Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Carlyle A. Thayer
Evaluating China’s Recent
Military Exercises
September 6, 2020

We request your assessment of recent military exercises in the South China Sea carried
out by China.
Q1. Recently, China conducted two exercises over two consecutive months in the
Paracels Islands. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) also deployed new H-6J bombers
to Woody Island for the first time. What is your assessment about these
developments?
ANSWER: The deterioration in relations between the United States and China over
trade and tariffs, China’s mishandling of the coronavirus, imposition of a national
security law in Hong Kong, and other issues has spilled over to the South China Sea.
China and the United States are now caught up in an action-reaction cycle to
demonstrate their military prowess.
China conducted an unprecedented number of naval exercises this year initially to
seize the initiative when the USS Theodore Roosevelt was stricken with COVID-19 and
had to be stood down from operations. At the same time, the U.S. increased the
number of Freedom of Navigation Operational Patrols to demonstrate it could
maintain its naval presence in the South China Sea.
This year, the U.S. deployed three nuclear-powered aircraft carriers to the Philippine
and South China Seas in a major show of force. The U.S. conducted a series of exercises
combining two Carrier Strike Groups into a Carrier Strike Force. One exercise involved
a strategic bomber flown from Louisiana in the southern United States to the South
China Sea.
Q2. Do you think China is speeding up their exercises in the region in comparison to
previous years? And if yes, what are their purposes?
ANSWER: The number and scope of China’s naval exercises are unprecedented in
scope. For example, from 24-29 September China simultaneously conducted military
exercises in four separate locations – the South China Sea, East China Sea, Yellow Sea
and Bohai Gulf. China’s military exercises are aimed at four audiences – the United
States, Taiwan, Southeast Asia and domestically.
China wants to demonstrate that not only is it capable of defending itself against
multiple attacks but it can seriously threaten U.S. naval forces within the first island
chain stretching from northern Japan to the Philippines. At the same time, China wants
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to counter the image of an ‘all powerful’ U.S. Navy and show case its modern ships
such as the Shandong aircraft carrier, and anti-ship missiles.
Q3. Last week,China launched two ballistyic missiles over the South China Sea. Is this
launching a rare activity in military exercises by Beijing? Why did China do it?
ANSWER: China fired at least two ballistic missiles from separate locations into the
waters between Hainan Island and the Paracels. The DF-21D anti-ship missile was fired
from Zhejiang Province in southeast China. It has range of 1,800 km. The DF-26B was
fired from Qinghai Province in China’s northwest.
China’s actions were rare and reportedly made in response to the flight of a U.S. U-2
high-altitude reconnaissance aircraft that flew over an area where China was carrying
out live-firing exercises. The DF-26B is nuclear capable and has range of 4,000 km.
China was demonstrating the capacity to sink a U.S. aircraft carrier and to strike U.S.
military bases on Guam.
Q4. How will the situation in the South China Sea change after these developments?
Will China continue to be aggressive? How will the U.S. react? The U.S. is more
assertive in the South China Sea; but will this last longer or just until the November
election?
ANSWER: China’s main concern is Taiwan. This year the United States agreed to sell
new F-16 jet aircraft to Taiwan armed with Harpoon anti-ship missiles. The U.S. also
sent a Cabinet member to visit Taiwan, Health Secretary Alex Azar, the highest-ranking
U.S. government official in forty years. And the U.S. Navy has repeatedly sailed
through the Taiwan Strait. During Azar’s visit China conducted naval exercises near
Taiwan and Chinese jet fighters briefly crossed the mid-line in the Taiwan Strait.
U.S. policy regarding the South China Sea has shifted dramatically after Secretary of
State Mike Pompeo’s call for the formation of an anti-China coalition to oppose
Beijing’s bullying and intimidation of South China Sea claimant states. In April, when a
China Coast Guard ship harassed oil exploration by Petronas, Malaysia’s state-owned
oil company, and a Chinese ship conducted a survey in Malaysia’s Exclusive Economic
Zone, the U.S. Navy dispatched two warships to monitor the situation.
Irrespective who wins the presidential election in November, it is very likely that China
and the United States will ramp up their action-reaction exercises in the South China
Sea. At the annual Australia-United States ministerial meeting this year, both sides
agreed to set up joint working group to plan an increase in combined naval activities
in the South China Sea that will include third parties such as Japan, and possibly France
the United Kingdom, both of whom plan to send an aircraft carrier through the South
China Sea.
Q5. What do you think about ASEAN's situation? Does ASEAN face difficulties when
the region now is a "battle ground" between the U.S. and China?
ANSWER: ASEAN has already staked out its position by releasing the ASEAN Foreign
Ministers' Statement on the Importance of Maintaining Peace and Stability in
Southeast Asia on 8 August. This statement was designed to send a message to both
Beijing and Washington that ASEAN Centrality and ASEAN-led mechanisms are the
basis for constructive engagement. In other words, ASEAN and its members will not
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join a U.S.-led anti-China grouping and neither will they join China and exclude the
United States from regional affairs.
ASEAN ministers will reiterate this position when they hold a series of virtual
ministerial meetings this week.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Evaluating China’s Recent Military Exercises,”

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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.