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Reliability Prediction Tool

Date: 03-Jun-16
Time: 15:42

Page 1 of 3 Reliability Growth Prediction_V3.4.xlsm


Reliability Prediction Tool
Date: 03-Jun-16
Time: 15:42

MDBF
Cumulated Probability
Mont Trains Cumulativ Distance Per instantaneou Improved
h et e Trainset Month
distance β λ s n of D
MDBF
(km/mile) Acceptance
(km/mile)
-2 0 0 -
-1 0 0 -
0 0 0 -
1 1 1 13,250 15,250 1.1119 2.00E-05 15,332 0 53.35% 0 15,333
2 1 2 25,750 41,000 1.2000 8.34E-06 13,112 2 60.74% 0 13,362
3 2 4 51,500 92,500 0.8435 7.52E-04 8,613 7 9.72% 2 8,746
4 1 5 63,250 155,750 0.8692 4.30E-04 11,349 6 66.00% 0 11,349
5 1 6 75,750 231,500 1.1700 1.44E-05 8,781 9 81.51% 5 9,169
6 1 7 88,250 319,750 0.8572 2.78E-04 21,334 4 99.96% 0 20,000
7 1 8 100,750 420,500 0.2960 1.37E-01 82,008 1 100.00% 0 20,000
8 2 10 126,500 547,000 3.4000 1.04E-17 16,039 16 99.25% 0 16,277
9 2 12 151,500 698,500 0.5150 3.77E-02 16,756 8 100.00% 0 16,883
10 1 13 163,250 861,750 1.0360 3.42E-05 18,299 9 100.00% 0 18,299
11 1 14 175,750 1,037,500 0.7993 4.60E-04 30,685 7 100.00% 0 20,000
12 2 16 201,500 1,239,000 0.7557 6.17E-04 42,367 6 100.00% 0 20,000
13 2 18 226,500 1,465,500 1.0006 1.49E-05 66,468 3 100.00% 0 20,000
14 2 20 251,500 1,717,000 0.9420 2.68E-05 81,480 3 100.00% 0 20,000
15 2 22 276,500 1,993,500 0.6640 2.48E-03 40,898 10 100.00% 0 20,000
16 2 24 301,500 2,295,000 0.4570 3.26E-02 63,447 4 100.00% 0 20,000
17 2 26 326,500 2,621,500 1.2610 4.88E-07 59,073 6 100.00% 0 20,000
18 2 28 351,500 2,973,000 0.6723 1.32E-03 74,234 7 100.00% 0 20,000
19 2 30 376,500 3,349,500 1.2920 1.42E-07 128,701 2 100.00% 0 20,000
20 2 32 401,500 3,751,000 0.9079 4.22E-05 85,591 5 100.00% 0 20,000
21 0 32 400,000 4,151,000 1.1990 6.53E-07 98,044 3 100.00% 0 20,000
22 0 32 400,000 4,551,000 1.8000 2.61E-10 70,348 8 100.00% 0 20,000
23 0 32 400,000 4,951,000 0.8406 6.71E-05 138,477 3 100.00% 0 20,000
24 0 32 400,000 5,351,000 0.7500 1.87E-04 179,391 2 100.00% 0 20,000
25 0 32 400,000 5,751,000 1.8990 4.32E-11 112,226 5 100.00% 0 20,000
26 0 32 400,000 6,151,000 1.4929 5.07E-09 229,077 1 100.00% 0 20,000
27 0 32 400,000 6,551,000 2.8000 2.07E-16 142,131 6 100.00% 0 20,000
28 0 32 400,000 6,951,000 1.1806 3.10E-07 266,241 1 100.00% 0 20,000
29 0 32 400,000 7,351,000 0.8160 6.14E-05 214,389 2 100.00% 0 20,000
30 0 32 400,000 7,751,000 0.5000 3.35E-03 377,124 1 100.00% 0 20,000
31 0 32 400,000 8,151,000 1.0261 3.88E-06 179,247 2 100.00% 0 20,000
32 0 32 400,000 8,551,000 1.5000 8.39E-09 125,708 4 100.00% 0 20,000
33 0 32 400,000 8,951,000 0.3260 5.95E-02 307,615 1 100.00% 0 20,000
34 0 32 400,000 9,351,000 0.9505 1.03E-05 192,612 2 100.00% 0 20,000
35 0 32 400,000 9,751,000 1.3507 3.76E-08 213,641 1 100.00% 0 20,000
36 0 32 400,000 10,151,000 1.9000 2.43E-11 196,428 3 100.00% 0 20,000
37 0 32 400,000 10,551,000 1.2410 3.31E-07 108,835 4 100.00% 0 20,000
38 0 32 400,000 10,951,000 0.8111 9.44E-05 149,357 3 100.00% 0 20,000
39 0 32 400,000 11,351,000 0.7500 1.87E-04 179,391 2 100.00% 0 20,000
40 0 32 400,000 11,751,000 0.7585 1.79E-04 166,425 3 100.00% 0 20,000
41 0 32 400,000 12,151,000 0.6126 9.05E-04 267,028 2 100.00% 0 20,000
42 0 32 400,000 12,551,000 0.9000 1.95E-05 207,341 2 100.00% 0 20,000
43 0 32 400,000 12,951,000 2.6467 2.28E-16 989,049 0 100.00% 0 20,000
44 0 32 400,000 13,351,000 1.1801 5.21E-07 159,407 2 100.00% 0 20,000
45 0 32 400,000 13,751,000 0.8353 6.75E-05 148,473 3 100.00% 0 20,000
46 0 32 400,000 14,151,000 1.1531 7.38E-07 162,986 2 100.00% 0 20,000
47 0 32 400,000 14,551,000 1.5000 8.39E-09 125,708 4 100.00% 0 20,000
48 0 32 400,000 14,951,000 0.8990 3.45E-05 118,530 3 100.00% 0 20,000
49 0 32 400,000 15,351,000 0.7500 1.87E-04 179,391 2 100.00% 0 20,000
50 0 32 400,000 15,751,000 0.9750 8.41E-06 168,334 2 100.00% 0 20,000
51 0 32 400,000 16,151,000 0.9000 1.95E-05 207,341 2 100.00% 0 20,000
52 0 32 400,000 16,551,000 1.2410 1.38E-07 261,381 1 100.00% 0 20,000
53 0 32 400,000 16,951,000 1.2990 5.64E-08 288,665 1 100.00% 0 20,000
54 0 32 400,000 17,351,000 1.9000 2.43E-11 196,428 3 100.00% 0 20,000
55 0 32 400,000 17,751,000 1.2410 3.31E-07 108,835 4 100.00% 0 20,000
56 0 32 400,000 18,151,000 0.9510 1.22E-05 161,867 2 100.00% 0 20,000
57 0 32 400,000 18,551,000 0.8710 4.21E-05 144,083 3 100.00% 0 20,000

Page 2 of 3 Reliability Growth Prediction_V3.4.xlsm


Reliability Prediction Tool
Date: 03-Jun-16
Time: 15:42

58 0 32 400,000 18,951,000 1.0480 2.80E-06 183,749 2 100.00% 0 20,000

Page 3 of 3 Reliability Growth Prediction_V3.4.xlsm