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Source: Networth Research, Bloomberg
Outlook
The US is the world's largest energy user and its economic data has a big impact on oil prices.
Monthly Update 2
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
India’s gross domestic product in the September FY10 quarter increased by 7.9% versus the
expected 6.3% growth. This fastest growth recorded in the last 18 months will add pressure to bring
forward an interest rate hike and cut stimulus spending as inflation mounts. The growth in GDP was
driven by government spending, manufacturing, services, and a better than forecast farming output.
Manufacturing output grew 9.2% in the quarter as consumers bought more cars and other goods.
Exhibit 3: GDP growth (%)
Source: Networth Research, Bloomberg
Outlook
RBI believes that agriculture production will be flat year on year rather than negative. On this basis, it has
hiked its expectation of GDP growth in FY10 to 7.5% yoy. The previous estimate was 6% with an upside
bias.
While The consensus is that India's GDP will grow by 7% for full year FY10, we estimate GDP growth at
6.7% in FY10.
Monthly Update 3
Wholesale Price Index (WPI)
The wholesale‐price index is the benchmark inflation index in India as other inflation measures don’t
capture the aggregate price picture.
The wholesale‐price inflation rate was 7.31% in December 2009, the highest in 13 months. Food costs
rose as weak monsoons have hurt agricultural output.
Within Primary Articles, the Non Food Articles group jumped 3.9% while Food Articles group rose 0.5% in
the month. Fuel, Power, Light And Lubricants group contributed 0.1% to WPI.
Exhibit 4: WPI
Source: Networth Research, Bloomberg
Outlook
RBI expects inflation to climb further and has revised its FY10 WPI forecast to 8.5% (with a confidence
interval of around 1% on either side). This is a 200bps upward revision from its previous estimate.
Food prices are likely to soften by February 2010, according to the deputy chairman of Planning
Commission, Montek Singh Ahluwalia.
Monthly Update 4
Rupee
At the Interbank Foreign Exchange (Forex) market, the rupee lost 8 paise to 46.05 a dollar on
February 4.
Exhibit 5: Movement of rupee/US$
Source: Networth Research, Bloomberg
Outlook
A weakness in stock markets and a strengthening dollar overseas would weigh on sentiment.
Monthly Update 5
December 2009 imports and exports
Exports grew 9.3% and imports 27.2% in December 2009 suggesting that India's trade is coming out
of economic blues.
Exhibit 6: December imports & exports
(USD mn) Export‐import
40000 Exports
35000
Imports
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
3/1/07
6/1/07
9/1/07
3/1/08
6/1/08
9/1/08
3/1/09
6/1/09
9/1/09
12/1/06
12/1/07
12/1/08
Source: Networth Research, Bloomberg
Outlook
Growth in imports is an indicator of domestic industrial activity and the current upsurge in imports is
heartening.
Even though exports have improved, it is important to examine its sustainability in the months
ahead – given the state of the global economy and teething troubles in making forays into new and
unconventional markets in other continents.
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
India received USD1.5bn in FDI in December 2009, an increase of over 10% yoy. FDI was US$1.36bn
in December 2008. This is the third consecutive month that FDI inflows have posted a healthy year‐
on‐year jump. The overseas inflows declined marginally to US$20.9bn in April‐December compared
to US$21.15bn in the year ago period.
Outlook
In a move to push FDI inflows further, the Commerce and Industry Ministry has released a draft
document that consolidates FDI policy into a single regulatory framework. The move is aimed at
providing greater clarity on existing rules to foreign investors. It will not change the current FDI
norms or sector specific caps.
Monthly Update 6
Index Of Industrial Production (IIP)
The November 2009 Index of Industrial Production (IIP) at 11.7% saw the highest contribution of 37.3%
from consumer durables. The robust growth was aided by consumer demand and stimulus measures.
Manufacturing has almost 80% weight in IIP and grew by 12.7% in November 2009. The exceptions to
all‐round robust growth were electricity which grew just 3.3% year‐on‐year and consumer non‐durables
which grew 3.1% year‐on‐year.
The consumer goods component grew 11.1% – with consumer durables growing 37.3% and consumer
non durables growing 3.1%. Others like basic goods grew 6%, capital goods 12.2% and intermediate
goods grew 19.4%.
Exhibit 7: IIP growth (general index)
Source: Networth Research, Bloomberg
Outlook
While IIP growth consensus is around 9‐12% in FY10 with support from a low base, we estimate an
IIP growth of 8% in FY10.
Monthly Update 7
Gold
In the global market, gold traded near a three‐month low after plunging on February 4 as the dollar’s
rally reduced appeal of the metal as an alternative investment. Prices pared as the dollar rallied to
its highest in more than eight months against the euro – amid concern that widening deficits will
hamper Europe’s economic recovery.
India's gold buying continued in January 2010 as a stronger rupee made the dollar‐quoted yellow
metal cheaper for domestic traders.
Exhibit 8: Gold prices
Source: Networth Research, Bloomberg
Outlook
India imported 35‐40 tonnes of gold during 1‐27 January, up from 9.8 tonnes last month. Gold
imports also depend on rupee movement as a weaker rupee makes the dollar‐quoted yellow metal
expensive.
Monthly Update 8
Politics and Policy
Air India expects to get an allocation of Rs1,200crore in the forthcoming budget, civil aviation
minister Praful Patel said. Patel said he expected the process of equity infusion of Rs800crore into
the airline by the government to be completed over the next eight to ten days. Further assistance
would only be given on achievement of specific revenue enhancement and cost reduction targets by
the airline.
Under the Radar
A panel headed by Kirit Parikh submitted its report on deregulation of fuel prices to the government.
Parikh has recommended freeing of oil prices as petrol and diesel prices in the near future – as price
hikes on final products will be very low in the current price scenario. The Parikh Committee is India's
third such panel set up to fix anomalies in the fuel pricing system.
The World at Large: An Update
The US president Barack Obama presented a US$3.83trn budget this week – pushing its deficit to a
record US$1.56trn. This deficit is expected to shrink to US$1.27trn in 2011 with Obama proposing a
three‐year spending freeze on a variety of programmes with the exception of military and homeland
security.
Events, Other Economic Data in January 2010
Date Event
2/8/2010 FY10 annual GDP constant
2/11/2010 Primary articles WPI yoy
2/11/2010 Fuel, power, light WPI yoy
2/15/2010 January 2010 WPI
2/18/2010 Primary articles WPI yoy
2/18/2010 Fuel, power, light WPI yoy
2/25/2010 Primary articles WPI yoy
2/25/2010 Fuel, power, light WPI yoy
Source: Networth, Bloomberg
Monthly Update 9
Networth Research: E‐mail‐ research@networthdirect.com
Satish Pasari Head‐ Institutional Business satish.pasari@networthdirect.com 022‐22823225/22840219
Equity Research
Anand Dama Banking & Financial Services anand.dama@networthdirect.com 022‐30286391
Sanjeev Hota IT / Education sanjeev.hota@networthdirect.com 022‐30286407
Ashwani Sharma Power / Capital Goods ashwani.sharma@networthdirect.com 022‐30286389
Kanika Bihany Dugar Engineering / Capital Goods kanika.bihany@networthdirect.com 022‐39517618
Gaurav Soni Cement gaurav.soni@networthdirect.com 022‐39517618
Chintan Mehta Metals/Mining chintan.mehta@networthdirect.com 022‐30281580
Rupali Nambiar Economy rupali.nambiar@networthdirect.com 022‐39517620
Derivatives & Technical Research
Akshata Deshmukh Sr. Technical & Derivatives Analyst akshata.deshmukh@networthdirect.com 022‐39517632
Manoj Karnani Sr. Manager – Derivatives manoj.karnani@networthdirect.com 022‐22840219
Amol Shrivastava Derivatives Analyst amol.shrivastava@networthdirect.com 022‐39517638
Ankit Bhat Research Associate ankit.bhat@networthdirect.com 022‐39517638
Quantitative Research
Shubha Aggarwal Research Analyst shubha.aggarwal@networthdirect.com 022‐30281580
Ritesh Jain Research Analyst ritesh.jain@networthdirect.com 022‐30281580
Sales dealing@networthdirect.com
Prakash Diwan Head‐Institutional Sales & Strategy prakash.diwan@networthdirect.com 022‐30286403/30286389
Nilesh Sangani AVP – Institutional Sales and Dealing nilesh.sangani@networthdirect.com 022‐39517635
Ronak Maniar Sr. Manager ‐ Institutional Sales & Dealing ronak.maniar@networthdirect.com 022‐39517635
Shalaka Jadhav Sr. Manager ‐ Institutional Sales & Dealing shalaka.jadhav@networthdirect.com 022‐39517636/22840217
Key to NETWORTH Investment Rankings
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Monthly Update 10