METODOS CON NIVEL

t Dt Metodo de Promedio Simple

1 300.0 Metodo de Promedio Movil Simple (n=?)
2 330.0 Metodo de Promedio Movil Ponderado
3 315.0 SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL SIMPLE
4 297.0
5 295.5
6 280.5
7 322.5 350.0
8 319.5
300.0
9 315.0
10 330.0 250.0
11 279.0
200.0
12 268.5
13 150.0
14
100.0

50.0

0.0
1 2 3 4

Metodo de Promedio Simple

t Dt At Ft et BIAS |et|
1 300.0 300.0
2 330.0 315.0 300.0 30.00 30.00 30.00
3 315.0 315.0 315.0 0.00 15.00 0.00
4 297.0 310.5 315.0 -18.00 4.00 18.00
5 295.5 307.5 310.5 -15.00 -0.75 15.00
6 280.5 303.0 307.5 -27.00 -6.00 27.00
7 322.5 305.8 303.0 19.50 -1.75 19.50
8 319.5 307.5 305.8 13.71 0.46 13.71
9 315.0 308.3 307.5 7.50 1.34 7.50
10 330.0 310.5 308.3 21.67 3.60 21.67
11 279.0 307.6 310.5 -31.50 0.09 31.50
12 268.5 304.4 307.6 -39.14 -3.48 39.14
13 304.4 304.4
14 304.4

Metodo de Promedio Movil Simple (n=3)

t Dt At Ft et BIAS |et|
 1 300.0
2 330.0
3 315.0 315.0
4 297.0 314.0 315.0 -18.00 -18.00 18.00
5 295.5 302.5 314.0 -18.50 -18.25 18.50
6 280.5 291.0 302.5 -22.00 -19.50 22.00
7 322.5 299.5 291.0 31.50 -6.75 31.50
8 319.5 307.5 299.5 20.00 -1.40 20.00
9 315.0 319.0 307.5 7.50 0.08 7.50
10 330.0 321.5 319.0 11.00 1.64 11.00
11 279.0 308.0 321.5 -42.50 -3.88 42.50
12 268.5 292.5 308.0 -39.50 -7.83 39.50
13 292.5
14

Metodo de Promedio Movil Ponderado

𝐴_𝒕=(𝐷_(𝒕−𝟐)∗ω_1 )+(𝐷_
n=3 ω1 0.2 ω2 0.3 ω3 0.5
t Dt At Ft et BIAS |et|
1 300.0
2 330.0
3 315.0 316.5
4 297.0 309.0 316.5 -19.50 -19.50 19.50
5 295.5 299.9 309.0 -13.50 -16.50 13.50
6 280.5 288.3 299.9 -19.35 -17.45 19.35
7 322.5 304.5 288.3 34.20 -4.54 34.20
8 319.5 312.6 304.5 15.00 -0.63 15.00
9 315.0 317.9 312.6 2.40 -0.13 2.40
10 330.0 323.4 317.9 12.15 1.63 12.15
11 279.0 301.5 323.4 -44.40 -4.13 44.40
12 268.5 284.0 301.5 -33.00 -7.33 33.00
13 284.0
14

SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL SIMPLE

𝐴_𝟐=(𝟎,𝟔∗𝟑𝟑𝟎)+((1−𝟎,𝟔)∗𝟑
α 0.7 A0 300.0
t Dt At Ft et BIAS |et|
A0 300.0
A1 1 300.0 300.0
A2 2 330.0 321.0 300.0 30.00 30.00 30.00
A3 3 315.0 319.5 321.0 -6.00 12.00 6.00
A4 4 297.0 302.4 319.5 -22.50 0.50 22.50
A5 5 295.5 296.0 302.4 -6.90 -1.35 6.90
A6 6 280.5 285.0 296.0 -15.45 -4.17 15.45
 A7 7 322.5 309.9 285.0 37.50 2.78 37.50
A8 8 319.5 320.4 309.9 9.60 3.75 9.60
A9 9 315.0 316.4 320.4 -5.40 2.61 5.40
A10 10 330.0 325.5 316.4 13.65 3.83 13.65
A11 11 279.0 294.3 325.5 -46.50 -1.20 46.50
A12 12 268.5 271.7 294.3 -25.80 -3.44 25.80
A13 13 271.7
A14 14

ANALISIS

Metodo de Metodo de Metodo de SUAVIZACIO

Promedio Promedio N
Promedio Movil Movil EXPONENCI
Simple
Simple (n=3) Ponderado AL SIMPLE
335.0
t Dt
300.0 325.0
1 300.0
315.0
2 330.0 300.0 300.0
3 315.0 315.0 321.0 305.0
4 297.0 315.0 315.0 316.5 319.5
295.0
5 295.5 310.5 314.0 309.0 302.4
6 280.5 307.5 302.5 299.9 296.0 285.0
7 322.5 303.0 291.0 288.3 285.0
275.0
8 319.5 305.8 299.5 304.5 309.9
9 315.0 307.5 307.5 312.6 320.4 265.0
1 2 3 4
10 330.0 308.3 319.0 317.9 316.4
11 279.0 310.5 321.5 323.4 325.5 Column C Col

12 268.5 307.6 308.0 301.5 294.3

13 304.4 292.5 284.0 271.7
14

Metodo de Metodo de
Metodo de Metodo de Metodo de Promedio Promedio
Promedio Promedio
ERROR Promedio Movil Movil
Movil Movil
Simple Ponderado Ponderado
Simple (n=3) Simple (n=5)
(n=3) (n=5)

BIAS -3.477765 -7.833333 -7.333333

DAM 20.274301 23.388889 21.500000
 EMC 526.902821 676.250000 616.145000
PEM -0.016593 -0.031519 -0.029438
PEMA 0.068186 0.079834 0.073311
 Chart Title
350.0

300.0

250.0

200.0

150.0

100.0

50.0

0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

DAM et^2 EMC et/Dt PEM |et|/Dt PEMA

30.00 900.00 900.00 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09

15.00 0.00 450.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.05
16.00 324.00 408.00 -0.06 0.01 0.06 0.05
15.75 225.00 362.25 -0.05 -0.01 0.05 0.05
18.00 729.00 435.60 -0.10 -0.02 0.10 0.06
18.25 380.25 426.38 0.06 -0.01 0.06 0.06
17.60 188.08 392.33 0.04 -0.00 0.04 0.06
16.34 56.25 350.32 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.05
16.93 469.44 363.56 0.07 0.01 0.07 0.05
18.39 992.25 426.43 -0.11 -0.00 0.11 0.06
20.27 1531.65 526.90 -0.15 -0.02 0.15 0.07

DAM et^2 EMC et/Dt PEM |et|/Dt PEMA

 18.00 324.00 324.00 -0.06 -0.06 0.06 0.06
18.25 342.25 333.13 -0.06 -0.06 0.06 0.06
19.50 484.00 383.42 -0.08 -0.07 0.08 0.07
22.50 992.25 535.63 0.10 -0.03 0.10 0.07
22.00 400.00 508.50 0.06 -0.01 0.06 0.07
19.58 56.25 433.13 0.02 -0.00 0.02 0.06
18.36 121.00 388.54 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.06
21.38 1806.25 565.75 -0.15 -0.02 0.15 0.07
23.39 1560.25 676.25 -0.15 -0.03 0.15 0.08

∗ω_1 )+(𝐷_(𝒕−1)∗ω_2 )+(𝐷_𝒕∗ω_3 )

Σω 1.00
DAM et^2 EMC et/Dt PEM |et|/Dt PEMA

19.50 380.25 380.25 -0.07 -0.07 0.07 0.07

16.50 182.25 281.25 -0.05 -0.06 0.05 0.06
17.45 374.42 312.31 -0.07 -0.06 0.07 0.06
21.64 1169.64 526.64 0.11 -0.02 0.11 0.07
20.31 225.00 466.31 0.05 -0.01 0.05 0.07
17.33 5.76 389.55 0.01 -0.00 0.01 0.06
16.59 147.62 354.99 0.04 0.00 0.04 0.05
20.06 1971.36 557.04 -0.16 -0.02 0.16 0.07
21.50 1089.00 616.15 -0.12 -0.03 0.12 0.07

)+((1−𝟎,𝟔)∗𝟑𝟎𝟎) 𝐴_𝑡=(𝛼∗𝐷_𝑡 )+((1−𝛼)∗𝐷_(𝑡−1) )

DAM et^2 EMC et/Dt PEM |et|/Dt PEMA 𝐴_𝟏=(𝟎
30.00 900.00 900.00 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09
18.00 36.00 468.00 -0.02 0.04 0.02 0.05
19.50 506.25 480.75 -0.08 -0.00 0.08 0.06
16.35 47.61 372.47 -0.02 -0.01 0.02 0.05
16.17 238.70 345.71 -0.06 -0.02 0.06 0.05
 19.73 1406.25 522.47 0.12 0.01 0.12 0.06
18.28 92.16 461.00 0.03 0.01 0.03 0.06
16.67 29.16 407.02 -0.02 0.01 0.02 0.05
16.33 186.32 382.50 0.04 0.01 0.04 0.05
19.35 2162.25 560.47 -0.17 -0.01 0.17 0.06
19.94 665.64 570.03 -0.10 -0.02 0.10 0.07

Chart Title
335.0

325.0

315.0

305.0

295.0

285.0

275.0

265.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Column C Column D Column E Column F Column G

SUAVIZACION
EXPONENCIAL
SIMPLE

-3.436364
19.936364
570.031364
-0.015867
0.066521
(𝑡−1) )

𝐴_𝟏=(𝟎,𝟔∗𝟑𝟎𝟎)+((1−𝟎,𝟔)∗𝟑𝟎𝟎)
METODOS CON TENDENCIA

t Dt SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL CON AJUSTE A TENDENCIA (α y β)

0 REGRESION LINEAL
1 4868 Promedio Movil Doble (n=3)
2 5112 Suavizacion Exponencial Doble ( alfa 0,6)
3 5415 MINIMOS CUADRADOS
4 5573
5 6038
6 6201 12000
7 6419
10000
8 6729
9 7298
8000
10 8220
11 8955 6000
12 9465
13 10020 4000
14 10725
2000
15
16
0
17 1 2 3 4 5 6
18

𝑨_𝒕=(𝜶∗𝑫_𝒕 )+((𝟏−𝜶)∗(𝑨_
𝑻_𝟏=(𝜷∗(𝑨_𝒕−𝑨_(𝒕−𝟏) ))+((𝟏−

SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL CON AJUSTE A TENDENCIA (α y β)

α 0.3 β 0.8 A0 4868 T0
t Dt At Tt Ft et BIAS
0 4868.00 0.00
1 4868 4868.00 0.00
2 5112 4941.20 58.56 4868.00 244.00 244.00
3 5415 5124.33 158.22 4999.76 415.24 329.62
4 5573 5369.68 227.93 5282.55 290.45 316.56
5 6038 5729.73 333.62 5597.61 440.39 347.52
6 6201 6104.64 366.66 6063.35 137.65 305.55
7 6419 6455.61 354.10 6471.30 -52.30 245.91
8 6729 6785.50 334.73 6809.71 -80.71 199.25
9 7298 7173.56 377.40 7120.23 177.77 196.56
10 8220 7751.67 537.97 7550.96 669.04 249.06
11 8955 8489.25 697.65 8289.64 665.36 290.69
12 9465 9270.33 764.40 9186.90 278.10 289.54
13 10020 10030.31 760.86 10034.73 -14.73 264.19
14 10725 10771.32 744.98 10791.17 -66.17 238.78
1 15 11516.30
2 16 𝑭_𝟏𝟔=𝑨_𝟏𝟒+(𝒕_𝟐∗𝑻_𝟏𝟒 ) 12281.13
3 17 13026.12
4 18 13771.10

REGRESION LINEAL
b 450.030769 a 3841.76923
t Dt Ft et BIAS |et| DAM
0
1 4868 4291.8 576.20 576.20 576.20 576.20
2 5112 4741.83077 370.17 473.18 370.17 473.18
3 5415 5191.86154 223.14 389.84 223.14 389.84
4 5573 5641.89231 -68.89 275.15 68.89 309.60
5 6038 6091.92308 -53.92 209.34 53.92 258.46
6 6201 6541.95385 -340.95 117.62 340.95 272.21
7 6419 6991.98462 -572.98 18.96 572.98 315.18
8 6729 7442.01538 -713.02 -72.53 713.02 364.91
9 7298 7892.04615 -594.05 -130.48 594.05 390.37
10 8220 8342.07692 -122.08 -129.64 122.08 363.54
11 8955 8792.10769 162.89 -103.04 162.89 345.30
12 9465 9242.13846 222.86 -75.89 222.86 335.10
13 10020 9692.16923 327.83 -44.83 327.83 334.54
14 10725 10142.2 582.80 0.00 582.80 352.27
15 10592.2308 -10592.23
16 11042.2615 -11042.26
17 11492.2923 -11492.29
18 11942.3231 -11942.32

Promedio Movil Doble (n=3)

n=3
t Dt At A't at bt Ft
0
1 4868
2 5112
3 5415 5,131.67
4 5573 5,366.67
5 6038 5,675.33 5,391.22 5,959.44 362.67
6 6201 5,937.33 5,659.78 6,214.89 263.67 6,322.11
7 6419 6,219.33 5,944.00 6,494.67 199.67 6,478.56
8 6729 6,449.67 6,202.11 6,697.22 279.33 6,694.33
9 7298 6,815.33 6,494.78 7,135.89 482.67 6,976.56
 10 8220 7,415.67 6,893.56 7,937.78 804.33 7,618.56
11 8955 8,157.67 7,462.89 8,852.44 797.33 8,742.11
12 9465 8,880.00 8,151.11 9,608.89 585.00 9,649.78
13 10020 9,480.00 8,839.22 10,120.78 540.00 10,193.89
14 10725 10,070.00 9,476.67 10,663.33 655.00 10,660.78
1 15 11,318.33
2 16 11,970.78
3 17 12,625.78
4 18 13,280.78
TENDENCIA (α y β)

Chart Title
12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

𝑫_𝒕 )+((𝟏−𝜶)∗(𝑨_(𝒕−𝟏)+𝑻_(𝒕−𝟏) ))
𝑭_𝒕=𝑨_(𝒕−𝟏)+𝑻_(𝒕−𝟏)
(𝑨_𝒕−𝑨_(𝒕−𝟏) ))+((𝟏−𝜷)∗𝑻_(𝒕−𝟏) )

0
|et| DAM et^2 EMC et/Dt PEM |et|/Dt PEMA

244.00 244.00 59536.00 59536.00 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

415.24 329.62 172424.26 115980.13 0.08 0.06 0.08 0.06
290.45 316.56 84361.43 105440.56 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.06
440.39 347.52 193942.99 127566.17 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.06
137.65 305.55 18948.49 105842.63 0.02 0.05 0.02 0.05
52.30 263.34 2735.14 88658.05 -0.01 0.04 0.01 0.05
80.71 237.25 6514.65 76923.28 -0.01 0.04 0.01 0.04
177.77 229.81 31601.27 71258.03 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.04
669.04 278.62 447614.34 113075.40 0.08 0.04 0.08 0.04
665.36 317.29 442705.23 146038.38 0.07 0.04 0.07 0.05
278.10 313.73 77339.12 139792.99 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.05
14.73 288.81 216.91 128161.65 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.04
66.17 271.69 4378.76 118639.89 -0.01 0.03 0.01 0.04
 𝑭_𝟏=𝒂+(𝒃∗𝒕_𝟏 )

et^2 EMC et/Dt PEM |et|/Dt PEMA

Chart
332006.44 332006.44 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12
137025.26 234515.85 0.07 0.10 0.07 0.10 12000

49790.77 172940.82 0.04 0.08 0.04 0.08

10000
4746.15 130892.16 -0.01 0.05 0.01 0.06
2907.70 105295.26 -0.01 0.04 0.01 0.05
f(x) = 450.0307692
116249.53 107120.97 -0.05 0.03 0.05 0.05
8000
R² = 0.9510677608
328311.37 138719.60 -0.09 0.01 0.09 0.06 6000
508390.94 184928.52 -0.11 0.00 0.11 0.06
352890.83 203591.00 -0.08 -0.01 0.08 0.06 4000
14902.78 184722.18 -0.01 -0.01 0.01 0.06
2000
26533.90 170341.42 0.02 -0.01 0.02 0.06
49667.27 160285.24 0.02 -0.01 0.02 0.05
0
107473.01 156222.76 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.05 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
339655.84 169325.13 0.05 0.00 0.05 0.05

et BIAS |et| DAM et^2 EMC et/Dt PEM

- 121.11 - 121.11 121.11 121.11 14,667.90 14,667.90 - 0.02 - 0.02

- 59.56 - 90.33 59.56 90.33 3,546.86 9,107.38 - 0.01 - 0.01
34.67 - 48.67 34.67 71.78 1,201.78 6,472.18 0.01 - 0.01
321.44 43.86 321.44 134.19 103,326.53 30,685.77 0.04 0.01
 601.44 155.38 601.44 227.64 361,735.42 96,895.70 0.07 0.02
212.89 164.96 212.89 225.19 45,321.68 88,300.03 0.02 0.02
- 184.78 115.00 184.78 219.41 34,142.83 80,563.29 - 0.02 0.01
- 173.89 78.89 173.89 213.72 30,237.35 74,272.54 - 0.02 0.01
64.22 77.26 64.22 197.11 4,124.49 66,478.32 0.01 0.01
 Chart Title

= 450.03076923 x + 3841.7692308
= 0.951067760813141

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

𝐴_𝑡=(𝐷_(𝑡−2)+𝐷_(𝑡−1)+𝐷_𝑡)/𝑛
|et|/Dt PEMA

𝑨_𝒕^′=(𝑨_(𝑡−2)+𝑨_(𝑡−1)+𝑨_𝑡)/𝑛

𝑎_𝑡=(2∗𝐴_𝑡 )−𝐴_𝑡^′

0.02 0.02
𝑏_𝑡=(2/(𝑛−1))∗(𝐷_𝑡−𝐴_𝑡 )
0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01
0.04 0.02 𝑭_𝟏𝟔=𝒂_𝟏𝟒+(𝒕_𝟐∗𝒃_𝟏𝟒 )
 𝑭_𝟏𝟔=𝒂_𝟏𝟒+(𝒕_𝟐∗𝒃_𝟏𝟒 )
0.07 0.03
0.02 0.03
0.02 0.03
0.02 0.03
0.01 0.02
METODOS ESTACIONALES

Año Trimestre Dt HWA

I 225 Winters Multiplicativo
II 382.5 Winters Aditivo
2007
III 412.5
IV 372
I 211.5
II 369
2008
III 400.5 800
IV 390 700
I 210.75
600
II 384
2009
III 448.2 500
IV 430.5 400
I 262.5
300
II 450
2010
III 590.25 200
IV 606.45 100
I 285
0
II 477 I II III IV I II III
2011
III 696.9
IV 719.55
 Chart Title
800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV