The Good News About US Broadband

Broadband Policy Summit IV

June 12, 2008

Scott Wallsten
scott@wallsten.net

www.techpolicyinstitute.org
www.wallsten.net
 Total Counted High-Speed Connections in the U.S.

35

30

25
cable
20
millions

15
dsl
10
mobile
5

fiber
satellite & fixed

Source: FCC (2008)

Scott Wallsten
 Household Broadband Penetration as of Nov 2006
(November 2006 unless otherwise stated)
90

80

70
percent households with broadband

60

50 October 2007
March 2007

40

30

20

10

0
Korea*

United States (March)

Ireland

Greece
Netherlands

Canada*

Denmark

Japan (September)

Finland

Belgium

Sweden

United Kingdom
Estonia

France

Luxembourg

Slovenia

Spain

Austria

Poland

Latvia

Lithuania

Portugal

Czech Republic

Bulgaria

Romania

Slovak Republic

Cyprus
Italy

Turkey
Hungary
Germany

Sources: European Community (2007); US Census (2007), Pew Internet & American Life Foundation (2006); Korean National Information
Society Agency (2007); Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (2007). See footnote 8 in Wallsten (2008). Scott Wallsten
OECD (and FCC) can’t count business connections

Scott Wallsten
 U.S. Wired High-Speed Lines as counted by the FCC
70

60
Total

50

Residential

40
millions

30

20

10
Business (implied)

0
Jun-00 Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07
Scott Wallsten
77 million U.S. workers have broadband at work

OECD/FCC miss about 72 million connections

U.S. Census: 81 million people have Internet at work

Nielsen: 95% of workers with Internet access have broadband
Scott Wallsten
 66 million connections (OECD)
72 million workplace

138 million U.S. wired broadband connections

Scott Wallsten
 U.S. Wired High-Speed
U.S. Wired High-Speed
Lines as counted
Lines by the FCC
140 70

120 60

100 50

80 40
millions
millions

60 30

40 20

20 10

0 0
Jun-00 Dec-00
Jun-00 Jun-01
Dec-00 Dec-01
Jun-01 Jun-02
Dec-01 Dec-02
Jun-02 Jun-03
Dec-02 Dec-03
Jun-03 Jun-04
Dec-03 Dec-04
Jun-04 Jun-05
Dec-04 Dec-05
Jun-05 Jun-06
Dec-05 Dec-06
Jun-06 Jun-07
Dec-06 Jun-07
Scott Wallsten
Why is the U.S. OECD rank falling?

Scott Wallsten
Household size.
Countries with larger households will have fewer connections per capita.

Scott Wallsten
Hermitopia Grüphaus Republic
population: 20 population: 20
2001

2001 penetration rates

household: 5% household: 25%
per capita: 5% per capita: 5%

Scott Wallsten
Hermitopia Grüphaus Republic
population: 20 population: 20
2007

2001 penetration rates

household: 5% household: 25%
per capita: 5% per capita: 5%
2007 penetration rates
household: 50% household: 100%
per capita: 50% per capita: 20%

Scott Wallsten
 Effect of Household Size on Broadband Per Cap Rank
year
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
1 Korea

2 Sweden

3
Canada

4 Denmark

5 Belgium

6 Netherlands

7
rank

9 Austria

10

11 United States

12 Iceland

13

14
Japan
Scott Wallsten
 Speeds
consider actual, not advertised

Scott Wallsten
 Average Tested Download Speeds
2007 - 2008
15

12

9
Mbps

Source: Speedtest.net.
Scott Wallsten
 U.S. Broadband Speeds
70 6.0

60
5.0

50
4.0
millions of connections

40

Mbps
3.0

30

2.0
20

1.0
10

0 0.0
Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07

>=200Kbps in only one direction 200Kbps - 2.5 Mbps 2.5-10Mbps

10-25 Mbps 25-100 Mbps >100 Mbps
Weighted average speed (right axis)

Source: FCC (2008).

Scott Wallsten
 Share of U.S. Households with Broadband, October 2007
90

80

70

60

50
percent

40

30

20

10

All U.S. Urban Rural

Source: U.S. Census (2007).

Scott Wallsten
 A National Broadband Policy

•! Require cost-benefit analysis of any proposal.

•! Focus on removing potential entry barriers.

•! Make more spectrum available.

•! Study existing programs.

•! U.S. Census should continue to gather annual data.

•! Gather better data on business broadband.

Scott Wallsten
Conclusion

Relax. We’re fine.

Scott Wallsten