Fallon Research & Communications, Inc.

WASHINGTON, DC: 202-263-7292 COLUMBUS, OH: 614-341-7005

FAX: 202-318-0346 MAIL: P.O. Box 12181, Columbus, Ohio 43212

February 9, 2011

TO: Interested Parties

FR: Paul Fallon

RE: Survey Data on the Proposed Streetcar System

Last week, I conducted an omnibus survey to measure voter attitudes and test various issues of
importance to my local clients in the greater Cincinnati area. I also included some questions for
public dissemination that might be of interest to you because they address local attitudes about
the proposed streetcar system. The results may provide valuable insight to anyone who has an
interest in transit issues, local public affairs or electoral politics in Cincinnati and Hamilton
County.

Most Voters Think It Is a Bad Idea

Overall, just 19% of Hamilton County voters think the proposed streetcar is a good idea, while a
whopping 75% think it is a bad idea, and only 6% have mixed opinions or are unsure. Within
the city, only 28% of voters surveyed think it is a good idea, compared with 13% of voters in
county suburbs and townships. It rated highest among African-Americans (33% good idea) and
Democrats (31%). It is most dimly viewed by men (78% bad idea), Republicans (87%) and
those residents living in townships and suburbs on the West side of the county (83%).

Despite That, the Possible Charter Amendment Could Go Either Way

Surprisingly, despite a clear absence of affinity for the streetcar system, a proposed charter
amendment to prohibit the city from “spending any money from any source whatsoever on the
design, engineering, construction or operation of a streetcar system until Dec. 31, 2020” might
encounter some difficulty passing. While the actual ballot language may look decidedly
different from the ballot simulation that was tested -- and could pivotally affect the outcome, as
wording differences often do -- only 45% of City of Cincinnati voters would vote for the
amendment, if the election was held today. Those most inclined to vote for the amendment are
30 to 44 year-olds (54%), white voters (54%) and Republicans (65%). The strongest opposition
to the proposed spending prohibition amendment comes from African-American voters (55%)
and Democrats (55%). With an estimated overall margin of sampling error of +/- 5.6% for the
City of Cincinnati voters who were asked about the amendment, the results indicate a potentially
close and polarizing campaign at this time. Since he has an overall favorable rating of 48%
among city voters, Mayor Mark Mallory’s voice could be an influential one in the public debate
about the amendment, especially among those city voter sub-groups with whom he is most
popular, such as African-Americans (66%), senior citizens (50%) and Democrats (64%).

Doubts About Its Impact

One of the reasons for the ambivalence may be doubts about how much it will bolster the local
economy. Overall, a combined total of 39% of city voters think that, once it is finished, the
streetcar system will strengthen and improve the local economy and businesses in the downtown
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area either a lot (15%) or, at least, somewhat (24%). Those who are most optimistic about its
potential future impact are 30 to 44 year-olds (33% a lot or somewhat), African-Americans
(48%), women (30%) and Democrats (43%). Those who are most pessimistic about the
streetcar’s potential ability to strengthen and improve the local economy and businesses in the
downtown area are senior citizens (a combined total of 72% think it will have little or no
impact), white voters (75%), men (73%) and Republicans (82%). Although they would not have
standing to vote on the possible city charter amendment prohibiting spending on the proposed
streetcar system, only 20% of voters in the county’s suburbs and townships think that the
proposed streetcar system will strengthen and improve the local economy and businesses in the
downtown area either a lot (6%) or somewhat (14%), while a combined total of 78% think it will
have little (31%) or no impact (47%).

If You Build It, Will They Come?

Although predicting future behaviors so far in advance is an imprecise enterprise, it appears that,
at this time, there is limited interest in using the street car system, when it is completed. Overall,
just 14% of voters say they plan to use it a lot (4%) or somewhat (10%), when it is finished.
Those sub-groups who say that they are most likely to use it are city voters (23% a lot or
somewhat), 30 to 44 year-olds (21%), African-Americans (26%), and voters who reside on the
East side of the City of Cincinnati, which includes much of the downtown area (28%). On the
other hand, those who are comparatively less inclined to think they will use it are Republicans
(5%) and voters living in townships and suburbs on the West side of the county (6%).

A final cautionary note is that, as a veteran of many public funding issues and campaigns,
including those for a variety of types of transit services, I think it is important to point out that
there are numerous instances in which votes for, or
against, transit referendums often have little or nothing to
do with ridership intentions. National survey data About
indicates that many Americans believe they will, in some
way, benefit from having expanded and improved public Paul
transit systems in their communities, even if they never
personally use them for their own travel and commuting
Fallon…
needs.

Please feel free to call me at 614-341-7005, if you want
to discuss this information in greater detail. You may
disseminate this data in any way you like, but please
provide proper attribution.
This information is based on survey research that was conducted
through telephone interviews of 502 randomly-selected registered
voters in Hamilton County, Ohio, with valid residential and cellular
telephone numbers that have histories of voting in recent odd-year
November elections. The interviews were performed during the
period of February 2, 2011 to February 4, 2011. The overall
estimated margin of sampling error is +/- 4.37%, based on a
confidence level of 95%, although it varies for each individual
question. This means that if this survey was repeated, 95 times out
of 100 the results would be within plus or minus 4.37% of those
provided herein. Adjustments made to account for oversampling of
302 Cincinnati city voters, so they are represented in proportion to
their actual percentage of Hamilton County’s electorate.
Paul Fallon is an Ohio-based public opinion
researcher, political pollster and advisor for
levy committees, local government agencies,
school districts, interest groups, political
candidates and trade associations. He
specializes in land-use policy research,
education, transit and public funding ballot
issues, and referendums.
He has worked on issues and campaigns in
more than 34 different states throughout the
country. He has served as the pollster for
numerous campaigns to get voter approval for
public funding requests for transit services,
school districts and government agencies of all
sizes, ranging from Florida to California.

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