Full text available at: http://iwpr.

net/report-news/museveni-set-re-election-pos
twar-uganda
Ugandans go to the polls on February 18 for what will be only the second multi-p
arty elections since President Yoweri Museveni came to power in 1986. He won a l
andslide victory in the first democratic presidential and parliamentary ballot i
n 2006 – although much has changed since then.
The LRA insurgency is over, the economy is the focus of attention and the opposi
tion are better prepared. Blake Evans-Pritchard, IWPR Africa Editor, believes th
e upcoming polls will be more closely contested – but suggests Museveni will ultim
ately triumph again.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
How have things changed in Uganda since the last election was held?
The Uganda of 2011 is very different to that of 2006. In 2006, the country had j
ust emerged from two decades of brutal civil war, which had exacted a huge toll
on the civilian population in the north. It was not until 2005 that the Lord’s Res
istance Army, LRA – Uganda’s notorious rebel army led by Joseph Kony – was successfull
y chased out of the country.
At the time of the 2006 presidential and parliamentary election, thousands of pe
ople were still confined to camps for internally displaced people, IDPs, and the
massive effort to return them back home had yet to begin. Now the focus in the
north is less about ending the rebel insurgency and more about bringing developm
ent to the region.
This means that people’s priorities have changed. They are not fighting for peace
anymore, but for economic expansion, jobs and a better life.
The other big change is that in 2006 opposition candidates were not fully prepar
ed to contest an election against the incumbent president.
This was the first time that a multi-party election had been held in the country
for a generation, and the tendency was for the opposition to focus on the faili
ngs of the incumbent government rather than policy initiatives of their own.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Is the outcome of the election inevitable?
It seems pretty certain that Museveni will win another term in office. Uganda’s mu
lti-party system is still in its infancy, and thus affords the incumbent preside
nt huge advantages over the opposition. In particular, while Museveni remains in
power he can continue to run his campaign out of government offices, use offici
al transportation and has an abundance of manpower at his disposal. He also cont
inues to draw a state salary while campaigning.
Moreover, for the past five years, Museveni has been in a position to lobby for
his re-election in a way that members of the opposition have not been. Some sugg
est that the resurfacing of roads in key parts of the country were a way of winn
ing votes.
This said, though, there could still be some surprises and two strong opposition
candidates have emerged.
One is Kizza Besigye, a former colonel in the Ugandan army. He is standing for t
he Forum for Democratic Change, FDC, and was the 2006 runner-up with 37 per cent
 of the vote. A charismatic politician, Besigye is particularly popular among yo
unger people, who are less enthused about maintaining continuity than their pare
nts are.
The other main candidate, Olara Otunnu, is widely regarded as flag-bearer for gr
ievances in northern Uganda, which will be an important battleground in the comi
ng election as opposition candidates find it harder to win votes from their trad
itional supporters. Having worked for eight years at the United Nations, Otunnu
also has strong international credentials, which are important to the Ugandan pe
ople.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What are the issues that will decide the election?
The end of the 20-year rebel insurgency in the north of the country has changed
the shape of elections in Uganda.
The north has traditionally been an important opposition stronghold, but the end
of the civil war and the influx of development money into the region have led t
o a more favourable perception of the ruling National Resistance Movement, NRM.
It is true that opposition politicians still enjoy a great deal of influence in
the region, but the outcome is not as certain as it was in the past.
The Baganda, Uganda’s largest ethnic group, are also likely to play a pivotal role
in the forthcoming election.
The traditional kingdom of Buganda stretches across the country’s central region,
and includes the capital Kampala. Historically, leaders of Uganda have always tr
ied to win support from this ethnic group.
In 2006, the Bagandan vote was an important factor in securing Museveni another
term in office. This time around, their support for the NRM is less obvious.
In 2009, the Baganda clashed with security forces in Kampala after the governmen
t prevented their king from visiting a part of their territory.
Furthermore, the Baganda strongly oppose a controversial bill backed by the gove
rnment, which seeks to regulate the activities of traditional leaders.
On top of all this, you have the traditional ethnic attachment that always domin
ates politics in Africa. This means that Museveni is likely to do well in his ho
meland of western Uganda.
Speaking more broadly, many Ugandans are now looking to the future of their coun
try – which means that they are particularly concerned with economic development a
nd carving out a better life for themselves and their children.
Any politician that can convince the Ugandan people that this is what they stand
for should do well.