T H E N E W S I N B R I E F

any US action.” eign interference in our internal affairs is

“Anytime something happens like this
– whether it’s the parcel bomb plot or the
bomb attempt on Christmas Day – Yemen
gets really nervous, especially with the re-
cent track record America has going into
Iraq and Afghanistan,” adds Mr. Johnsen.
The moves, coming amid intensified US
Europe Calderón joined leaders across the
Greece stopped all mail headed region in calling Prop. 19 contra-
not welcome.” dictory and counterproductive,
overseas and screened thousands
past leaders with fewer pressures
of packages in an attempt to stop
Saleh holds Yemen together by playing an have come out in favor of legal-
a spate of parcel bombs target-
intricate balancing act with powerful tribal izing drugs.
ing diplomatic missions in Athens
sheikhs – a calculus that may have dis-
and leaders across Europe. The
suaded the Yemeni government from hand-
ing Mr. Awlaki over to the Americans.
attempted attacks showed a new ASIa
willingness by Greek militant President Obama embarked on
This puts US counterterrorism strat-

V
WHY IT MATTERS
The CIA now views Al Qaeda in
Yemen as the most urgent global
threat. But a more direct US role
could disrupt tribal relations and aid
militant recruitment.
pressure, reflect the delicate balance both
countries must strike between fighting an
effective counterterrorism operation and
satisfying their populaces.
After the US led two recent invasions
– of Iraq and Afghanistan – in the name of
routing out terrorism, Yemen is eager to
avoid US intervention.
Americans, however, are increasingly
concerned that Yemen “may not be up
to the job,” as former US Secretary of
Homeland Security Michael Chertoff put it
after the cargo bomb plot was uncovered.
“For the Americans, it’s difficult not to
overreact,” says Christopher Boucek of
the Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace. “I think the knee-jerk reaction
would be a military response, which
will not improve security and stability in
Yemen.”
The US is reportedly mulling over
egy in a difficult position, as circumvent-
ing Yemeni tribal relations could have
dire consequences for this nation, which
already has a weak central government.
Additionally, direct American military
action such as drone strikes, which often
kill civilians, could work as a propaganda
tool for AQAP in areas of the country
where populations are disgruntled with
the central government.
Already, citizens in the governorates
believed to be AQAP hotbeds – including
Abyan and Shabwa – are upset with the air-
strikes launched over the past 10 months,
at least some of which appear to have been
joint US-Yemeni operations.
“The opinion of everyone on the
streets of Abyan and Shabwa [is] against
the attacks and that the attacks from both
Yemen and America are wrong,” says
Fadhel Ali, a local journalist and resident
of Zinjibar in Abyan Province, where a
strike last December killed 35 women
and children as well as 14 militants, ac-
cording to an Amnesty International re-
port. “They don’t have any results. They
just make civilians scared. They kill civil-
ians, not Al Qaeda.”
groups to export terrorism abroad.
France and Britain opened a
new era of defense cooperation,
signing an
agreement
Nov. 2 to
share nuclear
technology
and create a
rapid-reaction
Combined President Sarkozy (l.) and
Prime Minister David Cameron
Joint Expedi­
tionary Force. The bond between
Europe’s two largest military pow-
ers comes as the center of eco-
nomic gravity and political power
shifts to Germany.
Middle East
Nuclear talks with Iran are
expected to restart in mid-Novem-
ber. Iran has in the past rejected
pressure to send its nuclear
stockpile overseas in exchange for
technical assistance, though new
sanctions against Tehran could
push it to consider the deal.
an Asia-wide tour with stopovers
in India, Indonesia, Japan, and
South Korea – all countries said to
be essential to the recovery of the
US economy and vital to con-
taining an increasingly aggres-
sive China. The US “hedge”
tactic is straightforward,
reports New Delhi bureau chief
Ben Arnoldy: Expand involve-
ment in East Asia regional
AP
forums, military exercises, and
agreements to include the US
and India, thereby diluting Chinese
opportunities for domination. The
tactic was expected to get its first
test in mid-November when G20
leaders meet in Seoul.
Africa
Kenyan minister William
Ruto, accused of links to Kenya’s
postelection
violence in
2008, met Nov.
4 with the
International
Criminal Court’s
chief pros- William Ruto Reuters

heightened actions, including a CIA-run
hit squad. But cracking down on AQAP
requires a sensitive approach in Yemen,
where the public doesn’t see AQAP as a
primary concern, and strong tribal net-
works are known to shelter militants.
Caught between US demands and
Yemeni antipathy, Mr. Saleh has stressed
– in what many analysts say is an effort
to save face – that while his government
worked with outside governments on intel-
ligence gathering, it will not accept outside
military interference.
“We acknowledge that we have a prob-
lem with terrorism, specifically the pres-
ence of Al Qaeda, and we continue to pay
a high price,” said Saleh the day after the
bomb plot failed. “While we appreciate
and express gratitude to those parties that
provide us with good intelligence ... for-
Many have criticized the US approach as too
impatient and leaning too much toward
military help, without due consideration
of other problems such as corruption, pov-
erty, and an impending water crisis.
“No immediate action is going to yield
the results that the US wants to see, which
is a reduced Al Qaeda that is no longer able
to threaten the US,” Johnsen says. “The US
has neglected Yemen for a long time, and
now it’s paying the price.”
Mohammed Al Sabri, the former
spokesman for a Yemeni opposition coali-
tion, says the US is looking at effects, not
causes. “Americans have a problem setting
their priorities. Now their priority is Al
Qaeda, and we think that Al Qaeda is only
a symptom,” he says. “The main sickness
in Yemen is ... the sickness of the govern-
ment. The political system is disabled.” r
Al Qaeda’s front group in Iraq
declared all Christians “legitimate
targets,” days after it seized a
Baghdad church Oct. 31, leaving
58 people dead. Attacks will not
end, the group said, until Egypt’s
Coptic Church releases women
supposedly held captive for con-
verting to Islam. Underscoring Al
Qaeda’s threat, a separate front
group detonated a series of car
bombs across Baghdad Nov. 2 that
killed at least 113 people.
Americas
Latin American leaders breathed
a sigh of relief as California
rejected legalizing marijuana. But
while Mexican President Felipe
ecutor. As the
investigation continues from The
Hague, Mr. Ruto is also facing pres-
sure at home, being suspended as
education minister amid corrup-
tion allegations.
Liberia’s president fired her cab-
inet, save one person, saying she
wanted “a fresh slate.” Africa’s first
female president, Ellen Johnson
Sirleaf is expected to seek reelec-
tion next year.
South Africa’s first Zulu-
language newspaper, an edition
of The Sunday Times, launched on
Nov. 7. Zulu is spoken by a quarter
of all South Africans, including
President Jacob Zuma.

Peninsula (AQAP), headed by a former
bin Laden secretary.
August 2009 AQAP suicide bomber
dies trying to assassinate Saudi coun-
terterrorism chief.
Dec. 17, 2009 Airstrike kills 14 mili-
Dec. 24, 2009 In separate strikes,
Yemen claims to kill 30 AQAP suspects.
Dec. 25, 2009 AQAP ‘Underwear
bomber’ tries to down flight near
Detroit.
January 2010 US more than doubles
to $150 million.
April 2010 AQAP suicide bomber dies
in attack on Britain’s ambassador to
Yemen.
August 2010 The Washington Post
reports that CIA analysts now see AQAP
Oct. 29, 2010 Global intelligence
agencies intercept US-bound bombs
that originated in Yemen and appar-
ently were intended to blow up planes
over Chicago.
Sources: Previous Monitor coverage; 9/11 Commission
report, Jamestown Foundation, Al Jazeera, Gregory
Johnsen’s Waq al-Waq blog

tants, as well as 35 women and children. counterterrorism aid from $67 million as the most urgent threat to US security.

The Christian Science Monitor | November 15, 2010 9