TIEMPO

SERIE SERIE
Año Indice Real MOVIL MOVIL
1946 106.5 250.0

1947 109.3
1948 101.2 X3 104.6 200.0
1949 100.0 X4 104.1
1950 105.9 X5 103.0
1951 103.9 X6 105.7 150.0
1952 104.0 X7 108.5
1953 114.7 X8 110.5
100.0
1954 114.2 X9 112.7
1955 115.5 X10 115.0
1956 115.3 X11 114.6 50.0
1957 115.1 X12 113.9
1958 112.7 X13 112.9
0.0
1959 111.0 X14 111.7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1960 110.5 X15 110.6
1961 109.2 X16 110.0
1962 109.7 X17 109.2
1963 109.4 X18 109.0
1964 107.0 X19 109.0
1965 109.7 X20 108.5
1966 109.4 X21 107.9
1967 107.2 X22 108.3
1968 106.4 X23 108.4
1969 108.6 X24 108.7
1970 110.4 X25 109.5 1. ENCONTRAR LA ECUACION DE TENDENCIA
1971 110.7 X26 110.2 2. ENCONTRAR LA ECUACION DE TENDENCIA
1972 111.6 X27 110.1
1973 109.9 X28 109.8
1974 108.1 X29 108.8
1975 108.6 X30 108.3
1976 105.7 X31 109.6
1977 109.4 X32 112.4
1978 116.3 X33 114.1
1979 122.1 X34 115.1
1980 117.1 X35 114.7
1981 110.8 X36 112.7
1982 107.3 X37 109.4
1983 106.1 X38 107.6
1984 105.9 X39 107.6
1985 107.7 X40 110.0
1986 111.2 X41 113.3
1987 118.9 X42 117.6
1988 122.8 X43 121.4
1989 127.5 X44 122.4
1990 126.5 X45 121.6
1991 116.3 X46 119.3
1992 114.7 X47 116.1
1993 111.3 X48 112.8
1994 111.5 X49 111.5
1995 110.3 X50 110.5
1996 109.9 X51 110.9
1997 109.6 X52 112.5
1998 113.1 X53 115.7
1999 119.5 X54 120.3
2000 126.3 X55 126.8
2001 133.0 X56 134.8
2002 142.0 X57 144.6
2003 153.1 X58 157.1
2004 168.4 X59 171.1
2005 189.1 X60 179.8
2006 202.8 X61 179.1
2007 185.5 X62 172.1
2008 149.7 X63 160.3
2009 133.6
2010 129.7
 Serie anual del Índice de Precios de la Vivienda

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55

Indice Real SERIE MOVIL

LA ECUACION DE TENDENCIA SERIE ORIGINAL

LA ECUACION DE TENDENCIA DE LA SERIE SUAVIZADA
4 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61
1. ENCONTRAR LA ECUACION DE TENDENCIA SERIE ORIGINAL

Año Indice Real Tiempo 2 ŷ = 118,77 + 0,33 X

1946 106.5 -64 97.2665734265734
1947 109.3 -62 97.9387237762238
1948 101.2 -60 98.6108741258741
1949 100.0 -58 99.2830244755245
1950 105.9 -56 99.9551748251748
1951 103.9 -54 100.627325174825
1952 104.0 -52 101.299475524476
1953 114.7 -50 101.971625874126
1954 114.2 -48 102.643776223776
1955 115.5 -46 103.315926573427
1956 115.3 -44 103.988076923077
1957 115.1 -42 104.660227272727
1958 112.7 -40 105.332377622378
1959 111.0 -38 106.004527972028
1960 110.5 -36 106.676678321678
1961 109.2 -34 107.348828671329
1962 109.7 -32 108.020979020979
1963 109.4 -30 108.693129370629
1964 107.0 -28 109.36527972028
1965 109.7 -26 110.03743006993
1966 109.4 -24 110.70958041958
1967 107.2 -22 111.381730769231
1968 106.4 -20 112.053881118881
1969 108.6 -18 112.726031468531
1970 110.4 -16 113.398181818182
1971 110.7 -14 114.070332167832
1972 111.6 -12 114.742482517483
1973 109.9 -10 115.414632867133
1974 108.1 -8 116.086783216783
1975 108.6 -6 116.758933566434
1976 105.7 -4 117.431083916084
1977 109.4 -2 118.103234265734
1978 116.3 0 118.775384615385
1979 122.1 2 119.447534965035
1980 117.1 4 120.119685314685
1981 110.8 6 120.791835664336
1982 107.3 8 121.463986013986
1983 106.1 10 122.136136363636
1984 105.9 12 122.808286713287
1985 107.7 14 123.480437062937
1986 111.2 16 124.152587412587
 1987 118.9 18 124.824737762238
1988 122.8 20 125.496888111888
1989 127.5 22 126.169038461538
1990 126.5 24 126.841188811189
1991 116.3 26 127.513339160839
1992 114.7 28 128.18548951049
1993 111.3 30 128.85763986014
1994 111.5 32 129.52979020979
1995 110.3 34 130.201940559441
1996 109.9 36 130.874090909091
1997 109.6 38 131.546241258741
1998 113.1 40 132.218391608392
1999 119.5 42 132.890541958042
2000 126.3 44 133.562692307692
2001 133.0 46 134.234842657343
2002 142.0 48 134.906993006993
2003 153.1 50 135.579143356643
2004 168.4 52 136.251293706294
2005 189.1 54 136.923444055944
2006 202.8 56 137.595594405594
2007 185.5 58 138.267744755245
2008 149.7 60 138.939895104895
2009 133.6 62 139.612045454545
2010 129.7 64 140.284195804196

Años 65
Promedio 1978

Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlac 0.61971372
Coeficiente de determi 0.38404509
R^2 ajustado 0.37426803
Error típico 16.2221164
Observaciones 65

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados F Valor crítico de F
Regresión 1 10336.8658 10336.8657972028 39.2802145 3.70685E-08
Residuos 63 16578.8948 263.157060606061
Total 64 26915.7606

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95%

Intercepción 118.775385 2.0121059 59.0303842672913 7.2553E-57 114.754512
Tiempo 2 0.33607517 0.0536228 6.26739296165061 3.70685E-08 0.22891855

ŷ = 118,77 + 0,33 X
or crítico de F

Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%

Superior 95,0%
122.796257 114.754512 122.796257
0.4432318 0.22891855 0.4432318
2. ENCONTRAR LA ECUACION DE TENDENCIA DE LA SERIE SUAVIZADA

Año SERIE MOVIL Tiempo 2 ŷ = 118,49 + 0,34 X

1948 104.58 -60 97.6054574299313
1949 104.06 -58 98.3018001057642
1950 103 -56 98.9981427815971
1951 105.7 -54 99.69448545743
1952 108.54 -52 100.390828133263
1953 110.46 -50 101.087170809096
1954 112.74 -48 101.783513484929
1955 114.96 -46 102.479856160762
1956 114.56 -44 103.176198836594
1957 113.92 -42 103.872541512427
1958 112.92 -40 104.56888418826
1959 111.7 -38 105.265226864093
1960 110.62 -36 105.961569539926
1961 109.96 -34 106.657912215759
1962 109.16 -32 107.354254891592
1963 109 -30 108.050597567425
1964 109.04 -28 108.746940243258
1965 108.54 -26 109.44328291909
1966 107.94 -24 110.139625594923
1967 108.26 -22 110.835968270756
1968 108.4 -20 111.532310946589
1969 108.66 -18 112.228653622422
1970 109.54 -16 112.924996298255
1971 110.24 -14 113.621338974088
1972 110.14 -12 114.317681649921
1973 109.78 -10 115.014024325754
1974 108.78 -8 115.710367001586
1975 108.34 -6 116.406709677419
1976 109.62 -4 117.103052353252
1977 112.42 -2 117.799395029085
1978 114.12 0 118.495737704918
1979 115.14 2 119.192080380751
1980 114.72 4 119.888423056584
1981 112.68 6 120.584765732417
1982 109.44 8 121.28110840825
1983 107.56 10 121.977451084083
1984 107.64 12 122.673793759915
1985 109.96 14 123.370136435748
1986 113.3 16 124.066479111581
1987 117.62 18 124.762821787414
1988 121.38 20 125.459164463247
 1989 122.4 22 126.15550713908
1990 121.56 24 126.851849814913
1991 119.26 26 127.548192490746
1992 116.06 28 128.244535166579
1993 112.82 30 128.940877842411
1994 111.54 32 129.637220518244
1995 110.52 34 130.333563194077
1996 110.88 36 131.02990586991
1997 112.48 38 131.726248545743
1998 115.68 40 132.422591221576
1999 120.3 42 133.118933897409
2000 126.78 44 133.815276573242
2001 134.78 46 134.511619249075
2002 144.56 48 135.207961924907
2003 157.12 50 135.90430460074
2004 171.08 52 136.600647276573
2005 179.78 54 137.296989952406
2006 179.1 56 137.993332628239
2007 172.14 58 138.689675304072
2008 160.26 60 139.386017979905

Años 61
Promedio 1978

Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación m 0.66458932
Coeficiente de determinaci 0.44167897
R^2 ajustado 0.4322159
Error típico 14.0162361
Observaciones 61

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados F
Regresión 1 9169.32894 9169.3289405394 46.6739703
Residuos 59 11590.8376 196.454873750235
Total 60 20760.1665

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad

Intercepción 118.495738 1.79459514 66.029231525461 5.25993E-57
Tiempo 2 0.34817134 0.05096308 6.83183506013996 5.20726E-09

ŷ = 118,49 + 0,34 X
Valor crítico de F
5.20726E-09

Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%

Superior 95,0%
114.904761 122.086714 114.904761 122.086714
0.24619446 0.45014822 0.24619446 0.45014822