Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Pat Eberlin
Agenda
• Project Updates
• Kootenai County Retail Sales
• Current Vacancy Rates
• Current Asking Rents
• Taxable Retail Sales
• 2010 Overview
• 2011 Forecast & Recommendations
The Pointe at Post Falls
EXPO at Post Falls
8
Percent
5
2009 2010
Current Asking Rents
Class A Buildings Class B Buildings Class C Buildings
•Prime locations •Slightly older buildings •Functionally obsolescent
•Newer buildings •Good locations •Older neighborhoods
•$15 - $20 per SF NNN •$9 - $12 per SF NNN •$6 - $9 per SF NNN
Taxable Sales
$1,300,000,000
$1,200,000,000
$1,100,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$900,000,000
$800,000,000
2010 Overview
• Tenants Using Negotiation Leverage
• Asking Rents vs. Actual Rents
• Infill/Grocery Anchored Retail Performance
• Net Positive Absorption
• Limited New Construction
• Local Taxable Sales Down
• National Taxable Sales Up
• 2010 Turning Point
2011 Forecast and Recommendations
• Tenant Retention and Creativity Key
• Reality Check
• Rent Concessions & Tenant Improvements
• Hands on Approach
• Consumer Confidence on the Rise
• Challenges vs. Opportunity
Thank You
For Slides
• Email pat@cbcsr.com
• Visit www.cbcsr.com
Office
Craig Hunter, CCIM
Class “A” Office Class “B” Office Class “C” Office
•Quality of construction •Slightly older buildings •Functionally obsolescent
•Newer buildings •Good locations •Older neighborhoods
•$16 - $21 + NNN •$10 - $16 + NNN •$6 - $10 + NNN
•NNN Charges $4-$6/sf •NNN Charges $3-$5/sf •NNN Charges $2-$4/sf
$5.52
3,835,854 Total SF Surveyed
Coeur d’Alene
Total Sq.Ft.
Post Falls
Rathdrum
Hayden
% Vacant 5% 10%
600 N. Thornton Street 8680 Wayne Boulevard
Post Falls, ID 83854 Coeur d’Alene, ID 83815
17,000 Square Feet 7,686 Square Feet
122 E. Poplar Avenue 1336 W. Kathleen Avenue
180
Index, December 2000 = 100
160
140
120
100
80
2204 Ironwood Place, Coeur d’Alene, Idaho
Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI)
National – All Property Type Aggregate
180
Index, December 2000 = 100
160
140
120
100
80
Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI)
National – All Property Type Aggregate
180
Index, December 2000 = 100
160
140
120
100
80
Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI)
National – All Property Type Aggregate
180
Index, December 2000 = 100
160
140
120
100
80
Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI)
National – All Property Type Aggregate
180
Index, December 2000 = 100
160
140
120
100
80
Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI)
National – All Property Type Aggregate
180
Index, December 2000 = 100
160
140
120
100
80
Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI)
National – All Property Type Aggregate
180
Index, December 2000 = 100
160
140
120
100
80
10%
9%
7.88%
8%
7%
6% 5.39%
5.13% 5.23%
5% 4.45%
4%
3.25%
3%
2.02% 2.03%
2%
1%
0.26% 0.26%
0%
WSJ Prime 1 Mo. LIBOR 3 Mo. LIBOR 5 Yr. Treasury Federal Home
Loan Seattle
"Bullet" Index
2006 Today
Thank You
For Slides
• Email craig@cbcsr.com
• Visit www.cbcsr.com
Multi-Family
Glenn Sather
• Where we are today
• Trends for tomorrow
Where we are today
Where we are today
New Construction Permits
Kathy Reed House
Trends for Tomorrow
Demographics
• Larger Tenant Pool
Supply
• Less Apartment Stock
Economy
• More Household Formations
Thank You
For Slides
• Email glenn@cbcsr.com
• Visit www.cbcsr.com
Industrial/Flex-Tech
Dani Kramer, CCIM
Industrial Market – Kootenai Vs. Spokane
Know Your Competition
Kootenai Vs. Spokane
Kootenai Vs. Spokane
•The state of Idaho does not have an estate tax. The state of
Washington has an estate tax with the rate ranging from 10% to
19% based upon a taxable estate value range of $0 to $9 million
and above (with some exemptions and deductions available)
Source: Jobs Plus, Inc., State of Idaho, State of Washington, taxfoundation.org, idahosif.org
Kootenai Vs. Spokane
•2008 figure – Idaho taxpayers pay $3,670 per capita in state and
local taxes compared to Washington taxpayers who pay $4,334
per capita
Source: Jobs Plus, Inc., State of Idaho, State of Washington, taxfoundation.org, idahosif.org
Kootenai Vs. Spokane
•Workers Compensation rates in Idaho are based on a per $100
of payroll. In Washington, rates are based on per hours worked.
Source: Jobs Plus, Inc., State of Idaho, State of Washington, taxfoundation.org, idahosif.org
Kootenai Vs. Spokane
Some Relocations to Idaho - 2010
www.thepark.biz
Industrial Market – Spokane Vacancy Report
Industrial Vacancy – Historical Average
10.0%
9.0% 8.3%
8.1%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0% 5.5% 5.6%
Percentage
4.8% 5.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
Source: Mark Lucas, SIOR & Tracy Lucas, CCIM
Industrial Market – Kootenai Vacancy Report
Industrial Market – Vacancy vs. Absorption
2010 Industrial Market Rents - Kootenai
*MLS Statistics/Info
Some 2010 Industrial Sales
*MLS Statistics/Info
Local Companies Expanding
- Industrial Market -
Kuma Stoves
•Added +-10,000 SF
•Total Facility is now
+- 30,000 SF
Local Companies Expanding
- Industrial Market -
C & S Glass Company
New Building: +-8,500 SF
Local Companies Expanding
- Industrial Market -
Accurate Molding Plastics
Total of 60,000 SF
Local Companies Expanding
- Industrial Market -
Rocky Mountain Construction Group
Expanded into
additional 12,000 SF
Manufacturing Employment
Job Sector Employment Effect on Economy
Job Sector - For Every 100 Jobs
Retail
Industrial/Manufacturing
Buck Knives
Companies Adding Employees
- Industrial Market -
Empire Aerospace
Companies Adding Employees
- Industrial Market -
Ground Force
2004
2005
2008
2009
2010
2006
2007
Source: http://lmi.idaho.gov/Employment/NonfarmJobsCES/tabid/760/Default.aspx
Manufacturing Employment
Current Employment Estimates for Idaho: Manufacturing
Source: http://lmi.idaho.gov/Employment
Manufacturing Employment
Current Employment Estimates for Idaho: Manufacturing
0.08 % Change from January
0.06
0.04
0.02
-0.02
-0.04
-0.06
-0.08
-0.1
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Max Increase
Source: http://lmi.idaho.gov/Employment
Looking Forward to 2011 - Industrial Market
Lou Holtz
Thank You
For Slides
• Email dani@cbcsr.com
• Visit www.cbcsr.com
Investments
Mike King, CCIM
Thank You
For Slides
• Email mike@cbcsr.com
• Visit www.cbcsr.com
L
J obs
ocation
L
J obs
ocation
L
J obs
ocation
Coeur d'Alene MSA Employment
Recession
Coeur d'Alene MSA Private Employment
Coeur d'Alene MSA Government Employment
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
70000
65000
60000
55000
50000
45000
$1,800
$1,800
$1,600
$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400 $500
$410
$200 $310
$0
2008/2009
2008/2009 2010
2010 2011 2012+
2012/2013
Sam Zell: “Wave of distressed
assets won’t come”
• Sept. 16th conference
– Interest rates are too low, banks holding on as
interest carry cost is very low
– Construction is at a standstill and not expected to
recover anytime soon
– Imbalance of supply & demand; still lots of money
chasing too few deals
Recommendations
• Lock in Loans
• Risk-Return Tradeoff
“Keep expectations low”
- Warren Buffett
Recommendations
• Lock in Loans
• Risk-Return Tradeoff
• Buy Land
Recommendations
• Lock in Loans
• Risk-Return Tradeoff
• Buy Land
• Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
Thank You
For Slides
• Email mike@cbsr.com
• Visit www.cbcsr.com
Essential Ingredients for Growth
No Pressure… no “diamond”
No Irritation… no “pearl”
No Struggle… no “butterfly”
No Endurance… no “perfection”
Author Unknown
Gross Domestic Product
Consumer Confidence
US Public Debt as % of GDP
Are you optimistic about 2011?
• Yes
• No
• Maybe
• Cautious
John Wooden
1910 - 2010