EP Ingeniería Mecánica de Fluidos

HIDROLOGÍA ESTADÍSTICA

DISTRIBUCIÓN DE PROBABILIDADES
CURVAS REPRESENTATIVAS
FUNCIÓN DISTRIBUCIÓN𝐹(𝑥)=1/(√2𝜋 𝑆) 𝑥:𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡
𝑥 ̅:𝑝𝑎𝑟á𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑟𝑜 𝑑𝑒 𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑧
∫_(−∞)^𝑥▒𝑒^(−1/2
𝑆:𝑝𝑎𝑟á𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑟𝑜 𝑑𝑒 𝑒𝑠𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑎, 𝑑
((𝑥−𝑥 ̅)/𝑆)^2 𝑑𝑥)
Cambio de variable
𝐹(𝑧)=1/(√2𝜋 𝑆)
𝑧:𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑎 𝑒𝑠𝑡á𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟c
𝑧=(𝑥−𝑥 ̅)/𝑆 ∫_(−∞)^𝑧▒𝑒^(−𝑧^2/2 𝑑𝑧)

Ecuación aproximada: MASTING

𝐹(𝑧)=1−𝑓(𝑧)(𝑐_1 𝑡_𝑠+𝑐_2 𝑡_𝑠^2+𝑐_3 𝑡_𝑠^3+𝑐_4

𝐿𝑎 𝑎𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑎
𝑡_𝑠^4+𝑐_5 𝑡_𝑠^5) 〖 7.5𝑥10 〗
𝑐_1= 0.31938153 𝑐_2= -0.35656378 𝑐_3= 1.78147794 𝑐_4=

Descargas Medias Mensuales

Año
E F M A M J
1990 49.24 117.92 285.95 648.8 96.21 17.93
1991 157.54 184.95 143.45 119.95 161.45 72.83
1992 227.72 329.52 460.58 449.39 65.82 27.88
1993 48.04 176.52 722.25 591.16 307.08 98.1
1994 293.56 785.16 829.41 673.48 266.67 174.19
1995 109.1 269.41 337.67 169.09 161.95 72.43
1996 97.11 329.53 767.63 496.44 221.88 122.19
1997 99.84 625.51 825.39 558.24 275.71 131.01
1998 79.88 302.55 276.5 322.33 146.53 64.92
1999 22.9 32.94 103.95 169.67 86.73 41
2000 37.08 115.66 278.47 172.07 81.69 58.7
2001 22.35 177.91 111.99 233.03 133.17 85.22
2002 68.25 223.85 440.44 239.85 134.33 76.14
Media 100.97 282.42 429.51 372.58 164.56 80.2
Máxima 293.56 785.16 829.41 673.48 307.08 174.19
Mínima 22.35 32.94 103.95 119.95 65.82 17.93
 1 2 3 4 5 6
648.8 285.95 117.92 96.21 49.24 22.5
184.95 161.45 157.54 143.45 119.95 72.83
460.58 449.39 329.52 227.72 65.82 38.21
722.25 591.16 307.08 176.52 98.15 98.1
829.41 785.16 673.48 293.56 266.67 174.19
337.67 269.41 169.09 161.95 109.1 72.43
767.63 496.44 329.53 221.88 122.19 97.11
825.39 625.51 558.24 275.71 131.01 99.84
322.33 302.55 276.5 146.53 79.88 64.92
169.67 103.95 86.73 41 32.94 25.48
278.47 172.07 115.66 81.69 58.7 39.52
233.03 177.91 133.17 111.99 85.22 51.12
440.44 239.85 223.85 134.33 76.14 68.25
Promedio 478.5092308 358.5230769 267.5623077 162.5030769 99.61615385 71.11538462
Qm 134.1159615 134.1159615 134.1159615 134.1159615 134.1159615 134.1159615
1.1Qm 147.5275577 147.5275577 147.5275577 147.5275577 147.5275577 147.5275577
0.6Qm 80.46957692 80.46957692 80.46957692 80.46957692 80.46957692 80.46957692
% 0.0833 16.6667 25.0000 33.3333 41.6667 50.0000

Jan-90 49.24 127.630 127.630 134.1159615

Feb-90 117.92 305.649 433.279 134.1159615
900
Mar-90 285.95 741.182 1174.461 134.1159615
Apr-90 648.8 1681.690 2856.151 134.1159615
May-90 96.21 249.376 3105.527 134.1159615 800
Jun-90 17.93 46.475 3152.002 134.1159615
Jul-90 10.87 28.175 3180.177 134.1159615
Aug-90 9.41 24.391 3204.567 134.1159615 700
Sep-90 17.14 44.427 3248.994 134.1159615
Oct-90 15.2 39.398 3288.393 134.1159615
600
Nov-90 17.53 45.438 3333.830 134.1159615
Dec-90 22.5 58.320 3392.150 134.1159615
Jan-91 157.54 408.344 3800.494 134.1159615 500
Feb-91 184.95 479.390 4279.884 134.1159615
Q(m3/s),

Mar-91 143.45 371.822 4651.707 134.1159615

119.95 400
Apr-91 310.910 4962.617 134.1159615
May-91 161.45 418.478 5381.096 134.1159615
Jun-91 72.83 188.775 5569.871 134.1159615 300
Jul-91 45.29 117.392 5687.263 134.1159615
Aug-91 31.38 81.337 5768.600 134.1159615
Sep-91 25.95 67.262 5835.862 134.1159615 200
Oct-91 22.47 58.242 5894.104 134.1159615
Nov-91 33.01 85.562 5979.666 134.1159615
100

0
l-89
 200

100
Dec-91 29.92 77.553 6057.219 134.1159615
Jan-92 227.72 590.250 6647.469 134.1159615
Feb-92 329.52 854.116 7501.585 134.1159615 0

Jul-89
Mar-92 460.58 1193.823 8695.408 134.1159615
Apr-92 449.39 1164.819 9860.227 134.1159615
May-92 65.82 170.605 10030.833 134.1159615
Jun-92 27.88 72.265 10103.098 134.1159615
Jul-92 24.18 62.675 10165.772 134.1159615
Aug-92 15.69 40.668 10206.441 134.1159615
Sep-92 13.94 36.132 10242.573 134.1159615
Oct-92 14.79 38.336 10280.909 134.1159615
Nov-92 19.75 51.192 10332.101 134.1159615 500
Dec-92 38.21 99.040 10431.141 134.1159615
Jan-93 48.04 124.520 10555.661 134.1159615
450
Feb-93 176.52 457.540 11013.201 134.1159615
Mar-93 722.25 1872.072 12885.273 134.1159615
Apr-93 591.16 1532.287 14417.559 134.1159615 400
May-93 307.08 795.951 15213.511 134.1159615
Jun-93 98.1 254.275 15467.786 134.1159615
98.15 350
Jul-93 254.405 15722.191 134.1159615
Aug-93 45.9 118.973 15841.164 134.1159615
Sep-93 21.52 55.780 15896.943 134.1159615 300
Oct-93 20.06 51.996 15948.939 134.1159615
Nov-93 18.41 47.719 15996.658 134.1159615

Q(m3/s)
Dec-93 42.68 110.627 16107.284 134.1159615 250

Jan-94 293.56 760.908 16868.192 134.1159615

Feb-94 785.16 2035.135 18903.326 134.1159615 200
Mar-94 829.41 2149.831 21053.157 134.1159615
Apr-94 673.48 1745.660 22798.817 134.1159615
May-94 266.67 691.209 23490.026 134.1159615 150
Jun-94 174.19 451.500 23941.526 134.1159615
Jul-94 122.18 316.691 24258.217 134.1159615 100
Aug-94 84.69 219.516 24477.733 134.1159615
Sep-94 68.15 176.645 24654.378 134.1159615
Oct-94 42.05 108.994 24763.372 134.1159615 50
Nov-94 19.67 50.985 24814.356 134.1159615
Dec-94 31.09 80.585 24894.942 134.1159615
0
Jan-95 109.1 282.787 25177.729 134.1159615 0
Feb-95 269.41 698.311 25876.040 134.1159615
Mar-95 337.67 875.241 26751.280 134.1159615
Apr-95 169.09 438.281 27189.562 134.1159615
May-95 161.95 419.774 27609.336 134.1159615
Jun-95 72.43 187.739 27797.075 134.1159615
Jul-95 42.55 110.290 27907.364 134.1159615
Aug-95 28.79 74.624 27981.988 134.1159615
Sep-95 13.17 34.137 28016.124 134.1159615
Oct-95 13.65 35.381 28051.505 134.1159615
Nov-95 15.17 39.321 28090.826 134.1159615
Dec-95 48.49 125.686 28216.512 134.1159615
Jan-96 97.11 251.709 28468.221 134.1159615
Feb-96 329.53 854.142 29322.363 134.1159615
Mar-96 767.63 1989.697 31312.060 134.1159615
Apr-96 496.44 1286.772 32598.832 134.1159615
May-96 221.88 575.113 33173.945 134.1159615
Jun-96 122.19 316.716 33490.662 134.1159615
Jul-96 88.39 229.107 33719.769 134.1159615
Aug-96 63.27 163.996 33883.764 134.1159615
Sep-96 41.3 107.050 33990.814 134.1159615
Oct-96 41.32 107.101 34097.916 134.1159615
Nov-96 23.51 60.938 34158.853 134.1159615
Dec-96 22.6 58.579 34217.433 134.1159615
Jan-97 99.84 258.785 34476.218 134.1159615
Feb-97 625.51 1621.322 36097.540 134.1159615
Mar-97 825.39 2139.411 38236.951 134.1159615
Apr-97 558.24 1446.958 39683.909 134.1159615
May-97 275.71 714.640 40398.549 134.1159615
Jun-97 131.01 339.578 40738.127 134.1159615
Jul-97 80.97 209.874 40948.001 134.1159615
Aug-97 52.63 136.417 41084.418 134.1159615
Sep-97 38.66 100.207 41184.625 134.1159615
Oct-97 20.21 52.384 41237.009 134.1159615
Nov-97 15.28 39.606 41276.615 134.1159615
Dec-97 20.02 51.892 41328.507 134.1159615
Jan-98 79.88 207.049 41535.556 134.1159615
Feb-98 302.55 784.210 42319.765 134.1159615
Mar-98 276.5 716.688 43036.453 134.1159615
Apr-98 322.33 835.479 43871.933 134.1159615
May-98 146.53 379.806 44251.739 134.1159615
Jun-98 64.92 168.273 44420.011 134.1159615
Jul-98 39.48 102.332 44522.343 134.1159615
Aug-98 22.37 57.983 44580.326 134.1159615
Sep-98 16.04 41.576 44621.902 134.1159615
Oct-98 12.87 33.359 44655.261 134.1159615
Nov-98 9.58 24.831 44680.092 134.1159615
Dec-98 12.09 31.337 44711.430 134.1159615
Jan-99 22.9 59.357 44770.787 134.1159615
Feb-99 32.94 85.380 44856.167 134.1159615
Mar-99 103.95 269.438 45125.605 134.1159615
Apr-99 169.67 439.785 45565.390 134.1159615
May-99 86.73 224.804 45790.194 134.1159615
Jun-99 41 106.272 45896.466 134.1159615
Jul-99 25.48 66.044 45962.510 134.1159615
Aug-99 14.32 37.117 45999.628 134.1159615
Sep-99 9.97 25.842 46025.470 134.1159615
Oct-99 11.56 29.964 46055.434 134.1159615
Nov-99 9.42 24.417 46079.850 134.1159615
Dec-99 13.17 34.137 46113.987 134.1159615
Jan-00 37.08 96.111 46210.098 134.1159615
Feb-00 115.66 299.791 46509.889 134.1159615
Mar-00 278.47 721.794 47231.683 134.1159615
Apr-00 172.07 446.005 47677.689 134.1159615
May-00 81.69 211.740 47889.429 134.1159615
Jun-00 58.7 152.150 48041.580 134.1159615
Jul-00 39.52 102.436 48144.015 134.1159615
Aug-00 26.76 69.362 48213.377 134.1159615
Sep-00 20.39 52.851 48266.228 134.1159615
Oct-00 16.26 42.146 48308.374 134.1159615
Nov-00 13.72 35.562 48343.936 134.1159615
Dec-00 12.09 31.337 48375.274 134.1159615
Jan-01 22.35 57.931 48433.205 134.1159615
Feb-01 177.91 461.143 48894.348 134.1159615
Mar-01 111.99 290.278 49184.626 134.1159615
Apr-01 233.03 604.014 49788.639 134.1159615
May-01 133.17 345.177 50133.816 134.1159615
Jun-01 85.22 220.890 50354.706 134.1159615
Jul-01 51.12 132.503 50487.209 134.1159615
Aug-01 31.63 81.985 50569.194 134.1159615
Sep-01 23.91 61.975 50631.169 134.1159615
Oct-01 16.21 42.016 50673.185 134.1159615
Nov-01 11.82 30.637 50703.823 134.1159615
Dec-01 40.4 104.717 50808.540 134.1159615
Jan-02 68.25 176.904 50985.444 134.1159615
Feb-02 223.85 580.219 51565.663 134.1159615
Mar-02 440.44 1141.620 52707.283 134.1159615
Apr-02 239.85 621.691 53328.974 134.1159615
May-02 134.33 348.183 53677.158 134.1159615
Jun-02 76.14 197.355 53874.513 134.1159615
Jul-02 47.79 123.872 53998.384 134.1159615
Aug-02 30.74 79.678 54078.062 134.1159615
Sep-02 21.21 54.976 54133.039 134.1159615
Oct-02 14.33 37.143 54170.182 134.1159615
Nov-02 10.56 27.372 54197.554 134.1159615
Dec-02 12.54 32.504 54230.057 134.1159615
BABILIDADES
TATIVAS
𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒
 ̅:𝑝𝑎𝑟á𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑟𝑜 𝑑𝑒 𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑧𝑎𝑐𝑖ó𝑛,𝑚𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑎 𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑡𝑚é𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑎 𝑑𝑒 𝑥
𝑝𝑎𝑟á𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑟𝑜 𝑑𝑒 𝑒𝑠𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑎, 𝑑𝑒𝑠𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑐𝑖ó𝑛 𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑝𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟 𝑑𝑒 𝑥

−𝑧^2/2 𝑑𝑧)

𝑡_𝑠=1/(1+0.23164191|
𝑧| )
𝐿𝑎 𝑎𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑐𝑖ó𝑛𝑒𝑠 𝑒𝑠 𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑠 𝑎
〖 7.5𝑥10 〗 ^(−8)
𝑐_4= -1.8212560 𝑐_5= 1.33027443

rgas Medias Mensuales m3/s

J A S O N D
10.87 9.41 17.14 15.2 17.53 22.5
45.29 31.38 25.95 22.47 33.01 29.92
24.18 15.69 13.94 14.79 19.75 38.21
98.15 45.9 21.52 20.06 18.41 42.68
122.18 84.69 68.15 42.05 19.67 31.09
42.55 28.79 13.17 13.65 15.17 48.49
88.39 63.27 41.3 41.32 23.51 22.6
80.97 52.63 38.66 20.21 15.28 20.02
39.48 22.37 16.04 12.87 9.58 12.09
25.48 14.32 9.97 11.56 9.42 13.17
39.52 26.76 20.39 16.26 13.72 12.09
51.12 31.63 23.91 16.21 11.82 40.4
47.79 30.74 21.21 14.33 10.56 12.54
55.07 35.2 25.49 20.08 16.73 26.6
122.18 84.69 68.15 42.05 33.01 48.49
10.87 9.41 9.97 11.56 9.42 12.09
 7 8 9 10 11 12
17.93 17.53 17.14 15.2 10.87 9.41
45.29 33.01 31.38 29.92 25.95 22.47
27.88 24.18 19.75 15.69 14.79 13.94
48.04 45.9 42.68 21.52 20.06 18.41
122.18 84.69 68.15 42.05 31.09 19.67
48.49 42.55 28.79 15.17 13.65 13.17
88.39 63.27 41.32 41.3 23.51 22.6
80.97 52.63 38.66 20.21 20.02 15.28
39.48 22.37 16.04 12.87 12.09 9.58
22.9 14.32 13.17 11.56 9.97 9.42
37.08 26.76 20.39 16.26 13.72 12.09
40.4 31.63 23.91 22.35 16.21 11.82
47.79 30.74 21.21 14.33 12.54 10.56
51.29384615 37.66 29.43 21.41769231 17.26692308 14.49384615
134.1159615 134.1159615 134.1159615 134.1159615 134.1159615 134.1159615
147.5275577 147.5275577 147.5275577 147.5275577 147.5275577 147.5275577
80.46957692 80.46957692 80.46957692 80.46957692 80.46957692 80.46957692
58.3333 66.6667 75.0000 83.3333 91.6667 100.0000

SERIE DE TIEMPO
900

800

700

600

500
Q(m3/s),

400

300

200

100

0
v-90

g-93

n-95

y-96

p-97

b-99
l-89

r-92
 200

100

Nov-90

Jan-95

Sep-97

Feb-99
Jul-89

Apr-92

Aug-93

May-96
Tiempo

CURVA DE DURACIÓN
500

450

400

350

300
Q(m3/s)

250

200

150

100

50

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 8

Excedencia %
b-99

n-00

v-01

r-03
 70
Feb-99

80
Jun-00

90
Nov-01

100
Mar-03

Q(acumulado (m3/s)

0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000

Nov-89

Mar-90

Jun-90

Sep-90

Jan-91

Apr-91

Jul-91

Oct-91

Feb-92

May-92

Aug-92

Dec-92

Mar-93
 Feb-92

May-92

Aug-92

Dec-92

Mar-93

Jun-93

Sep-93

Jan-94

Apr-94

Jul-94

Nov-94

Feb-95

May-95

Aug-95

Dec-95

Mar-96

Jun-96

Tiempo
Oct-96

Jan-97
DIAGRAMA DE RIPPL

Apr-97

Jul-97

Nov-97

Feb-98

May-98

Sep-98

Dec-98

Mar-99

Jun-99

Oct-99

Jan-00

Apr-00

Aug-00
Jun-99

Oct-99

Jan-00

Apr-00

Aug-00

Nov-00

Feb-01

May-01

Sep-01

Dec-01

Mar-02

Jul-02

Oct-02