Disney Fiscal

Year and Quarter Revenue in Coded

X Month quarter Ends Actual revenue Y GNP Deflator 1982 $ Time
1983-1 Dec-82 203.7 101.7 200.3 -19.5
1983-2 Mar-83 239.7 102.5 233.9 -18.5
1983-3 Jun-83 288.9 103.3 279.7 -17.5
1983-4 Sep-83 298.8 104.2 286.8 -16.5
1984-1 Dec-83 224.9 105.4 213.4 -15.5
1984-2 Mar-84 244.3 106.5 229.4 -14.5
1984-3 Jun-84 314.6 107.3 293.2 -13.5
1984-4 Sep-84 313.6 108.2 289.8 -12.5
1985-1 Dec-84 232.6 109 213.4 -11.5
1985-2 Mar-85 270 109.7 246.1 -10.5
1985-3 Jun-85 368.8 110.6 333.5 -9.5
1985-4 Sep-85 386.1 111.3 346.9 -8.5
1986-1 Dec-85 274.1 112.2 244.3 -7.5
1986-2 Mar-86 360.2 112.4 320.5 -6.5
1986-3 Jun-86 434 113.2 383.4 -5.5
1986-4 Sep-86 455.6 114.6 397.6 -4.5
1987-1 Dec-86 359 115.1 311.9 -3.5
1987-2 Mar-87 414.8 116 357.6 -2.5
1987-3 Jun-87 534.4 117.1 456.4 -1.5
1987-4 Sep-87 526 117.9 446.1 -0.5
1988-1 Dec-87 385.7 118.6 325.2 0.5
1988-2 Mar-88 438 119.2 367.4 1.5
1988-3 Jun-88 599.9 120.6 497.4 2.5
1988-4 Sep-88 618.4 121.9 507.3 3.5
1989-1 Dec-88 511.6 123.3 414.9 4.5
1989-2 Mar-89 580.1 124.5 465.9 5.5
1989-3 Jun-89 727.9 125.9 578.2 6.5
1989-4 Sep-89 775.8 126.9 611.3 7.5
1990-1 Dec-89 619.5 127.9 484.4 8.5
1990-2 Mar-90 710.2 129.7 547.6 9.5
1990-3 Jun-90 858.1 131.8 651.1 10.5
1990-4 Sep-90 831.8 138 602.8 11.5
1991-1 Dec-90 623.8 140.5 444.0 12.5
1991-2 Mar-91 671 141 475.9 13.5
1991-3 Jun-91 759 141.8 535.3 14.5
1991-4 Sep-91 810.8 142.7 568.2 15.5
1992-1 Dec-91 662.4 143.8 460.6 16.5
1992-2 Mar-92 774.1 144.7 535.0 17.5
1992-3 Jun-92 890.5 145.6 611.6 18.5
1992-4 Sep-92 996.2 146.5 680.0 19.5
 Deseasonalized
revenues acc to trend Reseasonalised
line (Deseasonalised* Seasonal Error in forecast
x (Modified) y=5.047x+208.7 SI)/100 Index RSI-Act REV Squared Error
-39 11.9 9.78 82.43003 -193.92 37604.20
-37 22.0 20.15 91.74635 -219.55 48202.90
-35 32.1 36.33 113.351 -252.57 63789.25
-33 42.1 47.41 112.4726 -251.39 63198.90
-31 52.2 43.06 82.43003 -181.84 33064.36
-29 62.3 57.19 91.74635 -187.11 35009.43
-27 72.4 82.10 113.351 -232.50 54055.67
-25 82.5 92.82 112.4726 -220.78 48744.67
-23 92.6 76.35 82.43003 -156.25 24415.35
-21 102.7 94.24 91.74635 -175.76 30893.18
-19 112.8 127.87 113.351 -240.93 58048.31
-17 122.9 138.23 112.4726 -247.87 61439.54
-15 133.0 109.63 82.43003 -164.47 27051.10
-13 143.1 131.28 91.74635 -228.92 52404.85
-11 153.2 173.63 113.351 -260.37 67790.23
-9 163.3 183.64 112.4726 -271.96 73961.18
-7 173.4 142.91 82.43003 -216.09 46694.99
-5 183.5 168.32 91.74635 -246.48 60751.18
-3 193.6 219.40 113.351 -315.00 99224.36
-1 203.7 229.05 112.4726 -296.95 88176.98
1 213.7 176.19 82.43003 -209.51 43893.72
3 223.8 205.37 91.74635 -232.63 54118.60
5 233.9 265.17 113.351 -334.73 112045.77
7 244.0 274.47 112.4726 -343.93 118290.69
9 254.1 209.47 82.43003 -302.13 91280.33
11 264.2 242.41 91.74635 -337.69 114034.90
13 274.3 310.93 113.351 -416.97 173860.47
15 284.4 319.88 112.4726 -455.92 207865.04
17 294.5 242.76 82.43003 -376.74 141936.34
19 304.6 279.45 91.74635 -430.75 185543.01
21 314.7 356.70 113.351 -501.40 251401.16
23 324.8 365.29 112.4726 -466.51 217631.80
25 334.9 276.04 82.43003 -347.76 120938.72
27 345.0 316.50 91.74635 -354.50 125672.75
29 355.1 402.47 113.351 -356.53 127115.50
31 365.2 410.70 112.4726 -400.10 160078.64
33 375.3 309.32 82.43003 -353.08 124665.84
35 385.3 353.54 91.74635 -420.56 176870.73
37 395.4 448.23 113.351 -442.27 195599.23
39 405.5 456.11 112.4726 -540.09 291693.24
SSE* 4109057.11
 Square of
Trend Line 1 trend line
y=10.45x+196.8 1
-210.75 44415.56
-189.85 36043.02
-168.95 28544.1
-148.05 21918.8
-127.15 16167.12
-106.25 11289.06
-85.35 7284.623
-64.45 4153.803
-43.55 1896.603
-22.65 513.0225
-1.75 3.0625
19.15 366.7225
40.05 1604.003
60.95 3714.903
81.85 6699.423
102.75 10557.56
123.65 15289.32
144.55 20894.7
165.45 27373.7
186.35 34726.32
207.25 42952.56
228.15 52052.42
249.05 62025.9
269.95 72873
290.85 84593.72
311.75 97188.06
332.65 110656
353.55 124997.6
374.45 140212.8 fraction of variation in actual revenues explained by trend & seasonality is=1-(SSE*
395.35 156301.6
416.25 173264.1
437.15 191100.1
458.05 209809.8
478.95 229393.1
499.85 249850
520.75 271180.6
541.65 293384.7
562.55 316462.5
583.45 340413.9
604.35 365238.9
SST 3877407
d & seasonality is=1-(SSE* -0.059744 1-(SSE*/SST)
Disney Fiscal Estimation Variation (Actual
Year and Revenue in revenue -
Quarter 1982 $ Modified X y=10.45x+196.8 Estimation)
1983-1 200.3 -39 -210.75 411.0
1983-2 233.9 -37 -189.85 423.7
1983-3 279.7 -35 -168.95 448.6
1983-4 286.8 -33 -148.05 434.8
1984-1 213.4 -31 -127.15 340.5
1984-2 229.4 -29 -106.25 335.6
1984-3 293.2 -27 -85.35 378.5
1984-4 289.8 -25 -64.45 354.3
1985-1 213.4 -23 -43.55 256.9
1985-2 246.1 -21 -22.65 268.8
1985-3 333.5 -19 -1.75 335.2
1985-4 346.9 -17 19.15 327.8
1986-1 244.3 -15 40.05 204.2
1986-2 320.5 -13 60.95 259.5
1986-3 383.4 -11 81.85 301.5
1986-4 397.6 -9 102.75 294.8
1987-1 311.9 -7 123.65 188.3
1987-2 357.6 -5 144.55 213.0
1987-3 456.4 -3 165.45 290.9
1987-4 446.1 -1 186.35 259.8
1988-1 325.2 1 207.25 118.0
1988-2 367.4 3 228.15 139.3
1988-3 497.4 5 249.05 248.4
1988-4 507.3 7 269.95 237.4
1989-1 414.9 9 290.85 124.1
1989-2 465.9 11 311.75 154.2
1989-3 578.2 13 332.65 245.5
1989-4 611.3 15 353.55 257.8
1990-1 484.4 17 374.45 109.9
1990-2 547.6 19 395.35 152.2
1990-3 651.1 21 416.25 234.8
1990-4 602.8 23 437.15 165.6
1991-1 444.0 25 458.05 -14.1
1991-2 475.9 27 478.95 -3.1
1991-3 535.3 29 499.85 35.4
1991-4 568.2 31 520.75 47.4
1992-1 460.6 33 541.65 -81.0
1992-2 535.0 35 562.55 -27.6
1992-3 611.6 37 583.45 28.2
1992-4 680.0 39 604.35 75.7
Fraction of variability 8576.0
Revenue in 1982 $ 800.0

700.0
680.0
651.1
611.3 602.8
600.0 f(x) = 10.4576184307353 x + 196.818661223593 611.6
578.2 568.2
R² = 0.798779177384469
547.6 535.3535.0
500.0 507.3
497.4 484.4 475.9
456.4 465.9 460.6
446.1 444.0
414.9
400.0 397.6
383.4
346.9 357.6 367.4
333.5
320.5311.9 325.2 Column C
300.0 286.8293.2289.8
279.7 Linear (Column C)
Linear (Column C)
233.9 229.4 246.1244.3
200.0200.3 213.4 213.4

100.0

0.0

Year
-39 200.3
-37 233.9
-35 279.7
-33 286.8
-31 213.4
-29 229.4
-27 293.2
-25 289.8
-23 213.4
-21 246.1
-19 333.5
-17 346.9
-15 244.3
-13 320.5
-11 383.4
-9 397.6
-7 311.9
-5 357.6
-3 456.4
-1 446.1
1 325.2
3 367.4 800
5 497.4
700
7 507.3
9 414.9 600
11 465.9 500
13 578.2
15 611.3 400
17 484.4 300
19 547.6
21 651.1 200
23 602.8 100
25 444.0
0
27 475.9
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37
29 535.3 -100
31 568.2
33 460.6
35 535.0
37 611.6
39 680.0
 Column A
Column B

19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40
Year Deseasonlised Index

1983-1 242.99

1983-2 254.89

1983-3 246.73

1983-4 254.96

1984-1 258.86

1984-2 250.03

1984-3 258.66

1984-4 257.69

1985-1 258.88

1985-2 268.27

1985-3 294.18

1985-4 308.43

1986-1 296.37

1986-2 349.29

1986-3 338.23

1986-4 353.47

1987-1 378.38

1987-2 389.76

1987-3 402.61

1987-4 396.67
1988-1 394.53

1988-2 400.51

1988-3 438.84

1988-4 451.04

1989-1 503.36

1989-2 507.86

1989-3 510.06

1989-4 543.55

1990-1 587.60

1990-2 596.83

1990-3 574.38

1990-4 535.91

1991-1 538.62

1991-2 518.70

1991-3 472.22

1991-4 505.18

1992-1 558.83

1992-2 583.10

1992-3 539.57

1992-4 604.59
 DESEASONALIZED
700.00

600.00
f(x) = 5.04757344200261 x + 208.712452573326 596.83 604.59
R² = 0.910212833539722 587.60 583.10
574.38
558.83
543.55 538.62
535.91 539.57
500.00 510.06
507.86 518.70
503.36 505.18
472.22
451.04
438.84
400.00
402.61 400.51
396.67
394.53 Column C
389.76
378.38
353.47
349.29 Linear (Column C)
Axis Title 338.23
300.00 308.43
296.37
294.18
258.86 268.27
258.88
258.66
257.69
254.89
254.96
246.73 250.03
242.99
200.00

100.00

0.00
1 4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1 4
8 3- 8 3- 8 4- 8 5- 8 6- 8 6- 8 7- 8 8- 8 9- 8 9- 9 0- 9 1- 9 2- 9 2-
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19
Disney Fiscal
Year and Revenue Coded Modified
Quarter Month quarter Ends Actual revenue GNP Deflator in 1982 $ time X Quarter average Centered Average
1983-1 Dec-82 203.7 101.7 200.3 -19.5 -39

1983-2 Mar-83 239.7 102.5 233.9 -18.5 -37

250.1439
1983-3 Jun-83 288.9 103.3 279.7 -17.5 -35 251.78
253.4146
1983-4 Sep-83 298.8 104.2 286.8 -16.5 -33 252.86
252.2986
1984-1 Dec-83 224.9 105.4 213.4 -15.5 -31 253.99
255.6800
1984-2 Mar-84 244.3 106.5 229.4 -14.5 -29 256.06
256.4494
1984-3 Jun-84 314.6 107.3 293.2 -13.5 -27 256.45
256.4536
1984-4 Sep-84 313.6 108.2 289.8 -12.5 -25 258.55
260.6376
1985-1 Dec-84 232.6 109 213.4 -11.5 -23 265.67
270.7020
1985-2 Mar-85 270 109.7 246.1 -10.5 -21 277.84
284.9686
1985-3 Jun-85 368.8 110.6 333.5 -9.5 -19 288.83
292.6940
1985-4 Sep-85 386.1 111.3 346.9 -8.5 -17 301.99
311.2782
1986-1 Dec-85 274.1 112.2 244.3 -7.5 -15 317.52
323.7628
1986-2 Mar-86 360.2 112.4 320.5 -6.5 -13 330.09
336.4269
1986-3 Jun-86 434 113.2 383.4 -5.5 -11 311.39
286.3529
1986-4 Sep-86 455.6 114.6 397.6 -4.5 -9 324.48
362.6095
1987-1 Dec-86 359 115.1 311.9 -3.5 -7 371.73
380.8519
 Moving Average
Ratio(Revenue in 1982
$/Centered Seasonal Deseasonalised
Average)*100 Index SI/100 Revenue
82.43003 0.82 242.99

91.74635 0.92 254.89

111.08 113.351 1.13 246.73

113.41 112.4726 1.12 254.96

84.01 82.43003 0.82 258.86

89.58 91.74635 0.92 250.03

114.33 113.351 1.13 258.66

112.10 112.4726 1.12 257.69

80.32 82.43003 0.8243 258.88

88.59 91.74635 0.917464 268.27

115.45 113.351 1.13351 294.18

114.87 112.4726 1.124726 308.43

76.94 82.43003 0.8243 296.37

97.08 91.74635 0.917464 349.29

123.12 113.351 1.13351 338.23

122.52 112.4726 1.12 353.47

83.91 82.43003 0.82 378.38

1987-2 Mar-87 414.8 116 357.6 -2.5 -5 386.92
392.9979
1987-3 Jun-87 534.4 117.1 456.4 -1.5 -3 394.66
396.3250
1987-4 Sep-87 526 117.9 446.1 -0.5 -1 397.56
398.7908
1988-1 Dec-87 385.7 118.6 325.2 0.5 1 403.92
409.0577
1988-2 Mar-88 438 119.2 367.4 1.5 3 416.70
424.3478
1988-3 Jun-88 599.9 120.6 497.4 2.5 5 435.56
446.7758
1988-4 Sep-88 618.4 121.9 507.3 3.5 7 459.09
471.3993
1989-1 Dec-88 511.6 123.3 414.9 4.5 9 481.49
491.5813
1989-2 Mar-89 580.1 124.5 465.9 5.5 11 488.71
 92.42 91.74635 0.92 389.76

115.63 113.351 1.13 402.61

112.22 112.4726 1.124726 396.67

80.51 82.43003 0.8243 394.53

88.18 91.74635 0.917464 400.51

114.20 113.351 1.13351 438.84

110.50 112.4726 1.124726 451.04

86.17 82.43003 0.8243 503.36

95.34 91.74635 0.917464 507.86

Seasonal Actual
Index revenue
82.4300271 203.7
91.7463529 239.7
113.35098 288.9
112.47264 298.8
1200
82.4300271 224.9
91.7463529 244.3
113.35098 314.6 1000
112.47264 313.6
82.4300271 232.6 800
91.7463529 270
113.35098 368.8 600
112.47264 386.1
82.4300271 274.1 400
91.7463529 360.2
113.35098 434 200
112.47264 455.6
82.4300271 359 0
91.7463529 414.8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 2
113.35098 534.4
112.47264 526
82.4300271 385.7
91.7463529 438
113.35098 599.9
112.47264 618.4
82.4300271 511.6
91.7463529 580.1
113.35098 727.9
112.47264 775.8
82.4300271 619.5
91.7463529 710.2
113.35098 858.1
112.47264 831.8
82.4300271 623.8
91.7463529 671
113.35098 759
112.47264 810.8
82.4300271 662.4
91.7463529 774.1
113.35098 890.5
112.47264 996.2
 Seasonal Index
Actual revenue

17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41
Disney Fiscal
Year and Actual Revenue in
Quarter Month quarter Ends revenue GNP Deflator 1982 $
1983-1 Dec-82 203.7 101.7 200.3
1983-2 Mar-83 239.7 102.5 233.9
1983-3 Jun-83 288.9 103.3 279.7
1983-4 Sep-83 298.8 104.2 286.8
1984-1 Dec-83 224.9 105.4 213.4
1984-2 Mar-84 244.3 106.5 229.4
1984-3 Jun-84 314.6 107.3 293.2
1984-4 Sep-84 313.6 108.2 289.8
1985-1 Dec-84 232.6 109 213.4
1985-2 Mar-85 270 109.7 246.1
1985-3 Jun-85 368.8 110.6 333.5
1985-4 Sep-85 386.1 111.3 346.9
1986-1 Dec-85 274.1 112.2 244.3
1986-2 Mar-86 360.2 112.4 320.5
1986-3 Jun-86 434 113.2 383.4
1986-4 Sep-86 455.6 114.6 397.6
1987-1 Dec-86 359 115.1 311.9
1987-2 Mar-87 414.8 116 357.6
1987-3 Jun-87 534.4 117.1 456.4
1987-4 Sep-87 526 117.9 446.1
1988-1 Dec-87 385.7 118.6 325.2
1988-2 Mar-88 438 119.2 367.4
1988-3 Jun-88 599.9 120.6 497.4
1988-4 Sep-88 618.4 121.9 507.3
1989-1 Dec-88 511.6 123.3 414.9
1989-2 Mar-89 580.1 124.5 465.9
1989-3 Jun-89 727.9 125.9 578.2
1989-4 Sep-89 775.8 126.9 611.3
1990-1 Dec-89 619.5 127.9 484.4
1990-2 Mar-90 710.2 129.7 547.6
1990-3 Jun-90 858.1 131.8 651.1
1990-4 Sep-90 831.8 138 602.8
1991-1 Dec-90 623.8 140.5 444.0
1991-2 Mar-91 671 141 475.9
1991-3 Jun-91 759 141.8 535.3
1991-4 Sep-91 810.8 142.7 568.2
1992-1 Dec-91 662.4 143.8 460.6
1992-2 Mar-92 774.1 144.7 535.0
1992-3 Jun-92 890.5 145.6 611.6
1992-4 Sep-92 996.2 146.5 680.0