Tarbela reservoir, Pakistan: A region of

compressional tectonics with reduced seismicity

upon initial reservoir filling

Abstract
The Tarbela reservoir is located on the Indus River in the lesser Himalayas of northern Pakistan,
a region of considerable natural seismicity. A microseismic survey conducted prior to impounding
has indicated that crustal shortening under horizontal north-south compression dominates
present-day tectonics, resulting in thrusting and strike-slip motion along numerous faults.

The reservoir was first partially filled for a few weeks in 1974 and then completely filled in 1975. In
both cases, the microseismic activity decreased slightly during the impounding period and
recovered quickly upon commencement of drainage or establishment of a constant reservoir
level. In tectonic environments where the maximum principal stress is horizontal and the tectonic
system is compressive, a vertical surface load can move the crustal stresses away from a Navier-
Coulomb failure criterion, and hence can temporarily decrease seismicity. The observed rapid
recovery of seismicity may alternately be explained by: (1) high rates of tectonic strain
accumulation which, in turn, increase horizontal stresses at crustal depths; they may quickly
overcome the stabilizing effects of the small vertical stress changes and increased friction across
faults from reservoir loading and, hence, may return the crustal stress system to one of failure; or
(2) high diffusivity of the basement rock results in a pore pressue increase after a few weeks of
raised reservoir head; the raised pore pressure equally reduces the effective horizontal and
vertical stresses and brings the crustal system back to failure. Since direct monitoring of pore
pressure at crustal depths is not available at Trabela, it is presently not possible to distinguish
between the two alternatives. Indirect observations, such as long-term monitoring of space-time
changes in seismicity, may aid in the resolution of this ambiguity.

A few reservoirs, located in regions with preferentially extensional or pure strike-slip tectonics,
have triggered or induced seismic activity, whereas Tarbela reservoir, in a region of convergent
tectonics, has (to present) only slightly modified the natural seismicity. Here, in a region of active
Himalayan tectonics, it is likely that any severe earthquake to occur in the near future would occur
sooner or later, regardless of the presence of the reservoir. Within hundreds of years a major
earthquake near Tarbela appears tectonically inevitable. Yet the presence of the reservoir may
strongly affect, say, the time of occurrence, exact location, and the details of rupture of an
earthquake. The time most likely for inducing a tectonic stress release (if any) would be during or
shortly after a rapid draw-down of the reservoir, when the decrease in pore pressure from its high
level at crustal depths lags behind the instantaneous stress decrease from reservoir unloading.