McCawtn.

xls
This spreadsheet is provided to support instructor preparation of UVA-F-1142 and 1143, "McCaw Cellular" and "AT
Assumptions may be toggled between ATT and McCaw outlooks by changing the entry in cell B9: either "mccaw" o

Exhibit TN10
Financial Forecast of McCaw Cellular Prepared By AT&T, Remaining Portion of LIN Broadcasting Purchased

Modeling Assumptions:
att

AT&T
Annual Pop 0.01
Annual Pen 0.16
Purchase Ry

33603
Direct Costs & Exp. (e 0.331906 0.3297942 0.3215772 0.3135106
Direct Cost Increment -0.025
Marketing Expenses (%0.264339 0.2559573 0.225341 0.1982133
Marketing Expense In -0.12
Depreciation + Amortiz 0.352406 0.3478795 0.3305435 0.3139612
D&A Increment (%) -0.05
CapEx per Net Subscri 1190 1020 870 785
1190 ATT 1020 870 785
1147 McCaw 1000 850 750
Net Working Captial ( 198 150 75 38
198 ATT 150 75 38
198 McCaw 150 60 24
Tax Rate 0.36

3 Mths Full Year

Date 9/30/1992 12/31/1992 12/31/1993 12/31/1994

Discount Periods 0 0.2520548 1.2486339 2.2520548

McCaw Pops (millions) 45 45.113003 45.562582 46.019774

Penetration (From Penetration Growth Factor 0.0212 0.0220081 0.0255165 0.0296141
McCaw Subscribers 0.94 0.9928521 1.1625954 1.362835

LIN Pops (millions) 26.4 26.466295 26.730048 26.998268

LIN Penetration 0.0238 0.0247072 0.0286458 0.033246
LIN Subscribers 0.595 0.6539086 0.7657044 0.8975854
McCaw Share of LIN Subscribers 0.3094 0.3400325 0.3981663 0.4667444
McCaw Share of LIN POPs 13.728 13.762473 13.899625 14.039099

Proportionate McCaw POPs 58.5 58.875476 59.462207 60.058873

Proportionate McCaw Subscribers
Beginning Subscribers (millions) 0 1.2494 1.3328845 1.5607617
Subscribers Added 0 0.0834845 0.2278772 0.2688177
 Ending Subscribers 1.2494 1.3328845 1.5607617 1.8295794
Period Average Subscribers 0 1.2911423 1.4468231 1.6951705

Avg. Net Rev./Sub/month ($) 76.88627 72.7788 68.70354

Total Net Service Revenue (millions) 297.81334 1263.5766 1397.5706
% Growth Net Service Revenue 0.1060434

Direct Costs & Expenses (except Mktg) -98.217122 -406.33747 -438.15326

Marketing -76.227504 -284.73557 -277.01715
Operating Cash Flow 123.36871 572.50358 682.4002
Depreciation & Amortization (millions) -103.60314 -417.667 -438.78295
Cellular Operating Income (millions) 19.765571 154.83657 243.61724

After-Tax Cellular Operating Income (millions) 12.649966 99.095405 155.91504

(+) Depreciation & Amortization 103.60314 417.667 438.78295
(-) CapEx -85.154229 -198.25315 -211.02186
(-) DNWC 0 85.159606 44.095254
Free Cash Flow 31.098878 403.66887 427.77138
1143, "McCaw Cellular" and "AT&T".
entry in cell B9: either "mccaw" or "att".

N Broadcasting Purchased

0.3056729 0.2980104 0.2905601 0.2832961 0.2762137 0.2694436 0.2625575 0.2559935

0.1744277 0.1534427 0.1350295 0.118826 0.1045669 0.0922523 0.0809482 0.0712344

0.2982631 0.2833102 0.2691447 0.2556874 0.2429031 0.2309926 0.2191892 0.2082297

745 700 650 600 550 500 450 450

745 700 650 600 550 500 450 450
650 575 550 520 500 500 450 450
19 9 5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
19 9 5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
10 4 2 2 2 2 2 2

12/31/1995 12/31/1996 12/31/1997 12/31/1998 12/31/1999 12/31/2000 12/31/2001 12/31/2002

3.2520548 4.2547945 5.2547945 6.2547945 7.2547945 8.2349727 9.2575342 10.257534

46.479972 46.946052 47.415512 47.889667 48.368564 48.842615 49.342117 49.835538

0.0343524 0.039865 0.0462434 0.0536423 0.0622251 0.071969 0.0837641 0.0971664
1.5966975 1.8715026 2.1926524 2.5689116 3.0097368 3.5151556 4.1330978 4.8423374

27.26825 27.541684 27.8171 28.095271 28.376224 28.654334 28.947375 29.236849

0.0385654 0.0447541 0.0519147 0.0602211 0.0698564 0.0807954 0.0940371 0.109083
1.0516111 1.2326022 1.4441167 1.6919272 1.9822619 2.3151389 2.7221258 3.1892426
0.5468377 1.2326022 1.4441167 1.6919272 1.9822619 2.3151389 2.7221258 3.1892426
14.17949 27.541684 27.8171 28.095271 28.376224 28.654334 28.947375 29.236849

60.659462 74.487735 75.232612 75.984939 76.744788 77.496949 78.289492 79.072387

1.8295794 2.1435352 3.1041048 3.6367692 4.2608388 4.9919987 5.8302945 6.8552236

0.3139558 0.9605696 0.5326644 0.6240696 0.7311599 0.8382958 1.0249291 1.1763564
2.1435352 3.1041048 3.6367692 4.2608388 4.9919987 5.8302945 6.8552236 8.03158
1.9865573 2.62382 3.370437 3.948804 4.6264187 5.4111466 6.3427591 7.4434018

65.18496 62.06456 59.70215 57.53255 55.61654 53.33467 51.10382 49.21458

1553.9239 1954.1548 2414.668 2726.2171 3087.6648 3463.2206 3889.6706 4395.8867
0.111875 0.2575615 0.2356585 0.1290236 0.1325821 0.121631 0.1231368 0.1301437

-474.99239 -582.35842 -701.60624 -772.32674 -852.85538 -933.1425 -1021.262 -1125.3185

-271.04744 -299.85073 -326.05153 -323.94548 -322.86748 -319.49013 -314.86198 -313.13857
807.88406 1071.9457 1387.0102 1629.9449 1911.942 2210.588 2553.5466 2957.4296
-463.47823 -553.63193 -649.89501 -697.05946 -750.00323 -799.97848 -852.57381 -915.35437
344.40583 518.31372 737.11523 932.88546 1161.9387 1410.6095 1700.9728 2042.0753

220.41973 331.72078 471.75375 597.04669 743.64079 902.79009 1088.6226 1306.9282

463.47823 553.63193 649.89501 697.05946 750.00323 799.97848 852.57381 915.35437
-233.89709 -319.0574 -346.23185 -374.44175 -402.13796 -419.1479 -461.2181 -529.36037
26.671892 14.130208 6.762195 6.980175 -1.6940369 -1.9618197 -2.3290311 -2.7516069
476.67276 580.42552 782.17911 926.64457 1089.812 1281.6588 1477.6493 1690.1706