VIII Tavi

SerCeva da SerCevis
dizainebi

SerCevis miznebi
populacia
SerCevis erTeuli
sazRvruli da ganusazRvreli SerCeva
SerCevis struqtura
Secdoma SerCevis struqturaSi: 1936 wlis
saprezidento arCevnebi
SerCevis dizainebi
albaTuri da araalbaTuri SerCeva
araalbaTuri SerCevis dizainebi
albaTuri SerCevis dizainebi
albaTuri SerCeva: daskvnebi
albaTuri SerCeva: magaliTi
SerCevis moculoba
standartuli Secdoma
sandoobis intervali
SerCevis moculobis gansazRvra
araSerCeviTi Secdomebi
258

winaswari polebi, romlebic arCevnebis Sedegebis prognozirebi­

saTvis tardeba Zalian popularulia. 1992 wlis kampaniis dros am
polebma mniSvnelovnad gazarda klintonis maCvenebeli da Seamcira
pirotis Zala. ras gveubneba Sefasebis es uzustobebi polebis Cat­
arebisa da SerCevis gamoyenebuli dizainebis Sesaxeb? imis gamokvle­
viT, rogor Catarda es winaswari polebi, riCard laum gamoitana ramde­
nime mniSvnelovani meTodologiuri daskvna zogadad polebis Sesaxeb.1
laus mixedviT, Secdomebi da SedegebSi variaciebi Semdegi mizezebis
gamo Cndeba: SerCevis arakonsistenturi moculoba; SerCevis struqtu­
raSi specifikuri populacia moicavda, magaliTad, `registrirebul
amomrCevlebs~ `albaTuri amomrCevlebis~ winaaRmdeg; arakonsisten­
turad gansazRvruli pasuxgaucemlobis koeficienti, gansakuTrebiT
imis gamo, rom dRis dro an kviris dRe, rodesac poli tardeba, mniS­
vnelovnad zRudavs garkveuli jgufebis CarTvas polebSi; `jer ver
CamoyalibebulTa~ proporcia; amgvar Secdomebze gavlenas axdens
isic, arCevnebamde ramdeni dRiT adre Catarda poli. Tu es faqtorebi
gavlenas axdens winaswar gamokiTxvaze, ramdenad axdenen isini gavle­
nas sxva movlenebze, rasac SerCevis gamoyenebiT vikvlevT?
faqtorebi, romlebic laum gamoacalkeva, exeba SerCevis Sedge­
nis problemas da warmoadgens populacia, romlis Seswavlac surT
­mkvlevrebs. es problemebi am Tavis Seswavlis sagania.

a m TavSi Cven SevexebiT SerCevis Teoriis safuZvlebs, rogor da

ratom unda Sedges SerCeva. pirvel nawilSi ganvixilavT SerCevis
miznebs. Semdeg gadavalT centraluri cnebebis _ populaciis, SerCe­
vis erTeulis, SerCevis struqturisa da SerCevis _ ganmartebasa da
ganxilvaze, aseve albaTuri da araalbaTuri SerCevis dizainebis pro­
cedurebze. amis Semdeg ganvixilavT SerCevis moculobis gansazRvris
logikas. dabolos, warmogidgenT araSerCeviTi Secdomis Sefasebis
procedurebs.
mkvlevrebi monacemebs agroveben imisaTvis, rom Seamowmon hipo­
Tezebi da uzrunvelyon empiriuli masala axsnisa da prognozisaTvis.
mas Semdeg, rac mkvlevrebi TavianT sazom instruments aageben, raTa
Seagrovon sakvlevi problemis Sesabamisi sakmarisi monacemebi, Sesa­
Zlebeli unda iyos amis momyoli axsnisa da prognozebis ganzogadeba
mecnierul doneze. rogorc pirvel TavSi aRvniSneT (naxazi 1.1), gan­
zogadeba kvlevis procesis mTavari safexuria. ganzogadebebi mniS­

1. Richard R. Lau, “An Analysis of the Accuracy of “Trial Heat’ Polls During the 1992 Presidential Election, “
Public Opinion Quarterly, 58 (1994) : 2-20
 II nawili kvlevis dizaini da struqtura 259

vnelovania ara marto hipoTezebis Semowmebis TavlsazrisiT, aramed

aRweriTi miznebisTvisac. magaliTad, iseTi kiTxvebi, rogoricaa `ra
doneze dgas politikuri ndoba amerikelebs Soris?~ an `arian Tu ara
amomrCevlebi dRes ufro metad CarTulni garemos sakiTxeSi, vidre
aTiode wlis win?~, moiTxovs aRweriT ganzogadebas.
rogorc wesi, ganzogadeba ar emyareba monacemebis Segrovebas yve­
la dakvirvebidan, yvela respondentisagan, yvela movlenisagan, rac
sakvlevi problemiT ganisazRvreba. amis nacvlad, mkvlevrebi iyeneben
SemTxvevaTa mcire raodenobas (SerCevas), rogorc daskvnebis gakeTebis
safuZvels yvela SesaZlo SemTxvevis Sesaxeb (populacia). arCevnebis
polebi cnobili magaliTia. respondentTa SedarebiT mcire jgufis
pasuxebze dayrdnobiT, sazogadoebrivi azris mkvlevrebi winaswarm­
etyveleben, rogor miscems xmas amomrCevelTa mTeli populacia, Tu
arCevnebi Catardeba im dros, roca poli Catarda. isini aseve cdiloben
gaakeTon prognozi, rogor miscemen xmas es amomrCevlebi, roca arCev­
nebi namdvilad Catardeba. socialuri mecnierebis warmomadgenlebi,
iseve, rogorc sazogadoebrivi azris mkvlevrebi, SerCevis Sedgenisas
sxvadasxva kriteriums iyeneben. es msjelobebi Tavis mxriv gavlenas
axdens maT mier SerCevidan populaciis Sesaxeb gamo­tanil daskvnebi.

SerCevis miznebi
empiriulad dadasturebuli ganzogadeba, Cveulebriv, nawilob­
riv informacias eyrdnoba, radgan, rogorc zemoT aRvniSneT, xSirad
SeuZlebeli, arapraqtikuli da gansakuTrebiT Zviria monacemebis
­Segroveba analizis yvela erTeulidan, romelsac sakvlevi problema
moicavs. mkvlevrebs SeuZliaT zusti daskvnebi gamoitanon yvela er­
Teulis Sesaxeb (jgufi) SedarebiT mcire raodenobis erTeulebze
(subjgufi) dayrdnobiT, rodesac subjgufebi zustad warmoadgens
mTeli jgufis relevantur Taviseburebebs. marketingis mkvlevrebi,
magaliTad, eyrdnobian axal produqtze SedarebiT mcire raodenobis
ojaxebis mier gakeTebul arCevans, raTa gansazRvron am produqtis
moxmarebis done milionobiT momxmareblisaTvis. garemos dacvis saa­
gento iyenebs sxvadasxva modelis mcire raodenobiT avtomobilebs,
raTa Seagrovos monacemebi maTi funqcionirebis Sesaxeb. monacemebi,
romlebic Segrovilia subjgufidan, gamoiyeneba yvela avtomobilis
funqcionirebis standartebis gansaszRvrisa da regulirebisaTvis.
analizis relevanturi erTeulebis mTliani jgufi an monacemebi
aris populacia. rodesac monacemebi asrulebs ganzogadebis funqcias
260

da Sedgeba populaciis subjgufisagan, am subjgufs SerCeva ewodeba.

populaciis konkretuli mniSvneloba, magaliTad, medianuri Semosava­
li an oficialuri ganaTlebis done, aris parametri. SerCevaSi misi
Sesatyvisi, aris statistika. SerCevis Teoriis mTavari mizania parame­
trebis ucnobi mniSvnelobebisTvis zusti Sefasebis uzrunvelyofa
SerCevis statistikidan, rac advilad SeiZleba gamoiTvalos.
imisaTvis, rom zustad Seafason ucnobi parametrebi cnobili
statistikuri monacemebidan, mkvlevrebi efeqturad unda gaumklavd­
nen mTavar problemebs: (1) populaciis gansazRvra, (2) SerCevis dizaini
da (3) SerCevis moculoba.

populacia
meTodologiurad, populacia aris `yvela SemTxvevis agregati,
romelic aRniSnul specifikacias emorCileba~.2 magaliTad, specifi­
kaciiT `xalxi~ da `britaneTSi cxovreba~, Cven SegviZlia ganvsazRv­
roT populacia, romelic moicavs yvela adamians, romelic cxovrobs
britaneTSi. aseve, `studentebisa~ da `SeerTebuli Statebis univer­
sitetSi aRricxviT~, SegviZlia ganvsazRvroT populacia, romelic
moicavs yvela students, romelic iricxeba SeerTebul StatebSi.
aseve SegiZliaT gansazRvroT populaciebi, romlebic moicavs yve­
la ojaxs mocemul dasaxlebaSi, yvela registrirebul amomrCevels
konkretul saarCevno ubanze, yvela wigns sajaro biblioTekaSi da a. S.
populacia SeiZleba Sedgebodes yvela macxovreblisagan konkretul
ubanSi, kanonmdeblisagan, saxlisagan, Canawerebisagan da a.S. popula­
ciis specifikuri buneba damokidebulia sakvlev problemaze. Tu Tqven
ikvlevT momxmareblis qcevas konkretul qalaqSi, Tqven SegiZliaT
gansazRvroT populacia, rogorc yvela ojaxi am qalaqSi. an Tu Tqven
fokusirebuli xarT konkretul produqtze, vTqvaT, ZaRlebis sakve­
bze, Tqvens populaciaSi Seva mxolod is ojaxebi, romelTac ZaRlebi
hyavT.
amdenad, erT-erTi mTavari problema mkvlevrisTvis, romelsac
surs populaciis mniSvnelobis Sefaseba SerCevis mniSvnelobidan, aris
saWiro populaciis gansazRvra. Tu politikuri mecnieri dainterese­
bulia xmis micemis qceviT britaneTSi da surs Seadginos SerCeva ise,
rom gaakeTos prognozi arCevnebis Sedegebis Taobaze, SerCevaSi unda
gamoiricxos 18 wlamde asakis macxovreblebi, radgan maT ar aqvT xmis

2. Isidor Chein, “ An Introduction to Sampling.” in Claire Selitz, et.al., Research Methods in Social Relations, 4
th ed. ( New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1981),p. 419.
 II nawili kvlevis dizaini da struqtura 261

micemis ufleba. miuxedavad amisa, `britaneTis yvela 18 wlis da ufro­

si moqalaqe~ jer kidev araadekvaturi ganmartebaa amomrCevelTa
populaciisaTvis, radgan sanam arCevnebi Catardeba, individebi unda
akmayofilebdnen garkveul, kanoniT gaTvaliswinebul moTxovnebs. in­
dividebi, romlebic ver akmayofileben am kriteriumebs, ver miscemen
xmas. amdenad, isini unda gamoiricxon populaciis SerCevidan. popula­
cia Sesabamisad unda ganimartos (1) Sinaarsis, (2) sivrcisa da (3) drois
terminebSi, magaliTad (a) 18 wlis asaks miRweuli da am asaks zemoT yve­
la moqalaqe, mcxovrebi mudmiv sacxovrebel erTeulebSi, (b) inglisSi,
(g) 1995 wlis pirveli maisisaTvis.

SerCevis erTeuli
populaciis SerCevis erTi wevri (magaliTad, amomrCeveli, ojaxi,
movlena) aris SerCevis erTeuli. Cveulebriv, SerCevis erTeulebs mTe­
li rigi Taviseburebebi aqvT, romelTagan erTi an meti aris sakvlevi
problemis relevanturi. magaliTad, Tu populacia ganisazRvreba,
rogorc yoveli mesameklaseli mocemul qalaqSi, romelic mivida sa­
jaro skolaSi konkretul dRes, SerCevis erTeuli aris yoveli mesame­
klaseli. miuxedavad amisa, mesameklaselebs aqvT mravali sxva Tavise­
bureba (cvladi), maT Soris, qulebi, Cvevebi, mosazrebebi, molodinebi.
kvlevis proeqti SeiZleba amowmebdes mxolod erT cvlads, magaliTad,
qulebs ariTmetikaSi an mimarTebebs ramdenime cvlads Soris, magali­
Tad, ariTmetikis qulebs, IQ maCveneblebsa da mSoblebis oficialur
ganaTlebas Soris.
SerCevis erTeuli aucileblobiT ar aris individi. es SeiZleba
iyos movlena, universiteti, qalaqi an eri. magaliTad, eris SigniT da
erebs Soris konfliqturi qcevis kvlevaSi, rudolf ramelma 3 wlis
manZilze 22 gazomviT Seagrova 77 eris sagareo da saSinao konfliqtu­
ri qcevebis (rogoricaa mkvlelobebi, partizanuli omebi, wmenda, bun­
tebi, revoluciebi, samxedro qmedebebi, omebi) monacemebi.3 mis kvl­
evaSi SerCevis erTeulebia erebi, magram SerCeva nebismieri ar yofila.
SerCevis erTeulebs unda daekmayofilebinaT ori kriteriumi, raTa
moxvedriliyvnen kvlevaSi: (1) unda hqonodaT suverenuli saxelmwifo
sul mcire ori wlis ganmavlobaSi, es unda daedasturebina diploma­
tiur urTierTobebs sxva qveynebTan da sagareo saqmeTa saministros
arsebobas da (2) qveynis mosaxleoba unda yofiliyo minimum 800 000.

3. Rudolph J.Rummel, “ Dimensions of Conflict Behavior within and between Nations ,” in Macro quantitative
Analysis : Conflict, Development and Democratization, ed. J.V. Gillespie and H. A. Nesvold ( Newbury Park,
Calif.: Sage, 1971).
262

sazRvruli da ganusazRvreli SerCeva

populacia SeiZleba iyos sazRvruli an ganusazRvreli, imisda
mixedviT, aris Tu ara SerCevis erTeuli sazRvruli an ganusazRvreli.
ganmartebisTvis: sazRvruli populacia moicavs SerCevis erTeulebis
Tvlad raodenobas, magaliTad, yvela registrirebul amomrCevels
konkretul qalaqSi mocemul wels. ganusazRvreli populacia Sedgeba
SerCevis erTeulebis usasrulo raodenobisagan, magaliTad, monetis
agdebis SeuzRudavi raodenoba. SerCevas, romelic Sedgenilia infor­
maciis misaRebad sazRvruli populaciis konkretuli maxasiaTeblebis
Sesaxeb, mimoxilviTi SerCeva ewodeba.

SerCevis sistema
mas Semdeg, rac mkvlevari gansazRvravs populacias, igi Seadgens
SerCevas, romelic adekvaturad warmoadgens populacias. realuri
procedurebi moicavs SerCevis agebas SerCevis struqturidan, ro­
melic Sedgeba SerCevis erTeulebis sruli CamonaTvalisgan. idealur
SemTxvevaSi, SerCevis struqtura unda moicavdes SerCevis yvela er­
Teuls populaciaSi. praqtikaSi, es CamonaTvali iSviaTad Tu arse­
bobs. Cveulebriv mkvlevrebi adgenen Semcvlel sias. magaliTad, did
erovnul kvlevebSi SeuZlebelia SeerTebuli Statebis macxovreb­
lebis sruli da zusti CamonaTvalis mopoveba. am sirTules regu­
larulad awydebian iseTi didi kvleviTi organizaciebic, rogoricaa
aRweris biuro, romelic aRricxavs mTel ers yovel aTwleulSi. 1990
wlis aRwera, romelic 2,6 miliardi dolari dajda, moiTxovda 277 mil­
ion formas. aRweris biurom Seagrova 3,3 miliardi individualuri pa­
suxi, romlebic damuSavda aRweris daaxloebiT 480 000 TanamSromlis
mier 1988-1991 wlebSi.
am TanamSromlebma Seagroves da Seamowmes misamarTebis CamonaT­
valebi, moiZies da daamuSaves yofiTi informacia daaxloebiT 250 mi­
lioni adamianisa da 106 milioni dasaxlebuli erTeulis Sesaxeb SeerTe­
bul Statebsa da mis teritoriebSi. aRweris biurom 1988-1989 wlebSi
aseve daiqirava 35 000 droebiTi TanamSromeli kardakar sasiarulod
dasaxlebul erTeulebSi. maT Seadgines sia 43 milioni misamarTisa
dasaxlebul erTeulebSi, romelTagan bevri dedaqalaqis midamoebis
miRma iyo. amas garda, aRweris biurom moipova 55 milioni sacxovre­
beli misamarTi dedaqalaqis did raionebSi komerciuli safosto kom­
paniebisagan.4 mTeli am Zalisxmevis miuxedavad, gakeTebuli SefasebiT,

4. F rom Census ’90 Basics ( U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, December 1985), p.1.
 II nawili kvlevis dizaini da struqtura 263

aRweraSi ver moxvda daaxloebiT xuTi milioni macxovrebeli, ramde­

nadac, iseve rogorc 1980 wlis aRwerisas, mzardi moZravi cxovrebis
stili SeerTebul StatebSi arTulebda sruli safosto siis Sedgenas.
ufro mcire moculobis kvlevebSi SerCevis struqtura SeiZleba
emyarebodes satelefono cnobarebs, qalaqis cnobarebs, an kerZo da
sajaro organizaciebis sawevro siebs.
mkvlevari darwmunebuli unda iyos, rom arsebobs maRali Sesaba­
misoba SerCevis struqturasa da SerCeviT populacias Soris. SerCevis
sizuste, pirvel rigSi, SerCevis struqturazea damokidebuli. marT­
lac, SerCevis struqtura gavlenas axdens SerCevis dizainis yovel
aspeqtze (populacia, romelsac vswavlobT, SerCevis safexurebi, Ser­
Cevis realuri procesi). SerCevis Sedgenamde mkvlevarma unda Seafasos
SerCevis struqtura misi potenciuri problemebis gaTvaliswinebiT.
lesli kiSi gvaZlevs SerCevis struqturisaTvis damaxasiaTebeli ti­
puri problemebis sasargeblo klasifikacias: arasruli SerCevis
struqtura, klasterebi da elementebi, uSinaarso ucxo elementebi.

arasruli struqturebi. arasruli SerCevis struqturebis prob­

lema dgeba maSin, rodesac realuri populaciis Semadgeneli SerCevis
erTeulebi gamotovebulia siidan. magaliTad, Tu populacia moicavs
dasaxlebis yvela axal macxovrebels, SerCevis struqtura, romelic
realur uZravi qonebis serviss emyareba, arasruli iqneba, ramdenadac
es servisi aRricxavs mxolod saxlebis axal mflobelebs (gamyidve­
lebs, myidvelebs) da ar moicavs damqiraveblebs.5
rodesac SerCevis struqtura arasrulia, erTi arCevani SeiZleba
iyos damatebiTi siebi. magaliTad, SeiZleba Sedges dasaxlebis yoveli
axali damqiraveblis sia qalaqis cnobaris daxmarebiT, Tu igi iseve av­
lens dasaxlebis axal macxovreblebs, rogorc saxlis mflobelebsa da
damqiraveblebs.

klasterebi da elementebi. SerCevis struqturasTan dakavSire­

biT meore potenciuri problema aris klasterebi da elementebi. es
problema maSin Cndeba, rodesac SerCevis erTeulebi CamoTvlilia upi­
ratesad klasterebis (fenebis) da ara individualuri saxiT. maga­liTad,
SerCevis struqtura SeiZleba Sedgebodes qalaqis masivebisagan, rode­
sac kvleva fokusirebulia individebze. mkvlevrisaTvis am problemis
Se­saZlo gadawyveta iqneba masivebis SerCevis aReba da Semdeg TiToeu­
li masivis macxovrebelTa CamonaTvalis gakeTeba. Semdeg mkvlevari

5. L eslie Kish, Survey Sampling ( New York: Wiley, 1965), sect. 2.7
264

SearCevs individebs TiToeuli ojaxidan (ojaxebis umetesoba moicavs

erTze met individs) winaswar gansazRvruli kriteriumis mixedviT, ma­
galiTad, 18 welze ufrosi asakis individebi an ojaxis ufrosebi).

uSinaarso ucxo elementebi. uSinaarso ucxo elementebis prob­

lema sakmaod gavrcelebulia. igi maSin Cndeba, rodesac SerCevis
struqturaSi Semavali SerCevis erTeulebi, realurad ar Sedian sakv­
lev populaciaSi. magaliTad, rodesac populacia ganisazRvreba, ro­
gorc xmis micemis uflebis mqone yvela adamianis erToba, SerCevis
struqtura ki moicavs adamianebs, romlebic jer patarebi arian sai­
misod, rom es ufleba hqondeT. aseTi problema xSirad wamoiWreba ma­
Sin, rodesac gamoyenebuli siebi moZvelebulia.
meore magaliTi imisa, rodis Cndeba aseTi problema, aris is Sem­
Txveva, rodesac mkvlevrebi iyeneben qalaqis cnobarebs da rodesac
siebi, marTalia, iZleva misamarTebs, magram ar asaxelebs am misamarTze
macxovreblebs. es aucileblobiT ar niSnavs imas, rom am misamarTebze
aravin cxovrobs. macxovrebeli SeiZleba iq axali gadasuli iyos da
jer kidev periodul siaSi iricxebodes. aseTi SemTxvevebi unda CavT­
valoT uSinaarsod da gamovricxoT SerCevidan. kargi gamosavalia, Tu
sawyisi SerCeva ufro didi iqneba, raTa SemdegSi gvqondes am gamoricx­
uli SemTxvevebis kompensirebis SesaZlebloba.

Secdomebi SerCevis struqturaSi: 1936 wlis

saprezidento arCevnebi
Cveni msjeloba SerCevis struqturaSi daSvebuli Secdomebis Ses­
axeb arasruli iqneba, Tu ar gavixsenebT SerCevis marcxis yvelasaTvis
kargad cnobil magaliTs, romelsac 1936 wels gazeT `literaturul
daijestSi~ hqonda adgili. 1936 wels franklin dilano ruzvelti,
romelsac ukve dasrulebuli hqonda prezidentobis pirveli vada,
SeerTebuli Statebis prezidentis postis dasakaveblad ebrZoda re­
spublikelTa kandidats, alf lendons kanzasidan. gazeTi `liter­
aturuli daijesti~ polSi, romelic moicavda daaxloebiT 2,4 milion
individs _ aSS-is istoriaSi yvelaze did raodenobas, winaswarm­
etyvelebda lendonis gamarjvebas 57%-iT 43%-iT winaaRmdeg. miuxe­
davad am prognozisa, ruzveltma arCevnebSi didi sxvaobiT gaimarjva,
62%-iT 38%-is winaaRmdeg.6

6. D avid Freedman, Robert Pisani, and Roger Purves, Statistics ( New York: Norton, 1978), pp. 302-307.
 II nawili kvlevis dizaini da struqtura 265

SerCevis didi moculobis miuxedavad, Secdoma eniT auwereli

iyo. es iyo yvelaze didi Secdoma, rac ki polebis Semdgenel orga­
nizaciebs dauSviaT. daijestma kiTxvarebi daugzavna aT milion ada­
mians, romelTa saxelebi da misamarTebi aiRes satelefono cnobarebi­
dan da klubebis sawevro siebidan. 1936 wels RaribTagan cota adamians
Tu hqonda telefoni, isini arc klubebis wevrebi iyvnen. amdenad, Ser­
Cevis struqtura arasruli iyo, ramdenadac igi gamoricxavda Rari­
bebs. es danaklisi gansakuTrebiT mniSvnelovani iyo, radgan 1936 wels,
swored Raribebma gazardes ruzveltis Sedegi, SeZlebuli mosaxleoba
ki lendons aZlevda xmas.7 e.i. SerCevis struqtura zustad ar asaxavda
realur amomrCevelTa populacias.

SerCevis dizainebi
zemoT ganvixileT populaciis gansazRvrasa da SerCevis struqtu­
rasTan dakavSirebuli SerCevis problemebi. SerCevis meore problema
warmoiqmneba maSin, rodesac mkvlevrebi cdiloben reprezentatuli
SerCevis Sedgenas. nebismieri SerCevis arsebiTi moTxovna aris is, rom
igi, ramdenadac SesaZlebelia, reprezentatuli iyos im populaciisa,
romlis safuZvelzec dgeba. SerCeva iTvleba reprezentatulad, Tu
mkvlevris mier SerCevis erTeulebis gamoyenebiT gakeTebuli ana­
lizis Sedegebi im Sedegebis igiveobrivia, romelsac miviRebdiT, Tu
mkvlevari mTel populacias gaaanalizebda.

albaTuri da araalbaTuri SerCevebi

SerCevis Tanamedrove TeoriaSi, ZiriTadad ganasxvaveben albaTur
da araalbaTur SerCevas. albaTuri SerCevis ganmasxvavebeli Tavise­
bureba aris is, rom populaciis TiToeuli SerCeviTi erTeulisaTvis
SegviZlia ganvsazRvroT imis albaToba, rom es erTeuli SerCevaSi mox­
vdeba. yvelaze martiv magaliTSi yovel erTeuls aqvs SerCevaSi moxve­
dris erTnairi albaToba. araalbaTur SerCevaSi ar arsebobs TiToeuli
erTeulis SerCevaSi CarTvis SesaZleblobis albaTobis gansazRvris
gza da imis mtkicebis safuZveli, rom TiToeul erTeuls aqvs SerCev­
aSi moxvedris Tanabari Sansi. Tu garkveul erTeulebs ar aqvT Sansi
moxvdnen SerCevaSi, es imas niSnavs, rom populaciis ganmarteba unda
SeizRudos. anu Tu am erTeulebis Taviseburebebi rCeba ucnobi, ver

7. Ibid.
266

gavigebT populaciis zust bunebas.8 davubrundeT 1936 wlis arCev­

nebis prognozs. Raribebis xmis micemis ganzraxva darCa ucnobi. Sesa-
bamisad, reprezentatuli SerCevis dizainebSi SeiZleba gamoviyenoT
mxolod albaTuri SerCeva.
kargad dagegmili SerCeva iZleva garantias, rom Tu mocemuli
populaciidan kvlevas gavimeorebT sxva SerCevebzec, TiToeuli Ser­
Cevis safuZvelze gakeTebuli mignebebi populaciis parametrebisagan
gansazRvrul raodenobaze metiT ar iqneba gansxvavebuli. amdenad,
albaTuri SerCevis dizaini SesaZlebels xdis Sefasdes, ramdenad gan­
sxvavdeba erTi SerCevis safuZvelze gakeTebuli aRmoCenebi im aR­
moCenebisagan, romelic mTeli populaciis Seswavlis safuZvelze ga­
keTdeboda. rodesac mkvlevari albaTuri SerCevis dizains iyenebs, mas
aqvs SesaZlebloba Seafasos populaciis parametrebi SerCevis statis­
tikuri maCveneblebis gamoTvlis safuZvelze.
imis miuxedavad, rom mkvlevrebs mxolod albaTuri SerCevis safuZ­
velze SeuZliaT gaakeTon populaciis parametrebis zusti Sefaseba,
socialuri mecnierebis warmomadgenlebi araalbaTur SerCevebsac iy­
eneben. araalbaTur SerCevas iyeneben moxerxebulobisa da ekonomiis
mizniT, ramac garkveul pirobebSi (magaliTad, ZiebiT kvlevaSi) SeiZ­
leba gadawonos albaTuri SerCevis gamoyenebis upiratesoba. socia­
luri mecnierebis warmomadgenlebi araalbaTur SerCevas iyeneben ma­
Sin, rodesac SeuZlebelia zustad ganisazRvros SerCeviTi populacia
an maSin, rodesac xeli ar miuwvdebaT SerCeviTi populaciis CamonaT­
valze. magaliTad, ver SevadgenT narkotikebze damokidebulTa zust
sias an SeerTebul StatebSi aralegaluri macxovreblebis sias.

araalbaTuri SerCevis dizaini

socialuri mecnierebis warmomadgenlebi araalbaTur SerCevebSi
sam mTavar dizains iyeneben, esenia: moxerxebuli SerCeva, daniSnule­
biTi SerCeva da wilobiTi (kvoturi) SerCeva.
moxerxebuli SerCeva. mkvlevrebi moxerxebul SerCevas adgenen
SerCevis im erTeulebis arCeviT, romlebic xelmisawvdomia. amdenad,
kolejis profesori SeiZleba iyenebdes studentebs; mkvlevrma SeiZle­
ba SearCios quCaSi Semxvedri 200 adamiani, romelTac aqvT gamokiTxvis
survili da a. S. mkvlevars ar SeuZlia Seafasos moxerxebuli SerCevis
reprezentatuloba da amdenad, Seafasos populaciis paramet­rebi.­

8. C hein, “ An Introduction to Sampling,” p.421.

 II nawili kvlevis dizaini da struqtura 267

daniSnulebiTi SerCeva. daniSnulebiTi SerCeviT (romelsac

zogjer msjelobiT SerCevas uwodeben) mkvlevrebi subieqturad ar­
Ceven SerCeviT erTeulebs da cdiloben SerCeva iyos populaciis
reprezentatuli. sxva sityvebiT rom vTqvaT, Sansi, rom garkveuli
SerCevis erTeuli SerCevaSi moxvdeba, damokidebulia mkvlevris
subieqtur msjelobaze. ramdenadac, Cveulebisamebr, rTulia gan­
vsazRvroT, ratom miiCnevs mkvlevari SerCevis erTeuls populaciis
reprezentatulad, aseve rTulia nebismieri konkretuli SerCevis er­
Teulis CarTvis albaToba SerCevaSi. amis miuxedavad, socialuri mec­
nierebis warmomadgenlebi garkveuli warmatebiT iyeneben daniSnule­
biT SerCevebs, raTa gaakeTon prognozi saarCevno aqtivobis Sesaxeb.
magaliTad, SeerTebul StatebSi mkvlevrebi arCeven patara saar­
Cevno ubnebs TiToeul StatSi, romlis saarCevno aqtivoba wina wlebSi
uaxlovdeboda mTeli Statebis aqtivobas. yvela registrirebul amom­
rCevels gamokiTxaven maTi xmis micemis ganzraxvebis Sesaxeb da prog­
nozi swored am angariSebs daemyareba. daSvebas, romelic safuZvlad
udevs amgvar SerCevas (da namdvilad sariskoa) aris is, rom SerCeuli
ubnebi kvlavac mTeli Statebis reprezentatuli iqneba.

proporciuli wilobiTi SerCeva. wilobiTi SerCevis mTavri

mizani aris iseTi SerCevis Sedgena, romelic, ramdenadac SesaZlebe­
lia, SerCeviTi populaciis msgavsi iqneba. magaliTad, Tu cnobilia,
rom populaciaSi qalebisa da mamakacebis Tanabari raodenobaa, mkvle­
vari qalebisa da mamakacebis Tanabar raodenobas arCevs SerCevisaTvis.
Tu cnobilia, rom populaciis 15% aris Savkaniani, mTeli SerCevis 15%
iqneba Savkaniani. wilobiT SerCevaSi interviuerebs gaamweseben wilo­
biT jgufebTan, romlebic xasiaTdebian sxvadasxva cvladiT, magali­
Tad, iseTiT, rogorica sqesi, asaki, sacxovrebeli adgili, eTnikuri
mikuTvnebuloba da a.S. magaliTad, interviuerma SeiZleba profesiul
doneze gamokiTxos 14 individi, romelTagan 7 cxovrobs gareubanSi,
xolo 7 _ centralur ubnebSi; 7 iyos mamakaci, xolo 7_ qali. 7 ma­
makacidan zustad sami iyos daqorwinebuli da 4 _ martoxela. igive
ganawileba moqmedebs qalebis SemTxvevaSic. magaliTad, naTelia, rom
araproporciuloba SerCevasa da populacias Soris SeiZleba gaCndes
cvladebSi, romelic mkvlevars ar gamouyvia interviueris wilSi. ro­
gorc sxva araalbaTuri SerCevebis SemTxvevaSi, Cven ar SegviZlia Seva­
fasoT populaciis parametrebi wilobiT SerCevaze dayrdnobiT.
sazogadoebrivi azris mkvlevrebi xSirad iyenebdnen arapropor­
ciul wilobiT SerCevebs 1948 wlis saprezidento arCevnebamde, rode­
268

sac polebma arasworad iwinaswarmetyveles tomas diveis gamarjveba.9

sami mTavari poli winaswarmetyvelebda arCevnebis Sedegs da samive
ambobda, rom gamarjvebuli divei iqneboda. Tumca arCevnebis dRes
prezidentma hari trumenma saxalxo arCevnebSi moigo TiTqmis 50%-iT
maSin, roca diveim miiRo 45%-ze cota meti.
samive es poli wilobiT SerCevas iyenebda, iTvaliswinebda xmis
micemaze savaraudo gavlenis mqone cvladebs, magaliTad, sacxovrebel
adgils, sqess, asaks, eTnikuri mikuTvnebulobasa da Semosavals. am cv­
ladebis mniSvnelovnobis Sesaxeb, maTi daSvebis miuxedavad, am arCev­
nebSi mravali sxva faqtoric axdenda gavlenas xmis micemaze. yvelaze
mniSvnelovani ki iyo is, rom ar gamoiyo resbublikelTa da demokratTa
wilebi, ramdenadac am organizaciebma ar icodnen politikuri mosaz­
rebebis ganawileba da mis garkvevas cdilobdnen. sabolood SesaZle­
belia 1948 wlis polebis yvelaze problemuri elementi iyo is, rom
interviuerebi Tavisufalni iyvnen imis arCevaSi, vis CarTavdnen isini
maTTvis gankuTvnil kvotebSi. es iwvevda kidec mniSvnelovan gadaxra
gansxvavebas.10

albaTuri SerCevis dizaini

adre aRvniSneT, rom araalbaTuri SerCevisagan gansxvavebiT, al­
baTuri SerCevis dizainebi saSualebas aZlevs mkvlevrebs SerCevis
TiToeuli erTeulisaTvis gansazRvron imis albaToba, rom igi mox­
vdeba SerCevis erT nakadSi populaciidan. aq warmogidgenT albaTuri
SerCevis oTx mTavar dizains: martivi SemTxveviTi SerCeva, sistematu­
ri SerCeva, stratificirebuli SerCeva da klasteruli SerCeva.

martivi SemTxveviTi SerCeva. martivi SemTxveviTi SerCeva mTavari

albaTuri SerCevis dizainia da igi gvxvdeba yvela kargad damuSavebul
albaTuri SerCevis dizainSi. martivi SemTxveviTi SerCeva aris pro­
cedura, romelic populaciis mTel SerCeviT erTeulebs (aRiniSneba N
N -iT) aZlevs Tanabar da cnobil aranulovan albaTobas, rom iqnebian
SerCeulni. magaliTad, rodesac Tqven agdebT dauzianebel monetas,
imis albaToba, rom igi daecema erT an meore mxares, aris Tanabari da
cnobili (50%) da yoveli momdevno Sedegi wina Sedegisagan damoukide­
belia. mecnierebi Cveulebriv iyeneben kompiuterul programebsa da
randomuli cifrebis cxrilebs, raTa Seadginon SemTxveviTi SerCeva.

9. Freedman et al., Statistics, pp. 302-307

10. Ibid., pp. 305-307.
 II nawili kvlevis dizaini da struqtura 269

randomuli cifrebis cxrili warmodgenilia danarT 8.1-Si. aseTi

cxrilis gamoyeneba martivia. pirvel rigSi, CamoTvaleT populaciis
SerCevis TiToeuli erTeuli da mianiWeT maT ricxvebi 1-dan N N -mde.
Semdeg daiwyeT randomuli cifrebis cxrilis kiTxva romelime
SemTxveviTi sawyisi wertilidan. cxrilis TiToeuli cifri ikiTxeba
garkveuli wesiT (zevidan qveviT, qvevidan zeviT, diagonalurad. mimar­
Tulebas ar aqvs mniSvneloba, ramdenadac igi konsistenturia). rode­
sac randomuli cifrebis cxrilSi mosuli cifri Seesabameba SerCevis
erTeuls Tqvens CamonaTvalSi, aiReT SerCevis erTeuli SerCevisaT­
vis. ganagrZeT es procesi, sanam ar miaRwevT SerCevis sasurvel zomas.
rodesac am meTods viyenebT, SerCevis nebismieri mocemuli erTeulis
arCeva aris SemTxveviTi, anu damoukidebelia SerCevis wina erTeulebis
arCevisagan. Sesabamisad, Tqven amcirebT gadaxras SerCevis procedur­
aSi da SegiZliaT SeafasoT parametrebi sandoobis maRali xarisxiT _
rom isini warmoadgenen realur mniSvnelobebs mTel populaciaSi.
randomuli SerCevis procedurebi iZleva garantias, rom popula­
ciis SerCevis yovel erTeuls aqvs Tanabari da cnobili albaToba, rom
moxvdeba SerCevaSi. es albaToba aris n/N N, sadac n aRniSnavs SerCevis
moculobas, xolo N N _ populaciis moculobas.11 magaliTad, Tu popu­
lacia Sedgeba 50389 registrirebuli amomrCevlisagan qalaqSi da mar­
tivi SemTxveviTi SerCeva _ 1800 individisagan, albaToba, rom popula­
ciis SerCevis TiToeuli erTeuli moxvdeba SerCevaSi, aris 1800/50389,
anu 0.0357 (ixileT danarTi 8.1).

danarTi 8.1
rogor SevadginoT SemTxveviTi SerCeva

problema

regionuli hospitalis danaxarjis moculobis kvlevaSi mowmdeba

Canawerebi pacientTa Sesaxeb. N N = 100 Canaweridan unda Sedges SerCeva
n = 10 moculobiT.
1. Cven SegviZlia davnomroT angariSebi, dawyebuli 001-dan (pirveli
angariSi) da dasrulebuli 100-iT. yuradReba miaqcieT imas, rom
populaciaSi TiToeul Canawers samniSna ricxvs vaniWebT. Tu
Canawerebis saerTo raodenoba iqneboda 1250, dagvWirdeboda
oTxniSna ricxvebi. am SemTxvevaSi Cven gvWirdeba SevarCioT

11. For the mathematical proof, see Kish, Survey Sampling, pp. 39-40.
270

samniSna randomuli cifrebi, raTa yovel Canawers mivceT erTi

da igive cnobli Sansi, rom moxdeba misi CarTva SerCevaSi.
2. axla mivmarToT danarT D D-s da gamoviyenoT pirveli sveti. Se­am­
CnevdiT, rom TiToeuli sveti Sedgeba xuTniSna ricxvebisagan.
Tu Cven TiToeul ricxvs CamovaSorebT or ukanasknel cifrs da
qvemoT gavuyvebiT svets, xelT gveqneba Semdegi ricxvebi:

104 854 521 007*

223 289 070* 053*
241 635 486 919
421 094* 541 005*
375 103 326 007
779 071* 293 690
995 510 024* 259
963 023* 815 097*
895 010* 296

ukanaskneli ricxvi CamonaTvalSi aris 097, 35-e xazidan (sveti

pirveli). Cven ar gvWirdeba CamovweroT meti ricxvebi, ramdenadac
ukve gvaqvs aTi gansxvavebuli ricxvi, romelic axasiaTebs Cvens Ser­
Cevas (007 gvxvdeba orjer, magram misi SerCeva xdeba mxolod erTxel).
varskvlavebiT aRniSnuli ricxvebi aris is Canawerebi, romlebic ava­
rCieT Cveni SerCevisaTvis, radgan mxolod es ricxvebi xvdeba Cven mier
danomril rigSi _ 001-100.
axla ukve gvaqvs aTi Canaweri Cveni martivi SemTxveviTi SerCevi­
saTvis:

094 070 005

071 024 097
023 007
010 053

3. Cven ar gvWirdeba daviwyoT aTvla pirveli svetis pirveli

rigidan. SegviZlia SevarCioT nebismieri sawyisi wertili, vTqvaT,
meore svetis meSvide rigi. aseve SegviZlia avirCioT nebismieri
mimarTuleba svetebSi, magalitad, zemodan qvemoT, diagonalis
gaswvriv da a. S.

sistematuri SerCevebi. sistematuri SerCeva moicavs yoveli

­K -uri (rigiT me- K K) SerCevis erTeulis arCevas populaciidan mas Sem­
 II nawili kvlevis dizaini da struqtura 271

deg, rac SemTxveviTad SeirCeva pirveli SerCevis erTeuli SerCevis

erTeulebis mTeli erTobliobidan. amdenad, Tu Tqven gsurT SearCioT
100 individi populaciidan, romelic moicavs 10 000 adamians, Tqven
unda aiRoT yoveli mease individi (K K = N/n = 10 000/100 = 100). pirveli
arCevani ganisazRvreba SemTxveviTi procesebiT, rogoricaa, magali­
Tad, randomuli cifrebis cxrilis gamoyeneba. warmoidgineT, rom mox­
deboda meToTxmete individis arCeva, SerCeva am SemTxvevaSi iqneboda
Semdgari me-14, 114-e, 214-e, 314-e, 414-e da a.S. individebisagan.
sistematuri SerCeva ufro mosaxerxebelia, vidre martivi Sem­
TxveviTi SerCeva. rodesac velze SerCevis Sedgena uxdebaT SerCevis
meTodebSi naklebad gaTviTcnobierebul interviuerebs, ufro mar­
tivia maTTvis imis swavleba, rogor aarCion yoveli K -uriK individi
siidan, vidre davalebis micema, rom gamoiyenon randomuli cifrebis
cxrili. sistematuri SerCevebi aseve ufro metad gamoyenebadia Za­
lian didi populaciebis SemTxvevaSi an maSin, rodesac unda Sedges
didi SerCevebi (ixileT danarTi 8.2.).

danarTi 8.2
rogor SevadginoT sistematuri SerCeva

problema

socialuri mecnierebis warmomadgeneli dainteresebulia mSo­

blebis saqmianobasa da Svilebis saSualo qulebs Soris mimarTebis
kvleviT did urbanul kampusSi (N N = 35 000). ramdenadac saWiro infor­
macia SeiZleba miviRoT studentTa Canawerebidan, SerCeva iqneba ar­
Ceuli Canawerebi, n = 700 moculobiT. Cven SegveZlo Segvedgina mar­
tivi SemTxveviTi SerCeva (ixileT danarTi 8.1), magram es did Sromas
moiTxovs. alternatiuli gza aris Semdegi proceduris gamoyeneba:

1. pirveli nabiji aris SerCevis intervalis, K -s gansazRvra.

ramdenadac N N = 35 000 da SerCevis moculoba n = 700, K K iqneba 35
000/700, anu K K = 50.
2. axla SemTxveviTad virCevT pirvel Canawers K K = 50 Canaweridan da
Semdeg viRebT yovel ormocdameaTe Canawers, sanam ar mivaRwevT
SerCevis moculobas, 700-s.

sistematuri SerCeviT, SerCevis yoveli erTeuls populaciaSi aqvs

1/K K albaToba, rom moxvdeba SerCevaSi. Tumca, SeiZleba arsebobdes
272

raime paterni monacemebSi, romelic sistematurad Cndeba yovel K -

urK erTeulSi. es fenomeni iqneba gadaxra SerCevaSi. magaliTad, Tqven
SeiZleba atarebdeT saSualo moculobis kvlevas erTojaxian saxle­
bze qalaqSi da pirveli saxli, romelic airCieT, kuTxisaa. Tumca Tqven
SeiZleba arc icodeT, rom yoveli K -ur saxli Tqvens CamonaTvalSi
aseve kuTxis saxlia. es SeiZleba warmoadgendes gadaxras (gansxvave­
bas), radgan kuTxis saxlebi, Cveulebriv, ufro didia. Tu Tqven iciT
sistematuri paterni SerCevis erTeulebis populaciaSi da SegiZliaT
CamonaTvalSi adgilebis gadanacvleba, SeZlebT mniSvnelovnad Seam­
ciroT problema.12

stratificirebuli (fenobrivi) SerCeva. mkvlevrebi stratifici­

rebul SerCevas ZiriTadad imisaTvis iyeneben, raTa darwmundnen, rom
populaciis sxvadasxva jgufi adekvaturadaa warmodgenili SerCevaSi.
Sesabamisad, parametrebis Sefasebisas izrdeba sizustis done. garda
amisa, rodesac yvela sxva faqtori Tanabaria, stratificirebuli Ser­
Ceva mniSvnelovnad amcirebs danaxarjs. idea, romelic stratifici­
rebul SerCevas udevs safuZvlad, aris populaciis Sesaxeb xelmis­
awvdomi informaciis gamoyeneba, raTa `davyoT igi jgufebad ise, rom
mosalodneli iyos TiToeul jgufSi emelentebis ufro metad warmod­
gena, vidre isini warmodgenilni arian mTel populaciaSi~.13 anu Tqven
qmniT homogenur SerCevebs im cvladebze dayrdnobiT, romlebic kvle­
vis farglebSi gainteresebT. Tu SesaZlebelia homogenuri jgufebis
im gziT SerCeva, rom rodesac SerCevebis kombinirebas moaxdenT, isini
Seadgendnen SerCevas ufro heterogenuri populaciisa, Tqven zrdiT
Tqvens mier parametrebis Sefasebis sizustes.
magaliTad, warmoidgineT, rom mocemul populaciaSi aris 700
TeTrkaniani, 200 Savkaniani da 100 laTinosi. Tu SeadgendiT 100 adami­
anis moculobis SemTxveviT SerCevas, savaraudoa, rom ver miiRebdiT
zustad 70 TeTrkanian, 20 Sav da 10 laTinos individs. laTinosebis
proporcia SesaZloa gansakuTrebiT mcire yofiliyo. 70 TeTrkanianis,
20 Savkanianisa da 10 laTinosis stratificirebuli SerCeva iZleva ga­
rantias, rom ukeT moxdeba am jgufebis warmodgena SerCevaSi. strati­
fikacia ar ewinaaRmdegeba SemTxveviTi SerCevis princips, radgan al­
baTuri SerCeva TiToeul fenaze xorcieledeba.
SerCevis homogenur fenebad dasayofad aucilebeli piroba aris

12. For some other procedures for avoiding problems caused by systematic patterns in populations, see William
Cochran, Sampling Techniques, 3d ed. ( New York: Wiley, 1977).
13. Morris H. Hansen, William N.Hurwitz, and William G. Madow, Sample Survey Methods and Theory ( New
York: Wiley, 1953), p.40.
 II nawili kvlevis dizaini da struqtura 273

is, rom am dayofis kriteriumi unda Seesabamebodes cvlads, romelsac

mkvlevari Seiswavlis. meore piroba: gamoyenebuli kriteriumi ar unda
iTxovdes imdeni subSerCevis Sedgenas, rom isini aWarbebdnen SerCevis
mTel moculobas, rac saWiro iqneboda, Tu SemTxveviT SerCevas gamov­
iyenebdiT. warmoidgineT, rom gsurT SeafasoT Sualeduri ojaxis
Semosavali patara qalaqSi da iciT ojaxebis maxasiaTeblebi popula­
ciaSi. ramdenadac winaswar dadgenilia, rom Semosavali korelirebs
saqmianobasTan, ganaTlebasTan, eTnikur mikuTvnebulobasTan, asakTan,
sqesTan _ es iqneba logikuri safuZveli Tqveni SerCevis stratifika­
ciisaTvis. Tumca, Tu yvela am safuZvels gamoiyenebT, stratificire­
buli SerCevis mniSvneloba Semcirdeba, radgan Zalian didi iqneba sub­
SerCevebis raodenoba.
warmoidgineT, ra moxdeboda, Tu geqnebodaT oTxi saqmianobis
kategoria, sami ganaTlebis kategoria, sami eTnikuri mikuTvnebulo­
bis, sami asakobrivi, ori _ sqesis. subSerCevebis raodenoba iqneboda
4 # 3 # 3 # 3 # 2 , anu 216. ramdenadac statistikurad damakmayofile­
beli sixSire yvelaze mcire jgufSi ar SeiZleba iyos 10 SemTxvevaze
naklebi, dagWirdebodaT minimum 2160 individi, Tu davuSvebdiT, rom
sixSire yvela jgufSi Tanabaria. patara qalaqis SemTxvevaSi ki aseTi
didi raodenoba ver CaiTvleba adekvatur SerCevad. imisaTvis, rom ga­
davWraT es problema, vuSvebT, rom mravali es faqtori asocirebulia
(kerZod, es maxasiaTeblebi erTad gvxvdeba). amdenad, Tu socialuri
statusi iqneba arCeuli, rogorc saqmianobis, ganaTlebis, eTnikuri
mikuTvnebulobis erTgvari gamaerTianebeli, subSerCevebis raodeno­
ba dava 4 (socialuri statusi) # 3 (asakobrivi jgufebi) # 2 (genderuli
jgufebi) = 24 subSerCevaze mTlianobaSi 240 individiT. es SerCevis
ufro gamoyenebadi da marTebuli dizainia da igi populaciis ufro
metad reprezentatuli iqneba, vidre martivi SemTxveviTi SerCeva.
SerCeva sxvadasxva fenidan SeiZleba iyos proporciuli an arap­
roporciuli. Tu Tqven irCevT SerCevis erTeulebis erTsa da imave
raodenobas TiToeuli fenidan, an maT erTnair Sefardebas populaci­
aSi ( n/N N), es iqneba proporciuli stratificirebuli SerCeva, radgan
SerCevis moculoba TiToeuli fenidan ( n ) proporciulia fenis pop­
ulaciis moculobisa ( N N). Tumca, Tu saerTo raodenoba (N N ) TiToeul
fenaSi gansxvavebulia, anu Tu saxeze gvaqvs cvladis gansxvavebuli
Sefardeba, miviRebT araproporciul stratificirebul SerCevas.
sxva sityvebiT rom vTqvaT, rodesac adamianebis saerTo raodenoba,
romelic xasiaTdeba TiToeuli cvladiT (anu feniT), gansxvavebu­
lia, SerCeva TiToeuli fenidan unda Sedges kvlevis moTxovnebis Se­
sabamisad. rogorc wesi, araproporciuli stratificirebuli SerCeva
274

gamoiyeneba ori an meti konkretuli fenis Sesadareblad an erTi fenis

intensiurad gasaaanalizeblad. rodesac mkvlevari iyenebs arapro­
porciul stratificirebul SerCevas, mas uxdeba populaciis parame­
trebis Sefaseba im raodenobis safuZvelze, romelic TiToeul fenaSi
Sedis14 (ixileT danarTi 8.3).

danarTi 8.3
rogor SevadginoT stratificirebuli SerCeva

problema

urbanuli dasaxlebebis gajansaRebis kvlevaSi, vgegmavT Sevamow­

moT axalmosaxleTa attitudebi Tavisi ubnis mimarT. Cven viTval­
iswinebT imas, rom saxlis mflobelTa attitudebi SeiZleba gans­
vavdebodes damqiravebelTa attitudebisagan. amdenad, imisaTvis, rom
gvqondes orive jgufis adekvaturad warmodgenis garantia, viyenebT
proporciul stratificirebul SemTxveviT SerCevas ori feniT: axali
mflobelebi da axali damqiraveblebi.

1. populacia Sedgeba N N = N1 + N2 mcxovrebisgan, sadac N N1 aRniSnavs

axal mflobelebs da N N2 _ axal damqiraveblebs. N N1 = 200 da N N2 =
300. amdenad N N = 500. Cven gadavwyviteT SevadginoT proporciuli
SerCeva SefardebiT 1/10 TiToeuli fenidan. Sesabamisad, N N1 = 20
saxlis mflobels da N N2 = 30 damqiravebels, romlebic Sevlen
SerCevaSi.
2. Semdeg viyenebT martivi SemTxveviTi SerCevis proceduras
(ixileT danarTi 8.1) cal-calke TiToeul CamonaTvalTan
mimarTebaSi.

klasteruli SerCeva. albaTuri SerCevis meoTxe tipi, romelsac

socialuri mecnierebis warmomadgenlebi iyeneben, aris klasteruli
SerCeva. igi xSirad gamoiyeneba didi moculobis kvlevebSi, radgan
SerCevis yvelaze iafi dizainia. klasteruli SerCeva moicavs didi
pirveladi jgufebis SerCevas, romelsac klasterebs vuwodebT da
Semdeg SerCevis erTeulebis arCevas am klastrebidan. klasterebi

14. See Kish, Survey Sampling, pp. 77-82, for methods of weighting.
 II nawili kvlevis dizaini da struqtura 275

SeirCeva martivi SemTxveviTi an stratificirebuli SerCeviT. sakvlev

problemaze dayrdnobiT, mkvlevrebs SeuZliaT am klasterebSi moic­
van SerCevis yoveli erTeuli, an moaxdinon SerCeva klasterebidan
martivi SemTxveviTi an stratificirebuli SerCevis procedurebiT.
warmoidgineT, rom kvlevis mizania mozrdilTa politikuri atti­
tudebis Seswavla qalaqis sxvadasxva saarCevno ubanSi. ar gvaqvs sia,
romelic moicavs yoveli mozrdili mcxovrebis saxels da Tan aseTi
siis Sedgena Zalian Zviri gvijdeba. Tumca gvaqvs saarCevno ubnebis
gegma. pirvel rigSi SegviZlia SemTxveviTad SevarCioT saarCevno ub­
nebi CamonaTvalidan (pirveli safexuris klasteruli SerCeva). Semdeg
TiToeul am ubanSi SemTxveviTad virCevT sacxovrebel erTeulebs
(meore safexuris klasteruli SerCeva) da gamovkiTxavT yvela adami­
ans am sacxovrebel erTeulSi. aseT SemTxvevaSi, Cven vagebT samsafexu­
rian klasterul SerCevas (SerCevis am meTods ewodeba teritoriuli
albaTuri SerCeva an ubralod teritoriuli SerCeva). aseve, urbanuli
ojaxebis gamokiTxva SeiZleba iyenebdes qalaqebis SerCevas; TiToeul
SerCeul qalaqSi raionebis SerCevas; TiToeul SerCeul raionSi
ojaxebis SerCevas (ixileT danarTi 8.4).

danarTi 8.4
rogor SevadginoT klasteruli SerCeva

problema

kvlevis daniSnulebaa urbanuli dasaxlebebis mcxovrebTa gamo­

kiTxva. mozrdilTa CamonaTvali ar gvaqvs da, amdenad, mivmarTavT
klasteruli SerCevis dizains.

pirveli safexuri

1. gansazRvreT teritoria, romelsac unda moicavdes uaxlesi

gegma. aRniSneT sazRvrebi da gamoricxeT adgilebi, romlebic ar
moicaven sacxovrebel erTeulebs.
2. dayaviT mTliani teritoria dasaxlebebad. sasazRvro xazebi ar
unda yofdes sacxovrebel erTeulebs da advilad sacnobi unda
iyos velze momuSaveTaTvis.
3. Semdeg danomreT dasaxlebebi, sasurvelia, Tu amas seriulad da
gvelisebri stiliT (zigzagiT) gaakeTebT.
4. dabolos, SeadgineT dasaxlebebis martivi SemTxveviTi SerCeva an
sistematuri SerCeva Sesabamisi proceduris gamoyenebiT.
276

meore safexuri

1. CamowereT da danomreT yoveli sacxovrebeli erTeuli TiToeul

SerCeul dasaxlebaSi. monaxazi zogjer velze momuSaveebisagan
moiTxovs garantias, rom yoveli axali konstruqcia Sesulia
CamonaTvalSi.
2. SeadgineT sacxovrebeli erTeulebis martivi SemTxveviTi an
sistematuri SerCeva.
3. dabolos, gamokiTxeT SerCeuli individebi TiToeul SerCeul
sacxovrebel erTeulSi. Cveulebisamebr SerCeva mkvlevris
miTiTebebiT xorcieldeba.

klasterebis arCeva damokidebulia kvlevis miznebsa da xelmisawv­

dom wyaroebze. ojaxebi, sacxovrebeli erTeulebi, skolebi, raione­
bi, qalaqebi _ yoveli amaTgani gamoiyeneba klasterebad. lesli kiSi
aRniSnavs:

SeerTebuli Statebis populacia SeiZleba CavTvaloT is­

eTi erTe­ulebis agregatad, rogoricaa mTeli olqebi, an
qalaqebis agregatad, an segmentebisa da sacxovrebeli erTe­
ulebis agregatad, an individebad. namdvilad, SerCevis yvela
es erTeuli gamoiyeneba SeerTebuli Statebis teritoriul
SerCevebSi.15

albaTuri SerCeva: daskvna

albaTuri SerCevis oTxi dizaini, romelic Cven aRvwereT, ZiriTa­
di dizainebia, romlebic yvelaze xSirad gamoiyeneba socialur mecni­
erTebis warmomadgenelTa mier. Tumca, es ar aris albaTur SerCevaTa
procedurebis sruli speqtri da girCevT, rom meti informaciisaTvis
mimarToT damatebiT sakiTxavs, romelic Tavis bolos gaqvT mocemu­
li. am oTxi dizainis Sejameba da mokle aRwera mocemulia qvemoT.

albaTuri SerCeva: magaliTi

SerCevis sruli procesis sailustraciod ganvixiloT proce­
durebi, romlebsac erovnul gamokiTxvebSi mimarTa sociologiuri

15. Ibid., p.150

 II nawili kvlevis dizaini da struqtura 277

kvlevebis institutma (ISR) miCiganis universitetSi.16 SerCevis proce­

dura SerCevis sam dizains moicavs: klasterul SerCevas, stratifici­
rebul SerCevasa da martiv SemTxveviT SerCevas.
ISR aris erT-erTi udides universitetze dafuZnebuli socialur
mecnierebaTa kvlevebis organizacia SeerTebul StatebSi. kvlevis
proeqtebs, romlebic institutis mier xorcieldeba, sponsorobas uw­
evs saxelmwifo saagentoebi, kerZo biznesebi, sajaro momsaxurebis or­

oTxi albaTuri SerCevis aRwera

martivi SemTxveviTi SerCeva: mianiWeT konkretuli ricxvebi

SerCevis TiToeul erTeuls; SearCieT SerCevis erTeulebi
randomuli cifrebis cxrilis gamoyenebiT.
sistematuri SerCeva: gansazRvreT SerCevis intervali (N/
n);­ SerCevis pirveli erTeuli SearCieT SemTxveviT; SerCevis
darCenili erTeulebi SearCieT intervalis Sesabamisad.
stratificirebuli SerCeva: (proporciuli) gansazRvreT
fena; TiToeuli fenidan aarCieT SemTxveviTi SerCeva,
romelic proporciuli iqneba fenis zomisa populaciaSi;
(araproporciuli) gansazRvreT fena, TiToeuli fenidan
aarCieT SemTxveviTi SerCeva im moculobiT, rasac analitikuri
msjeloba gikarnaxebT.
klasteruli SerCeva: gansazRvreT klasterebis doneebis
raodenoba; klasterebis TiToeuli donidan SerCeva
SemTxveviTad SeadgineT; analizis ZiriTadi erTeulebi is
jgufebia, romlebic Sedian SerCeviT populaciaSi.

ganizaciebi. mravali kvleva moicavs did SerCevas, mTeli eris masSta­

biT. aq CamoTvlilia safexurebi, romelsac ISR mihyveboda erovnuli
SerCevis Sedgenisas17 (ixileT naxazi 8.1.).
1. SeerTebuli Statebis mTeli geografiuli teritoria dayo­
filia patara teritoriebad, TiToeuls ewodeba SerCevis ZiriTadi
erTeuli (PSU). zogadad PSU olqebi an metropoliis teritoriebi.
PSU-s erTiani siidan mkvlvrebi stratificirebuli SemTxveviTi Ser­

16. Survey Research Center, Interviewer’s Manual, rev. ed. ( Ann Arbor: Institute for Social Research, Univer-
sity of Michigan, 1976), Champter 8.
17. Ibid.
278

CeviT irCeven 74-s, raTa darwmundnen, rom soflebi, didi da saSualo

zomis qalaqebi da regionebi adekvaturadaa warmodgenili.

2. TiToeuli arCeuli 74 PSU Semdgom ufro patara terito­

riebad iyofa. magaliTad, hipoTezuri PSU, romelic ori didi da
eqvsi saSualo zomis qalaqisagan, agreTve, olqSi Semavali darCenili
soflebisagan Sedgeba, Semdgom daiyofa sam fenad: (1) didi qalaqebi,
(2) patara qalaqebi da (3) soflebi. erTeulebs, romlebic am fenebSi
Sedis, SerCeviTi adgilebi ewodeba. TiToeuli fenidan airCeva erTi
an meti SerCeviTi adgili.

3. SerCevis TiToeuli adgili Semdgom iyofa monakveTebad. mon­

akveTi ganisazRvreba, rogorc teritoria, romelsac Tavisi sazRvre­
bi aqvs: magaliTad, urbanul teritoriebSi monakveTi dasaxlebis
ekvivalenturia, soflad igi Semoifargleba gzebiT an olqis xaze­
biT. SerCevis TiToeul adgilSi monakveTebi SemTxveviTad airCeva.

4. am safexurze interviuerebi mTavar rols asruleben Ser­

Cevis procesSi. isini stumroben TiToeul monakveTs, Camoweren
sacxovrebel erTeulebs da msjeloben, rogor SeiZleba daiyos mon­
akveTi teritoriebad, romelTagan TiToeuli moicavs 4-dan 12-mde
sacxovrebel erTeuls. am teritoriebs ewodeba segmentebi. seg­
mentebis arCeva TiToeuli monakveTidan SemTxveviTad xdeba.

5. ukanasknel safexurze, mkvlevrebi TiToeuli segmentidan

arCeven sacxovrebel erTeulebs, romlebic Seva saboloo SerCevaSi.
sacxovrebeli erTeulebis SerCevis procedura sxvadasxvagvaria.
rodesac segmenti moicavs mxolod ramdenime sacxovrebel erTeuls,
yoveli maTgani iqneba gamokvleuli. Tu segmenti moicavs mraval
sacxovrebel erTeuls, kvlevaSi sacxovrebeli erTeulebis mxolod
garkveuli nawili Seva.

SerCevis moculoba
SerCeva aris SerCevis erTeulebis nebismieri subjgufi popula­
ciidan. esaa SerCevis erTeulebis nebismieri kombinacia, romelic ar
moicavs populaciis saxeliT gansazRvrul SerCevis erTeulebis mTel
jgufs. SerCeva SeiZleba Seicavdes mxolod SerCevis erT erTeuls, an