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Nouvelles approches pour l’évaluation environnementale

des biocarburants avancés


Fabio Machado Menten

To cite this version:


Fabio Machado Menten. Nouvelles approches pour l’évaluation environnementale des biocarburants
avancés. Autre. Ecole nationale supérieure d’arts et métiers - ENSAM, 2013. Français. �NNT :
2013ENAM0009�. �pastel-00869565�

HAL Id: pastel-00869565


https://pastel.archives-ouvertes.fr/pastel-00869565
Submitted on 3 Oct 2013

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École doctorale n° 432 : Sciences des Métiers de l’Ingénieur

Doctorat ParisTech

THÈSE
pour obtenir le grade de docteur délivré par

l’École Nationale Supérieure d'Arts et Métiers


Spécialité “ Énergétique ”

présentée et soutenue publiquement par

Fabio Machado MENTEN


le 26 mars 2013

Nouvelles approches pour l’évaluation environnementale


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Directeur de thèse : Henri BERTIN
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Co-encadrement de la thèse : Jean-François BONNET
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Jury !
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M. Benoît GABRIELLE, Professeur, INRA, AgroParisTech Président T
Mme. Catherine! AZZARO-PANTEL, Professeur, LGC, ENSIACET Rapporteur
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M. Pascal LESAGE, Chercheur, CIRAIG, Polytechnique Montréal Rapporteur H
M. Henri BERTIN,
! Directeur de Recherche, CNRS, Arts
! et Métiers ParisTech Examinateur
M. Jean-François BONNET, Maître de Conférences, I2M, Arts et Métiers ParisTech Examinateur È
M. Arnaud HELIAS, Maître de Conférences, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro Examinateur
M. Jean-François GRUSON, Chef de Département D3E, IFP Energies nouvelles Invité S
Mme. Anne PRIEUR-VERNAT, Ingénieur de Recherche, GDF Suez Invité
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Arts et Métiers ParisTech - Centre de Bordeaux-Talence
Institut de Mécanique et d’Ingénierie
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w>t! V/$:T.0.!)0!.0/.#8#:#43!>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>!ovu!
w>r! C65:'($4#'/!)0.!:#,#40.!)%!,')=:0!>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>!oqo!
w>u! I#.1%..#'/!.%(!:f%/#43!O'/14#'//0::0!>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>!oqw!
w>w! K0,$(7%0.!O#/$:0.!04!(01',,$/)$4#'/.!,34+')':'2#7%0.!>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>!oqq!

?'/1:%.#'/.!04!50(.5014#-0.!>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>!opt!
K3O3(0/10.!>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>!opp!
V//060!V!>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>!GGo!
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V//060!?!>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>!GGu!
V//060!I!>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>!Grt!
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A#2%(0!Gw!Q!\$:0%(.!5(3)#40.!)0!:*%//%'39",:%!5'%(!:f0/.0,8:0!)0!:f31+$/4#::'/!1$:1%:30.!9!
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A#2%(0!tG!H!"4(%14%(0!.#,5:#O#30!)%!,')=:0!D@KCJ!>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>!orq!
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:f#/4(')%14#'/!)f%/0!401+/':'2#0!1',534#4#-0!FJr8MU!1M!COO04!)0!:f%.$20!'8:#2$4'#(0!)f%/0!
401+/':'2#0!FJwM!)$/.!:0!$,;!401+/':'2#7%0>!>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>!ouo!
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A#2%(0!tw!H!BKY!$..'1#3!9!:$!)31#.#'/!)0!5(')%#(0!)%!EJL!5'%(!:0.!.13/$(#'.!KCACKCZ?C!
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A#2%(0!rx!H!COO04.!)%!(0,5:$10,0/4!)0.!401+/':'2#0.!)0!5(')%14#'/!)f3:014(#1#43!)$/.!:0!
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A#2%(0!rG!H!COO04.!)%!(0,5:$10,0/4!)0.!401+/':'2#0.!)0!5(')%14#'/!)0!1+$:0%(!)$/.!:0!
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How do They Compare with Natural Influences?
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ivities contribute to climate change by causing
h’s atmosphere in the amounts of greenhouse gas-
mall particles), and cloudiness. The largest known
mes from the burning of fossil fuels, which releases
gas to the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases and aero-
ate by altering incoming solar radiation and out-
(thermal) radiation that are part of Earth’s energy
ing the atmospheric abundance or properties of
particles can lead to a warming or cooling of the
Since the start of the industrial era (about 1750),
t of human activities on climate has been a warm-
he human impact on climate during this era greatly
e to known changes in natural processes, such as
nd volcanic eruptions.

Gases
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1. Atmospheric ?H:CD5!
concentrations of important @D7F5!
long-lived green- @5! G95! @=:<! ?.=;6H<IJA75!
vities result in emissions of four principal green- house gases over the last 2,000 years. Increases since about 1750 are attributed to
S(HD785!T!1*,,!UXXZ[! human activities in the industrial era. Concentration units are parts per million (ppm)
arbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide
or parts per billion (ppb), indicating the number of molecules of the greenhouse gas
halocarbons (a group !of gases containing fluorine, per million or billion air molecules, respectively, in an atmospheric sample. (Data
omine). These gases accumulate in the atmosphere, combined and simplified from Chapters 6 and 2 of this report.)
trations to increase with time. Significant increases
ases have occurred in the industrial era (see Figure • Ozone is a greenhouse gas that is continually produced and
increases are attributable to human activities. destroyed in the atmosphere by chemical reactions. In the tro-
xide has increased from fossil fuel use in transpor- posphere, human activities have increased ozone through the
ding heating and cooling and the manufacture of release of gases such as carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons and
other goods. Deforestation releases CO2 and re- nitrogen oxide, which chemically react to produce ozone. As
ptake by plants. Carbon dioxide is also released in mentioned above, halocarbons released by human activities
cesses such as the decay of plant matter. destroy ozone in the stratosphere and have caused the ozone
hole over Antarctica.
s increased as a result of human activities related
re, natural gas distribution and landfills. Methane • Water vapour is the most abundant and important greenhouse
sed from natural processes that occur, for example, gas in the atmosphere. However, human activities have only
Methane concentrations are not currently increas- a small direct influence on the amount of atmospheric wa-
tmosphere because growth rates decreased over the ter vapour. Indirectly, humans have the potential to affect
ades. water vapour substantially by changing climate. For example,
a warmer atmosphere contains more water vapour. Human
de is also emitted by human activities such as fertil-
activities also influence water vapour through CH4 emissions,
d fossil fuel burning. Natural processes in soils and
because CH4 undergoes chemical destruction in the strato-
also release N2O.
sphere, producing a small amount of water vapour. !
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gas concentrations have increased primarily due
ctivities. Natural processes are also a small source. • Aerosols are small particles present in the atmosphere with
alocarbons include the ! chlorofluorocarbons (e.g., widely! varying size, concentration and chemical composition.
CFC-12), which were used extensively as refrig- Some aerosols are emitted directly into the atmosphere while
nts and in other industrial processes before their others are formed from emitted compounds. Aerosols contain
the atmosphere was found to cause stratospheric both naturally occurring compounds and those emitted as a re-
tion. The abundance of chlorofluorocarbon gases is sult of human activities. Fossil fuel and biomass burning have
as a result of international regulations designed to increased aerosols containing sulphur compounds, organic
ozone layer. compounds and black carbon (soot). Human activities such as
(continued)

135

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Biomethane Biojet Biodiesel - advanced Biodiesel - conventional


Ethanol - cellulosic Ethanol - cane Ethanol - conventional
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Biomasse

Solides Acide/Base
Prétraitement

Chaleur pour
Enzymes
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Levures
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Chaudière
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Ethanol
Liquides
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Nutriments
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Photobioréacteur CO2
Chaleur pour Bassin ouvert
le procédé
Turbine à
combustion
Récolte
Biogaz
Masse algal
Digestion Extraction de
anaérobique l'huile

Glycérol
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12
!

Définition des
objectifs et
du système

Inventaire
des polluants
& matières Interprétation
premières

Analyse
de l’impact

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! Fig. 2.1 Étapes de l’analyse du cycle de vie

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2.2 CARACTERISTIQUES ET RELATION AVEC D’AUTRES OUTILS
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D’ANALYSE ENVIRONNEMENTALE

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• de fournir une aide à la décision en apportant uniquement des informations sur
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l’aspect environnemental d’un produit. La décision finale est prise en
incluant des aspects autres que l’environnement tels que le coût, les
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conséquences sociales, la faisabilité économique et technique...
)f%/0!V?\>!! • d’inclure les principaux problèmes environnementaux (de la diminution des
ressources à la toxicité)
• de relier les impacts environnementaux à la fonction du système
• de couvrir tout le cycle de production, du berceau à la tombe, de l‘extraction
des ressources au traitement des déchets. Le terme d’analyse du cycle de vie
(ACV) , correspondant à l’anglais «Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)», souligne
! bien cet aspect. Le synonyme français d’écobilan, correspondant à ut!
l’allemand «Ökobilanz» insiste plus sur la notion quantifiée de bilan et
d’inventaire des émissions. Le glossaire donné en annexe 1 détaille la
correspondance entre termes français, anglais et allemands et définit en détail
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mean 5th percentile min max 95th percentile

1600

1400
LCA GHG emissions (in gCO2eq /MJ of biofuel)

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

-200 G3 G2-BtL G2-Ethanol

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Studies Observations
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Cumulative number of studies


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Samples Whole Whole G2 G2 G2 G2
Model 1aAll 2aAll 1aG2 2aG2 1bG2 2bG2
Constant 76.27*** 271.74*** 20.32*** 27.24*** 21.14*** 28.43***
(13.64) (23.66) (3.43) (4.72) (3.61) (5.04)
Technical data
gen_3 (ref for Whole)
etha -41.39*** -220.92*** 5.84*** - 5.83*** -
(13.14) (23.77) (1.91) (1.81)
btl (ref for G2) -52.12*** -215.57***
(13.36) (22.59)
mat_cult -9.47*** -11.56***
(2.21) (3.02)
mat_cultxdluc -7.94*** -13.67***
(2.46) (3.23)
Methodological choices
lca_att (ref)
lca_cons -33.66*** -40.41*** -34.04*** -39.09***
(4.79) (8.63) (4.9) (8.37)
copval_alloc 8.96*** 8.82** 8*** 6.99*
(1.91) (3.62) (1.94) (3.84)
copval_systexp (ref)
copval_hyb 5.25** - 5.41** -
(2.38) (2.69)
luc_dir - -
luc_indir 29.97*** 39.78*** 29.62*** 36.54***
(6.32) (7.27) (6.34) (7.2)
uncer_MC 8.03** 16.68*** 8.04** 17.25***
(3.45) (4.61) (3.41) (4.58)
uncer_SA 7.78*** 7.08* 7.32*** 6.69**
(2.4) (3.63) (2.39) (3.39)
uncer_ref (ref)
impcat_nev 9.26*** - 7.71*** -
(2.99) (2.71)
impcat_nrc -15.01*** -7.31** -12.65*** -
(2.36) (3.41) (2.54)
impcat_other - - 0.84* -
(0.49)
impcat_gwponly (ref)
Typology of the study
zlab_us -24.6*** -190.58*** -8.32*** -18.58*** -8.66*** -19.73***
(3.97) (25.05) (2.1) (3.66) (2.12) (3.2)
zlab_eu (ref)
zlab_other -85.69*** -281.16***
(15.6) (24.85)
Model information
N 533 533 464 464 464 464
Mean dep. Var. 28.64 17.62 24.15 25.04 24.15 25.01
Adj. R-squ. 16.30% 68.76% 37.26% 30.95% 38.33% 30.94%
Log-Likelihood -2727.20 -3068.04 -1976.89 -2044.50 -1972.36 -2044.03
F-stat. 18.93 32.82
(P. value) (0,0000) (0,0000)
Skewness 61.27 24.57 23.56
(P. value) (0,0000) (0.017) (0.0354)
Kurtosis 8.75 1.6 3.06
(P. value) (0.0031) (0.2062) (0.0801)
AIC 5464.39 6146.08 3977.78 4113.00 3970.72 4114.05
BIC 5485.79 6167.47 4027.45 4162.68 4024.54 4167.87
Wald Test (P. value) for 26.29 0.22
etha=btl (0,0000) (0.6409)
OLS OLS OLS
Procedure (White's WLS (White's WLS (White's WLS
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Samples Ethanol Ethanol Ethanol Ethanol Ethanol Ethanol
Model 1aEtha 2aEtha 1bEtha 2bEtha 1cEtha 2cEtha
Constant -5.88 31.9 46.39*** 37.85*** 32.11*** 34.07***
(14.8) (31.58) (8.33) (13.52) (2.64) (3.95)
Technical data
mat_cultxdluc -7.18** -10.1** -6.91** -9.92** - -
(3.26) (4.85) (3.28) (4.79)
g2_mass_yield -73.57** -
(34.79)
g2_mass_yield_sq
g2_mass_yield_ln -23.22** -
(9.3)
Methodological choices
lca_att (ref)
lca_cons -38.24*** -40.12*** -38.43*** -40.17*** -40.24*** -40.72***
(5.53) (11.37) (5.46) (11.33) (4.72) (9.9)
luc_indir 29.01*** 35.89*** 27.48*** 35.07*** 19.85*** 31.7***
(7.49) (8.59) (7.41) (8.43) (7.29) (7.78)
uncer_MC 9.51** 20.32*** 9.66** 20.43*** 10.06** 18.67***
(4.06) (5.83) (4.11) (5.82) (4.23) (5.5)
uncer_SA 12.5*** 12.28** 11.53*** 11.99** 12.09*** 14.01***
(3.68) (5.71) (3.59) (5.57) (2.72) (4.08)
uncer_ref (ref)
impcat_nev 12.34*** - 11.05*** - 9.51** 11.15*
(3.99) (3.99) (3.94) (6.49)
impcat_nrc -17.09*** -14.16*** -17.24*** -14.18*** -22.53*** -20.14***
(3.19) (5) (3.17) (5) (2.51) (4.08)
impcat_other - - - - -1.09* -
(0.61)
impcat_gwponly (ref)
Typology of the study
zlab_us -7.29** -28.56*** -8.22** -29.23*** -11.26*** -23.84***
(3.56) (7.44) (3.56) (7.35) (2.37) (4.74)
zlab_eu (ref)
Model information
N 209 209 209 209 321 321
Mean dep. Var. 19.70 19.14 19.70 18.96 26.61 26.61
Adj. R-squ. 31.21% 36.31% 30.32% 36.24% 40.13% 37.82%
Log-Likelihood -884.15 -919.42 -885.49 -919.54 -1364.10 -1412.35
F-stat. 12.61 10.91 12.55 10.79 33.94 27.19
(P. value) (0,0000) (0,0000) (0,0000) (0,0000) (0,0000) (0,0000)
Skewness 18.14 16.84 18.16
(P. value) (0.0527) (0.078) (0.0333)
Kurtosis 0.32 0.23
(P. value) (0.5729) (0.6351)
AIC 1790.30 1860.83 1792.98 1861.08 2748.21 2844.70
BIC 1827.07 1897.60 1829.75 1897.85 2785.92 2882.42
LR test (P. value) 959.9 985.87 957.22 985.62
Nested model: model (c) (0,0000) (0,0000) (0,0000) (0,0000)
OLS OLS OLS
Procedure (White's WLS (White's WLS (White's WLS
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Samples BtL BtL BtL BtL BtL BtL BtL BtL BtL BtL
Model 1aBtL 2aBtL 1bBtL 2bBtL 1cBtL 2cBtL 1dBtL 2dBtL 1eBtL 2eBtL
Constant 43.23*** 29.68 70.94*** 75.11*** 39.6*** 32.19*** 27.43*** 29.03*** 16.03** 24.5***
(12.66) (20.05) (9.38) (12.85) (6.29) (6.36) (5.59) (5.69) (6.33) (8.38)
Technical data
mat_cultxdluc -14.41*** -19.53*** -15.41*** -20.33*** -15.16*** -18.1*** -16.24*** -17.02*** -11.64*** -13.28***
(3.08) (3.27) (3.11) (3.23) (2.93) (2.84) (2.47) (2.6) (3.98) (4.46)
cop_elec -44.56*** -35.68*** -43.99*** -35.94*** -19.4*** - - -
(4.14) (7.7) (4.19) (7.71) (5.09)
g2_mass_yield - -
g2_mass_yield_sq
g2_mass_yield_ln -11.66* -17.41**
(7.04) (8.52)
btl_pro_autoth
btl_pro_alng 17.04*** - 17.73*** - 13.85** -
(5.4) (5.73) (5.6)
btl_pro_alelec - - - - - -
btl_pro_alrenew - - - - - -
btl_gasrecycl - - - - - -
Methodological choices
lca_att (ref)
lca_cons 25.61*** - 26.23*** - 22.97*** - 18.1** - - -
(8.36) (8.6) (8.68) (8.87)
copval_alloc 9.6*** - 9.81*** - 13.73*** 12.51*** 16*** 11.02** 11.7*** 13.21***
(3.37) (3.4) (3.05) (4.33) (2.96) (4.65) (2.79) (4.31)
copval_systexp (ref)
copval_hyb - - - - - - - - - -
luc_indir - - - - - - - - - -
uncer_MC - - - - - - - - - -
uncer_SA - - - - - - - - - -
uncer_ref (ref)
impcat_nev - - - - - - - - - -
impcat_nrc - - - - - - - - - -
impcat_other - - - - - - - - - -
impcat_gwponly (ref)
Typology of the study
zlab_us -21.42*** - -24.38*** -16.37* -22.11*** -16.59*** -16.51*** -14.91*** -11.41** -17.34***
(4.8) (4.71) (9.57) (4.35) (5.51) (4.09) (5.03) (4.93) (5.29)
zlab_eu (ref)
Model information
N 132 132 132 132 141 141 143 143 143 143
Mean dep. Var. 19.45 21.96 19.45 21.84 18.80 22.29 18.65 22.22 18.65 21.62
Adj. R-squ. 39.48% 26.01% 38.39% 23.56% 35.19% 25.06% 31.39% 25.56% 33.22% 24.68%
Log-Likelihood -548.53 -568.94 -549.72 -571.09 -589.14 -608.32 -603.08 -618.57 -599.04 -617.29
F-stat. 16 15.66 11.34 10.69
(P. value) (0,0000) (0,0000) (0,0000) (0,0000)
Skewness 12.64 13.7 13.31 12.09 16.91
(P. value) (0.2445) (0.1869) (0.1492) (0.0336) (0.0501)
Kurtosis 2.53 2.38 2.22 1.64 1.52
(P. value) (0.1117) (0.1232) (0.1364) (0.2004) (0.2184)
AIC 1115.07 1155.89 1117.44 1160.18 1194.29 1232.65 1218.17 1249.13 1218.07 1254.57
BIC 1141.01 1181.83 1143.38 1186.12 1217.88 1256.24 1235.95 1266.91 1247.70 1284.20
LR test (P. value) 109.1 99.25 106.73 94.96 27.88 20.49 8.09 2.56
Nested model: model (d) (0,0000) (0,0000) (0,0000) (0,0000) (0,0000) (0,0000) (0.0882) (0.6336)
OLS OLS OLS OLS OLS
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Samples G3 G3 G3 G3 G3 G3 G3 G3 G3 G3
Model 1aG3 2aG3 1bG3 2bG3 1cG3 2cG3 1dG3 2dG3 1eG3 2eG3
Constant 318.44*** 550.41*** 621.72*** 916.55*** 490.82*** 640.23*** 450.73*** 585.43*** 105.38*** 237.46***
(90.09) (171.08) (99.61) (146.59) (87.74) (68.43) (88.11) (59.96) (19.91) (25.17)
Technical data
fame
hvo 134.18*** 185.12*** 135.18*** 181.47*** 137.73*** 178.64*** 134.31*** 176.78***
(35.34) (39.47) (32.44) (34.94) (34.09) (35.28) (34.62) (34.69)
g3_productivity - -5.82*** - -3.19***
(1.86) (1.2)
g3_productivity_sq - 0.02**
(0.01)
g3_productivity_ln -65.31*** -124.8*** -64.46*** -127.33***
(20.13) (45.43) (20.06) (44.5)
g3_oil -434.74*** -521.06*** -425.28*** -522.41*** -430.6*** -527***
(142.4) (112.68) (150.9) (110.74) (146.08) (115.09)
g3_oil_sq
g3_oil_ln -140.32*** -161.66***
(42.3) (39.17)
g3_Oppond -197.13*** -259.9*** -198.94*** -260.33*** -201.93*** -257.79*** -199.6*** -257.1***
(34.6) (24.28) (36.92) (24.35) (38.32) (24.13) (38.46) (23.73)
Methodological choices
lca_att (ref)
lca_cons 172.72*** 250.7*** 174.8*** 254.66*** 196.92** 268.68*** 187.41** 290.31*** - -
(61.08) (70.3) (65.98) (73.36) (79.77) (81.63) (84.67) (86.21)
Typology of the study
zlab_us -207.56*** -259.02*** -198.73*** -244.44*** -201.53*** -244.11*** -199.27*** -240.76*** -95.93*** -225.96***
(31.01) (26.35) (29.55) (25.73) (30.19) (26.09) (30.8) (25.61) (26.17) (31.21)
zlab_eu (ref)
zlab_other - - - - - - - - -114.8*** -246.87***
(21.87) (26.35)
Model information
N 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 69 69
Mean dep. Var. 59.97 68.95 59.97 67.95 59.97 67.85 59.97 66.53 58.84 126.49
Adj. R-squ. 65.23% 80.63% 66.07% 81.32% 66.59% 81.92% 66.06% 81.34% 17.77% 48.39%
Log-Likelihood -373.01 -376.38 -372.18 -375.14 -371.08 -373.46 -372.19 -375.11 -410.22 -418.31
F-stat. 11.11 24.7 11.67 25.07 10.96 22.62 13.53 27.17 11.17 31.42
(P. value) (0,0000) (0,0000) (0,0000) (0,0000) (0,0000) (0,0000) (0,0000) (0,0000) (0,0000) (0,0000)
Skewness 9.25 13.93 14.15 16.85 32.57
(P. value) (0.2352) (0.0524) (0.078) (0.0184) (0,0000)
Kurtosis 0.06 0.32 0.47 0.41 6.01
(P. value) (0.8139) (0.5694) (0.4938) (0.521) (0.0142)
AIC 762.02 768.75 760.36 766.29 760.17 764.92 760.37 766.23 828.44 844.62
BIC 779.78 786.51 778.11 784.04 780.14 784.89 778.13 783.98 837.37 853.56
LR test (P. value) 74.42 83.87 76.08 86.34 78.27 89.71 76.06 86.4
Nested model: model (e) (0,0000) (0,0000) (0,0000) (0) (0,0000) (0,0000) (0,0000) (0,0000)
OLS OLS OLS OLS OLS
Procedure (White's WLS (White's WLS (White's WLS (White's WLS (White's WLS
HCCM) HCCM) HCCM) HCCM) HCCM) !
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Samples Whole G3 G2 BtL Ethanol


Collected values
Number of values 533 69 464 143 321
Mean 28.64 58.84 24.15 18.65 26.61
Min -85.00 -85.00 -24.00 -24.00 -23.65
Max 332.20 332.20 85.80 85.68 85.80
NA values higher than -60% 7% 14% 5% 1% 7%
GHG emission threshold
EU values higher than -60% 25% 30% 24% 17% 27%
GHG emission threshold
Predicted values
Number of values 533 68 464 132 209
Mean 28.64 59.97 24.15 19.45 19.7
[Confident Interval] [25.19;32.09] [43.29;76.65] [22.56;25.74] [16.67;22.23] [17.37;22.03]
Min -9.42 -109.25 -15.82 -8.04 -20.86
Max 76.27 230.82 47.91 56.31 47.49
Underestimated values 44% 46% 44% 47% 47%
Overestimated values 56% 54% 56% 53% 53%
Collected values included in 12% 51% 22% 18% 37%
the predicted value CI
NA values higher than -60% 5% 9% 2% 1% 2%
GHG emission threshold
EU values higher than -60% 7% 28% 22% 8% 1%
GHG emission threshold !
!

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Whole sample G3 sample


Bisecting line North America Europe Other

350 350

300 300
Predicted value of ES (gCO2eq /MJ)

Predicted value of ES (gCO2eq /MJ)


250 250

200 200

150 150

100 100

50 50

0 0
-100 0 100 200 300 -100 0 100 200 300
-50 -50

-100 -100
Collected value of ES (gCO2eq/MJ) Collected value of ES (gCO2eq/MJ)

G2 sample Ethanol sample

100 100

80 80
Predicted value of ES (gCO2eq /MJ)

Predicted value of ES (gCO2eq /MJ)

60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0
-50 0 50 100 -50 0 50 100
-20 -20

-40 -40
Collected value of ES (gCO2eq/MJ) Collected value of ES (gCO2eq/MJ)

BtL sample

100

80
Predicted value of ES (gCO2eq /MJ)

60

40

20

0
-50 0 50 100
-20

-40
Collected value of ES (gCO2eq/MJ)
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120

100
Reference fossil fuel
80
gCO2eq /MJ

60

40 Target -60% GHG emissions (US)


Target -60% GHG emissions (EU)
20

0
G3 G2 Ethanol G2 BtL G3 G2 Ethanol G2 BtL
-20 Europe North America

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Min Max
Predicted value (for oil content mean value in G3 sample) Predicted values
95% Confident Interval (lower) 95% Confident Interval (upper)

300

250

200

150
gCO2eq /MJ

100

50

0
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
-50

-100

-150
Oil content (%)

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Min Max
Predicted value (for productivity mean value in G3 sample) Predicted values
95% Confident Interval (lower) 95% Confident Interval (upper)

250

200

150

100
gCO2eq /MJ

50

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
-50

-100

-150

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Algae productivity (g/(m 2.day))
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Min Max
Predicted value (for mass yield mean value in G2 Ethanol sample) Predicted values
95% Confident Interval (upper) 95% Confident Interval (upper)

60

50

40

30
gCO2eq /MJ

20

10

0
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
-10

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Mass yield (%)
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Min Max
Predicted value (for mass yield mean value in G2 BtL sample) Predicted values
95% Confident Interval (lower) 95% Confident Interval (upper)

50

40

30
gCO2eq /MJ

20

10

0
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
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Mass yield (%)

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EISA Renewable Fuel Volume Requirements (billion gallons)

Cellulosic Biomass- Total Advanced Total renewable


Year
biofuel based diesel biofuel fuel requirement
requirement requirement requirement
2008 QD QD QD 9.0
2009 QD   11.1
2010    12.95
2011    13.95
2012    15.2
2013  D  16.55
2014  D  18.15
2015  D  20.5
2016  D  22.25
2017  D  24.0
2018  D  26.0
2019  D  28.0
2020  D  30.0
2021  D  33.0
2022  D  36.0
2023+ E E E b
ewable fuel must be lessa Tothan the lifecycle GHG emissions of the 2005 baseline average
be determined by EPA through a future rulemaking, but no less than 1.0 billion gallons.
oline or diesel fuel thatb it replaces. Four different levels of reductions are required for the four
To be determined by EPA through a future rulemaking.
erent renewable fuel standards. These lifecycle performance improvement thresholds are ''
ed in the table below:
!
EISA !"#$%"&'
Expands ()' F'Coverage
+' 805&7./2-'to
5%1'Include
0=/11/2-1'Diesel
5%' GH:' and Nonroad Fuels
5%1' #/27"4#&4"-.1' %-' 72=6"4"/12-' "D%7' $%1'
/LIHF\FOH*+*7KUHVKROGV6SHFL¿HGLQ(,6$
EISA expanded the RFS program beyond gasoline to generally cover all transportation fuel.
7"4#&4"-.1'I211/$%1'1%$2-'$"'89:;''
(Percent reduction from 2005 baseline)
This now includes gasoline anda diesel fuel intended for use in highway vehicles and engines,
Renewable fuel 20%
and nonroad, locomotive and marine engines. These provisions continue to apply to refiners, blenders,
Advanced
and importers of biofuel
transportation fuel (with limited 50%
flexibilities for small refiners), and their percentage
standards apply to the total amount
Biomass-based dieselof gasoline and
50%diesel they produce for such use.
Cellulosic biofuel 60%
a
The 20% criterion generally applies to renewable fuel from new facilities that
2010 Standards
commenced construction after December 19, 2007.
For 2010, EISA set a total renewable fuel standard of 12.95 billion gallons. '' This total volume, '
mpliance presented
with each as threshold
a fraction requires
of a refiner’s or importer’s evaluation
a comprehensive gasoline and
of diesel volume,
renewable must
fuels, be renewable
as well
fuel.for
he baseline The final 2010
gasoline and standards
diesel, onare
theshown
basis ofintheir
below.
lifecycle emissions. As mandated by
A, the greenhouse gas emissions assessments must evaluate the aggregate quantity of greenhouse
emissions (including direct emissions and significant indirect emissions such as significant
issions from land use changes) related to the full lifecycle, including all stages of fuel and
dstock production, distribution and use by the ultimate consumer.
! 3 ""#!
A’s lifecycle methodology required breaking new scientific ground and using analytical tools
new ways. Throughout the development of EPA’s lifecycle analysis, the Agency employed
ollaborative, transparent, and science-based approach. EPA recognizes that as the state of
!""#$#%&%
ILCD Handbook: General guide for Life Cycle Assessment - Detailed guidance First edition

Iterative approach - Six aspects of For all situations


the goal definition

Classifying the decision context Situation A Situation B Situation C

Optionally extending the goal -


Function, functional unit, For all situations
reference flow

Selection of LCI modeling Situation A Situation B Situation C

System boundary - Preparing


impact assessment - Data quality,
types and source of data ± For all situations
Comparisons - Planning critical
review and reporting

Identify processes attributionally Situation A Situation B Situation C

Identify processes consequentially Situation A Situation B Situation C1

Data collection - dealing with


missing data - selecting
secondary data - modeling the For all situations
product system

Calculating LCI results For all situations

Calculating LCIA results (may


include normalisation, weighting) For all situations

Interpretation For all situations

Reporting For all situations

Critical review For all situations

Annex For all situations


%
Figure 3 Main differentiation of the document for the three goal situations A, B, and C
'()*+#% &,% -% .%only;
(indicative /(001+#"2(32(4"% 5#6% +#74883"532(4"6%
few other differences exist). 5#% 9:!"#$% &'()*++,% ;4*+% 7<3=*#% 123;#% 5#% 93%
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%% 2.2.4 How to perform


% an LCI or LCA study in accordance with
this document
The structure of this guide generally orients to the workflow encountered in LCA. It cannot
do this however in a strict sense without jumping forth and back in the formal logic of the
phases of an LCA. The fact that performing an LCA studies is an iterative process, poses an
additional challenge to a workflow-based structure.
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Variables Family Description of variables Variables Type of variable (unit)
Technical data
Type of biofuel Second generation biofuel gen_2 Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Third generation biofuel gen_3 Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Ethanol etha Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Biomass to Liquid (BtL) btl Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Fatty Acid Methyl Ester (FAME) fame Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil (HVO) hvo Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Type of biomass Microalgae mat_algae Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
feedstock Agricultural residues mat_agrires Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Forestry residues mat_for Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Energy crop mat_enercult Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Farmed wood mat_farmwood Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Others mat_other Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Cultivated feedstock mat_cult Binary (=1 if 'Cultivated
feedstock'; 0 if 'Waste feedstock')
Type of coproducts Existence of coproduct coprod Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Glycerin as coproduct cop_gly Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Electricity as coproduct cop_elec Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Heat as coproduct cop_heat Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Algal meal as coproduct cop_algmeal Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Biogas as coproduct cop_biog Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Other coproduct cop_other Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Other coproduct than elelctricity cop_otherelec Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Number of coproducts coprod_num Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Type of technologies Mass yield provided mass_yield_exist Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
and associated yields Value of mass yield g2_mass_yield Quantitative (% mass)
Steam explosion as biomass eth_expl Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
pretreatment for Ethanol technology
Dilute sulfuric acid as biomass eth_ac Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
pretreatment for Ethanol technology
Ammonia fibre explosion as biomass eth_amm Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
pretreatment for Ethanol technology
Other processes as biomass eth_other Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
pretreatment for Ethanol technology
Torrefaction as biomass pretreatment btl_pre_torr Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
for BtL technology
Pyrolyse as biomass pretreatment for btl_pre_pyro Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
BtL technology
No biomass pretreatment for BtL btl_pre_none Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
technology
Autothermic BtL technology btl_pro_autoth Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Allothermic BtL technology with btl_pro_alng Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
natural gas as fuel
Allothermic BtL technology with btl_pro_alelec Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
imported electricity as fuel

! ""#!
!

Allothermic BtL technology with btl_pro_alrenew Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)


renewable energy as fuel
BtL technology with tail gas recycled btl_gasrecycl Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
BtL technology with Carbon Capture btl_ccs Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
and Storage
2
Microalgae productivity for G3 biofuel g3_productivity Quantitative (g/(m .day))
Oil content of microalage for G3 g3_oil Quantitative (% dry mass)
biofuel
Open Pond for microalgae cultivation g3_Oppond Binary (=1 if 'open pound'; 0 if
for G3 biofuel "photobioreactor or hybrid")

Geographical location North America zloc_us Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)


of the case study Europe zloc_eu Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Other zloc_other Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Methodological choices
Type of LCA approach Attributionnal LCA lca_att Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Consequential LCA lca_cons Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
System boundaries Well To Tank wtt Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Well To Wheel wtw Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Infrastructures taken into account in infrastruct Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
boundaries
Method for taking into Energetic allocation copval_alloc_ener Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
account coproducts Mass allocation copval_alloc_mass Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Economic allocation copval_alloc_markval Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Exergetic allocation copval_alloc_exerg Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Allocation copval_alloc Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
System expansion copval_systexp Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Hybrid copval_hyb Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Carbon neutral Carbon neutral hypotesis for WTW G3 wtw*g3_carbneut Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
biofuel studies
Characterization Number of greenhouse gases taken gas_num Binary
method for impact into account (=1 if 'number >3'; 0 else)
assessment
Method for taking into Use of IPCC method ass_ipcc Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
account N2O emission
from N input
Method for taking into LUC taken into account luc Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
account Land Use Direct LUC taken into account luc_dir Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Change Indirect LUC taken into account luc_indir Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Method for taking into No method for taking into account uncer_ref Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
account uncertainties uncertainties
Use of Monte Carlo analysis uncer_MC Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Use of sensitivity analysis uncer_SA Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Use of a method for taking into uncer_MCSA Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
account uncertainties
Number and type of Net Energy Value assessed impcat_nev Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
environmental impact Non Renewable Energy Consumption impcat_nrc Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
indicator assessed in assessed
the study Energetic indicator assessed impcat_nrcnev Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)

! "#$!
!

Global Warming indicator assessed impcat_gwp Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)

Other environmental indicator impcat_other Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)


assessed
Number of environmental indicator impcat_all Quantitative (number)
assessed
Typology of the study
Type of study Peer review literature lit_pr Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Official report lit_or Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Directive or Standard lit_dir Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Official report or directive/standard lit_ordir Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)

Working paper lit_wp Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)


Year of publication Year of publication year Quantitative (year)
Year of publication after 2007 year_07 Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Year of publication after 2009 year_09 Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Year of publication after 2010 year_10 Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Geographical location North America zlab_us Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
of authors Europe zlab_eu Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
Other zlab_other Binary (=1 if 'true'; 0 else)
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Geographical location of the Geographical location of
authors assessed pathways
North Europe Other North Europe Other
Weighted by America America
Studies (47) 45% 53% 2% - - -
Observations (593) 32% 67% 1% 34% 64% 2%
!
! !

! "#"!
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# of values mean std dev min max
Descriptive statistics for the Effect Size
Es 593 34.45 89.34 -142.18 1377.90
es_min 593 -11.25 70.81 -352.81 881.44
es_max 593 80.18 155.52 -127.01 1874.37
es_var 593 2264.65 9868.76 0.00 64159.87
es_et 593 23.37 41.49 0.03 253.30
Technical data
gen_2 593 0.87 0.34 0 1
gen_3 593 0.13 0.34 0 1
Etha 593 0.61 0.49 0 1
Btl 593 0.26 0.44 0 1
Fame 593 0.11 0.31 0 1
Hvo 593 0.03 0.16 0 1
mat_algae 593 0.13 0.34 0 1
mat_agrires 593 0.22 0.41 0 1
mat_for 593 0.05 0.22 0 1
mat_enercult 593 0.28 0.45 0 1
mat_farmwood 593 0.10 0.30 0 1
mat_other 593 0.23 0.42 0 1
mat_cult 593 0.38 0.49 0 1
Coprod 593 0.91 0.29 0 1
cop_gly 593 0.09 0.29 0 1
cop_elec 593 0.63 0.48 0 1
cop_heat 593 0.12 0.32 0 1
cop_algmeal 593 0.10 0.30 0 1
cop_biog 593 0.18 0.39 0 1
cop_other 593 0.25 0.54 0 2
cop_otherelec 593 0.48 0.50 0 1
coprod_num 593 1.36 1.00 0 5
mass_yield_exist 593 0.64 0.48 0 1
g2_mass_yield 378 0.22 0.07 0.07 0.50
eth_expl 361 0.08 0.28 0 1
eth_ac 361 0.83 0.37 0 1
eth_amm 361 0.08 0.28 0 1
eth_other 361 0.00 0.00 0 0
btl_pre_torr 153 0.07 0.25 0 1
btl_pre_pyro 153 0.05 0.21 0 1
btl_pre_none 153 0.89 0.32 0 1
btl_pro_autoth 153 0.86 0.35 0 1
btl_pro_alng 153 0.08 0.27 0 1
btl_pro_alelec 153 0.03 0.18 0 1
btl_pro_alrenew 153 0.03 0.16 0 1
btl_gasrecycl 153 0.01 0.11 0 1
btl_ccs 153 0.02 0.14 0 1
g3_productivity 76 30.09 18.86 6.85 150.00
g3_oil 77 0.41 0.11 0.15 0.70
g3_Oppond 77 0.61 0.49 0 1
zloc_us 593 0.34 0.47 0 1

! "##!
!

zloc_eu 593 0.64 0.48 0 1


zloc_other 593 0.02 0.15 0 1
Methodological choices
lca_att 593 0.97 0.17 0 1
lca_cons 593 0.03 0.17 0 1
Wtt 593 0.38 0.49 0 1
Wtw 593 0.62 0.49 0 1
Infrastruct 593 0.44 0.50 0 1
copval_alloc_ener 593 0.26 0.44 0 1
copval_alloc_mass 593 0.04 0.20 0 1
copval_alloc_markval 593 0.12 0.32 0 1
copval_alloc_exerg 593 0.01 0.07 0 1
copval_alloc 593 0.42 0.49 0 1
copval_systexp 593 0.55 0.50 0 1
copval_hyb 593 0.07 0.26 0 1
wtw*g3_carbneut 77 0.00 0.00 0 0
gas_num 394 0.26 0.44 0 1
ass_ipcc 573 0.37 0.48 0 1
Luc 593 0.51 0.50 0 1
luc_dir 593 0.51 0.50 0 1
luc_indir 593 0.03 0.18 0 1
uncer_ref 593 0.57 0.50 0 1
uncer_MC 593 0.10 0.30 0 1
uncer_SA 593 0.38 0.49 0 1
uncer_MCSA 593 0.48 0.50 0 1
impcat_nev 593 0.31 0.46 0 1
impcat_nrc 593 0.41 0.49 0 1
impcat_nrcnev 593 0.50 0.50 0 1
impcat_gwp 593 1.00 0.00 1 1
impcat_other 593 1.09 2.28 0 9
impcat_all 593 2.81 2.43 1 12
Typology of the study
lit_pr 593 0.63 0.48 0 1
lit_or 593 0.09 0.29 0 1
lit_dir 593 0.03 0.17 0 1
lit_ordir 593 0.12 0.32 0 1
lit_wp 593 0.25 0.44 0 1
Year 593 2009.38 1.31 2002 2011
year_07 593 0.97 0.17 0 1
year_09 593 0.90 0.30 0 1
year_10 593 0.56 0.50 0 1
zlab_us 593 0.32 0.47 0 1
zlab_eu 593 0.67 0.47 0 1
zlab_other 593 0.01 0.10 0 1
!
! !

! "#$!
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!"#$%"&'()'*'+',-"-./-.0&%/'1%/23.4-.5%/'46&3'$7829":-.$$6:';<'
# of values mean std dev min max
Descriptive statistics for the Effect Size
Es 77 88.87 211.85 -96.47 1377.90
es_min 77 -46.68 146.41 -352.81 881.44
es_max 77 224.42 351.73 -7.55 1874.37
es_var 77 11898.53 23739.99 265.09 64159.87
es_et 77 69.16 84.91 16.28 253.30
Technical data
gen_2 77 0.00 0.00 0 0
gen_3 77 1.00 0.00 1 1
Etha 77 0.00 0.00 0 0
Btl 77 0.00 0.00 0 0
Fame 77 0.82 0.39 0 1
Hvo 77 0.19 0.40 0 1
mat_algae 77 1.00 0.00 1 1
mat_agrires 77 0.00 0.00 0 0
mat_for 77 0.00 0.00 0 0
mat_enercult 77 0.00 0.00 0 0
mat_farmwood 77 0.00 0.00 0 0
mat_other 77 0.00 0.00 0 0
mat_cult 77 0.00 0.00 0 0
Coprod 77 1.00 0.00 1 1
cop_gly 77 0.71 0.45 0 1
cop_elec 77 0.27 0.45 0 1
cop_heat 77 0.40 0.49 0 1
cop_algmeal 77 0.79 0.41 0 1
cop_biog 77 0.00 0.00 0 0
cop_other 77 0.95 0.93 0 2
cop_otherelec 77 0.87 0.34 0 1
coprod_num 77 2.99 1.71 1 5
mass_yield_exist 77 0.05 0.22 0 1
g3_productivity 76 30.09 18.86 6.85 150.00
g3_oil 77 0.41 0.11 0.15 0.70
g3_Oppond 77 0.61 0.49 0 1
zloc_us 77 0.42 0.50 0 1
zloc_eu 77 0.51 0.50 0 1
zloc_other 77 0.08 0.27 0 1
Methodological choices
lca_att 77 0.92 0.27 0 1
lca_cons 77 0.08 0.27 0 1
Wtt 77 0.65 0.48 0 1
Wtw 77 0.35 0.48 0 1
Infrastruct 77 0.51 0.50 0 1
copval_alloc_ener 77 0.08 0.27 0 1
copval_alloc_mass 77 0.00 0.00 0 0
copval_alloc_markval 77 0.03 0.16 0 1
copval_alloc_exerg 77 0.00 0.00 0 0
copval_alloc 77 0.10 0.31 0 1
copval_systexp 77 0.90 0.31 0 1

! "#$!
!

copval_hyb 77 0.55 0.50 0 1


wtw*g3_carbneut 77 0.00 0.00 0 0
gas_num 77 0.45 0.50 0 1
ass_ipcc 77 0.48 0.50 0 1
Luc 77 0.08 0.27 0 1
luc_dir 77 0.08 0.27 0 1
luc_indir 77 0.08 0.27 0 1
uncer_ref 77 0.39 0.49 0 1
uncer_MC 77 0.00 0.00 0 0
uncer_SA 77 0.61 0.49 0 1
uncer_MCSA 77 0.61 0.49 0 1
impcat_nev 77 0.30 0.46 0 1
impcat_nrc 77 0.40 0.49 0 1
impcat_nrcnev 77 0.70 0.46 0 1
impcat_gwp 77 1.00 0.00 1 1
impcat_other 77 0.66 1.13 0 5
impcat_all 77 2.36 1.38 1 7
Typology of the study
lit_pr 77 0.73 0.45 0 1
lit_or 77 0.00 0.00 0 0
lit_dir 77 0.08 0.27 0 1
lit_ordir 77 0.08 0.27 0 1
lit_wp 77 0.19 0.40 0 1
Year 77 2009.88 0.32 2009 2010
year_07 77 1.00 0.00 1 1
year_09 77 1.00 0.00 1 1
year_10 77 0.88 0.32 0 1
zlab_us 77 0.42 0.50 0 1
zlab_eu 77 0.51 0.50 0 1
zlab_other 77 0.08 0.27 0 1
!
! !

! "#$!
!

!"#$%"&'()'*'+',-"-./-.0&%/'1%/23.4-.5%/'46&3'$7829":-.$$6:';<'
# of values mean std dev min max
Descriptive statistics for the Effect Size
Es 516 26.33 45.20 -142.18 518.40
es_min 516 -5.96 48.83 -307.59 195.45
es_max 516 58.65 77.27 -127.01 841.35
es_var 516 827.04 3582.78 0.00 27149.13
es_et 516 16.54 23.55 0.03 164.77
Technical data
gen_2 516 1.00 0.00 1 1
gen_3 516 0.00 0.00 0 0
Etha 516 0.70 0.46 0 1
Btl 516 0.30 0.46 0 1
Fame 516 0.00 0.00 0 0
Hvo 516 0.00 0.00 0 0
mat_algae 516 0.00 0.00 0 0
mat_agrires 516 0.25 0.43 0 1
mat_for 516 0.06 0.23 0 1
mat_enercult 516 0.32 0.47 0 1
mat_farmwood 516 0.11 0.31 0 1
mat_other 516 0.26 0.44 0 1
mat_cult 516 0.43 0.50 0 1
Coprod 516 0.89 0.31 0 1
cop_gly 516 0.00 0.00 0 0
cop_elec 516 0.69 0.46 0 1
cop_heat 516 0.08 0.27 0 1
cop_algmeal 516 0.00 0.00 0 0
cop_biog 516 0.21 0.41 0 1
cop_other 516 0.15 0.35 0 1
cop_otherelec 516 0.42 0.49 0 1
coprod_num 516 1.12 0.52 0 3
mass_yield_exist 516 0.73 0.44 0 1
g2_mass_yield 378 0.22 0.07 0.07 0.50
eth_expl 361 0.08 0.28 0 1
eth_ac 361 0.83 0.37 0 1
eth_amm 361 0.08 0.28 0 1
eth_other 361 0.00 0.00 0 0
btl_pre_torr 153 0.07 0.25 0 1
btl_pre_pyro 153 0.05 0.21 0 1
btl_pre_none 153 0.89 0.32 0 1
btl_pro_autoth 153 0.86 0.35 0 1
btl_pro_alng 153 0.08 0.27 0 1
btl_pro_alelec 153 0.03 0.18 0 1
btl_pro_alrenew 153 0.03 0.16 0 1
btl_gasrecycl 153 0.01 0.11 0 1
btl_ccs 153 0.02 0.14 0 1
zloc_us 516 0.33 0.47 0 1
zloc_eu 516 0.66 0.48 0 1
zloc_other 516 0.02 0.12 0 1
Methodological choices

! "#$!
!

lca_att 516 0.98 0.14 0 1


lca_cons 516 0.02 0.14 0 1
Wtt 516 0.34 0.47 0 1
Wtw 516 0.66 0.47 0 1
Infrastruct 516 0.43 0.50 0 1
copval_alloc_ener 516 0.28 0.45 0 1
copval_alloc_mass 516 0.05 0.21 0 1
copval_alloc_markval 516 0.13 0.34 0 1
copval_alloc_exerg 516 0.01 0.08 0 1
copval_alloc 516 0.47 0.50 0 1
copval_systexp 516 0.50 0.50 0 1
copval_hyb 516 0.00 0.04 0 1
gas_num 317 0.21 0.41 0 1
ass_ipcc 496 0.35 0.48 0 1
Luc 516 0.58 0.49 0 1
luc_dir 516 0.58 0.49 0 1
luc_indir 516 0.03 0.16 0 1
uncer_ref 516 0.60 0.49 0 1
uncer_MC 516 0.11 0.32 0 1
uncer_SA 516 0.34 0.48 0 1
uncer_MCSA 516 0.46 0.50 0 1
impcat_nev 516 0.31 0.46 0 1
impcat_nrc 516 0.41 0.49 0 1
impcat_nrcnev 516 0.47 0.50 0 1
impcat_gwp 516 1.00 0.00 1 1
impcat_other 516 1.16 2.40 0 9
impcat_all 516 2.87 2.55 1 12
Typology of the study
lit_pr 516 0.61 0.49 0 1
lit_or 516 0.10 0.30 0 1
lit_dir 516 0.02 0.14 0 1
lit_ordir 516 0.12 0.33 0 1
lit_wp 516 0.26 0.44 0 1
Year 516 2009.30 1.38 2002 2011
year_07 516 0.97 0.18 0 1
year_09 516 0.89 0.32 0 1
year_10 516 0.51 0.50 0 1
zlab_us 516 0.31 0.46 0 1
zlab_eu 516 0.69 0.46 0 1
zlab_other 516 0.00 0.00 0 0
!
! !

! "#$!
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!"#$%"&'()'*'+',-"-./-.0&%/'1%/23.4-.5%/'46&3'$7829":-.$$6:'8-9":6$'
# of values mean std dev min max
Descriptive statistics for the Effect Size
Es 361 29.45 48.39 -113.60 518.40
es_min 361 -2.17 51.44 -307.59 195.45
es_max 361 61.12 85.31 -49.54 841.35
es_var 361 941.37 4232.25 0.00 27149.13
es_et 361 16.19 26.10 0.03 164.77
Technical data
gen_2 361 1.00 0.00 1 1
gen_3 361 0.00 0.00 0 0
Etha 361 1.00 0.00 1 1
Btl 361 0.00 0.00 0 0
Fame 361 0.00 0.00 0 0
Hvo 361 0.00 0.00 0 0
mat_algae 361 0.00 0.00 0 0
mat_agrires 361 0.29 0.45 0 1
mat_for 361 0.02 0.13 0 1
mat_enercult 361 0.29 0.45 0 1
mat_farmwood 361 0.10 0.30 0 1
mat_other 361 0.31 0.46 0 1
mat_cult 361 0.39 0.49 0 1
Coprod 361 0.89 0.31 0 1
cop_gly 361 0.00 0.00 0 0
cop_elec 361 0.58 0.49 0 1
cop_heat 361 0.02 0.16 0 1
cop_algmeal 361 0.00 0.00 0 0
cop_biog 361 0.30 0.46 0 1
cop_other 361 0.15 0.36 0 1
cop_otherelec 361 0.46 0.50 0 1
coprod_num 361 1.06 0.49 0 3
mass_yield_exist 361 0.66 0.48 0 1
g2_mass_yield 237 0.25 0.05 0.11 0.50
eth_expl 361 0.08 0.28 0 1
eth_ac 361 0.83 0.37 0 1
eth_amm 361 0.08 0.28 0 1
eth_other 361 0.00 0.00 0 0
zloc_us 361 0.37 0.48 0 1
zloc_eu 361 0.61 0.49 0 1
zloc_other 361 0.02 0.15 0 1
Methodological choices
lca_att 361 0.98 0.14 0 1
lca_cons 361 0.02 0.14 0 1
Wtt 361 0.37 0.48 0 1
Wtw 361 0.63 0.48 0 1
Infrastruct 361 0.45 0.50 0 1
copval_alloc_ener 361 0.34 0.48 0 1
copval_alloc_mass 361 0.04 0.21 0 1
copval_alloc_markval 361 0.07 0.25 0 1
copval_alloc_exerg 361 0.01 0.09 0 1

! "#$!
!

copval_alloc 361 0.47 0.50 0 1


copval_systexp 361 0.52 0.50 0 1
copval_hyb 361 0.00 0.05 0 1
gas_num 205 0.12 0.33 0 1
ass_ipcc 361 0.35 0.48 0 1
Luc 361 0.66 0.48 0 1
luc_dir 361 0.66 0.48 0 1
luc_indir 361 0.03 0.16 0 1
uncer_ref 361 0.54 0.50 0 1
uncer_MC 361 0.13 0.33 0 1
uncer_SA 361 0.38 0.49 0 1
uncer_MCSA 361 0.51 0.50 0 1
impcat_nev 361 0.20 0.40 0 1
impcat_nrc 361 0.34 0.47 0 1
impcat_nrcnev 361 0.37 0.48 0 1
impcat_gwp 361 1.00 0.00 1 1
impcat_other 361 0.89 2.04 0 9
impcat_all 361 2.43 2.11 1 11
Typology of the study
lit_pr 361 0.62 0.49 0 1
lit_or 361 0.03 0.18 0 1
lit_dir 361 0.01 0.12 0 1
lit_ordir 361 0.05 0.21 0 1
lit_wp 361 0.33 0.47 0 1
Year 361 2009.42 1.25 2002 2011
year_07 361 0.96 0.19 0 1
year_09 361 0.94 0.23 0 1
year_10 361 0.48 0.50 0 1
zlab_us 361 0.34 0.48 0 1
zlab_eu 361 0.66 0.48 0 1
zlab_other 361 0.00 0.00 0 0
!
! !

! "#$!
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!"#$%"&'()'*'+',-"-./-.0&%/'1%/23.4-.5%/'46&3'$7829":-.$$6:';!<'
# of values mean std dev min max
Descriptive statistics for the Effect Size
Es 155 19.04 35.78 -142.18 189.00
es_min 155 -14.77 40.94 -204.37 65.53
es_max 155 52.91 53.94 -127.01 334.35
es_var 155 560.76 975.95 0.21 5499.18
es_et 155 17.35 16.17 0.46 74.16
Technical data
gen_2 155 1.00 0.00 1 1
gen_3 155 0.00 0.00 0 0
Etha 155 0.00 0.00 0 0
Btl 155 1.00 0.00 1 1
Fame 155 0.00 0.00 0 0
Hvo 155 0.00 0.00 0 0
mat_algae 155 0.00 0.00 0 0
mat_agrires 155 0.16 0.37 0 1
mat_for 155 0.15 0.36 0 1
mat_enercult 155 0.41 0.49 0 1
mat_farmwood 155 0.13 0.34 0 1
mat_other 155 0.15 0.36 0 1
mat_cult 155 0.54 0.50 0 1
Coprod 155 0.90 0.31 0 1
cop_gly 155 0.00 0.00 0 0
cop_elec 155 0.93 0.26 0 1
cop_heat 155 0.20 0.40 0 1
cop_algmeal 155 0.00 0.00 0 0
cop_biog 155 0.00 0.00 0 0
cop_other 155 0.13 0.34 0 1
cop_otherelec 155 0.33 0.47 0 1
coprod_num 155 1.26 0.56 0 2
mass_yield_exist 155 0.91 0.29 0 1
g2_mass_yield 141 0.16 0.06 0.07 0.42
btl_pre_torr 153 0.07 0.25 0 1
btl_pre_pyro 153 0.05 0.21 0 1
btl_pre_none 153 0.89 0.32 0 1
btl_pro_autoth 153 0.86 0.35 0 1
btl_pro_alng 153 0.08 0.27 0 1
btl_pro_alelec 153 0.03 0.18 0 1
btl_pro_alrenew 153 0.03 0.16 0 1
btl_gasrecycl 153 0.01 0.11 0 1
btl_ccs 153 0.02 0.14 0 1
zloc_us 155 0.23 0.42 0 1
zloc_eu 155 0.77 0.42 0 1
zloc_other 155 0.00 0.00 0 0
Methodological choices
lca_att 155 0.97 0.16 0 1
lca_cons 155 0.03 0.16 0 1
Wtt 155 0.27 0.45 0 1
Wtw 155 0.73 0.45 0 1

! "#$!
!

Infrastruct 155 0.38 0.49 0 1


copval_alloc_ener 155 0.14 0.35 0 1
copval_alloc_mass 155 0.06 0.23 0 1
copval_alloc_markval 155 0.28 0.45 0 1
copval_alloc_exerg 155 0.00 0.00 0 0
copval_alloc 155 0.48 0.50 0 1
copval_systexp 155 0.46 0.50 0 1
copval_hyb 155 0.00 0.00 0 0
gas_num 112 0.38 0.49 0 1
ass_ipcc 135 0.34 0.48 0 1
Luc 155 0.39 0.49 0 1
luc_dir 155 0.39 0.49 0 1
luc_indir 155 0.03 0.16 0 1
uncer_ref 155 0.72 0.45 0 1
uncer_MC 155 0.08 0.27 0 1
uncer_SA 155 0.26 0.44 0 1
uncer_MCSA 155 0.34 0.47 0 1
impcat_nev 155 0.56 0.50 0 1
impcat_nrc 155 0.57 0.50 0 1
impcat_nrcnev 155 0.71 0.46 0 1
impcat_gwp 155 1.00 0.00 1 1
impcat_other 155 1.79 2.99 0 9
impcat_all 155 3.92 3.11 1 12
Typology of the study
lit_pr 155 0.59 0.49 0 1
lit_or 155 0.26 0.44 0 1
lit_dir 155 0.04 0.19 0 1
lit_ordir 155 0.30 0.46 0 1
lit_wp 155 0.11 0.31 0 1
Year 155 2009.01 1.62 2002 2011
year_07 155 0.97 0.18 0 1
year_09 155 0.75 0.44 0 1
year_10 155 0.56 0.50 0 1
zlab_us 155 0.23 0.42 0 1
zlab_eu 155 0.77 0.42 0 1
zlab_other 155 0.00 0.00 0 0
!
!

! !

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!

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NOUVELLES APPROCHES POUR L’ÉVALUATION ENVIRONNEMENTALE DES
BIOCARBURANTS AVANCÉS

RESUME : L’Analyse de Cycle de Vie (ACV) a été explicitement employée, dans le cadre
législatif en Europe et aux Etats-Unis afin de quantifier les bénéfices de filières biocarburants
vis-à-vis des objectifs de réduction d’émissions des gaz à effet de serre (GES) et
d’indépendance énergétique. Nous investiguons, au cours de cette thèse, la concordance du
développement des biocarburants avancés (éthanol lignocellulosique, Biomass to Liquids -
BTL, EMHV/HVO à partir de microalgues) avec ces objectifs par le biais de deux travaux
indépendants. Le premier est une méta-analyse (synthèse de littérature) des études ACV
appliquées aux filières de biocarburants avancés. Dans cette partie de la thèse, en utilisant des
méthodes économétriques, nous identifions et quantifions les facteurs qui impactent le plus les
résultats d’émissions de GES au long du cycle de vie des produits étudiés et calculons
l’intervalle de confiance pour ces résultats. Le deuxième travail est une ACV conséquentielle et
prospective illustrée par une étude de cas concernant l’introduction du BTL en France. Nous
avons adapté un modèle prospectif de type TIMES pour la réalisation d’évaluations
environnementales. De cette façon, nous prenons en compte des mécanismes économiques à
l’origine d’impacts sur d’autres systèmes de la production de biocarburants. Ainsi, nous
contribuons aux développements méthodologiques autour de l’ACV conséquentielle et
prospective avec des discussions sur la définition de l’unité fonctionnelle, la définition des
frontières du système, l’inclusion d’aspects dynamiques dans la caractérisation d’impacts,
l’utilisation de scénarios (différents contextes politiques et économiques) et la réalisation des
analyses de sensibilité sur les frontières du système pour mettre en évidence les