Aman Siddiqi

Systems Thinking Final

Penn State University
April 22, 2008

Systems Thinking and Islam

A central aspect of Systems Thinking is the dislocation of actions and their results. Choices made
today may yield results far in the future. Occurrences today may have been set in motion decades in
the past. Changes made to a single area may effect numerous outside divisions elsewhere. Our actions
are often motivated by the belief that choices made here and now effect only here and now. Whenever
process is involved this assumption will lead to poor decision making.

Islam is a well-known system for developing humanity. Techniques for training and freeing societies
from corruption. Islam addresses the systemic nature of our lives while guiding mankind towards the
highest goals. The dislocation of causes from effects in systemic behavior has numerous repercussions.
The effects of delay; importance of long-term goals and dangers of complacency are three warnings
emphasized throughout the Qur'an and Islamic philosophy which safeguard believers from the pitfalls
of applying non-systemic strategies to the ongoing process of our lives.

Delay
Systems Thinking
Choices today will result in effects tomorrow. Misunderstanding this simple idea is the source of many
dilemmas. We'll take for example the Supply Chain computer simulation designed by the Sloan
Business School.

Four players participate: Retailer, Wholesaler, Distributor and Factory. A steady demand of consumer
purchases are requested from the Retailer. He must in-turn replenish his stock from the Wholesaler.
Wholesalers buy from Distributors and Distributors from the Factory. Seems simple, right?

Students quickly get themselves into trouble managing each division's inventory. Soon inventories
farther up the supply chain begin to empty and the orders are flying in. Backlogs accrue and more
orders are placed. Then, just when the orders seem to decrease at each division, all the previous orders
come flying down the supply chain and there's huge overstock. These fluctuations continue in cycles
throughout the game.

What's shocking to most students is the consumer demand is constant throughout the game with one
small change after the beginning weeks. The entire cycle of events set in motion results from the
interaction of the four parties, Retailer, Wholesaler, Distributor and Factory. Their interaction alone
sends the entire system into chaos.

Delay plays a major role in this system. When the retailer places an order to replenish his stock, does it
arrive immediately? Of course not. The simulation dictates one day to process the order, one day in
transit, one day in loading, then on the fourth day the order enters inventory. This is the minimum
delay assuming the Wholesaler has enough in stock to ship the order at all. If not, this delay is doubled
when the Wholesaler orders from his Distributor to fill the retailer's request. And if his inventory is
insufficient, he calls the Factory to turn up production.
In this case the minimum time for the Retailer to receive any stock from the Factory is 12 days! And
what has been happening during these two weeks. Has the Retailer been idly awaiting his order? Of
course more consumer purchases have been requested each day, for which the Retailer sent additional
orders to the Wholesaler and the cycle adds up. Making matters worse, as the backlog mounts
divisions order more and more anticipating the demand to increase. If the Wholesaler has a backlog of
10, he orders 20 so he'll end up with some stock in inventory. Soon the Factory is receiving huge
orders while their production capacity remains constant.

Finally the orders start pouring into each division. Everyone now has far more inventory than needed.
New orders stop moving up the supply chain, but the previously made orders are still being filled. The
delay has caught up with them. Until of course their stock lowers down and the cycle begins again.

All this mess simply because of the delay, or steps necessary, for orders to be filled. And more
importantly, how these delays propagated along the distribution chain.

Islam and the Future

The Hayyatul Dunya, our life in this world, is one long process. The results of which we will not see
for quite a while. The Noble Qur'an repeatedly reminds mankind of the systemic nature of our actions.
The results of our choices will manifest in the future and by then, we will have spent a life-time
committing actions for which we will later be sorry.

Lets say I make an insulting remark. God then sends down an angel who appeared before me and
administered some punishment. Perhaps he gave me a flat tire on the way home, it would be hard too
miss. I would probably get the message after seeing far too many angels in my youth. By now I'd be
too worried to open my mouth!

Angels of course don't make such trips. The accountability for our actions is delayed. And by then, no
further rectifications will be possible. In the mean time, there is no apparent punishment for my insults.
So I may continue to make them basing my decisions on my current state of being. In fact, I may
become quite used to this behavior until I no longer even view it as distasteful. My regular behavior
will include daily jibs at others, most of whom are not even present. Like a spoiled child who's
behavior worsens due to lack of parental constraint, the delay in my accountability will create a false
sense of security. "It seems that every time I do this, nothing bad happens. In fact some people even
praise me for my crass behavior. Sounds great!"

She's partially correct. Nothing bad happened yet. And here is the delay. Our actions set some process
in motion. And before we receive the feedback of those choices, we've already made several more. In
this case, we will have made a lifetime of choices all of whose results are delayed. We keep making
things worse and worse and then the orders will start flying in. Only over-stock of bad deeds will be
far more detrimental to our life in the Hereafter.

Countless verses throughout the Noble Qur'an describe the effects of this delay. One of the most
powerful, poignantly and poetically describes the illusion this delay creates.

"Everyone shall taste death. And only on the Day of Resurrection shall you be paid your wages in full.
And whoever is removed away from the Fire and admitted to Paradise, he indeed is successful. The life
of this world is only the enjoyment of deception." --3:185
I had a neighbor who wasted his salary on good times during the first few days of every week. Then
like clock-work every Thursday night he came to ask me for money to buy food for the weekend. Then
his check came Monday morning and the cycle began again. Every week I'd offer my help to adjust his
spending to last the full week. “Why be so worried!” he says. “I have everything under control.”

Something that happens later, for some strange reason, is less worrisome to mankind that what is
happening now. And when now becomes yesterday, we forget it ever happened. Delay is crucial to
understanding any phenomenon involving process.

Unfortunately, Muslims who do not study their religion imagine Islam as a list of rules. This is
understandable when the transformations to society Islam creates are no longer utilized by the
populace. In actuality only 4% of the Qur'an is related to guidelines and rules. The remaining 96% is
split in two types. 48% is related to the future. Constant reminder of the ramifications from our
actions today. Descriptions, warnings and glad tidings for both the good and the evil. The results of
general corruption are addressed as well as the results of many specific actions. The Ruler of the Day
of Accountability is stretching out to warn us, “...let every person look to what he has sent forth for
tomorrow...” --59:18 Do not allow the enjoyments of this short life to deceive one's self into a stupor
of amusement and allow the delay in our actions to entrap us.

The remaining 48% of verses concern the past. Similitudes, stories from the past which are similar to
events we will face. Examples from past civilizations, prophets and individuals from which we can
draw lessons. “...Such are the similitudes which We put forward to mankind that they may reflect.” --
59:21 Theses stories from the past are presented to us for comparison in the future. The choices and
mistakes of numerous civilizations followed by the results their actions earned them. These stories are
lessons for our future. As if to say “If you act as they did, this is what will befall you as it did them. So
think about your future!” So the 48% of Qur'an concerning stories from the past is revealed to guide
our future.

Even the 4% of rules are advice to help safeguard our future from actions we will regret upon our
accounting. In this way, 100% of the Noble Qur'an relates to our future directly or indirectly. The
entire revelation entails Allah mercifully offering advice and guidance encouraging mankind to
consider his future. To recognize the delay in results our actions have and to live with those future
ramifications in mind.

Islam and the Present

Systemic delay in any system also impacts our evaluation of the present. And that evaluation is
determinant in our decision making. For example, when evaluating a Presidency, we cannot base our
conclusions on the present economic environment. Because the process resulting in our current state
occurred from actions taken in the past. Likewise, actions taken today will not ripen into results until
the future. Perhaps across various times in the future.

The ramifications of our personal choices today will not appear until the future. And our current state
should not be used when evaluating the effectiveness of our current actions. Status, prosperity and
power are measurements normally used to determine success. However, this is an non-systemic
approach. The prosperity we have now may quickly slip away in the Hereafter from the poor choices
we make today. Likewise, just and moral actions we make today may not result in benefit until much
later. Our Creator summarizes this concept briefly by stating, “Not equal are the dwellers of the Fire
and the dwellers of the Paradise. The dwellers of Paradise, they are the successful.”-59:20
Success in this life is of little value if it results in great and lasting sorrow later. Likewise, the absence
of worldly desires like wealth, comfort or image are poor indicators for gauging the results of a
righteous life. The delay means actions whose effects will ripen in the future should not be evaluated
by our current state. Your worldly status is of little consequence when determining the prosperity of
your life.

Success in the the next life is the only success. And remembering the delay inherent in the systemic
and process nature of life can guide us towards choices that maximize that success.

Work Long-Term
Introduction
Building long-term goals is essential to systems analysis and the primary focus of Islam. Satisfaction
with short-term gains is a primary detriment systems thinking and Islam hope to dispel. Long-term
does not refer to when something will happen; but to how long something takes to build. Saving for
retirement is something an investor does a little every month for decades. Procrastinating any effort
towards retirement makes it not a goal at all. Too often procrastinating something into the future is
justified by saying its “in the long-term.” Doing charity is not a long-term goal. However, we justify
not doing charity by saying its a long-term goal.

As humans we have many wants. Some of them take longer to accomplish than others. Satisfying my
hunger can take a few minutes. While getting an education takes years. Building a successful family is
a life long project. Goals are worked towards regularly. While fantasies are ideas that enter our mind
and we think would be nice. All too often "dream" is used to make fantasies seem like goals.

Long-term goals are crucial to success. Otherwise we live hand-to-mouth for years. We'll end up in
the same job, apartment and situation without working towards bettering ourselves. Adding one brick
at a time, you can construct a home.

Short-term goals produce results much sooner. This is not a bad thing. I don't want my hunger to take
days to satisfy. But some short-term gains directly impede the development of long-term goals.
Survival and sustainability are often much more dependent upon long-term goals. Long-term can also
be more critical if eventually the short-term gains are no longer viable. One cannot work as hard at 70
years old as he does at 20. Without developing our retirement, we'll be scrambling to find work.

Human tendency towards our immediate environment is the problem. Our focus is significantly biased
toward now and here. If I'm OK right now, later is of little consequence. At least until it becomes now.
Our feelings motivate us. Whatever makes us happy we like and what makes us upset we don't. But
since our feelings are usually a reaction, they are unguided. We don't have our feelings, they have us.
And this creates a tendency towards whatever drives those reactions.

Our immediate environment is far more likely to evoke an emotional response than future
circumstances. Even if those circumstances are certain or happen regularly. Simply not being here and
now is enough for our concern to drain. Hearing about warfare across the ocean and standing in the
middle of the battle could not possibly be more different experiences. Something may be very scary.
But if it won't happen until the future, we're not too worried. Maybe it won't happen? Maybe it won't
be so bad? Maybe I'm just in denial and have no immediate stimuli to force me into consideration and
preparation. Its easy to ignore negative feelings that aren't in front of you. And hard to enjoy positive
feelings that haven't arrived yet.
Effort is required to consider and take steps toward creating a better future. Wandering through life
reacting to whatever I cross is mentally much easier, but far more hazardous. Who would want to
accompany me on a cross country trip after I say "don't worry, we'll find our way some how!"

Building our future now is essential to any phenomenon that results from a process. Anything that
takes steps to create, you can't start when you need it. Even if those steps are close in time. I must
chop the vegetables before starting the stir-fry. Even if chopping does not take too long. Those steps
are required before adding the vegetables. Whatever steps are necessary to achieve something, if you
don't initiate them you will never reach it. No amount of scrambling or increasing production will
produce something right now that you should have started before. Doing it faster or harder won't get
through the steps more quickly. Turning the oven up to 800 degrees won't cook your bread in one-half
the time.

Long-term goals must be addressed for the simple reason that they are long-term. If you ignore
something short-term, then whenever you need it just start the process then. It will finish soon. But
thinking how useful it would be to have a 2-year Masters 1 month before every job interview can't help
you.

Application
Systems often involve long-term processes. Economic, sociological and biological systems all involve
processes which take time to complete. Addressing those processes cannot be postponed until their
need arises. When our immediate environment is the driving force behind action we'll always find
ourselves in regret.

A strategy for the Sloan Business School supply chain simulation described above is to accumulate
ahead of time enough inventory to gradually adjust each division's orders to the eventual demand
change. Increasing inventory however takes time. Waiting until demand increases to push up orders is
exactly what initiated the chaos. Orders must be slightly increased several weeks ahead of time to
accumulate enough inventory to buffer the eventual increase in demand. The factory can't work faster
or harder all of a sudden when the orders come pouring in. Especially when the ordering delay will
postpone new unit arrivals. To have enough inventory surplus on hand when demand changes, we must
accumulate it ahead of time.

Our life in the Hereafter is the result of a life-long process, a long-term goal. A goal which must be
worked towards throughout life. Misconceiving our final abode as merely something that happens in
the future is as the spendthrift who says “I'll worry about retirement when I'm old.”

The overwhelming majority of our time is spent towards the acquisition of short-term goals. These
goals are important. However, the percentage of our effort they garner greatly outweighs their
importance. Even if future goals are equally necessary as present-day, the time necessary toward their
completion necessitates special attention be paid to the long-term. Something easier or quicker to
achieve can be started closer to when it is needed. But effort is necessary to motivate ourselves to work
toward goals that don't offer immediate feedback.
However, regarding our next life the long-term immeasurably outweighs our present life!
Postponement of actions necessary to build our Hereafter, or choices which dismantle it are the result
of inadequate attention paid to the long-term. If we delay the start of investing for retirement until age
55, how will our savings look compared to regular payments starting from college? Taking action
today and continuing into the future can save one's self from the regret all procrastination creates when
our future becomes the immediate environment.

Further exasperating this criticality is the long-term growth of our ability itself. Perhaps by age 55,
we'll have accumulated too many expenses and debt from a lifetime of living for today. We'll never
begin this overwhelming future savings we dreamed in our youth. A life spent obsessed with this world
will not hit a certain age and “now its time to be pious.” Our capacity to do good is a long-term
processes which itself must be developed. A spendthrift cannot turn on a dime and act with years of
investment experience even though he wishes to. Likewise, postponing 'amilus sahliheen, righteous
actions, until a fantastical old age when “we'll have time,” will result in a mindset incapable of piety. A
lifetime of behavior cannot be flip-flopped over night.

Throughout life we must invest in our future. The Hereafter is far greater in time and severity. The
final result of our life is a conclusion based upon the actions we take throughout it. These actions must
be addressed before our immediate environment brings their importance to life. And our actions over
the long-term will either grow or diminish our ability to perform 'amilus sahliheen.

"The competition(in this world) diverts you. Until you visit the graves. Nay! Soon you shall come to
know." --102:1-3

Eroding Goals
Introduction
System archetypes are established patterns which exhibit themselves in various phenomena. A
sequence of events which occurs repeatedly and whose behavior is modeled. Upon recognizing an
established archetype in a specific situation, the results of and remedy to that situation can be
determined through knowledge of the archetype's typical behavior. “Archetypes are effective tools for
beginning to answer the question, 'Why do we keep seeing the same problems recur over time?”(1)

Eroding Goals is an archetype which deals with a gap between expectations and performance. We often
assume that what is achieved is the best possible. If performance did not meet expectations, they must
have been too high. So lowering goals to the previously achieved results will eliminate the expectation
gap. Gap = Goal - Actual

However, often we achieve some amount below the established goal regardless of our full potential.
Most drivers average 5mph above the speed limit. Raising the limit from 55 to 65 will only raise the
average speed from 60 to 70. Raising the limit involved an assumption that drivers wanted to
specifically travel 60mph and a new limit of 65 would create a 5mph margin. However, travelers just
want to drive 5mph above the limit until it reaches some genuine personal limit which is usually far
above safety standards. The gap between the goal speed and actual speed is a function of the gap itself.
Actual = Goal - Gap
Gap = Goal - (Goal – Gap)
Lowering expectations to align them with results often spurs a furthering lowering of results and the
gap remains constant. Assume for example some employees routinely show up 5 minutes late to the
daily meeting. Establishing a delay of 5 minutes to begin the meeting will undoubtedly give many
attendants the idea to show up 10 minutes late. Because the genuine cause of their arrival time is that
they procrastinate leaving their desk until the starting time of the meeting. Knowing you won't start till
5 after means they won't leave until 5 after and arrive by 10 after.

This is not always the case. But when it is, the Eroding Goals archetype applies. The problems from
and solutions to this archetype will be useful to improving the situation. More importantly, non-
systemic solutions may waste time and resources in failed attempts toward improvement.

Islam
Our worldly life involves fitnah. Trial and tests, difficulties and luxuries; fitnah are whatever bring out
our true nature. The Qur'an reveals "...Allah thus puts you to the test to bring out your true convictions,
and to bring out what is in your hearts. And Allah is well-aware what is in your hearts" –3:154

Fatana, the root from which fitnah is derived, means to prove gold or silver under a furnace. Extreme
heat tests the purity of gold. Difficulties and tribulation are presented to us as a test. Luxuries and
power are presented to us as a test. Situations, experiences and encounters are all created to bring out
what is in our hearts. And for those choices will we be held accountable.

Much can be said upon the topic of fitnah. With regard to Eroding Goals a less discussed perspective
becomes apparent; the fitnah of remembrance. When everything is going fine, your job is great, the
kids are perfect and the sun is shinning human beings are grateful and content, right? If that were true
they'd be angels. And we're certainly no angels. Our Creator knows the hearts of mankind. The more
we have, the less grateful we are and more self-centered we become. As concern for our worldly
desires grow, we become increasingly preoccupied with the Dunya, this world.

Contrastingly, challenges and difficulties can bring out our best potential. To overcome these fitnah we
must perform jihad, effort and struggle against evil. This may be corruption in society or shortcomings
within our own souls. Symbolized in the graph on the following page by two short lines, this struggle
involves a delay. With time, overcoming fitnah can develop within believers taqwa, god-fearing and
remembrance.
Two counter-intuitive processes: the abundance of luxury or power can lead to our destruction in the
next life while difficulties or challenges successfully overcome can open the doors to Paradise. The
dangers of the first loop prompt Ar-Rahman, The Most merciful to those who submit, to provide for us
the second option.

Ihsan describes the best and highest actions of a human being. While Iman describes our belief or
faith. The difference between the two can be seen as a gap. What I envision as the goals for which I
am striving compared to my beliefs and the actions which testify to them. This gap can be altered from
both ends. For explanation we will contemplate the final verses of suratul Fatiha, the opening page of
the Qur'an.

“Guide us to the straight path. The path of those on whom You have bestowed Your Grace, not (of
those) on whom is Your wrath, nor the astray.” --1:6-7 Repeated 20-30 times each day by Muslims,
introspection upon the wisdom of these lines is boundless. By striving through life to develop
ourselves we can increase our iman closer and closer to the example of those on whom is the n'ama, or
grace & blessings, of Allah.

However, the more comfortable we become in this life the lower and lower one's conceptualization of
ihsan becomes. Our ideal attainments become plasma TV and attention at parties. We begin to walk a
path far closer to those who earn the wrath of Allah or have become lost and wandering. Our own
worldly success destroys us. Herein lies the Eroding Goals.

The more preoccupied with this world we become, the lower our standards for piety reach. Regular
charity becomes occasional charity which becomes charity to myself because I deserve it. Defense of
justice becomes occasional concern for others which becomes enforcing what benefits me most. Lower
and lower our image of ihasn, the best actions of humanity, becomes.
God describes to mankind some of his characteristics in suratul Hashr. “He is Allâh, none has the right
to be worshiped but He, the All-Knower of the unseen and the seen. He is the Most Compassionate, the
Most Merciful.” --59:22 Only Allah understands that which is hidden and unseen. His mercy and
compassion is showered upon mankind in ways of which we are unaware. Fitnah, trials and
tribulations, are the unseen protection of Allah offered to believers from this Eroding Goals.

Our Sustainer wishes not for the believers to become trapped by the delusions of this life. We will
unwittingly transform our temporary comforts into ingratitude and poor behavior. Encouraging
mankind to remember their final day and The Ruler of that accounting, fitnah are provided to develop
our iman. Through jihad against the corruptions within ourselves and our society mankind can develop
over time taqwa, god-consciousness. The delay in this step and the effort it requires makes the upper
loop far more attractive. Easy times and relaxation! Or so it seems.

As most people become aware through life, we rarely find true peace when our concern is preoccupied
with our worldly desires. And more importantly, this behavior will cause the lowering of our goals to
meet our lagging iman. As our goals droop, our iman will slide even further. Year after year we'll
become more and more comfortable with corrupted behavior. The lower our goals are set, the lower
we'll perform, prompting lower goals. Fitnah are offered as a protection to those who believe. The
only cost is time and effort.

“O you who believe! Taqwa Allah(fear God and keep your duty to Him). And let every person look to
what he has sent forth for tomorrow. And taqwa Allah, verily Allah is All-Aware of what you do. And
be not like those who forgot Allah and He caused them to forget their ownselves. Those are the
transgressors.” --59:18-19

Conclusion
Systems Thinking offers insight into behavior and phenomena which involve interaction, process and
complexity. Three attributes heavily involved in our time during this life. Islam, when understood and
implemented properly, offers humanity a perfected system of life. Systems Thinking is not necessary
to augment Islam. But the design of modern techniques and analysis can help shed light upon and
display the benefits of this deen, or way of life, sent to mankind by our Creator, Sustainer and Judge.

Bibliography
1. Braun, William. “The System Archetypes”