087,600 $ 52,276,300 $ 94,368,288
443520 304000 252000 443520

99% 99% 99% 99%
TR A BA JA D O RES UTILIZA D O S
INVENTARIO CERO
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
PRODUCIDAS TRABAJADORES
MES UTILIZADOS
CION CON INVENTARIO CERO CADERA
JUL AGO SEP OCT
22 20 21 22
275055 189001 155512 275657
4400 4000 4200 4400
63 48 38 63
39 63 48 38
24 0 0 25
0 15 10 0
63 48 38 63
275055 189001 155512 275657
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0

$ 8,400,000 $ - $ - $ 8,750,000
$ - $ 6,600,000.00 $ 4,400,000.00 $ -
$ 38,259,144.00 $ 26,499,840.00 $ 22,027,992.00 $ 38,259,144.00
$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ 46,659,144 $ 33,099,840 $ 26,427,992 $ 47,009,144
277200 192000 159600 277200

99% 98% 97% 99%
INVENTARIO CERO
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
S PRODUCIDAS TRABAJADORES
MESES UTILIZADOS
R
NOV DIC TOTAL
19 21 246
812707 1400889 15304412
5320 5880 68880
153 239 2654
269 153 2418
0 86 815
116 0 579
153 239 2654
812706.849296958 1400888.86081714 15304412
0 0 0
0 0 0
$ - $ 30,100,000.00 $ 285,250,000
$ 51,040,000.00 $ - $ 254,760,000
$ 80,244,828.00 $ 138,544,476.00 $ 1,512,064,308
$ - $ - $ -
$ - $ - $ -
$ 131,284,828 $ 168,644,476 $ 2,052,074,308
813960 1405320
100% 100% 100%
NOV DIC TOTAL
19 21 246
216722 373570 4081176
3040 3360 39360
72 112 1244
126 72 1135
0 40 380
54 0 271
72 112 1244
216722 373570 4081176
0 0 0
0 0 0
$ - $ 14,000,000 $ 133,000,000
$ 23,760,000.00 $ - $ 119,240,000
$ 37,762,272.00 $ 64,924,608.00 $ 708,732,700
$ - $ - $ -
$ - $ - $ -
$ 61,522,272 $ 78,924,608 $ 960,972,700
218880 376320
99% 99% 99%
NOV DIC TOTAL
19 21 246
135451 233481 2550735
3800 4200 49200
36 56 624
63 36 571
0 20 188
27 0 135
36 56 624
135451 233481 2550735
0 0 0
0 0 0
$ - $ 7,000,000 $ 65,800,000
$ 11,880,000.00 $ - $ 59,400,000
$ 18,881,136.00 $ 32,462,304.00 $ 355,484,312
$ - $ - $ -
$ - $ - $ -
$ 30,761,136 $ 39,462,304 $ 480,684,312
136800 235200
99% 99% 99%
PRODUCCION PROMEDIO POR OPERARIO 280 DIARIO
OPERARIOS ACTUALES INICIALES 3 TRABAJADORES
COSTO POR MANO DE OBRA $ 27,604 DIARIO
COSTO DE CONTRATAR UN OPERARIO $ 350,000 EMPLEADO
COSTO DE DESPEDIR UN OPERARIO $ 440,000 EMPLEADO
COSTO DE ALMACENAR $ 40,000 POR MES
COSTO POR FALTANTE 0
HORAS JORNADA LABORAL 8 HORAS
INVENTARIO INICIAL 0 UNIDADES
produccion promedio de trabajador diario

Producto Bandejas Cant. Diaria
Carne para Asar 35 280
Plan Agregado con inventario cero se usa cuando los costos de almacenamiento son muy elevados
por lo que se toma como estrategia evitar los inventarios, en este metodo se iguala los niveles de
produccion mes a mes con la demanda asi la produccion sera igual a nuestra demanda que
requiere el mercado. Adicional a esto no puede almacenarce ya que son alimentos perecederos.

Sobrebarriga 20 160

Cadera 25 200
767091268
Res - pronostico año 2019 utilizando
suavizacion exponencial triple
Carne para asar
Mes % Kg requeridos
Enero 30 1006963
Febrero 30 1813104
Marzo 30 659929
Abril 30 1753223
Mayo 30 1653646
Junio 30 832605
Julio 30 1650328
Agosto 30 1134003
Septiembre 30 933073
Octubre 30 1653941
Noviembre 30 812707
Diciembre 30 1400889
Sobrebarriga
Mes % Kg requeridos
Enero 8 268523
Febrero 8 483495
Marzo 8 175981
Abril 8 467526
Mayo 8 440972
Junio 8 222028
Julio 8 440087
Agosto 8 302401
Septiembre 8 248820
Octubre 8 441051
Noviembre 8 216722
Diciembre 8 373570
Cadera
Mes % Kg requeridos
Enero 5 167827
Febrero 5 302184
Marzo 5 109988
Abril 5 292204
Mayo 5 275608
Junio 5 138768
Julio 5 275055
Agosto 5 189001
Septiembre 5 155512
Octubre 5 275657
Noviembre 5 135451
Diciembre 5 233481
CERDO PLAN A
DEMANDA 571759 616426
INVENTARIO 0 0
COSTO POR CONTRATAR $ 39,200,000 $ 5,250,000.00

COSTO TOTAL $ 105,283,976 $ 76,468,320

100% 100%
$ 200,000,000 INVENTARIO CERO

$ 180,000,000
$ 160,000,000
Costo
$ 140,000,000
$ 120,000,000
$ 100,000,000
$ 80,000,000
$ 60,000,000
$ 40,000,000
$ 20,000,000
$-
ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV

Meses UTILIZADOS
CERDO PLAN AG
DEMANDA 245040 264183
INVENTARIO 0 0

COSTO TOTAL $ 90,409,032 $ 65,830,880

99% 99%
INVENTARIO CERO
$ 180,000,000
CO STO
$ 160,000,000
$ 140,000,000
$ 120,000,000
$ 100,000,000
$ 80,000,000
$ 60,000,000
$ 40,000,000
$ 20,000,000
$-

Axis Title UTILIZADOS
CERDOPLAN A
DEMANDA 163360 176122
INVENTARIO 0 0

COSTO TOTAL $ 22,542,100 $ 16,508,240

97% 98%
INVENTARIO CERO
$ 45,000,000
CO STO
$ 40,000,000
$ 35,000,000
$ 30,000,000
$ 25,000,000
$ 20,000,000
$ 15,000,000
$ 10,000,000
$ 5,000,000
$-
ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DI

Axis TitleUTILIZADOS
CERDO PLAN AGREGADO DE PRODUCCION CON INV
MAR ABR MAY JUN
20 20 22 18
834622 1324369 511205 883695
4800 4800 5280 4320
174 276 97 205
129 174 276 97
45 102 0 108
0 0 179 0
174 276 97 205
834622 1324369 511205 883695
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0

$ 15,750,000.00 $ 35,700,000.00 $ - $ 37,800,000.00
$ - $ - $ 78,760,000.00 $ -
$ 96,061,920.00 $ 152,374,080.00 $ 58,906,936.00 $ 101,858,760.00
$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ 111,811,920 $ 188,074,080 $ 137,666,936 $ 139,658,760
835200 1324800 512160 885600

100% 100% 100% 100%
O p e rario s U ti liz ad o s
300 1400000 INVENTARI

CO S TO S
1200000
250
1000000
200
800000
150
600000
100 400000
50 200000
0 0
UL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN
sORES UTILIZADOS UNIDADES PRODUCIDAS

CERDO PLAN AGREGADO DE PRODUCCION CON INVEN
MAR ABR MAY JUN
20 20 22 18
357695 567587 219088 378727
2400 2400 2640 2160
150 237 83 176
111 150 237 83
39 87 0 93
0 0 154 0
150 237 83 176
357695 567587 219088 378727
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0

$ 13,650,000 $ 30,450,000 $ - $ 32,550,000
$ - $ - $ 67,760,000.00 $ -
$ 82,812,000.00 $ 130,842,960.00 $ 50,404,904.00 $ 87,449,472.00
$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ 96,462,000 $ 161,292,960 $ 118,164,904 $ 119,999,472
360000 568800 219120 380160

99% 100% 100% 100%
O PERA RIO S UTILIZA DO S
INVENTARIO CERO
600000
COSTO
500000
250
400000
200
300000
150
200000
100
100000
50
0
0 ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL
AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC
ES UTILIZADOS UNIDADES PRODUCIDAS TRABAJA

Axis
tle
CERDOPLAN AGREGADO DE PRODUCCION CON INVE
MAR ABR MAY JUN
20 20 22 18
238464 378391 146059 252484
6400 6400 7040 5760
38 60 21 44
28 38 60 21
10 22 0 23
0 0 39 0
38 60 21 44
238464 378391 146059 252484
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0

$ 3,500,000 $ 7,700,000 $ - $ 8,050,000
$ - $ - $ 17,160,000.00 $ -
$ 20,979,040.00 $ 33,124,800.00 $ 12,753,048.00 $ 21,862,368.00
$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ 24,479,040 $ 40,824,800 $ 29,913,048 $ 29,912,368
243200 384000 147840 253440

98% 99% 99% 100%
O P ERA RIO S UTILIZA DO S
INVENTARIO CERO
400000
COSTO
350000
70 300000
60 250000
50 200000
40
150000
30
100000
20
50000
10
0
0 ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL
AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC
ES UTILIZADOS UNIDADES PRODUCIDAS TRABAJADO

Axis T
itle
CCION CON INVENTARIO CERO MILANESA
JUL AGO SEP OCT
22 20 21 22
624538 885396 988061 937442
5280 4800 5040 5280
119 185 197 178
205 119 185 197
0 66 12 0
86 0 0 19
119 185 197 178
624538 885396 988061 937442
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0

$ - $ 23,100,000.00 $ 4,200,000.00 $ -
$ 37,840,000.00 $ - $ - $ 8,360,000.00
$ 72,267,272.00 $ 102,134,800.00 $ 114,197,748.00 $ 108,097,264.00
$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ 110,107,272 $ 125,234,800 $ 118,397,748 $ 116,457,264
628320 888000 992880 939840

99% 100% 100% O PE R AR IO S U TILIZ AD O S
100%
INVENTARIO CERO 300
250
200
150
100
50
0
ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC
UNIDADES PRODUCIDAS TRABAJADORES UTILIZADOS

Meses
ON CON INVENTARIO CERO SOBREBARRIGA
JUL AGO SEP OCT
22 20 21 22
267659 379455 423455 401761
2640 2400 2520 2640
102 159 169 153
176 102 159 169
0 57 10 0
74 0 0 16
102 159 169 153
267659 379455 423455 401761
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0

$ - $ 19,950,000 $ 3,500,000 $ -
$ 32,560,000.00 $ - $ - $ 7,040,000.00
$ 61,943,376.00 $ 87,780,720.00 $ 97,966,596.00 $ 92,915,064.00
$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ 94,503,376 $ 107,730,720 $ 101,466,596 $ 99,955,064
269280 381600 425880 403920

99% 99% 99% 99%
INVENTARIO CERO
250
200
150
100
50
0
NIDADES PRODUCIDAS TRABAJADORES

CION CON INVENTARIO CERO CHORIZOS
JUL AGO SEP OCT
22 20 21 22
178439 252970 282303 267841
7040 6400 6720 7040
26 40 43 39
44 26 40 43
0 14 3 0
18 0 0 4
26 40 43 39
178439 252970 282303 267841
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0

$ - $ 4,900,000 $ 1,050,000 $ -
$ 7,920,000.00 $ - $ - $ 1,760,000.00
$ 15,789,488.00 $ 22,083,200.00 $ 24,926,412.00 $ 23,684,232.00
$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ 23,709,488 $ 26,983,200 $ 25,976,412 $ 25,444,232
183040 256000 288960 274560

97% 99% 98% 98%
INVENTARIO CERO
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
DADES PRODUCIDAS TRABAJADORES

NOV DIC TOTAL
19 21 246
1139621 790960 10108094
4560 5040 59040
250 157 2081
178 250 1926
72 0 532
0 93 377
250 157 2081
1139621 790960.147892461 10108094
0 0 0
0 0 0
$ 25,200,000.00 $ - $ 186,200,000
$ - $ 40,920,000.00 $ 165,880,000
$ 131,119,000.00 $ 91,010,388.00 $ 1,165,330,464
$ - $ - $ -
$ - $ - $ -
$ 156,319,000 $ 131,930,388 $ 1,517,410,464
1140000 791280
100% 100% 100%
A
NOV DIC TOTAL
19 21 246
488409 338983 4332040
2280 2520 29520
215 135 1788
153 215 1655
62 0 457
0 80 324
215 135 1788
488409 338983 4332040
0 0 0
0 0 0
$ 21,700,000 $ - $ 159,950,000
$ - $ 35,200,000.00 $ 142,560,000
$ 112,762,340.00 $ 78,257,340.00 $ 1,001,224,684
$ - $ - $ -
$ - $ - $ -
$ 134,462,340 $ 113,457,340 $ 1,303,734,684
490200 340200
100% 100% 100%
NOV DIC TOTAL
19 21 246
325606 225989 2888027
6080 6720 78720
54 34 452
39 54 420
15 0 113
0 20 81
54 34 452
325606 225989 2888027
0 0 0
0 0 0
$ 5,250,000 $ - $ 39,550,000
$ - $ 8,800,000.00 $ 35,640,000
$ 28,321,704.00 $ 19,709,256.00 $ 253,183,888
$ - $ - $ -
$ - $ - $ -
$ 33,571,704 $ 28,509,256 $ 328,373,888
328320 228480
99% 99% 98%

Milanesa 30 240

Costilla 15 120

Chorizos 40 320
Milanesa
Mes % Kg requeridos
Enero 35 571759
Febrero 35 616426
Marzo 35 834622
Abril 35 1324369
Mayo 35 511205
Junio 35 883695
Julio 35 624538
Agosto 35 885396
Octubre 35 937442
Noviembre 35 1139621
Diciembre 35 790960
Costilla
Mes % Kg requeridos
Enero 15 245040
Febrero 15 264183
Marzo 15 357695
Abril 15 567587
Mayo 15 219088
Junio 15 378727
Julio 15 267659
Agosto 15 379455
Octubre 15 401761
Noviembre 15 488409
Diciembre 15 338983
Chorizos
Mes % Kg requeridos
Enero 10 163360
Febrero 10 176122
Marzo 10 238464
Abril 10 378391
Mayo 10 146059
Junio 10 252484
Julio 10 178439
Agosto 10 252970
Octubre 10 267841
Noviembre 10 325606
Diciembre 10 225989
POLLO PLAN AGRE
FUERZA DE TRABAJO CONSTANTE ENE FEB
DEMANDA 792132 792132
UNIDADES DISPONIBLES 811440 792108
INVENTARIO 19308 0
COSTO POR CONTRATAR $ 112,000,000.00 $ -

COSTO POR MANO DE OBRA $ 186,658,248 $ 177,769,760
COSTO DE ALMACENAR $ 540,618,045.57 $ -
COSTO TOTAL $ 839,276,294 $ 177,769,760
FUERZA CONSTANTE
$ 4,000,000,000
$ 3,500,000,000
COSTO
$ 3,000,000,000
$ 2,500,000,000
$ 2,000,000,000
$ 1,500,000,000
$ 1,000,000,000
$ 500,000,000
$-
ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV

La fuerza constante esta en los operarios porque el costo del plan agregado tiene variedad en el transcurso de los
POLLO PLAN AGREGA

FUERZA DE TRABAJO CONSTANTE ENE FEB
DEMANDA 792132 792132
UNIDADES DISPONIBLES 811440 792108
INVENTARIO 19308 0
COSTO POR CONTRATAR $ 55,650,000.00 $ -

COSTO DE ALMACENAR $ 540,618,045.57 $ -
COSTO TOTAL $ 689,597,170 $ 88,884,880
FUERZA CONSTANTE
$ 4,000,000,000
$ 3,500,000,000
COSTO
$ 3,000,000,000
$ 2,500,000,000
$ 2,000,000,000
$ 1,500,000,000
$ 1,000,000,000
$ 500,000,000
$-
ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NO

$ 1,000,000,000
$ 500,000,000
$-
ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NO

La fuerza constante esta en los operarios porque el costo del plan agregado tiene variedad en el transcurso de los
POLLO PLAN AGREGADO DE PRODUCCION CON FUERZA D
MAR ABR MAY JUN
20 20 22 18
792132 792132 792132 792132
2400 2400 2640 2160
322 322 322 322
322 322 322 322
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
322 322 322 322
772800 772800 850080 695520
772800 772800 850080 753468
0 0 57948 0
19332 19332 0 38664

$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ 177,769,760 $ 177,769,760 $ 195,546,736 $ 159,992,784
$ - $ - $ 1,622,538,045.57 $ -
$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ 177,769,760 $ 177,769,760 $ 1,818,084,782 $ 159,992,784
OPERARIOS UTILIZADOS
FUERZA
900000
ANTE
350 800000
COSTO
300 700000
600000
250
500000
200
400000
150
300000
100 200000
50 100000
0
0 ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JU
JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC
ADORES UNIDADES PRODUCIDAS

is Title UTILIZADOS
egado tiene variedad en el transcurso de los meses Se evidencia una fuerza laboral constante y las unidades pro
OLLO PLAN AGREGADO DE PRODUCCION CON FUERZA DE

MAR ABR MAY JUN
20 20 22 18
792132 792132 792132 792132
4800 4800 5280 4320
161 161 161 161
161 161 161 161
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
161 161 161 161
772800 772800 850080 695520
772800 772800 850080 753468
0 0 57948 0
19332 19332 0 38664

$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ 88,884,880.00 $ 88,884,880.00 $ 97,773,368.00 $ 79,996,392.00
$ - $ - $ 1,622,538,045.57 $ -
$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ 88,884,880 $ 88,884,880 $ 1,720,311,414 $ 79,996,392
OPERARIOS UTILIZADOS
FUERZ
900000
ANTE
180 800000
160
COSTO
700000
140
600000
120
500000
100
400000
80
300000
60
200000
40
100000
20
0 0
JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY
JADORES
Axis Title UTILIZADOS UNIDADES PRODUCIDA
200000
40
100000
20
0 0
JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY
JADORES
Axis Title UTILIZADOS UNIDADES PRODUCIDA
egado tiene variedad en el transcurso de los meses Se evidencia una fuerza laboral constante y las unidades pro
N CON FUERZA DE TRABAJO CONSTANTE ALAS
JUL AGO SEP OCT
22 20 21 22
792132 792132 792132 792132
2640 2400 2520 2640
322 322 322 322
322 322 322 322
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
322 322 322 322
850080 772800 811440 850080
850080 830748 850056 908003
57948 38616 57923 115871
0 0 0 0

$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ 195,546,736 $ 177,769,760 $ 186,658,248 $ 195,546,736
$ 1,622,538,045.57 $ 1,081,236,091.14 $ 1,621,854,136.71 $ 3,244,392,182.28
$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ 1,818,084,782 $ 1,259,005,851 $ 1,808,512,385 $ 3,439,938,918
FUERZA CONSTANTE
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC
UNIDADES PRODUCIDAS TRABAJADORES

aboral constante y las unidades producidas varian dependiendo de los dias laborables de cada mes
ON FUERZA DE TRABAJO CONSTANTE PECHUGA

JUL AGO SEP OCT
22 20 21 22
792132 792132 792132 792132
5280 4800 5040 5280
161 161 161 161
161 161 161 161
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
161 161 161 161
850080 772800 811440 850080
850080 830748 850056 908003
57948 38616 57923 115871
0 0 0 0

$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ 97,773,368.00 $ 88,884,880.00 $ 93,329,124.00 $ 97,773,368.00
$ 1,622,538,045.57 $ 1,081,236,091.14 $ 1,621,854,136.71 $ 3,244,392,182.28
$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ 1,720,311,414 $ 1,170,120,971 $ 1,715,183,261 $ 3,342,165,550
FUERZA CONSTANTE
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0

40
20
0

aboral constante y las unidades producidas varian dependiendo de los dias laborables de cada mes
LAS
NOV DIC TOTAL
19 21 246
792132 792132 9505587
2280 2520 29520
322 322 322
322 322
0 0 320
0 0 0
322 322 322
734160 811440 9505440
850031 869339 9910952
57899 77207 482719
0 0 77353
$ - $ - $ 112,000,000
$ - $ - $ -
$ 168,881,272 $ 186,658,248.00 $ 2,186,568,048
$ 1,621,170,227.85 $ 2,161,788,273.42 $ 13,516,135,048
$ - $ - $ -
$ 1,790,051,500 $ 2,348,446,521 $ 15,814,703,096
FUERZA CONSTANTE
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
ENE FEB MAR ABR
TRABAJADORESMAY
UTILIZADOS JUN JUL
DEMANDA AGO SEP
UNIDADES PRODUCIDAS O
Comportamiento mes a mes de la demanda y las unidades producidas con la fuerza constante de traba
HUGA
NOV DIC TOTAL
19 21 246
792132 792132 9505587
4560 5040 59040
161 161 161
161 161
0 0 159
0 0 0
161 161 1932
734160 811440 9505440
850031 869339 9910952
57899 77207 482719
0 0 77353
$ - $ - $ 55,650,000
$ - $ - $ -
$ 84,440,636.00 $ 93,329,124.00 $ 1,093,284,024
$ 1,621,170,227.85 $ 2,161,788,273.42 $ 13,516,135,048
$ - $ - $ -
$ 1,705,610,864 $ 2,255,117,397 $ 14,665,069,072
FUERZA CONSTANTE
180
180
160
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
0 20
DIC
0
ENE FEB MAR ABR
TRABAJADORESMAY
UTILIZADOS JUN JUL
DEMANDA AGO SEP
UNIDADES PRODUCIDAS
40
40
20
0 20
DIC
0
ENE FEB MAR ABR
TRABAJADORESMAY
UTILIZADOS JUN JUL
DEMANDA AGO SEP
UNIDADES PRODUCIDAS
Comportamiento mes a mes de la demanda y las unidades producidas con la fuerza constante de traba
COSTO DIARIO POR MANO DE OBRA $ 27,604 DIARIO
COSTO DE ALMACENAR $ 28,000 MES
PRODUCCION PROMEDIO POR HORA 0

Alas 15 120
Plan Agregado de fuerza constante consiste en determinar un cantidad constante de recursos en

un determinado periodo de planificacion esto indica que la demanda va fluctuando al rededor de
la disponibilidad de estos recursos se utiliza cuando es muy dificil o costoso alterar los recursos de
una empres a en este caso la fuerza laboral.
ZA CONSTANTE
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
N JUL
DEMANDA AGO SEP
UNIDADES PRODUCIDAS OCT NOV DIC
dades producidas con la fuerza constante de trabajadores utilizados

COSTO DIARIO POR MANO DE OBRA $ 27,604 DIARIO
COSTO DE ALMACENAR $ 28,000 MES
PRODUCCION PROMEDIO POR HORA 0

Pechuga 30 240
Plan Agregado de fuerza constante consiste en determinar un cantidad constante de recursos en

un determinado periodo de planificacion esto indica que la demanda va fluctuando al rededor de
la disponibilidad de estos recursos se utiliza cuando es muy dificil o costoso alterar los recursos de
una empres a en este caso la fuerza laboral.
ERZA CONSTANTE
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
JUN JUL
DEMANDA AGO SEP
200000
100000
0
JUN JUL
DEMANDA AGO SEP
dades producidas con la fuerza constante de trabajadores utilizados

pollo - pronostico año 2019 utilizando
promedio ponderado
Alas
Mes % Kg requeridos
Enero 10 792132
Febrero 10 792132
Marzo 10 792132
Abril 10 792132
Mayo 10 792132
Junio 10 792132
Julio 10 792132
Agosto 10 792132
Octubre 10 792132
Noviembre 10 792132
Diciembre 10 792132
pollo - pronostico año 2019 utilizando
promedio ponderado
Pechuga
Mes % Kg requeridos
Enero 50 792132
Febrero 50 792132
Marzo 50 792132
Abril 50 792132
Mayo 50 792132
Junio 50 792132
Julio 50 792132
Agosto 50 792132
Octubre 50 792132
Noviembre 50 792132
Diciembre 50 792132

2 Entrega Pronósticos, Error, Cantidades Espesíficas 21 Abril

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2 Entrega Pronósticos, Error, Cantidades Espesíficas 21 Abril

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CARNE DE RES

Promedio Móvil Simple

Promedio Móvil Simple

Promedio Móvil Simple

pollo - pronostico año 2019 utilizando promedio p

Suavización Exponencial Simple

Suavización Exponencial Simple

Suavización Exponencial Simple

Suavización Exponencial Doble

|Et| E2t %Et Año Mes Demanda St

ación Exponencial Doble

Suavización Exponencial Doble

Suavización Exponencial Triple

Alfa Beta Gamma L

E2t %Et y' Dt/y' Promedio Normalizado

Suavización Exponencial Triple

Alfa Beta Gamma L

E2t %Et y' Dt/y' Promedio Normalizado

Suavización Exponencial Triple

Alfa Beta Gamma L

%Et y' Dt/y' Promedio Normalizado

COSTO POR CONTRATAR $ 59,150,000 $ 53,200,000.00

RENDIMIENTO DE OPERARIO 1011360 1814400

O P ERA RIO S UTILIZA D O S

COSTO TOTAL TRABAJADORES

COSTO POR CONTRATAR $ 26,950,000 $ 25,200,000

RENDIMIENTO DE OPERARIO 268800 486400

COSTO TOTAL TRABAJADORES

COSTO POR CONTRATAR $ 12,950,000 $ 12,600,000

RENDIMIENTO DE OPERARIO 168000 304000

COSTO TOTAL TRABAJADORES

COSTOS DE PLAN AGREGADO POR PRODUCCION

660800 1758400 1657040 836640

ZADOS UNIDADES PRODUCIDAS TRABAJADORE

COSTOS DE PLAN AGREGADO POR PRODUCCION

176000 470400 443520 224640

COSTOS DE PLAN AGREGADO POR PRODUCCION

112000 296000 277200 140400

ZADOS UNIDADES PRODUCIDAS TRABAJADORES

GREGADO POR PRODUCCION

1650880 1136800 934920 1657040

DES PRODUCIDAS TRABAJADORES

GREGADO POR PRODUCCION

443520 304000 252000 443520

GREGADO POR PRODUCCION

277200 192000 159600 277200

produccion promedio de trabajador diario

produccion promedio de trabajador diario

produccion promedio de trabajador diario

COSTO POR CONTRATAR $ 39,200,000 $ 5,250,000.00

RENDIMIENTO DE OPERARIO 574560 619200

$ 200,000,000 INVENTARIO CERO

COSTO TOTAL TRABAJADORES

COSTO POR CONTRATAR $ 33,600,000 $ 4,550,000

RENDIMIENTO DE OPERARIO 246960 266400

COSTO TOTAL TRABAJADORES

COSTO POR CONTRATAR $ 8,050,000 $ 1,050,000

RENDIMIENTO DE OPERARIO 168000 179200

COSTO TOTAL TRABAJADORES

COSTOS DE PLAN AGREGADO POR PRODUCCION

835200 1324800 512160 885600

300 1400000 INVENTARI

sORES UTILIZADOS UNIDADES PRODUCIDAS