FINANCIAL INVESTMENT ANALYSIS

JAMUNA OIL COMPANY LTD

Global Economy Analysis
The Tech Invasion

FACTS
GDP of Influencing Countries
The Evolution of Money

FACTS
US GDP
US GDP (IN BILLION DOLLAR)
US GDP (In Billion Dollar)

22500
21500
20500
19500
18500
17500
16500
15500
14500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Population(million) 158 160 162 163 165

GDP per capita(USD) 1,093 1,220 1,372 1,521 1,650

Economic Growth (GDP, 6.1 6.6 7.1 7.3 7.9

annual variation in %)

Industrial Production 8.7 11.8 13.1 14.6 14.8

Inflation rate 6.1 6.1 5.0 5.8 5.3

International Reserve 22.4 27.9 32.1 33.2 32.0

Macro Economy Analysis
Economic Growth of the country

GDP Growth Rate of Bangladesh

8.50%
8.13%

8.00% 7.86%

7.50%
7.28%

7.11%

7.00%

6.55%

6.50%

6.06%
6.01%
6.00%

5.50%
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
Population Growth Rate

Population of Bangladesh (In Million)

169
167
167 166
165
165
163
163
161
161
159
159 158

157 156

155
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Inflation Rate

Interest Rate
Money Supply
Increasing Income level of people

Per Capita Income (In US Dollars)

2000
1906
1900
1800 1751

1700
1610
1600
1500 1465

1400
1316
1300
1184
1200
1100
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
Industry Analysis
Particulars Unit 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Proved Reserve Billion Barrels 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028
of Crude Oil

Production ‘000 Barrels Per 6.76 6.73 6.72 6.39 5.72

Day
Consumption ‘000 Barrels Per 86.76 90.77 90.76 93.00 96.00
Day
Import (Refined ‘000 Barrels Per 57.26 62.60 64.27 NA NA
Petroleum) Day

Export ‘000 Barrels Per 1.35 2.61 2.77 NA NA

Day
Porter’s Five Forces

Bargaining Power of Suppliers- High

Bargaining Power of Buyers- Moderate
Rivalry among Existing Firms-High
Threat of New Entrance-Moderate
Threat of Substitutes Products-Low

Moderate profitability
Company Analysis
VRIN Model
Competitive Advantage
V
R Apparent
Infrastructure
I
N

V
Raw Material R Not Apparent
I
N

V
Technology proportionately Apparent
R
I
N
ANSOFF Matrix

Market Penetration (Existing Market, Existing Product)

Market Development (New Market, Existing Product)
Product Development (Existing Market, New Product)
Diversification (New Market, New Product)
Calculation of Beta & CAPM
Income Statement
Pro Forma Income
Statement
Balance Sheet
Pro Forma Balance Sheet
Forecasted Calculation
Net Working Capital
DCF Valuation
DDM Model
Relative Valuation
Weighted Average Price by Relative Valuation
Weighted Average Price by using DCF, DDM
& Relative Valuation
Investment Decision

Intrinsic Value Market Price

201.88 139

Decision : Purchase the share of Jamuna Oil

Company