GEO1209: Global climate systems

The present interglacial

Dan Charman
 The present interglacial

1. A rapid start
2. Millennial changes and astronomical forcing
3. Global consequences
4. Cyclical change
5. The last millennium
1. The end of the last
glacial - a rapid
warming...
Holocene Last glacial
 2. Millennial scale changes
The old school view from 1977

Cooling

Optimum
warmth

Rapid
warming

Godwin, Chapter 9 in: Shotton (1977) British Quaternary Studies

 Ideas still OK on basics
Warmer summers early-mid
Holocene and recent gradual cooling
in NW Europe
Optimum
Cooling warmth WHY??

Rapid
warming

European temperature changes

based on pollen
Davis and Brewer (2003) QSR 22,1701
Changing solar radiation in the northern hemisphere
Last glacial Holocene

Big changes from

6000 to present
 Remember Milankovitch?? (see lecture 4)

11,000 years ago: N hemisphere summer

Today: S hemisphere summer

Aphelion

Perihelion

Smithson et al Fig 9.11

• Eccentricity: How round is the orbit?

• Tilt: What angle is the earth tilted at? (sometimes called ‘obliquity’)
• Precession: The season in which the earth is nearest/furthest
from the sun
Precessional forcing: changing seasonal insolation

Northern high
latitudes have
seen biggest
Mid N latitude
change in
(e.g. NW Europe)
summer
insolation

Wanner et al (2008)
3. What were the consequences of
changes in Holocene precessional
forcing?
Changes in climate since 6000 years ago – review by Wanner et al (2008)

Blue: precipitation related proxies, Red: temperature related proxies

Decline in northern mid-high latitude temperature
(at least in summer)

Years before present

Decline in Asian monsoon with reduced continental heating

Years before present

 Lake level changes since
6000 years ago

Global lake level status at 6000 cal yr BP compared to present (Wanner et al, 2008)
Glacier fluctuations
between 6000 years
ago and present
Long term N hemisphere
advance but short term
(recent) retreat
4. Cyclical changes in Holocene climates?

• Evidence from ice

rafted debris (IRD)
in ocean sediments
• Similar to evidence
from Heinrich
events in glacial
periods

0.1mm
 More IRD
(cooler)

‘Bond cycles’
(Bond et al., 2001)

Less IRD
(warmer)

• Every c.1500 years

• Causes?
– Solar
– ocean/ice?
• Impacts such as cooler,
wetter NW Europe and
many others (e.g.
monsoon...)
• Lots of uncertainty
5. The last 1000 years: Is temperature higher now than at any time in the recent past?

IPCC (2001) based on work by Michael Mann and others

5. The last 1000 years: Is temperature higher now than at any time in the recent past?

What about the evidence

for the Medieval warm
period?

IPCC (2001) based on work by Michael Mann and others

Recent compilations: some variations but generally support idea of recent
temperatures outside of natural climate variability

IPCC (2007) Fig TS20

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-ts.pdf
Forcing of climate change over the past 1000 years.....
 Take home points….
• Holocene appears relatively stable climatically
• Precessional change is biggest driver of multi-millennial
climate change in northern hemisphere
• But some big shorter-term variations – possibly cyclical
linked to solar forcing or internal climate system
• Last 1000 years a recent focus of detailed research –
context of recent observational record of climate change
and understanding role of natural and anthropogenic
forcing

Next week...... Is our climate changing?

Main reading:
• Smithson, P. Addison, K. and Atkinson, K. (2008) Fundamentals of the
Physical Environment. Chapter 9 pages 175-182.

Further reading and example relevant journal papers:

• Roberts, C.N. (1998) The Holocene. Blackwell. Chapter 4: Early Holocene
adaptations.
• Charman, D.J. (2010) Centennial climate variability in the British Isles during
the mid-late Holocene. Quaternary Science Reviews, 29, 1539-1554.
• Wanner, H. et al. (2008). Mid- to Late Holocene climate change: an overview.
Quaternary Science Reviews 27, 1791–1828.
• Bond, G. et al. (2001). Persistent Solar Influence on North Atlantic Climate
During the Holocene. Science 294, 2130-2136.