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ON GOLD
BY
1
DECLARATION
Date: 06/06/2010
Place: GURGAON SUPRIYA DAS GUPTA
2
ABSTRACT
Abstract: We study the gold and silver prices based on fundamental analysis like
inventories in the entire globe, central bank reserves and currency fluctuations. We
study the Inventories which will effect due to strikes, political conditions and demand
& supply mismatch. According to central Bank policies and central agreements
reserves will various. Currency trading on Dollar verses Euro or Dollar verses sterling
pound causes volatility which leads to gold/silver price fluctuations.
We forecast the gold and silver prices with advanced technical analysis tools
by using lead &lag indicators, Elliot wave analysis and Fibonacci series. We applied
lag indicators on trending markets and lead indicators for trading markets. Lag
indicators (like MACD or moving averages) smoothens the price trends so that we
can find out prices are in the trending zone or not. We can apply this method on both
bullish as well as bearish markets. Lead indicators are like oscillators for find out the
trading ranges on sideways markets. We apply Elliot wave for gold and silver prices
forecast for long term analysis. We combine the Fibonacci series with Elliot wave for
better results and absolute forecast.
3
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Finally, many thanks to all of them not mentioned who have contributed
their bit towards the study.
4
Page
Chapter No Content No
1 Introduction 7-11
2 Objectives 12-13
3 Research and Methodology 14-15
4 Review of literature 16-38
5 Company Profile 39-44
Data Analysis and
6 Interpretation 45-60
7 Findings and Suggestions 61-63
8 Conclusion 64-67
9 Bibliography 68-70
TABLE OF CONTENT
5
LIST OF TABLES
LIST OF FIGURES
6
CHAPTER - I
INTRODUCTION
7
Introduction: The high Volatility in equity market with high-
risk and the arrival of low interest rates have increased the investor
presence in alternative investments such as gold and silver. In India,
gold has traditionally played a multi-faceted role. Apart from being
used for armament purpose, it has also served as an asset of the
last resort and a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation.
But most importantly, it has most often been treated as an
investment.
8
Expectations of an increase in demand for the marriage
season in India could see emergence of physical buying
interest.
HISTORY OF GOLD
Gold has a history of more than 7000 years in India, which can be
find in religious book of Hindu, where it is considered as a metal of
immense value. But looking at the history of world, gold is found at
the Egypt at 2000 B.C., which is the first metal used by the humans
value for ornament and rituals.
Gold has long been considered one of the most precious metals, and
its value has been used as the standard for many currencies (known
as the gold standard) in history. Gold has been used as a symbol for
purity, value, royalty, and particularly roles that combine these
properties.
But above all comment; it has a special role in India and in certain
countries, gold Jewelry is worn for ornamental value on all social
functions, festivals and celebrations. It is the popular form of
investment in rural areas between the farmers after having bumper
crop or after harvesting, this all factor makes India as largest
consumer (18.7% of world total demand in 2004) and importer of
9
gold due to its low production, which is negligible, and untapped
gold reserves. This is due to lack of new technology in finding gold
reserves and low interest shown by government in financing,
encouraging for exploration programs in gold mines.
PRODUCTION OF GOLD
Till know the total gold is extracted from the mines is about $1
trillion dollar, which is accumulated in physical form is enough to
built Eiffel tower.
Australia: 258
China: 217
Canada: 129
Indonesia: 114
Ghana: 58
Guyana: 15
Source: GFMS
11
CHAPTER - 2
12
Objective: The main objective of this project is to forecast gold
and silver prices with advanced technical analysis tools by using
lead &lag indicators, Elliot wave analysis and Fibonacci series. We
applied lag indicators on trending markets and lead indicators for
trading markets. We apply Elliot wave analysis with gold and silver
prices forecast for long term .We combine the Fibonacci series with
Elliot wave for better results and absolute forecast. We also analyze
gold and silver prices based on fundamental analysis like
inventories, central bank reserves and dollar fluctuations.
LIMITATION OF STUDY
13
4. This analysis will be holding good for a limited time period that
is based on present scenario and study conducted, future
movement on gold price may or may not be similar.
CHAPTER - 3
14
RESEARCH OF THE STUDY
TYPE OF RESEARCH
Secondary Data:
15
collecting share prices of selected companies for a period of
five years.
TOOLS USED:
CHAPTER - 4
REVIEW OF LITERATURE
16
Why central banks hold gold
Monetary authorities have long held gold in their reserves. Today
their stocks amount to some 30,000 tones - similar to their holdings
60 years ago. It is sometimes suggested that maintaining such
holdings is inefficient in comparison to foreign exchange. However,
there are good reasons for countries continuing to hold gold as part
of their reserves. These are recognized by central banks themselves
although different central banks would emphasize different factors.
Diversification
Economic security
Physical security
Unexpected needs
Confidence
Income
Insurance
How much gold to hold?
Diversification
In any asset portfolio, it rarely makes sense to have all your eggs in
one basket. Obviously the price of gold can fluctuate - but so too do
the exchange and interest rates of currencies held in reserves. A
strategy of reserve diversification will normally provide a less
volatile return than one based on a single asset.
Physical Security
Unexpected needs
Confidence
Income
Insurance
This is a matter for countries and central banks to decide in the light
of their particular circumstances. The international average is about
10.2% at current market prices but, in the EU it is over 50% and the
USA holds around 75% of its reserves in gold. Countries facing
particular volatility in their economic and/or political circumstances
will want to consider the level of gold in their reserves.
Elliott had theories regarding the origin and meaning of the patterns
he discovered, which we will present and expand upon in Lessons
16-19. Until then, suffice it to say that the patterns described in
Lessons 1-15 have stood the test of time.
20
Elliot wave:
Elliott had theories regarding the origin and meaning of the patterns
he discovered, which we will present and expand upon in Lessons
16-19. Until then, suffice it to say that the patterns described in
Lessons 1-15 have stood the test of time. Often one will hear several
different interpretations of the market's Elliott Wave status,
especially when cursory, off-the-cuff studies of the averages are
made by latter day experts.
22
Under the Wave Principle, every market decision is both produced
by meaningful information and produces meaningful information.
Each transaction, while at once an effect enters the fabric of the
market and, by communicating transactional data to investors, joins
the chain of causes of others' behavior. This feedback loop is
governed by man's social nature, and since he has such a nature,
the process generates forms. As the forms are repetitive, they have
predictive value.
23
Figure 1-1
R.N. Elliott did not specifically state that there is only one overriding
form, the "five wave" pattern, but that is undeniably the case. At any
time, the market may be identified as being somewhere in the basic
five wave pattern at the largest degree of trend. Because the five
wave pattern is the overriding form of market progress, all other
patterns are subsumed by it.
Figure 1-2
25
Figure 1-3
*Note: For this course, all Primary degree numbers and letters
normally denoted by circles are shown with brackets.
Essential Concepts
27
Figure 1-4
28
2.1 Introducing Fibonacci
29
The Fibonacci (pronounced fib-eh-nah´-chee) sequence of numbers
was discovered (actually rediscovered) by Leonardo Fibonacci da
Pisa, a thirteenth century mathematician. We will outline the
historical background of this amazing man and then discuss more
fully the sequence (technically it is a sequence and not a series) of
numbers that bears his name. When Elliott wrote Nature's Law, he
referred specifically to the Fibonacci sequence as the mathematical
basis for the Wave Principle. It is sufficient to state at this point that
the stock market has a propensity to demonstrate a form that can
be aligned with the form present in the Fibonacci sequence. (For a
further discussion of the mathematics behind the Wave Principle,
see "Mathematical Basis of Wave Theory," by Walter E. White, in
New Classics Library's forthcoming book.)
In arriving at the solution, we find that each pair, including the first
pair, needs a month's time to mature, but once in production, begets
a new pair each month. The number of pairs is the same at the
beginning of each of the first two months, so the sequence is 1, 1.
This first pair finally doubles its number during the second month, so
that there are two pairs at the beginning of the third month. Of
these, the older pair begets a third pair the following month so that
at the beginning of the fourth month, the sequence expands 1, 1, 2,
3. Of these three, the two older pairs reproduce, but not the
youngest pair, so the number of rabbit pairs expands to five. The
next month, three pairs reproduce so the sequence expands to 1, 1,
2, 3, 5, 8 and so forth. Figure 3-1 shows the Rabbit Family Tree with
the family growing with logarithmic acceleration. Continue the
sequence for a few years and the numbers become astronomical. In
100 months, for instance, we would have to contend with
354,224,848,179,261,915,075 pairs of rabbits. The Fibonacci
sequence resulting from the rabbit problem has many interesting
properties and reflects an almost constant relationship among its
components.
32
The sum of any two adjacent numbers in the sequence forms the
next higher number in the sequence, viz., 1 plus 1 equals 2, 1 plus 2
equals 3, 2 plus 3 equals 5, 3 plus 5 equals 8, and so on to infinity.
After the first several numbers in the sequence, the ratio of any
number to the next higher is approximately .618 to 1 and to the next
lower number approximately 1.618 to 1. The further along the
sequence, the closer the ratio approaches phi (denoted f) which is
an irrational number, .618034.... Between alternate numbers in the
sequence, the ratio is approximately .382, whose inverse is 2.618.
Refer to Figure 3-2 for a ratio table interlocking all Fibonacci
numbers from 1 to 144.
33
Phi is the only number that when added to 1 yields its inverse: .618
+ 1 = 1 ÷ .618. This alliance of the additive and the multiplicative
produces the following sequence of equations:
.6182 = 1 - .618,
or alternatively,
1.6182 = 1 + 1.618,
1) 1.618 - .618 = 1,
34
2) 1.618 x .618 = 1,
3) 1 - .618 = .382,
5) 2.618 - 1.618 = 1,
6) 2.618 x .382 = 1,
36
The 10-period simple moving average is used for the first calculation
only. After that the previous period's EMA is used.
37
Note that, in theory, every previous closing price in the data set is
used in the calculation of each EMA that makes up the EMA line.
While the impact of older data points diminishes over time, it never
fully disappears. This is true regardless of the EMA's specified
period. The effects of older data diminish rapidly for shorter EMA's.
Than for longer ones but, again, they never completely disappear.
Price Trend
As per Gold candlestick charts are prices are in the bullish phase. If
we are look in to the price trend for past couple of days 7 bullish
candles out of 10 candles has formed which means prices are more
positive and trend would be expected to continue.
As per the moving averages concern EMA (5) is above the
EMA (6) which shows prices are positive territory. Open interest is
negative which positive divergence for prices concern is.
As per MACD histogram, the histogram is in positive zone
which leads trend is intact. Of course already the trend confirms
bullish so prices would be in bullish zone for the next couple of days.
38
39
CHAPTER - 5
COMPANY PROFILE
40
Religare Enterprises Limited
Religare Enterprises Limited (REL) is one of the leading integrated
financial services groups of India. REL's businesses are broadly
clubbed across three key verticals, the Retail, Institutional and
Wealth spectrums, catering to a diverse and wide base of clients.
41
Brand Essence - Core brand essence is Diligence and Religare is driven by
ethical and dynamic processes for wealth creation
Group Structure
Religare COMMODITIES Limited
• Equity Broking
• Online Investment Portal
• Portfolio Management Services
• Depository Services
42
• Gallery launched - arts-I
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Religare Macquarie Wealth Management Ltd.
Private Wealth business (Macquarie, Australian
Financial Services major as a partner)
For more information log on to
www.religaremacquarie.com
Vistaar Religare -The Film Fund
India's first SEBI approved Film Fund
Brand Identity
Name
Symbol
For us, each leaf of the clover has a special meaning. It is a symbol
of Hope, Trust, Care and Good Fortune.
45
CHAPTER - 6
46
Fundamental analysis
DEMAND AND CONSUMPTION OF GOLD
47
Gold fabrication for domestic and international market, also formed
large part of business in India with 527 tones of gold fabricated in
India in 2004, making world largest fabricator which is 60% more
than its closet competitor Italy, Turkey, USA. But this Jeweler
Fabrication is unable to generate much revenue, as most of its
consumed in India (479 tones).
18.70%
India
Italy
42.20% 11.10% Turkey
US
China
Jap an
Rest of world
8.50%
7.30%
5.30%
6.90%
Uses of Gold
49
estimates are that official gold bullion imports in 2001 were 654
tons. Exports have increased dramatically since 1996, and in 2001
stood at over 60 tons. The US accounted for about one third of total
official exports. Manufacturers located in Special Export Zones can
import gold tax-free through various registered banks under an
Export Replenishment scheme.
50
NEWS FROM THE DEMAND AND SUPPLY
SIDE
53
Outlook for Q4 2009
The strong level of demand for jewellery, bars, coins and ETFs that
was evident in Q3 appears to have continued into early Q4. ETF
holdings broke record highs yet again in October, bar and coin
shortages have continued and anecdotal reports suggest that India
enjoyed buoyant sales during the mid-October Diwali Festival.
Offsetting these positive factors, though, is an outlook of continued
weak jewellery demand in Europe and the US.
54
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
For the Gold, progress ultimately takes the form of five waves of a specific
structure. Three of these waves, which are labeled 1, 3 and 5, actually effect the
directional movement. They are separated by two countertrend interruptions, which
are labeled 2 and 4, as shown in chart. The two interruptions are
apparently a requisite for overall directional movement to occur.
55
Motive mode is employed by both the five wave pattern on Gold
chart and its same-directional components, i.e., waves 1, 3 and 5.
Their structures are called "motive" because they powerfully impel
the market. This is trend wave which is any wave that trends in the
same direction as the wave of one larger degree of which it is a part.
As per chart fibonacci lines are drawn which is, the ratio of any
number to the next higher is approximately .618 to 1 and to the next
lower number approximately 1.618 to 1. The further along the
sequence, the closer the ratio approaches phi (denoted f) which is
an irrational number, .618034.... Between alternate numbers in the
sequence, the ratio is approximately .382, whose inverse is 2.618.
As per Elliotwave theory Prices are in the 5th wave which is motive
wave. To find the target of 5th wave we can combine elliotwave
with fibonacci on 3 rd wave.
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GOLD SHORT TERM TREND
57
Indian Rupees Vs Gold
Recall from last week that the PVE Gold Index consists of the GDP-
weighted gold price in thirty-six countries, including the United
States. Since nine of the countries in the index use the euro, twenty-
eight currencies are represented. For convenience, I copied last
week’s chart below; let’s see what we can glean from it.
58
The PVE Gold Index gives us an idea of how the average gold price
in the world is changing. When the gold price in any given currency
deviates from the PVE Gold Index it implies a change in the
exchange rate of that currency with respect to the other currencies
in the index.
We can therefore see that the US dollar exchange rate was relatively
stable from January 1990 to the middle of 1992, when the dollar
started to strengthen. We know the dollar strengthened because the
gold price, in dollars, started to drop below the PVE Gold Index
indicating that the dollar’s purchasing power was increasing. But
why did the dollar strengthen?
59
not only against the real, but against many other currencies as well.
Between 1992 and 1994 the dollar increased by about ten percent
against the other currencies in the PVE Gold Index.
The Brazilian real crisis was hardly behind us when, in 1995, the
Mexican peso dropped more than fifty percent against the dollar.
This was the worst financial crisis in Mexico since the Mexican
Revolution. More capital flowed into the United States, competing for
dollars on foreign exchange markets and keeping the dollar strong.
Between 1995 and 1996 the Japanese yen lost about twenty-five
percent against the dollar. More demand for dollars meant that the
dollar continued to strengthen on foreign currency markets, further
increasing the gap between the average, worldwide gold price and the
US dollar-gold price. Japan set the stage for the big one, the Southeast
Asian currency crisis.
Still shaken from the events of 1996 and 1997, Russia defaulted on
its foreign debt in 1998, sending the ruble down seventy percent in
just one year. In conjunction with the Southeast Asian crisis the
mood is grim, and international capital pours into the US seeking
refuge.
We have seen that the decline in the US dollar-gold price, and its
under-performance relative to the rest of the world, is a reflection of
the US dollar’s exchange rate. It is my belief that the US dollar gold
price will again catch up with the PVE Gold Index as a result of
continued weakness in the dollar to correct America’s enormous
trade deficit. This correction of the dollar has only just begun and is
likely to increase the US dollar-gold price by approximately thirty-
five to forty percent more than the concurrent average increase in
the gold price in other currencies.
61
As the Rupee start strengthening Gold prices start strengthening. As
per charts the data we analyze from Sept 2008 to Feb 2009. From
Oct middle onwards the rupee starts weakening and the gold is
almost all flat but on Nov middle onwards when the rupee starts
strengthen up Gold is also starts rises. The means Gold prices are
correlated to INR vs. Dollar currency.
CHAPTER - 7
62
FINDINGS
AND
SUGGESTIONS
FINDINGS:
1. The forward Market Commission should be measure and take
steps to create awareness among the traders about the commodity
exchanges and their working.
63
3. The factors other than the economic factors such as the geo
political circumstances have to be tracked constantly.
64
i) Tax uniformity and simplification to facilitate easier delivery of
goods. Creation of physical infrastructure to facilitate the
same.
65
CHAPTER - 8
RECOMONDATIONS
AND CONCLUSIONS
Recommendations
For Short Term: (2 to 4 weeks)
Buy Gold (Max) above 14600 levels with stop loss of 14200 for Target
16000.
66
Buy gold above Rs14600
Stop loss Rs14200
1st Resistance Rs15200
2nd Resistance Rs16000
1st Support Rs14200
2nd Support Rs14000
Buy Gold at current levels (14100) with s/l of 13000 for Target of
Rs17400
CONCLUSION:
67
2. Price movements are more predictable, purely based on demand
on and supply of that particular commodity unlike the equity
markets and bond markets which are based on different types of
financial data like actions of different central banks on interest rates,
quarterly rates of companies, and sales of companies and so on. To
that extent, price risk is reduced in commodity market.
6. Another conclusion is that the farmers and traders are not fully
aware of the existence of the commodity exchanges in India.
10. The initial margin payment and its very rigid and strict
implementation though necessary have found some times
discouraging investors from investing in commodity markets.
68
12. Most of the trading now taking place in the commodities is being
done by the speculators only traders are not fully aware of the
commodities market.
13. As the commodities market are working virtually round the clock,
any drastic news is digested by the market which is not so with
equity market like the September incident when equity markets all
over the world opened far down the next day morning and the
investors were left hanging.
17. The prices of the Gold and Silver are subject to variety of
reasons such as US Dollar rates, festival demand in India and other
geo political circumstances.
18. In spite of the high prices on Gold the demand for these
commodities is still bullish and remained so in the recent months
also.
19. Gold is treated as most secured and is safe haven buy for
investor as the world is surrounded by geopolitical tensions, energy
prices and instability in currency rates.
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CHAPTER - 9
BIBLIOGRAPHY
BIBLIOGRAPHY
BOOKS:
70
• Investment management
-V.K.Bhalla
• Investment management
-Preeti Singh
• Security Analysis And Portfolio Management
-V.A.Avadhani
• Marketing of Financial Services
-V.A.Avadhani
• Indian Financial System
-M.Y.Khan
WEBSITES:
• www.geojit-financialservices-ltd.com
• www.bseindia.com
• www.sebi.gov.in
• www.moneycontrol.com
• www.economictimes.com
• www.nseindia.com
• www..icicidirect.com
• www.indiabulls.com
• www.hdfcsecurities.com
• www.5paisa.com
BOOK:
71
NCFM MODULE FOR COMMODITY MARKET
NEWS PAPERS:
BUSINESS STANDARD
BUSINESS LINE
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