IE 27 THV/THW ProbSet 1 Max score: 30/30 (5 points per problem)

Instructions: Problem 4

1. You may accomplish this activity in groups of at most In a particular game that is played with a fixed number of
three members. rounds, such that, each round has a constant winning rate,
2. Write your answers on yellow paper with your names it was found out that the average number of rounds that
on the upper-left corner. Final answers should be a player can win is 3.01 and the variance of the number of
boxed. rounds won is 1.7157. Charlie wishes to play this game.
3. Show complete solutions in an orderly manner. No or Find the probability that he wins his third win on the fifth
vague solutions, no partial points. round.
4. Give answers up to the 5th decimal place, if
appropriate. Do not unnecessarily round off
intermediate values. Problem 5
5. DO NOT CHEAT. No sharing of calculators, using of
Brogelio is working to grow very old seeds that have been
cellphones, or talking to other classmates other than
stored centuries ago, he would like to see if he can grow
the ones you are working with.
them. He estimates that each seed will germinate with a
6. This activity is meant for you to apply knowledge that
probability of 30%, independent of the others. If he plants
you have learned in class. Please take advantage of
one seed per day for 10 days, what is the probability that
this by treating it as a learning opportunity.
exactly 8 seeds will germinate if the first two seeds are
7. The deadline for this activity is 3 Sept 2019 at 5PM.
known to be dead already?
Submit your works at the MH 402 pigeonholes.
8. Good luck!
Problem 6
Problem 1 ShimmyShack is an emerging place for all your burger
cravings. During their peak hours, customers arrive at a
Messages arrive at a service center for an information
rate of 8 people for every minute. Assume that the
systems manufacturer have been classified on the basis of
number of people arriving at any time interval can be
the number of keywords and the type of message, either
modelled using Poisson distribution. If Jaime observes all
email or voice. Previously, it was known that 70% of the
arriving people during the start of the peak hours, find the
messages arrive via email, and the rest are voice. The
probability that she sees the 5th customer enter in 15
table below shows the probabilities of number of
seconds.
keywords for each type of message.
Number of 0 1 2 3 4
Keywords

Email 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2

Voice 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0

(5 points) Provide the pmf of the number of keywords in
each message.

Problem 2

For a random variable X, E[X] = 28 and Var[X] = 17.

a. (3 points) If 𝑌 = (3𝑋 + 4)2 , find E[Y].
b. (2 points) If 𝑍 = 7𝑋 − 3, find Var[Z].

Problem 3

A jury at a certain trial is composed of 12 people. From the

initial pool where the current jury was chosen from, it was
found out that 21 out of 54 individuals are gullible enough
to sympathize with the criminal -- hence, they would vote
to free him. If the jury works such that the majority vote
would be carried out, find the probability that the jury will
not free the criminal on trial.