South China Sea:

Theater of Power Rivalry

Part 4 of 4
Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer
Presentation to Katagalan Forum – 2020 Asia-Pacific Security Dialogue
sponsored by
Institute for National Defense and Security Research for Taiwan,
Webinar, Taipei, Taiwan
September 8, 2020
 Tactical Level – Grey Zone Activities

• ‘Grey zone’ is one of a range of terms used to describe

activities designed to coerce countries in ways that seek to
avoid military conflict. Examples include using para-military
forces [and] militarisation of disputed features…
• Australian Government, Department of Defence, 2020 Defence
Strategic Update, p. 12.
 Grey Zone Tactics
• Coercive aggression below the threshold of major war
• These tactics include China's unprecedented expansion of
artificial islands, as well as the use of law enforcement and
maritime militia vessels in an unprofessional and escalatory
manner to deter or deny the use of living and nonliving
resources in the waters. Finally, China has supplemented
these strategies with growing employment of economic
coercion and political subversion.
• Rand Corporation (2019)
China Harasses Oil & Gas Exploration
 Conclusion
• Major power competition, coercion and military
modernisation are increasing the potential for and
consequences of miscalculation. While still unlikely, the
prospect of high-intensity military conflict in the Indo-
Pacific, is less remote than at the time of the 2016 Defence
White Paper, including high-intensity conflict between the
United States and China.
• Australian Government, Department of Defence, 2020 Defence
Strategic Update (July 1, 2020), p. 14.
 Conclusion
• “The once unthinkable outcome – actual armed
conflict between the United States and China – now
appears possible for the first time since the end of the
Korean War. In other words, we are confronting the
prospect of not just a new Cold War, but a hot one as
well.”
• Kevin Rudd, “Beware the Guns of August—in Asia,”
Foreign Affairs, August 3, 2020.
 Conclusion

• “If the US goes further, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army

could take more countermeasures, including live-fire missile
drills east of Taiwan Island and near Guam.”
–Senior Communist Party of China official (August 2020)
• More than any time in the last decade, strategic rivalry between the
People’s Republic of China and the United States could lead to armed
conflict in the South China Sea.